Western Conference · 2026-27

San Antonio Spurs SAS

8–2

2026-27 record

1698

Elo rating

with the forecast of Nov 7

117.4

Offensive rating

last 10 games

107.2

Defensive rating

last 10, lower is better

99.9

Pace

possessions per game

Hover the ball to see a season.

Every graded SAS game, one dot each, oldest at the center. 255 of 357 forecasts picked the winner (colored dots).

Elo rating, recent games

Pregame Elo stored with each of SAS's last 82 forecasts. Dashed: 1500, the long-run average.

Elo rating recorded with each team's most recent forecast. Higher is stronger; 1500 is the long-run average. SAS ranks 1 of 30.

Upcoming

Schedule

Nov 9 9:00 PM ET

SAS San Antonio Spurs 8–2 –

@PHX Phoenix Suns 3–5 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 11 8:00 PM ET

SAS San Antonio Spurs 8–2 –

@CHI Chicago Bulls 1–8 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 13 9:30 PM ET

GSW Golden State Warriors 7–3 –

@SAS San Antonio Spurs 8–2 –

Forecast coming Details

Recent results

Predictability

How closely the forecasts tracked SAS games. A team can be hard for this model to forecast whether it is good or bad: misses come from the model's limits, roster changes, missing information and ordinary game-to-game variation. Compare all 30 teams

2026-27 (in progress)

Small sample: 10 games. These figures are a running log, not a measurement, and no ranking is shown.

8.5 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 6.6 to 10.4

+1.5

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -3.2 to 5.9

9.6 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.7

90%

winner picked

10 games involving SAS

8 / 7.3

actual / expected wins

gap +0.7

0.103

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 10 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	SAS win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 7	at POR	68%	115–109	W 125–103	✓correct	+16
Nov 6	at SAC	77%	121–111	W 124–109	✓correct	+5
Nov 4	vs DAL	75%	117–108	W 112–111	✓correct	−8
Nov 2	vs UTA	82%	123–110	W 119–97	✓correct	+9
Oct 31	vs MIN	69%	117–110	W 121–111	✓correct	+3
Oct 28	at UTA	85%	127–112	W 117–111	✓correct	−9
Oct 27	vs SAC	85%	123–108	W 130–103	✓correct	+12
Oct 24	at DAL	78%	123–112	W 122–106	✓correct	+5
Oct 23	vs HOU	59%	112–109	L 110–114	✗missed	−7
Oct 20	vs OKC	50%	111–112	L 104–116	✓correct	−11

2025-26

Across 103 graded games, SAS finished an average of 3.8 points better than the forecast margin (90% interval +1.7 to +5.8).

10.4 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.1 to 11.8; 5th smallest of 30

+3.8

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval 1.7 to 5.8

12.8 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.4

68%

winner picked

103 games involving SAS

74 / 62.7

actual / expected wins

gap +11.3

0.208

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 103 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	SAS win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Jun 10 PO	at NYK	17%	95–109	L 106–107	✓correct	+13
Jun 8 PO	at NYK	30%	106–112	W 115–111	✗missed	+10
Jun 5 PO	vs NYK	33%	105–108	L 104–105	✓correct	+2
Jun 3 PO	vs NYK	78%	110–99	L 95–105	✗missed	−21
May 30 PO	at OKC	67%	109–106	W 111–103	✓correct	+5
May 28 PO	vs OKC	82%	110–97	W 118–91	✓correct	+14
May 26 PO	at OKC	17%	101–115	L 114–127	✓correct	+1
May 24 PO	vs OKC	74%	113–104	W 103–82	✓correct	+12
May 22 PO	vs OKC	61%	111–107	L 108–123	✗missed	−19
May 20 PO	at OKC	24%	102–112	L 113–122	✓correct	+1
May 18 PO	at OKC	24%	101–111	W 122–115	✗missed	+17
May 15 PO	at MIN	47%	107–108	W 139–109	✗missed	+31
May 12 PO	vs MIN	89%	120–102	W 126–97	✓correct	+11
May 10 PO	at MIN	53%	110–109	L 109–114	✗missed	−6
May 8 PO	at MIN	53%	110–109	W 115–108	✓correct	+6
May 6 PO	vs MIN	78%	117–106	W 133–95	✓correct	+27
May 4 PO	vs MIN	80%	117–105	L 102–104	✗missed	−14
Apr 28 PO	vs POR	69%	109–102	W 114–95	✓correct	+12
Apr 26 PO	at POR	55%	109–107	W 114–93	✓correct	+19
Apr 24 PO	at POR	45%	104–106	W 120–108	✗missed	+14
Apr 21 PO	vs POR	74%	114–105	L 103–106	✗missed	−12
Apr 19 PO	vs POR	83%	116–102	W 111–98	✓correct	−1
Apr 12	vs DEN	89%	127–109	L 118–128	✗missed	−28
Apr 10	vs DAL	94%	129–105	W 139–120	✓correct	−5
Apr 8	vs POR	76%	121–111	W 112–101	✓correct	+1
Apr 6	vs PHI	78%	125–114	W 115–102	✓correct	+2
Apr 4	at DEN	53%	119–118	L 134–136	✗missed	−3
Apr 2	at LAC	53%	113–112	W 118–99	✓correct	+18
Apr 1	at GSW	83%	124–110	W 127–113	✓correct	±0
Mar 30	vs CHI	82%	128–115	W 129–114	✓correct	+2
Mar 28	at MIL	81%	120–107	W 127–95	✓correct	+19
Mar 25	at MEM	83%	127–113	W 123–98	✓correct	+11
Mar 23	at MIA	61%	120–116	W 136–111	✓correct	+21
Mar 21	vs IND	85%	123–108	W 134–119	✓correct	±0
Mar 19	vs PHX	76%	121–111	W 101–100	✓correct	−9
Mar 17	at SAC	81%	125–112	W 132–104	✓correct	+15
Mar 16	at LAC	64%	116–111	W 119–115	✓correct	−1
Mar 14	vs CHA	53%	115–114	W 115–102	✓correct	+12
Mar 12	vs DEN	64%	120–115	L 131–136	✗missed	−10
Mar 10	vs BOS	53%	110–109	W 125–116	✓correct	+8
Mar 8	vs HOU	61%	115–111	W 145–120	✓correct	+21
Mar 6	vs LAC	74%	119–110	W 116–112	✓correct	−5
Mar 5	vs DET	61%	116–112	W 121–106	✓correct	+11
Mar 3	at PHI	74%	122–113	W 131–91	✓correct	+31
Mar 1	at NYK	56%	117–115	L 89–114	✗missed	−27
Feb 26	at BKN	83%	125–111	W 126–110	✓correct	+2
Feb 25	at TOR	61%	118–114	W 110–107	✓correct	−1
Feb 23	at DET	41%	115–118	W 114–103	✗missed	+14
Feb 21	vs SAC	92%	124–103	W 139–122	✓correct	−4
Feb 19	vs PHX	69%	117–110	W 121–94	✓correct	+20
Feb 11	at GSW	53%	115–114	W 126–113	✓correct	+12
Feb 10	at LAL	66%	118–112	W 136–108	✓correct	+22
Feb 7	vs DAL	74%	122–113	W 138–125	✓correct	+4
Feb 5	at DAL	53%	116–115	W 135–123	✓correct	+11
Feb 4	vs OKC	76%	119–109	W 116–106	✓correct	±0
Feb 1	vs ORL	67%	116–110	W 112–103	✓correct	+3
Jan 31	at CHA	47%	109–110	L 106–111	✓correct	−4
Jan 28	at HOU	44%	108–110	W 111–99	✗missed	+14
Jan 25	vs NOP	80%	121–109	L 95–104	✗missed	−21
Jan 22	at UTA	78%	122–111	W 126–109	✓correct	+6
Jan 20	at HOU	44%	107–109	L 106–111	✓correct	−3
Jan 19	vs UTA	83%	124–110	W 123–110	✓correct	−1
Jan 17	vs MIN	53%	116–115	W 126–123	✓correct	+2
Jan 15	vs MIL	67%	117–111	W 119–101	✓correct	+12
Jan 13	at OKC	20%	110–122	L 98–119	✓correct	−9
Jan 11	at MIN	47%	117–118	L 103–104	✓correct	±0
Jan 10	at BOS	47%	114–115	W 100–95	✗missed	+6
Jan 7	vs LAL	69%	120–113	W 107–91	✓correct	+9
Jan 6	at MEM	66%	121–115	L 105–106	✗missed	−7
Jan 3	vs POR	74%	121–112	L 110–115	✗missed	−14
Jan 2	at IND	78%	124–113	W 123–113	✓correct	−1
Dec 31	vs NYK	59%	119–116	W 134–132	✓correct	−1
Dec 29	vs CLE	69%	121–114	L 101–113	✗missed	−19
Dec 27	vs UTA	82%	127–114	L 114–127	✗missed	−26
Dec 25	at OKC	19%	113–126	W 117–102	✗missed	+28
Dec 23	vs OKC	69%	120–113	W 130–110	✓correct	+13
Dec 21	at WAS	86%	127–111	W 124–113	✓correct	−5
Dec 19	at ATL	58%	122–119	W 126–98	✓correct	+25
Dec 18	vs WAS	86%	126–110	W 119–94	✓correct	+9
Dec 10	at LAL	36%	117–122	W 132–119	✗missed	+18
Dec 8	at NOP	76%	125–115	W 135–132	✓correct	−7
Dec 5	at CLE	44%	114–116	L 117–130	✓correct	−11
Dec 3	at ORL	22%	112–123	W 114–112	✗missed	+13
Dec 2	vs MEM	53%	117–116	W 126–119	✓correct	+6
Nov 30	at MIN	31%	113–120	L 112–125	✓correct	−6
Nov 28	at DEN	29%	116–124	W 139–136	✗missed	+11
Nov 26	at POR	44%	117–119	W 115–102	✗missed	+15
Nov 23	at PHX	29%	113–121	L 102–111	✓correct	−1
Nov 20	vs ATL	47%	115–116	W 135–126	✗missed	+10
Nov 18	vs MEM	69%	120–113	W 111–101	✓correct	+3
Nov 16	vs SAC	69%	121–114	W 123–110	✓correct	+6
Nov 14	vs GSW	53%	118–117	L 108–109	✗missed	−2
Nov 12	vs GSW	59%	117–114	L 120–125	✗missed	−8
Nov 10	at CHI	41%	115–118	W 121–117	✗missed	+7
Nov 8	vs NOP	86%	122–106	W 126–119	✓correct	−9
Nov 7	vs HOU	36%	110–115	W 121–110	✗missed	+16
Nov 5	at LAL	41%	114–117	L 116–118	✓correct	+1
Nov 2	at PHX	61%	118–114	L 118–130	✗missed	−16
Oct 30	vs MIA	64%	119–114	W 107–101	✓correct	+1
Oct 27	vs TOR	67%	120–114	W 121–103	✓correct	+12
Oct 26	vs BKN	78%	120–109	W 118–107	✓correct	±0
Oct 24	at NOP	66%	120–114	W 120–116	✓correct	−2
Oct 22	at DAL	44%	116–118	W 125–92	✗missed	+35

2024-25

10.7 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.0 to 12.4; 11th smallest of 30

−0.5

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -3.2 to 2.1

14.0 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

65%

winner picked

80 games involving SAS

33 / 35.8

actual / expected wins

gap −2.8

0.219

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 80 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	SAS win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 13	vs TOR	62%	115–111	W 125–118	✓correct	+3
Apr 11	at PHX	46%	111–112	L 98–117	✓correct	−18
Apr 9	at GSW	18%	109–123	W 114–111	✗missed	+17
Apr 8	at LAC	23%	110–121	L 117–122	✓correct	+6
Apr 6	at POR	46%	114–115	L 109–120	✓correct	−10
Apr 4	vs CLE	32%	111–119	L 113–114	✓correct	+7
Apr 2	at DEN	21%	112–124	W 113–106	✗missed	+19
Apr 1	vs ORL	54%	115–114	L 105–116	✗missed	−12
Mar 30	vs GSW	49%	115–116	L 106–148	✓correct	−41
Mar 29	vs BOS	29%	108–117	L 111–121	✓correct	−1
Mar 27	at CLE	25%	112–122	L 116–124	✓correct	+2
Mar 25	at DET	21%	116–128	L 96–122	✓correct	−14
Mar 23	at TOR	46%	114–115	W 123–89	✗missed	+35
Mar 21	vs PHI	62%	120–116	W 128–120	✓correct	+4
Mar 19	vs NYK	41%	113–117	W 120–105	✗missed	+19
Mar 17	at LAL	36%	113–118	L 109–125	✓correct	−11
Mar 15	vs NOP	62%	118–114	W 119–115	✓correct	±0
Mar 14	vs CHA	69%	122–115	L 134–145	✗missed	−18
Mar 12	vs DAL	59%	122–119	W 126–116	✓correct	+7
Mar 10	vs DAL	62%	121–117	L 129–133	✗missed	−8
Mar 9	at MIN	23%	112–123	L 124–141	✓correct	−6
Mar 7	at SAC	27%	113–122	L 109–127	✓correct	−9
Mar 4	vs BKN	59%	113–110	W 127–113	✓correct	+11
Mar 2	vs OKC	32%	113–121	L 132–146	✓correct	−6
Mar 1	at MEM	27%	115–124	W 130–128	✗missed	+11
Feb 26	at HOU	29%	110–118	L 106–118	✓correct	−4
Feb 25	at NOP	54%	119–117	L 103–109	✗missed	−8
Feb 23	at NOP	56%	119–116	L 96–114	✗missed	−21
Feb 21	vs DET	44%	117–120	L 110–125	✓correct	−12
Feb 20	vs PHX	59%	119–116	W 120–109	✓correct	+8
Feb 12	at BOS	21%	110–122	L 103–116	✓correct	−1
Feb 10	at WAS	61%	121–116	W 131–121	✓correct	+5
Feb 8	at ORL	46%	114–115	L 111–112	✓correct	±0
Feb 7	at CHA	56%	117–114	L 116–117	✗missed	−4
Feb 5	at ATL	46%	117–118	W 126–125	✗missed	+2
Feb 3	at MEM	23%	114–125	L 109–128	✓correct	−8
Feb 1	vs MIA	49%	117–118	L 103–105	✓correct	−1
Jan 31	vs MIL	36%	116–122	W 144–118	✗missed	+32
Jan 29	vs LAC	39%	111–116	L 116–128	✓correct	−7
Jan 19	at MIA	43%	111–113	L 107–128	✓correct	−19
Jan 17	vs MEM	49%	116–117	L 112–140	✓correct	−27
Jan 15	vs MEM	49%	116–117	L 115–129	✓correct	−13
Jan 13	at LAL	38%	109–113	W 126–102	✗missed	+28
Jan 8	at MIL	31%	111–118	L 105–121	✓correct	−9
Jan 6	at CHI	41%	112–115	L 110–114	✓correct	−1
Jan 4	vs DEN	57%	118–116	L 111–122	✗missed	−13
Jan 3	at DEN	33%	114–120	W 113–110	✗missed	+9
Dec 31	vs LAC	46%	112–114	W 122–86	✗missed	+38
Dec 29	at MIN	36%	109–114	L 110–112	✓correct	+3
Dec 27	at BKN	59%	114–110	W 96–87	✓correct	+5
Dec 25	at NYK	21%	110–122	L 114–117	✓correct	+9
Dec 23	at PHI	51%	111–110	L 106–111	✗missed	−6
Dec 21	vs POR	67%	119–113	W 114–94	✓correct	+14
Dec 19	vs ATL	49%	116–117	W 133–126	✗missed	+8
Dec 15	vs MIN	49%	111–112	L 92–106	✓correct	−13
Dec 13	at POR	38%	113–117	W 118–116	✗missed	+6
Dec 8	vs NOP	75%	121–111	W 121–116	✓correct	−5
Dec 6	vs SAC	46%	112–114	L 113–140	✓correct	−25
Dec 5	vs CHI	59%	119–116	L 124–139	✗missed	−18
Dec 3	at PHX	43%	114–116	L 93–104	✓correct	−9
Dec 1	at SAC	56%	113–110	W 127–125	✓correct	−1
Nov 27	vs LAL	59%	117–114	L 101–119	✗missed	−21
Nov 26	at UTA	61%	119–114	W 128–115	✓correct	+8
Nov 23	vs GSW	44%	115–118	W 104–94	✗missed	+13
Nov 21	vs UTA	69%	115–108	W 126–118	✓correct	+1
Nov 19	vs OKC	39%	108–113	W 110–104	✗missed	+11
Nov 16	at DAL	25%	109–119	L 93–110	✓correct	−7
Nov 15	vs LAL	49%	114–115	L 115–120	✓correct	−4
Nov 13	vs WAS	77%	119–108	W 139–130	✓correct	−2
Nov 11	vs SAC	41%	108–112	W 116–96	✗missed	+24
Nov 9	vs UTA	64%	113–108	L 110–111	✗missed	−6
Nov 7	vs POR	59%	110–107	W 118–105	✓correct	+10
Nov 6	at HOU	31%	107–114	L 100–127	✓correct	−20
Nov 4	at LAC	36%	106–111	L 104–113	✓correct	−4
Nov 2	vs MIN	49%	109–110	W 113–103	✗missed	+11
Oct 31	at UTA	51%	113–112	W 106–88	✓correct	+17
Oct 30	at OKC	21%	105–117	L 93–105	✓correct	±0
Oct 28	vs HOU	49%	115–116	L 101–106	✓correct	−4
Oct 26	vs HOU	49%	116–117	W 109–106	✗missed	+4
Oct 24	at DAL	23%	102–113	L 109–120	✓correct	±0

2023-24

10.7 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.2 to 12.3; 10th smallest of 30

−0.2

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.9 to 2.2

14.1 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.3

74%

winner picked

82 games involving SAS

22 / 31.3

actual / expected wins

gap −9.3

0.202

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	SAS win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 14	vs DET	57%	110–109	W 123–95	✓correct	+27
Apr 12	vs DEN	33%	107–118	W 121–120	✗missed	+12
Apr 10	at OKC	25%	108–119	L 89–127	✓correct	−27
Apr 9	at MEM	57%	115–109	W 102–87	✓correct	+9
Apr 7	vs PHI	49%	108–111	L 126–133	✓correct	−4
Apr 5	at NOP	27%	102–112	W 111–109	✗missed	+12
Apr 2	at DEN	19%	101–116	L 105–110	✓correct	+10
Mar 31	vs GSW	39%	107–115	L 113–117	✓correct	+4
Mar 29	vs NYK	41%	102–109	W 130–126	✗missed	+11
Mar 27	at UTA	39%	114–117	W 118–111	✗missed	+10
Mar 25	vs PHX	37%	108–117	W 104–102	✗missed	+11
Mar 23	vs PHX	45%	111–116	L 106–131	✓correct	−20
Mar 22	vs MEM	67%	112–106	L 97–99	✗missed	−8
Mar 19	vs DAL	47%	112–116	L 107–113	✓correct	−2
Mar 17	vs BKN	47%	111–115	W 122–115	✗missed	+11
Mar 15	vs DEN	41%	111–118	L 106–117	✓correct	−4
Mar 12	vs HOU	51%	116–118	L 101–103	✓correct	±0
Mar 11	vs GSW	45%	115–120	L 102–112	✓correct	−5
Mar 9	at GSW	32%	111–118	W 126–113	✗missed	+20
Mar 7	at SAC	24%	110–122	L 129–131	✓correct	+10
Mar 5	at HOU	37%	114–118	L 101–114	✓correct	−9
Mar 3	vs IND	39%	115–123	W 117–105	✗missed	+20
Feb 29	vs OKC	33%	111–122	W 132–118	✗missed	+25
Feb 27	at MIN	21%	107–121	L 105–114	✓correct	+5
Feb 25	at UTA	30%	114–122	L 109–128	✓correct	−11
Feb 23	at LAL	24%	110–122	L 118–123	✓correct	+7
Feb 22	at SAC	27%	111–121	L 122–127	✓correct	+5
Feb 14	at DAL	27%	111–121	L 93–116	✓correct	−13
Feb 12	at TOR	32%	112–119	W 122–99	✗missed	+30
Feb 10	at BKN	30%	111–119	L 103–123	✓correct	−12
Feb 8	at ORL	27%	109–119	L 111–127	✓correct	−6
Feb 7	at MIA	30%	109–117	L 104–116	✓correct	−4
Feb 3	vs CLE	43%	112–118	L 101–117	✓correct	−10
Feb 2	vs NOP	43%	113–119	L 113–114	✓correct	+5
Jan 31	vs ORL	45%	111–116	L 98–108	✓correct	−5
Jan 29	vs WAS	61%	120–117	L 113–118	✗missed	−8
Jan 27	vs MIN	47%	115–119	W 113–112	✗missed	+5
Jan 26	vs POR	68%	120–113	W 116–100	✓correct	+9
Jan 24	vs OKC	45%	116–121	L 114–140	✓correct	−21
Jan 22	at PHI	27%	108–118	L 123–133	✓correct	±0
Jan 20	at WAS	35%	115–120	W 131–127	✗missed	+9
Jan 19	at CHA	41%	113–115	L 120–124	✓correct	−2
Jan 17	at BOS	22%	111–124	L 98–117	✓correct	−6
Jan 15	at ATL	32%	116–123	L 99–109	✓correct	−3
Jan 13	vs CHI	43%	113–119	L 116–122	✓correct	±0
Jan 12	vs CHA	67%	118–112	W 135–99	✓correct	+30
Jan 10	at DET	43%	118–119	W 130–108	✗missed	+23
Jan 7	at CLE	18%	110–126	L 115–117	✓correct	+14
Jan 4	vs MIL	31%	111–123	L 121–125	✓correct	+8
Jan 2	at MEM	35%	114–119	L 98–106	✓correct	−3
Dec 31	vs BOS	43%	113–119	L 101–134	✓correct	−27
Dec 29	at POR	41%	118–120	L 128–134	✓correct	−4
Dec 28	at POR	34%	115–121	W 118–105	✗missed	+19
Dec 26	vs UTA	57%	116–115	L 118–130	✗missed	−13
Dec 23	at DAL	30%	112–120	L 119–144	✓correct	−17
Dec 21	at CHI	24%	111–123	L 95–114	✓correct	−7
Dec 19	at MIL	25%	111–122	L 119–132	✓correct	−2
Dec 17	vs NOP	45%	115–120	L 110–146	✓correct	−31
Dec 15	vs LAL	45%	114–119	W 129–115	✗missed	+19
Dec 13	vs LAL	45%	114–119	L 119–122	✓correct	+2
Dec 11	at HOU	22%	107–120	L 82–93	✓correct	+2
Dec 8	vs CHI	57%	113–112	L 112–121	✗missed	−10
Dec 6	at MIN	19%	107–122	L 94–102	✓correct	+7
Dec 1	at NOP	21%	111–125	L 106–121	✓correct	−1
Nov 30	vs ATL	51%	117–119	L 135–137	✓correct	±0
Nov 26	at DEN	21%	107–121	L 120–132	✓correct	+2
Nov 24	at GSW	27%	109–119	L 112–118	✓correct	+4
Nov 22	vs LAC	47%	114–118	L 102–109	✓correct	−3
Nov 20	vs LAC	45%	113–118	L 99–124	✓correct	−20
Nov 18	vs MEM	49%	114–117	L 108–120	✓correct	−9
Nov 17	vs SAC	41%	113–120	L 120–129	✓correct	−2
Nov 14	at OKC	28%	110–119	L 87–123	✓correct	−27
Nov 12	vs MIA	51%	115–117	L 113–118	✓correct	−3
Nov 10	vs MIN	45%	114–119	L 110–117	✓correct	−2
Nov 8	at NYK	25%	107–118	L 105–126	✓correct	−10
Nov 6	at IND	35%	115–120	L 111–152	✓correct	−36
Nov 5	vs TOR	53%	115–116	L 116–123	✓correct	−6
Nov 2	at PHX	32%	112–119	W 132–121	✗missed	+18
Oct 31	at PHX	28%	111–120	W 115–114	✗missed	+10
Oct 29	at LAC	34%	115–121	L 83–123	✓correct	−34
Oct 27	vs HOU	57%	119–118	W 126–122	✓correct	+3
Oct 25	vs DAL	43%	117–123	L 119–126	✓correct	−1

2022-23

12.2 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.5 to 13.8; 30th smallest of 30

−1.8

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -4.6 to 0.8

15.2 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 10.3

77%

winner picked

82 games involving SAS

22 / 25.4

actual / expected wins

gap −3.4

0.185

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	SAS win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 9	at DAL	26%	114–124	W 138–117	✗missed	+31
Apr 8	vs MIN	17%	109–124	L 131–151	✓correct	−5
Apr 6	vs POR	32%	116–123	W 129–127	✗missed	+9
Apr 4	at PHX	13%	107–125	L 94–115	✓correct	−3
Apr 2	at SAC	10%	103–124	W 142–134	✗missed	+29
Mar 31	at GSW	13%	105–123	L 115–130	✓correct	+3
Mar 29	vs UTA	20%	113–126	L 117–128	✓correct	+2
Mar 26	at BOS	13%	104–122	L 93–137	✓correct	−26
Mar 24	at WAS	40%	115–119	L 124–136	✓correct	−8
Mar 22	at MIL	12%	105–124	L 94–130	✓correct	−17
Mar 21	at NOP	24%	112–123	L 84–119	✓correct	−24
Mar 19	vs ATL	24%	115–126	W 126–118	✗missed	+19
Mar 17	vs MEM	22%	109–121	L 120–126	✓correct	+6
Mar 15	vs DAL	22%	113–125	L 128–137	✓correct	+3
Mar 14	vs ORL	24%	111–122	W 132–114	✗missed	+29
Mar 12	vs OKC	32%	114–121	L 90–102	✓correct	−5
Mar 10	vs DEN	24%	109–120	W 128–120	✗missed	+19
Mar 5	at HOU	37%	112–117	L 110–142	✓correct	−27
Mar 4	vs HOU	47%	113–114	L 110–122	✓correct	−11
Mar 2	vs IND	30%	113–121	W 110–99	✗missed	+19
Feb 28	at UTA	30%	110–118	W 102–94	✗missed	+16
Feb 25	at UTA	24%	111–122	L 102–118	✓correct	−5
Feb 23	at DAL	17%	107–122	L 116–142	✓correct	−11
Feb 15	at CHA	40%	113–117	L 110–120	✓correct	−6
Feb 13	at CLE	12%	101–120	L 109–117	✓correct	+11
Feb 11	at ATL	16%	108–124	L 106–125	✓correct	−3
Feb 10	at DET	26%	111–121	L 131–138	✓correct	+3
Feb 8	at TOR	13%	105–123	L 98–112	✓correct	+4
Feb 6	at CHI	16%	105–121	L 104–128	✓correct	−8
Feb 3	vs PHI	42%	118–121	L 125–137	✓correct	−9
Feb 1	vs SAC	40%	119–123	L 109–119	✓correct	−6
Jan 30	vs WAS	32%	118–125	L 106–127	✓correct	−14
Jan 28	vs PHX	26%	114–124	L 118–128	✓correct	±0
Jan 26	at LAC	22%	111–123	L 100–138	✓correct	−26
Jan 25	at LAL	24%	114–125	L 104–113	✓correct	+2
Jan 23	at POR	32%	113–120	L 127–147	✓correct	−13
Jan 20	vs LAC	35%	116–122	L 126–131	✓correct	+1
Jan 17	vs BKN	37%	116–121	W 106–98	✗missed	+13
Jan 15	vs SAC	40%	120–124	L 119–132	✓correct	−9
Jan 13	vs GSW	40%	116–120	L 113–144	✓correct	−27
Jan 11	at MEM	20%	108–121	L 129–135	✓correct	+7
Jan 9	at MEM	19%	106–120	L 113–121	✓correct	+6
Jan 7	vs BOS	22%	113–125	L 116–121	✓correct	+7
Jan 6	vs DET	55%	118–116	W 121–109	✓correct	+10
Jan 4	at NYK	16%	104–120	L 114–117	✓correct	+13
Jan 2	at BKN	22%	107–119	L 103–139	✓correct	−24
Dec 31	vs DAL	35%	111–117	L 125–126	✓correct	+5
Dec 29	vs NYK	45%	112–114	W 122–115	✗missed	+9
Dec 27	at OKC	32%	113–120	L 114–130	✓correct	−9
Dec 26	vs UTA	30%	113–121	W 126–122	✗missed	+12
Dec 23	at ORL	30%	110–118	L 113–133	✓correct	−12
Dec 22	at NOP	19%	104–118	L 117–126	✓correct	+5
Dec 19	at HOU	35%	107–113	W 124–105	✗missed	+25
Dec 17	vs MIA	40%	110–114	L 101–111	✓correct	−6
Dec 14	vs POR	42%	114–117	L 112–128	✓correct	−13
Dec 12	vs CLE	35%	107–113	W 112–111	✗missed	+7
Dec 10	at MIA	20%	106–119	W 115–111	✗missed	+17
Dec 8	vs HOU	37%	113–118	W 118–109	✗missed	+14
Dec 4	vs PHX	30%	115–123	L 95–133	✓correct	−30
Dec 2	vs NOP	28%	111–120	L 99–117	✓correct	−9
Nov 30	at OKC	47%	113–114	L 111–119	✓correct	−7
Nov 26	vs LAL	37%	111–116	L 138–143	✓correct	±0
Nov 25	vs LAL	45%	115–117	L 94–105	✓correct	−9
Nov 23	vs NOP	32%	111–118	L 110–129	✓correct	−12
Nov 20	at LAL	30%	109–117	L 92–123	✓correct	−23
Nov 19	at LAC	26%	105–115	L 97–119	✓correct	−12
Nov 17	at SAC	19%	107–121	L 112–130	✓correct	−4
Nov 15	at POR	32%	106–113	L 110–117	✓correct	±0
Nov 14	at GSW	40%	109–113	L 95–132	✓correct	−33
Nov 11	vs MIL	32%	107–114	W 111–93	✗missed	+25
Nov 9	vs MEM	22%	109–121	L 122–124	✓correct	+10
Nov 7	vs DEN	30%	109–117	L 109–115	✓correct	+2
Nov 5	at DEN	45%	114–116	L 101–126	✓correct	−23
Nov 4	vs LAC	45%	108–110	L 106–113	✓correct	−5
Nov 2	vs TOR	32%	108–115	L 100–143	✓correct	−36
Oct 30	vs MIN	42%	110–113	W 107–98	✗missed	+12
Oct 28	vs CHI	60%	112–108	W 129–124	✓correct	+1
Oct 26	at MIN	47%	109–110	L 122–134	✓correct	−11
Oct 24	at MIN	53%	112–111	W 115–106	✓correct	+8
Oct 22	at PHI	47%	109–110	W 114–105	✗missed	+10
Oct 21	at IND	65%	118–112	W 137–134	✓correct	−3
Oct 19	vs CHA	55%	115–113	L 102–129	✗missed	−29

2022-23 to 2026-27

10.9 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.1 to 11.6; 13th smallest of 30

+0.6

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -0.7 to 1.8

14.0 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

71%

winner picked

357 games involving SAS

159 / 162.5

actual / expected wins

gap −3.5

0.201

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 357 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	SAS win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 7	at POR	68%	115–109	W 125–103	✓correct	+16
Nov 6	at SAC	77%	121–111	W 124–109	✓correct	+5
Nov 4	vs DAL	75%	117–108	W 112–111	✓correct	−8
Nov 2	vs UTA	82%	123–110	W 119–97	✓correct	+9
Oct 31	vs MIN	69%	117–110	W 121–111	✓correct	+3
Oct 28	at UTA	85%	127–112	W 117–111	✓correct	−9
Oct 27	vs SAC	85%	123–108	W 130–103	✓correct	+12
Oct 24	at DAL	78%	123–112	W 122–106	✓correct	+5
Oct 23	vs HOU	59%	112–109	L 110–114	✗missed	−7
Oct 20	vs OKC	50%	111–112	L 104–116	✓correct	−11
Jun 10 PO	at NYK	17%	95–109	L 106–107	✓correct	+13
Jun 8 PO	at NYK	30%	106–112	W 115–111	✗missed	+10
Jun 5 PO	vs NYK	33%	105–108	L 104–105	✓correct	+2
Jun 3 PO	vs NYK	78%	110–99	L 95–105	✗missed	−21
May 30 PO	at OKC	67%	109–106	W 111–103	✓correct	+5
May 28 PO	vs OKC	82%	110–97	W 118–91	✓correct	+14
May 26 PO	at OKC	17%	101–115	L 114–127	✓correct	+1
May 24 PO	vs OKC	74%	113–104	W 103–82	✓correct	+12
May 22 PO	vs OKC	61%	111–107	L 108–123	✗missed	−19
May 20 PO	at OKC	24%	102–112	L 113–122	✓correct	+1
May 18 PO	at OKC	24%	101–111	W 122–115	✗missed	+17
May 15 PO	at MIN	47%	107–108	W 139–109	✗missed	+31
May 12 PO	vs MIN	89%	120–102	W 126–97	✓correct	+11
May 10 PO	at MIN	53%	110–109	L 109–114	✗missed	−6
May 8 PO	at MIN	53%	110–109	W 115–108	✓correct	+6
May 6 PO	vs MIN	78%	117–106	W 133–95	✓correct	+27
May 4 PO	vs MIN	80%	117–105	L 102–104	✗missed	−14
Apr 28 PO	vs POR	69%	109–102	W 114–95	✓correct	+12
Apr 26 PO	at POR	55%	109–107	W 114–93	✓correct	+19
Apr 24 PO	at POR	45%	104–106	W 120–108	✗missed	+14
Apr 21 PO	vs POR	74%	114–105	L 103–106	✗missed	−12
Apr 19 PO	vs POR	83%	116–102	W 111–98	✓correct	−1
Apr 12	vs DEN	89%	127–109	L 118–128	✗missed	−28
Apr 10	vs DAL	94%	129–105	W 139–120	✓correct	−5
Apr 8	vs POR	76%	121–111	W 112–101	✓correct	+1
Apr 6	vs PHI	78%	125–114	W 115–102	✓correct	+2
Apr 4	at DEN	53%	119–118	L 134–136	✗missed	−3
Apr 2	at LAC	53%	113–112	W 118–99	✓correct	+18
Apr 1	at GSW	83%	124–110	W 127–113	✓correct	±0
Mar 30	vs CHI	82%	128–115	W 129–114	✓correct	+2
Mar 28	at MIL	81%	120–107	W 127–95	✓correct	+19
Mar 25	at MEM	83%	127–113	W 123–98	✓correct	+11
Mar 23	at MIA	61%	120–116	W 136–111	✓correct	+21
Mar 21	vs IND	85%	123–108	W 134–119	✓correct	±0
Mar 19	vs PHX	76%	121–111	W 101–100	✓correct	−9
Mar 17	at SAC	81%	125–112	W 132–104	✓correct	+15
Mar 16	at LAC	64%	116–111	W 119–115	✓correct	−1
Mar 14	vs CHA	53%	115–114	W 115–102	✓correct	+12
Mar 12	vs DEN	64%	120–115	L 131–136	✗missed	−10
Mar 10	vs BOS	53%	110–109	W 125–116	✓correct	+8
Mar 8	vs HOU	61%	115–111	W 145–120	✓correct	+21
Mar 6	vs LAC	74%	119–110	W 116–112	✓correct	−5
Mar 5	vs DET	61%	116–112	W 121–106	✓correct	+11
Mar 3	at PHI	74%	122–113	W 131–91	✓correct	+31
Mar 1	at NYK	56%	117–115	L 89–114	✗missed	−27
Feb 26	at BKN	83%	125–111	W 126–110	✓correct	+2
Feb 25	at TOR	61%	118–114	W 110–107	✓correct	−1
Feb 23	at DET	41%	115–118	W 114–103	✗missed	+14
Feb 21	vs SAC	92%	124–103	W 139–122	✓correct	−4
Feb 19	vs PHX	69%	117–110	W 121–94	✓correct	+20
Feb 11	at GSW	53%	115–114	W 126–113	✓correct	+12
Feb 10	at LAL	66%	118–112	W 136–108	✓correct	+22
Feb 7	vs DAL	74%	122–113	W 138–125	✓correct	+4
Feb 5	at DAL	53%	116–115	W 135–123	✓correct	+11
Feb 4	vs OKC	76%	119–109	W 116–106	✓correct	±0
Feb 1	vs ORL	67%	116–110	W 112–103	✓correct	+3
Jan 31	at CHA	47%	109–110	L 106–111	✓correct	−4
Jan 28	at HOU	44%	108–110	W 111–99	✗missed	+14
Jan 25	vs NOP	80%	121–109	L 95–104	✗missed	−21
Jan 22	at UTA	78%	122–111	W 126–109	✓correct	+6
Jan 20	at HOU	44%	107–109	L 106–111	✓correct	−3
Jan 19	vs UTA	83%	124–110	W 123–110	✓correct	−1
Jan 17	vs MIN	53%	116–115	W 126–123	✓correct	+2
Jan 15	vs MIL	67%	117–111	W 119–101	✓correct	+12
Jan 13	at OKC	20%	110–122	L 98–119	✓correct	−9
Jan 11	at MIN	47%	117–118	L 103–104	✓correct	±0
Jan 10	at BOS	47%	114–115	W 100–95	✗missed	+6
Jan 7	vs LAL	69%	120–113	W 107–91	✓correct	+9
Jan 6	at MEM	66%	121–115	L 105–106	✗missed	−7
Jan 3	vs POR	74%	121–112	L 110–115	✗missed	−14
Jan 2	at IND	78%	124–113	W 123–113	✓correct	−1
Dec 31	vs NYK	59%	119–116	W 134–132	✓correct	−1
Dec 29	vs CLE	69%	121–114	L 101–113	✗missed	−19
Dec 27	vs UTA	82%	127–114	L 114–127	✗missed	−26
Dec 25	at OKC	19%	113–126	W 117–102	✗missed	+28
Dec 23	vs OKC	69%	120–113	W 130–110	✓correct	+13
Dec 21	at WAS	86%	127–111	W 124–113	✓correct	−5
Dec 19	at ATL	58%	122–119	W 126–98	✓correct	+25
Dec 18	vs WAS	86%	126–110	W 119–94	✓correct	+9
Dec 10	at LAL	36%	117–122	W 132–119	✗missed	+18
Dec 8	at NOP	76%	125–115	W 135–132	✓correct	−7
Dec 5	at CLE	44%	114–116	L 117–130	✓correct	−11
Dec 3	at ORL	22%	112–123	W 114–112	✗missed	+13
Dec 2	vs MEM	53%	117–116	W 126–119	✓correct	+6
Nov 30	at MIN	31%	113–120	L 112–125	✓correct	−6
Nov 28	at DEN	29%	116–124	W 139–136	✗missed	+11
Nov 26	at POR	44%	117–119	W 115–102	✗missed	+15
Nov 23	at PHX	29%	113–121	L 102–111	✓correct	−1
Nov 20	vs ATL	47%	115–116	W 135–126	✗missed	+10
Nov 18	vs MEM	69%	120–113	W 111–101	✓correct	+3
Nov 16	vs SAC	69%	121–114	W 123–110	✓correct	+6
Nov 14	vs GSW	53%	118–117	L 108–109	✗missed	−2
Nov 12	vs GSW	59%	117–114	L 120–125	✗missed	−8
Nov 10	at CHI	41%	115–118	W 121–117	✗missed	+7
Nov 8	vs NOP	86%	122–106	W 126–119	✓correct	−9
Nov 7	vs HOU	36%	110–115	W 121–110	✗missed	+16
Nov 5	at LAL	41%	114–117	L 116–118	✓correct	+1
Nov 2	at PHX	61%	118–114	L 118–130	✗missed	−16
Oct 30	vs MIA	64%	119–114	W 107–101	✓correct	+1
Oct 27	vs TOR	67%	120–114	W 121–103	✓correct	+12
Oct 26	vs BKN	78%	120–109	W 118–107	✓correct	±0
Oct 24	at NOP	66%	120–114	W 120–116	✓correct	−2
Oct 22	at DAL	44%	116–118	W 125–92	✗missed	+35
Apr 13	vs TOR	62%	115–111	W 125–118	✓correct	+3
Apr 11	at PHX	46%	111–112	L 98–117	✓correct	−18
Apr 9	at GSW	18%	109–123	W 114–111	✗missed	+17
Apr 8	at LAC	23%	110–121	L 117–122	✓correct	+6
Apr 6	at POR	46%	114–115	L 109–120	✓correct	−10
Apr 4	vs CLE	32%	111–119	L 113–114	✓correct	+7
Apr 2	at DEN	21%	112–124	W 113–106	✗missed	+19
Apr 1	vs ORL	54%	115–114	L 105–116	✗missed	−12
Mar 30	vs GSW	49%	115–116	L 106–148	✓correct	−41
Mar 29	vs BOS	29%	108–117	L 111–121	✓correct	−1
Mar 27	at CLE	25%	112–122	L 116–124	✓correct	+2
Mar 25	at DET	21%	116–128	L 96–122	✓correct	−14
Mar 23	at TOR	46%	114–115	W 123–89	✗missed	+35
Mar 21	vs PHI	62%	120–116	W 128–120	✓correct	+4
Mar 19	vs NYK	41%	113–117	W 120–105	✗missed	+19
Mar 17	at LAL	36%	113–118	L 109–125	✓correct	−11
Mar 15	vs NOP	62%	118–114	W 119–115	✓correct	±0
Mar 14	vs CHA	69%	122–115	L 134–145	✗missed	−18
Mar 12	vs DAL	59%	122–119	W 126–116	✓correct	+7
Mar 10	vs DAL	62%	121–117	L 129–133	✗missed	−8
Mar 9	at MIN	23%	112–123	L 124–141	✓correct	−6
Mar 7	at SAC	27%	113–122	L 109–127	✓correct	−9
Mar 4	vs BKN	59%	113–110	W 127–113	✓correct	+11
Mar 2	vs OKC	32%	113–121	L 132–146	✓correct	−6
Mar 1	at MEM	27%	115–124	W 130–128	✗missed	+11
Feb 26	at HOU	29%	110–118	L 106–118	✓correct	−4
Feb 25	at NOP	54%	119–117	L 103–109	✗missed	−8
Feb 23	at NOP	56%	119–116	L 96–114	✗missed	−21
Feb 21	vs DET	44%	117–120	L 110–125	✓correct	−12
Feb 20	vs PHX	59%	119–116	W 120–109	✓correct	+8
Feb 12	at BOS	21%	110–122	L 103–116	✓correct	−1
Feb 10	at WAS	61%	121–116	W 131–121	✓correct	+5
Feb 8	at ORL	46%	114–115	L 111–112	✓correct	±0
Feb 7	at CHA	56%	117–114	L 116–117	✗missed	−4
Feb 5	at ATL	46%	117–118	W 126–125	✗missed	+2
Feb 3	at MEM	23%	114–125	L 109–128	✓correct	−8
Feb 1	vs MIA	49%	117–118	L 103–105	✓correct	−1
Jan 31	vs MIL	36%	116–122	W 144–118	✗missed	+32
Jan 29	vs LAC	39%	111–116	L 116–128	✓correct	−7
Jan 19	at MIA	43%	111–113	L 107–128	✓correct	−19
Jan 17	vs MEM	49%	116–117	L 112–140	✓correct	−27
Jan 15	vs MEM	49%	116–117	L 115–129	✓correct	−13
Jan 13	at LAL	38%	109–113	W 126–102	✗missed	+28
Jan 8	at MIL	31%	111–118	L 105–121	✓correct	−9
Jan 6	at CHI	41%	112–115	L 110–114	✓correct	−1
Jan 4	vs DEN	57%	118–116	L 111–122	✗missed	−13
Jan 3	at DEN	33%	114–120	W 113–110	✗missed	+9
Dec 31	vs LAC	46%	112–114	W 122–86	✗missed	+38
Dec 29	at MIN	36%	109–114	L 110–112	✓correct	+3
Dec 27	at BKN	59%	114–110	W 96–87	✓correct	+5
Dec 25	at NYK	21%	110–122	L 114–117	✓correct	+9
Dec 23	at PHI	51%	111–110	L 106–111	✗missed	−6
Dec 21	vs POR	67%	119–113	W 114–94	✓correct	+14
Dec 19	vs ATL	49%	116–117	W 133–126	✗missed	+8
Dec 15	vs MIN	49%	111–112	L 92–106	✓correct	−13
Dec 13	at POR	38%	113–117	W 118–116	✗missed	+6
Dec 8	vs NOP	75%	121–111	W 121–116	✓correct	−5
Dec 6	vs SAC	46%	112–114	L 113–140	✓correct	−25
Dec 5	vs CHI	59%	119–116	L 124–139	✗missed	−18
Dec 3	at PHX	43%	114–116	L 93–104	✓correct	−9
Dec 1	at SAC	56%	113–110	W 127–125	✓correct	−1
Nov 27	vs LAL	59%	117–114	L 101–119	✗missed	−21
Nov 26	at UTA	61%	119–114	W 128–115	✓correct	+8
Nov 23	vs GSW	44%	115–118	W 104–94	✗missed	+13
Nov 21	vs UTA	69%	115–108	W 126–118	✓correct	+1
Nov 19	vs OKC	39%	108–113	W 110–104	✗missed	+11
Nov 16	at DAL	25%	109–119	L 93–110	✓correct	−7
Nov 15	vs LAL	49%	114–115	L 115–120	✓correct	−4
Nov 13	vs WAS	77%	119–108	W 139–130	✓correct	−2
Nov 11	vs SAC	41%	108–112	W 116–96	✗missed	+24
Nov 9	vs UTA	64%	113–108	L 110–111	✗missed	−6
Nov 7	vs POR	59%	110–107	W 118–105	✓correct	+10
Nov 6	at HOU	31%	107–114	L 100–127	✓correct	−20
Nov 4	at LAC	36%	106–111	L 104–113	✓correct	−4
Nov 2	vs MIN	49%	109–110	W 113–103	✗missed	+11
Oct 31	at UTA	51%	113–112	W 106–88	✓correct	+17
Oct 30	at OKC	21%	105–117	L 93–105	✓correct	±0
Oct 28	vs HOU	49%	115–116	L 101–106	✓correct	−4
Oct 26	vs HOU	49%	116–117	W 109–106	✗missed	+4
Oct 24	at DAL	23%	102–113	L 109–120	✓correct	±0
Apr 14	vs DET	57%	110–109	W 123–95	✓correct	+27
Apr 12	vs DEN	33%	107–118	W 121–120	✗missed	+12
Apr 10	at OKC	25%	108–119	L 89–127	✓correct	−27
Apr 9	at MEM	57%	115–109	W 102–87	✓correct	+9
Apr 7	vs PHI	49%	108–111	L 126–133	✓correct	−4
Apr 5	at NOP	27%	102–112	W 111–109	✗missed	+12
Apr 2	at DEN	19%	101–116	L 105–110	✓correct	+10
Mar 31	vs GSW	39%	107–115	L 113–117	✓correct	+4
Mar 29	vs NYK	41%	102–109	W 130–126	✗missed	+11
Mar 27	at UTA	39%	114–117	W 118–111	✗missed	+10
Mar 25	vs PHX	37%	108–117	W 104–102	✗missed	+11
Mar 23	vs PHX	45%	111–116	L 106–131	✓correct	−20
Mar 22	vs MEM	67%	112–106	L 97–99	✗missed	−8
Mar 19	vs DAL	47%	112–116	L 107–113	✓correct	−2
Mar 17	vs BKN	47%	111–115	W 122–115	✗missed	+11
Mar 15	vs DEN	41%	111–118	L 106–117	✓correct	−4
Mar 12	vs HOU	51%	116–118	L 101–103	✓correct	±0
Mar 11	vs GSW	45%	115–120	L 102–112	✓correct	−5
Mar 9	at GSW	32%	111–118	W 126–113	✗missed	+20
Mar 7	at SAC	24%	110–122	L 129–131	✓correct	+10
Mar 5	at HOU	37%	114–118	L 101–114	✓correct	−9
Mar 3	vs IND	39%	115–123	W 117–105	✗missed	+20
Feb 29	vs OKC	33%	111–122	W 132–118	✗missed	+25
Feb 27	at MIN	21%	107–121	L 105–114	✓correct	+5
Feb 25	at UTA	30%	114–122	L 109–128	✓correct	−11
Feb 23	at LAL	24%	110–122	L 118–123	✓correct	+7
Feb 22	at SAC	27%	111–121	L 122–127	✓correct	+5
Feb 14	at DAL	27%	111–121	L 93–116	✓correct	−13
Feb 12	at TOR	32%	112–119	W 122–99	✗missed	+30
Feb 10	at BKN	30%	111–119	L 103–123	✓correct	−12
Feb 8	at ORL	27%	109–119	L 111–127	✓correct	−6
Feb 7	at MIA	30%	109–117	L 104–116	✓correct	−4
Feb 3	vs CLE	43%	112–118	L 101–117	✓correct	−10
Feb 2	vs NOP	43%	113–119	L 113–114	✓correct	+5
Jan 31	vs ORL	45%	111–116	L 98–108	✓correct	−5
Jan 29	vs WAS	61%	120–117	L 113–118	✗missed	−8
Jan 27	vs MIN	47%	115–119	W 113–112	✗missed	+5
Jan 26	vs POR	68%	120–113	W 116–100	✓correct	+9
Jan 24	vs OKC	45%	116–121	L 114–140	✓correct	−21
Jan 22	at PHI	27%	108–118	L 123–133	✓correct	±0
Jan 20	at WAS	35%	115–120	W 131–127	✗missed	+9
Jan 19	at CHA	41%	113–115	L 120–124	✓correct	−2
Jan 17	at BOS	22%	111–124	L 98–117	✓correct	−6
Jan 15	at ATL	32%	116–123	L 99–109	✓correct	−3
Jan 13	vs CHI	43%	113–119	L 116–122	✓correct	±0
Jan 12	vs CHA	67%	118–112	W 135–99	✓correct	+30
Jan 10	at DET	43%	118–119	W 130–108	✗missed	+23
Jan 7	at CLE	18%	110–126	L 115–117	✓correct	+14
Jan 4	vs MIL	31%	111–123	L 121–125	✓correct	+8
Jan 2	at MEM	35%	114–119	L 98–106	✓correct	−3
Dec 31	vs BOS	43%	113–119	L 101–134	✓correct	−27
Dec 29	at POR	41%	118–120	L 128–134	✓correct	−4
Dec 28	at POR	34%	115–121	W 118–105	✗missed	+19
Dec 26	vs UTA	57%	116–115	L 118–130	✗missed	−13
Dec 23	at DAL	30%	112–120	L 119–144	✓correct	−17
Dec 21	at CHI	24%	111–123	L 95–114	✓correct	−7
Dec 19	at MIL	25%	111–122	L 119–132	✓correct	−2
Dec 17	vs NOP	45%	115–120	L 110–146	✓correct	−31
Dec 15	vs LAL	45%	114–119	W 129–115	✗missed	+19
Dec 13	vs LAL	45%	114–119	L 119–122	✓correct	+2
Dec 11	at HOU	22%	107–120	L 82–93	✓correct	+2
Dec 8	vs CHI	57%	113–112	L 112–121	✗missed	−10
Dec 6	at MIN	19%	107–122	L 94–102	✓correct	+7
Dec 1	at NOP	21%	111–125	L 106–121	✓correct	−1
Nov 30	vs ATL	51%	117–119	L 135–137	✓correct	±0
Nov 26	at DEN	21%	107–121	L 120–132	✓correct	+2
Nov 24	at GSW	27%	109–119	L 112–118	✓correct	+4
Nov 22	vs LAC	47%	114–118	L 102–109	✓correct	−3
Nov 20	vs LAC	45%	113–118	L 99–124	✓correct	−20
Nov 18	vs MEM	49%	114–117	L 108–120	✓correct	−9
Nov 17	vs SAC	41%	113–120	L 120–129	✓correct	−2
Nov 14	at OKC	28%	110–119	L 87–123	✓correct	−27
Nov 12	vs MIA	51%	115–117	L 113–118	✓correct	−3
Nov 10	vs MIN	45%	114–119	L 110–117	✓correct	−2
Nov 8	at NYK	25%	107–118	L 105–126	✓correct	−10
Nov 6	at IND	35%	115–120	L 111–152	✓correct	−36
Nov 5	vs TOR	53%	115–116	L 116–123	✓correct	−6
Nov 2	at PHX	32%	112–119	W 132–121	✗missed	+18
Oct 31	at PHX	28%	111–120	W 115–114	✗missed	+10
Oct 29	at LAC	34%	115–121	L 83–123	✓correct	−34
Oct 27	vs HOU	57%	119–118	W 126–122	✓correct	+3
Oct 25	vs DAL	43%	117–123	L 119–126	✓correct	−1
Apr 9	at DAL	26%	114–124	W 138–117	✗missed	+31
Apr 8	vs MIN	17%	109–124	L 131–151	✓correct	−5
Apr 6	vs POR	32%	116–123	W 129–127	✗missed	+9
Apr 4	at PHX	13%	107–125	L 94–115	✓correct	−3
Apr 2	at SAC	10%	103–124	W 142–134	✗missed	+29
Mar 31	at GSW	13%	105–123	L 115–130	✓correct	+3
Mar 29	vs UTA	20%	113–126	L 117–128	✓correct	+2
Mar 26	at BOS	13%	104–122	L 93–137	✓correct	−26
Mar 24	at WAS	40%	115–119	L 124–136	✓correct	−8
Mar 22	at MIL	12%	105–124	L 94–130	✓correct	−17
Mar 21	at NOP	24%	112–123	L 84–119	✓correct	−24
Mar 19	vs ATL	24%	115–126	W 126–118	✗missed	+19
Mar 17	vs MEM	22%	109–121	L 120–126	✓correct	+6
Mar 15	vs DAL	22%	113–125	L 128–137	✓correct	+3
Mar 14	vs ORL	24%	111–122	W 132–114	✗missed	+29
Mar 12	vs OKC	32%	114–121	L 90–102	✓correct	−5
Mar 10	vs DEN	24%	109–120	W 128–120	✗missed	+19
Mar 5	at HOU	37%	112–117	L 110–142	✓correct	−27
Mar 4	vs HOU	47%	113–114	L 110–122	✓correct	−11
Mar 2	vs IND	30%	113–121	W 110–99	✗missed	+19
Feb 28	at UTA	30%	110–118	W 102–94	✗missed	+16
Feb 25	at UTA	24%	111–122	L 102–118	✓correct	−5
Feb 23	at DAL	17%	107–122	L 116–142	✓correct	−11
Feb 15	at CHA	40%	113–117	L 110–120	✓correct	−6
Feb 13	at CLE	12%	101–120	L 109–117	✓correct	+11
Feb 11	at ATL	16%	108–124	L 106–125	✓correct	−3
Feb 10	at DET	26%	111–121	L 131–138	✓correct	+3
Feb 8	at TOR	13%	105–123	L 98–112	✓correct	+4
Feb 6	at CHI	16%	105–121	L 104–128	✓correct	−8
Feb 3	vs PHI	42%	118–121	L 125–137	✓correct	−9
Feb 1	vs SAC	40%	119–123	L 109–119	✓correct	−6
Jan 30	vs WAS	32%	118–125	L 106–127	✓correct	−14
Jan 28	vs PHX	26%	114–124	L 118–128	✓correct	±0
Jan 26	at LAC	22%	111–123	L 100–138	✓correct	−26
Jan 25	at LAL	24%	114–125	L 104–113	✓correct	+2
Jan 23	at POR	32%	113–120	L 127–147	✓correct	−13
Jan 20	vs LAC	35%	116–122	L 126–131	✓correct	+1
Jan 17	vs BKN	37%	116–121	W 106–98	✗missed	+13
Jan 15	vs SAC	40%	120–124	L 119–132	✓correct	−9
Jan 13	vs GSW	40%	116–120	L 113–144	✓correct	−27
Jan 11	at MEM	20%	108–121	L 129–135	✓correct	+7
Jan 9	at MEM	19%	106–120	L 113–121	✓correct	+6
Jan 7	vs BOS	22%	113–125	L 116–121	✓correct	+7
Jan 6	vs DET	55%	118–116	W 121–109	✓correct	+10
Jan 4	at NYK	16%	104–120	L 114–117	✓correct	+13
Jan 2	at BKN	22%	107–119	L 103–139	✓correct	−24
Dec 31	vs DAL	35%	111–117	L 125–126	✓correct	+5
Dec 29	vs NYK	45%	112–114	W 122–115	✗missed	+9
Dec 27	at OKC	32%	113–120	L 114–130	✓correct	−9
Dec 26	vs UTA	30%	113–121	W 126–122	✗missed	+12
Dec 23	at ORL	30%	110–118	L 113–133	✓correct	−12
Dec 22	at NOP	19%	104–118	L 117–126	✓correct	+5
Dec 19	at HOU	35%	107–113	W 124–105	✗missed	+25
Dec 17	vs MIA	40%	110–114	L 101–111	✓correct	−6
Dec 14	vs POR	42%	114–117	L 112–128	✓correct	−13
Dec 12	vs CLE	35%	107–113	W 112–111	✗missed	+7
Dec 10	at MIA	20%	106–119	W 115–111	✗missed	+17
Dec 8	vs HOU	37%	113–118	W 118–109	✗missed	+14
Dec 4	vs PHX	30%	115–123	L 95–133	✓correct	−30
Dec 2	vs NOP	28%	111–120	L 99–117	✓correct	−9
Nov 30	at OKC	47%	113–114	L 111–119	✓correct	−7
Nov 26	vs LAL	37%	111–116	L 138–143	✓correct	±0
Nov 25	vs LAL	45%	115–117	L 94–105	✓correct	−9
Nov 23	vs NOP	32%	111–118	L 110–129	✓correct	−12
Nov 20	at LAL	30%	109–117	L 92–123	✓correct	−23
Nov 19	at LAC	26%	105–115	L 97–119	✓correct	−12
Nov 17	at SAC	19%	107–121	L 112–130	✓correct	−4
Nov 15	at POR	32%	106–113	L 110–117	✓correct	±0
Nov 14	at GSW	40%	109–113	L 95–132	✓correct	−33
Nov 11	vs MIL	32%	107–114	W 111–93	✗missed	+25
Nov 9	vs MEM	22%	109–121	L 122–124	✓correct	+10
Nov 7	vs DEN	30%	109–117	L 109–115	✓correct	+2
Nov 5	at DEN	45%	114–116	L 101–126	✓correct	−23
Nov 4	vs LAC	45%	108–110	L 106–113	✓correct	−5
Nov 2	vs TOR	32%	108–115	L 100–143	✓correct	−36
Oct 30	vs MIN	42%	110–113	W 107–98	✗missed	+12
Oct 28	vs CHI	60%	112–108	W 129–124	✓correct	+1
Oct 26	at MIN	47%	109–110	L 122–134	✓correct	−11
Oct 24	at MIN	53%	112–111	W 115–106	✓correct	+8
Oct 22	at PHI	47%	109–110	W 114–105	✗missed	+10
Oct 21	at IND	65%	118–112	W 137–134	✓correct	−3
Oct 19	vs CHA	55%	115–113	L 102–129	✗missed	−29

Surprise games

All SAS surprises

Across every graded season. The percentage is the pregame chance the forecast gave the team that won.

Most unexpected SAS wins

10%SAS beat SAC142–134Apr 2, 2022-23 · forecast SAC124–103 · missed margin by 29
18%SAS beat GSW114–111Apr 9, 2024-25 · forecast GSW123–109 · missed margin by 17
19%SAS beat OKC117–102Dec 25, 2025-26 · forecast OKC126–113 · missed margin by 28
20%SAS beat MIA115–111Dec 10, 2022-23 · forecast MIA119–106 · missed margin by 17
21%SAS beat DEN113–106Apr 2, 2024-25 · forecast DEN124–112 · missed margin by 19

Most unexpected SAS losses

11%DEN beat SAS128–118Apr 12, 2025-26 · forecast SAS127–109 · missed margin by 28
19%UTA beat SAS127–114Dec 27, 2025-26 · forecast SAS127–114 · missed margin by 26
20%MIN beat SAS104–102May 4, 2025-26 · playoffs · forecast SAS117–105 · missed margin by 14
20%NOP beat SAS104–95Jan 25, 2025-26 · forecast SAS121–109 · missed margin by 21
22%NYK beat SAS105–95Jun 3, 2025-26 · playoffs · forecast SAS110–99 · missed margin by 21

Largest margin misses

51%GSW beat SAS148–106Mar 30, 2024-25 · forecast GSW116–115 · missed margin by 41
46%SAS beat LAC122–86Dec 31, 2024-25 · forecast LAC114–112 · missed margin by 38
65%IND beat SAS152–111Nov 6, 2023-24 · forecast IND120–115 · missed margin by 36
68%TOR beat SAS143–100Nov 2, 2022-23 · forecast TOR115–108 · missed margin by 36
44%SAS beat DAL125–92Oct 22, 2025-26 · forecast DAL118–116 · missed margin by 35

Definitions

Expected wins: The sum of the team's pregame win probabilities over the games in the sample (home: the stored home win probability; road: one minus it).
Wins vs expectation: Actual wins minus expected wins. It describes results relative to the forecasts, not why they differed.
Margin error: The team's actual margin minus its forecast margin, in points. Positive means the team did better than forecast.
Error variability: The sample standard deviation of margin errors. Higher means the forecasts for this team's games were less consistent.
Winner picked: The share of the team's games in which the forecast winner won, whichever team that was. Teams play different mixes of close and lopsided games, so this alone is not a fair measure of how hard a team is to forecast.
Average margin miss: The mean absolute margin error. This is the headline measure of how hard a team's games were for this model to forecast.
Average margin error: The mean signed margin error. Consistently positive means the model underrated the team in this sample; negative, overrated.
Brier score: The mean squared difference between the team's pregame win probability and the result (1 for a win, 0 for a loss). It rewards confident correct forecasts and penalises confident wrong ones.
Intervals and samples: Ranges are 90% bootstrap intervals (1,000 resamples of the team's games). Under 20 games no ranking is shown; 20 to 59 games is exploratory; 60 or more is roughly a full season.

More on how forecasts are made and tested: Methodology.

Upcoming

Recent results

Predictability

2026-27 (in progress)

2025-26

2024-25

2023-24

2022-23

2022-23 to 2026-27

Surprise games

Most unexpected SAS wins

Most unexpected SAS losses

Largest margin misses

Recent results the forecast got wrong

Definitions