2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Toronto Raptors at San Antonio Spurs

Wednesday, November 2, 2022 · tip-off time not recorded

TOR 1–0@SAS 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
TOR Toronto Raptors	115	143	+28
SAS San Antonio Spurs (home)	108	100	−8

Forecast: Toronto Raptors to win, 68% win probability, projected margin 7.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	TOR	SAS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1554	1508
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+24
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+2.1	−0.1
Games played this season	7	7
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	111.5	113.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	111.2	115.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	43.6
Rest days	2	3
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingTOR1554SAS1508

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

TOR1554

Ended last season at 1563 → started this one at 1547
This season's 7 games: +6.5

WCLE108–105+3.4
L@BKN105–109−6.0
L@MIA109–112−3.6
W@MIA98–90+13.2
WPHI119–109+7.7
LPHI90–112−23.6
WATL139–109+15.4

SAS1508

Ended last season at 1486 → started this one at 1489
This season's 7 games: +18.5

LCHA102–129−22.2
W@IND137–134+5.4
W@PHI114–105+15.9
W@MIN115–106+14.3
L@MIN122–134−8.1
WCHI129–124+4.7
WMIN107–98+8.5

Season scoring marginTOR+2.1SAS−0.1

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

TOR+2.1

Scores 109.7, allows 106.6 over 7 games: +3.1 a game.

35% this season (+3.1) + 65% last season (+1.6) = +2.1

SAS−0.1

Scores 118.0, allows 118.6 over 7 games: −0.6 a game.

35% this season (−0.6) + 65% last season (+0.1) = −0.1

Offensive rating, last 10TOR111.5SAS113.0

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 112.0).

TOR111.5scored, −0.5 vs league

Factor	TOR	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.4%	53.4%	−2.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	9.6%	12.3%	+3.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.7%	24.2%	−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.218	0.211	+0.2
Everything else			−0.9

SAS113.0scored, +1.0 vs league

Factor	SAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.0%	53.4%	+0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.6%	12.3%	−0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.7%	24.2%	−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.221	0.211	+0.3
Everything else			+0.4

Defensive rating, last 10TOR111.2SAS115.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 112.0).

TOR111.2allowed, −0.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.7%	53.4%	−2.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.6%	12.3%	+1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	19.1%	24.2%	+2.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.237	0.211	−0.7
Everything else			−0.5

SAS115.3allowed, +3.3 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.8%	53.4%	−2.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.9%	12.3%	−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.2%	24.2%	−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.219	0.211	−0.2
Everything else			+0.1

Pace, last 10average 99.5

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

TOR 96.3 and SAS 102.8 → average 99.5 (league 2022-23 to date: 100.3)

Rotation points missingTOR0.0SAS43.6

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

TOR0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2022-11-02 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

SAS43.6pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Keldon Johnson	23.9	33.5	7
Devin Vassell	19.8	32.4	4

Source: official injury report, 2022-11-02 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestTOR2 daysSAS3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

TOR2days

Last played Oct 31 against ATL.

SAS3days

Last played Oct 30 against MIN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

TOR

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 31	ATL	139–109	46-92	14-34	33-40	6	12	135.0	105.8	103.0
Oct 28	PHI	90–112	33-86	9-39	15-24	17	15	97.8	120.4	92.5
Oct 26	PHI	119–109	46-84	16-37	11-14	9	6	126.6	117.2	93.5
Oct 24	@MIA	98–90	34-86	14-32	16-20	12	10	101.0	92.8	97.0
Oct 22	@MIA	109–112	37-87	14-39	21-28	6	8	114.7	117.9	95.0
Oct 21	@BKN	105–109	41-84	11-28	12-18	13	8	109.4	114.7	95.5
Oct 19	CLE	108–105	36-86	13-30	23-32	13	12	109.1	106.1	99.0
Apr 28	PHI	97–132	35-89	7-35	20-25	9	15	102.1	140.4	94.5
Apr 25	@PHI	103–88	42-82	8-31	11-13	8	3	108.4	93.6	94.5
Apr 23	PHI	110–102	37-88	8-34	28-35	11	13	111.1	103.0	99.0

SAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 30	MIN	107–98	36-86	16-40	19-25	19	14	108.1	99.0	99.0
Oct 28	CHI	129–124	46-86	16-38	21-26	20	8	121.7	117.0	106.0
Oct 26	@MIN	122–134	43-95	16-36	20-22	16	14	116.2	127.6	105.0
Oct 24	@MIN	115–106	48-105	12-37	7-13	13	14	110.6	103.9	103.0
Oct 22	@PHI	114–105	43-89	16-38	12-15	14	12	121.3	111.7	94.0
Oct 21	@IND	137–134	44-81	17-31	32-44	17	7	123.4	118.6	112.0
Oct 19	CHA	102–129	40-99	7-34	15-21	15	14	97.1	120.6	106.0
Apr 10	@DAL	120–130	43-89	11-31	23-23	8	7	120.0	130.0	100.0
Apr 9	GSW	94–100	32-80	10-31	20-27	12	4	95.9	103.1	97.5
Apr 7	@MIN	121–127	43-89	10-28	25-34	12	8	115.2	121.0	105.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games

68%

pregame chance the forecast gave TOR, the winner

TOR was the forecast favorite

36 pts

margin miss

forecast −7, actual −43 for SAS

1001st

most surprising result of 2022-23

of 1,314 graded games

14th

largest margin miss of 2022-23

outcome surprise 0.39 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	TOR	SAS
Final score	143	100
Field goals	57–106 · 53.8%	37–94 · 39.4%
Three-pointers	14–33 · 42.4%	14–43 · 32.6%
Free throws	15–16 · 93.8%	12–14 · 85.7%
Rebounds	50	46
Assists	31	29
Turnovers	11	23
Steals	16	3
Blocks	6	6

How the model does with these teams over time: Toronto Raptors · San Antonio Spurs

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (SAS)	−7	−43	−36
Total points	223	243	+20
TOR points	115	143	+28
SAS points	108	100	−8

Recent form before this game

Toronto Raptors

Date	Opponent	Result
Oct 31	vs ATL	W 139–109
Oct 28	vs PHI	L 90–112
Oct 26	vs PHI	W 119–109
Oct 24	at MIA	W 98–90
Oct 22	at MIA	L 109–112

San Antonio Spurs

Date	Opponent	Result
Oct 30	vs MIN	W 107–98
Oct 28	vs CHI	W 129–124
Oct 26	at MIN	L 122–134
Oct 24	at MIN	W 115–106
Oct 22	at PHI	W 114–105

Previous meetings

Date	Matchup	Score
Mar 9 2021-22	TOR at SAS	TOR 119 – 104 SAS
Jan 4 2021-22	SAS at TOR	SAS 104 – 129 TOR