2025-26 · Regular Season · Final
Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs
Saturday, December 27, 2025 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET
UTA 4–1@SAS 3–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTA Utah Jazz | 114 | 127 | +13 |
| SAS San Antonio Spurs (home) | 127 | 114 | −13 |
Forecast: San Antonio Spurs to win, 82% win probability, projected margin 13.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | UTA | SAS |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1383 | 1632 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +320 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | −7.2 | +6.8 |
| Games played this season | 30 | 31 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 117.4 | 120.1 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 125.0 | 108.6 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 103.0 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 20.3 | 18.8 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | Yes | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingUTA1383SAS1632
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
UTA1383
- Ended last season at 1284 → started this one at 1338
- First 20 games: +34.6
- Last 10 games: +10.1
- W@BKN123–110+13.5
- L@NYK112–146−6.5
- LOKC101–131−4.4
- W@MEM130–126+11.4
- WDAL140–133+8.1
- LLAL135–143−6.1
- LORL127–128−2.6
- L@DEN112–135−3.7
- LMEM128–137−8.1
- WDET131–129+8.5
SAS1632
- Ended last season at 1417 → started this one at 1438
- First 21 games: +103.1
- Last 10 games: +91.7
- L@CLE117–130−7.8
- W@NOP135–132+2.6
- W@LAL132–119+17.6
- WSAS111–109±0.0
- L@SAS109–111±0.0
- WWAS119–94+3.4
- W@ATL126–98+20.3
- W@WAS124–113+4.1
- WOKC130–110+25.5
- W@OKC117–102+26.0
Season scoring marginUTA−7.2SAS+6.8
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
UTA−7.2
Scores 120.3, allows 127.5 over 30 games: −7.2 a game.
SAS+6.8
Scores 119.9, allows 113.1 over 31 games: +6.8 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10UTA117.4SAS120.1
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.9).
UTA117.4scored, +2.5 vs league
| Factor | UTA | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 54.9% | 54.5% | +0.5 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.6% | 12.4% | +1.2 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.256 | 0.220 | +1.1 | |
| Everything else | −0.1 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
SAS120.1scored, +5.2 vs league
| Factor | SAS | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 56.6% | 54.5% | +3.1 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.4% | 12.4% | +1.3 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.213 | 0.220 | −0.2 | |
| Everything else | +0.9 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Defensive rating, last 10UTA125.0SAS108.6
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.9).
UTA125.0allowed, +10.1 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 60.2% | 54.5% | −8.6 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.9% | 12.4% | −2.1 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.232 | 0.220 | −0.3 | |
| Everything else | +1.0 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
SAS108.6allowed, −6.3 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 52.6% | 54.5% | +2.9 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 9.9% | 12.4% | −3.5 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.177 | 0.220 | +1.2 | |
| Everything else | +5.7 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Pace, last 10average 103.0
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
UTA 103.4 and SAS 102.7 → average 103.0 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.8)
Rotation points missingUTA20.3SAS18.8
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
UTA20.3pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ace Bailey | 10.6 | 27.2 | 10 |
| Kevin Love | 9.7 | 20.8 | 7 |
Source: official injury report, 2025-12-27 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.
SAS18.8pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| De'Aaron Fox | 18.8 | 30.7 | 10 |
Source: official injury report, 2025-12-27 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.
RestUTA1 daysSAS2 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
UTA1day, back-to-back
Last played Dec 26 against DET.
SAS2days
Last played Dec 25 against OKC.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
UTA
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 26 | DET | 131–129 | 44-90 | 18-38 | 25-26 | 17 | – | 124.8 | 121.7 | 105.5 |
| Dec 23 | MEM | 128–137 | 40-90 | 16-45 | 32-36 | 13 | – | 120.8 | 129.2 | 106.0 |
| Dec 22 | @DEN | 112–135 | 41-96 | 14-41 | 16-19 | 14 | – | 104.7 | 127.4 | 106.5 |
| Dec 20 | ORL | 127–128 | 44-105 | 15-43 | 24-30 | 12 | – | 115.5 | 116.4 | 99.6 |
| Dec 18 | LAL | 135–143 | 43-83 | 18-37 | 31-47 | 13 | – | 131.1 | 138.8 | 103.0 |
| Dec 15 | DAL | 140–133 | 50-97 | 13-36 | 27-33 | 13 | – | 121.7 | 115.7 | 104.2 |
| Dec 12 | @MEM | 130–126 | 48-104 | 17-47 | 17-25 | 13 | – | 122.6 | 117.8 | 106.5 |
| Dec 7 | OKC | 101–131 | 40-85 | 12-36 | 9-12 | 17 | – | 100.0 | 131.0 | 100.5 |
| Dec 5 | @NYK | 112–146 | 35-87 | 15-42 | 27-35 | 12 | – | 108.7 | 141.7 | 103.0 |
| Dec 4 | @BKN | 123–110 | 42-83 | 14-25 | 25-27 | 12 | – | 124.2 | 110.0 | 99.5 |
SAS
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 25 | @OKC | 117–102 | 45-84 | 11-29 | 16-21 | 12 | – | 121.9 | 104.1 | 97.0 |
| Dec 23 | OKC | 130–110 | 48-84 | 16-36 | 18-24 | 9 | – | 136.8 | 115.8 | 95.0 |
| Dec 21 | @WAS | 124–113 | 43-104 | 13-41 | 25-32 | 9 | – | 121.6 | 108.7 | 103.0 |
| Dec 19 | @ATL | 126–98 | 51-94 | 13-36 | 11-16 | 14 | – | 117.8 | 92.5 | 106.5 |
| Dec 18 | WAS | 119–94 | 44-90 | 15-42 | 16-20 | 14 | – | 120.2 | 94.0 | 99.5 |
| Dec 13 | OKC | 111–109 | 37-90 | 13-42 | 24-32 | 19 | – | 104.7 | 101.9 | 106.5 |
| Dec 10 | @LAL | 132–119 | 43-86 | 17-38 | 29-36 | 10 | – | 126.9 | 113.3 | 104.5 |
| Dec 8 | @NOP | 135–132 | 49-98 | 17-36 | 20-25 | 13 | – | 128.6 | 124.5 | 105.5 |
| Dec 5 | @CLE | 117–130 | 42-93 | 15-43 | 18-26 | 14 | – | 113.6 | 126.2 | 103.0 |
| Dec 3 | @ORL | 114–112 | 42-91 | 13-38 | 17-24 | 19 | – | 108.6 | 104.7 | 106.0 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2025-26 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | UTA | SAS |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 127 | 114 |
| Field goals | 45–83 · 54.2% | 43–99 · 43.4% |
| Three-pointers | 17–37 · 45.9% | 10–44 · 22.7% |
| Free throws | 20–26 · 76.9% | 18–21 · 85.7% |
| Rebounds | 37 | 46 |
| Assists | 34 | 30 |
| Turnovers | 15 | 11 |
| Steals | 9 | 6 |
| Blocks | 4 | 7 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Utah Jazz · San Antonio Spurs
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (SAS) | +13 | −13 | −26 |
| Total points | 241 | 241 | ±0 |
| UTA points | 114 | 127 | +13 |
| SAS points | 127 | 114 | −13 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 26 2024-25 | SAS at UTA | SAS 128 – 115 UTA |
| Nov 21 2024-25 | UTA at SAS | UTA 118 – 126 SAS |
| Nov 9 2024-25 | UTA at SAS | UTA 111 – 110 SAS |
| Oct 31 2024-25 | SAS at UTA | SAS 106 – 88 UTA |
| Mar 27 2023-24 | SAS at UTA | SAS 118 – 111 UTA |