Eastern Conference · 2026-27

Atlanta Hawks ATL

7–4

2026-27 record

1545

Elo rating

with the forecast of Nov 7

114.3

Offensive rating

last 10 games

111.1

Defensive rating

last 10, lower is better

102.8

Pace

possessions per game

Hover the ball to see a season.

Every graded ATL game, one dot each, oldest at the center. 197 of 350 forecasts picked the winner (colored dots).

Elo rating, recent games

Pregame Elo stored with each of ATL's last 82 forecasts. Dashed: 1500, the long-run average.

Elo rating recorded with each team's most recent forecast. Higher is stronger; 1500 is the long-run average. ATL ranks 13 of 30.

Upcoming

Schedule

Nov 9 7:00 PM ET

LAL Los Angeles Lakers 9–2 –

@ATL Atlanta Hawks 7–4 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 13 8:00 PM ET

ATL Atlanta Hawks 7–4 –

@CHI Chicago Bulls 1–8 –

Forecast coming Details

Recent results

Predictability

How closely the forecasts tracked ATL games. A team can be hard for this model to forecast whether it is good or bad: misses come from the model's limits, roster changes, missing information and ordinary game-to-game variation. Compare all 30 teams

2026-27 (in progress)

Small sample: 11 games. These figures are a running log, not a measurement, and no ranking is shown.

13.6 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 6.6 to 21.6

+1.6

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -7.1 to 12.7

20.8 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.7

55%

winner picked

11 games involving ATL

7 / 5.9

actual / expected wins

gap +1.1

0.236

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 11 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	ATL win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 7	vs BKN	80%	121–109	W 124–121	✓correct	−9
Nov 6	vs WAS	76%	120–110	W 139–132	✓correct	−3
Nov 4	at WAS	37%	110–114	W 120–105	✗missed	+19
Nov 2	at IND	72%	119–111	W 108–104	✓correct	−4
Oct 31	at NOP	64%	123–118	L 99–121	✗missed	−27
Oct 29	vs CLE	53%	115–114	W 114–111	✓correct	+2
Oct 28	vs MIA	62%	121–117	L 117–129	✗missed	−16
Oct 26	at HOU	33%	109–115	L 110–120	✓correct	−4
Oct 24	vs HOU	38%	108–112	L 114–121	✓correct	−3
Oct 23	at CHA	33%	110–116	W 128–81	✗missed	+53
Oct 21	at ORL	44%	111–113	W 132–125	✗missed	+9

2025-26

12.6 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.9 to 14.5; 25th smallest of 30

−0.5

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -3.2 to 2.2

16.0 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.4

66%

winner picked

88 games involving ATL

48 / 47.3

actual / expected wins

gap +0.7

0.208

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 88 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	ATL win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 30 PO	vs NYK	45%	108–110	L 89–140	✓correct	−49
Apr 28 PO	at NYK	47%	106–107	L 97–126	✓correct	−28
Apr 25 PO	vs NYK	42%	106–109	L 98–114	✓correct	−13
Apr 23 PO	vs NYK	44%	105–107	W 109–108	✗missed	+3
Apr 20 PO	at NYK	34%	103–109	W 107–106	✗missed	+7
Apr 18 PO	at NYK	39%	105–109	L 102–113	✓correct	−7
Apr 12	at MIA	36%	118–123	L 117–143	✓correct	−21
Apr 10	vs CLE	74%	122–113	W 124–102	✓correct	+13
Apr 8	at CLE	47%	119–120	L 116–122	✓correct	−5
Apr 6	vs NYK	42%	112–115	L 105–108	✓correct	±0
Apr 3	at BKN	80%	122–110	W 141–107	✓correct	+22
Apr 1	at ORL	61%	120–116	W 130–101	✓correct	+25
Mar 30	vs BOS	47%	111–112	W 112–102	✗missed	+11
Mar 28	vs SAC	82%	123–110	W 123–113	✓correct	−3
Mar 27	at BOS	47%	113–114	L 102–109	✓correct	−6
Mar 25	at DET	39%	114–118	W 130–129	✗missed	+5
Mar 23	vs MEM	80%	125–113	W 146–107	✓correct	+27
Mar 21	vs GSW	76%	121–111	W 126–110	✓correct	+6
Mar 20	at HOU	47%	114–115	L 95–117	✓correct	−21
Mar 18	at DAL	69%	119–112	W 135–120	✓correct	+8
Mar 16	vs ORL	59%	117–114	W 124–112	✓correct	+9
Mar 14	vs MIL	83%	123–109	W 122–99	✓correct	+9
Mar 12	vs BKN	89%	125–107	W 108–97	✓correct	−7
Mar 10	vs DAL	74%	122–113	W 124–112	✓correct	+3
Mar 7	vs PHI	71%	120–112	W 125–116	✓correct	+1
Mar 4	at MIL	64%	118–113	W 131–113	✓correct	+13
Mar 1	vs POR	67%	119–113	W 135–101	✓correct	+28
Feb 26	vs WAS	78%	123–112	W 126–96	✓correct	+19
Feb 24	vs WAS	74%	122–113	W 119–98	✓correct	+12
Feb 22	vs BKN	74%	120–111	W 115–104	✓correct	+2
Feb 20	vs MIA	47%	118–119	L 97–128	✓correct	−30
Feb 19	at PHI	53%	116–115	W 117–107	✓correct	+9
Feb 11	at CHA	34%	112–118	L 107–110	✓correct	+3
Feb 9	at MIN	41%	115–118	L 116–138	✓correct	−19
Feb 7	vs CHA	47%	111–112	L 119–126	✓correct	−6
Feb 5	vs UTA	78%	123–112	W 121–119	✓correct	−9
Feb 3	at MIA	39%	116–120	W 127–115	✗missed	+16
Jan 31	at IND	53%	116–115	L 124–129	✗missed	−6
Jan 29	vs HOU	47%	110–111	L 86–104	✓correct	−17
Jan 28	at BOS	34%	110–116	W 117–106	✗missed	+17
Jan 26	vs IND	67%	117–111	W 132–116	✓correct	+10
Jan 23	vs PHX	39%	113–117	W 110–103	✗missed	+11
Jan 21	at MEM	44%	115–117	W 124–122	✗missed	+4
Jan 19	vs MIL	61%	117–113	L 110–112	✗missed	−6
Jan 17	vs BOS	42%	111–114	L 106–132	✓correct	−23
Jan 15	at POR	53%	117–116	L 101–117	✗missed	−17
Jan 13	at LAL	56%	117–115	L 116–141	✗missed	−27
Jan 11	at GSW	44%	117–119	W 124–111	✗missed	+15
Jan 9	at DEN	34%	119–125	W 110–87	✗missed	+29
Jan 7	vs NOP	64%	123–118	W 117–100	✓correct	+12
Jan 5	at TOR	39%	115–119	L 100–118	✓correct	−14
Jan 3	at TOR	31%	112–119	L 117–134	✓correct	−10
Jan 2	at NYK	29%	120–128	W 111–99	✗missed	+20
Dec 31	vs MIN	29%	116–124	W 126–102	✗missed	+32
Dec 29	at OKC	8%	110–131	L 129–140	✓correct	+10
Dec 27	vs NYK	39%	117–121	L 125–128	✓correct	+1
Dec 26	vs MIA	56%	120–118	L 111–126	✗missed	−17
Dec 23	vs CHI	53%	121–120	L 123–126	✗missed	−4
Dec 21	vs CHI	56%	120–118	L 150–152	✗missed	−4
Dec 19	vs SAS	42%	119–122	L 98–126	✓correct	−25
Dec 18	at CHA	58%	117–114	L 126–133	✗missed	−10
Dec 14	vs PHI	59%	119–116	W 120–117	✓correct	±0
Dec 12	at DET	34%	115–121	L 115–142	✓correct	−21
Dec 6	at WAS	80%	125–113	W 131–116	✓correct	+3
Dec 5	vs DEN	47%	119–120	L 133–134	✓correct	±0
Dec 3	vs LAC	67%	121–115	L 92–115	✗missed	−29
Dec 1	at DET	36%	116–121	L 98–99	✓correct	+4
Nov 30	at PHI	58%	120–117	W 142–134	✓correct	+5
Nov 28	vs CLE	53%	119–118	W 130–123	✓correct	+6
Nov 25	at WAS	83%	126–112	L 113–132	✗missed	−33
Nov 23	vs CHA	83%	122–108	W 113–110	✓correct	−11
Nov 22	at NOP	78%	123–112	W 115–98	✓correct	+6
Nov 20	at SAS	53%	116–115	L 126–135	✗missed	−10
Nov 18	vs DET	53%	117–116	L 112–120	✗missed	−9
Nov 16	at PHX	47%	116–117	W 124–122	✗missed	+3
Nov 13	at UTA	69%	119–112	W 132–122	✓correct	+3
Nov 12	at SAC	69%	120–113	W 133–100	✓correct	+26
Nov 10	at LAC	53%	115–114	W 105–102	✓correct	+2
Nov 8	vs LAL	42%	113–116	W 122–102	✗missed	+23
Nov 7	vs TOR	61%	120–116	L 97–109	✗missed	−16
Nov 4	vs ORL	67%	118–112	W 127–112	✓correct	+9
Nov 2	at CLE	44%	116–118	L 109–117	✓correct	−6
Oct 31	at IND	44%	114–116	W 128–108	✗missed	+22
Oct 29	at BKN	66%	121–115	W 117–112	✓correct	−1
Oct 27	at CHI	31%	116–123	L 123–128	✓correct	+2
Oct 25	vs OKC	31%	116–123	L 100–117	✓correct	−10
Oct 24	at ORL	41%	113–116	W 111–107	✗missed	+7
Oct 22	vs TOR	61%	121–117	L 118–138	✗missed	−24

2024-25

10.7 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.4 to 12.2; 12th smallest of 30

+0.1

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.4 to 2.5

13.4 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

53%

winner picked

81 games involving ATL

40 / 38.3

actual / expected wins

gap +1.7

0.246

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 81 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	ATL win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 13	vs ORL	44%	111–114	W 117–105	✗missed	+15
Apr 11	at PHI	71%	123–114	W 124–110	✓correct	+5
Apr 10	at BKN	64%	119–113	W 133–109	✓correct	+18
Apr 8	at ORL	31%	111–118	L 112–119	✓correct	±0
Apr 6	vs UTA	79%	126–114	W 147–134	✓correct	+1
Apr 5	vs NYK	49%	116–117	L 105–121	✓correct	−15
Apr 2	at DAL	51%	121–120	L 118–120	✗missed	−3
Apr 1	vs POR	62%	118–114	L 113–127	✗missed	−18
Mar 30	at MIL	36%	113–118	W 145–124	✗missed	+26
Mar 27	at MIA	51%	114–113	L 112–122	✗missed	−11
Mar 25	at HOU	29%	113–121	L 114–121	✓correct	+1
Mar 23	vs PHI	73%	125–116	W 132–119	✓correct	+4
Mar 22	vs GSW	54%	119–118	W 124–115	✓correct	+8
Mar 18	at CHA	56%	118–115	W 134–102	✓correct	+29
Mar 16	at BKN	59%	115–111	L 114–122	✗missed	−12
Mar 14	vs LAC	54%	117–116	L 98–121	✗missed	−24
Mar 12	vs CHA	79%	125–113	W 123–110	✓correct	+1
Mar 10	vs PHI	77%	126–115	W 132–123	✓correct	−2
Mar 8	vs IND	44%	120–123	W 120–118	✗missed	+5
Mar 6	vs IND	41%	119–123	W 124–118	✗missed	+10
Mar 4	vs MIL	46%	118–120	L 121–127	✓correct	−4
Mar 3	at MEM	27%	116–125	W 132–130	✗missed	+11
Feb 28	vs OKC	41%	119–123	L 119–135	✓correct	−12
Feb 26	at MIA	46%	114–115	L 109–131	✓correct	−21
Feb 24	vs MIA	62%	121–117	W 98–86	✓correct	+8
Feb 23	vs DET	44%	118–121	L 143–148	✓correct	−2
Feb 20	vs ORL	62%	116–112	L 108–114	✗missed	−10
Feb 12	at NYK	29%	113–121	L 148–149	✓correct	+7
Feb 10	at ORL	46%	114–115	W 112–106	✗missed	+7
Feb 8	at WAS	56%	118–115	W 125–111	✓correct	+11
Feb 7	vs MIL	44%	117–120	W 115–110	✗missed	+8
Feb 5	vs SAS	54%	118–117	L 125–126	✗missed	−2
Feb 3	at DET	27%	111–120	W 132–130	✗missed	+11
Feb 1	at IND	23%	110–121	L 127–132	✓correct	+6
Jan 30	at CLE	19%	110–123	L 115–137	✓correct	−9
Jan 28	vs HOU	39%	115–120	L 96–100	✓correct	+1
Jan 27	at MIN	31%	112–119	L 92–100	✓correct	−1
Jan 25	vs TOR	69%	118–111	L 94–117	✗missed	−30
Jan 23	vs TOR	64%	118–113	L 119–122	✗missed	−8
Jan 22	vs DET	54%	116–115	L 104–114	✗missed	−11
Jan 20	at NYK	31%	113–120	L 110–119	✓correct	−2
Jan 18	at BOS	27%	109–118	W 119–115	✗missed	+13
Jan 15	at CHI	31%	118–125	W 110–94	✗missed	+23
Jan 14	vs PHX	54%	118–117	W 122–117	✓correct	+4
Jan 9	at PHX	43%	115–117	L 115–123	✓correct	−6
Jan 7	at UTA	64%	120–114	W 124–121	✓correct	−3
Jan 4	at LAC	36%	113–118	L 105–131	✓correct	−21
Jan 3	at LAL	38%	115–119	L 102–119	✓correct	−13
Jan 1	at DEN	36%	117–122	L 120–139	✓correct	−14
Dec 29	at TOR	54%	119–117	W 136–107	✓correct	+27
Dec 28	vs MIA	49%	113–114	W 120–110	✗missed	+11
Dec 26	vs CHI	59%	118–115	W 141–133	✓correct	+5
Dec 23	vs MIN	49%	113–114	W 117–104	✗missed	+14
Dec 21	vs MEM	44%	113–116	L 112–128	✓correct	−13
Dec 19	at SAS	51%	117–116	L 126–133	✗missed	−8
Dec 11	at NYK	27%	113–122	W 108–100	✗missed	+17
Dec 8	vs DEN	54%	118–117	L 111–141	✗missed	−31
Dec 6	vs LAL	71%	120–112	W 134–132	✓correct	−6
Dec 4	at MIL	36%	115–120	W 119–104	✗missed	+20
Dec 2	vs NOP	69%	117–110	W 124–112	✓correct	+5
Nov 30	at CHA	66%	118–111	W 107–104	✓correct	−4
Nov 29	vs CLE	36%	116–122	W 117–101	✗missed	+22
Nov 27	at CLE	18%	112–126	W 135–124	✗missed	+25
Nov 25	vs DAL	44%	114–117	L 119–129	✓correct	−7
Nov 22	at CHI	51%	119–118	L 122–136	✗missed	−15
Nov 20	at GSW	27%	113–122	L 97–120	✓correct	−14
Nov 18	at SAC	41%	118–121	W 109–108	✗missed	+4
Nov 17	at POR	56%	119–116	L 110–114	✗missed	−7
Nov 15	vs WAS	69%	122–115	W 129–117	✓correct	+5
Nov 12	at BOS	14%	110–127	W 117–116	✗missed	+18
Nov 9	vs CHI	57%	119–117	L 113–125	✗missed	−14
Nov 8	at DET	51%	116–115	L 121–122	✗missed	−2
Nov 6	vs NYK	41%	112–116	W 121–116	✗missed	+9
Nov 4	vs BOS	34%	111–118	L 93–123	✓correct	−23
Nov 3	at NOP	31%	111–118	W 126–111	✗missed	+22
Nov 1	vs SAC	36%	113–119	L 115–123	✓correct	−2
Oct 30	at WAS	51%	119–118	L 120–133	✗missed	−14
Oct 28	vs WAS	59%	120–117	L 119–121	✗missed	−5
Oct 27	at OKC	19%	108–121	L 104–128	✓correct	−11
Oct 25	vs CHA	67%	116–110	W 125–120	✓correct	−1
Oct 23	vs BKN	57%	112–110	W 120–116	✓correct	+2

2023-24

11.4 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.7 to 13.3; 20th smallest of 30

−1.7

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -4.3 to 0.9

14.8 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.3

54%

winner picked

82 games involving ATL

36 / 40.2

actual / expected wins

gap −4.2

0.248

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	ATL win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 14	at IND	39%	114–117	L 115–157	✓correct	−39
Apr 12	at MIN	35%	110–115	L 106–109	✓correct	+2
Apr 10	vs CHA	73%	115–105	L 114–115	✗missed	−11
Apr 9	vs MIA	53%	112–113	L 111–117	✓correct	−5
Apr 6	at DEN	35%	109–114	L 110–142	✓correct	−27
Apr 4	at DAL	35%	108–113	L 95–109	✓correct	−9
Apr 3	vs DET	81%	117–102	W 121–113	✓correct	−7
Apr 1	at CHI	43%	115–116	W 113–101	✗missed	+13
Mar 30	vs MIL	57%	112–111	L 113–122	✗missed	−10
Mar 28	vs BOS	35%	106–116	W 123–122	✗missed	+11
Mar 27	vs POR	65%	109–104	W 120–106	✓correct	+9
Mar 25	vs BOS	47%	106–110	W 120–118	✗missed	+6
Mar 23	vs CHA	53%	106–107	W 132–91	✗missed	+42
Mar 21	at PHX	30%	108–116	L 115–128	✓correct	−5
Mar 18	at LAL	39%	112–115	L 105–136	✓correct	−28
Mar 17	at LAC	35%	106–111	W 110–93	✗missed	+22
Mar 15	at UTA	49%	116–114	L 122–124	✗missed	−4
Mar 13	at POR	47%	110–109	L 102–106	✗missed	−5
Mar 10	vs NOP	47%	108–112	L 103–116	✓correct	−9
Mar 8	at MEM	49%	108–106	W 99–92	✓correct	+5
Mar 6	vs CLE	53%	112–113	W 112–101	✗missed	+12
Mar 5	at NYK	30%	106–114	W 116–100	✗missed	+24
Mar 2	at BKN	41%	113–115	L 102–114	✓correct	−10
Feb 29	at BKN	39%	113–116	L 97–124	✓correct	−24
Feb 27	vs UTA	45%	117–122	W 124–97	✗missed	+32
Feb 25	vs ORL	53%	118–119	W 109–92	✗missed	+18
Feb 23	vs TOR	59%	124–122	L 121–123	✗missed	−4
Feb 14	at CHA	59%	122–115	L 99–122	✗missed	−30
Feb 12	vs CHI	51%	120–122	L 126–136	✓correct	−8
Feb 10	vs HOU	63%	125–121	W 122–113	✓correct	+5
Feb 9	at PHI	41%	118–120	W 127–121	✗missed	+8
Feb 7	at BOS	37%	115–119	L 117–125	✓correct	−4
Feb 5	vs LAC	47%	117–121	L 144–149	✓correct	−1
Feb 3	vs GSW	59%	118–116	W 141–134	✓correct	+5
Feb 2	vs PHX	43%	114–120	W 129–120	✗missed	+15
Jan 30	vs LAL	53%	119–120	W 138–122	✗missed	+17
Jan 28	vs TOR	53%	116–117	W 126–125	✗missed	+2
Jan 26	vs DAL	61%	118–115	L 143–148	✗missed	−8
Jan 24	at GSW	35%	118–123	L 112–134	✓correct	−17
Jan 22	at SAC	28%	115–124	L 107–122	✓correct	−6
Jan 20	vs CLE	51%	115–117	L 95–116	✓correct	−19
Jan 19	at MIA	30%	110–118	W 109–108	✗missed	+9
Jan 17	vs ORL	53%	115–116	W 106–104	✗missed	+3
Jan 15	vs SAS	68%	123–116	W 109–99	✓correct	+3
Jan 13	vs WAS	70%	121–113	L 99–127	✗missed	−36
Jan 12	vs IND	53%	120–121	L 108–126	✓correct	−17
Jan 10	vs PHI	57%	118–117	W 139–132	✓correct	+6
Jan 7	at ORL	41%	116–118	L 110–117	✓correct	−5
Jan 5	at IND	35%	118–123	L 116–150	✓correct	−29
Jan 3	vs OKC	51%	119–121	W 141–138	✗missed	+5
Dec 31	at WAS	57%	122–116	W 130–126	✓correct	−2
Dec 29	vs SAC	51%	120–122	L 110–117	✓correct	−5
Dec 26	at CHI	47%	115–114	L 113–118	✗missed	−6
Dec 23	vs MEM	65%	119–114	L 119–125	✗missed	−11
Dec 22	at MIA	47%	119–118	L 113–122	✗missed	−10
Dec 20	at HOU	35%	113–118	W 134–127	✗missed	+12
Dec 18	vs DET	78%	125–112	W 130–124	✓correct	−7
Dec 16	at CLE	37%	113–117	L 119–127	✓correct	−4
Dec 15	at TOR	39%	118–121	W 125–104	✗missed	+24
Dec 13	at TOR	43%	118–119	L 128–135	✓correct	−6
Dec 11	vs DEN	53%	118–119	L 122–129	✓correct	−6
Dec 8	at PHI	24%	113–125	L 114–125	✓correct	+1
Dec 6	vs BKN	57%	121–120	L 113–114	✗missed	−2
Dec 2	at MIL	37%	116–120	L 121–132	✓correct	−7
Nov 30	at SAS	49%	119–117	W 137–135	✓correct	±0
Nov 28	at CLE	37%	115–119	L 105–128	✓correct	−19
Nov 26	at BOS	39%	112–115	L 103–113	✓correct	−7
Nov 25	at WAS	59%	122–115	W 136–108	✓correct	+21
Nov 22	vs BKN	61%	120–117	W 147–145	✓correct	−1
Nov 21	vs IND	59%	120–118	L 152–157	✗missed	−7
Nov 17	vs PHI	63%	118–114	L 116–126	✗missed	−14
Nov 15	vs NYK	61%	116–113	L 114–116	✗missed	−5
Nov 14	at DET	49%	117–115	W 126–120	✓correct	+4
Nov 11	vs MIA	75%	123–112	L 109–117	✗missed	−19
Nov 9	at ORL	47%	115–114	W 120–119	✓correct	±0
Nov 6	at OKC	47%	117–116	L 117–126	✗missed	−10
Nov 4	at NOP	37%	114–118	W 123–105	✗missed	+22
Nov 1	vs WAS	57%	116–115	W 130–121	✓correct	+8
Oct 30	vs MIN	59%	116–114	W 127–113	✓correct	+12
Oct 29	at MIL	41%	116–118	W 127–110	✗missed	+19
Oct 27	vs NYK	53%	112–113	L 120–126	✓correct	−5
Oct 25	at CHA	53%	118–114	L 110–116	✗missed	−10

2022-23

10.2 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 8.9 to 11.5; 14th smallest of 30

−1.1

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -3.2 to 1.2

12.8 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 10.3

52%

winner picked

88 games involving ATL

43 / 46.0

actual / expected wins

gap −3.0

0.258

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 88 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	ATL win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 27 PO	vs BOS	53%	113–112	L 120–128	✗missed	−9
Apr 25 PO	at BOS	24%	107–118	W 119–117	✗missed	+13
Apr 23 PO	vs BOS	47%	112–113	L 121–129	✓correct	−7
Apr 21 PO	vs BOS	45%	113–115	W 130–122	✗missed	+10
Apr 18 PO	at BOS	28%	111–120	L 106–119	✓correct	−4
Apr 15 PO	at BOS	32%	113–120	L 99–112	✓correct	−6
Apr 9	at BOS	37%	119–124	L 114–120	✓correct	−1
Apr 7	vs PHI	63%	118–113	L 131–136	✗missed	−10
Apr 5	vs WAS	65%	124–118	W 134–116	✓correct	+12
Apr 4	at CHI	28%	111–120	W 123–105	✗missed	+27
Apr 2	vs DAL	47%	120–121	W 132–130	✗missed	+3
Mar 31	at BKN	47%	117–118	L 107–124	✓correct	−16
Mar 28	vs CLE	45%	116–118	W 120–118	✗missed	+4
Mar 26	vs MEM	47%	120–121	L 119–123	✓correct	−3
Mar 25	vs IND	68%	123–116	W 143–130	✓correct	+6
Mar 22	at MIN	35%	114–120	L 124–125	✓correct	+5
Mar 21	vs DET	86%	125–108	W 129–107	✓correct	+5
Mar 19	at SAS	76%	126–115	L 118–126	✗missed	−19
Mar 17	vs GSW	53%	120–119	W 127–119	✓correct	+7
Mar 13	vs MIN	58%	121–118	L 115–136	✗missed	−24
Mar 11	vs BOS	42%	116–119	L 125–134	✓correct	−6
Mar 10	at WAS	47%	118–119	W 114–107	✗missed	+8
Mar 8	at WAS	53%	118–117	W 122–120	✓correct	+1
Mar 6	at MIA	47%	116–117	L 128–130	✓correct	−1
Mar 4	at MIA	47%	115–116	L 109–117	✓correct	−7
Mar 3	vs POR	70%	124–116	W 129–111	✓correct	+10
Feb 28	vs WAS	60%	119–115	L 116–119	✗missed	−7
Feb 26	vs BKN	58%	119–116	W 129–127	✓correct	−1
Feb 24	vs CLE	47%	113–114	W 136–119	✗missed	+18
Feb 15	vs NYK	55%	117–115	L 101–122	✗missed	−23
Feb 13	at CHA	72%	124–115	L 138–144	✗missed	−15
Feb 11	vs SAS	84%	124–108	W 125–106	✓correct	+3
Feb 9	vs PHX	53%	119–118	W 116–107	✓correct	+8
Feb 7	at NOP	55%	118–116	L 107–116	✗missed	−11
Feb 4	at DEN	28%	111–120	L 108–128	✓correct	−11
Feb 3	at UTA	45%	117–119	W 115–108	✗missed	+9
Feb 1	at PHX	42%	115–118	W 132–100	✗missed	+35
Jan 30	at POR	47%	117–118	L 125–129	✓correct	−3
Jan 28	vs LAC	65%	118–112	L 113–120	✗missed	−13
Jan 25	at OKC	32%	114–121	W 137–132	✗missed	+12
Jan 23	at CHI	35%	115–121	L 100–111	✓correct	−5
Jan 21	vs CHA	81%	124–110	L 118–122	✗missed	−18
Jan 20	vs NYK	40%	111–115	W 139–124	✗missed	+19
Jan 18	at DAL	53%	116–115	W 130–122	✓correct	+7
Jan 16	vs MIA	32%	110–117	W 121–113	✗missed	+15
Jan 14	at TOR	42%	113–116	W 114–103	✗missed	+14
Jan 13	at IND	40%	112–116	W 113–111	✗missed	+6
Jan 11	vs MIL	47%	114–115	L 105–114	✓correct	−8
Jan 8	at LAC	55%	118–116	W 112–108	✓correct	+2
Jan 6	at LAL	55%	119–117	L 114–130	✗missed	−18
Jan 4	at SAC	45%	117–119	W 120–117	✗missed	+5
Jan 2	at GSW	60%	120–116	L 141–143	✗missed	−6
Dec 30	vs LAL	55%	117–115	L 121–130	✗missed	−11
Dec 28	vs BKN	42%	116–119	L 107–108	✓correct	+2
Dec 27	at IND	55%	118–116	L 114–129	✗missed	−17
Dec 23	vs DET	70%	119–111	W 130–105	✓correct	+17
Dec 21	vs CHI	60%	117–113	L 108–110	✗missed	−6
Dec 19	vs ORL	60%	115–111	W 126–125	✓correct	−3
Dec 16	at CHA	55%	118–116	W 125–106	✓correct	+17
Dec 14	at ORL	58%	111–108	L 124–135	✗missed	−14
Dec 12	at MEM	30%	109–117	L 103–128	✓correct	−17
Dec 11	vs CHI	55%	113–111	W 123–122	✓correct	−1
Dec 9	at BKN	40%	108–112	L 116–120	✓correct	±0
Dec 7	at NYK	45%	110–112	L 89–113	✓correct	−22
Dec 5	vs OKC	55%	115–113	L 114–121	✗missed	−9
Dec 2	vs DEN	58%	112–109	W 117–109	✓correct	+5
Nov 30	at ORL	78%	118–106	W 125–108	✓correct	+5
Nov 28	at PHI	45%	110–112	L 101–104	✓correct	−1
Nov 27	vs MIA	58%	112–109	L 98–106	✗missed	−11
Nov 25	at HOU	72%	119–110	L 122–128	✗missed	−15
Nov 23	vs SAC	68%	120–113	W 115–106	✓correct	+2
Nov 21	at CLE	45%	111–113	L 102–114	✓correct	−10
Nov 19	vs TOR	58%	116–113	W 124–122	✓correct	−1
Nov 16	vs BOS	60%	113–109	L 101–126	✗missed	−29
Nov 14	at MIL	35%	106–112	W 121–106	✗missed	+21
Nov 12	at PHI	55%	111–109	L 109–121	✗missed	−14
Nov 10	vs PHI	47%	108–109	W 104–95	✗missed	+10
Nov 9	vs UTA	45%	110–112	L 119–125	✓correct	−4
Nov 7	vs MIL	47%	107–108	W 117–98	✗missed	+20
Nov 5	vs NOP	42%	108–111	W 124–121	✗missed	+6
Nov 2	at NYK	47%	110–111	W 112–99	✗missed	+14
Oct 31	at TOR	47%	106–107	L 109–139	✓correct	−29
Oct 29	at MIL	47%	107–108	L 115–123	✓correct	−7
Oct 28	at DET	63%	115–110	W 136–112	✓correct	+19
Oct 26	at DET	63%	112–107	W 118–113	✓correct	±0
Oct 23	vs CHA	63%	115–110	L 109–126	✗missed	−22
Oct 21	vs ORL	76%	114–103	W 108–98	✓correct	−1
Oct 19	vs HOU	74%	116–106	W 117–107	✓correct	±0

2022-23 to 2026-27

11.3 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.6 to 12.1; 21st smallest of 30

−0.7

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -1.9 to 0.6

14.5 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

56%

winner picked

350 games involving ATL

174 / 177.7

actual / expected wins

gap −3.7

0.239

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 350 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	ATL win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 7	vs BKN	80%	121–109	W 124–121	✓correct	−9
Nov 6	vs WAS	76%	120–110	W 139–132	✓correct	−3
Nov 4	at WAS	37%	110–114	W 120–105	✗missed	+19
Nov 2	at IND	72%	119–111	W 108–104	✓correct	−4
Oct 31	at NOP	64%	123–118	L 99–121	✗missed	−27
Oct 29	vs CLE	53%	115–114	W 114–111	✓correct	+2
Oct 28	vs MIA	62%	121–117	L 117–129	✗missed	−16
Oct 26	at HOU	33%	109–115	L 110–120	✓correct	−4
Oct 24	vs HOU	38%	108–112	L 114–121	✓correct	−3
Oct 23	at CHA	33%	110–116	W 128–81	✗missed	+53
Oct 21	at ORL	44%	111–113	W 132–125	✗missed	+9
Apr 30 PO	vs NYK	45%	108–110	L 89–140	✓correct	−49
Apr 28 PO	at NYK	47%	106–107	L 97–126	✓correct	−28
Apr 25 PO	vs NYK	42%	106–109	L 98–114	✓correct	−13
Apr 23 PO	vs NYK	44%	105–107	W 109–108	✗missed	+3
Apr 20 PO	at NYK	34%	103–109	W 107–106	✗missed	+7
Apr 18 PO	at NYK	39%	105–109	L 102–113	✓correct	−7
Apr 12	at MIA	36%	118–123	L 117–143	✓correct	−21
Apr 10	vs CLE	74%	122–113	W 124–102	✓correct	+13
Apr 8	at CLE	47%	119–120	L 116–122	✓correct	−5
Apr 6	vs NYK	42%	112–115	L 105–108	✓correct	±0
Apr 3	at BKN	80%	122–110	W 141–107	✓correct	+22
Apr 1	at ORL	61%	120–116	W 130–101	✓correct	+25
Mar 30	vs BOS	47%	111–112	W 112–102	✗missed	+11
Mar 28	vs SAC	82%	123–110	W 123–113	✓correct	−3
Mar 27	at BOS	47%	113–114	L 102–109	✓correct	−6
Mar 25	at DET	39%	114–118	W 130–129	✗missed	+5
Mar 23	vs MEM	80%	125–113	W 146–107	✓correct	+27
Mar 21	vs GSW	76%	121–111	W 126–110	✓correct	+6
Mar 20	at HOU	47%	114–115	L 95–117	✓correct	−21
Mar 18	at DAL	69%	119–112	W 135–120	✓correct	+8
Mar 16	vs ORL	59%	117–114	W 124–112	✓correct	+9
Mar 14	vs MIL	83%	123–109	W 122–99	✓correct	+9
Mar 12	vs BKN	89%	125–107	W 108–97	✓correct	−7
Mar 10	vs DAL	74%	122–113	W 124–112	✓correct	+3
Mar 7	vs PHI	71%	120–112	W 125–116	✓correct	+1
Mar 4	at MIL	64%	118–113	W 131–113	✓correct	+13
Mar 1	vs POR	67%	119–113	W 135–101	✓correct	+28
Feb 26	vs WAS	78%	123–112	W 126–96	✓correct	+19
Feb 24	vs WAS	74%	122–113	W 119–98	✓correct	+12
Feb 22	vs BKN	74%	120–111	W 115–104	✓correct	+2
Feb 20	vs MIA	47%	118–119	L 97–128	✓correct	−30
Feb 19	at PHI	53%	116–115	W 117–107	✓correct	+9
Feb 11	at CHA	34%	112–118	L 107–110	✓correct	+3
Feb 9	at MIN	41%	115–118	L 116–138	✓correct	−19
Feb 7	vs CHA	47%	111–112	L 119–126	✓correct	−6
Feb 5	vs UTA	78%	123–112	W 121–119	✓correct	−9
Feb 3	at MIA	39%	116–120	W 127–115	✗missed	+16
Jan 31	at IND	53%	116–115	L 124–129	✗missed	−6
Jan 29	vs HOU	47%	110–111	L 86–104	✓correct	−17
Jan 28	at BOS	34%	110–116	W 117–106	✗missed	+17
Jan 26	vs IND	67%	117–111	W 132–116	✓correct	+10
Jan 23	vs PHX	39%	113–117	W 110–103	✗missed	+11
Jan 21	at MEM	44%	115–117	W 124–122	✗missed	+4
Jan 19	vs MIL	61%	117–113	L 110–112	✗missed	−6
Jan 17	vs BOS	42%	111–114	L 106–132	✓correct	−23
Jan 15	at POR	53%	117–116	L 101–117	✗missed	−17
Jan 13	at LAL	56%	117–115	L 116–141	✗missed	−27
Jan 11	at GSW	44%	117–119	W 124–111	✗missed	+15
Jan 9	at DEN	34%	119–125	W 110–87	✗missed	+29
Jan 7	vs NOP	64%	123–118	W 117–100	✓correct	+12
Jan 5	at TOR	39%	115–119	L 100–118	✓correct	−14
Jan 3	at TOR	31%	112–119	L 117–134	✓correct	−10
Jan 2	at NYK	29%	120–128	W 111–99	✗missed	+20
Dec 31	vs MIN	29%	116–124	W 126–102	✗missed	+32
Dec 29	at OKC	8%	110–131	L 129–140	✓correct	+10
Dec 27	vs NYK	39%	117–121	L 125–128	✓correct	+1
Dec 26	vs MIA	56%	120–118	L 111–126	✗missed	−17
Dec 23	vs CHI	53%	121–120	L 123–126	✗missed	−4
Dec 21	vs CHI	56%	120–118	L 150–152	✗missed	−4
Dec 19	vs SAS	42%	119–122	L 98–126	✓correct	−25
Dec 18	at CHA	58%	117–114	L 126–133	✗missed	−10
Dec 14	vs PHI	59%	119–116	W 120–117	✓correct	±0
Dec 12	at DET	34%	115–121	L 115–142	✓correct	−21
Dec 6	at WAS	80%	125–113	W 131–116	✓correct	+3
Dec 5	vs DEN	47%	119–120	L 133–134	✓correct	±0
Dec 3	vs LAC	67%	121–115	L 92–115	✗missed	−29
Dec 1	at DET	36%	116–121	L 98–99	✓correct	+4
Nov 30	at PHI	58%	120–117	W 142–134	✓correct	+5
Nov 28	vs CLE	53%	119–118	W 130–123	✓correct	+6
Nov 25	at WAS	83%	126–112	L 113–132	✗missed	−33
Nov 23	vs CHA	83%	122–108	W 113–110	✓correct	−11
Nov 22	at NOP	78%	123–112	W 115–98	✓correct	+6
Nov 20	at SAS	53%	116–115	L 126–135	✗missed	−10
Nov 18	vs DET	53%	117–116	L 112–120	✗missed	−9
Nov 16	at PHX	47%	116–117	W 124–122	✗missed	+3
Nov 13	at UTA	69%	119–112	W 132–122	✓correct	+3
Nov 12	at SAC	69%	120–113	W 133–100	✓correct	+26
Nov 10	at LAC	53%	115–114	W 105–102	✓correct	+2
Nov 8	vs LAL	42%	113–116	W 122–102	✗missed	+23
Nov 7	vs TOR	61%	120–116	L 97–109	✗missed	−16
Nov 4	vs ORL	67%	118–112	W 127–112	✓correct	+9
Nov 2	at CLE	44%	116–118	L 109–117	✓correct	−6
Oct 31	at IND	44%	114–116	W 128–108	✗missed	+22
Oct 29	at BKN	66%	121–115	W 117–112	✓correct	−1
Oct 27	at CHI	31%	116–123	L 123–128	✓correct	+2
Oct 25	vs OKC	31%	116–123	L 100–117	✓correct	−10
Oct 24	at ORL	41%	113–116	W 111–107	✗missed	+7
Oct 22	vs TOR	61%	121–117	L 118–138	✗missed	−24
Apr 13	vs ORL	44%	111–114	W 117–105	✗missed	+15
Apr 11	at PHI	71%	123–114	W 124–110	✓correct	+5
Apr 10	at BKN	64%	119–113	W 133–109	✓correct	+18
Apr 8	at ORL	31%	111–118	L 112–119	✓correct	±0
Apr 6	vs UTA	79%	126–114	W 147–134	✓correct	+1
Apr 5	vs NYK	49%	116–117	L 105–121	✓correct	−15
Apr 2	at DAL	51%	121–120	L 118–120	✗missed	−3
Apr 1	vs POR	62%	118–114	L 113–127	✗missed	−18
Mar 30	at MIL	36%	113–118	W 145–124	✗missed	+26
Mar 27	at MIA	51%	114–113	L 112–122	✗missed	−11
Mar 25	at HOU	29%	113–121	L 114–121	✓correct	+1
Mar 23	vs PHI	73%	125–116	W 132–119	✓correct	+4
Mar 22	vs GSW	54%	119–118	W 124–115	✓correct	+8
Mar 18	at CHA	56%	118–115	W 134–102	✓correct	+29
Mar 16	at BKN	59%	115–111	L 114–122	✗missed	−12
Mar 14	vs LAC	54%	117–116	L 98–121	✗missed	−24
Mar 12	vs CHA	79%	125–113	W 123–110	✓correct	+1
Mar 10	vs PHI	77%	126–115	W 132–123	✓correct	−2
Mar 8	vs IND	44%	120–123	W 120–118	✗missed	+5
Mar 6	vs IND	41%	119–123	W 124–118	✗missed	+10
Mar 4	vs MIL	46%	118–120	L 121–127	✓correct	−4
Mar 3	at MEM	27%	116–125	W 132–130	✗missed	+11
Feb 28	vs OKC	41%	119–123	L 119–135	✓correct	−12
Feb 26	at MIA	46%	114–115	L 109–131	✓correct	−21
Feb 24	vs MIA	62%	121–117	W 98–86	✓correct	+8
Feb 23	vs DET	44%	118–121	L 143–148	✓correct	−2
Feb 20	vs ORL	62%	116–112	L 108–114	✗missed	−10
Feb 12	at NYK	29%	113–121	L 148–149	✓correct	+7
Feb 10	at ORL	46%	114–115	W 112–106	✗missed	+7
Feb 8	at WAS	56%	118–115	W 125–111	✓correct	+11
Feb 7	vs MIL	44%	117–120	W 115–110	✗missed	+8
Feb 5	vs SAS	54%	118–117	L 125–126	✗missed	−2
Feb 3	at DET	27%	111–120	W 132–130	✗missed	+11
Feb 1	at IND	23%	110–121	L 127–132	✓correct	+6
Jan 30	at CLE	19%	110–123	L 115–137	✓correct	−9
Jan 28	vs HOU	39%	115–120	L 96–100	✓correct	+1
Jan 27	at MIN	31%	112–119	L 92–100	✓correct	−1
Jan 25	vs TOR	69%	118–111	L 94–117	✗missed	−30
Jan 23	vs TOR	64%	118–113	L 119–122	✗missed	−8
Jan 22	vs DET	54%	116–115	L 104–114	✗missed	−11
Jan 20	at NYK	31%	113–120	L 110–119	✓correct	−2
Jan 18	at BOS	27%	109–118	W 119–115	✗missed	+13
Jan 15	at CHI	31%	118–125	W 110–94	✗missed	+23
Jan 14	vs PHX	54%	118–117	W 122–117	✓correct	+4
Jan 9	at PHX	43%	115–117	L 115–123	✓correct	−6
Jan 7	at UTA	64%	120–114	W 124–121	✓correct	−3
Jan 4	at LAC	36%	113–118	L 105–131	✓correct	−21
Jan 3	at LAL	38%	115–119	L 102–119	✓correct	−13
Jan 1	at DEN	36%	117–122	L 120–139	✓correct	−14
Dec 29	at TOR	54%	119–117	W 136–107	✓correct	+27
Dec 28	vs MIA	49%	113–114	W 120–110	✗missed	+11
Dec 26	vs CHI	59%	118–115	W 141–133	✓correct	+5
Dec 23	vs MIN	49%	113–114	W 117–104	✗missed	+14
Dec 21	vs MEM	44%	113–116	L 112–128	✓correct	−13
Dec 19	at SAS	51%	117–116	L 126–133	✗missed	−8
Dec 11	at NYK	27%	113–122	W 108–100	✗missed	+17
Dec 8	vs DEN	54%	118–117	L 111–141	✗missed	−31
Dec 6	vs LAL	71%	120–112	W 134–132	✓correct	−6
Dec 4	at MIL	36%	115–120	W 119–104	✗missed	+20
Dec 2	vs NOP	69%	117–110	W 124–112	✓correct	+5
Nov 30	at CHA	66%	118–111	W 107–104	✓correct	−4
Nov 29	vs CLE	36%	116–122	W 117–101	✗missed	+22
Nov 27	at CLE	18%	112–126	W 135–124	✗missed	+25
Nov 25	vs DAL	44%	114–117	L 119–129	✓correct	−7
Nov 22	at CHI	51%	119–118	L 122–136	✗missed	−15
Nov 20	at GSW	27%	113–122	L 97–120	✓correct	−14
Nov 18	at SAC	41%	118–121	W 109–108	✗missed	+4
Nov 17	at POR	56%	119–116	L 110–114	✗missed	−7
Nov 15	vs WAS	69%	122–115	W 129–117	✓correct	+5
Nov 12	at BOS	14%	110–127	W 117–116	✗missed	+18
Nov 9	vs CHI	57%	119–117	L 113–125	✗missed	−14
Nov 8	at DET	51%	116–115	L 121–122	✗missed	−2
Nov 6	vs NYK	41%	112–116	W 121–116	✗missed	+9
Nov 4	vs BOS	34%	111–118	L 93–123	✓correct	−23
Nov 3	at NOP	31%	111–118	W 126–111	✗missed	+22
Nov 1	vs SAC	36%	113–119	L 115–123	✓correct	−2
Oct 30	at WAS	51%	119–118	L 120–133	✗missed	−14
Oct 28	vs WAS	59%	120–117	L 119–121	✗missed	−5
Oct 27	at OKC	19%	108–121	L 104–128	✓correct	−11
Oct 25	vs CHA	67%	116–110	W 125–120	✓correct	−1
Oct 23	vs BKN	57%	112–110	W 120–116	✓correct	+2
Apr 14	at IND	39%	114–117	L 115–157	✓correct	−39
Apr 12	at MIN	35%	110–115	L 106–109	✓correct	+2
Apr 10	vs CHA	73%	115–105	L 114–115	✗missed	−11
Apr 9	vs MIA	53%	112–113	L 111–117	✓correct	−5
Apr 6	at DEN	35%	109–114	L 110–142	✓correct	−27
Apr 4	at DAL	35%	108–113	L 95–109	✓correct	−9
Apr 3	vs DET	81%	117–102	W 121–113	✓correct	−7
Apr 1	at CHI	43%	115–116	W 113–101	✗missed	+13
Mar 30	vs MIL	57%	112–111	L 113–122	✗missed	−10
Mar 28	vs BOS	35%	106–116	W 123–122	✗missed	+11
Mar 27	vs POR	65%	109–104	W 120–106	✓correct	+9
Mar 25	vs BOS	47%	106–110	W 120–118	✗missed	+6
Mar 23	vs CHA	53%	106–107	W 132–91	✗missed	+42
Mar 21	at PHX	30%	108–116	L 115–128	✓correct	−5
Mar 18	at LAL	39%	112–115	L 105–136	✓correct	−28
Mar 17	at LAC	35%	106–111	W 110–93	✗missed	+22
Mar 15	at UTA	49%	116–114	L 122–124	✗missed	−4
Mar 13	at POR	47%	110–109	L 102–106	✗missed	−5
Mar 10	vs NOP	47%	108–112	L 103–116	✓correct	−9
Mar 8	at MEM	49%	108–106	W 99–92	✓correct	+5
Mar 6	vs CLE	53%	112–113	W 112–101	✗missed	+12
Mar 5	at NYK	30%	106–114	W 116–100	✗missed	+24
Mar 2	at BKN	41%	113–115	L 102–114	✓correct	−10
Feb 29	at BKN	39%	113–116	L 97–124	✓correct	−24
Feb 27	vs UTA	45%	117–122	W 124–97	✗missed	+32
Feb 25	vs ORL	53%	118–119	W 109–92	✗missed	+18
Feb 23	vs TOR	59%	124–122	L 121–123	✗missed	−4
Feb 14	at CHA	59%	122–115	L 99–122	✗missed	−30
Feb 12	vs CHI	51%	120–122	L 126–136	✓correct	−8
Feb 10	vs HOU	63%	125–121	W 122–113	✓correct	+5
Feb 9	at PHI	41%	118–120	W 127–121	✗missed	+8
Feb 7	at BOS	37%	115–119	L 117–125	✓correct	−4
Feb 5	vs LAC	47%	117–121	L 144–149	✓correct	−1
Feb 3	vs GSW	59%	118–116	W 141–134	✓correct	+5
Feb 2	vs PHX	43%	114–120	W 129–120	✗missed	+15
Jan 30	vs LAL	53%	119–120	W 138–122	✗missed	+17
Jan 28	vs TOR	53%	116–117	W 126–125	✗missed	+2
Jan 26	vs DAL	61%	118–115	L 143–148	✗missed	−8
Jan 24	at GSW	35%	118–123	L 112–134	✓correct	−17
Jan 22	at SAC	28%	115–124	L 107–122	✓correct	−6
Jan 20	vs CLE	51%	115–117	L 95–116	✓correct	−19
Jan 19	at MIA	30%	110–118	W 109–108	✗missed	+9
Jan 17	vs ORL	53%	115–116	W 106–104	✗missed	+3
Jan 15	vs SAS	68%	123–116	W 109–99	✓correct	+3
Jan 13	vs WAS	70%	121–113	L 99–127	✗missed	−36
Jan 12	vs IND	53%	120–121	L 108–126	✓correct	−17
Jan 10	vs PHI	57%	118–117	W 139–132	✓correct	+6
Jan 7	at ORL	41%	116–118	L 110–117	✓correct	−5
Jan 5	at IND	35%	118–123	L 116–150	✓correct	−29
Jan 3	vs OKC	51%	119–121	W 141–138	✗missed	+5
Dec 31	at WAS	57%	122–116	W 130–126	✓correct	−2
Dec 29	vs SAC	51%	120–122	L 110–117	✓correct	−5
Dec 26	at CHI	47%	115–114	L 113–118	✗missed	−6
Dec 23	vs MEM	65%	119–114	L 119–125	✗missed	−11
Dec 22	at MIA	47%	119–118	L 113–122	✗missed	−10
Dec 20	at HOU	35%	113–118	W 134–127	✗missed	+12
Dec 18	vs DET	78%	125–112	W 130–124	✓correct	−7
Dec 16	at CLE	37%	113–117	L 119–127	✓correct	−4
Dec 15	at TOR	39%	118–121	W 125–104	✗missed	+24
Dec 13	at TOR	43%	118–119	L 128–135	✓correct	−6
Dec 11	vs DEN	53%	118–119	L 122–129	✓correct	−6
Dec 8	at PHI	24%	113–125	L 114–125	✓correct	+1
Dec 6	vs BKN	57%	121–120	L 113–114	✗missed	−2
Dec 2	at MIL	37%	116–120	L 121–132	✓correct	−7
Nov 30	at SAS	49%	119–117	W 137–135	✓correct	±0
Nov 28	at CLE	37%	115–119	L 105–128	✓correct	−19
Nov 26	at BOS	39%	112–115	L 103–113	✓correct	−7
Nov 25	at WAS	59%	122–115	W 136–108	✓correct	+21
Nov 22	vs BKN	61%	120–117	W 147–145	✓correct	−1
Nov 21	vs IND	59%	120–118	L 152–157	✗missed	−7
Nov 17	vs PHI	63%	118–114	L 116–126	✗missed	−14
Nov 15	vs NYK	61%	116–113	L 114–116	✗missed	−5
Nov 14	at DET	49%	117–115	W 126–120	✓correct	+4
Nov 11	vs MIA	75%	123–112	L 109–117	✗missed	−19
Nov 9	at ORL	47%	115–114	W 120–119	✓correct	±0
Nov 6	at OKC	47%	117–116	L 117–126	✗missed	−10
Nov 4	at NOP	37%	114–118	W 123–105	✗missed	+22
Nov 1	vs WAS	57%	116–115	W 130–121	✓correct	+8
Oct 30	vs MIN	59%	116–114	W 127–113	✓correct	+12
Oct 29	at MIL	41%	116–118	W 127–110	✗missed	+19
Oct 27	vs NYK	53%	112–113	L 120–126	✓correct	−5
Oct 25	at CHA	53%	118–114	L 110–116	✗missed	−10
Apr 27 PO	vs BOS	53%	113–112	L 120–128	✗missed	−9
Apr 25 PO	at BOS	24%	107–118	W 119–117	✗missed	+13
Apr 23 PO	vs BOS	47%	112–113	L 121–129	✓correct	−7
Apr 21 PO	vs BOS	45%	113–115	W 130–122	✗missed	+10
Apr 18 PO	at BOS	28%	111–120	L 106–119	✓correct	−4
Apr 15 PO	at BOS	32%	113–120	L 99–112	✓correct	−6
Apr 9	at BOS	37%	119–124	L 114–120	✓correct	−1
Apr 7	vs PHI	63%	118–113	L 131–136	✗missed	−10
Apr 5	vs WAS	65%	124–118	W 134–116	✓correct	+12
Apr 4	at CHI	28%	111–120	W 123–105	✗missed	+27
Apr 2	vs DAL	47%	120–121	W 132–130	✗missed	+3
Mar 31	at BKN	47%	117–118	L 107–124	✓correct	−16
Mar 28	vs CLE	45%	116–118	W 120–118	✗missed	+4
Mar 26	vs MEM	47%	120–121	L 119–123	✓correct	−3
Mar 25	vs IND	68%	123–116	W 143–130	✓correct	+6
Mar 22	at MIN	35%	114–120	L 124–125	✓correct	+5
Mar 21	vs DET	86%	125–108	W 129–107	✓correct	+5
Mar 19	at SAS	76%	126–115	L 118–126	✗missed	−19
Mar 17	vs GSW	53%	120–119	W 127–119	✓correct	+7
Mar 13	vs MIN	58%	121–118	L 115–136	✗missed	−24
Mar 11	vs BOS	42%	116–119	L 125–134	✓correct	−6
Mar 10	at WAS	47%	118–119	W 114–107	✗missed	+8
Mar 8	at WAS	53%	118–117	W 122–120	✓correct	+1
Mar 6	at MIA	47%	116–117	L 128–130	✓correct	−1
Mar 4	at MIA	47%	115–116	L 109–117	✓correct	−7
Mar 3	vs POR	70%	124–116	W 129–111	✓correct	+10
Feb 28	vs WAS	60%	119–115	L 116–119	✗missed	−7
Feb 26	vs BKN	58%	119–116	W 129–127	✓correct	−1
Feb 24	vs CLE	47%	113–114	W 136–119	✗missed	+18
Feb 15	vs NYK	55%	117–115	L 101–122	✗missed	−23
Feb 13	at CHA	72%	124–115	L 138–144	✗missed	−15
Feb 11	vs SAS	84%	124–108	W 125–106	✓correct	+3
Feb 9	vs PHX	53%	119–118	W 116–107	✓correct	+8
Feb 7	at NOP	55%	118–116	L 107–116	✗missed	−11
Feb 4	at DEN	28%	111–120	L 108–128	✓correct	−11
Feb 3	at UTA	45%	117–119	W 115–108	✗missed	+9
Feb 1	at PHX	42%	115–118	W 132–100	✗missed	+35
Jan 30	at POR	47%	117–118	L 125–129	✓correct	−3
Jan 28	vs LAC	65%	118–112	L 113–120	✗missed	−13
Jan 25	at OKC	32%	114–121	W 137–132	✗missed	+12
Jan 23	at CHI	35%	115–121	L 100–111	✓correct	−5
Jan 21	vs CHA	81%	124–110	L 118–122	✗missed	−18
Jan 20	vs NYK	40%	111–115	W 139–124	✗missed	+19
Jan 18	at DAL	53%	116–115	W 130–122	✓correct	+7
Jan 16	vs MIA	32%	110–117	W 121–113	✗missed	+15
Jan 14	at TOR	42%	113–116	W 114–103	✗missed	+14
Jan 13	at IND	40%	112–116	W 113–111	✗missed	+6
Jan 11	vs MIL	47%	114–115	L 105–114	✓correct	−8
Jan 8	at LAC	55%	118–116	W 112–108	✓correct	+2
Jan 6	at LAL	55%	119–117	L 114–130	✗missed	−18
Jan 4	at SAC	45%	117–119	W 120–117	✗missed	+5
Jan 2	at GSW	60%	120–116	L 141–143	✗missed	−6
Dec 30	vs LAL	55%	117–115	L 121–130	✗missed	−11
Dec 28	vs BKN	42%	116–119	L 107–108	✓correct	+2
Dec 27	at IND	55%	118–116	L 114–129	✗missed	−17
Dec 23	vs DET	70%	119–111	W 130–105	✓correct	+17
Dec 21	vs CHI	60%	117–113	L 108–110	✗missed	−6
Dec 19	vs ORL	60%	115–111	W 126–125	✓correct	−3
Dec 16	at CHA	55%	118–116	W 125–106	✓correct	+17
Dec 14	at ORL	58%	111–108	L 124–135	✗missed	−14
Dec 12	at MEM	30%	109–117	L 103–128	✓correct	−17
Dec 11	vs CHI	55%	113–111	W 123–122	✓correct	−1
Dec 9	at BKN	40%	108–112	L 116–120	✓correct	±0
Dec 7	at NYK	45%	110–112	L 89–113	✓correct	−22
Dec 5	vs OKC	55%	115–113	L 114–121	✗missed	−9
Dec 2	vs DEN	58%	112–109	W 117–109	✓correct	+5
Nov 30	at ORL	78%	118–106	W 125–108	✓correct	+5
Nov 28	at PHI	45%	110–112	L 101–104	✓correct	−1
Nov 27	vs MIA	58%	112–109	L 98–106	✗missed	−11
Nov 25	at HOU	72%	119–110	L 122–128	✗missed	−15
Nov 23	vs SAC	68%	120–113	W 115–106	✓correct	+2
Nov 21	at CLE	45%	111–113	L 102–114	✓correct	−10
Nov 19	vs TOR	58%	116–113	W 124–122	✓correct	−1
Nov 16	vs BOS	60%	113–109	L 101–126	✗missed	−29
Nov 14	at MIL	35%	106–112	W 121–106	✗missed	+21
Nov 12	at PHI	55%	111–109	L 109–121	✗missed	−14
Nov 10	vs PHI	47%	108–109	W 104–95	✗missed	+10
Nov 9	vs UTA	45%	110–112	L 119–125	✓correct	−4
Nov 7	vs MIL	47%	107–108	W 117–98	✗missed	+20
Nov 5	vs NOP	42%	108–111	W 124–121	✗missed	+6
Nov 2	at NYK	47%	110–111	W 112–99	✗missed	+14
Oct 31	at TOR	47%	106–107	L 109–139	✓correct	−29
Oct 29	at MIL	47%	107–108	L 115–123	✓correct	−7
Oct 28	at DET	63%	115–110	W 136–112	✓correct	+19
Oct 26	at DET	63%	112–107	W 118–113	✓correct	±0
Oct 23	vs CHA	63%	115–110	L 109–126	✗missed	−22
Oct 21	vs ORL	76%	114–103	W 108–98	✓correct	−1
Oct 19	vs HOU	74%	116–106	W 117–107	✓correct	±0

Surprise games

All ATL surprises

Across every graded season. The percentage is the pregame chance the forecast gave the team that won.

Most unexpected ATL wins

14%ATL beat BOS117–116Nov 12, 2024-25 · forecast BOS127–110 · missed margin by 18
18%ATL beat CLE135–124Nov 27, 2024-25 · forecast CLE126–112 · missed margin by 25
24%ATL beat BOS119–117Apr 25, 2022-23 · playoffs · forecast BOS118–107 · missed margin by 13
27%ATL beat MEM132–130Mar 3, 2024-25 · forecast MEM125–116 · missed margin by 11
27%ATL beat DET132–130Feb 3, 2024-25 · forecast DET120–111 · missed margin by 11

Most unexpected ATL losses

17%WAS beat ATL132–113Nov 25, 2025-26 · forecast ATL126–112 · missed margin by 33
19%CHA beat ATL122–118Jan 21, 2022-23 · forecast ATL124–110 · missed margin by 18
24%SAS beat ATL126–118Mar 19, 2022-23 · forecast ATL126–115 · missed margin by 19
25%MIA beat ATL117–109Nov 11, 2023-24 · forecast ATL123–112 · missed margin by 19
27%CHA beat ATL115–114Apr 10, 2023-24 · forecast ATL115–105 · missed margin by 11

Largest margin misses

33%ATL beat CHA128–81Oct 23, 2026-27 · forecast CHA116–110 · missed margin by 53
55%NYK beat ATL140–89Apr 30, 2025-26 · playoffs · forecast NYK110–108 · missed margin by 49
53%ATL beat CHA132–91Mar 23, 2023-24 · forecast CHA107–106 · missed margin by 42
61%IND beat ATL157–115Apr 14, 2023-24 · forecast IND117–114 · missed margin by 39
30%WAS beat ATL127–99Jan 13, 2023-24 · forecast ATL121–113 · missed margin by 36

Definitions

Expected wins: The sum of the team's pregame win probabilities over the games in the sample (home: the stored home win probability; road: one minus it).
Wins vs expectation: Actual wins minus expected wins. It describes results relative to the forecasts, not why they differed.
Margin error: The team's actual margin minus its forecast margin, in points. Positive means the team did better than forecast.
Error variability: The sample standard deviation of margin errors. Higher means the forecasts for this team's games were less consistent.
Winner picked: The share of the team's games in which the forecast winner won, whichever team that was. Teams play different mixes of close and lopsided games, so this alone is not a fair measure of how hard a team is to forecast.
Average margin miss: The mean absolute margin error. This is the headline measure of how hard a team's games were for this model to forecast.
Average margin error: The mean signed margin error. Consistently positive means the model underrated the team in this sample; negative, overrated.
Brier score: The mean squared difference between the team's pregame win probability and the result (1 for a win, 0 for a loss). It rewards confident correct forecasts and penalises confident wrong ones.
Intervals and samples: Ranges are 90% bootstrap intervals (1,000 resamples of the team's games). Under 20 games no ranking is shown; 20 to 59 games is exploratory; 60 or more is roughly a full season.

More on how forecasts are made and tested: Methodology.

Upcoming

Recent results

Predictability

2026-27 (in progress)

2025-26

2024-25

2023-24

2022-23

2022-23 to 2026-27

Surprise games

Most unexpected ATL wins

Most unexpected ATL losses

Largest margin misses

Recent results the forecast got wrong

Definitions