Eastern Conference · 2026-27

Charlotte Hornets CHA

3–7

2026-27 record

1495

Elo rating

with the forecast of Nov 6

99.8

Offensive rating

last 10 games

113.9

Defensive rating

last 10, lower is better

96.7

Pace

possessions per game

Hover the ball to see a season.

Every graded CHA game, one dot each, oldest at the center. 234 of 338 forecasts picked the winner (colored dots).

Elo rating, recent games

Pregame Elo stored with each of CHA's last 82 forecasts. Dashed: 1500, the long-run average.

Elo rating recorded with each team's most recent forecast. Higher is stronger; 1500 is the long-run average. CHA ranks 16 of 30.

Upcoming

Schedule

Nov 9 7:00 PM ET

CLE Cleveland Cavaliers 5–5 –

@CHA Charlotte Hornets 3–7 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 12 9:00 PM ET

CHA Charlotte Hornets 3–7 –

@PHX Phoenix Suns 3–5 –

Forecast coming Details

Recent results

Predictability

How closely the forecasts tracked CHA games. A team can be hard for this model to forecast whether it is good or bad: misses come from the model's limits, roster changes, missing information and ordinary game-to-game variation. Compare all 30 teams

2026-27 (in progress)

Small sample: 10 games. These figures are a running log, not a measurement, and no ranking is shown.

17.3 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.3 to 26.3

−17.1

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -26.3 to -8.8

16.9 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.7

60%

winner picked

10 games involving CHA

3 / 5.8

actual / expected wins

gap −2.8

0.235

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 10 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	CHA win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 6	vs BOS	30%	104–111	L 80–119	✓correct	−32
Nov 4	at BKN	61%	108–103	L 104–114	✗missed	−15
Nov 2	vs DET	36%	106–111	L 91–124	✓correct	−28
Oct 31	vs PHI	62%	111–107	L 104–109	✗missed	−9
Oct 30	at WAS	70%	120–113	L 79–95	✗missed	−23
Oct 28	at DET	44%	109–111	L 89–97	✓correct	−6
Oct 26	vs WAS	78%	123–112	W 110–103	✓correct	−4
Oct 24	vs MIA	62%	116–112	W 115–110	✓correct	+1
Oct 23	vs ATL	67%	116–110	L 81–128	✗missed	−53
Oct 21	at BKN	74%	118–109	W 110–103	✓correct	−2

2025-26

Across 82 graded games, CHA finished an average of 4.8 points better than the forecast margin (90% interval +1.8 to +7.5).

13.3 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 11.6 to 15.2; 29th smallest of 30

+4.8

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval 1.8 to 7.5

16.0 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.4

67%

winner picked

82 games involving CHA

44 / 41.1

actual / expected wins

gap +2.9

0.221

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	CHA win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 12	at NYK	61%	113–109	W 110–96	✓correct	+10
Apr 10	vs DET	44%	109–111	L 100–118	✓correct	−16
Apr 7	at BOS	64%	112–107	L 102–113	✗missed	−16
Apr 5	at MIN	61%	112–108	W 122–108	✓correct	+10
Apr 3	vs IND	85%	125–110	W 129–108	✓correct	+6
Apr 2	vs PHX	61%	114–110	W 127–107	✓correct	+16
Mar 31	at BKN	74%	117–108	W 117–86	✓correct	+22
Mar 29	vs BOS	56%	110–108	L 99–114	✗missed	−17
Mar 28	vs PHI	76%	122–112	L 114–118	✗missed	−14
Mar 26	vs NYK	39%	110–114	W 114–103	✗missed	+15
Mar 24	vs SAC	87%	123–106	W 134–90	✓correct	+27
Mar 21	vs MEM	83%	122–108	W 124–101	✓correct	+9
Mar 19	vs ORL	59%	115–112	W 130–111	✓correct	+16
Mar 17	vs MIA	69%	118–111	W 136–106	✓correct	+23
Mar 14	at SAS	47%	114–115	L 102–115	✓correct	−12
Mar 11	at SAC	81%	119–106	W 117–109	✓correct	−5
Mar 10	at POR	61%	114–110	W 103–101	✓correct	−2
Mar 8	at PHX	71%	113–105	L 99–111	✗missed	−20
Mar 6	vs MIA	71%	118–110	L 120–128	✗missed	−16
Mar 4	at BOS	56%	111–109	W 118–89	✓correct	+27
Mar 3	vs DAL	89%	126–108	W 117–90	✓correct	+9
Feb 28	vs POR	74%	120–111	W 109–93	✓correct	+7
Feb 26	at IND	81%	120–107	W 133–109	✓correct	+11
Feb 24	at CHI	76%	117–107	W 131–99	✓correct	+22
Feb 22	at WAS	74%	117–108	W 129–112	✓correct	+8
Feb 20	vs CLE	42%	111–114	L 113–118	✓correct	−2
Feb 19	vs HOU	56%	108–106	L 101–105	✗missed	−6
Feb 11	vs ATL	67%	118–112	W 110–107	✓correct	−3
Feb 9	vs DET	47%	113–114	L 104–110	✓correct	−5
Feb 7	at ATL	53%	112–111	W 126–119	✓correct	+6
Feb 5	at HOU	53%	111–110	W 109–99	✓correct	+9
Feb 2	vs NOP	76%	118–108	W 102–95	✓correct	−3
Jan 31	vs SAS	53%	110–109	W 111–106	✓correct	+4
Jan 29	at DAL	56%	115–113	W 123–121	✓correct	±0
Jan 28	at MEM	61%	115–111	W 112–97	✓correct	+11
Jan 26	vs PHI	61%	112–108	W 130–93	✓correct	+33
Jan 24	vs WAS	86%	120–104	W 119–115	✓correct	−12
Jan 22	at ORL	58%	113–110	W 124–97	✓correct	+24
Jan 21	vs CLE	64%	118–113	L 87–94	✗missed	−12
Jan 18	at DEN	41%	114–117	W 110–87	✗missed	+26
Jan 17	at GSW	47%	115–116	L 116–136	✓correct	−19
Jan 15	at LAL	53%	115–114	W 135–117	✓correct	+17
Jan 12	at LAC	53%	113–112	L 109–117	✗missed	−9
Jan 10	at UTA	64%	119–114	W 150–95	✓correct	+50
Jan 8	vs IND	71%	123–115	L 112–114	✗missed	−10
Jan 7	vs TOR	47%	114–115	L 96–97	✓correct	±0
Jan 5	at OKC	10%	109–128	W 124–97	✗missed	+46
Jan 3	at CHI	39%	118–122	W 112–99	✗missed	+17
Jan 2	at MIL	44%	113–115	L 121–122	✓correct	+1
Dec 31	vs GSW	39%	114–118	L 125–132	✓correct	−3
Dec 29	vs MIL	56%	114–112	L 113–123	✗missed	−12
Dec 26	at ORL	36%	114–119	W 120–105	✗missed	+20
Dec 23	vs WAS	64%	117–112	W 126–109	✓correct	+12
Dec 22	at CLE	34%	115–121	L 132–139	✓correct	−1
Dec 20	at DET	22%	111–122	L 86–112	✓correct	−15
Dec 18	vs ATL	42%	114–117	W 133–126	✗missed	+10
Dec 14	at CLE	20%	109–121	W 119–111	✗missed	+20
Dec 12	vs CHI	36%	112–117	L 126–129	✓correct	+2
Dec 7	vs DEN	24%	109–119	L 106–115	✓correct	+1
Dec 5	at TOR	24%	106–116	W 111–86	✗missed	+35
Dec 3	at NYK	20%	107–119	L 104–119	✓correct	−3
Dec 1	at BKN	44%	109–111	L 103–116	✓correct	−11
Nov 29	vs TOR	27%	110–119	W 118–111	✗missed	+16
Nov 28	vs CHI	39%	116–120	W 123–116	✗missed	+11
Nov 26	vs NYK	34%	113–119	L 101–129	✓correct	−22
Nov 23	at ATL	17%	108–122	L 110–113	✓correct	+11
Nov 22	vs LAC	47%	112–113	L 116–131	✓correct	−14
Nov 19	at IND	53%	115–114	L 118–127	✗missed	−10
Nov 17	at TOR	17%	108–122	L 108–110	✓correct	+12
Nov 15	vs OKC	15%	111–126	L 96–109	✓correct	+2
Nov 14	at MIL	24%	113–123	L 134–147	✓correct	−3
Nov 12	vs MIL	22%	112–123	W 111–100	✗missed	+22
Nov 10	vs LAL	19%	111–124	L 111–121	✓correct	+3
Nov 7	at MIA	22%	111–122	L 108–126	✓correct	−7
Nov 4	at NOP	53%	116–115	L 112–116	✗missed	−5
Nov 2	vs UTA	29%	111–119	W 126–103	✗missed	+31
Nov 1	vs MIN	31%	115–122	L 105–122	✓correct	−10
Oct 30	vs ORL	53%	113–112	L 107–123	✗missed	−17
Oct 28	at MIA	22%	112–123	L 117–144	✓correct	−16
Oct 26	at WAS	39%	111–115	W 139–113	✗missed	+30
Oct 25	at PHI	44%	111–113	L 121–125	✓correct	−2
Oct 22	vs BKN	47%	112–113	W 136–117	✗missed	+20

2024-25

9.3 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 7.6 to 10.9; 1st smallest of 30

−1.8

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -4.0 to 0.7

12.9 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

76%

winner picked

82 games involving CHA

19 / 27.1

actual / expected wins

gap −8.1

0.170

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	CHA win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 13	at BOS	31%	110–117	L 86–93	✓correct	±0
Apr 11	at BOS	14%	103–120	L 94–130	✓correct	−19
Apr 9	at TOR	36%	111–116	L 96–126	✓correct	−25
Apr 8	vs MEM	29%	111–120	L 100–124	✓correct	−15
Apr 6	vs CHI	27%	114–124	L 117–131	✓correct	−4
Apr 4	vs SAC	34%	108–115	L 102–125	✓correct	−16
Apr 2	at IND	12%	106–124	L 105–119	✓correct	+4
Mar 31	vs UTA	59%	116–113	W 110–106	✓correct	+1
Mar 30	at NOP	56%	112–109	L 94–98	✗missed	−7
Mar 28	at TOR	36%	110–115	L 97–108	✓correct	−6
Mar 25	vs ORL	44%	111–114	L 104–111	✓correct	−4
Mar 23	at MIA	33%	107–113	L 105–122	✓correct	−11
Mar 21	at OKC	11%	109–128	L 106–141	✓correct	−16
Mar 20	vs NYK	44%	108–111	W 115–98	✗missed	+20
Mar 18	vs ATL	44%	115–118	L 102–134	✓correct	−29
Mar 16	at LAC	19%	105–118	L 88–123	✓correct	−22
Mar 14	at SAS	31%	115–122	W 145–134	✗missed	+18
Mar 12	at ATL	21%	113–125	L 110–123	✓correct	−1
Mar 10	at MIA	21%	104–116	W 105–102	✗missed	+15
Mar 8	vs BKN	41%	109–113	W 105–102	✗missed	+7
Mar 7	vs CLE	17%	108–124	L 117–118	✓correct	+15
Mar 5	vs MIN	41%	113–117	L 110–125	✓correct	−11
Mar 3	vs GSW	32%	110–118	L 101–119	✓correct	−10
Mar 1	vs WAS	49%	112–113	L 100–113	✓correct	−12
Feb 27	at DAL	23%	106–117	L 96–103	✓correct	+4
Feb 25	at GSW	19%	106–119	L 92–128	✓correct	−23
Feb 24	at SAC	27%	108–117	L 88–130	✓correct	−33
Feb 22	at POR	29%	105–113	L 88–141	✓correct	−45
Feb 20	at DEN	10%	104–124	L 115–129	✓correct	+6
Feb 19	at LAL	18%	103–117	W 100–97	✗missed	+17
Feb 12	at ORL	23%	102–113	L 86–102	✓correct	−5
Feb 10	at BKN	31%	100–107	L 89–97	✓correct	−1
Feb 9	at DET	15%	106–122	L 102–112	✓correct	+6
Feb 7	vs SAS	44%	114–117	W 117–116	✗missed	+4
Feb 5	vs MIL	36%	112–118	L 102–112	✓correct	−4
Feb 3	vs WAS	59%	113–110	L 114–124	✗missed	−13
Feb 1	vs DEN	27%	109–119	L 104–107	✓correct	+7
Jan 31	vs LAC	27%	105–115	L 104–112	✓correct	+2
Jan 29	vs BKN	62%	107–103	L 83–104	✗missed	−25
Jan 27	vs LAL	36%	106–112	L 107–112	✓correct	+1
Jan 25	vs NOP	46%	112–114	W 123–92	✗missed	+33
Jan 24	vs POR	49%	110–111	L 97–102	✓correct	−4
Jan 22	at MEM	19%	109–122	L 120–132	✓correct	+1
Jan 20	vs DAL	44%	111–114	W 110–105	✗missed	+8
Jan 17	at CHI	25%	108–118	W 125–123	✗missed	+12
Jan 15	at UTA	43%	107–109	W 117–112	✗missed	+7
Jan 12	at PHX	31%	106–113	L 113–120	✓correct	±0
Jan 7	vs PHX	49%	112–113	W 115–104	✗missed	+12
Jan 5	at CLE	11%	106–125	L 105–115	✓correct	+9
Jan 3	at DET	31%	112–119	L 94–98	✓correct	+3
Dec 30	vs CHI	27%	112–122	L 108–115	✓correct	+3
Dec 28	vs OKC	21%	102–115	L 94–106	✓correct	+1
Dec 26	at WAS	46%	115–116	L 110–113	✓correct	−2
Dec 23	vs HOU	27%	104–114	L 101–114	✓correct	−3
Dec 20	at PHI	23%	101–112	L 98–108	✓correct	+1
Dec 19	at WAS	51%	115–114	L 114–123	✗missed	−10
Dec 16	vs PHI	57%	107–105	L 108–121	✗missed	−15
Dec 13	at CHI	23%	112–123	L 95–109	✓correct	−3
Dec 8	at IND	23%	107–118	W 113–109	✗missed	+15
Dec 7	vs CLE	21%	104–117	L 102–116	✓correct	−1
Dec 5	at NYK	16%	105–120	L 101–125	✓correct	−9
Dec 3	vs PHI	27%	101–111	L 104–110	✓correct	+4
Nov 30	vs ATL	34%	111–118	L 104–107	✓correct	+4
Nov 29	vs NYK	27%	106–116	L 98–99	✓correct	+9
Nov 27	vs MIA	41%	107–111	L 94–98	✓correct	±0
Nov 25	vs ORL	32%	104–112	L 84–95	✓correct	−3
Nov 23	at MIL	23%	103–114	L 119–125	✓correct	+5
Nov 21	vs DET	46%	108–110	W 123–121	✗missed	+4
Nov 19	at BKN	36%	107–112	L 115–116	✓correct	+4
Nov 17	at CLE	16%	106–121	L 114–128	✓correct	+1
Nov 16	vs MIL	54%	111–110	W 115–114	✓correct	±0
Nov 12	at ORL	27%	105–114	L 89–114	✓correct	−16
Nov 10	at PHI	38%	106–110	L 105–107	✓correct	+2
Nov 8	vs IND	36%	111–117	W 103–83	✗missed	+26
Nov 6	vs DET	54%	110–109	W 108–107	✓correct	±0
Nov 4	at MIN	25%	106–116	L 93–114	✓correct	−11
Nov 2	vs BOS	32%	106–114	L 103–113	✓correct	−2
Nov 1	vs BOS	36%	109–115	L 109–124	✓correct	−9
Oct 30	vs TOR	69%	119–112	W 138–133	✓correct	−2
Oct 26	vs MIA	44%	109–112	L 106–114	✓correct	−5
Oct 25	at ATL	33%	110–116	L 120–125	✓correct	+1
Oct 23	at HOU	25%	105–115	W 110–105	✗missed	+15

2023-24

Across 82 graded games, CHA finished an average of 3.3 points worse than the forecast margin (90% interval -5.7 to -0.9).

10.6 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 8.9 to 12.4; 9th smallest of 30

−3.3

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -5.7 to -0.9

13.8 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.3

73%

winner picked

82 games involving CHA

21 / 30.3

actual / expected wins

gap −9.3

0.204

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	CHA win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 14	at CLE	27%	105–115	W 120–110	✗missed	+20
Apr 12	at BOS	32%	105–112	L 98–131	✓correct	−26
Apr 10	at ATL	27%	105–115	W 115–114	✗missed	+11
Apr 9	vs DAL	41%	110–117	L 104–130	✓correct	−19
Apr 7	vs OKC	53%	111–112	L 118–121	✓correct	−2
Apr 5	vs ORL	39%	107–115	W 124–115	✗missed	+17
Apr 3	vs POR	57%	112–111	L 86–89	✗missed	−4
Apr 1	vs BOS	39%	106–114	L 104–118	✓correct	−6
Mar 31	vs LAC	39%	107–115	L 118–130	✓correct	−4
Mar 29	vs GSW	43%	107–113	L 97–115	✓correct	−12
Mar 27	vs CLE	45%	105–110	W 118–111	✗missed	+12
Mar 25	at CLE	39%	104–107	L 92–115	✓correct	−20
Mar 23	at ATL	47%	107–106	L 91–132	✗missed	−42
Mar 19	at ORL	30%	99–107	L 92–112	✓correct	−12
Mar 16	at PHI	39%	105–108	L 98–109	✓correct	−8
Mar 15	vs PHX	45%	107–112	L 96–107	✓correct	−6
Mar 13	at MEM	43%	105–106	W 110–98	✗missed	+13
Mar 11	at DET	34%	106–112	L 97–114	✓correct	−11
Mar 9	vs BKN	57%	106–105	W 110–99	✓correct	+10
Mar 8	at WAS	41%	113–115	L 100–112	✓correct	−10
Mar 5	vs ORL	47%	107–111	L 89–101	✓correct	−8
Mar 3	at TOR	34%	109–115	L 106–111	✓correct	+1
Mar 1	at PHI	25%	103–114	L 114–121	✓correct	+4
Feb 29	vs MIL	39%	108–116	L 99–111	✓correct	−4
Feb 27	at MIL	27%	106–116	L 85–123	✓correct	−28
Feb 25	at POR	37%	109–113	W 93–80	✗missed	+17
Feb 23	at GSW	18%	109–125	L 84–97	✓correct	+3
Feb 22	at UTA	27%	114–124	W 115–107	✗missed	+18
Feb 14	vs ATL	41%	115–122	W 122–99	✗missed	+30
Feb 12	vs IND	37%	114–123	W 111–102	✗missed	+18
Feb 10	vs MEM	49%	111–114	W 115–106	✗missed	+12
Feb 9	at MIL	19%	109–124	L 84–120	✓correct	−21
Feb 7	vs TOR	51%	114–116	L 117–123	✓correct	−4
Feb 5	vs LAL	43%	116–122	L 118–124	✓correct	±0
Feb 4	vs IND	39%	114–122	L 99–115	✓correct	−8
Feb 2	at OKC	19%	102–117	L 106–126	✓correct	−5
Jan 31	vs CHI	45%	111–116	L 110–117	✓correct	−2
Jan 29	vs NYK	45%	107–112	L 92–113	✓correct	−16
Jan 27	vs UTA	39%	114–122	L 122–134	✓correct	−4
Jan 26	vs HOU	49%	113–116	L 104–138	✓correct	−31
Jan 24	at DET	37%	115–119	L 106–113	✓correct	−3
Jan 22	at MIN	18%	100–116	W 128–125	✗missed	+19
Jan 20	vs PHI	47%	107–111	L 89–97	✓correct	−4
Jan 19	vs SAS	59%	115–113	W 124–120	✓correct	+2
Jan 17	at NOP	18%	102–118	L 112–132	✓correct	−4
Jan 14	at MIA	22%	102–115	L 87–104	✓correct	−4
Jan 12	at SAS	34%	112–118	L 99–135	✓correct	−30
Jan 10	vs SAC	41%	110–117	L 98–123	✓correct	−18
Jan 8	vs CHI	43%	108–114	L 112–119	✓correct	−1
Jan 5	at CHI	32%	106–113	L 91–104	✓correct	−6
Jan 2	at SAC	19%	108–123	W 111–104	✗missed	+22
Jan 1	at DEN	19%	104–119	L 93–111	✓correct	−3
Dec 29	at PHX	24%	108–120	L 119–133	✓correct	−2
Dec 28	at LAL	25%	109–120	L 112–133	✓correct	−10
Dec 26	at LAC	22%	107–120	L 104–113	✓correct	+4
Dec 23	vs DEN	37%	110–119	L 95–102	✓correct	+2
Dec 20	at IND	30%	115–123	L 113–144	✓correct	−23
Dec 18	at TOR	25%	107–118	L 99–114	✓correct	−4
Dec 16	vs PHI	37%	111–120	L 82–135	✓correct	−44
Dec 15	vs NOP	39%	112–120	L 107–112	✓correct	+3
Dec 13	at MIA	27%	107–117	L 104–115	✓correct	−1
Dec 11	vs MIA	45%	111–116	L 114–116	✓correct	+3
Dec 8	vs TOR	43%	112–118	W 119–116	✗missed	+9
Dec 6	at CHI	32%	107–114	L 100–111	✓correct	−4
Dec 2	vs MIN	47%	111–115	L 117–123	✓correct	−2
Nov 30	at BKN	24%	106–118	W 129–128	✗missed	+13
Nov 28	at NYK	18%	103–119	L 91–115	✓correct	−8
Nov 26	at ORL	24%	105–117	L 117–130	✓correct	−1
Nov 22	vs WAS	57%	119–118	W 117–114	✓correct	+2
Nov 20	vs BOS	47%	113–117	W 121–118	✗missed	+7
Nov 18	vs NYK	41%	110–117	L 108–122	✓correct	−7
Nov 17	vs MIL	41%	114–121	L 99–130	✓correct	−24
Nov 14	vs MIA	39%	113–121	L 105–111	✓correct	+2
Nov 12	at NYK	22%	104–117	L 107–129	✓correct	−9
Nov 10	at WAS	39%	113–116	W 124–117	✗missed	+10
Nov 8	vs WAS	45%	111–116	L 116–132	✓correct	−11
Nov 5	at DAL	28%	111–120	L 118–124	✓correct	+3
Nov 4	at IND	43%	114–115	W 125–124	✗missed	+2
Nov 1	at HOU	47%	115–114	L 119–128	✗missed	−10
Oct 30	vs BKN	47%	109–113	L 121–133	✓correct	−8
Oct 27	vs DET	63%	115–111	L 99–111	✗missed	−16
Oct 25	vs ATL	47%	114–118	W 116–110	✗missed	+10

2022-23

10.8 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.4 to 12.3; 21st smallest of 30

−0.7

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -3.0 to 1.9

13.8 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 10.3

62%

winner picked

82 games involving CHA

27 / 30.0

actual / expected wins

gap −3.0

0.238

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	CHA win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 9	at CLE	28%	110–119	W 106–95	✗missed	+20
Apr 7	vs HOU	47%	113–114	L 109–112	✓correct	−2
Apr 4	vs TOR	17%	105–120	L 100–120	✓correct	−5
Apr 2	vs TOR	20%	107–120	L 108–128	✓correct	−7
Mar 31	vs CHI	30%	107–115	L 91–121	✓correct	−22
Mar 28	at OKC	35%	107–113	W 137–134	✗missed	+9
Mar 26	vs DAL	26%	108–118	W 110–104	✗missed	+16
Mar 24	at DAL	22%	108–120	W 117–109	✗missed	+20
Mar 23	at NOP	32%	108–115	L 96–115	✓correct	−12
Mar 20	vs IND	53%	116–115	W 115–109	✓correct	+5
Mar 17	vs PHI	35%	108–114	L 82–121	✓correct	−33
Mar 14	vs CLE	35%	108–114	L 104–120	✓correct	−10
Mar 12	vs CLE	17%	107–122	L 108–114	✓correct	+9
Mar 11	vs UTA	45%	114–116	L 111–119	✓correct	−6
Mar 9	at DET	65%	117–111	W 113–103	✓correct	+4
Mar 7	at NYK	20%	105–118	W 112–105	✗missed	+20
Mar 5	at BKN	35%	110–116	L 86–102	✓correct	−10
Mar 3	vs ORL	24%	109–120	L 106–117	✓correct	±0
Mar 1	vs PHX	20%	110–123	L 91–105	✓correct	−1
Feb 27	vs DET	70%	118–110	W 117–106	✓correct	+3
Feb 25	vs MIA	35%	115–121	W 108–103	✗missed	+11
Feb 24	at MIN	30%	112–120	W 121–113	✗missed	+16
Feb 15	vs SAS	60%	117–113	W 120–110	✓correct	+6
Feb 13	vs ATL	28%	115–124	W 144–138	✗missed	+15
Feb 11	vs DEN	19%	111–125	L 105–119	✓correct	±0
Feb 10	at BOS	32%	106–113	L 116–127	✓correct	−4
Feb 8	at WAS	22%	109–121	L 104–118	✓correct	−2
Feb 5	vs ORL	26%	114–124	L 113–119	✓correct	+4
Feb 3	at DET	55%	119–117	L 112–118	✗missed	−8
Feb 2	at CHI	30%	111–119	L 98–114	✓correct	−8
Jan 31	at MIL	20%	111–124	L 115–124	✓correct	+4
Jan 29	vs MIA	28%	111–120	W 122–117	✗missed	+14
Jan 26	vs CHI	35%	116–122	W 111–96	✗missed	+21
Jan 24	at PHX	32%	110–117	L 97–128	✓correct	−24
Jan 23	at UTA	22%	112–124	L 102–120	✓correct	−6
Jan 21	at ATL	19%	110–124	W 122–118	✗missed	+18
Jan 18	at HOU	53%	119–118	W 122–117	✓correct	+4
Jan 16	vs BOS	42%	114–117	L 118–130	✓correct	−9
Jan 14	vs BOS	40%	112–116	L 106–122	✓correct	−12
Jan 12	at TOR	24%	110–121	L 114–124	✓correct	+1
Jan 10	at TOR	32%	109–116	L 120–132	✓correct	−5
Jan 8	at IND	24%	109–120	L 111–116	✓correct	+6
Jan 6	at MIL	26%	107–117	W 138–109	✗missed	+39
Jan 4	vs MEM	24%	111–122	L 107–131	✓correct	−13
Jan 2	vs LAL	37%	115–120	L 115–121	✓correct	−1
Dec 31	vs BKN	30%	115–123	L 106–123	✓correct	−9
Dec 29	vs OKC	28%	112–121	W 121–113	✗missed	+17
Dec 27	at GSW	35%	112–118	L 105–110	✓correct	+1
Dec 26	at POR	26%	113–123	L 113–124	✓correct	−1
Dec 23	at LAL	40%	112–116	W 134–130	✗missed	+8
Dec 21	at LAC	20%	105–118	L 105–126	✓correct	−8
Dec 19	at SAC	17%	106–121	W 125–119	✗missed	+21
Dec 18	at DEN	20%	108–121	L 115–119	✓correct	+9
Dec 16	vs ATL	45%	116–118	L 106–125	✓correct	−17
Dec 14	vs DET	55%	114–112	L 134–141	✗missed	−9
Dec 11	at PHI	32%	107–114	L 113–131	✓correct	−11
Dec 9	vs NYK	30%	109–117	L 102–121	✓correct	−11
Dec 7	at BKN	32%	106–113	L 116–122	✓correct	+1
Dec 5	vs LAC	37%	107–112	L 117–119	✓correct	+3
Dec 3	vs MIL	37%	109–114	L 96–105	✓correct	−4
Dec 2	vs WAS	30%	109–117	W 117–116	✗missed	+9
Nov 28	at BOS	32%	108–115	L 105–140	✓correct	−28
Nov 25	vs MIN	30%	108–116	W 110–108	✗missed	+10
Nov 23	vs PHI	47%	113–114	W 107–101	✗missed	+7
Nov 20	at WAS	35%	104–110	L 102–106	✓correct	+2
Nov 18	at CLE	26%	103–113	L 122–132	✓correct	±0
Nov 16	vs IND	53%	111–110	L 113–125	✗missed	−13
Nov 14	at ORL	45%	105–107	W 112–105	✗missed	+9
Nov 12	at MIA	45%	107–109	L 115–132	✓correct	−15
Nov 10	at MIA	45%	107–109	L 112–117	✓correct	−3
Nov 9	vs POR	58%	111–108	L 95–105	✗missed	−13
Nov 7	vs WAS	68%	113–106	L 100–108	✗missed	−15
Nov 5	vs BKN	58%	113–110	L 94–98	✗missed	−7
Nov 4	at MEM	37%	110–115	L 99–130	✓correct	−26
Nov 2	at CHI	65%	114–108	L 88–106	✗missed	−24
Oct 31	vs SAC	76%	119–108	L 108–115	✗missed	−18
Oct 29	vs GSW	55%	115–113	W 120–113	✓correct	+5
Oct 28	at ORL	63%	117–112	L 93–113	✗missed	−25
Oct 26	at NYK	42%	112–115	L 131–134	✓correct	±0
Oct 23	at ATL	37%	110–115	W 126–109	✗missed	+22
Oct 21	vs NOP	55%	115–113	L 112–124	✗missed	−14
Oct 19	at SAS	45%	113–115	W 129–102	✗missed	+29

2022-23 to 2026-27

11.2 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.3 to 12.1; 19th smallest of 30

−0.7

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.1 to 0.6

14.8 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

69%

winner picked

338 games involving CHA

114 / 134.3

actual / expected wins

gap −20.4

0.209

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 338 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	CHA win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 6	vs BOS	30%	104–111	L 80–119	✓correct	−32
Nov 4	at BKN	61%	108–103	L 104–114	✗missed	−15
Nov 2	vs DET	36%	106–111	L 91–124	✓correct	−28
Oct 31	vs PHI	62%	111–107	L 104–109	✗missed	−9
Oct 30	at WAS	70%	120–113	L 79–95	✗missed	−23
Oct 28	at DET	44%	109–111	L 89–97	✓correct	−6
Oct 26	vs WAS	78%	123–112	W 110–103	✓correct	−4
Oct 24	vs MIA	62%	116–112	W 115–110	✓correct	+1
Oct 23	vs ATL	67%	116–110	L 81–128	✗missed	−53
Oct 21	at BKN	74%	118–109	W 110–103	✓correct	−2
Apr 12	at NYK	61%	113–109	W 110–96	✓correct	+10
Apr 10	vs DET	44%	109–111	L 100–118	✓correct	−16
Apr 7	at BOS	64%	112–107	L 102–113	✗missed	−16
Apr 5	at MIN	61%	112–108	W 122–108	✓correct	+10
Apr 3	vs IND	85%	125–110	W 129–108	✓correct	+6
Apr 2	vs PHX	61%	114–110	W 127–107	✓correct	+16
Mar 31	at BKN	74%	117–108	W 117–86	✓correct	+22
Mar 29	vs BOS	56%	110–108	L 99–114	✗missed	−17
Mar 28	vs PHI	76%	122–112	L 114–118	✗missed	−14
Mar 26	vs NYK	39%	110–114	W 114–103	✗missed	+15
Mar 24	vs SAC	87%	123–106	W 134–90	✓correct	+27
Mar 21	vs MEM	83%	122–108	W 124–101	✓correct	+9
Mar 19	vs ORL	59%	115–112	W 130–111	✓correct	+16
Mar 17	vs MIA	69%	118–111	W 136–106	✓correct	+23
Mar 14	at SAS	47%	114–115	L 102–115	✓correct	−12
Mar 11	at SAC	81%	119–106	W 117–109	✓correct	−5
Mar 10	at POR	61%	114–110	W 103–101	✓correct	−2
Mar 8	at PHX	71%	113–105	L 99–111	✗missed	−20
Mar 6	vs MIA	71%	118–110	L 120–128	✗missed	−16
Mar 4	at BOS	56%	111–109	W 118–89	✓correct	+27
Mar 3	vs DAL	89%	126–108	W 117–90	✓correct	+9
Feb 28	vs POR	74%	120–111	W 109–93	✓correct	+7
Feb 26	at IND	81%	120–107	W 133–109	✓correct	+11
Feb 24	at CHI	76%	117–107	W 131–99	✓correct	+22
Feb 22	at WAS	74%	117–108	W 129–112	✓correct	+8
Feb 20	vs CLE	42%	111–114	L 113–118	✓correct	−2
Feb 19	vs HOU	56%	108–106	L 101–105	✗missed	−6
Feb 11	vs ATL	67%	118–112	W 110–107	✓correct	−3
Feb 9	vs DET	47%	113–114	L 104–110	✓correct	−5
Feb 7	at ATL	53%	112–111	W 126–119	✓correct	+6
Feb 5	at HOU	53%	111–110	W 109–99	✓correct	+9
Feb 2	vs NOP	76%	118–108	W 102–95	✓correct	−3
Jan 31	vs SAS	53%	110–109	W 111–106	✓correct	+4
Jan 29	at DAL	56%	115–113	W 123–121	✓correct	±0
Jan 28	at MEM	61%	115–111	W 112–97	✓correct	+11
Jan 26	vs PHI	61%	112–108	W 130–93	✓correct	+33
Jan 24	vs WAS	86%	120–104	W 119–115	✓correct	−12
Jan 22	at ORL	58%	113–110	W 124–97	✓correct	+24
Jan 21	vs CLE	64%	118–113	L 87–94	✗missed	−12
Jan 18	at DEN	41%	114–117	W 110–87	✗missed	+26
Jan 17	at GSW	47%	115–116	L 116–136	✓correct	−19
Jan 15	at LAL	53%	115–114	W 135–117	✓correct	+17
Jan 12	at LAC	53%	113–112	L 109–117	✗missed	−9
Jan 10	at UTA	64%	119–114	W 150–95	✓correct	+50
Jan 8	vs IND	71%	123–115	L 112–114	✗missed	−10
Jan 7	vs TOR	47%	114–115	L 96–97	✓correct	±0
Jan 5	at OKC	10%	109–128	W 124–97	✗missed	+46
Jan 3	at CHI	39%	118–122	W 112–99	✗missed	+17
Jan 2	at MIL	44%	113–115	L 121–122	✓correct	+1
Dec 31	vs GSW	39%	114–118	L 125–132	✓correct	−3
Dec 29	vs MIL	56%	114–112	L 113–123	✗missed	−12
Dec 26	at ORL	36%	114–119	W 120–105	✗missed	+20
Dec 23	vs WAS	64%	117–112	W 126–109	✓correct	+12
Dec 22	at CLE	34%	115–121	L 132–139	✓correct	−1
Dec 20	at DET	22%	111–122	L 86–112	✓correct	−15
Dec 18	vs ATL	42%	114–117	W 133–126	✗missed	+10
Dec 14	at CLE	20%	109–121	W 119–111	✗missed	+20
Dec 12	vs CHI	36%	112–117	L 126–129	✓correct	+2
Dec 7	vs DEN	24%	109–119	L 106–115	✓correct	+1
Dec 5	at TOR	24%	106–116	W 111–86	✗missed	+35
Dec 3	at NYK	20%	107–119	L 104–119	✓correct	−3
Dec 1	at BKN	44%	109–111	L 103–116	✓correct	−11
Nov 29	vs TOR	27%	110–119	W 118–111	✗missed	+16
Nov 28	vs CHI	39%	116–120	W 123–116	✗missed	+11
Nov 26	vs NYK	34%	113–119	L 101–129	✓correct	−22
Nov 23	at ATL	17%	108–122	L 110–113	✓correct	+11
Nov 22	vs LAC	47%	112–113	L 116–131	✓correct	−14
Nov 19	at IND	53%	115–114	L 118–127	✗missed	−10
Nov 17	at TOR	17%	108–122	L 108–110	✓correct	+12
Nov 15	vs OKC	15%	111–126	L 96–109	✓correct	+2
Nov 14	at MIL	24%	113–123	L 134–147	✓correct	−3
Nov 12	vs MIL	22%	112–123	W 111–100	✗missed	+22
Nov 10	vs LAL	19%	111–124	L 111–121	✓correct	+3
Nov 7	at MIA	22%	111–122	L 108–126	✓correct	−7
Nov 4	at NOP	53%	116–115	L 112–116	✗missed	−5
Nov 2	vs UTA	29%	111–119	W 126–103	✗missed	+31
Nov 1	vs MIN	31%	115–122	L 105–122	✓correct	−10
Oct 30	vs ORL	53%	113–112	L 107–123	✗missed	−17
Oct 28	at MIA	22%	112–123	L 117–144	✓correct	−16
Oct 26	at WAS	39%	111–115	W 139–113	✗missed	+30
Oct 25	at PHI	44%	111–113	L 121–125	✓correct	−2
Oct 22	vs BKN	47%	112–113	W 136–117	✗missed	+20
Apr 13	at BOS	31%	110–117	L 86–93	✓correct	±0
Apr 11	at BOS	14%	103–120	L 94–130	✓correct	−19
Apr 9	at TOR	36%	111–116	L 96–126	✓correct	−25
Apr 8	vs MEM	29%	111–120	L 100–124	✓correct	−15
Apr 6	vs CHI	27%	114–124	L 117–131	✓correct	−4
Apr 4	vs SAC	34%	108–115	L 102–125	✓correct	−16
Apr 2	at IND	12%	106–124	L 105–119	✓correct	+4
Mar 31	vs UTA	59%	116–113	W 110–106	✓correct	+1
Mar 30	at NOP	56%	112–109	L 94–98	✗missed	−7
Mar 28	at TOR	36%	110–115	L 97–108	✓correct	−6
Mar 25	vs ORL	44%	111–114	L 104–111	✓correct	−4
Mar 23	at MIA	33%	107–113	L 105–122	✓correct	−11
Mar 21	at OKC	11%	109–128	L 106–141	✓correct	−16
Mar 20	vs NYK	44%	108–111	W 115–98	✗missed	+20
Mar 18	vs ATL	44%	115–118	L 102–134	✓correct	−29
Mar 16	at LAC	19%	105–118	L 88–123	✓correct	−22
Mar 14	at SAS	31%	115–122	W 145–134	✗missed	+18
Mar 12	at ATL	21%	113–125	L 110–123	✓correct	−1
Mar 10	at MIA	21%	104–116	W 105–102	✗missed	+15
Mar 8	vs BKN	41%	109–113	W 105–102	✗missed	+7
Mar 7	vs CLE	17%	108–124	L 117–118	✓correct	+15
Mar 5	vs MIN	41%	113–117	L 110–125	✓correct	−11
Mar 3	vs GSW	32%	110–118	L 101–119	✓correct	−10
Mar 1	vs WAS	49%	112–113	L 100–113	✓correct	−12
Feb 27	at DAL	23%	106–117	L 96–103	✓correct	+4
Feb 25	at GSW	19%	106–119	L 92–128	✓correct	−23
Feb 24	at SAC	27%	108–117	L 88–130	✓correct	−33
Feb 22	at POR	29%	105–113	L 88–141	✓correct	−45
Feb 20	at DEN	10%	104–124	L 115–129	✓correct	+6
Feb 19	at LAL	18%	103–117	W 100–97	✗missed	+17
Feb 12	at ORL	23%	102–113	L 86–102	✓correct	−5
Feb 10	at BKN	31%	100–107	L 89–97	✓correct	−1
Feb 9	at DET	15%	106–122	L 102–112	✓correct	+6
Feb 7	vs SAS	44%	114–117	W 117–116	✗missed	+4
Feb 5	vs MIL	36%	112–118	L 102–112	✓correct	−4
Feb 3	vs WAS	59%	113–110	L 114–124	✗missed	−13
Feb 1	vs DEN	27%	109–119	L 104–107	✓correct	+7
Jan 31	vs LAC	27%	105–115	L 104–112	✓correct	+2
Jan 29	vs BKN	62%	107–103	L 83–104	✗missed	−25
Jan 27	vs LAL	36%	106–112	L 107–112	✓correct	+1
Jan 25	vs NOP	46%	112–114	W 123–92	✗missed	+33
Jan 24	vs POR	49%	110–111	L 97–102	✓correct	−4
Jan 22	at MEM	19%	109–122	L 120–132	✓correct	+1
Jan 20	vs DAL	44%	111–114	W 110–105	✗missed	+8
Jan 17	at CHI	25%	108–118	W 125–123	✗missed	+12
Jan 15	at UTA	43%	107–109	W 117–112	✗missed	+7
Jan 12	at PHX	31%	106–113	L 113–120	✓correct	±0
Jan 7	vs PHX	49%	112–113	W 115–104	✗missed	+12
Jan 5	at CLE	11%	106–125	L 105–115	✓correct	+9
Jan 3	at DET	31%	112–119	L 94–98	✓correct	+3
Dec 30	vs CHI	27%	112–122	L 108–115	✓correct	+3
Dec 28	vs OKC	21%	102–115	L 94–106	✓correct	+1
Dec 26	at WAS	46%	115–116	L 110–113	✓correct	−2
Dec 23	vs HOU	27%	104–114	L 101–114	✓correct	−3
Dec 20	at PHI	23%	101–112	L 98–108	✓correct	+1
Dec 19	at WAS	51%	115–114	L 114–123	✗missed	−10
Dec 16	vs PHI	57%	107–105	L 108–121	✗missed	−15
Dec 13	at CHI	23%	112–123	L 95–109	✓correct	−3
Dec 8	at IND	23%	107–118	W 113–109	✗missed	+15
Dec 7	vs CLE	21%	104–117	L 102–116	✓correct	−1
Dec 5	at NYK	16%	105–120	L 101–125	✓correct	−9
Dec 3	vs PHI	27%	101–111	L 104–110	✓correct	+4
Nov 30	vs ATL	34%	111–118	L 104–107	✓correct	+4
Nov 29	vs NYK	27%	106–116	L 98–99	✓correct	+9
Nov 27	vs MIA	41%	107–111	L 94–98	✓correct	±0
Nov 25	vs ORL	32%	104–112	L 84–95	✓correct	−3
Nov 23	at MIL	23%	103–114	L 119–125	✓correct	+5
Nov 21	vs DET	46%	108–110	W 123–121	✗missed	+4
Nov 19	at BKN	36%	107–112	L 115–116	✓correct	+4
Nov 17	at CLE	16%	106–121	L 114–128	✓correct	+1
Nov 16	vs MIL	54%	111–110	W 115–114	✓correct	±0
Nov 12	at ORL	27%	105–114	L 89–114	✓correct	−16
Nov 10	at PHI	38%	106–110	L 105–107	✓correct	+2
Nov 8	vs IND	36%	111–117	W 103–83	✗missed	+26
Nov 6	vs DET	54%	110–109	W 108–107	✓correct	±0
Nov 4	at MIN	25%	106–116	L 93–114	✓correct	−11
Nov 2	vs BOS	32%	106–114	L 103–113	✓correct	−2
Nov 1	vs BOS	36%	109–115	L 109–124	✓correct	−9
Oct 30	vs TOR	69%	119–112	W 138–133	✓correct	−2
Oct 26	vs MIA	44%	109–112	L 106–114	✓correct	−5
Oct 25	at ATL	33%	110–116	L 120–125	✓correct	+1
Oct 23	at HOU	25%	105–115	W 110–105	✗missed	+15
Apr 14	at CLE	27%	105–115	W 120–110	✗missed	+20
Apr 12	at BOS	32%	105–112	L 98–131	✓correct	−26
Apr 10	at ATL	27%	105–115	W 115–114	✗missed	+11
Apr 9	vs DAL	41%	110–117	L 104–130	✓correct	−19
Apr 7	vs OKC	53%	111–112	L 118–121	✓correct	−2
Apr 5	vs ORL	39%	107–115	W 124–115	✗missed	+17
Apr 3	vs POR	57%	112–111	L 86–89	✗missed	−4
Apr 1	vs BOS	39%	106–114	L 104–118	✓correct	−6
Mar 31	vs LAC	39%	107–115	L 118–130	✓correct	−4
Mar 29	vs GSW	43%	107–113	L 97–115	✓correct	−12
Mar 27	vs CLE	45%	105–110	W 118–111	✗missed	+12
Mar 25	at CLE	39%	104–107	L 92–115	✓correct	−20
Mar 23	at ATL	47%	107–106	L 91–132	✗missed	−42
Mar 19	at ORL	30%	99–107	L 92–112	✓correct	−12
Mar 16	at PHI	39%	105–108	L 98–109	✓correct	−8
Mar 15	vs PHX	45%	107–112	L 96–107	✓correct	−6
Mar 13	at MEM	43%	105–106	W 110–98	✗missed	+13
Mar 11	at DET	34%	106–112	L 97–114	✓correct	−11
Mar 9	vs BKN	57%	106–105	W 110–99	✓correct	+10
Mar 8	at WAS	41%	113–115	L 100–112	✓correct	−10
Mar 5	vs ORL	47%	107–111	L 89–101	✓correct	−8
Mar 3	at TOR	34%	109–115	L 106–111	✓correct	+1
Mar 1	at PHI	25%	103–114	L 114–121	✓correct	+4
Feb 29	vs MIL	39%	108–116	L 99–111	✓correct	−4
Feb 27	at MIL	27%	106–116	L 85–123	✓correct	−28
Feb 25	at POR	37%	109–113	W 93–80	✗missed	+17
Feb 23	at GSW	18%	109–125	L 84–97	✓correct	+3
Feb 22	at UTA	27%	114–124	W 115–107	✗missed	+18
Feb 14	vs ATL	41%	115–122	W 122–99	✗missed	+30
Feb 12	vs IND	37%	114–123	W 111–102	✗missed	+18
Feb 10	vs MEM	49%	111–114	W 115–106	✗missed	+12
Feb 9	at MIL	19%	109–124	L 84–120	✓correct	−21
Feb 7	vs TOR	51%	114–116	L 117–123	✓correct	−4
Feb 5	vs LAL	43%	116–122	L 118–124	✓correct	±0
Feb 4	vs IND	39%	114–122	L 99–115	✓correct	−8
Feb 2	at OKC	19%	102–117	L 106–126	✓correct	−5
Jan 31	vs CHI	45%	111–116	L 110–117	✓correct	−2
Jan 29	vs NYK	45%	107–112	L 92–113	✓correct	−16
Jan 27	vs UTA	39%	114–122	L 122–134	✓correct	−4
Jan 26	vs HOU	49%	113–116	L 104–138	✓correct	−31
Jan 24	at DET	37%	115–119	L 106–113	✓correct	−3
Jan 22	at MIN	18%	100–116	W 128–125	✗missed	+19
Jan 20	vs PHI	47%	107–111	L 89–97	✓correct	−4
Jan 19	vs SAS	59%	115–113	W 124–120	✓correct	+2
Jan 17	at NOP	18%	102–118	L 112–132	✓correct	−4
Jan 14	at MIA	22%	102–115	L 87–104	✓correct	−4
Jan 12	at SAS	34%	112–118	L 99–135	✓correct	−30
Jan 10	vs SAC	41%	110–117	L 98–123	✓correct	−18
Jan 8	vs CHI	43%	108–114	L 112–119	✓correct	−1
Jan 5	at CHI	32%	106–113	L 91–104	✓correct	−6
Jan 2	at SAC	19%	108–123	W 111–104	✗missed	+22
Jan 1	at DEN	19%	104–119	L 93–111	✓correct	−3
Dec 29	at PHX	24%	108–120	L 119–133	✓correct	−2
Dec 28	at LAL	25%	109–120	L 112–133	✓correct	−10
Dec 26	at LAC	22%	107–120	L 104–113	✓correct	+4
Dec 23	vs DEN	37%	110–119	L 95–102	✓correct	+2
Dec 20	at IND	30%	115–123	L 113–144	✓correct	−23
Dec 18	at TOR	25%	107–118	L 99–114	✓correct	−4
Dec 16	vs PHI	37%	111–120	L 82–135	✓correct	−44
Dec 15	vs NOP	39%	112–120	L 107–112	✓correct	+3
Dec 13	at MIA	27%	107–117	L 104–115	✓correct	−1
Dec 11	vs MIA	45%	111–116	L 114–116	✓correct	+3
Dec 8	vs TOR	43%	112–118	W 119–116	✗missed	+9
Dec 6	at CHI	32%	107–114	L 100–111	✓correct	−4
Dec 2	vs MIN	47%	111–115	L 117–123	✓correct	−2
Nov 30	at BKN	24%	106–118	W 129–128	✗missed	+13
Nov 28	at NYK	18%	103–119	L 91–115	✓correct	−8
Nov 26	at ORL	24%	105–117	L 117–130	✓correct	−1
Nov 22	vs WAS	57%	119–118	W 117–114	✓correct	+2
Nov 20	vs BOS	47%	113–117	W 121–118	✗missed	+7
Nov 18	vs NYK	41%	110–117	L 108–122	✓correct	−7
Nov 17	vs MIL	41%	114–121	L 99–130	✓correct	−24
Nov 14	vs MIA	39%	113–121	L 105–111	✓correct	+2
Nov 12	at NYK	22%	104–117	L 107–129	✓correct	−9
Nov 10	at WAS	39%	113–116	W 124–117	✗missed	+10
Nov 8	vs WAS	45%	111–116	L 116–132	✓correct	−11
Nov 5	at DAL	28%	111–120	L 118–124	✓correct	+3
Nov 4	at IND	43%	114–115	W 125–124	✗missed	+2
Nov 1	at HOU	47%	115–114	L 119–128	✗missed	−10
Oct 30	vs BKN	47%	109–113	L 121–133	✓correct	−8
Oct 27	vs DET	63%	115–111	L 99–111	✗missed	−16
Oct 25	vs ATL	47%	114–118	W 116–110	✗missed	+10
Apr 9	at CLE	28%	110–119	W 106–95	✗missed	+20
Apr 7	vs HOU	47%	113–114	L 109–112	✓correct	−2
Apr 4	vs TOR	17%	105–120	L 100–120	✓correct	−5
Apr 2	vs TOR	20%	107–120	L 108–128	✓correct	−7
Mar 31	vs CHI	30%	107–115	L 91–121	✓correct	−22
Mar 28	at OKC	35%	107–113	W 137–134	✗missed	+9
Mar 26	vs DAL	26%	108–118	W 110–104	✗missed	+16
Mar 24	at DAL	22%	108–120	W 117–109	✗missed	+20
Mar 23	at NOP	32%	108–115	L 96–115	✓correct	−12
Mar 20	vs IND	53%	116–115	W 115–109	✓correct	+5
Mar 17	vs PHI	35%	108–114	L 82–121	✓correct	−33
Mar 14	vs CLE	35%	108–114	L 104–120	✓correct	−10
Mar 12	vs CLE	17%	107–122	L 108–114	✓correct	+9
Mar 11	vs UTA	45%	114–116	L 111–119	✓correct	−6
Mar 9	at DET	65%	117–111	W 113–103	✓correct	+4
Mar 7	at NYK	20%	105–118	W 112–105	✗missed	+20
Mar 5	at BKN	35%	110–116	L 86–102	✓correct	−10
Mar 3	vs ORL	24%	109–120	L 106–117	✓correct	±0
Mar 1	vs PHX	20%	110–123	L 91–105	✓correct	−1
Feb 27	vs DET	70%	118–110	W 117–106	✓correct	+3
Feb 25	vs MIA	35%	115–121	W 108–103	✗missed	+11
Feb 24	at MIN	30%	112–120	W 121–113	✗missed	+16
Feb 15	vs SAS	60%	117–113	W 120–110	✓correct	+6
Feb 13	vs ATL	28%	115–124	W 144–138	✗missed	+15
Feb 11	vs DEN	19%	111–125	L 105–119	✓correct	±0
Feb 10	at BOS	32%	106–113	L 116–127	✓correct	−4
Feb 8	at WAS	22%	109–121	L 104–118	✓correct	−2
Feb 5	vs ORL	26%	114–124	L 113–119	✓correct	+4
Feb 3	at DET	55%	119–117	L 112–118	✗missed	−8
Feb 2	at CHI	30%	111–119	L 98–114	✓correct	−8
Jan 31	at MIL	20%	111–124	L 115–124	✓correct	+4
Jan 29	vs MIA	28%	111–120	W 122–117	✗missed	+14
Jan 26	vs CHI	35%	116–122	W 111–96	✗missed	+21
Jan 24	at PHX	32%	110–117	L 97–128	✓correct	−24
Jan 23	at UTA	22%	112–124	L 102–120	✓correct	−6
Jan 21	at ATL	19%	110–124	W 122–118	✗missed	+18
Jan 18	at HOU	53%	119–118	W 122–117	✓correct	+4
Jan 16	vs BOS	42%	114–117	L 118–130	✓correct	−9
Jan 14	vs BOS	40%	112–116	L 106–122	✓correct	−12
Jan 12	at TOR	24%	110–121	L 114–124	✓correct	+1
Jan 10	at TOR	32%	109–116	L 120–132	✓correct	−5
Jan 8	at IND	24%	109–120	L 111–116	✓correct	+6
Jan 6	at MIL	26%	107–117	W 138–109	✗missed	+39
Jan 4	vs MEM	24%	111–122	L 107–131	✓correct	−13
Jan 2	vs LAL	37%	115–120	L 115–121	✓correct	−1
Dec 31	vs BKN	30%	115–123	L 106–123	✓correct	−9
Dec 29	vs OKC	28%	112–121	W 121–113	✗missed	+17
Dec 27	at GSW	35%	112–118	L 105–110	✓correct	+1
Dec 26	at POR	26%	113–123	L 113–124	✓correct	−1
Dec 23	at LAL	40%	112–116	W 134–130	✗missed	+8
Dec 21	at LAC	20%	105–118	L 105–126	✓correct	−8
Dec 19	at SAC	17%	106–121	W 125–119	✗missed	+21
Dec 18	at DEN	20%	108–121	L 115–119	✓correct	+9
Dec 16	vs ATL	45%	116–118	L 106–125	✓correct	−17
Dec 14	vs DET	55%	114–112	L 134–141	✗missed	−9
Dec 11	at PHI	32%	107–114	L 113–131	✓correct	−11
Dec 9	vs NYK	30%	109–117	L 102–121	✓correct	−11
Dec 7	at BKN	32%	106–113	L 116–122	✓correct	+1
Dec 5	vs LAC	37%	107–112	L 117–119	✓correct	+3
Dec 3	vs MIL	37%	109–114	L 96–105	✓correct	−4
Dec 2	vs WAS	30%	109–117	W 117–116	✗missed	+9
Nov 28	at BOS	32%	108–115	L 105–140	✓correct	−28
Nov 25	vs MIN	30%	108–116	W 110–108	✗missed	+10
Nov 23	vs PHI	47%	113–114	W 107–101	✗missed	+7
Nov 20	at WAS	35%	104–110	L 102–106	✓correct	+2
Nov 18	at CLE	26%	103–113	L 122–132	✓correct	±0
Nov 16	vs IND	53%	111–110	L 113–125	✗missed	−13
Nov 14	at ORL	45%	105–107	W 112–105	✗missed	+9
Nov 12	at MIA	45%	107–109	L 115–132	✓correct	−15
Nov 10	at MIA	45%	107–109	L 112–117	✓correct	−3
Nov 9	vs POR	58%	111–108	L 95–105	✗missed	−13
Nov 7	vs WAS	68%	113–106	L 100–108	✗missed	−15
Nov 5	vs BKN	58%	113–110	L 94–98	✗missed	−7
Nov 4	at MEM	37%	110–115	L 99–130	✓correct	−26
Nov 2	at CHI	65%	114–108	L 88–106	✗missed	−24
Oct 31	vs SAC	76%	119–108	L 108–115	✗missed	−18
Oct 29	vs GSW	55%	115–113	W 120–113	✓correct	+5
Oct 28	at ORL	63%	117–112	L 93–113	✗missed	−25
Oct 26	at NYK	42%	112–115	L 131–134	✓correct	±0
Oct 23	at ATL	37%	110–115	W 126–109	✗missed	+22
Oct 21	vs NOP	55%	115–113	L 112–124	✗missed	−14
Oct 19	at SAS	45%	113–115	W 129–102	✗missed	+29

Surprise games

All CHA surprises

Across every graded season. The percentage is the pregame chance the forecast gave the team that won.

Most unexpected CHA wins

10%CHA beat OKC124–97Jan 5, 2025-26 · forecast OKC128–109 · missed margin by 46
17%CHA beat SAC125–119Dec 19, 2022-23 · forecast SAC121–106 · missed margin by 21
18%CHA beat LAL100–97Feb 19, 2024-25 · forecast LAL117–103 · missed margin by 17
18%CHA beat MIN128–125Jan 22, 2023-24 · forecast MIN116–100 · missed margin by 19
19%CHA beat ATL122–118Jan 21, 2022-23 · forecast ATL124–110 · missed margin by 18

Most unexpected CHA losses

24%SAC beat CHA115–108Oct 31, 2022-23 · forecast CHA119–108 · missed margin by 18
24%PHI beat CHA118–114Mar 28, 2025-26 · forecast CHA122–112 · missed margin by 14
29%MIA beat CHA128–120Mar 6, 2025-26 · forecast CHA118–110 · missed margin by 16
29%IND beat CHA114–112Jan 8, 2025-26 · forecast CHA123–115 · missed margin by 10
29%PHX beat CHA111–99Mar 8, 2025-26 · forecast CHA113–105 · missed margin by 20

Largest margin misses

33%ATL beat CHA128–81Oct 23, 2026-27 · forecast CHA116–110 · missed margin by 53
64%CHA beat UTA150–95Jan 10, 2025-26 · forecast CHA119–114 · missed margin by 50
10%CHA beat OKC124–97Jan 5, 2025-26 · forecast OKC128–109 · missed margin by 46
71%POR beat CHA141–88Feb 22, 2024-25 · forecast POR113–105 · missed margin by 45
63%PHI beat CHA135–82Dec 16, 2023-24 · forecast PHI120–111 · missed margin by 44

Definitions

Expected wins: The sum of the team's pregame win probabilities over the games in the sample (home: the stored home win probability; road: one minus it).
Wins vs expectation: Actual wins minus expected wins. It describes results relative to the forecasts, not why they differed.
Margin error: The team's actual margin minus its forecast margin, in points. Positive means the team did better than forecast.
Error variability: The sample standard deviation of margin errors. Higher means the forecasts for this team's games were less consistent.
Winner picked: The share of the team's games in which the forecast winner won, whichever team that was. Teams play different mixes of close and lopsided games, so this alone is not a fair measure of how hard a team is to forecast.
Average margin miss: The mean absolute margin error. This is the headline measure of how hard a team's games were for this model to forecast.
Average margin error: The mean signed margin error. Consistently positive means the model underrated the team in this sample; negative, overrated.
Brier score: The mean squared difference between the team's pregame win probability and the result (1 for a win, 0 for a loss). It rewards confident correct forecasts and penalises confident wrong ones.
Intervals and samples: Ranges are 90% bootstrap intervals (1,000 resamples of the team's games). Under 20 games no ranking is shown; 20 to 59 games is exploratory; 60 or more is roughly a full season.

More on how forecasts are made and tested: Methodology.

Upcoming

Recent results

Predictability

2026-27 (in progress)

2025-26

2024-25

2023-24

2022-23

2022-23 to 2026-27

Surprise games

Most unexpected CHA wins

Most unexpected CHA losses

Largest margin misses

Recent results the forecast got wrong

Definitions