Eastern Conference · 2026-27

Chicago Bulls CHI

1–8

2026-27 record

1350

Elo rating

with the forecast of Nov 8

108.3

Offensive rating

last 10 games

124.7

Defensive rating

last 10, lower is better

105.5

Pace

possessions per game

Hover the ball to see a season.

Every graded CHI game, one dot each, oldest at the center. 200 of 337 forecasts picked the winner (colored dots).

Elo rating, recent games

Pregame Elo stored with each of CHI's last 82 forecasts. Dashed: 1500, the long-run average.

Elo rating recorded with each team's most recent forecast. Higher is stronger; 1500 is the long-run average. CHI ranks 25 of 30.

Upcoming

Schedule

Nov 11 8:00 PM ET

SAS San Antonio Spurs 8–2 –

@CHI Chicago Bulls 1–8 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 13 8:00 PM ET

ATL Atlanta Hawks 7–4 –

@CHI Chicago Bulls 1–8 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 14 8:00 PM ET

CHI Chicago Bulls 1–8 –

@MIN Minnesota Timberwolves 8–3 –

Forecast coming Details

Recent results

Predictability

How closely the forecasts tracked CHI games. A team can be hard for this model to forecast whether it is good or bad: misses come from the model's limits, roster changes, missing information and ordinary game-to-game variation. Compare all 30 teams

2026-27 (in progress)

Small sample: 9 games. These figures are a running log, not a measurement, and no ranking is shown.

12.0 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 6.4 to 18.1

−8.7

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -16.3 to -1.3

14.4 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.7

78%

winner picked

9 games involving CHI

1 / 2.6

actual / expected wins

gap −1.6

0.111

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 9 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	CHI win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 8	vs PHI	30%	116–123	L 121–127	✓correct	+1
Nov 4	at NYK	24%	108–118	L 105–135	✓correct	−20
Nov 2	at PHI	18%	110–123	L 107–126	✓correct	−6
Oct 30	at BOS	20%	110–122	L 111–125	✓correct	−2
Oct 28	vs NYK	20%	112–124	L 127–133	✓correct	+6
Oct 26	at BOS	20%	110–122	L 99–134	✓correct	−23
Oct 24	vs WAS	59%	123–120	L 120–124	✗missed	−7
Oct 23	at MIL	47%	121–122	W 132–125	✗missed	+8
Oct 21	at TOR	28%	115–123	L 92–135	✓correct	−35

2025-26

Across 82 graded games, CHI finished an average of 3.2 points worse than the forecast margin (90% interval -5.8 to -0.6).

11.6 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.0 to 13.2; 17th smallest of 30

−3.2

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -5.8 to -0.6

14.3 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.4

56%

winner picked

82 games involving CHI

31 / 37.1

actual / expected wins

gap −6.1

0.222

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	CHI win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 12	at DAL	53%	117–116	L 128–149	✗missed	−22
Apr 10	vs ORL	22%	113–124	L 103–127	✓correct	−13
Apr 9	at WAS	71%	124–116	W 119–108	✓correct	+3
Apr 7	at WAS	69%	123–116	W 129–98	✓correct	+24
Apr 5	vs PHX	29%	114–122	L 110–120	✓correct	−2
Apr 3	at NYK	20%	113–125	L 96–136	✓correct	−28
Apr 1	vs IND	69%	124–117	L 126–145	✗missed	−26
Mar 30	at SAS	19%	115–128	L 114–129	✓correct	−2
Mar 28	at MEM	61%	120–116	L 124–125	✗missed	−5
Mar 27	at OKC	17%	112–126	L 113–131	✓correct	−4
Mar 25	at PHI	41%	118–121	L 137–157	✓correct	−17
Mar 23	vs HOU	42%	113–116	W 132–124	✗missed	+11
Mar 19	vs CLE	34%	113–119	L 110–115	✓correct	+1
Mar 18	vs TOR	42%	115–118	L 109–139	✓correct	−27
Mar 16	vs MEM	56%	118–116	W 132–107	✓correct	+23
Mar 13	at LAC	20%	112–124	L 108–119	✓correct	+1
Mar 12	at LAL	22%	110–121	L 130–142	✓correct	−1
Mar 10	at GSW	41%	115–118	W 130–124	✗missed	+9
Mar 8	at SAC	58%	118–115	L 110–126	✗missed	−19
Mar 5	at PHX	41%	108–111	W 105–103	✗missed	+5
Mar 3	vs OKC	20%	110–122	L 108–116	✓correct	+4
Mar 1	vs MIL	31%	108–115	W 120–97	✗missed	+30
Feb 26	vs POR	31%	113–120	L 112–121	✓correct	−2
Feb 24	vs CHA	24%	107–117	L 99–131	✓correct	−22
Feb 22	vs NYK	20%	111–123	L 99–105	✓correct	+6
Feb 21	vs DET	20%	113–125	L 110–126	✓correct	−4
Feb 19	vs TOR	34%	113–119	L 101–110	✓correct	−3
Feb 11	at BOS	20%	103–115	L 105–124	✓correct	−7
Feb 9	at BKN	64%	114–109	L 115–123	✗missed	−13
Feb 7	vs DEN	47%	112–113	L 120–136	✓correct	−15
Feb 5	at TOR	24%	112–122	L 107–123	✓correct	−6
Feb 3	at MIL	56%	113–111	L 115–131	✗missed	−18
Feb 1	at MIA	36%	117–122	L 91–134	✓correct	−38
Jan 31	at MIA	31%	117–124	W 125–118	✗missed	+14
Jan 29	vs MIA	56%	121–119	L 113–116	✗missed	−5
Jan 28	at IND	53%	116–115	L 110–113	✗missed	−4
Jan 26	vs LAL	53%	116–115	L 118–129	✗missed	−12
Jan 24	vs BOS	34%	107–113	W 114–111	✗missed	+9
Jan 22	at MIN	31%	116–123	W 120–115	✗missed	+12
Jan 20	vs LAC	59%	114–111	W 138–110	✓correct	+25
Jan 18	vs BKN	61%	113–109	W 124–102	✓correct	+18
Jan 16	at BKN	53%	113–112	L 109–112	✗missed	−4
Jan 14	vs UTA	61%	118–114	W 128–126	✓correct	−2
Jan 13	at HOU	20%	105–117	L 113–119	✓correct	+6
Jan 10	vs DAL	53%	116–115	W 125–107	✓correct	+17
Jan 7	at DET	17%	110–124	L 93–108	✓correct	−1
Jan 5	at BOS	17%	112–126	L 101–115	✓correct	±0
Jan 3	vs CHA	61%	122–118	L 99–112	✗missed	−17
Jan 2	vs ORL	42%	116–119	W 121–114	✗missed	+10
Dec 31	vs NOP	47%	118–119	W 134–118	✗missed	+17
Dec 29	vs MIN	39%	115–119	L 101–136	✓correct	−31
Dec 27	vs MIL	67%	120–114	L 103–112	✗missed	−15
Dec 26	vs PHI	47%	117–118	W 109–102	✗missed	+8
Dec 23	at ATL	47%	120–121	W 126–123	✗missed	+4
Dec 21	at ATL	44%	118–120	W 152–150	✗missed	+4
Dec 19	at CLE	36%	115–120	W 136–125	✗missed	+16
Dec 17	vs CLE	36%	115–120	W 127–111	✗missed	+21
Dec 14	vs NOP	56%	121–119	L 104–114	✗missed	−12
Dec 12	at CHA	64%	117–112	W 129–126	✓correct	−2
Dec 7	vs GSW	34%	111–117	L 91–123	✓correct	−26
Dec 5	vs IND	44%	117–119	L 105–120	✓correct	−13
Dec 3	vs BKN	64%	119–114	L 103–113	✗missed	−15
Dec 1	at ORL	19%	114–127	L 120–125	✓correct	+8
Nov 29	at IND	61%	122–118	L 101–103	✗missed	−6
Nov 28	at CHA	61%	120–116	L 116–123	✗missed	−11
Nov 24	at NOP	69%	123–116	L 130–143	✗missed	−20
Nov 22	vs WAS	82%	124–111	W 121–120	✓correct	−12
Nov 21	vs MIA	47%	121–122	L 107–143	✓correct	−35
Nov 19	at POR	64%	123–118	W 122–121	✓correct	−4
Nov 17	at DEN	22%	114–125	W 130–127	✗missed	+14
Nov 16	at UTA	69%	123–116	L 147–150	✗missed	−10
Nov 12	at DET	44%	115–117	L 113–124	✓correct	−9
Nov 10	vs SAS	59%	118–115	L 117–121	✗missed	−7
Nov 8	at CLE	39%	115–119	L 122–128	✓correct	−2
Nov 7	at MIL	53%	118–117	L 110–126	✗missed	−17
Nov 4	vs PHI	71%	123–115	W 113–111	✓correct	−6
Nov 2	at NYK	53%	119–118	L 116–128	✗missed	−13
Oct 31	vs NYK	64%	118–113	W 135–125	✓correct	+5
Oct 29	vs SAC	69%	120–113	W 126–113	✓correct	+6
Oct 27	vs ATL	69%	123–116	W 128–123	✓correct	−2
Oct 25	at ORL	53%	116–115	W 110–98	✓correct	+11
Oct 22	vs DET	64%	118–113	W 115–111	✓correct	−1

2024-25

12.4 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.9 to 13.9; 29th smallest of 30

−0.1

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.9 to 2.8

15.2 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

62%

winner picked

82 games involving CHI

39 / 38.1

actual / expected wins

gap +0.9

0.241

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	CHI win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 13	at PHI	71%	121–112	W 122–102	✓correct	+11
Apr 11	vs WAS	77%	126–115	W 119–89	✓correct	+19
Apr 9	vs MIA	54%	120–119	W 119–111	✓correct	+7
Apr 8	at CLE	31%	119–126	L 113–135	✓correct	−15
Apr 6	at CHA	73%	124–114	W 131–117	✓correct	+4
Apr 4	vs POR	59%	120–117	W 118–113	✓correct	+2
Apr 1	vs TOR	67%	121–115	W 137–118	✓correct	+13
Mar 31	at OKC	21%	112–124	L 117–145	✓correct	−16
Mar 29	vs DAL	69%	123–116	L 119–120	✗missed	−8
Mar 27	vs LAL	67%	121–115	W 119–117	✓correct	−4
Mar 24	at DEN	51%	121–120	W 129–119	✓correct	+9
Mar 22	at LAL	31%	113–120	W 146–115	✗missed	+38
Mar 20	at SAC	33%	115–121	W 128–116	✗missed	+18
Mar 19	at PHX	43%	115–117	L 121–127	✓correct	−4
Mar 17	at UTA	61%	119–114	W 111–97	✓correct	+9
Mar 15	at HOU	33%	113–119	L 114–117	✓correct	+3
Mar 13	vs BKN	64%	117–112	W 116–110	✓correct	+1
Mar 10	vs IND	36%	115–121	W 121–103	✗missed	+24
Mar 8	at MIA	27%	109–118	W 114–109	✗missed	+14
Mar 6	at ORL	31%	109–116	W 125–123	✗missed	+9
Mar 4	vs CLE	18%	110–125	L 117–139	✓correct	−7
Mar 2	at IND	27%	115–124	L 112–127	✓correct	−6
Feb 28	vs TOR	57%	116–114	W 125–115	✓correct	+8
Feb 26	vs LAC	44%	115–118	L 117–122	✓correct	−2
Feb 24	at PHI	36%	112–117	W 142–110	✗missed	+37
Feb 22	vs PHX	39%	115–120	L 117–121	✓correct	+1
Feb 20	at NYK	19%	111–124	L 111–113	✓correct	+11
Feb 12	vs DET	27%	114–124	L 110–128	✓correct	−8
Feb 11	vs DET	36%	114–120	L 92–132	✓correct	−34
Feb 8	vs GSW	49%	117–118	L 111–132	✓correct	−20
Feb 5	at MIN	27%	112–121	L 108–127	✓correct	−10
Feb 4	vs MIA	54%	115–114	W 133–124	✓correct	+8
Feb 2	at DET	27%	111–120	L 119–127	✓correct	+1
Jan 31	at TOR	33%	110–116	W 122–106	✗missed	+22
Jan 29	at BOS	19%	105–118	L 100–122	✓correct	−9
Jan 27	vs DEN	32%	113–121	W 129–121	✗missed	+16
Jan 25	vs PHI	54%	112–111	L 97–109	✗missed	−13
Jan 23	at GSW	43%	114–116	L 106–131	✓correct	−23
Jan 20	at LAC	31%	111–118	W 112–99	✗missed	+20
Jan 19	at POR	61%	119–114	L 102–113	✗missed	−16
Jan 17	vs CHA	75%	118–108	L 123–125	✗missed	−12
Jan 15	vs ATL	69%	125–118	L 94–110	✗missed	−23
Jan 14	vs NOP	71%	122–114	L 113–119	✗missed	−14
Jan 12	vs SAC	44%	114–117	L 119–124	✓correct	−2
Jan 10	vs WAS	62%	119–115	W 138–105	✓correct	+29
Jan 8	at IND	33%	114–120	L 113–129	✓correct	−10
Jan 6	vs SAS	59%	115–112	W 114–110	✓correct	+1
Jan 4	vs NYK	34%	111–118	W 139–126	✗missed	+20
Jan 1	at WAS	61%	119–114	L 107–125	✗missed	−23
Dec 30	at CHA	73%	122–112	W 115–108	✓correct	−3
Dec 28	vs MIL	49%	113–114	W 116–111	✗missed	+6
Dec 26	at ATL	41%	115–118	L 133–141	✓correct	−5
Dec 23	vs MIL	64%	119–114	L 91–112	✗missed	−26
Dec 21	vs BOS	44%	118–121	L 98–123	✓correct	−22
Dec 19	at BOS	31%	115–122	W 117–108	✗missed	+16
Dec 16	at TOR	59%	121–117	W 122–121	✓correct	−3
Dec 13	vs CHA	77%	123–112	W 109–95	✓correct	+3
Dec 8	vs PHI	62%	117–113	L 100–108	✗missed	−12
Dec 6	vs IND	64%	123–118	L 123–132	✗missed	−14
Dec 5	at SAS	41%	116–119	W 139–124	✗missed	+18
Dec 2	vs BKN	67%	123–117	W 128–102	✓correct	+20
Nov 29	vs BOS	29%	114–123	L 129–138	✓correct	±0
Nov 27	at ORL	25%	110–120	L 119–133	✓correct	−4
Nov 26	at WAS	64%	123–117	W 127–108	✓correct	+13
Nov 23	vs MEM	54%	118–117	L 131–142	✗missed	−12
Nov 22	vs ATL	49%	118–119	W 136–122	✗missed	+15
Nov 20	at MIL	33%	114–120	L 106–122	✓correct	−10
Nov 18	at DET	38%	115–119	W 122–112	✗missed	+14
Nov 17	vs HOU	39%	113–118	L 107–143	✓correct	−31
Nov 15	at CLE	25%	112–122	L 126–144	✓correct	−8
Nov 13	at NYK	25%	112–122	W 124–123	✗missed	+11
Nov 11	vs CLE	39%	116–121	L 113–119	✓correct	−1
Nov 9	at ATL	43%	117–119	W 125–113	✗missed	+14
Nov 7	vs MIN	49%	115–116	L 119–135	✓correct	−15
Nov 6	at DAL	33%	113–119	L 99–119	✓correct	−14
Nov 4	vs UTA	77%	122–111	L 126–135	✗missed	−20
Nov 1	at BKN	46%	115–116	L 112–120	✓correct	−7
Oct 30	vs ORL	49%	114–115	W 102–99	✗missed	+4
Oct 28	at MEM	54%	117–115	W 126–123	✓correct	+1
Oct 26	vs OKC	49%	110–111	L 95–114	✓correct	−18
Oct 25	at MIL	36%	109–114	W 133–122	✗missed	+16
Oct 23	at NOP	38%	106–110	L 111–123	✓correct	−8

2023-24

9.9 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 8.7 to 11.3; 4th smallest of 30

−1.9

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -4.0 to 0.3

12.2 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.3

61%

winner picked

82 games involving CHI

39 / 41.6

actual / expected wins

gap −2.6

0.241

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	CHI win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 14	at NYK	39%	104–107	L 119–120	✓correct	+2
Apr 12	at WAS	49%	113–111	W 129–127	✓correct	±0
Apr 11	at DET	55%	112–107	W 127–105	✓correct	+17
Apr 9	vs NYK	37%	105–114	L 117–128	✓correct	−2
Apr 7	at ORL	41%	110–112	L 98–113	✓correct	−13
Apr 5	vs NYK	57%	115–114	W 108–100	✓correct	+7
Apr 1	vs ATL	57%	116–115	L 101–113	✗missed	−13
Mar 31	at MIN	43%	112–113	W 109–101	✗missed	+9
Mar 29	at BKN	57%	113–107	L 108–125	✗missed	−23
Mar 27	vs IND	53%	116–117	W 125–99	✗missed	+27
Mar 25	vs WAS	82%	126–110	L 105–107	✗missed	−18
Mar 23	vs BOS	53%	114–115	L 113–124	✓correct	−10
Mar 21	at HOU	47%	114–113	L 117–127	✗missed	−11
Mar 18	vs POR	70%	114–106	W 110–107	✓correct	−5
Mar 16	vs WAS	73%	119–109	W 127–98	✓correct	+19
Mar 14	vs LAC	45%	109–114	L 111–126	✓correct	−10
Mar 13	at IND	39%	114–117	W 132–129	✗missed	+6
Mar 11	vs DAL	53%	115–116	L 92–127	✓correct	−34
Mar 9	at LAC	37%	109–113	L 102–112	✓correct	−6
Mar 7	at GSW	35%	111–116	W 125–122	✗missed	+8
Mar 6	at UTA	57%	120–114	W 119–117	✓correct	−4
Mar 4	at SAC	43%	112–113	W 113–109	✗missed	+5
Mar 1	vs MIL	51%	111–113	L 97–113	✓correct	−14
Feb 28	vs CLE	47%	112–116	W 132–123	✗missed	+13
Feb 27	vs DET	81%	123–108	L 95–105	✗missed	−25
Feb 25	at NOP	39%	109–112	W 114–106	✗missed	+11
Feb 22	vs BOS	49%	116–119	L 112–129	✓correct	−14
Feb 14	at CLE	34%	110–116	L 105–108	✓correct	+3
Feb 12	at ATL	49%	122–120	W 136–126	✓correct	+8
Feb 10	at ORL	41%	111–113	L 108–114	✓correct	−4
Feb 8	at MEM	53%	113–109	W 118–110	✓correct	+4
Feb 6	vs MIN	47%	111–115	W 129–123	✗missed	+10
Feb 3	vs SAC	57%	117–116	L 115–123	✗missed	−9
Jan 31	at CHA	55%	116–111	W 117–110	✓correct	+2
Jan 30	vs TOR	67%	118–112	L 107–118	✗missed	−17
Jan 28	at POR	61%	117–109	W 104–96	✓correct	±0
Jan 25	at LAL	43%	116–117	L 132–141	✓correct	−8
Jan 22	at PHX	41%	114–116	L 113–115	✓correct	±0
Jan 20	vs MEM	65%	114–109	W 125–96	✓correct	+24
Jan 18	at TOR	47%	118–117	W 116–110	✓correct	+5
Jan 15	at CLE	35%	111–116	L 91–109	✓correct	−13
Jan 13	at SAS	57%	119–113	W 122–116	✓correct	±0
Jan 12	vs GSW	57%	113–112	L 131–140	✗missed	−10
Jan 10	vs HOU	61%	115–112	W 124–119	✓correct	+2
Jan 8	at CHA	57%	114–108	W 119–112	✓correct	+1
Jan 5	vs CHA	68%	113–106	W 104–91	✓correct	+6
Jan 3	at NYK	39%	115–118	L 100–116	✓correct	−13
Jan 2	at PHI	35%	109–114	L 97–110	✓correct	−8
Dec 30	vs PHI	57%	114–113	W 105–92	✓correct	+12
Dec 28	vs IND	61%	118–115	L 104–120	✗missed	−19
Dec 26	vs ATL	53%	114–115	W 118–113	✗missed	+6
Dec 23	vs CLE	65%	115–110	L 95–109	✗missed	−19
Dec 21	vs SAS	76%	123–111	W 114–95	✓correct	+7
Dec 20	vs LAL	53%	115–116	W 124–108	✗missed	+17
Dec 18	at PHI	30%	111–119	W 108–104	✗missed	+12
Dec 16	at MIA	35%	111–116	L 116–118	✓correct	+3
Dec 14	at MIA	37%	110–114	W 124–116	✗missed	+12
Dec 12	vs DEN	51%	112–114	L 106–114	✓correct	−6
Dec 11	at MIL	28%	112–121	L 129–133	✓correct	+5
Dec 8	at SAS	43%	112–113	W 121–112	✗missed	+10
Dec 6	vs CHA	68%	114–107	W 111–100	✓correct	+4
Dec 2	vs NOP	47%	108–112	W 124–118	✗missed	+10
Nov 30	vs MIL	45%	110–115	W 120–113	✗missed	+12
Nov 28	at BOS	41%	107–109	L 97–124	✓correct	−25
Nov 26	at BKN	41%	110–112	L 109–118	✓correct	−7
Nov 24	at TOR	37%	111–115	L 108–121	✓correct	−9
Nov 22	at OKC	34%	110–116	L 102–116	✓correct	−8
Nov 20	vs MIA	53%	109–110	L 100–118	✓correct	−17
Nov 18	vs MIA	57%	112–111	W 102–97	✓correct	+4
Nov 17	vs ORL	57%	112–111	L 97–103	✗missed	−7
Nov 15	vs ORL	59%	112–110	L 94–96	✗missed	−4
Nov 13	at MIL	37%	113–117	L 109–118	✓correct	−5
Nov 12	vs DET	70%	116–108	W 119–108	✓correct	+3
Nov 8	vs PHX	59%	112–110	L 115–116	✗missed	−3
Nov 6	vs UTA	59%	114–112	W 130–113	✓correct	+15
Nov 4	at DEN	35%	107–112	L 101–123	✓correct	−17
Nov 3	vs BKN	61%	111–108	L 107–109	✗missed	−5
Nov 1	at DAL	37%	113–117	L 105–114	✓correct	−5
Oct 30	at IND	43%	117–118	W 112–105	✗missed	+8
Oct 28	at DET	55%	115–110	L 102–118	✗missed	−21
Oct 27	vs TOR	57%	112–111	W 104–103	✓correct	±0
Oct 25	vs OKC	63%	117–113	L 104–124	✗missed	−24

2022-23

11.7 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.1 to 13.5; 28th smallest of 30

+1.3

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -1.4 to 4.0

14.9 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 10.3

56%

winner picked

82 games involving CHI

40 / 40.9

actual / expected wins

gap −0.9

0.254

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	CHI win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 9	vs DET	87%	120–102	W 103–81	✓correct	+4
Apr 7	at DAL	60%	113–109	W 115–112	✓correct	−1
Apr 5	at MIL	42%	114–117	L 92–105	✓correct	−10
Apr 4	vs ATL	72%	120–111	L 105–123	✗missed	−27
Apr 2	vs MEM	37%	112–117	W 128–107	✗missed	+26
Mar 31	at CHA	70%	115–107	W 121–91	✓correct	+22
Mar 29	vs LAL	53%	111–110	L 110–121	✗missed	−12
Mar 27	at LAC	40%	107–111	L 112–124	✓correct	−8
Mar 26	at LAL	47%	110–111	W 118–108	✗missed	+11
Mar 24	at POR	72%	121–112	W 124–96	✓correct	+19
Mar 22	vs PHI	55%	112–110	L 91–116	✗missed	−27
Mar 20	at PHI	40%	107–111	W 109–105	✗missed	+8
Mar 18	vs MIA	63%	115–110	W 113–99	✓correct	+9
Mar 17	vs MIN	55%	114–112	W 139–131	✓correct	+6
Mar 15	vs SAC	60%	119–115	L 114–117	✗missed	−7
Mar 11	at HOU	68%	117–110	W 119–111	✓correct	+1
Mar 8	at DEN	37%	107–112	W 117–96	✗missed	+26
Mar 5	vs IND	65%	118–112	L 122–125	✗missed	−9
Mar 3	vs PHX	42%	108–111	L 104–125	✓correct	−18
Mar 1	at DET	65%	112–106	W 117–115	✓correct	−4
Feb 28	at TOR	58%	114–111	L 98–104	✗missed	−9
Feb 26	vs WAS	58%	115–112	W 102–82	✓correct	+17
Feb 24	vs BKN	35%	111–117	W 131–87	✗missed	+50
Feb 16	vs MIL	35%	112–118	L 100–112	✓correct	−6
Feb 15	at IND	58%	118–115	L 113–117	✗missed	−7
Feb 13	vs ORL	45%	111–113	L 91–100	✓correct	−7
Feb 11	at CLE	35%	110–116	L 89–97	✓correct	−2
Feb 9	at BKN	37%	115–120	L 105–116	✓correct	−6
Feb 7	at MEM	47%	114–115	L 89–104	✓correct	−14
Feb 6	vs SAS	84%	121–105	W 128–104	✓correct	+8
Feb 4	vs POR	60%	120–116	W 129–121	✓correct	+4
Feb 2	vs CHA	70%	119–111	W 114–98	✓correct	+8
Jan 31	vs LAC	55%	116–114	L 103–108	✗missed	−7
Jan 28	at ORL	63%	118–113	W 128–109	✓correct	+14
Jan 26	at CHA	65%	122–116	L 96–111	✗missed	−21
Jan 24	at IND	70%	120–112	L 110–116	✗missed	−14
Jan 23	vs ATL	65%	121–115	W 111–100	✓correct	+5
Jan 19	at DET	65%	124–118	W 126–108	✓correct	+12
Jan 15	vs GSW	45%	114–116	W 132–118	✗missed	+16
Jan 13	vs OKC	55%	117–115	L 110–124	✗missed	−16
Jan 11	at WAS	58%	118–115	L 97–100	✗missed	−6
Jan 9	at BOS	22%	111–123	L 99–107	✓correct	+4
Jan 7	vs UTA	53%	117–116	W 126–118	✓correct	+7
Jan 6	at PHI	26%	106–116	W 126–112	✗missed	+24
Jan 4	vs BKN	37%	116–121	W 121–112	✗missed	+14
Jan 2	at CLE	35%	108–114	L 134–145	✓correct	−5
Dec 31	vs CLE	40%	110–114	L 102–103	✓correct	+3
Dec 30	vs DET	74%	121–111	W 132–118	✓correct	+4
Dec 28	vs MIL	53%	118–117	W 119–113	✓correct	+5
Dec 26	vs HOU	72%	115–106	L 118–133	✗missed	−24
Dec 23	at NYK	35%	107–113	W 118–117	✗missed	+7
Dec 21	at ATL	40%	113–117	W 110–108	✗missed	+6
Dec 20	at MIA	58%	115–112	W 113–103	✓correct	+7
Dec 18	at MIN	60%	115–111	L 126–150	✗missed	−28
Dec 16	vs NYK	40%	113–117	L 91–114	✓correct	−19
Dec 14	vs NYK	47%	114–115	L 120–128	✓correct	−7
Dec 11	at ATL	45%	111–113	L 122–123	✓correct	+1
Dec 10	vs DAL	47%	114–115	W 144–115	✗missed	+30
Dec 7	vs WAS	53%	117–116	W 115–111	✓correct	+3
Dec 4	at SAC	35%	113–119	L 101–110	✓correct	−3
Dec 2	at GSW	42%	112–115	L 111–119	✓correct	−5
Nov 30	at PHX	28%	109–118	L 113–132	✓correct	−10
Nov 28	at UTA	40%	114–118	W 114–107	✗missed	+11
Nov 25	at OKC	65%	118–112	L 119–123	✗missed	−10
Nov 23	at MIL	42%	109–112	W 118–113	✗missed	+8
Nov 21	vs BOS	28%	111–120	W 121–107	✗missed	+23
Nov 18	vs ORL	74%	115–105	L 107–108	✗missed	−11
Nov 16	at NOP	42%	110–113	L 110–124	✓correct	−11
Nov 13	vs DEN	42%	114–117	L 103–126	✓correct	−20
Nov 9	vs NOP	37%	110–115	L 111–115	✓correct	+1
Nov 7	vs TOR	35%	105–111	W 111–97	✗missed	+20
Nov 6	at TOR	37%	106–111	L 104–113	✓correct	−4
Nov 4	at BOS	42%	108–111	L 119–123	✓correct	−1
Nov 2	vs CHA	35%	108–114	W 106–88	✗missed	+24
Nov 1	at BKN	47%	111–112	W 108–99	✗missed	+10
Oct 29	vs PHI	37%	104–109	L 109–114	✓correct	±0
Oct 28	at SAS	40%	108–112	L 124–129	✓correct	−1
Oct 26	vs IND	60%	116–112	W 124–109	✓correct	+11
Oct 24	vs BOS	28%	101–110	W 120–102	✗missed	+27
Oct 22	vs CLE	42%	107–110	L 96–128	✓correct	−29
Oct 21	at WAS	53%	114–113	L 100–102	✗missed	−3
Oct 19	at MIA	30%	103–111	W 116–108	✗missed	+16

2022-23 to 2026-27

11.4 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.7 to 12.2; 23rd smallest of 30

−1.2

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.5 to 0.1

14.3 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

59%

winner picked

337 games involving CHI

150 / 160.4

actual / expected wins

gap −10.4

0.236

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 337 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	CHI win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 8	vs PHI	30%	116–123	L 121–127	✓correct	+1
Nov 4	at NYK	24%	108–118	L 105–135	✓correct	−20
Nov 2	at PHI	18%	110–123	L 107–126	✓correct	−6
Oct 30	at BOS	20%	110–122	L 111–125	✓correct	−2
Oct 28	vs NYK	20%	112–124	L 127–133	✓correct	+6
Oct 26	at BOS	20%	110–122	L 99–134	✓correct	−23
Oct 24	vs WAS	59%	123–120	L 120–124	✗missed	−7
Oct 23	at MIL	47%	121–122	W 132–125	✗missed	+8
Oct 21	at TOR	28%	115–123	L 92–135	✓correct	−35
Apr 12	at DAL	53%	117–116	L 128–149	✗missed	−22
Apr 10	vs ORL	22%	113–124	L 103–127	✓correct	−13
Apr 9	at WAS	71%	124–116	W 119–108	✓correct	+3
Apr 7	at WAS	69%	123–116	W 129–98	✓correct	+24
Apr 5	vs PHX	29%	114–122	L 110–120	✓correct	−2
Apr 3	at NYK	20%	113–125	L 96–136	✓correct	−28
Apr 1	vs IND	69%	124–117	L 126–145	✗missed	−26
Mar 30	at SAS	19%	115–128	L 114–129	✓correct	−2
Mar 28	at MEM	61%	120–116	L 124–125	✗missed	−5
Mar 27	at OKC	17%	112–126	L 113–131	✓correct	−4
Mar 25	at PHI	41%	118–121	L 137–157	✓correct	−17
Mar 23	vs HOU	42%	113–116	W 132–124	✗missed	+11
Mar 19	vs CLE	34%	113–119	L 110–115	✓correct	+1
Mar 18	vs TOR	42%	115–118	L 109–139	✓correct	−27
Mar 16	vs MEM	56%	118–116	W 132–107	✓correct	+23
Mar 13	at LAC	20%	112–124	L 108–119	✓correct	+1
Mar 12	at LAL	22%	110–121	L 130–142	✓correct	−1
Mar 10	at GSW	41%	115–118	W 130–124	✗missed	+9
Mar 8	at SAC	58%	118–115	L 110–126	✗missed	−19
Mar 5	at PHX	41%	108–111	W 105–103	✗missed	+5
Mar 3	vs OKC	20%	110–122	L 108–116	✓correct	+4
Mar 1	vs MIL	31%	108–115	W 120–97	✗missed	+30
Feb 26	vs POR	31%	113–120	L 112–121	✓correct	−2
Feb 24	vs CHA	24%	107–117	L 99–131	✓correct	−22
Feb 22	vs NYK	20%	111–123	L 99–105	✓correct	+6
Feb 21	vs DET	20%	113–125	L 110–126	✓correct	−4
Feb 19	vs TOR	34%	113–119	L 101–110	✓correct	−3
Feb 11	at BOS	20%	103–115	L 105–124	✓correct	−7
Feb 9	at BKN	64%	114–109	L 115–123	✗missed	−13
Feb 7	vs DEN	47%	112–113	L 120–136	✓correct	−15
Feb 5	at TOR	24%	112–122	L 107–123	✓correct	−6
Feb 3	at MIL	56%	113–111	L 115–131	✗missed	−18
Feb 1	at MIA	36%	117–122	L 91–134	✓correct	−38
Jan 31	at MIA	31%	117–124	W 125–118	✗missed	+14
Jan 29	vs MIA	56%	121–119	L 113–116	✗missed	−5
Jan 28	at IND	53%	116–115	L 110–113	✗missed	−4
Jan 26	vs LAL	53%	116–115	L 118–129	✗missed	−12
Jan 24	vs BOS	34%	107–113	W 114–111	✗missed	+9
Jan 22	at MIN	31%	116–123	W 120–115	✗missed	+12
Jan 20	vs LAC	59%	114–111	W 138–110	✓correct	+25
Jan 18	vs BKN	61%	113–109	W 124–102	✓correct	+18
Jan 16	at BKN	53%	113–112	L 109–112	✗missed	−4
Jan 14	vs UTA	61%	118–114	W 128–126	✓correct	−2
Jan 13	at HOU	20%	105–117	L 113–119	✓correct	+6
Jan 10	vs DAL	53%	116–115	W 125–107	✓correct	+17
Jan 7	at DET	17%	110–124	L 93–108	✓correct	−1
Jan 5	at BOS	17%	112–126	L 101–115	✓correct	±0
Jan 3	vs CHA	61%	122–118	L 99–112	✗missed	−17
Jan 2	vs ORL	42%	116–119	W 121–114	✗missed	+10
Dec 31	vs NOP	47%	118–119	W 134–118	✗missed	+17
Dec 29	vs MIN	39%	115–119	L 101–136	✓correct	−31
Dec 27	vs MIL	67%	120–114	L 103–112	✗missed	−15
Dec 26	vs PHI	47%	117–118	W 109–102	✗missed	+8
Dec 23	at ATL	47%	120–121	W 126–123	✗missed	+4
Dec 21	at ATL	44%	118–120	W 152–150	✗missed	+4
Dec 19	at CLE	36%	115–120	W 136–125	✗missed	+16
Dec 17	vs CLE	36%	115–120	W 127–111	✗missed	+21
Dec 14	vs NOP	56%	121–119	L 104–114	✗missed	−12
Dec 12	at CHA	64%	117–112	W 129–126	✓correct	−2
Dec 7	vs GSW	34%	111–117	L 91–123	✓correct	−26
Dec 5	vs IND	44%	117–119	L 105–120	✓correct	−13
Dec 3	vs BKN	64%	119–114	L 103–113	✗missed	−15
Dec 1	at ORL	19%	114–127	L 120–125	✓correct	+8
Nov 29	at IND	61%	122–118	L 101–103	✗missed	−6
Nov 28	at CHA	61%	120–116	L 116–123	✗missed	−11
Nov 24	at NOP	69%	123–116	L 130–143	✗missed	−20
Nov 22	vs WAS	82%	124–111	W 121–120	✓correct	−12
Nov 21	vs MIA	47%	121–122	L 107–143	✓correct	−35
Nov 19	at POR	64%	123–118	W 122–121	✓correct	−4
Nov 17	at DEN	22%	114–125	W 130–127	✗missed	+14
Nov 16	at UTA	69%	123–116	L 147–150	✗missed	−10
Nov 12	at DET	44%	115–117	L 113–124	✓correct	−9
Nov 10	vs SAS	59%	118–115	L 117–121	✗missed	−7
Nov 8	at CLE	39%	115–119	L 122–128	✓correct	−2
Nov 7	at MIL	53%	118–117	L 110–126	✗missed	−17
Nov 4	vs PHI	71%	123–115	W 113–111	✓correct	−6
Nov 2	at NYK	53%	119–118	L 116–128	✗missed	−13
Oct 31	vs NYK	64%	118–113	W 135–125	✓correct	+5
Oct 29	vs SAC	69%	120–113	W 126–113	✓correct	+6
Oct 27	vs ATL	69%	123–116	W 128–123	✓correct	−2
Oct 25	at ORL	53%	116–115	W 110–98	✓correct	+11
Oct 22	vs DET	64%	118–113	W 115–111	✓correct	−1
Apr 13	at PHI	71%	121–112	W 122–102	✓correct	+11
Apr 11	vs WAS	77%	126–115	W 119–89	✓correct	+19
Apr 9	vs MIA	54%	120–119	W 119–111	✓correct	+7
Apr 8	at CLE	31%	119–126	L 113–135	✓correct	−15
Apr 6	at CHA	73%	124–114	W 131–117	✓correct	+4
Apr 4	vs POR	59%	120–117	W 118–113	✓correct	+2
Apr 1	vs TOR	67%	121–115	W 137–118	✓correct	+13
Mar 31	at OKC	21%	112–124	L 117–145	✓correct	−16
Mar 29	vs DAL	69%	123–116	L 119–120	✗missed	−8
Mar 27	vs LAL	67%	121–115	W 119–117	✓correct	−4
Mar 24	at DEN	51%	121–120	W 129–119	✓correct	+9
Mar 22	at LAL	31%	113–120	W 146–115	✗missed	+38
Mar 20	at SAC	33%	115–121	W 128–116	✗missed	+18
Mar 19	at PHX	43%	115–117	L 121–127	✓correct	−4
Mar 17	at UTA	61%	119–114	W 111–97	✓correct	+9
Mar 15	at HOU	33%	113–119	L 114–117	✓correct	+3
Mar 13	vs BKN	64%	117–112	W 116–110	✓correct	+1
Mar 10	vs IND	36%	115–121	W 121–103	✗missed	+24
Mar 8	at MIA	27%	109–118	W 114–109	✗missed	+14
Mar 6	at ORL	31%	109–116	W 125–123	✗missed	+9
Mar 4	vs CLE	18%	110–125	L 117–139	✓correct	−7
Mar 2	at IND	27%	115–124	L 112–127	✓correct	−6
Feb 28	vs TOR	57%	116–114	W 125–115	✓correct	+8
Feb 26	vs LAC	44%	115–118	L 117–122	✓correct	−2
Feb 24	at PHI	36%	112–117	W 142–110	✗missed	+37
Feb 22	vs PHX	39%	115–120	L 117–121	✓correct	+1
Feb 20	at NYK	19%	111–124	L 111–113	✓correct	+11
Feb 12	vs DET	27%	114–124	L 110–128	✓correct	−8
Feb 11	vs DET	36%	114–120	L 92–132	✓correct	−34
Feb 8	vs GSW	49%	117–118	L 111–132	✓correct	−20
Feb 5	at MIN	27%	112–121	L 108–127	✓correct	−10
Feb 4	vs MIA	54%	115–114	W 133–124	✓correct	+8
Feb 2	at DET	27%	111–120	L 119–127	✓correct	+1
Jan 31	at TOR	33%	110–116	W 122–106	✗missed	+22
Jan 29	at BOS	19%	105–118	L 100–122	✓correct	−9
Jan 27	vs DEN	32%	113–121	W 129–121	✗missed	+16
Jan 25	vs PHI	54%	112–111	L 97–109	✗missed	−13
Jan 23	at GSW	43%	114–116	L 106–131	✓correct	−23
Jan 20	at LAC	31%	111–118	W 112–99	✗missed	+20
Jan 19	at POR	61%	119–114	L 102–113	✗missed	−16
Jan 17	vs CHA	75%	118–108	L 123–125	✗missed	−12
Jan 15	vs ATL	69%	125–118	L 94–110	✗missed	−23
Jan 14	vs NOP	71%	122–114	L 113–119	✗missed	−14
Jan 12	vs SAC	44%	114–117	L 119–124	✓correct	−2
Jan 10	vs WAS	62%	119–115	W 138–105	✓correct	+29
Jan 8	at IND	33%	114–120	L 113–129	✓correct	−10
Jan 6	vs SAS	59%	115–112	W 114–110	✓correct	+1
Jan 4	vs NYK	34%	111–118	W 139–126	✗missed	+20
Jan 1	at WAS	61%	119–114	L 107–125	✗missed	−23
Dec 30	at CHA	73%	122–112	W 115–108	✓correct	−3
Dec 28	vs MIL	49%	113–114	W 116–111	✗missed	+6
Dec 26	at ATL	41%	115–118	L 133–141	✓correct	−5
Dec 23	vs MIL	64%	119–114	L 91–112	✗missed	−26
Dec 21	vs BOS	44%	118–121	L 98–123	✓correct	−22
Dec 19	at BOS	31%	115–122	W 117–108	✗missed	+16
Dec 16	at TOR	59%	121–117	W 122–121	✓correct	−3
Dec 13	vs CHA	77%	123–112	W 109–95	✓correct	+3
Dec 8	vs PHI	62%	117–113	L 100–108	✗missed	−12
Dec 6	vs IND	64%	123–118	L 123–132	✗missed	−14
Dec 5	at SAS	41%	116–119	W 139–124	✗missed	+18
Dec 2	vs BKN	67%	123–117	W 128–102	✓correct	+20
Nov 29	vs BOS	29%	114–123	L 129–138	✓correct	±0
Nov 27	at ORL	25%	110–120	L 119–133	✓correct	−4
Nov 26	at WAS	64%	123–117	W 127–108	✓correct	+13
Nov 23	vs MEM	54%	118–117	L 131–142	✗missed	−12
Nov 22	vs ATL	49%	118–119	W 136–122	✗missed	+15
Nov 20	at MIL	33%	114–120	L 106–122	✓correct	−10
Nov 18	at DET	38%	115–119	W 122–112	✗missed	+14
Nov 17	vs HOU	39%	113–118	L 107–143	✓correct	−31
Nov 15	at CLE	25%	112–122	L 126–144	✓correct	−8
Nov 13	at NYK	25%	112–122	W 124–123	✗missed	+11
Nov 11	vs CLE	39%	116–121	L 113–119	✓correct	−1
Nov 9	at ATL	43%	117–119	W 125–113	✗missed	+14
Nov 7	vs MIN	49%	115–116	L 119–135	✓correct	−15
Nov 6	at DAL	33%	113–119	L 99–119	✓correct	−14
Nov 4	vs UTA	77%	122–111	L 126–135	✗missed	−20
Nov 1	at BKN	46%	115–116	L 112–120	✓correct	−7
Oct 30	vs ORL	49%	114–115	W 102–99	✗missed	+4
Oct 28	at MEM	54%	117–115	W 126–123	✓correct	+1
Oct 26	vs OKC	49%	110–111	L 95–114	✓correct	−18
Oct 25	at MIL	36%	109–114	W 133–122	✗missed	+16
Oct 23	at NOP	38%	106–110	L 111–123	✓correct	−8
Apr 14	at NYK	39%	104–107	L 119–120	✓correct	+2
Apr 12	at WAS	49%	113–111	W 129–127	✓correct	±0
Apr 11	at DET	55%	112–107	W 127–105	✓correct	+17
Apr 9	vs NYK	37%	105–114	L 117–128	✓correct	−2
Apr 7	at ORL	41%	110–112	L 98–113	✓correct	−13
Apr 5	vs NYK	57%	115–114	W 108–100	✓correct	+7
Apr 1	vs ATL	57%	116–115	L 101–113	✗missed	−13
Mar 31	at MIN	43%	112–113	W 109–101	✗missed	+9
Mar 29	at BKN	57%	113–107	L 108–125	✗missed	−23
Mar 27	vs IND	53%	116–117	W 125–99	✗missed	+27
Mar 25	vs WAS	82%	126–110	L 105–107	✗missed	−18
Mar 23	vs BOS	53%	114–115	L 113–124	✓correct	−10
Mar 21	at HOU	47%	114–113	L 117–127	✗missed	−11
Mar 18	vs POR	70%	114–106	W 110–107	✓correct	−5
Mar 16	vs WAS	73%	119–109	W 127–98	✓correct	+19
Mar 14	vs LAC	45%	109–114	L 111–126	✓correct	−10
Mar 13	at IND	39%	114–117	W 132–129	✗missed	+6
Mar 11	vs DAL	53%	115–116	L 92–127	✓correct	−34
Mar 9	at LAC	37%	109–113	L 102–112	✓correct	−6
Mar 7	at GSW	35%	111–116	W 125–122	✗missed	+8
Mar 6	at UTA	57%	120–114	W 119–117	✓correct	−4
Mar 4	at SAC	43%	112–113	W 113–109	✗missed	+5
Mar 1	vs MIL	51%	111–113	L 97–113	✓correct	−14
Feb 28	vs CLE	47%	112–116	W 132–123	✗missed	+13
Feb 27	vs DET	81%	123–108	L 95–105	✗missed	−25
Feb 25	at NOP	39%	109–112	W 114–106	✗missed	+11
Feb 22	vs BOS	49%	116–119	L 112–129	✓correct	−14
Feb 14	at CLE	34%	110–116	L 105–108	✓correct	+3
Feb 12	at ATL	49%	122–120	W 136–126	✓correct	+8
Feb 10	at ORL	41%	111–113	L 108–114	✓correct	−4
Feb 8	at MEM	53%	113–109	W 118–110	✓correct	+4
Feb 6	vs MIN	47%	111–115	W 129–123	✗missed	+10
Feb 3	vs SAC	57%	117–116	L 115–123	✗missed	−9
Jan 31	at CHA	55%	116–111	W 117–110	✓correct	+2
Jan 30	vs TOR	67%	118–112	L 107–118	✗missed	−17
Jan 28	at POR	61%	117–109	W 104–96	✓correct	±0
Jan 25	at LAL	43%	116–117	L 132–141	✓correct	−8
Jan 22	at PHX	41%	114–116	L 113–115	✓correct	±0
Jan 20	vs MEM	65%	114–109	W 125–96	✓correct	+24
Jan 18	at TOR	47%	118–117	W 116–110	✓correct	+5
Jan 15	at CLE	35%	111–116	L 91–109	✓correct	−13
Jan 13	at SAS	57%	119–113	W 122–116	✓correct	±0
Jan 12	vs GSW	57%	113–112	L 131–140	✗missed	−10
Jan 10	vs HOU	61%	115–112	W 124–119	✓correct	+2
Jan 8	at CHA	57%	114–108	W 119–112	✓correct	+1
Jan 5	vs CHA	68%	113–106	W 104–91	✓correct	+6
Jan 3	at NYK	39%	115–118	L 100–116	✓correct	−13
Jan 2	at PHI	35%	109–114	L 97–110	✓correct	−8
Dec 30	vs PHI	57%	114–113	W 105–92	✓correct	+12
Dec 28	vs IND	61%	118–115	L 104–120	✗missed	−19
Dec 26	vs ATL	53%	114–115	W 118–113	✗missed	+6
Dec 23	vs CLE	65%	115–110	L 95–109	✗missed	−19
Dec 21	vs SAS	76%	123–111	W 114–95	✓correct	+7
Dec 20	vs LAL	53%	115–116	W 124–108	✗missed	+17
Dec 18	at PHI	30%	111–119	W 108–104	✗missed	+12
Dec 16	at MIA	35%	111–116	L 116–118	✓correct	+3
Dec 14	at MIA	37%	110–114	W 124–116	✗missed	+12
Dec 12	vs DEN	51%	112–114	L 106–114	✓correct	−6
Dec 11	at MIL	28%	112–121	L 129–133	✓correct	+5
Dec 8	at SAS	43%	112–113	W 121–112	✗missed	+10
Dec 6	vs CHA	68%	114–107	W 111–100	✓correct	+4
Dec 2	vs NOP	47%	108–112	W 124–118	✗missed	+10
Nov 30	vs MIL	45%	110–115	W 120–113	✗missed	+12
Nov 28	at BOS	41%	107–109	L 97–124	✓correct	−25
Nov 26	at BKN	41%	110–112	L 109–118	✓correct	−7
Nov 24	at TOR	37%	111–115	L 108–121	✓correct	−9
Nov 22	at OKC	34%	110–116	L 102–116	✓correct	−8
Nov 20	vs MIA	53%	109–110	L 100–118	✓correct	−17
Nov 18	vs MIA	57%	112–111	W 102–97	✓correct	+4
Nov 17	vs ORL	57%	112–111	L 97–103	✗missed	−7
Nov 15	vs ORL	59%	112–110	L 94–96	✗missed	−4
Nov 13	at MIL	37%	113–117	L 109–118	✓correct	−5
Nov 12	vs DET	70%	116–108	W 119–108	✓correct	+3
Nov 8	vs PHX	59%	112–110	L 115–116	✗missed	−3
Nov 6	vs UTA	59%	114–112	W 130–113	✓correct	+15
Nov 4	at DEN	35%	107–112	L 101–123	✓correct	−17
Nov 3	vs BKN	61%	111–108	L 107–109	✗missed	−5
Nov 1	at DAL	37%	113–117	L 105–114	✓correct	−5
Oct 30	at IND	43%	117–118	W 112–105	✗missed	+8
Oct 28	at DET	55%	115–110	L 102–118	✗missed	−21
Oct 27	vs TOR	57%	112–111	W 104–103	✓correct	±0
Oct 25	vs OKC	63%	117–113	L 104–124	✗missed	−24
Apr 9	vs DET	87%	120–102	W 103–81	✓correct	+4
Apr 7	at DAL	60%	113–109	W 115–112	✓correct	−1
Apr 5	at MIL	42%	114–117	L 92–105	✓correct	−10
Apr 4	vs ATL	72%	120–111	L 105–123	✗missed	−27
Apr 2	vs MEM	37%	112–117	W 128–107	✗missed	+26
Mar 31	at CHA	70%	115–107	W 121–91	✓correct	+22
Mar 29	vs LAL	53%	111–110	L 110–121	✗missed	−12
Mar 27	at LAC	40%	107–111	L 112–124	✓correct	−8
Mar 26	at LAL	47%	110–111	W 118–108	✗missed	+11
Mar 24	at POR	72%	121–112	W 124–96	✓correct	+19
Mar 22	vs PHI	55%	112–110	L 91–116	✗missed	−27
Mar 20	at PHI	40%	107–111	W 109–105	✗missed	+8
Mar 18	vs MIA	63%	115–110	W 113–99	✓correct	+9
Mar 17	vs MIN	55%	114–112	W 139–131	✓correct	+6
Mar 15	vs SAC	60%	119–115	L 114–117	✗missed	−7
Mar 11	at HOU	68%	117–110	W 119–111	✓correct	+1
Mar 8	at DEN	37%	107–112	W 117–96	✗missed	+26
Mar 5	vs IND	65%	118–112	L 122–125	✗missed	−9
Mar 3	vs PHX	42%	108–111	L 104–125	✓correct	−18
Mar 1	at DET	65%	112–106	W 117–115	✓correct	−4
Feb 28	at TOR	58%	114–111	L 98–104	✗missed	−9
Feb 26	vs WAS	58%	115–112	W 102–82	✓correct	+17
Feb 24	vs BKN	35%	111–117	W 131–87	✗missed	+50
Feb 16	vs MIL	35%	112–118	L 100–112	✓correct	−6
Feb 15	at IND	58%	118–115	L 113–117	✗missed	−7
Feb 13	vs ORL	45%	111–113	L 91–100	✓correct	−7
Feb 11	at CLE	35%	110–116	L 89–97	✓correct	−2
Feb 9	at BKN	37%	115–120	L 105–116	✓correct	−6
Feb 7	at MEM	47%	114–115	L 89–104	✓correct	−14
Feb 6	vs SAS	84%	121–105	W 128–104	✓correct	+8
Feb 4	vs POR	60%	120–116	W 129–121	✓correct	+4
Feb 2	vs CHA	70%	119–111	W 114–98	✓correct	+8
Jan 31	vs LAC	55%	116–114	L 103–108	✗missed	−7
Jan 28	at ORL	63%	118–113	W 128–109	✓correct	+14
Jan 26	at CHA	65%	122–116	L 96–111	✗missed	−21
Jan 24	at IND	70%	120–112	L 110–116	✗missed	−14
Jan 23	vs ATL	65%	121–115	W 111–100	✓correct	+5
Jan 19	at DET	65%	124–118	W 126–108	✓correct	+12
Jan 15	vs GSW	45%	114–116	W 132–118	✗missed	+16
Jan 13	vs OKC	55%	117–115	L 110–124	✗missed	−16
Jan 11	at WAS	58%	118–115	L 97–100	✗missed	−6
Jan 9	at BOS	22%	111–123	L 99–107	✓correct	+4
Jan 7	vs UTA	53%	117–116	W 126–118	✓correct	+7
Jan 6	at PHI	26%	106–116	W 126–112	✗missed	+24
Jan 4	vs BKN	37%	116–121	W 121–112	✗missed	+14
Jan 2	at CLE	35%	108–114	L 134–145	✓correct	−5
Dec 31	vs CLE	40%	110–114	L 102–103	✓correct	+3
Dec 30	vs DET	74%	121–111	W 132–118	✓correct	+4
Dec 28	vs MIL	53%	118–117	W 119–113	✓correct	+5
Dec 26	vs HOU	72%	115–106	L 118–133	✗missed	−24
Dec 23	at NYK	35%	107–113	W 118–117	✗missed	+7
Dec 21	at ATL	40%	113–117	W 110–108	✗missed	+6
Dec 20	at MIA	58%	115–112	W 113–103	✓correct	+7
Dec 18	at MIN	60%	115–111	L 126–150	✗missed	−28
Dec 16	vs NYK	40%	113–117	L 91–114	✓correct	−19
Dec 14	vs NYK	47%	114–115	L 120–128	✓correct	−7
Dec 11	at ATL	45%	111–113	L 122–123	✓correct	+1
Dec 10	vs DAL	47%	114–115	W 144–115	✗missed	+30
Dec 7	vs WAS	53%	117–116	W 115–111	✓correct	+3
Dec 4	at SAC	35%	113–119	L 101–110	✓correct	−3
Dec 2	at GSW	42%	112–115	L 111–119	✓correct	−5
Nov 30	at PHX	28%	109–118	L 113–132	✓correct	−10
Nov 28	at UTA	40%	114–118	W 114–107	✗missed	+11
Nov 25	at OKC	65%	118–112	L 119–123	✗missed	−10
Nov 23	at MIL	42%	109–112	W 118–113	✗missed	+8
Nov 21	vs BOS	28%	111–120	W 121–107	✗missed	+23
Nov 18	vs ORL	74%	115–105	L 107–108	✗missed	−11
Nov 16	at NOP	42%	110–113	L 110–124	✓correct	−11
Nov 13	vs DEN	42%	114–117	L 103–126	✓correct	−20
Nov 9	vs NOP	37%	110–115	L 111–115	✓correct	+1
Nov 7	vs TOR	35%	105–111	W 111–97	✗missed	+20
Nov 6	at TOR	37%	106–111	L 104–113	✓correct	−4
Nov 4	at BOS	42%	108–111	L 119–123	✓correct	−1
Nov 2	vs CHA	35%	108–114	W 106–88	✗missed	+24
Nov 1	at BKN	47%	111–112	W 108–99	✗missed	+10
Oct 29	vs PHI	37%	104–109	L 109–114	✓correct	±0
Oct 28	at SAS	40%	108–112	L 124–129	✓correct	−1
Oct 26	vs IND	60%	116–112	W 124–109	✓correct	+11
Oct 24	vs BOS	28%	101–110	W 120–102	✗missed	+27
Oct 22	vs CLE	42%	107–110	L 96–128	✓correct	−29
Oct 21	at WAS	53%	114–113	L 100–102	✗missed	−3
Oct 19	at MIA	30%	103–111	W 116–108	✗missed	+16

Surprise games

All CHI surprises

Across every graded season. The percentage is the pregame chance the forecast gave the team that won.

Most unexpected CHI wins

22%CHI beat DEN130–127Nov 17, 2025-26 · forecast DEN125–114 · missed margin by 14
25%CHI beat NYK124–123Nov 13, 2024-25 · forecast NYK122–112 · missed margin by 11
26%CHI beat PHI126–112Jan 6, 2022-23 · forecast PHI116–106 · missed margin by 24
27%CHI beat MIA114–109Mar 8, 2024-25 · forecast MIA118–109 · missed margin by 14
28%CHI beat BOS121–107Nov 21, 2022-23 · forecast BOS120–111 · missed margin by 23

Most unexpected CHI losses

18%WAS beat CHI107–105Mar 25, 2023-24 · forecast CHI126–110 · missed margin by 18
19%DET beat CHI105–95Feb 27, 2023-24 · forecast CHI123–108 · missed margin by 25
23%UTA beat CHI135–126Nov 4, 2024-25 · forecast CHI122–111 · missed margin by 20
25%CHA beat CHI125–123Jan 17, 2024-25 · forecast CHI118–108 · missed margin by 12
26%ORL beat CHI108–107Nov 18, 2022-23 · forecast CHI115–105 · missed margin by 11

Largest margin misses

35%CHI beat BKN131–87Feb 24, 2022-23 · forecast BKN117–111 · missed margin by 50
64%MIA beat CHI134–91Feb 1, 2025-26 · forecast MIA122–117 · missed margin by 38
31%CHI beat LAL146–115Mar 22, 2024-25 · forecast LAL120–113 · missed margin by 38
36%CHI beat PHI142–110Feb 24, 2024-25 · forecast PHI117–112 · missed margin by 37
72%TOR beat CHI135–92Oct 21, 2026-27 · forecast TOR123–115 · missed margin by 35

Definitions

Expected wins: The sum of the team's pregame win probabilities over the games in the sample (home: the stored home win probability; road: one minus it).
Wins vs expectation: Actual wins minus expected wins. It describes results relative to the forecasts, not why they differed.
Margin error: The team's actual margin minus its forecast margin, in points. Positive means the team did better than forecast.
Error variability: The sample standard deviation of margin errors. Higher means the forecasts for this team's games were less consistent.
Winner picked: The share of the team's games in which the forecast winner won, whichever team that was. Teams play different mixes of close and lopsided games, so this alone is not a fair measure of how hard a team is to forecast.
Average margin miss: The mean absolute margin error. This is the headline measure of how hard a team's games were for this model to forecast.
Average margin error: The mean signed margin error. Consistently positive means the model underrated the team in this sample; negative, overrated.
Brier score: The mean squared difference between the team's pregame win probability and the result (1 for a win, 0 for a loss). It rewards confident correct forecasts and penalises confident wrong ones.
Intervals and samples: Ranges are 90% bootstrap intervals (1,000 resamples of the team's games). Under 20 games no ranking is shown; 20 to 59 games is exploratory; 60 or more is roughly a full season.

More on how forecasts are made and tested: Methodology.

Upcoming

Recent results

Predictability

2026-27 (in progress)

2025-26

2024-25

2023-24

2022-23

2022-23 to 2026-27

Surprise games

Most unexpected CHI wins

Most unexpected CHI losses

Largest margin misses

Recent results the forecast got wrong

Definitions