2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat

Saturday, December 10, 2022 · tip-off time not recorded

SAS 0–3@MIA 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
SAS San Antonio Spurs	106	115	+9
MIA Miami Heat (home)	119	111	−8

Forecast: Miami Heat to win, 80% win probability, projected margin 13.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	SAS	MIA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1356	1524
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+238
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−11.0	−1.6
Games played this season	25	26
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	104.8	106.8
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	120.7	111.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	100.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	29.7	9.8
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAS1356MIA1524

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAS1356

Ended last season at 1486 → started this one at 1489
First 15 games: −44.9
Last 10 games: −88.3

L@SAC112–130−10.4
L@LAC97–119−10.5
L@LAL92–123−18.3
LNOP110–129−10.6
LLAL94–105−12.8
LLAL138–143−7.5
L@OKC111–119−6.1
LNOP99–117−8.3
LPHX95–133−12.0
WHOU118–109+8.2

MIA1524

Ended last season at 1646 → started this one at 1610
First 16 games: −53.5
Last 10 games: −32.1

L@CLE87–113−15.9
L@MIN101–105−5.3
WWAS113–105+5.1
WWAS110–107+3.0
W@ATL106–98+11.0
L@BOS121–134−5.2
W@BOS120–116+11.6
L@MEM93–101−6.3
LDET96–116−34.3
WLAC115–110+4.2

Season scoring marginSAS−11.0MIA−1.6

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAS−11.0

Scores 109.8, allows 120.8 over 25 games: −11.0 a game.

MIA−1.6

Scores 108.5, allows 110.2 over 26 games: −1.6 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10SAS104.8MIA106.8

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 112.1).

SAS104.8scored, −7.3 vs league

Factor	SAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.8%	54.0%	−4.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.6%	12.7%	+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.3%	23.9%	+0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.144	0.209	−1.9
Everything else			−1.4

MIA106.8scored, −5.3 vs league

Factor	MIA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.4%	54.0%	−3.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.3%	12.7%	+0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.6%	23.9%	−1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.191	0.209	−0.5
Everything else			−0.4

Defensive rating, last 10SAS120.7MIA111.6

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 112.1).

SAS120.7allowed, +8.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	59.8%	54.0%	−8.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.7%	12.7%	+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.9%	23.9%	+0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.220	0.209	−0.3
Everything else			+0.1

MIA111.6allowed, −0.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.1%	54.0%	−1.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.4%	12.7%	+1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	20.9%	23.9%	+1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.179	0.209	+0.9
Everything else			−1.0

Pace, last 10average 100.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAS 101.7 and MIA 98.3 → average 100.0 (league 2022-23 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingSAS29.7MIA9.8

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAS29.7pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Jakob Poeltl	11.2	22.6	5
Jeremy Sochan	9.5	26.7	6
Keita Bates-Diop	9.0	24.4	8

Source: official injury report, 2022-12-10 17:30 ET. 12 rotation players.

MIA9.8pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Nikola Jović	6.0	18.2	5
Gabe Vincent	3.8	19.5	4

Source: official injury report, 2022-12-10 17:30 ET. 12 rotation players.

RestSAS2 daysMIA2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAS2days

Last played Dec 8 against HOU.

MIA2days

Last played Dec 8 against LAC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Dec 8	HOU	118–109	46-83	13-36	13-15	16	7	120.4	110.1	98.5
Dec 4	PHX	95–133	38-87	6-31	13-18	19	12	96.0	134.3	99.0
Dec 2	NOP	99–117	38-98	11-39	12-16	12	10	94.3	113.6	104.0
Nov 30	@OKC	111–119	41-92	10-37	19-25	10	13	108.8	119.0	101.0
Nov 26	LAL	138–143	53-105	18-37	14-20	10	17	129.0	132.4	107.5
Nov 25	LAL	94–105	38-100	6-33	12-16	16	20	92.2	102.9	102.0
Nov 23	NOP	110–129	41-85	10-34	18-28	18	8	103.8	120.6	106.5
Nov 20	@LAL	92–123	41-105	7-34	3-10	10	13	88.5	118.3	104.0
Nov 19	@LAC	97–119	36-87	7-26	18-21	15	15	102.1	124.0	95.5
Nov 17	@SAC	112–130	46-84	11-26	9-12	18	7	113.1	131.3	99.0

MIA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Dec 8	LAC	115–110	46-90	12-32	11-14	8	7	118.6	113.4	97.0
Dec 6	DET	96–116	33-77	10-32	20-26	15	7	100.0	122.1	95.5
Dec 5	@MEM	93–101	31-79	14-40	17-22	16	9	96.9	106.3	95.5
Dec 2	@BOS	120–116	48-101	11-35	13-18	16	12	107.1	104.5	101.0
Nov 30	@BOS	121–134	47-90	18-40	9-9	15	9	123.5	135.4	98.5
Nov 27	@ATL	106–98	40-82	9-33	17-19	12	6	107.1	99.0	99.0
Nov 25	WAS	110–107	42-89	7-26	19-23	10	10	113.4	109.2	97.5
Nov 23	WAS	113–105	39-93	16-41	19-22	12	14	113.0	106.1	99.5
Nov 21	@MIN	101–105	35-90	11-38	20-30	15	12	97.1	101.0	104.0
Nov 20	@CLE	87–113	31-80	6-31	19-22	16	11	91.6	118.9	95.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games

20%

pregame chance the forecast gave SAS, the winner

the forecast favored MIA

17 pts

margin miss

forecast +13, actual −4 for MIA

12th

most surprising result of 2022-23

of 1,314 graded games

232nd

largest margin miss of 2022-23

outcome surprise 1.59 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	SAS	MIA
Final score	115	111
Field goals	42–78 · 53.8%	39–81 · 48.1%
Three-pointers	7–21 · 33.3%	13–34 · 38.2%
Free throws	24–31 · 77.4%	20–28 · 71.4%
Rebounds	46	32
Assists	24	26
Turnovers	18	10
Steals	8	5
Blocks	4	3

How the model does with these teams over time: San Antonio Spurs · Miami Heat

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (MIA)	+13	−4	−17
Total points	225	226	+1
SAS points	106	115	+9
MIA points	119	111	−8

Recent form before this game