The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for May 15

2025-26 · Playoffs · Final

San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves

Friday, May 15, 2026 · tip-off 9:30 PM ET

SAS 3–4@MIN 2–9 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: SAS 47 percent, MIN 53 percent. SAS Spurs 47% proj. 107 · final 139 MIN Timberwolves · home 53% proj. 108 · final 109
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
SAS San Antonio Spurs 107 139 +32
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves (home) 108 109 +1

Forecast: Minnesota Timberwolves to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputSASMIN
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 17531585
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −98
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +8.7+2.5
Games played this season 9393
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 115.5108.7
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 102.2110.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.010.3
Rest days 33
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo
Playoff series state 2 home series wins, elimination game

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAS1753MIN1585

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAS1753

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1417 → started this one at 1438
  2. First 83 games: +298.7
  3. Last 10 games: +16.6
  • WPOR111–98+3.3
  • LPOR103–106−12.2
  • W@POR120–108+7.0
  • W@POR114–93+9.6
  • WPOR114–95+3.9
  • LMIN102–104−9.3
  • WMIN133–95+10.3
  • W@MIN115–108+5.9
  • L@MIN109–114−9.8
  • WMIN126–97+7.9

MIN1585

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1690 → started this one at 1642
  2. First 83 games: −98.5
  3. Last 10 games: +41.0
  • W@DEN119–114+12.5
  • WDEN113–96+16.2
  • WDEN112–96+13.9
  • L@DEN113–125−7.5
  • WDEN110–98+10.9
  • W@SAS104–102+9.3
  • L@SAS95–133−10.3
  • LSAS108–115−5.9
  • WSAS114–109+9.8
  • L@SAS97–126−7.9
Season scoring marginSAS+8.7MIN+2.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAS+8.7

Scores 119.2, allows 110.5 over 93 games: +8.7 a game.

MIN+2.5

Scores 116.8, allows 114.3 over 93 games: +2.5 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10SAS115.5MIN108.7

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).

SAS115.5scored, +0.9 vs league

FactorSASLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.4%54.6%+1.2
Turnovers (TOV%)12.1%12.2%+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.1%26.1%+0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2340.210+0.7
Everything else−1.1

MIN108.7scored, −6.0 vs league

FactorMINLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.0%54.6%−7.0
Turnovers (TOV%)12.1%12.2%+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.3%26.1%+1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2080.210−0.1
Everything else−0.1
Defensive rating, last 10SAS102.2MIN110.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).

SAS102.2allowed, −12.4 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)47.0%54.6%+11.4
Turnovers (TOV%)11.9%12.2%−0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.9%26.1%+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1950.210+0.4
Everything else+0.9

MIN110.7allowed, −3.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.1%54.6%+3.7
Turnovers (TOV%)11.3%12.2%−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.8%26.1%+2.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2680.210−1.7
Everything else+0.9
Pace, last 10average 99.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAS 99.5 and MIN 100.3 → average 99.9 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingSAS0.0MIN10.3

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-05-15 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

MIN10.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Donte DiVincenzo10.321.63

Source: official injury report, 2026-05-15 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestSAS3 daysMIN3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAS3days

Last played May 12 against MIN.

MIN3days

Last played May 12 against SAS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
May 12MIN126–9747-8911-3221-271511122.394.2103.0
May 10@MIN109–11441-866-2621-271413107.9115.2100.0
May 8@MIN115–10839-8512-3325-3398113.9106.9101.0
May 6MIN133–9545-9016-3927-331513122.086.4109.5
May 4MIN102–10439-8710-3614-181313106.3108.396.0
Apr 28POR114–9541-7512-3020-29147121.399.095.0
Apr 26@POR114–9343-8714-3314-17129116.393.099.0
Apr 24@POR120–10841-8716-3322-281314122.4109.198.5
Apr 21POR103–10638-867-2420-281612106.2108.297.5
Apr 19POR111–9840-8415-3316-191311116.8102.195.5

MIN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
May 12@SAS97–12632-839-3324-30131094.2122.3103.0
May 10SAS114–10942-9410-2720-221715115.2107.9100.0
May 8SAS108–11538-9914-4018-211215106.9113.9101.0
May 6@SAS95–13335-889-3016-31221286.4122.0109.5
May 4@SAS104–10241-9010-2612-211012108.3106.396.0
Apr 30DEN110–9843-947-2917-24719118.3105.493.0
Apr 27@DEN113–12541-8112-2819-23259109.7122.5102.5
Apr 25DEN112–9639-899-2525-261216119.1101.194.5
Apr 23DEN113–9644-939-3416-211012111.995.0101.0
Apr 20@DEN119–11443-9014-3419-30129116.7110.7102.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games
47%
pregame chance the forecast gave SAS, the winner
the forecast favored MIN
31 pts
margin miss
forecast +1, actual −30 for MIN
325th
most surprising result of 2025-26
of 1,309 graded games
39th
largest margin miss of 2025-26
outcome surprise 0.76 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statSASMIN
Final score139109
Field goals49–88 · 55.7%40–106 · 37.7%
Three-pointers18–38 · 47.4%12–34 · 35.3%
Free throws23–27 · 85.2%17–21 · 81.0%
Rebounds6029
Assists3425
Turnovers155
Steals29
Blocks132

How the model does with these teams over time: San Antonio Spurs · Minnesota Timberwolves

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (MIN)+1−30−31
Total points215248+33
SAS points107139+32
MIN points108109+1

Recent form before this game

San Antonio Spurs

DateOpponentResult
May 12 vs MIN W 126–97
May 10 at MIN L 109–114
May 8 at MIN W 115–108
May 6 vs MIN W 133–95
May 4 vs MIN L 102–104

Minnesota Timberwolves

DateOpponentResult
May 12 at SAS L 97–126
May 10 vs SAS W 114–109
May 8 vs SAS L 108–115
May 6 at SAS L 95–133
May 4 at SAS W 104–102

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
May 12 2025-26 MIN at SAS MIN 97 – 126 SAS
May 10 2025-26 SAS at MIN SAS 109 – 114 MIN
May 8 2025-26 SAS at MIN SAS 115 – 108 MIN
May 6 2025-26 MIN at SAS MIN 95 – 133 SAS
May 4 2025-26 MIN at SAS MIN 104 – 102 SAS