Western Conference · 2026-27

Portland Trail Blazers POR

6–3

2026-27 record

1548

Elo rating

with the forecast of Nov 7

115.8

Offensive rating

last 10 games

113.0

Defensive rating

last 10, lower is better

100.8

Pace

possessions per game

Hover the ball to see a season.

Every graded POR game, one dot each, oldest at the center. 227 of 342 forecasts picked the winner (colored dots).

Elo rating, recent games

Pregame Elo stored with each of POR's last 82 forecasts. Dashed: 1500, the long-run average.

Elo rating recorded with each team's most recent forecast. Higher is stronger; 1500 is the long-run average. POR ranks 12 of 30.

Upcoming

Schedule

Nov 10 11:00 PM ET

OKC Oklahoma City Thunder 8–2 –

@POR Portland Trail Blazers 6–3 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 11 10:00 PM ET

OKC Oklahoma City Thunder 8–2 –

@POR Portland Trail Blazers 6–3 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 13 10:00 PM ET

POR Portland Trail Blazers 6–3 –

@SAC Sacramento Kings 1–9 –

Forecast coming Details

Recent results

Predictability

How closely the forecasts tracked POR games. A team can be hard for this model to forecast whether it is good or bad: misses come from the model's limits, roster changes, missing information and ordinary game-to-game variation. Compare all 30 teams

2026-27 (in progress)

Small sample: 9 games. These figures are a running log, not a measurement, and no ranking is shown.

15.1 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 8.9 to 22.0

+4.4

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -6.3 to 14.6

19.9 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.7

67%

winner picked

9 games involving POR

6 / 4.7

actual / expected wins

gap +1.3

0.236

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 9 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	POR win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 7	vs SAS	32%	109–115	L 103–125	✓correct	−16
Nov 6	at LAL	36%	114–119	L 118–124	✓correct	−1
Nov 4	at PHX	53%	114–112	W 132–119	✓correct	+11
Nov 2	at DEN	39%	112–116	W 118–110	✗missed	+12
Oct 31	at UTA	72%	126–118	W 112–90	✓correct	+14
Oct 29	vs MEM	76%	122–112	L 103–124	✗missed	−31
Oct 27	at LAL	47%	111–112	W 136–129	✗missed	+8
Oct 23	at SAC	64%	117–112	W 128–120	✓correct	+3
Oct 21	vs PHX	53%	114–113	W 124–83	✓correct	+40

2025-26

10.6 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.2 to 12.2; 8th smallest of 30

−0.9

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -3.2 to 1.4

13.5 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.4

66%

winner picked

87 games involving POR

43 / 43.3

actual / expected wins

gap −0.3

0.210

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 87 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	POR win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 28 PO	at SAS	31%	102–109	L 95–114	✓correct	−12
Apr 26 PO	vs SAS	45%	107–109	L 93–114	✓correct	−19
Apr 24 PO	vs SAS	55%	106–104	L 108–120	✗missed	−14
Apr 21 PO	at SAS	26%	105–114	W 106–103	✗missed	+12
Apr 19 PO	at SAS	17%	102–116	L 98–111	✓correct	+1
Apr 12	vs SAC	83%	119–105	W 122–110	✓correct	−2
Apr 10	vs LAC	53%	113–112	W 116–97	✓correct	+18
Apr 8	at SAS	24%	111–121	L 101–112	✓correct	−1
Apr 6	at DEN	39%	118–122	L 132–137	✓correct	−1
Apr 2	vs NOP	69%	118–111	W 118–106	✓correct	+5
Mar 31	at LAC	39%	112–116	W 114–104	✗missed	+14
Mar 29	vs WAS	83%	123–109	W 123–88	✓correct	+21
Mar 27	vs DAL	80%	125–113	L 93–100	✗missed	−19
Mar 25	vs MIL	83%	121–107	W 130–99	✓correct	+17
Mar 23	vs BKN	85%	120–105	W 134–99	✓correct	+20
Mar 22	at DEN	41%	118–121	L 112–128	✓correct	−13
Mar 20	at MIN	47%	116–117	W 108–104	✗missed	+5
Mar 18	at IND	74%	122–113	W 127–119	✓correct	−1
Mar 16	at BKN	74%	116–107	W 114–95	✓correct	+10
Mar 15	at PHI	58%	116–113	L 103–109	✗missed	−9
Mar 13	vs UTA	78%	122–111	W 124–114	✓correct	−1
Mar 10	vs CHA	39%	110–114	L 101–103	✓correct	+2
Mar 8	vs IND	80%	125–113	W 131–111	✓correct	+8
Mar 6	at HOU	26%	110–119	L 99–106	✓correct	+2
Mar 4	at MEM	58%	120–117	W 122–114	✓correct	+5
Mar 1	at ATL	34%	113–119	L 101–135	✓correct	−28
Feb 28	at CHA	26%	111–120	L 93–109	✓correct	−7
Feb 26	at CHI	69%	120–113	W 121–112	✓correct	+2
Feb 24	vs MIN	36%	117–122	L 121–124	✓correct	+2
Feb 22	at PHX	47%	116–117	W 92–77	✗missed	+16
Feb 20	vs DEN	47%	117–118	L 103–157	✓correct	−53
Feb 12	at UTA	69%	119–112	W 135–119	✓correct	+9
Feb 11	at MIN	31%	114–121	L 109–133	✓correct	−17
Feb 9	vs PHI	44%	114–116	W 135–118	✗missed	+19
Feb 7	vs MEM	61%	120–116	W 122–115	✓correct	+3
Feb 6	vs MEM	64%	120–115	W 135–115	✓correct	+15
Feb 3	vs PHX	47%	110–111	L 125–130	✓correct	−4
Feb 1	vs CLE	56%	116–114	L 111–130	✗missed	−21
Jan 30	at NYK	39%	109–113	L 97–127	✓correct	−26
Jan 27	at WAS	71%	120–112	L 111–115	✗missed	−12
Jan 26	at BOS	41%	110–113	L 94–102	✓correct	−5
Jan 23	vs TOR	53%	113–112	L 98–110	✗missed	−13
Jan 22	vs MIA	71%	120–112	W 127–110	✓correct	+9
Jan 18	at SAC	56%	114–112	W 117–110	✓correct	+5
Jan 17	vs LAL	59%	115–112	W 132–116	✓correct	+13
Jan 15	vs ATL	47%	116–117	W 117–101	✗missed	+17
Jan 13	at GSW	39%	114–118	L 97–119	✓correct	−18
Jan 11	vs NYK	53%	115–114	L 114–123	✗missed	−10
Jan 9	vs HOU	36%	109–114	W 111–105	✗missed	+11
Jan 7	vs HOU	36%	108–113	W 103–102	✗missed	+6
Jan 5	vs UTA	67%	121–115	W 137–117	✓correct	+14
Jan 3	at SAS	26%	112–121	W 115–110	✗missed	+14
Jan 2	at NOP	61%	120–116	W 122–109	✓correct	+9
Dec 31	at OKC	11%	108–126	L 95–124	✓correct	−11
Dec 29	vs DAL	53%	118–117	W 125–122	✓correct	+2
Dec 28	vs BOS	29%	109–117	W 114–108	✗missed	+14
Dec 26	vs LAC	44%	113–115	L 103–119	✓correct	−14
Dec 23	vs ORL	42%	115–118	L 106–110	✓correct	−1
Dec 22	vs DET	36%	115–120	L 102–110	✓correct	−3
Dec 20	at SAC	61%	119–115	W 98–93	✓correct	+1
Dec 18	vs SAC	61%	119–115	W 134–133	✓correct	−3
Dec 14	vs GSW	34%	113–119	W 136–131	✗missed	+11
Dec 11	at NOP	69%	121–114	L 120–143	✗missed	−30
Dec 7	at MEM	34%	113–119	L 96–119	✓correct	−17
Dec 5	at DET	31%	114–121	L 116–122	✓correct	+1
Dec 3	at CLE	34%	114–120	W 122–110	✗missed	+18
Dec 2	at TOR	31%	113–120	L 118–121	✓correct	+4
Nov 30	vs OKC	36%	114–119	L 115–123	✓correct	−3
Nov 26	vs SAS	56%	119–117	L 102–115	✗missed	−15
Nov 24	at MIL	47%	116–117	W 115–103	✗missed	+13
Nov 23	at OKC	11%	109–127	L 95–122	✓correct	−9
Nov 21	at GSW	26%	114–123	W 127–123	✗missed	+13
Nov 19	vs CHI	36%	118–123	L 121–122	✓correct	+4
Nov 18	vs PHX	47%	119–120	L 110–127	✓correct	−16
Nov 16	at DAL	58%	119–116	L 133–138	✗missed	−8
Nov 14	at HOU	34%	115–121	L 116–140	✓correct	−18
Nov 12	at NOP	81%	123–110	W 125–117	✓correct	−5
Nov 10	at ORL	58%	121–118	L 112–115	✗missed	−6
Nov 8	at MIA	58%	119–116	L 131–136	✗missed	−8
Nov 5	vs OKC	47%	116–117	W 121–119	✗missed	+3
Nov 3	vs LAL	67%	116–110	L 115–123	✗missed	−14
Oct 31	vs DEN	59%	116–113	W 109–107	✓correct	−1
Oct 29	at UTA	66%	120–114	W 136–134	✓correct	−4
Oct 27	at LAL	47%	113–114	W 122–108	✗missed	+15
Oct 26	at LAC	39%	110–114	L 107–114	✓correct	−3
Oct 24	vs GSW	56%	112–110	W 139–119	✓correct	+18
Oct 22	vs MIN	53%	114–113	L 114–118	✗missed	−5

2024-25

13.1 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 11.3 to 14.9; 30th smallest of 30

+0.8

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.3 to 3.8

16.6 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

63%

winner picked

82 games involving POR

36 / 33.7

actual / expected wins

gap +2.3

0.217

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	POR win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 13	vs LAL	46%	114–116	W 109–81	✗missed	+30
Apr 11	vs GSW	39%	113–118	L 86–103	✓correct	−12
Apr 9	at UTA	69%	121–113	L 126–133	✗missed	−15
Apr 6	vs SAS	54%	115–114	W 120–109	✓correct	+10
Apr 4	at CHI	41%	117–120	L 113–118	✓correct	−2
Apr 3	at TOR	61%	117–112	W 112–103	✓correct	+4
Apr 1	at ATL	38%	114–118	W 127–113	✗missed	+18
Mar 30	at NYK	38%	109–113	L 93–110	✓correct	−13
Mar 27	at SAC	51%	113–112	L 107–128	✗missed	−22
Mar 25	vs CLE	41%	110–114	L 111–122	✓correct	−7
Mar 23	vs BOS	39%	104–109	L 116–129	✓correct	−8
Mar 21	vs DEN	49%	112–113	W 128–109	✗missed	+20
Mar 19	vs MEM	54%	116–115	W 115–99	✓correct	+15
Mar 17	vs WAS	64%	116–111	W 112–97	✓correct	+10
Mar 16	vs TOR	69%	118–111	W 105–102	✓correct	−4
Mar 12	vs NYK	64%	116–111	L 113–114	✗missed	−6
Mar 10	at GSW	31%	113–120	L 120–130	✓correct	−3
Mar 9	vs DET	54%	118–117	L 112–119	✗missed	−8
Mar 7	at OKC	41%	120–123	L 89–107	✓correct	−15
Mar 5	at BOS	27%	111–120	L 118–128	✓correct	−1
Mar 3	at PHI	56%	116–113	W 119–102	✓correct	+14
Mar 2	at CLE	16%	110–125	L 129–133	✓correct	+11
Feb 28	at BKN	56%	110–107	W 121–102	✓correct	+16
Feb 26	at WAS	64%	117–111	W 129–121	✓correct	+2
Feb 24	at UTA	64%	119–113	W 114–112	✓correct	−4
Feb 22	vs CHA	71%	113–105	W 141–88	✓correct	+45
Feb 20	vs LAL	46%	114–116	L 102–110	✓correct	−6
Feb 12	at DEN	25%	108–118	L 121–132	✓correct	−1
Feb 10	at DEN	38%	110–114	L 117–146	✓correct	−25
Feb 8	at MIN	43%	108–110	L 98–114	✓correct	−14
Feb 6	vs SAC	54%	115–114	W 108–102	✓correct	+5
Feb 4	vs IND	46%	112–114	W 112–89	✗missed	+25
Feb 3	vs PHX	49%	112–113	W 121–119	✗missed	+3
Feb 1	vs PHX	46%	111–113	W 127–108	✗missed	+21
Jan 30	vs ORL	57%	109–107	W 119–90	✓correct	+27
Jan 28	vs MIL	44%	111–114	W 125–112	✗missed	+16
Jan 26	vs OKC	29%	107–116	L 108–118	✓correct	−1
Jan 24	at CHA	51%	111–110	W 102–97	✓correct	+4
Jan 23	at ORL	33%	106–112	W 101–79	✗missed	+28
Jan 21	at MIA	27%	107–116	W 116–107	✗missed	+18
Jan 19	vs CHI	39%	114–119	W 113–102	✗missed	+16
Jan 18	vs HOU	32%	107–115	L 103–125	✓correct	−14
Jan 16	vs LAC	39%	110–115	L 89–118	✓correct	−24
Jan 14	vs BKN	62%	109–105	L 114–132	✗missed	−22
Jan 11	vs MIA	39%	107–112	L 98–119	✓correct	−16
Jan 9	at DAL	33%	108–114	L 111–117	✓correct	±0
Jan 8	at NOP	43%	114–116	W 119–100	✗missed	+21
Jan 6	at DET	31%	112–119	L 115–118	✓correct	+4
Jan 4	at MIL	19%	108–121	W 105–102	✗missed	+16
Jan 2	at LAL	29%	110–118	L 106–114	✓correct	±0
Dec 30	vs PHI	39%	110–115	L 103–125	✓correct	−17
Dec 28	vs DAL	44%	113–116	W 126–122	✗missed	+7
Dec 26	vs UTA	57%	116–114	W 122–120	✓correct	±0
Dec 23	at DAL	15%	108–124	L 108–132	✓correct	−8
Dec 21	at SAS	33%	113–119	L 94–114	✓correct	−14
Dec 19	vs DEN	29%	116–125	W 126–124	✗missed	+11
Dec 15	at PHX	23%	109–120	L 109–116	✓correct	+4
Dec 13	vs SAS	62%	117–113	L 116–118	✗missed	−6
Dec 8	at LAL	29%	108–116	L 98–107	✓correct	−1
Dec 6	vs UTA	59%	112–109	L 99–141	✗missed	−45
Dec 3	at LAC	23%	107–118	L 105–127	✓correct	−11
Dec 1	vs DAL	44%	113–116	L 131–137	✓correct	−3
Nov 29	vs SAC	46%	111–113	W 115–106	✗missed	+11
Nov 27	at IND	21%	108–120	L 114–121	✓correct	+5
Nov 25	at MEM	31%	113–120	L 98–123	✓correct	−18
Nov 23	at HOU	21%	107–119	W 104–98	✗missed	+18
Nov 22	at HOU	21%	108–120	L 88–116	✓correct	−16
Nov 20	at OKC	18%	105–119	L 99–109	✓correct	+4
Nov 17	vs ATL	44%	116–119	W 114–110	✗missed	+7
Nov 13	vs MIN	39%	109–114	W 106–98	✗missed	+13
Nov 12	vs MIN	46%	109–111	W 122–108	✗missed	+16
Nov 10	vs MEM	57%	116–114	L 89–134	✗missed	−47
Nov 8	at MIN	25%	106–116	L 102–127	✓correct	−15
Nov 7	at SAS	41%	107–110	L 105–118	✓correct	−10
Nov 4	at NOP	36%	108–113	W 118–100	✗missed	+23
Nov 2	at PHX	19%	105–118	L 97–103	✓correct	+7
Nov 1	vs OKC	34%	106–113	L 114–137	✓correct	−16
Oct 30	at LAC	25%	103–113	W 106–105	✗missed	+11
Oct 28	at SAC	25%	106–116	L 98–111	✓correct	−3
Oct 27	vs NOP	41%	108–112	W 125–103	✗missed	+26
Oct 25	vs NOP	34%	108–115	L 103–105	✓correct	+5
Oct 23	vs GSW	36%	108–114	L 104–140	✓correct	−30

2023-24

Across 82 graded games, POR finished an average of 3.0 points worse than the forecast margin (90% interval -5.5 to -0.3).

11.1 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.3 to 12.9; 18th smallest of 30

−3.0

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -5.5 to -0.3

14.7 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.3

73%

winner picked

82 games involving POR

21 / 31.6

actual / expected wins

gap −10.6

0.200

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	POR win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 14	at SAC	18%	99–115	L 82–121	✓correct	−23
Apr 12	vs HOU	47%	107–111	L 107–116	✓correct	−5
Apr 11	vs GSW	47%	109–113	L 92–100	✓correct	−4
Apr 9	vs NOP	39%	106–114	L 100–110	✓correct	−2
Apr 7	at BOS	24%	100–112	L 107–124	✓correct	−5
Apr 5	at WAS	37%	109–113	W 108–102	✗missed	+10
Apr 3	at CHA	43%	111–112	W 89–86	✗missed	+4
Apr 1	at ORL	18%	99–115	L 103–104	✓correct	+15
Mar 29	at MIA	32%	101–108	L 82–142	✓correct	−53
Mar 27	at ATL	35%	104–109	L 106–120	✓correct	−9
Mar 25	at HOU	32%	108–115	L 92–110	✓correct	−11
Mar 23	vs DEN	35%	107–117	L 111–114	✓correct	+7
Mar 22	vs LAC	31%	105–117	L 117–125	✓correct	+4
Mar 20	vs LAC	37%	106–115	L 103–116	✓correct	−4
Mar 18	at CHI	30%	106–114	L 107–110	✓correct	+5
Mar 16	at NOP	22%	101–114	L 107–126	✓correct	−6
Mar 14	vs NYK	49%	105–108	L 93–105	✓correct	−9
Mar 13	vs ATL	53%	109–110	W 106–102	✗missed	+5
Mar 11	vs BOS	45%	105–110	L 99–121	✓correct	−17
Mar 9	vs TOR	57%	116–115	W 128–118	✓correct	+9
Mar 8	vs HOU	45%	109–114	L 107–123	✓correct	−11
Mar 6	vs OKC	39%	107–115	L 120–128	✓correct	±0
Mar 4	at MIN	22%	101–114	L 114–119	✓correct	+8
Mar 2	at MEM	49%	107–105	W 107–100	✓correct	+5
Mar 1	at MEM	47%	109–108	W 122–92	✓correct	+29
Feb 27	vs MIA	45%	106–111	L 96–106	✓correct	−5
Feb 25	vs CHA	63%	113–109	L 80–93	✗missed	−17
Feb 23	vs DEN	51%	111–113	L 112–127	✓correct	−13
Feb 15	vs MIN	47%	109–113	L 91–128	✓correct	−33
Feb 13	vs MIN	45%	109–114	L 109–121	✓correct	−7
Feb 10	vs NOP	35%	112–122	L 84–93	✓correct	+1
Feb 8	vs DET	81%	126–111	L 122–128	✗missed	−21
Feb 4	at DEN	28%	103–112	L 103–112	✓correct	±0
Feb 2	at DEN	22%	103–116	L 108–120	✓correct	+1
Jan 31	vs MIL	45%	113–118	W 119–116	✗missed	+8
Jan 29	vs PHI	47%	111–115	W 130–104	✗missed	+30
Jan 28	vs CHI	39%	109–117	L 96–104	✓correct	±0
Jan 26	at SAS	32%	113–120	L 100–116	✓correct	−9
Jan 24	at HOU	30%	109–117	W 137–131	✗missed	+14
Jan 23	at OKC	18%	109–125	L 109–111	✓correct	+14
Jan 21	at LAL	27%	110–120	L 110–134	✓correct	−14
Jan 19	vs IND	37%	114–123	W 118–115	✗missed	+12
Jan 17	vs BKN	47%	112–116	W 105–103	✗missed	+6
Jan 14	vs PHX	39%	111–119	L 116–127	✓correct	−3
Jan 12	at MIN	21%	105–119	L 93–116	✓correct	−9
Jan 11	at OKC	17%	109–126	L 77–139	✓correct	−45
Jan 9	at NYK	16%	108–126	L 84–112	✓correct	−10
Jan 7	at BKN	27%	111–121	W 134–127	✗missed	+17
Jan 5	at DAL	32%	113–120	L 103–139	✓correct	−29
Jan 3	at DAL	32%	113–120	L 97–126	✓correct	−22
Jan 1	at PHX	24%	112–124	L 88–109	✓correct	−9
Dec 29	vs SAS	59%	120–118	W 134–128	✓correct	+4
Dec 28	vs SAS	67%	121–115	L 105–118	✗missed	−19
Dec 26	vs SAC	47%	115–119	W 130–113	✗missed	+21
Dec 23	at GSW	27%	111–121	L 106–126	✓correct	−10
Dec 21	vs WAS	53%	117–118	L 117–118	✓correct	±0
Dec 19	vs PHX	49%	112–115	W 109–104	✗missed	+8
Dec 17	vs GSW	53%	115–116	L 114–118	✓correct	−3
Dec 16	vs DAL	51%	111–113	L 120–131	✓correct	−9
Dec 14	vs UTA	59%	112–110	L 114–122	✗missed	−10
Dec 11	at LAC	25%	104–115	L 127–132	✓correct	+6
Dec 8	vs DAL	43%	109–115	L 112–125	✓correct	−7
Dec 6	at GSW	27%	109–119	L 106–110	✓correct	+6
Dec 2	at UTA	47%	112–111	L 113–118	✗missed	−6
Nov 30	at CLE	32%	108–115	W 103–95	✗missed	+15
Nov 27	at IND	30%	114–122	W 114–110	✗missed	+12
Nov 26	at MIL	27%	109–119	L 102–108	✓correct	+4
Nov 22	vs UTA	53%	113–114	W 121–105	✗missed	+17
Nov 21	at PHX	24%	102–114	L 107–120	✓correct	−1
Nov 19	vs OKC	49%	112–115	L 91–134	✓correct	−40
Nov 17	vs LAL	47%	110–114	L 95–107	✓correct	−8
Nov 15	vs CLE	51%	110–112	L 95–109	✓correct	−12
Nov 14	at UTA	32%	113–120	L 99–115	✓correct	−9
Nov 12	at LAL	35%	109–114	L 110–116	✓correct	−1
Nov 8	at SAC	34%	111–117	L 118–121	✓correct	+3
Nov 5	vs MEM	49%	112–115	L 100–112	✓correct	−9
Nov 3	vs MEM	49%	113–116	W 115–113	✗missed	+5
Nov 1	at DET	41%	114–116	W 110–101	✗missed	+11
Oct 30	at TOR	28%	107–116	W 99–91	✗missed	+17
Oct 29	at PHI	32%	106–113	L 98–126	✓correct	−21
Oct 27	vs ORL	47%	113–117	L 97–102	✓correct	−1
Oct 25	at LAC	32%	113–120	L 111–123	✓correct	−5

2022-23

11.4 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.0 to 12.9; 25th smallest of 30

−0.1

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.8 to 2.5

14.1 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 10.3

63%

winner picked

82 games involving POR

33 / 33.1

actual / expected wins

gap −0.1

0.237

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	POR win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 9	vs GSW	28%	118–127	L 101–157	✓correct	−47
Apr 8	at LAC	28%	115–124	L 125–136	✓correct	−2
Apr 6	at SAS	68%	123–116	L 127–129	✗missed	−9
Apr 4	at MEM	16%	112–128	L 109–119	✓correct	+6
Apr 2	at MIN	22%	114–126	W 107–105	✗missed	+14
Mar 31	vs SAC	20%	114–127	L 114–138	✓correct	−11
Mar 29	vs SAC	24%	116–127	L 80–120	✓correct	−29
Mar 27	vs NOP	20%	108–121	L 90–124	✓correct	−21
Mar 26	vs OKC	20%	111–124	L 112–118	✓correct	+7
Mar 24	vs CHI	28%	112–121	L 96–124	✓correct	−19
Mar 22	at UTA	28%	113–122	W 127–115	✗missed	+21
Mar 19	vs LAC	30%	117–125	L 102–117	✓correct	−7
Mar 17	vs BOS	32%	112–119	L 112–126	✓correct	−7
Mar 14	vs NYK	42%	117–120	L 107–123	✓correct	−13
Mar 12	at NOP	45%	113–115	L 110–127	✓correct	−15
Mar 10	at PHI	32%	108–115	L 119–120	✓correct	+6
Mar 8	at BOS	24%	110–121	L 93–115	✓correct	−11
Mar 6	at DET	68%	121–114	W 110–104	✓correct	−1
Mar 5	at ORL	37%	114–119	W 122–119	✗missed	+8
Mar 3	at ATL	30%	116–124	L 111–129	✓correct	−10
Mar 1	vs NOP	47%	118–119	L 110–121	✓correct	−10
Feb 28	at GSW	37%	116–121	L 105–123	✓correct	−13
Feb 26	vs HOU	76%	121–110	W 131–114	✓correct	+6
Feb 23	at SAC	32%	119–126	L 116–133	✓correct	−10
Feb 14	vs WAS	53%	116–115	L 101–126	✗missed	−26
Feb 13	vs LAL	47%	117–118	W 127–115	✗missed	+13
Feb 10	vs OKC	45%	119–121	L 129–138	✓correct	−7
Feb 8	vs GSW	45%	119–121	W 125–122	✗missed	+5
Feb 6	vs MIL	47%	119–120	L 108–127	✓correct	−18
Feb 4	at CHI	40%	116–120	L 121–129	✓correct	−4
Feb 3	at WAS	28%	114–123	W 124–116	✗missed	+17
Feb 1	at MEM	24%	112–123	W 122–112	✗missed	+21
Jan 30	vs ATL	53%	118–117	W 129–125	✓correct	+3
Jan 28	vs TOR	53%	119–118	L 105–123	✗missed	−19
Jan 25	vs UTA	47%	119–120	W 134–124	✗missed	+11
Jan 23	vs SAS	68%	120–113	W 147–127	✓correct	+13
Jan 22	vs LAL	42%	117–120	L 112–121	✓correct	−6
Jan 19	vs PHI	47%	119–120	L 95–105	✓correct	−9
Jan 17	at DEN	45%	111–113	L 113–122	✓correct	−7
Jan 15	vs DAL	37%	113–118	W 140–123	✗missed	+22
Jan 14	vs DAL	35%	112–118	W 136–119	✗missed	+23
Jan 12	vs CLE	28%	109–118	L 113–119	✓correct	+3
Jan 10	vs ORL	60%	119–115	L 106–109	✗missed	−7
Jan 8	at TOR	53%	113–112	L 105–117	✗missed	−13
Jan 6	at IND	47%	115–116	L 99–108	✓correct	−8
Jan 4	at MIN	53%	118–117	L 106–113	✗missed	−8
Jan 2	vs DET	74%	122–112	W 135–106	✓correct	+19
Dec 30	at GSW	40%	114–118	L 112–118	✓correct	−2
Dec 26	vs CHA	74%	123–113	W 124–113	✓correct	+1
Dec 23	at DEN	40%	113–117	L 107–120	✓correct	−9
Dec 21	at OKC	47%	117–118	L 98–101	✓correct	−2
Dec 19	at OKC	58%	120–117	L 121–123	✗missed	−5
Dec 17	at HOU	55%	116–114	W 107–95	✓correct	+10
Dec 16	at DAL	42%	112–115	L 110–130	✓correct	−17
Dec 14	at SAS	58%	117–114	W 128–112	✓correct	+13
Dec 12	vs MIN	42%	116–119	W 133–112	✗missed	+24
Dec 10	vs MIN	42%	115–118	W 124–118	✗missed	+9
Dec 8	vs DEN	40%	111–115	L 120–121	✓correct	+3
Dec 4	vs IND	47%	115–116	W 116–100	✗missed	+17
Dec 3	at UTA	24%	111–122	W 116–111	✗missed	+16
Nov 30	at LAL	40%	113–117	L 109–128	✓correct	−15
Nov 29	vs LAC	45%	109–111	L 112–118	✓correct	−4
Nov 27	at BKN	40%	108–112	L 97–111	✓correct	−10
Nov 25	at NYK	37%	110–115	W 132–129	✗missed	+8
Nov 23	at CLE	26%	103–113	L 96–114	✓correct	−8
Nov 21	at MIL	37%	106–111	L 111–119	✓correct	−3
Nov 19	vs UTA	37%	110–115	L 113–118	✓correct	±0
Nov 17	vs BKN	45%	106–108	L 107–109	✓correct	±0
Nov 15	vs SAS	68%	113–106	W 117–110	✓correct	±0
Nov 12	at DAL	35%	104–110	L 112–117	✓correct	+1
Nov 10	at NOP	37%	108–113	W 106–95	✗missed	+16
Nov 9	at CHA	42%	108–111	W 105–95	✗missed	+13
Nov 7	at MIA	32%	104–111	W 110–107	✗missed	+10
Nov 5	at PHX	26%	103–113	L 82–102	✓correct	−10
Nov 4	at PHX	20%	102–115	W 108–106	✗missed	+15
Nov 2	vs MEM	32%	106–113	L 106–111	✓correct	+2
Oct 28	vs HOU	53%	110–109	W 125–111	✓correct	+13
Oct 26	vs MIA	45%	103–105	L 98–119	✓correct	−19
Oct 24	vs DEN	30%	107–115	W 135–110	✗missed	+33
Oct 23	at LAL	24%	107–118	W 106–104	✗missed	+13
Oct 21	vs PHX	32%	102–109	W 113–111	✗missed	+9
Oct 19	at SAC	19%	102–116	W 115–108	✗missed	+21

2022-23 to 2026-27

11.6 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.8 to 12.4; 26th smallest of 30

−0.7

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.1 to 0.7

14.9 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

66%

winner picked

342 games involving POR

139 / 146.4

actual / expected wins

gap −7.5

0.216

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 342 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	POR win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 7	vs SAS	32%	109–115	L 103–125	✓correct	−16
Nov 6	at LAL	36%	114–119	L 118–124	✓correct	−1
Nov 4	at PHX	53%	114–112	W 132–119	✓correct	+11
Nov 2	at DEN	39%	112–116	W 118–110	✗missed	+12
Oct 31	at UTA	72%	126–118	W 112–90	✓correct	+14
Oct 29	vs MEM	76%	122–112	L 103–124	✗missed	−31
Oct 27	at LAL	47%	111–112	W 136–129	✗missed	+8
Oct 23	at SAC	64%	117–112	W 128–120	✓correct	+3
Oct 21	vs PHX	53%	114–113	W 124–83	✓correct	+40
Apr 28 PO	at SAS	31%	102–109	L 95–114	✓correct	−12
Apr 26 PO	vs SAS	45%	107–109	L 93–114	✓correct	−19
Apr 24 PO	vs SAS	55%	106–104	L 108–120	✗missed	−14
Apr 21 PO	at SAS	26%	105–114	W 106–103	✗missed	+12
Apr 19 PO	at SAS	17%	102–116	L 98–111	✓correct	+1
Apr 12	vs SAC	83%	119–105	W 122–110	✓correct	−2
Apr 10	vs LAC	53%	113–112	W 116–97	✓correct	+18
Apr 8	at SAS	24%	111–121	L 101–112	✓correct	−1
Apr 6	at DEN	39%	118–122	L 132–137	✓correct	−1
Apr 2	vs NOP	69%	118–111	W 118–106	✓correct	+5
Mar 31	at LAC	39%	112–116	W 114–104	✗missed	+14
Mar 29	vs WAS	83%	123–109	W 123–88	✓correct	+21
Mar 27	vs DAL	80%	125–113	L 93–100	✗missed	−19
Mar 25	vs MIL	83%	121–107	W 130–99	✓correct	+17
Mar 23	vs BKN	85%	120–105	W 134–99	✓correct	+20
Mar 22	at DEN	41%	118–121	L 112–128	✓correct	−13
Mar 20	at MIN	47%	116–117	W 108–104	✗missed	+5
Mar 18	at IND	74%	122–113	W 127–119	✓correct	−1
Mar 16	at BKN	74%	116–107	W 114–95	✓correct	+10
Mar 15	at PHI	58%	116–113	L 103–109	✗missed	−9
Mar 13	vs UTA	78%	122–111	W 124–114	✓correct	−1
Mar 10	vs CHA	39%	110–114	L 101–103	✓correct	+2
Mar 8	vs IND	80%	125–113	W 131–111	✓correct	+8
Mar 6	at HOU	26%	110–119	L 99–106	✓correct	+2
Mar 4	at MEM	58%	120–117	W 122–114	✓correct	+5
Mar 1	at ATL	34%	113–119	L 101–135	✓correct	−28
Feb 28	at CHA	26%	111–120	L 93–109	✓correct	−7
Feb 26	at CHI	69%	120–113	W 121–112	✓correct	+2
Feb 24	vs MIN	36%	117–122	L 121–124	✓correct	+2
Feb 22	at PHX	47%	116–117	W 92–77	✗missed	+16
Feb 20	vs DEN	47%	117–118	L 103–157	✓correct	−53
Feb 12	at UTA	69%	119–112	W 135–119	✓correct	+9
Feb 11	at MIN	31%	114–121	L 109–133	✓correct	−17
Feb 9	vs PHI	44%	114–116	W 135–118	✗missed	+19
Feb 7	vs MEM	61%	120–116	W 122–115	✓correct	+3
Feb 6	vs MEM	64%	120–115	W 135–115	✓correct	+15
Feb 3	vs PHX	47%	110–111	L 125–130	✓correct	−4
Feb 1	vs CLE	56%	116–114	L 111–130	✗missed	−21
Jan 30	at NYK	39%	109–113	L 97–127	✓correct	−26
Jan 27	at WAS	71%	120–112	L 111–115	✗missed	−12
Jan 26	at BOS	41%	110–113	L 94–102	✓correct	−5
Jan 23	vs TOR	53%	113–112	L 98–110	✗missed	−13
Jan 22	vs MIA	71%	120–112	W 127–110	✓correct	+9
Jan 18	at SAC	56%	114–112	W 117–110	✓correct	+5
Jan 17	vs LAL	59%	115–112	W 132–116	✓correct	+13
Jan 15	vs ATL	47%	116–117	W 117–101	✗missed	+17
Jan 13	at GSW	39%	114–118	L 97–119	✓correct	−18
Jan 11	vs NYK	53%	115–114	L 114–123	✗missed	−10
Jan 9	vs HOU	36%	109–114	W 111–105	✗missed	+11
Jan 7	vs HOU	36%	108–113	W 103–102	✗missed	+6
Jan 5	vs UTA	67%	121–115	W 137–117	✓correct	+14
Jan 3	at SAS	26%	112–121	W 115–110	✗missed	+14
Jan 2	at NOP	61%	120–116	W 122–109	✓correct	+9
Dec 31	at OKC	11%	108–126	L 95–124	✓correct	−11
Dec 29	vs DAL	53%	118–117	W 125–122	✓correct	+2
Dec 28	vs BOS	29%	109–117	W 114–108	✗missed	+14
Dec 26	vs LAC	44%	113–115	L 103–119	✓correct	−14
Dec 23	vs ORL	42%	115–118	L 106–110	✓correct	−1
Dec 22	vs DET	36%	115–120	L 102–110	✓correct	−3
Dec 20	at SAC	61%	119–115	W 98–93	✓correct	+1
Dec 18	vs SAC	61%	119–115	W 134–133	✓correct	−3
Dec 14	vs GSW	34%	113–119	W 136–131	✗missed	+11
Dec 11	at NOP	69%	121–114	L 120–143	✗missed	−30
Dec 7	at MEM	34%	113–119	L 96–119	✓correct	−17
Dec 5	at DET	31%	114–121	L 116–122	✓correct	+1
Dec 3	at CLE	34%	114–120	W 122–110	✗missed	+18
Dec 2	at TOR	31%	113–120	L 118–121	✓correct	+4
Nov 30	vs OKC	36%	114–119	L 115–123	✓correct	−3
Nov 26	vs SAS	56%	119–117	L 102–115	✗missed	−15
Nov 24	at MIL	47%	116–117	W 115–103	✗missed	+13
Nov 23	at OKC	11%	109–127	L 95–122	✓correct	−9
Nov 21	at GSW	26%	114–123	W 127–123	✗missed	+13
Nov 19	vs CHI	36%	118–123	L 121–122	✓correct	+4
Nov 18	vs PHX	47%	119–120	L 110–127	✓correct	−16
Nov 16	at DAL	58%	119–116	L 133–138	✗missed	−8
Nov 14	at HOU	34%	115–121	L 116–140	✓correct	−18
Nov 12	at NOP	81%	123–110	W 125–117	✓correct	−5
Nov 10	at ORL	58%	121–118	L 112–115	✗missed	−6
Nov 8	at MIA	58%	119–116	L 131–136	✗missed	−8
Nov 5	vs OKC	47%	116–117	W 121–119	✗missed	+3
Nov 3	vs LAL	67%	116–110	L 115–123	✗missed	−14
Oct 31	vs DEN	59%	116–113	W 109–107	✓correct	−1
Oct 29	at UTA	66%	120–114	W 136–134	✓correct	−4
Oct 27	at LAL	47%	113–114	W 122–108	✗missed	+15
Oct 26	at LAC	39%	110–114	L 107–114	✓correct	−3
Oct 24	vs GSW	56%	112–110	W 139–119	✓correct	+18
Oct 22	vs MIN	53%	114–113	L 114–118	✗missed	−5
Apr 13	vs LAL	46%	114–116	W 109–81	✗missed	+30
Apr 11	vs GSW	39%	113–118	L 86–103	✓correct	−12
Apr 9	at UTA	69%	121–113	L 126–133	✗missed	−15
Apr 6	vs SAS	54%	115–114	W 120–109	✓correct	+10
Apr 4	at CHI	41%	117–120	L 113–118	✓correct	−2
Apr 3	at TOR	61%	117–112	W 112–103	✓correct	+4
Apr 1	at ATL	38%	114–118	W 127–113	✗missed	+18
Mar 30	at NYK	38%	109–113	L 93–110	✓correct	−13
Mar 27	at SAC	51%	113–112	L 107–128	✗missed	−22
Mar 25	vs CLE	41%	110–114	L 111–122	✓correct	−7
Mar 23	vs BOS	39%	104–109	L 116–129	✓correct	−8
Mar 21	vs DEN	49%	112–113	W 128–109	✗missed	+20
Mar 19	vs MEM	54%	116–115	W 115–99	✓correct	+15
Mar 17	vs WAS	64%	116–111	W 112–97	✓correct	+10
Mar 16	vs TOR	69%	118–111	W 105–102	✓correct	−4
Mar 12	vs NYK	64%	116–111	L 113–114	✗missed	−6
Mar 10	at GSW	31%	113–120	L 120–130	✓correct	−3
Mar 9	vs DET	54%	118–117	L 112–119	✗missed	−8
Mar 7	at OKC	41%	120–123	L 89–107	✓correct	−15
Mar 5	at BOS	27%	111–120	L 118–128	✓correct	−1
Mar 3	at PHI	56%	116–113	W 119–102	✓correct	+14
Mar 2	at CLE	16%	110–125	L 129–133	✓correct	+11
Feb 28	at BKN	56%	110–107	W 121–102	✓correct	+16
Feb 26	at WAS	64%	117–111	W 129–121	✓correct	+2
Feb 24	at UTA	64%	119–113	W 114–112	✓correct	−4
Feb 22	vs CHA	71%	113–105	W 141–88	✓correct	+45
Feb 20	vs LAL	46%	114–116	L 102–110	✓correct	−6
Feb 12	at DEN	25%	108–118	L 121–132	✓correct	−1
Feb 10	at DEN	38%	110–114	L 117–146	✓correct	−25
Feb 8	at MIN	43%	108–110	L 98–114	✓correct	−14
Feb 6	vs SAC	54%	115–114	W 108–102	✓correct	+5
Feb 4	vs IND	46%	112–114	W 112–89	✗missed	+25
Feb 3	vs PHX	49%	112–113	W 121–119	✗missed	+3
Feb 1	vs PHX	46%	111–113	W 127–108	✗missed	+21
Jan 30	vs ORL	57%	109–107	W 119–90	✓correct	+27
Jan 28	vs MIL	44%	111–114	W 125–112	✗missed	+16
Jan 26	vs OKC	29%	107–116	L 108–118	✓correct	−1
Jan 24	at CHA	51%	111–110	W 102–97	✓correct	+4
Jan 23	at ORL	33%	106–112	W 101–79	✗missed	+28
Jan 21	at MIA	27%	107–116	W 116–107	✗missed	+18
Jan 19	vs CHI	39%	114–119	W 113–102	✗missed	+16
Jan 18	vs HOU	32%	107–115	L 103–125	✓correct	−14
Jan 16	vs LAC	39%	110–115	L 89–118	✓correct	−24
Jan 14	vs BKN	62%	109–105	L 114–132	✗missed	−22
Jan 11	vs MIA	39%	107–112	L 98–119	✓correct	−16
Jan 9	at DAL	33%	108–114	L 111–117	✓correct	±0
Jan 8	at NOP	43%	114–116	W 119–100	✗missed	+21
Jan 6	at DET	31%	112–119	L 115–118	✓correct	+4
Jan 4	at MIL	19%	108–121	W 105–102	✗missed	+16
Jan 2	at LAL	29%	110–118	L 106–114	✓correct	±0
Dec 30	vs PHI	39%	110–115	L 103–125	✓correct	−17
Dec 28	vs DAL	44%	113–116	W 126–122	✗missed	+7
Dec 26	vs UTA	57%	116–114	W 122–120	✓correct	±0
Dec 23	at DAL	15%	108–124	L 108–132	✓correct	−8
Dec 21	at SAS	33%	113–119	L 94–114	✓correct	−14
Dec 19	vs DEN	29%	116–125	W 126–124	✗missed	+11
Dec 15	at PHX	23%	109–120	L 109–116	✓correct	+4
Dec 13	vs SAS	62%	117–113	L 116–118	✗missed	−6
Dec 8	at LAL	29%	108–116	L 98–107	✓correct	−1
Dec 6	vs UTA	59%	112–109	L 99–141	✗missed	−45
Dec 3	at LAC	23%	107–118	L 105–127	✓correct	−11
Dec 1	vs DAL	44%	113–116	L 131–137	✓correct	−3
Nov 29	vs SAC	46%	111–113	W 115–106	✗missed	+11
Nov 27	at IND	21%	108–120	L 114–121	✓correct	+5
Nov 25	at MEM	31%	113–120	L 98–123	✓correct	−18
Nov 23	at HOU	21%	107–119	W 104–98	✗missed	+18
Nov 22	at HOU	21%	108–120	L 88–116	✓correct	−16
Nov 20	at OKC	18%	105–119	L 99–109	✓correct	+4
Nov 17	vs ATL	44%	116–119	W 114–110	✗missed	+7
Nov 13	vs MIN	39%	109–114	W 106–98	✗missed	+13
Nov 12	vs MIN	46%	109–111	W 122–108	✗missed	+16
Nov 10	vs MEM	57%	116–114	L 89–134	✗missed	−47
Nov 8	at MIN	25%	106–116	L 102–127	✓correct	−15
Nov 7	at SAS	41%	107–110	L 105–118	✓correct	−10
Nov 4	at NOP	36%	108–113	W 118–100	✗missed	+23
Nov 2	at PHX	19%	105–118	L 97–103	✓correct	+7
Nov 1	vs OKC	34%	106–113	L 114–137	✓correct	−16
Oct 30	at LAC	25%	103–113	W 106–105	✗missed	+11
Oct 28	at SAC	25%	106–116	L 98–111	✓correct	−3
Oct 27	vs NOP	41%	108–112	W 125–103	✗missed	+26
Oct 25	vs NOP	34%	108–115	L 103–105	✓correct	+5
Oct 23	vs GSW	36%	108–114	L 104–140	✓correct	−30
Apr 14	at SAC	18%	99–115	L 82–121	✓correct	−23
Apr 12	vs HOU	47%	107–111	L 107–116	✓correct	−5
Apr 11	vs GSW	47%	109–113	L 92–100	✓correct	−4
Apr 9	vs NOP	39%	106–114	L 100–110	✓correct	−2
Apr 7	at BOS	24%	100–112	L 107–124	✓correct	−5
Apr 5	at WAS	37%	109–113	W 108–102	✗missed	+10
Apr 3	at CHA	43%	111–112	W 89–86	✗missed	+4
Apr 1	at ORL	18%	99–115	L 103–104	✓correct	+15
Mar 29	at MIA	32%	101–108	L 82–142	✓correct	−53
Mar 27	at ATL	35%	104–109	L 106–120	✓correct	−9
Mar 25	at HOU	32%	108–115	L 92–110	✓correct	−11
Mar 23	vs DEN	35%	107–117	L 111–114	✓correct	+7
Mar 22	vs LAC	31%	105–117	L 117–125	✓correct	+4
Mar 20	vs LAC	37%	106–115	L 103–116	✓correct	−4
Mar 18	at CHI	30%	106–114	L 107–110	✓correct	+5
Mar 16	at NOP	22%	101–114	L 107–126	✓correct	−6
Mar 14	vs NYK	49%	105–108	L 93–105	✓correct	−9
Mar 13	vs ATL	53%	109–110	W 106–102	✗missed	+5
Mar 11	vs BOS	45%	105–110	L 99–121	✓correct	−17
Mar 9	vs TOR	57%	116–115	W 128–118	✓correct	+9
Mar 8	vs HOU	45%	109–114	L 107–123	✓correct	−11
Mar 6	vs OKC	39%	107–115	L 120–128	✓correct	±0
Mar 4	at MIN	22%	101–114	L 114–119	✓correct	+8
Mar 2	at MEM	49%	107–105	W 107–100	✓correct	+5
Mar 1	at MEM	47%	109–108	W 122–92	✓correct	+29
Feb 27	vs MIA	45%	106–111	L 96–106	✓correct	−5
Feb 25	vs CHA	63%	113–109	L 80–93	✗missed	−17
Feb 23	vs DEN	51%	111–113	L 112–127	✓correct	−13
Feb 15	vs MIN	47%	109–113	L 91–128	✓correct	−33
Feb 13	vs MIN	45%	109–114	L 109–121	✓correct	−7
Feb 10	vs NOP	35%	112–122	L 84–93	✓correct	+1
Feb 8	vs DET	81%	126–111	L 122–128	✗missed	−21
Feb 4	at DEN	28%	103–112	L 103–112	✓correct	±0
Feb 2	at DEN	22%	103–116	L 108–120	✓correct	+1
Jan 31	vs MIL	45%	113–118	W 119–116	✗missed	+8
Jan 29	vs PHI	47%	111–115	W 130–104	✗missed	+30
Jan 28	vs CHI	39%	109–117	L 96–104	✓correct	±0
Jan 26	at SAS	32%	113–120	L 100–116	✓correct	−9
Jan 24	at HOU	30%	109–117	W 137–131	✗missed	+14
Jan 23	at OKC	18%	109–125	L 109–111	✓correct	+14
Jan 21	at LAL	27%	110–120	L 110–134	✓correct	−14
Jan 19	vs IND	37%	114–123	W 118–115	✗missed	+12
Jan 17	vs BKN	47%	112–116	W 105–103	✗missed	+6
Jan 14	vs PHX	39%	111–119	L 116–127	✓correct	−3
Jan 12	at MIN	21%	105–119	L 93–116	✓correct	−9
Jan 11	at OKC	17%	109–126	L 77–139	✓correct	−45
Jan 9	at NYK	16%	108–126	L 84–112	✓correct	−10
Jan 7	at BKN	27%	111–121	W 134–127	✗missed	+17
Jan 5	at DAL	32%	113–120	L 103–139	✓correct	−29
Jan 3	at DAL	32%	113–120	L 97–126	✓correct	−22
Jan 1	at PHX	24%	112–124	L 88–109	✓correct	−9
Dec 29	vs SAS	59%	120–118	W 134–128	✓correct	+4
Dec 28	vs SAS	67%	121–115	L 105–118	✗missed	−19
Dec 26	vs SAC	47%	115–119	W 130–113	✗missed	+21
Dec 23	at GSW	27%	111–121	L 106–126	✓correct	−10
Dec 21	vs WAS	53%	117–118	L 117–118	✓correct	±0
Dec 19	vs PHX	49%	112–115	W 109–104	✗missed	+8
Dec 17	vs GSW	53%	115–116	L 114–118	✓correct	−3
Dec 16	vs DAL	51%	111–113	L 120–131	✓correct	−9
Dec 14	vs UTA	59%	112–110	L 114–122	✗missed	−10
Dec 11	at LAC	25%	104–115	L 127–132	✓correct	+6
Dec 8	vs DAL	43%	109–115	L 112–125	✓correct	−7
Dec 6	at GSW	27%	109–119	L 106–110	✓correct	+6
Dec 2	at UTA	47%	112–111	L 113–118	✗missed	−6
Nov 30	at CLE	32%	108–115	W 103–95	✗missed	+15
Nov 27	at IND	30%	114–122	W 114–110	✗missed	+12
Nov 26	at MIL	27%	109–119	L 102–108	✓correct	+4
Nov 22	vs UTA	53%	113–114	W 121–105	✗missed	+17
Nov 21	at PHX	24%	102–114	L 107–120	✓correct	−1
Nov 19	vs OKC	49%	112–115	L 91–134	✓correct	−40
Nov 17	vs LAL	47%	110–114	L 95–107	✓correct	−8
Nov 15	vs CLE	51%	110–112	L 95–109	✓correct	−12
Nov 14	at UTA	32%	113–120	L 99–115	✓correct	−9
Nov 12	at LAL	35%	109–114	L 110–116	✓correct	−1
Nov 8	at SAC	34%	111–117	L 118–121	✓correct	+3
Nov 5	vs MEM	49%	112–115	L 100–112	✓correct	−9
Nov 3	vs MEM	49%	113–116	W 115–113	✗missed	+5
Nov 1	at DET	41%	114–116	W 110–101	✗missed	+11
Oct 30	at TOR	28%	107–116	W 99–91	✗missed	+17
Oct 29	at PHI	32%	106–113	L 98–126	✓correct	−21
Oct 27	vs ORL	47%	113–117	L 97–102	✓correct	−1
Oct 25	at LAC	32%	113–120	L 111–123	✓correct	−5
Apr 9	vs GSW	28%	118–127	L 101–157	✓correct	−47
Apr 8	at LAC	28%	115–124	L 125–136	✓correct	−2
Apr 6	at SAS	68%	123–116	L 127–129	✗missed	−9
Apr 4	at MEM	16%	112–128	L 109–119	✓correct	+6
Apr 2	at MIN	22%	114–126	W 107–105	✗missed	+14
Mar 31	vs SAC	20%	114–127	L 114–138	✓correct	−11
Mar 29	vs SAC	24%	116–127	L 80–120	✓correct	−29
Mar 27	vs NOP	20%	108–121	L 90–124	✓correct	−21
Mar 26	vs OKC	20%	111–124	L 112–118	✓correct	+7
Mar 24	vs CHI	28%	112–121	L 96–124	✓correct	−19
Mar 22	at UTA	28%	113–122	W 127–115	✗missed	+21
Mar 19	vs LAC	30%	117–125	L 102–117	✓correct	−7
Mar 17	vs BOS	32%	112–119	L 112–126	✓correct	−7
Mar 14	vs NYK	42%	117–120	L 107–123	✓correct	−13
Mar 12	at NOP	45%	113–115	L 110–127	✓correct	−15
Mar 10	at PHI	32%	108–115	L 119–120	✓correct	+6
Mar 8	at BOS	24%	110–121	L 93–115	✓correct	−11
Mar 6	at DET	68%	121–114	W 110–104	✓correct	−1
Mar 5	at ORL	37%	114–119	W 122–119	✗missed	+8
Mar 3	at ATL	30%	116–124	L 111–129	✓correct	−10
Mar 1	vs NOP	47%	118–119	L 110–121	✓correct	−10
Feb 28	at GSW	37%	116–121	L 105–123	✓correct	−13
Feb 26	vs HOU	76%	121–110	W 131–114	✓correct	+6
Feb 23	at SAC	32%	119–126	L 116–133	✓correct	−10
Feb 14	vs WAS	53%	116–115	L 101–126	✗missed	−26
Feb 13	vs LAL	47%	117–118	W 127–115	✗missed	+13
Feb 10	vs OKC	45%	119–121	L 129–138	✓correct	−7
Feb 8	vs GSW	45%	119–121	W 125–122	✗missed	+5
Feb 6	vs MIL	47%	119–120	L 108–127	✓correct	−18
Feb 4	at CHI	40%	116–120	L 121–129	✓correct	−4
Feb 3	at WAS	28%	114–123	W 124–116	✗missed	+17
Feb 1	at MEM	24%	112–123	W 122–112	✗missed	+21
Jan 30	vs ATL	53%	118–117	W 129–125	✓correct	+3
Jan 28	vs TOR	53%	119–118	L 105–123	✗missed	−19
Jan 25	vs UTA	47%	119–120	W 134–124	✗missed	+11
Jan 23	vs SAS	68%	120–113	W 147–127	✓correct	+13
Jan 22	vs LAL	42%	117–120	L 112–121	✓correct	−6
Jan 19	vs PHI	47%	119–120	L 95–105	✓correct	−9
Jan 17	at DEN	45%	111–113	L 113–122	✓correct	−7
Jan 15	vs DAL	37%	113–118	W 140–123	✗missed	+22
Jan 14	vs DAL	35%	112–118	W 136–119	✗missed	+23
Jan 12	vs CLE	28%	109–118	L 113–119	✓correct	+3
Jan 10	vs ORL	60%	119–115	L 106–109	✗missed	−7
Jan 8	at TOR	53%	113–112	L 105–117	✗missed	−13
Jan 6	at IND	47%	115–116	L 99–108	✓correct	−8
Jan 4	at MIN	53%	118–117	L 106–113	✗missed	−8
Jan 2	vs DET	74%	122–112	W 135–106	✓correct	+19
Dec 30	at GSW	40%	114–118	L 112–118	✓correct	−2
Dec 26	vs CHA	74%	123–113	W 124–113	✓correct	+1
Dec 23	at DEN	40%	113–117	L 107–120	✓correct	−9
Dec 21	at OKC	47%	117–118	L 98–101	✓correct	−2
Dec 19	at OKC	58%	120–117	L 121–123	✗missed	−5
Dec 17	at HOU	55%	116–114	W 107–95	✓correct	+10
Dec 16	at DAL	42%	112–115	L 110–130	✓correct	−17
Dec 14	at SAS	58%	117–114	W 128–112	✓correct	+13
Dec 12	vs MIN	42%	116–119	W 133–112	✗missed	+24
Dec 10	vs MIN	42%	115–118	W 124–118	✗missed	+9
Dec 8	vs DEN	40%	111–115	L 120–121	✓correct	+3
Dec 4	vs IND	47%	115–116	W 116–100	✗missed	+17
Dec 3	at UTA	24%	111–122	W 116–111	✗missed	+16
Nov 30	at LAL	40%	113–117	L 109–128	✓correct	−15
Nov 29	vs LAC	45%	109–111	L 112–118	✓correct	−4
Nov 27	at BKN	40%	108–112	L 97–111	✓correct	−10
Nov 25	at NYK	37%	110–115	W 132–129	✗missed	+8
Nov 23	at CLE	26%	103–113	L 96–114	✓correct	−8
Nov 21	at MIL	37%	106–111	L 111–119	✓correct	−3
Nov 19	vs UTA	37%	110–115	L 113–118	✓correct	±0
Nov 17	vs BKN	45%	106–108	L 107–109	✓correct	±0
Nov 15	vs SAS	68%	113–106	W 117–110	✓correct	±0
Nov 12	at DAL	35%	104–110	L 112–117	✓correct	+1
Nov 10	at NOP	37%	108–113	W 106–95	✗missed	+16
Nov 9	at CHA	42%	108–111	W 105–95	✗missed	+13
Nov 7	at MIA	32%	104–111	W 110–107	✗missed	+10
Nov 5	at PHX	26%	103–113	L 82–102	✓correct	−10
Nov 4	at PHX	20%	102–115	W 108–106	✗missed	+15
Nov 2	vs MEM	32%	106–113	L 106–111	✓correct	+2
Oct 28	vs HOU	53%	110–109	W 125–111	✓correct	+13
Oct 26	vs MIA	45%	103–105	L 98–119	✓correct	−19
Oct 24	vs DEN	30%	107–115	W 135–110	✗missed	+33
Oct 23	at LAL	24%	107–118	W 106–104	✗missed	+13
Oct 21	vs PHX	32%	102–109	W 113–111	✗missed	+9
Oct 19	at SAC	19%	102–116	W 115–108	✗missed	+21

Surprise games

All POR surprises

Across every graded season. The percentage is the pregame chance the forecast gave the team that won.

Most unexpected POR wins

19%POR beat SAC115–108Oct 19, 2022-23 · forecast SAC116–102 · missed margin by 21
19%POR beat MIL105–102Jan 4, 2024-25 · forecast MIL121–108 · missed margin by 16
20%POR beat PHX108–106Nov 4, 2022-23 · forecast PHX115–102 · missed margin by 15
21%POR beat HOU104–98Nov 23, 2024-25 · forecast HOU119–107 · missed margin by 18
22%POR beat MIN107–105Apr 2, 2022-23 · forecast MIN126–114 · missed margin by 14

Most unexpected POR losses

19%DET beat POR128–122Feb 8, 2023-24 · forecast POR126–111 · missed margin by 21
20%DAL beat POR100–93Mar 27, 2025-26 · forecast POR125–113 · missed margin by 19
24%MEM beat POR124–103Oct 29, 2026-27 · forecast POR122–112 · missed margin by 31
29%WAS beat POR115–111Jan 27, 2025-26 · forecast POR120–112 · missed margin by 12
31%NOP beat POR143–120Dec 11, 2025-26 · forecast POR121–114 · missed margin by 30

Largest margin misses

53%DEN beat POR157–103Feb 20, 2025-26 · forecast DEN118–117 · missed margin by 53
68%MIA beat POR142–82Mar 29, 2023-24 · forecast MIA108–101 · missed margin by 53
43%MEM beat POR134–89Nov 10, 2024-25 · forecast POR116–114 · missed margin by 47
72%GSW beat POR157–101Apr 9, 2022-23 · forecast GSW127–118 · missed margin by 47
71%POR beat CHA141–88Feb 22, 2024-25 · forecast POR113–105 · missed margin by 45

Definitions

Expected wins: The sum of the team's pregame win probabilities over the games in the sample (home: the stored home win probability; road: one minus it).
Wins vs expectation: Actual wins minus expected wins. It describes results relative to the forecasts, not why they differed.
Margin error: The team's actual margin minus its forecast margin, in points. Positive means the team did better than forecast.
Error variability: The sample standard deviation of margin errors. Higher means the forecasts for this team's games were less consistent.
Winner picked: The share of the team's games in which the forecast winner won, whichever team that was. Teams play different mixes of close and lopsided games, so this alone is not a fair measure of how hard a team is to forecast.
Average margin miss: The mean absolute margin error. This is the headline measure of how hard a team's games were for this model to forecast.
Average margin error: The mean signed margin error. Consistently positive means the model underrated the team in this sample; negative, overrated.
Brier score: The mean squared difference between the team's pregame win probability and the result (1 for a win, 0 for a loss). It rewards confident correct forecasts and penalises confident wrong ones.
Intervals and samples: Ranges are 90% bootstrap intervals (1,000 resamples of the team's games). Under 20 games no ranking is shown; 20 to 59 games is exploratory; 60 or more is roughly a full season.

More on how forecasts are made and tested: Methodology.

Upcoming

Recent results

Predictability

2026-27 (in progress)

2025-26

2024-25

2023-24

2022-23

2022-23 to 2026-27

Surprise games

Most unexpected POR wins

Most unexpected POR losses

Largest margin misses

Recent results the forecast got wrong

Definitions