Eastern Conference · 2026-27

Washington Wizards WAS

4–6

2026-27 record

1330

Elo rating

with the forecast of Nov 7

108.1

Offensive rating

last 10 games

112.9

Defensive rating

last 10, lower is better

99.6

Pace

possessions per game

Hover the ball to see a season.

Every graded WAS game, one dot each, oldest at the center. 242 of 337 forecasts picked the winner (colored dots).

Elo rating, recent games

Pregame Elo stored with each of WAS's last 82 forecasts. Dashed: 1500, the long-run average.

Elo rating recorded with each team's most recent forecast. Higher is stronger; 1500 is the long-run average. WAS ranks 27 of 30.

Upcoming

Schedule

Nov 9 7:00 PM ET

WAS Washington Wizards 4–6 –

@DET Detroit Pistons 6–3 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 11 7:00 PM ET

WAS Washington Wizards 4–6 –

@IND Indiana Pacers 3–7 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 12 7:00 PM ET

DET Detroit Pistons 6–3 –

@WAS Washington Wizards 4–6 –

Forecast coming Details

Recent results

Predictability

How closely the forecasts tracked WAS games. A team can be hard for this model to forecast whether it is good or bad: misses come from the model's limits, roster changes, missing information and ordinary game-to-game variation. Compare all 30 teams

2026-27 (in progress)

Small sample: 10 games. These figures are a running log, not a measurement, and no ranking is shown.

11.5 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 6.7 to 16.6

+0.3

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -8.0 to 7.9

15.6 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.7

60%

winner picked

10 games involving WAS

4 / 3.7

actual / expected wins

gap +0.3

0.215

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 10 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	WAS win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 7	at OKC	28%	107–115	L 75–114	✓correct	−31
Nov 6	at ATL	24%	110–120	L 132–139	✓correct	+3
Nov 4	vs ATL	63%	114–110	L 105–120	✗missed	−19
Nov 2	at ORL	39%	107–111	W 103–94	✗missed	+13
Oct 30	vs CHA	31%	113–120	W 95–79	✗missed	+23
Oct 28	at CLE	26%	112–121	L 111–121	✓correct	−1
Oct 26	at CHA	22%	112–123	L 103–110	✓correct	+4
Oct 24	at CHI	41%	120–123	W 124–120	✗missed	+7
Oct 23	vs TOR	36%	118–123	L 102–112	✓correct	−5
Oct 21	vs MIL	59%	124–121	W 128–116	✓correct	+9

2025-26

12.1 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.7 to 13.6; 21st smallest of 30

−2.1

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -4.9 to 0.5

14.8 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.4

77%

winner picked

82 games involving WAS

17 / 21.5

actual / expected wins

gap −4.5

0.163

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	WAS win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 12	at CLE	15%	111–126	L 117–130	✓correct	+2
Apr 10	vs MIA	19%	117–130	L 117–140	✓correct	−10
Apr 9	vs CHI	29%	116–124	L 108–119	✓correct	−3
Apr 7	vs CHI	31%	116–123	L 98–129	✓correct	−24
Apr 5	at BKN	56%	116–114	L 115–121	✗missed	−8
Apr 4	at MIA	22%	116–127	L 136–152	✓correct	−5
Apr 1	vs PHI	20%	115–127	L 131–153	✓correct	−10
Mar 30	at LAL	15%	109–124	L 101–120	✓correct	−4
Mar 29	at POR	17%	109–123	L 88–123	✓correct	−21
Mar 27	at GSW	24%	113–123	L 126–131	✓correct	+5
Mar 25	at UTA	44%	116–118	W 133–110	✗missed	+25
Mar 22	at NYK	10%	105–124	L 113–145	✓correct	−13
Mar 21	vs OKC	13%	108–125	L 111–132	✓correct	−4
Mar 19	vs DET	17%	111–125	L 95–117	✓correct	−8
Mar 17	vs DET	13%	109–126	L 117–130	✓correct	+4
Mar 16	vs GSW	36%	113–118	L 117–125	✓correct	−3
Mar 14	at BOS	20%	105–117	L 100–111	✓correct	+1
Mar 12	at ORL	19%	109–122	L 131–136	✓correct	+8
Mar 10	at MIA	13%	108–125	L 129–150	✓correct	−4
Mar 8	at NOP	29%	115–123	L 118–138	✓correct	−12
Mar 5	vs UTA	44%	116–118	L 112–122	✓correct	−8
Mar 3	at ORL	14%	106–122	L 109–126	✓correct	−1
Mar 2	vs HOU	24%	110–120	L 118–123	✓correct	+5
Feb 28	vs TOR	22%	111–122	L 125–134	✓correct	+2
Feb 26	at ATL	22%	112–123	L 96–126	✓correct	−19
Feb 24	at ATL	26%	113–122	L 98–119	✓correct	−12
Feb 22	vs CHA	27%	108–117	L 112–129	✓correct	−8
Feb 20	vs IND	39%	114–118	W 131–118	✗missed	+17
Feb 19	vs IND	39%	114–118	W 112–105	✗missed	+11
Feb 11	at CLE	14%	107–123	L 113–138	✓correct	−9
Feb 8	vs MIA	22%	112–123	L 101–132	✓correct	−20
Feb 7	at BKN	41%	108–111	L 113–127	✓correct	−11
Feb 5	at DET	8%	105–126	W 126–117	✗missed	+30
Feb 3	vs NYK	31%	108–115	L 101–132	✓correct	−24
Feb 1	vs SAC	39%	110–114	W 116–112	✗missed	+8
Jan 30	vs LAL	24%	109–119	L 111–142	✓correct	−21
Jan 29	vs MIL	47%	112–113	W 109–99	✗missed	+11
Jan 27	vs POR	29%	112–120	W 115–111	✗missed	+12
Jan 24	at CHA	14%	104–120	L 115–119	✓correct	+12
Jan 22	vs DEN	36%	110–115	L 97–107	✓correct	−5
Jan 19	vs LAC	39%	112–116	L 106–110	✓correct	±0
Jan 17	at DEN	19%	106–119	L 115–121	✓correct	+7
Jan 16	at SAC	36%	112–117	L 115–128	✓correct	−8
Jan 14	at LAC	22%	107–118	L 105–119	✓correct	−3
Jan 11	at PHX	19%	109–122	L 93–112	✓correct	−6
Jan 9	vs NOP	56%	118–116	L 107–128	✗missed	−23
Jan 7	at PHI	26%	114–123	L 110–131	✓correct	−12
Jan 6	vs ORL	29%	113–121	W 120–112	✗missed	+16
Jan 4	vs MIN	27%	113–122	L 115–141	✓correct	−17
Jan 2	vs BKN	56%	114–112	W 119–99	✓correct	+18
Dec 31	at MIL	26%	110–119	W 114–113	✗missed	+10
Dec 29	vs PHX	29%	112–120	L 101–115	✓correct	−6
Dec 28	vs MEM	27%	114–123	W 116–112	✗missed	+13
Dec 26	vs TOR	34%	110–116	W 138–117	✗missed	+27
Dec 23	at CHA	36%	112–117	L 109–126	✓correct	−12
Dec 21	vs SAS	14%	111–127	L 113–124	✓correct	+5
Dec 20	at MEM	15%	108–123	W 130–122	✗missed	+23
Dec 18	at SAS	14%	110–126	L 94–119	✓correct	−9
Dec 14	at IND	19%	109–122	W 108–89	✗missed	+32
Dec 12	vs CLE	19%	112–125	L 126–130	✓correct	+9
Dec 6	vs ATL	20%	113–125	L 116–131	✓correct	−3
Dec 4	vs BOS	27%	108–117	L 101–146	✓correct	−36
Dec 2	at PHI	26%	113–122	L 102–121	✓correct	−10
Dec 1	vs MIL	24%	110–120	W 129–126	✗missed	+13
Nov 28	at IND	29%	113–121	L 86–119	✓correct	−25
Nov 25	vs ATL	17%	112–126	W 132–113	✗missed	+33
Nov 22	at CHI	19%	111–124	L 120–121	✓correct	+12
Nov 21	at TOR	9%	106–126	L 110–140	✓correct	−10
Nov 19	at MIN	9%	106–126	L 109–120	✓correct	+9
Nov 16	vs BKN	47%	116–117	L 106–129	✓correct	−22
Nov 12	at HOU	9%	105–125	L 112–135	✓correct	−3
Nov 10	at DET	17%	109–123	L 135–137	✓correct	+12
Nov 8	vs DAL	44%	115–117	L 105–111	✓correct	−4
Nov 7	vs CLE	20%	114–126	L 115–148	✓correct	−21
Nov 5	at BOS	17%	107–121	L 107–136	✓correct	−15
Nov 3	at NYK	17%	108–122	L 102–119	✓correct	−3
Nov 1	vs ORL	42%	114–117	L 94–125	✓correct	−28
Oct 30	at OKC	17%	103–117	L 108–127	✓correct	−5
Oct 28	vs PHI	42%	114–117	L 134–139	✓correct	−2
Oct 26	vs CHA	61%	115–111	L 113–139	✗missed	−30
Oct 24	at DAL	34%	111–117	W 117–107	✗missed	+16
Oct 22	at MIL	22%	107–118	L 120–133	✓correct	−2

2024-25

Across 81 graded games, WAS finished an average of 4.7 points worse than the forecast margin (90% interval -6.8 to -2.4).

10.8 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.3 to 12.2; 14th smallest of 30

−4.7

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -6.8 to -2.4

12.9 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

79%

winner picked

81 games involving WAS

18 / 26.1

actual / expected wins

gap −8.1

0.168

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 81 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	WAS win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 13	at MIA	33%	107–113	W 119–118	✗missed	+7
Apr 11	at CHI	23%	115–126	L 89–119	✓correct	−19
Apr 9	vs PHI	44%	109–112	L 103–122	✓correct	−16
Apr 8	at IND	14%	110–127	L 98–104	✓correct	+11
Apr 6	at BOS	25%	108–118	L 90–124	✓correct	−24
Apr 3	vs ORL	27%	108–118	L 97–109	✓correct	−2
Apr 2	vs SAC	34%	114–121	W 116–111	✗missed	+12
Mar 31	vs MIA	36%	110–116	L 94–120	✓correct	−20
Mar 29	vs BKN	54%	115–114	L 112–115	✗missed	−4
Mar 27	vs IND	25%	112–123	L 109–162	✓correct	−42
Mar 26	at PHI	38%	116–120	W 119–114	✗missed	+9
Mar 24	vs TOR	49%	115–116	L 104–112	✓correct	−7
Mar 22	at NYK	27%	104–113	L 103–122	✓correct	−10
Mar 21	vs ORL	39%	110–115	L 105–120	✓correct	−10
Mar 19	at UTA	54%	116–114	L 112–128	✗missed	−18
Mar 17	at POR	36%	111–116	L 97–112	✓correct	−10
Mar 15	at DEN	19%	111–124	W 126–123	✗missed	+16
Mar 13	at DET	19%	110–123	W 129–125	✗missed	+17
Mar 11	at DET	21%	110–122	L 103–123	✓correct	−8
Mar 10	at TOR	43%	111–113	L 104–119	✓correct	−13
Mar 8	at TOR	46%	111–112	W 118–117	✗missed	+2
Mar 5	vs UTA	54%	117–116	W 125–122	✓correct	+2
Mar 3	at MIA	29%	105–113	L 90–106	✓correct	−8
Mar 1	at CHA	51%	113–112	W 113–100	✓correct	+12
Feb 26	vs POR	36%	111–117	L 121–129	✓correct	−2
Feb 24	vs BKN	41%	105–109	W 107–99	✗missed	+12
Feb 23	at ORL	29%	107–115	L 90–110	✓correct	−12
Feb 21	vs MIL	49%	119–120	L 101–104	✓correct	−2
Feb 12	vs IND	36%	116–122	L 130–134	✓correct	+2
Feb 10	vs SAS	39%	116–121	L 121–131	✓correct	−5
Feb 8	vs ATL	44%	115–118	L 111–125	✓correct	−11
Feb 7	vs CLE	34%	111–118	L 124–134	✓correct	−3
Feb 5	at BKN	29%	102–110	W 119–102	✗missed	+25
Feb 3	at CHA	41%	110–113	W 124–114	✗missed	+13
Feb 1	at MIN	29%	110–118	W 105–103	✗missed	+10
Jan 30	vs LAL	39%	110–115	L 96–134	✓correct	−33
Jan 29	vs TOR	41%	113–117	L 82–106	✓correct	−20
Jan 27	at DAL	18%	108–122	L 108–130	✓correct	−8
Jan 25	at PHX	21%	110–122	L 109–119	✓correct	+2
Jan 23	at LAC	16%	107–122	L 93–110	✓correct	−2
Jan 21	at LAL	31%	110–117	L 88–111	✓correct	−16
Jan 19	at SAC	12%	110–128	L 100–123	✓correct	−5
Jan 18	at GSW	36%	110–115	L 114–122	✓correct	−3
Jan 16	vs PHX	39%	114–119	L 123–130	✓correct	−2
Jan 13	vs MIN	44%	112–115	L 106–120	✓correct	−11
Jan 12	vs OKC	29%	110–119	L 95–136	✓correct	−32
Jan 10	at CHI	38%	115–119	L 105–138	✓correct	−29
Jan 8	at PHI	36%	112–117	L 103–109	✓correct	−1
Jan 7	vs HOU	34%	112–119	L 112–135	✓correct	−16
Jan 5	vs NOP	39%	113–118	L 98–110	✓correct	−7
Jan 3	at NOP	36%	114–119	L 120–132	✓correct	−7
Jan 1	vs CHI	39%	114–119	W 125–107	✗missed	+23
Dec 30	vs NYK	29%	112–121	L 106–126	✓correct	−11
Dec 28	vs NYK	32%	113–121	L 132–136	✓correct	+4
Dec 26	vs CHA	54%	116–115	W 113–110	✓correct	+2
Dec 23	at OKC	14%	110–127	L 105–123	✓correct	−1
Dec 21	at MIL	21%	109–121	L 101–112	✓correct	+1
Dec 19	vs CHA	49%	114–115	W 123–114	✗missed	+10
Dec 15	vs BOS	18%	108–123	L 98–112	✓correct	+1
Dec 13	at CLE	11%	108–127	L 105–115	✓correct	+9
Dec 8	vs MEM	21%	111–124	L 112–140	✓correct	−15
Dec 7	vs DEN	25%	114–125	W 122–113	✗missed	+20
Dec 5	vs DAL	18%	111–126	L 101–137	✓correct	−21
Dec 3	at CLE	14%	112–129	L 87–118	✓correct	−14
Nov 30	at MIL	19%	108–121	L 114–124	✓correct	+3
Nov 27	vs LAC	34%	112–119	L 96–121	✓correct	−18
Nov 26	vs CHI	36%	117–123	L 108–127	✓correct	−13
Nov 24	at IND	19%	110–123	L 103–115	✓correct	+1
Nov 22	vs BOS	29%	113–122	L 96–108	✓correct	−3
Nov 18	at NYK	14%	107–124	L 106–134	✓correct	−11
Nov 17	vs DET	44%	112–115	L 104–124	✓correct	−17
Nov 15	at ATL	31%	115–122	L 117–129	✓correct	−5
Nov 13	at SAS	23%	108–119	L 130–139	✓correct	+2
Nov 11	at HOU	16%	106–121	L 92–107	✓correct	±0
Nov 10	at ORL	29%	112–120	L 94–121	✓correct	−19
Nov 8	at MEM	31%	115–122	L 104–128	✓correct	−17
Nov 4	vs GSW	27%	111–121	L 112–125	✓correct	−3
Oct 30	vs ATL	49%	118–119	W 133–120	✗missed	+14
Oct 28	at ATL	41%	117–120	W 121–119	✗missed	+5
Oct 26	vs CLE	36%	111–117	L 116–135	✓correct	−13
Oct 24	vs BOS	32%	108–116	L 102–122	✓correct	−12

2023-24

Across 82 graded games, WAS finished an average of 2.6 points worse than the forecast margin (90% interval -4.9 to -0.5).

9.9 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 8.4 to 11.4; 2nd smallest of 30

−2.6

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -4.9 to -0.5

12.6 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.3

79%

winner picked

82 games involving WAS

15 / 30.8

actual / expected wins

gap −15.8

0.192

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	WAS win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 14	at BOS	27%	108–118	L 122–132	✓correct	±0
Apr 12	vs CHI	51%	111–113	L 127–129	✓correct	±0
Apr 9	at MIN	14%	101–121	L 121–130	✓correct	+11
Apr 7	at TOR	28%	112–121	L 122–130	✓correct	+1
Apr 5	vs POR	63%	113–109	L 102–108	✗missed	−10
Apr 3	vs LAL	33%	112–123	L 120–125	✓correct	+6
Apr 2	vs MIL	37%	109–118	W 117–113	✗missed	+13
Mar 31	vs MIA	37%	107–116	L 107–119	✓correct	−3
Mar 29	vs DET	68%	116–109	L 87–96	✗missed	−16
Mar 27	vs BKN	47%	108–112	L 119–122	✓correct	+1
Mar 25	at CHI	18%	110–126	W 107–105	✗missed	+18
Mar 23	vs TOR	63%	119–115	W 112–109	✓correct	−1
Mar 21	vs SAC	37%	113–122	W 109–102	✗missed	+16
Mar 19	vs HOU	31%	112–124	L 114–137	✓correct	−11
Mar 17	vs BOS	35%	108–118	L 104–130	✓correct	−16
Mar 16	at CHI	27%	109–119	L 98–127	✓correct	−19
Mar 14	at HOU	28%	110–119	L 119–135	✓correct	−7
Mar 12	at MEM	39%	110–113	L 97–109	✓correct	−9
Mar 10	at MIA	17%	106–123	W 110–108	✗missed	+19
Mar 8	vs CHA	59%	115–113	W 112–100	✓correct	+10
Mar 6	vs ORL	43%	112–118	L 109–119	✓correct	−4
Mar 4	at UTA	37%	114–118	L 115–127	✓correct	−8
Mar 1	at LAC	19%	108–123	L 115–140	✓correct	−10
Feb 29	at LAL	30%	112–120	L 131–134	✓correct	+5
Feb 27	vs GSW	35%	111–121	L 112–123	✓correct	−1
Feb 25	vs CLE	37%	114–123	L 105–114	✓correct	±0
Feb 23	at OKC	17%	108–125	L 106–147	✓correct	−24
Feb 22	at DEN	24%	108–120	L 110–130	✓correct	−8
Feb 14	at NOP	18%	105–121	L 126–133	✓correct	+9
Feb 12	at DAL	30%	114–122	L 104–112	✓correct	±0
Feb 10	vs PHI	53%	117–118	L 113–119	✓correct	−5
Feb 9	at BOS	17%	109–126	L 129–133	✓correct	+13
Feb 7	vs CLE	41%	113–120	L 106–114	✓correct	−1
Feb 4	vs PHX	35%	112–122	L 112–140	✓correct	−18
Feb 2	vs MIA	43%	111–117	L 102–110	✓correct	−2
Jan 31	vs LAC	41%	110–117	L 109–125	✓correct	−9
Jan 29	at SAS	39%	117–120	W 118–113	✗missed	+8
Jan 27	at DET	37%	117–121	W 118–104	✗missed	+18
Jan 25	vs UTA	39%	114–122	L 108–123	✓correct	−7
Jan 24	vs MIN	43%	112–118	L 107–118	✓correct	−5
Jan 21	vs DEN	37%	111–120	L 104–113	✓correct	±0
Jan 20	vs SAS	65%	120–115	L 127–131	✗missed	−9
Jan 18	at NYK	21%	108–122	L 109–113	✓correct	+10
Jan 15	vs DET	75%	125–114	L 117–129	✗missed	−23
Jan 13	at ATL	30%	113–121	W 127–99	✗missed	+36
Jan 10	at IND	24%	111–123	L 104–112	✓correct	+4
Jan 8	vs OKC	37%	114–123	L 128–136	✓correct	+1
Jan 6	vs NYK	39%	117–125	L 105–121	✓correct	−8
Jan 5	at CLE	27%	112–122	L 90–114	✓correct	−14
Jan 3	at CLE	27%	113–123	L 101–140	✓correct	−29
Dec 31	vs ATL	43%	116–122	L 126–130	✓correct	+2
Dec 29	vs BKN	41%	116–123	W 110–104	✗missed	+13
Dec 27	vs TOR	47%	116–120	L 102–132	✓correct	−26
Dec 26	vs ORL	43%	117–123	L 119–127	✓correct	−2
Dec 22	at GSW	30%	114–122	L 118–129	✓correct	−3
Dec 21	at POR	47%	118–117	W 118–117	✓correct	±0
Dec 18	at SAC	30%	113–121	L 131–143	✓correct	−4
Dec 17	at PHX	28%	112–121	L 108–112	✓correct	+5
Dec 15	vs IND	31%	112–124	W 137–123	✗missed	+26
Dec 13	vs NOP	39%	115–123	L 122–142	✓correct	−12
Dec 11	at PHI	18%	110–126	L 101–146	✓correct	−29
Dec 8	at BKN	28%	113–122	L 97–124	✓correct	−18
Dec 6	vs PHI	47%	117–121	L 126–131	✓correct	−1
Dec 1	at ORL	24%	109–121	L 125–130	✓correct	+7
Nov 29	at ORL	24%	109–121	L 120–139	✓correct	−7
Nov 27	at DET	43%	116–117	W 126–107	✗missed	+20
Nov 25	vs ATL	41%	115–122	L 108–136	✓correct	−21
Nov 24	at MIL	34%	115–121	L 128–131	✓correct	+3
Nov 22	at CHA	43%	118–119	L 114–117	✓correct	−2
Nov 20	vs MIL	43%	115–121	L 129–142	✓correct	−7
Nov 17	vs NYK	49%	115–118	L 99–120	✓correct	−18
Nov 15	vs DAL	43%	112–118	L 117–130	✓correct	−7
Nov 13	at TOR	30%	110–118	L 107–111	✓correct	+4
Nov 12	at BKN	43%	117–118	L 94–102	✓correct	−7
Nov 10	vs CHA	61%	116–113	L 117–124	✗missed	−10
Nov 8	at CHA	55%	116–111	W 132–116	✓correct	+11
Nov 6	at PHI	28%	109–118	L 128–146	✓correct	−9
Nov 3	at MIA	37%	112–116	L 114–121	✓correct	−3
Nov 1	at ATL	43%	115–116	L 121–130	✓correct	−8
Oct 30	vs BOS	51%	114–116	L 107–126	✓correct	−17
Oct 28	vs MEM	53%	117–118	W 113–106	✗missed	+8
Oct 25	at IND	51%	121–118	L 120–143	✗missed	−26

2022-23

10.1 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 8.6 to 11.5; 13th smallest of 30

+0.0

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.3 to 2.4

12.9 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 10.3

54%

winner picked

82 games involving WAS

35 / 38.5

actual / expected wins

gap −3.5

0.245

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	WAS win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 9	vs HOU	65%	119–113	L 109–114	✗missed	−11
Apr 7	vs MIA	32%	115–122	W 114–108	✗missed	+13
Apr 5	at ATL	35%	118–124	L 116–134	✓correct	−12
Apr 4	vs MIL	35%	117–123	L 128–140	✓correct	−6
Apr 2	at NYK	28%	109–118	L 109–118	✓correct	±0
Mar 31	vs ORL	37%	112–117	L 109–116	✓correct	−2
Mar 28	vs BOS	30%	113–121	W 130–111	✗missed	+27
Mar 26	at TOR	24%	107–118	L 104–114	✓correct	+1
Mar 24	vs SAS	60%	119–115	W 136–124	✓correct	+8
Mar 22	vs DEN	35%	111–117	L 104–118	✓correct	−8
Mar 21	at ORL	53%	117–116	L 112–122	✗missed	−11
Mar 18	vs SAC	53%	115–114	L 118–132	✗missed	−15
Mar 17	at CLE	28%	106–115	L 94–117	✓correct	−14
Mar 14	vs DET	78%	119–107	W 117–97	✓correct	+8
Mar 12	at PHI	32%	104–111	L 93–112	✓correct	−12
Mar 10	vs ATL	53%	119–118	L 107–114	✗missed	−8
Mar 8	vs ATL	47%	117–118	L 120–122	✓correct	−1
Mar 7	at DET	72%	116–107	W 119–117	✓correct	−7
Mar 5	vs MIL	55%	115–113	L 111–117	✗missed	−8
Mar 4	vs TOR	53%	114–113	L 109–116	✗missed	−8
Mar 2	vs TOR	53%	114–113	W 119–108	✓correct	+10
Feb 28	at ATL	40%	115–119	W 119–116	✗missed	+7
Feb 26	at CHI	42%	112–115	L 82–102	✓correct	−17
Feb 24	vs NYK	60%	116–112	L 109–115	✗missed	−10
Feb 16	at MIN	45%	117–119	W 114–106	✗missed	+10
Feb 14	at POR	47%	115–116	W 126–101	✗missed	+26
Feb 13	at GSW	32%	115–122	L 126–135	✓correct	−2
Feb 11	vs IND	74%	122–112	W 127–113	✓correct	+4
Feb 8	vs CHA	78%	121–109	W 118–104	✓correct	+2
Feb 6	vs CLE	55%	112–110	L 91–114	✗missed	−25
Feb 4	at BKN	45%	115–117	L 123–125	✓correct	±0
Feb 3	vs POR	72%	123–114	L 116–124	✗missed	−17
Jan 30	at SAS	68%	125–118	W 127–106	✓correct	+14
Jan 28	at NOP	47%	115–116	W 113–103	✗missed	+11
Jan 25	at HOU	63%	122–117	W 108–103	✓correct	±0
Jan 24	at DAL	53%	114–113	W 127–126	✓correct	±0
Jan 21	vs ORL	60%	119–115	W 138–118	✓correct	+16
Jan 18	at NYK	40%	110–114	W 116–105	✗missed	+15
Jan 16	vs GSW	53%	114–113	L 118–127	✗missed	−10
Jan 13	vs NYK	42%	111–114	L 108–112	✓correct	−1
Jan 11	vs CHI	42%	115–118	W 100–97	✗missed	+6
Jan 9	vs NOP	45%	112–114	L 112–132	✓correct	−18
Jan 6	at OKC	63%	117–112	L 110–127	✗missed	−22
Jan 3	at MIL	47%	113–114	L 113–123	✓correct	−9
Jan 1	at MIL	40%	111–115	W 118–95	✗missed	+27
Dec 30	at ORL	74%	121–111	W 119–100	✓correct	+9
Dec 28	vs PHX	42%	113–116	W 127–102	✗missed	+28
Dec 27	vs PHI	28%	110–119	W 116–111	✗missed	+14
Dec 23	at SAC	35%	113–119	W 125–111	✗missed	+20
Dec 22	at UTA	32%	113–120	L 112–120	✓correct	−1
Dec 20	at PHX	35%	114–120	W 113–110	✗missed	+9
Dec 18	at LAL	37%	115–120	L 117–119	✓correct	+3
Dec 17	at LAC	45%	114–116	L 93–102	✓correct	−7
Dec 14	at DEN	24%	112–123	L 128–141	✓correct	−2
Dec 12	vs BKN	35%	113–119	L 100–112	✓correct	−6
Dec 10	vs LAC	47%	115–116	L 107–114	✓correct	−6
Dec 9	at IND	47%	115–116	L 111–121	✓correct	−9
Dec 7	at CHI	47%	116–117	L 111–115	✓correct	−3
Dec 4	vs LAL	47%	116–117	L 119–130	✓correct	−10
Dec 2	at CHA	70%	117–109	L 116–117	✗missed	−9
Nov 30	at BKN	45%	110–112	L 107–113	✓correct	−4
Nov 28	vs MIN	40%	111–115	W 142–127	✗missed	+19
Nov 27	at BOS	28%	109–118	L 121–130	✓correct	±0
Nov 25	at MIA	58%	111–108	L 107–110	✗missed	−6
Nov 23	at MIA	55%	110–108	L 105–113	✗missed	−10
Nov 20	vs CHA	65%	110–104	W 106–102	✓correct	−2
Nov 18	vs MIA	47%	108–109	W 107–106	✗missed	+2
Nov 16	vs OKC	60%	113–109	L 120–121	✗missed	−5
Nov 13	vs MEM	40%	109–113	W 102–92	✗missed	+14
Nov 12	vs UTA	30%	106–114	W 121–112	✗missed	+17
Nov 10	vs DAL	26%	102–112	W 113–105	✗missed	+18
Nov 7	at CHA	32%	106–113	W 108–100	✗missed	+15
Nov 6	at MEM	24%	107–118	L 97–103	✓correct	+5
Nov 4	vs BKN	55%	112–110	L 86–128	✗missed	−44
Nov 2	at PHI	42%	103–106	W 121–111	✗missed	+13
Oct 31	vs PHI	37%	104–109	L 111–118	✓correct	−2
Oct 30	at BOS	30%	106–114	L 94–112	✓correct	−10
Oct 28	vs IND	65%	119–113	L 117–127	✗missed	−16
Oct 25	vs DET	68%	116–109	W 120–99	✓correct	+14
Oct 23	at CLE	40%	110–114	L 107–117	✓correct	−6
Oct 21	vs CHI	47%	113–114	W 102–100	✗missed	+3
Oct 19	at IND	55%	116–114	W 114–107	✓correct	+5

2022-23 to 2026-27

10.7 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.1 to 11.5; 9th smallest of 30

−2.3

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -3.5 to -1.2

13.4 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

72%

winner picked

337 games involving WAS

89 / 120.5

actual / expected wins

gap −31.5

0.193

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 337 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	WAS win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 7	at OKC	28%	107–115	L 75–114	✓correct	−31
Nov 6	at ATL	24%	110–120	L 132–139	✓correct	+3
Nov 4	vs ATL	63%	114–110	L 105–120	✗missed	−19
Nov 2	at ORL	39%	107–111	W 103–94	✗missed	+13
Oct 30	vs CHA	31%	113–120	W 95–79	✗missed	+23
Oct 28	at CLE	26%	112–121	L 111–121	✓correct	−1
Oct 26	at CHA	22%	112–123	L 103–110	✓correct	+4
Oct 24	at CHI	41%	120–123	W 124–120	✗missed	+7
Oct 23	vs TOR	36%	118–123	L 102–112	✓correct	−5
Oct 21	vs MIL	59%	124–121	W 128–116	✓correct	+9
Apr 12	at CLE	15%	111–126	L 117–130	✓correct	+2
Apr 10	vs MIA	19%	117–130	L 117–140	✓correct	−10
Apr 9	vs CHI	29%	116–124	L 108–119	✓correct	−3
Apr 7	vs CHI	31%	116–123	L 98–129	✓correct	−24
Apr 5	at BKN	56%	116–114	L 115–121	✗missed	−8
Apr 4	at MIA	22%	116–127	L 136–152	✓correct	−5
Apr 1	vs PHI	20%	115–127	L 131–153	✓correct	−10
Mar 30	at LAL	15%	109–124	L 101–120	✓correct	−4
Mar 29	at POR	17%	109–123	L 88–123	✓correct	−21
Mar 27	at GSW	24%	113–123	L 126–131	✓correct	+5
Mar 25	at UTA	44%	116–118	W 133–110	✗missed	+25
Mar 22	at NYK	10%	105–124	L 113–145	✓correct	−13
Mar 21	vs OKC	13%	108–125	L 111–132	✓correct	−4
Mar 19	vs DET	17%	111–125	L 95–117	✓correct	−8
Mar 17	vs DET	13%	109–126	L 117–130	✓correct	+4
Mar 16	vs GSW	36%	113–118	L 117–125	✓correct	−3
Mar 14	at BOS	20%	105–117	L 100–111	✓correct	+1
Mar 12	at ORL	19%	109–122	L 131–136	✓correct	+8
Mar 10	at MIA	13%	108–125	L 129–150	✓correct	−4
Mar 8	at NOP	29%	115–123	L 118–138	✓correct	−12
Mar 5	vs UTA	44%	116–118	L 112–122	✓correct	−8
Mar 3	at ORL	14%	106–122	L 109–126	✓correct	−1
Mar 2	vs HOU	24%	110–120	L 118–123	✓correct	+5
Feb 28	vs TOR	22%	111–122	L 125–134	✓correct	+2
Feb 26	at ATL	22%	112–123	L 96–126	✓correct	−19
Feb 24	at ATL	26%	113–122	L 98–119	✓correct	−12
Feb 22	vs CHA	27%	108–117	L 112–129	✓correct	−8
Feb 20	vs IND	39%	114–118	W 131–118	✗missed	+17
Feb 19	vs IND	39%	114–118	W 112–105	✗missed	+11
Feb 11	at CLE	14%	107–123	L 113–138	✓correct	−9
Feb 8	vs MIA	22%	112–123	L 101–132	✓correct	−20
Feb 7	at BKN	41%	108–111	L 113–127	✓correct	−11
Feb 5	at DET	8%	105–126	W 126–117	✗missed	+30
Feb 3	vs NYK	31%	108–115	L 101–132	✓correct	−24
Feb 1	vs SAC	39%	110–114	W 116–112	✗missed	+8
Jan 30	vs LAL	24%	109–119	L 111–142	✓correct	−21
Jan 29	vs MIL	47%	112–113	W 109–99	✗missed	+11
Jan 27	vs POR	29%	112–120	W 115–111	✗missed	+12
Jan 24	at CHA	14%	104–120	L 115–119	✓correct	+12
Jan 22	vs DEN	36%	110–115	L 97–107	✓correct	−5
Jan 19	vs LAC	39%	112–116	L 106–110	✓correct	±0
Jan 17	at DEN	19%	106–119	L 115–121	✓correct	+7
Jan 16	at SAC	36%	112–117	L 115–128	✓correct	−8
Jan 14	at LAC	22%	107–118	L 105–119	✓correct	−3
Jan 11	at PHX	19%	109–122	L 93–112	✓correct	−6
Jan 9	vs NOP	56%	118–116	L 107–128	✗missed	−23
Jan 7	at PHI	26%	114–123	L 110–131	✓correct	−12
Jan 6	vs ORL	29%	113–121	W 120–112	✗missed	+16
Jan 4	vs MIN	27%	113–122	L 115–141	✓correct	−17
Jan 2	vs BKN	56%	114–112	W 119–99	✓correct	+18
Dec 31	at MIL	26%	110–119	W 114–113	✗missed	+10
Dec 29	vs PHX	29%	112–120	L 101–115	✓correct	−6
Dec 28	vs MEM	27%	114–123	W 116–112	✗missed	+13
Dec 26	vs TOR	34%	110–116	W 138–117	✗missed	+27
Dec 23	at CHA	36%	112–117	L 109–126	✓correct	−12
Dec 21	vs SAS	14%	111–127	L 113–124	✓correct	+5
Dec 20	at MEM	15%	108–123	W 130–122	✗missed	+23
Dec 18	at SAS	14%	110–126	L 94–119	✓correct	−9
Dec 14	at IND	19%	109–122	W 108–89	✗missed	+32
Dec 12	vs CLE	19%	112–125	L 126–130	✓correct	+9
Dec 6	vs ATL	20%	113–125	L 116–131	✓correct	−3
Dec 4	vs BOS	27%	108–117	L 101–146	✓correct	−36
Dec 2	at PHI	26%	113–122	L 102–121	✓correct	−10
Dec 1	vs MIL	24%	110–120	W 129–126	✗missed	+13
Nov 28	at IND	29%	113–121	L 86–119	✓correct	−25
Nov 25	vs ATL	17%	112–126	W 132–113	✗missed	+33
Nov 22	at CHI	19%	111–124	L 120–121	✓correct	+12
Nov 21	at TOR	9%	106–126	L 110–140	✓correct	−10
Nov 19	at MIN	9%	106–126	L 109–120	✓correct	+9
Nov 16	vs BKN	47%	116–117	L 106–129	✓correct	−22
Nov 12	at HOU	9%	105–125	L 112–135	✓correct	−3
Nov 10	at DET	17%	109–123	L 135–137	✓correct	+12
Nov 8	vs DAL	44%	115–117	L 105–111	✓correct	−4
Nov 7	vs CLE	20%	114–126	L 115–148	✓correct	−21
Nov 5	at BOS	17%	107–121	L 107–136	✓correct	−15
Nov 3	at NYK	17%	108–122	L 102–119	✓correct	−3
Nov 1	vs ORL	42%	114–117	L 94–125	✓correct	−28
Oct 30	at OKC	17%	103–117	L 108–127	✓correct	−5
Oct 28	vs PHI	42%	114–117	L 134–139	✓correct	−2
Oct 26	vs CHA	61%	115–111	L 113–139	✗missed	−30
Oct 24	at DAL	34%	111–117	W 117–107	✗missed	+16
Oct 22	at MIL	22%	107–118	L 120–133	✓correct	−2
Apr 13	at MIA	33%	107–113	W 119–118	✗missed	+7
Apr 11	at CHI	23%	115–126	L 89–119	✓correct	−19
Apr 9	vs PHI	44%	109–112	L 103–122	✓correct	−16
Apr 8	at IND	14%	110–127	L 98–104	✓correct	+11
Apr 6	at BOS	25%	108–118	L 90–124	✓correct	−24
Apr 3	vs ORL	27%	108–118	L 97–109	✓correct	−2
Apr 2	vs SAC	34%	114–121	W 116–111	✗missed	+12
Mar 31	vs MIA	36%	110–116	L 94–120	✓correct	−20
Mar 29	vs BKN	54%	115–114	L 112–115	✗missed	−4
Mar 27	vs IND	25%	112–123	L 109–162	✓correct	−42
Mar 26	at PHI	38%	116–120	W 119–114	✗missed	+9
Mar 24	vs TOR	49%	115–116	L 104–112	✓correct	−7
Mar 22	at NYK	27%	104–113	L 103–122	✓correct	−10
Mar 21	vs ORL	39%	110–115	L 105–120	✓correct	−10
Mar 19	at UTA	54%	116–114	L 112–128	✗missed	−18
Mar 17	at POR	36%	111–116	L 97–112	✓correct	−10
Mar 15	at DEN	19%	111–124	W 126–123	✗missed	+16
Mar 13	at DET	19%	110–123	W 129–125	✗missed	+17
Mar 11	at DET	21%	110–122	L 103–123	✓correct	−8
Mar 10	at TOR	43%	111–113	L 104–119	✓correct	−13
Mar 8	at TOR	46%	111–112	W 118–117	✗missed	+2
Mar 5	vs UTA	54%	117–116	W 125–122	✓correct	+2
Mar 3	at MIA	29%	105–113	L 90–106	✓correct	−8
Mar 1	at CHA	51%	113–112	W 113–100	✓correct	+12
Feb 26	vs POR	36%	111–117	L 121–129	✓correct	−2
Feb 24	vs BKN	41%	105–109	W 107–99	✗missed	+12
Feb 23	at ORL	29%	107–115	L 90–110	✓correct	−12
Feb 21	vs MIL	49%	119–120	L 101–104	✓correct	−2
Feb 12	vs IND	36%	116–122	L 130–134	✓correct	+2
Feb 10	vs SAS	39%	116–121	L 121–131	✓correct	−5
Feb 8	vs ATL	44%	115–118	L 111–125	✓correct	−11
Feb 7	vs CLE	34%	111–118	L 124–134	✓correct	−3
Feb 5	at BKN	29%	102–110	W 119–102	✗missed	+25
Feb 3	at CHA	41%	110–113	W 124–114	✗missed	+13
Feb 1	at MIN	29%	110–118	W 105–103	✗missed	+10
Jan 30	vs LAL	39%	110–115	L 96–134	✓correct	−33
Jan 29	vs TOR	41%	113–117	L 82–106	✓correct	−20
Jan 27	at DAL	18%	108–122	L 108–130	✓correct	−8
Jan 25	at PHX	21%	110–122	L 109–119	✓correct	+2
Jan 23	at LAC	16%	107–122	L 93–110	✓correct	−2
Jan 21	at LAL	31%	110–117	L 88–111	✓correct	−16
Jan 19	at SAC	12%	110–128	L 100–123	✓correct	−5
Jan 18	at GSW	36%	110–115	L 114–122	✓correct	−3
Jan 16	vs PHX	39%	114–119	L 123–130	✓correct	−2
Jan 13	vs MIN	44%	112–115	L 106–120	✓correct	−11
Jan 12	vs OKC	29%	110–119	L 95–136	✓correct	−32
Jan 10	at CHI	38%	115–119	L 105–138	✓correct	−29
Jan 8	at PHI	36%	112–117	L 103–109	✓correct	−1
Jan 7	vs HOU	34%	112–119	L 112–135	✓correct	−16
Jan 5	vs NOP	39%	113–118	L 98–110	✓correct	−7
Jan 3	at NOP	36%	114–119	L 120–132	✓correct	−7
Jan 1	vs CHI	39%	114–119	W 125–107	✗missed	+23
Dec 30	vs NYK	29%	112–121	L 106–126	✓correct	−11
Dec 28	vs NYK	32%	113–121	L 132–136	✓correct	+4
Dec 26	vs CHA	54%	116–115	W 113–110	✓correct	+2
Dec 23	at OKC	14%	110–127	L 105–123	✓correct	−1
Dec 21	at MIL	21%	109–121	L 101–112	✓correct	+1
Dec 19	vs CHA	49%	114–115	W 123–114	✗missed	+10
Dec 15	vs BOS	18%	108–123	L 98–112	✓correct	+1
Dec 13	at CLE	11%	108–127	L 105–115	✓correct	+9
Dec 8	vs MEM	21%	111–124	L 112–140	✓correct	−15
Dec 7	vs DEN	25%	114–125	W 122–113	✗missed	+20
Dec 5	vs DAL	18%	111–126	L 101–137	✓correct	−21
Dec 3	at CLE	14%	112–129	L 87–118	✓correct	−14
Nov 30	at MIL	19%	108–121	L 114–124	✓correct	+3
Nov 27	vs LAC	34%	112–119	L 96–121	✓correct	−18
Nov 26	vs CHI	36%	117–123	L 108–127	✓correct	−13
Nov 24	at IND	19%	110–123	L 103–115	✓correct	+1
Nov 22	vs BOS	29%	113–122	L 96–108	✓correct	−3
Nov 18	at NYK	14%	107–124	L 106–134	✓correct	−11
Nov 17	vs DET	44%	112–115	L 104–124	✓correct	−17
Nov 15	at ATL	31%	115–122	L 117–129	✓correct	−5
Nov 13	at SAS	23%	108–119	L 130–139	✓correct	+2
Nov 11	at HOU	16%	106–121	L 92–107	✓correct	±0
Nov 10	at ORL	29%	112–120	L 94–121	✓correct	−19
Nov 8	at MEM	31%	115–122	L 104–128	✓correct	−17
Nov 4	vs GSW	27%	111–121	L 112–125	✓correct	−3
Oct 30	vs ATL	49%	118–119	W 133–120	✗missed	+14
Oct 28	at ATL	41%	117–120	W 121–119	✗missed	+5
Oct 26	vs CLE	36%	111–117	L 116–135	✓correct	−13
Oct 24	vs BOS	32%	108–116	L 102–122	✓correct	−12
Apr 14	at BOS	27%	108–118	L 122–132	✓correct	±0
Apr 12	vs CHI	51%	111–113	L 127–129	✓correct	±0
Apr 9	at MIN	14%	101–121	L 121–130	✓correct	+11
Apr 7	at TOR	28%	112–121	L 122–130	✓correct	+1
Apr 5	vs POR	63%	113–109	L 102–108	✗missed	−10
Apr 3	vs LAL	33%	112–123	L 120–125	✓correct	+6
Apr 2	vs MIL	37%	109–118	W 117–113	✗missed	+13
Mar 31	vs MIA	37%	107–116	L 107–119	✓correct	−3
Mar 29	vs DET	68%	116–109	L 87–96	✗missed	−16
Mar 27	vs BKN	47%	108–112	L 119–122	✓correct	+1
Mar 25	at CHI	18%	110–126	W 107–105	✗missed	+18
Mar 23	vs TOR	63%	119–115	W 112–109	✓correct	−1
Mar 21	vs SAC	37%	113–122	W 109–102	✗missed	+16
Mar 19	vs HOU	31%	112–124	L 114–137	✓correct	−11
Mar 17	vs BOS	35%	108–118	L 104–130	✓correct	−16
Mar 16	at CHI	27%	109–119	L 98–127	✓correct	−19
Mar 14	at HOU	28%	110–119	L 119–135	✓correct	−7
Mar 12	at MEM	39%	110–113	L 97–109	✓correct	−9
Mar 10	at MIA	17%	106–123	W 110–108	✗missed	+19
Mar 8	vs CHA	59%	115–113	W 112–100	✓correct	+10
Mar 6	vs ORL	43%	112–118	L 109–119	✓correct	−4
Mar 4	at UTA	37%	114–118	L 115–127	✓correct	−8
Mar 1	at LAC	19%	108–123	L 115–140	✓correct	−10
Feb 29	at LAL	30%	112–120	L 131–134	✓correct	+5
Feb 27	vs GSW	35%	111–121	L 112–123	✓correct	−1
Feb 25	vs CLE	37%	114–123	L 105–114	✓correct	±0
Feb 23	at OKC	17%	108–125	L 106–147	✓correct	−24
Feb 22	at DEN	24%	108–120	L 110–130	✓correct	−8
Feb 14	at NOP	18%	105–121	L 126–133	✓correct	+9
Feb 12	at DAL	30%	114–122	L 104–112	✓correct	±0
Feb 10	vs PHI	53%	117–118	L 113–119	✓correct	−5
Feb 9	at BOS	17%	109–126	L 129–133	✓correct	+13
Feb 7	vs CLE	41%	113–120	L 106–114	✓correct	−1
Feb 4	vs PHX	35%	112–122	L 112–140	✓correct	−18
Feb 2	vs MIA	43%	111–117	L 102–110	✓correct	−2
Jan 31	vs LAC	41%	110–117	L 109–125	✓correct	−9
Jan 29	at SAS	39%	117–120	W 118–113	✗missed	+8
Jan 27	at DET	37%	117–121	W 118–104	✗missed	+18
Jan 25	vs UTA	39%	114–122	L 108–123	✓correct	−7
Jan 24	vs MIN	43%	112–118	L 107–118	✓correct	−5
Jan 21	vs DEN	37%	111–120	L 104–113	✓correct	±0
Jan 20	vs SAS	65%	120–115	L 127–131	✗missed	−9
Jan 18	at NYK	21%	108–122	L 109–113	✓correct	+10
Jan 15	vs DET	75%	125–114	L 117–129	✗missed	−23
Jan 13	at ATL	30%	113–121	W 127–99	✗missed	+36
Jan 10	at IND	24%	111–123	L 104–112	✓correct	+4
Jan 8	vs OKC	37%	114–123	L 128–136	✓correct	+1
Jan 6	vs NYK	39%	117–125	L 105–121	✓correct	−8
Jan 5	at CLE	27%	112–122	L 90–114	✓correct	−14
Jan 3	at CLE	27%	113–123	L 101–140	✓correct	−29
Dec 31	vs ATL	43%	116–122	L 126–130	✓correct	+2
Dec 29	vs BKN	41%	116–123	W 110–104	✗missed	+13
Dec 27	vs TOR	47%	116–120	L 102–132	✓correct	−26
Dec 26	vs ORL	43%	117–123	L 119–127	✓correct	−2
Dec 22	at GSW	30%	114–122	L 118–129	✓correct	−3
Dec 21	at POR	47%	118–117	W 118–117	✓correct	±0
Dec 18	at SAC	30%	113–121	L 131–143	✓correct	−4
Dec 17	at PHX	28%	112–121	L 108–112	✓correct	+5
Dec 15	vs IND	31%	112–124	W 137–123	✗missed	+26
Dec 13	vs NOP	39%	115–123	L 122–142	✓correct	−12
Dec 11	at PHI	18%	110–126	L 101–146	✓correct	−29
Dec 8	at BKN	28%	113–122	L 97–124	✓correct	−18
Dec 6	vs PHI	47%	117–121	L 126–131	✓correct	−1
Dec 1	at ORL	24%	109–121	L 125–130	✓correct	+7
Nov 29	at ORL	24%	109–121	L 120–139	✓correct	−7
Nov 27	at DET	43%	116–117	W 126–107	✗missed	+20
Nov 25	vs ATL	41%	115–122	L 108–136	✓correct	−21
Nov 24	at MIL	34%	115–121	L 128–131	✓correct	+3
Nov 22	at CHA	43%	118–119	L 114–117	✓correct	−2
Nov 20	vs MIL	43%	115–121	L 129–142	✓correct	−7
Nov 17	vs NYK	49%	115–118	L 99–120	✓correct	−18
Nov 15	vs DAL	43%	112–118	L 117–130	✓correct	−7
Nov 13	at TOR	30%	110–118	L 107–111	✓correct	+4
Nov 12	at BKN	43%	117–118	L 94–102	✓correct	−7
Nov 10	vs CHA	61%	116–113	L 117–124	✗missed	−10
Nov 8	at CHA	55%	116–111	W 132–116	✓correct	+11
Nov 6	at PHI	28%	109–118	L 128–146	✓correct	−9
Nov 3	at MIA	37%	112–116	L 114–121	✓correct	−3
Nov 1	at ATL	43%	115–116	L 121–130	✓correct	−8
Oct 30	vs BOS	51%	114–116	L 107–126	✓correct	−17
Oct 28	vs MEM	53%	117–118	W 113–106	✗missed	+8
Oct 25	at IND	51%	121–118	L 120–143	✗missed	−26
Apr 9	vs HOU	65%	119–113	L 109–114	✗missed	−11
Apr 7	vs MIA	32%	115–122	W 114–108	✗missed	+13
Apr 5	at ATL	35%	118–124	L 116–134	✓correct	−12
Apr 4	vs MIL	35%	117–123	L 128–140	✓correct	−6
Apr 2	at NYK	28%	109–118	L 109–118	✓correct	±0
Mar 31	vs ORL	37%	112–117	L 109–116	✓correct	−2
Mar 28	vs BOS	30%	113–121	W 130–111	✗missed	+27
Mar 26	at TOR	24%	107–118	L 104–114	✓correct	+1
Mar 24	vs SAS	60%	119–115	W 136–124	✓correct	+8
Mar 22	vs DEN	35%	111–117	L 104–118	✓correct	−8
Mar 21	at ORL	53%	117–116	L 112–122	✗missed	−11
Mar 18	vs SAC	53%	115–114	L 118–132	✗missed	−15
Mar 17	at CLE	28%	106–115	L 94–117	✓correct	−14
Mar 14	vs DET	78%	119–107	W 117–97	✓correct	+8
Mar 12	at PHI	32%	104–111	L 93–112	✓correct	−12
Mar 10	vs ATL	53%	119–118	L 107–114	✗missed	−8
Mar 8	vs ATL	47%	117–118	L 120–122	✓correct	−1
Mar 7	at DET	72%	116–107	W 119–117	✓correct	−7
Mar 5	vs MIL	55%	115–113	L 111–117	✗missed	−8
Mar 4	vs TOR	53%	114–113	L 109–116	✗missed	−8
Mar 2	vs TOR	53%	114–113	W 119–108	✓correct	+10
Feb 28	at ATL	40%	115–119	W 119–116	✗missed	+7
Feb 26	at CHI	42%	112–115	L 82–102	✓correct	−17
Feb 24	vs NYK	60%	116–112	L 109–115	✗missed	−10
Feb 16	at MIN	45%	117–119	W 114–106	✗missed	+10
Feb 14	at POR	47%	115–116	W 126–101	✗missed	+26
Feb 13	at GSW	32%	115–122	L 126–135	✓correct	−2
Feb 11	vs IND	74%	122–112	W 127–113	✓correct	+4
Feb 8	vs CHA	78%	121–109	W 118–104	✓correct	+2
Feb 6	vs CLE	55%	112–110	L 91–114	✗missed	−25
Feb 4	at BKN	45%	115–117	L 123–125	✓correct	±0
Feb 3	vs POR	72%	123–114	L 116–124	✗missed	−17
Jan 30	at SAS	68%	125–118	W 127–106	✓correct	+14
Jan 28	at NOP	47%	115–116	W 113–103	✗missed	+11
Jan 25	at HOU	63%	122–117	W 108–103	✓correct	±0
Jan 24	at DAL	53%	114–113	W 127–126	✓correct	±0
Jan 21	vs ORL	60%	119–115	W 138–118	✓correct	+16
Jan 18	at NYK	40%	110–114	W 116–105	✗missed	+15
Jan 16	vs GSW	53%	114–113	L 118–127	✗missed	−10
Jan 13	vs NYK	42%	111–114	L 108–112	✓correct	−1
Jan 11	vs CHI	42%	115–118	W 100–97	✗missed	+6
Jan 9	vs NOP	45%	112–114	L 112–132	✓correct	−18
Jan 6	at OKC	63%	117–112	L 110–127	✗missed	−22
Jan 3	at MIL	47%	113–114	L 113–123	✓correct	−9
Jan 1	at MIL	40%	111–115	W 118–95	✗missed	+27
Dec 30	at ORL	74%	121–111	W 119–100	✓correct	+9
Dec 28	vs PHX	42%	113–116	W 127–102	✗missed	+28
Dec 27	vs PHI	28%	110–119	W 116–111	✗missed	+14
Dec 23	at SAC	35%	113–119	W 125–111	✗missed	+20
Dec 22	at UTA	32%	113–120	L 112–120	✓correct	−1
Dec 20	at PHX	35%	114–120	W 113–110	✗missed	+9
Dec 18	at LAL	37%	115–120	L 117–119	✓correct	+3
Dec 17	at LAC	45%	114–116	L 93–102	✓correct	−7
Dec 14	at DEN	24%	112–123	L 128–141	✓correct	−2
Dec 12	vs BKN	35%	113–119	L 100–112	✓correct	−6
Dec 10	vs LAC	47%	115–116	L 107–114	✓correct	−6
Dec 9	at IND	47%	115–116	L 111–121	✓correct	−9
Dec 7	at CHI	47%	116–117	L 111–115	✓correct	−3
Dec 4	vs LAL	47%	116–117	L 119–130	✓correct	−10
Dec 2	at CHA	70%	117–109	L 116–117	✗missed	−9
Nov 30	at BKN	45%	110–112	L 107–113	✓correct	−4
Nov 28	vs MIN	40%	111–115	W 142–127	✗missed	+19
Nov 27	at BOS	28%	109–118	L 121–130	✓correct	±0
Nov 25	at MIA	58%	111–108	L 107–110	✗missed	−6
Nov 23	at MIA	55%	110–108	L 105–113	✗missed	−10
Nov 20	vs CHA	65%	110–104	W 106–102	✓correct	−2
Nov 18	vs MIA	47%	108–109	W 107–106	✗missed	+2
Nov 16	vs OKC	60%	113–109	L 120–121	✗missed	−5
Nov 13	vs MEM	40%	109–113	W 102–92	✗missed	+14
Nov 12	vs UTA	30%	106–114	W 121–112	✗missed	+17
Nov 10	vs DAL	26%	102–112	W 113–105	✗missed	+18
Nov 7	at CHA	32%	106–113	W 108–100	✗missed	+15
Nov 6	at MEM	24%	107–118	L 97–103	✓correct	+5
Nov 4	vs BKN	55%	112–110	L 86–128	✗missed	−44
Nov 2	at PHI	42%	103–106	W 121–111	✗missed	+13
Oct 31	vs PHI	37%	104–109	L 111–118	✓correct	−2
Oct 30	at BOS	30%	106–114	L 94–112	✓correct	−10
Oct 28	vs IND	65%	119–113	L 117–127	✗missed	−16
Oct 25	vs DET	68%	116–109	W 120–99	✓correct	+14
Oct 23	at CLE	40%	110–114	L 107–117	✓correct	−6
Oct 21	vs CHI	47%	113–114	W 102–100	✗missed	+3
Oct 19	at IND	55%	116–114	W 114–107	✓correct	+5

Surprise games

All WAS surprises

Across every graded season. The percentage is the pregame chance the forecast gave the team that won.

Most unexpected WAS wins

8%WAS beat DET126–117Feb 5, 2025-26 · forecast DET126–105 · missed margin by 30
15%WAS beat MEM130–122Dec 20, 2025-26 · forecast MEM123–108 · missed margin by 23
17%WAS beat ATL132–113Nov 25, 2025-26 · forecast ATL126–112 · missed margin by 33
17%WAS beat MIA110–108Mar 10, 2023-24 · forecast MIA123–106 · missed margin by 19
18%WAS beat CHI107–105Mar 25, 2023-24 · forecast CHI126–110 · missed margin by 18

Most unexpected WAS losses

25%DET beat WAS129–117Jan 15, 2023-24 · forecast WAS125–114 · missed margin by 23
28%POR beat WAS124–116Feb 3, 2022-23 · forecast WAS123–114 · missed margin by 17
30%CHA beat WAS117–116Dec 2, 2022-23 · forecast WAS117–109 · missed margin by 9
32%DET beat WAS96–87Mar 29, 2023-24 · forecast WAS116–109 · missed margin by 16
35%HOU beat WAS114–109Apr 9, 2022-23 · forecast WAS119–113 · missed margin by 11

Largest margin misses

45%BKN beat WAS128–86Nov 4, 2022-23 · forecast WAS112–110 · missed margin by 44
75%IND beat WAS162–109Mar 27, 2024-25 · forecast IND123–112 · missed margin by 42
74%BOS beat WAS146–101Dec 4, 2025-26 · forecast BOS117–108 · missed margin by 36
30%WAS beat ATL127–99Jan 13, 2023-24 · forecast ATL121–113 · missed margin by 36
17%WAS beat ATL132–113Nov 25, 2025-26 · forecast ATL126–112 · missed margin by 33

Definitions

Expected wins: The sum of the team's pregame win probabilities over the games in the sample (home: the stored home win probability; road: one minus it).
Wins vs expectation: Actual wins minus expected wins. It describes results relative to the forecasts, not why they differed.
Margin error: The team's actual margin minus its forecast margin, in points. Positive means the team did better than forecast.
Error variability: The sample standard deviation of margin errors. Higher means the forecasts for this team's games were less consistent.
Winner picked: The share of the team's games in which the forecast winner won, whichever team that was. Teams play different mixes of close and lopsided games, so this alone is not a fair measure of how hard a team is to forecast.
Average margin miss: The mean absolute margin error. This is the headline measure of how hard a team's games were for this model to forecast.
Average margin error: The mean signed margin error. Consistently positive means the model underrated the team in this sample; negative, overrated.
Brier score: The mean squared difference between the team's pregame win probability and the result (1 for a win, 0 for a loss). It rewards confident correct forecasts and penalises confident wrong ones.
Intervals and samples: Ranges are 90% bootstrap intervals (1,000 resamples of the team's games). Under 20 games no ranking is shown; 20 to 59 games is exploratory; 60 or more is roughly a full season.

More on how forecasts are made and tested: Methodology.

Upcoming

Recent results

Predictability

2026-27 (in progress)

2025-26

2024-25

2023-24

2022-23

2022-23 to 2026-27

Surprise games

Most unexpected WAS wins

Most unexpected WAS losses

Largest margin misses

Recent results the forecast got wrong

Definitions