The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 31

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns

Tuesday, October 31, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

SAS 0–1@PHX 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: SAS 28 percent, PHX 72 percent. SAS Spurs 28% proj. 111 · final 115 PHX Suns · home 72% proj. 120 · final 114
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
SAS San Antonio Spurs 111 115 +4
PHX Phoenix Suns (home) 120 114 −6

Forecast: Phoenix Suns to win, 72% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputSASPHX
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13561550
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +264
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −10.7+2.4
Games played this season 33
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 111.5112.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 119.5115.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 101.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 23
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAS1356PHX1550

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAS1356

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1326 → started this one at 1369
  2. This season's 3 games: −13.4
  • LDAL119–126−8.0
  • WHOU126–122+4.8
  • L@LAC83–123−10.2

PHX1550

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1551 → started this one at 1539
  2. This season's 3 games: +11.3
  • W@GSW108–104+8.6
  • L@LAL95–100−5.1
  • WUTA126–104+7.8
Season scoring marginSAS−10.7PHX+2.4

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAS−10.7

Scores 109.3, allows 123.7 over 3 games: −14.3 a game.

15% this season (−14.3) + 85% last season (−10.0) = −10.7

PHX+2.4

Scores 109.7, allows 102.7 over 3 games: +7.0 a game.

15% this season (+7.0) + 85% last season (+1.6) = +2.4

Offensive rating, last 10SAS111.5PHX112.2

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23: 114.0).

SAS111.5scored, −2.5 vs league

FactorSASLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.6%54.6%−1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)13.2%11.9%−1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.9%23.8%+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1910.210−0.6
Everything else+0.9

PHX112.2scored, −1.9 vs league

FactorPHXLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.9%54.6%−1.0
Turnovers (TOV%)11.7%11.9%+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.2%23.8%−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1930.210−0.5
Everything else−0.1
Defensive rating, last 10SAS119.5PHX115.2

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23: 114.0).

SAS119.5allowed, +5.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.7%54.6%−4.8
Turnovers (TOV%)10.7%11.9%−1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.4%23.8%−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1610.210+1.4
Everything else−0.1

PHX115.2allowed, +1.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.2%54.6%+3.7
Turnovers (TOV%)10.2%11.9%−2.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.7%23.8%−1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2290.210−0.6
Everything else−0.4
Pace, last 10average 101.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAS 104.6 and PHX 99.2 → average 101.9 (league 2022-23: 99.6)

Rotation points missingSAS0.0PHX0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-10-31 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

PHX0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-10-31 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestSAS2 daysPHX3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAS2days

Last played Oct 29 against LAC.

PHX3days

Last played Oct 28 against UTA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 29@LAC83–12330-8011-3312-1625679.8119.4103.5
Oct 27HOU126–12246-9413-4221-281812113.5109.9100.5
Oct 25DAL119–12646-8911-3516-22199111.2117.8107.0
Apr 9@DAL138–11751-10415-3821-301213123.2103.5112.5
Apr 8MIN131–15150-9513-2918-241310123.6141.1106.5
Apr 6POR129–12747-10610-3525-281418119.4117.6108.0
Apr 4@PHX94–11535-9013-4011-1412996.9117.397.5
Apr 2@SAC142–13452-9813-3425-291714124.6117.5103.2
Mar 31@GSW115–13042-9115-3816-231314115.0131.399.5
Mar 29UTA117–12845-9510-3517-21159108.3119.6107.5

PHX

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 28UTA126–10445-8510-3726-28117124.8104.0100.5
Oct 26@LAL95–10034-819-3118-23201090.596.2104.5
Oct 24@GSW108–10442-9511-3313-171917106.9102.0101.5
May 11DEN100–12538-7911-2813-20142101.0127.698.5
May 9@DEN102–11838-889-2717-24108103.0118.099.5
May 7DEN129–12446-8113-2924-291312137.2130.594.5
May 5DEN121–11448-959-2816-1897118.6111.8102.0
May 1@DEN87–9738-956-315-591193.5104.393.0
Apr 29@DEN107–12543-847-2314-17168110.3127.697.5
Apr 25LAC136–13051-9413-2621-24711136.0130.0100.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
28%
pregame chance the forecast gave SAS, the winner
the forecast favored PHX
10 pts
margin miss
forecast +9, actual −1 for PHX
23rd
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
569th
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 1.26 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statSASPHX
Final score115114
Field goals43–92 · 46.7%42–83 · 50.6%
Three-pointers14–37 · 37.8%18–39 · 46.2%
Free throws15–20 · 75.0%12–15 · 80.0%
Rebounds3743
Assists2529
Turnovers1219
Steals108
Blocks97

How the model does with these teams over time: San Antonio Spurs · Phoenix Suns

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (PHX)+9−1−10
Total points231229−2
SAS points111115+4
PHX points120114−6

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
SAS18273733–115
PHX27363219–114

Recent form before this game

San Antonio Spurs

DateOpponentResult
Oct 29 at LAC L 83–123
Oct 27 vs HOU W 126–122
Oct 25 vs DAL L 119–126
Apr 9 at DAL W 138–117
Apr 8 vs MIN L 131–151

Phoenix Suns

DateOpponentResult
Oct 28 vs UTA W 126–104
Oct 26 at LAL L 95–100
Oct 24 at GSW W 108–104
May 11 vs DEN L 100–125
May 9 at DEN L 102–118

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 4 2022-23 SAS at PHX SAS 94 – 115 PHX
Jan 28 2022-23 PHX at SAS PHX 128 – 118 SAS
Dec 4 2022-23 PHX at SAS PHX 133 – 95 SAS
Jan 30 2021-22 SAS at PHX SAS 110 – 115 PHX
Jan 17 2021-22 PHX at SAS PHX 121 – 107 SAS