Western Conference · 2026-27

New Orleans Pelicans NOP

4–6

2026-27 record

1433

Elo rating

with the forecast of Nov 8

113.5

Offensive rating

last 10 games

112.9

Defensive rating

last 10, lower is better

103.1

Pace

possessions per game

Hover the ball to see a season.

Every graded NOP game, one dot each, oldest at the center. 226 of 342 forecasts picked the winner (colored dots).

Elo rating, recent games

Pregame Elo stored with each of NOP's last 82 forecasts. Dashed: 1500, the long-run average.

Elo rating recorded with each team's most recent forecast. Higher is stronger; 1500 is the long-run average. NOP ranks 21 of 30.

Upcoming

Schedule

Nov 9 10:00 PM ET

NOP New Orleans Pelicans 4–6 –

@GSW Golden State Warriors 7–3 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 11 8:00 PM ET

BKN Brooklyn Nets 2–8 –

@NOP New Orleans Pelicans 4–6 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 13 8:00 PM ET

MEM Memphis Grizzlies 6–3 –

@NOP New Orleans Pelicans 4–6 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 14 7:00 PM ET

DEN Denver Nuggets 5–3 –

@NOP New Orleans Pelicans 4–6 –

Forecast coming Details

Recent results

Predictability

How closely the forecasts tracked NOP games. A team can be hard for this model to forecast whether it is good or bad: misses come from the model's limits, roster changes, missing information and ordinary game-to-game variation. Compare all 30 teams

2026-27 (in progress)

Small sample: 10 games. These figures are a running log, not a measurement, and no ranking is shown.

7.7 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 4.3 to 11.7

+1.3

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -4.0 to 7.0

11.2 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.7

60%

winner picked

10 games involving NOP

4 / 4.6

actual / expected wins

gap −0.6

0.212

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 10 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	NOP win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 8	at LAC	39%	115–119	L 123–139	✓correct	−12
Nov 6	vs MIN	30%	115–122	L 109–115	✓correct	+1
Nov 4	vs UTA	73%	122–114	W 120–113	✓correct	−1
Nov 2	at MEM	44%	118–120	W 135–134	✗missed	+3
Oct 31	vs ATL	36%	118–123	W 121–99	✗missed	+27
Oct 29	vs SAC	56%	122–120	W 132–120	✓correct	+10
Oct 28	vs DEN	41%	118–121	L 91–104	✓correct	−10
Oct 24	at DEN	24%	113–123	L 135–141	✓correct	+4
Oct 23	at UTA	56%	123–121	L 119–120	✗missed	−3
Oct 21	vs IND	59%	124–121	L 120–123	✗missed	−6

2025-26

9.6 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 8.5 to 10.8; 1st smallest of 30

+1.4

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -0.8 to 3.4

11.7 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.4

71%

winner picked

82 games involving NOP

26 / 28.9

actual / expected wins

gap −3.0

0.173

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	NOP win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 12	at MIN	15%	107–122	L 126–132	✓correct	+9
Apr 10	at BOS	15%	105–120	L 118–144	✓correct	−11
Apr 7	vs UTA	59%	120–117	W 156–137	✓correct	+16
Apr 5	vs ORL	31%	111–118	L 108–112	✓correct	+3
Apr 3	at SAC	56%	115–113	L 113–117	✗missed	−6
Apr 2	at POR	31%	111–118	L 106–118	✓correct	−5
Mar 29	vs HOU	53%	115–114	L 102–134	✗missed	−33
Mar 27	at TOR	34%	113–119	L 106–119	✓correct	−7
Mar 26	at DET	31%	112–119	L 108–129	✓correct	−14
Mar 24	at NYK	34%	112–118	L 116–121	✓correct	+1
Mar 21	vs CLE	53%	116–115	L 106–111	✗missed	−6
Mar 19	vs LAC	47%	117–118	W 105–99	✗missed	+7
Mar 18	vs LAC	44%	118–120	W 124–109	✗missed	+17
Mar 16	vs DAL	67%	121–115	W 129–111	✓correct	+12
Mar 13	at HOU	34%	115–121	L 105–107	✓correct	+4
Mar 11	vs TOR	42%	115–118	W 122–111	✗missed	+14
Mar 8	vs WAS	71%	123–115	W 138–118	✓correct	+12
Mar 6	at PHX	53%	111–110	L 116–118	✗missed	−3
Mar 5	at SAC	66%	119–113	W 133–123	✓correct	+4
Mar 3	at LAL	34%	114–120	L 101–110	✓correct	−3
Mar 1	at LAC	39%	112–116	L 117–137	✓correct	−16
Feb 28	at UTA	64%	117–112	W 115–105	✓correct	+5
Feb 26	at UTA	64%	117–112	W 129–118	✓correct	+6
Feb 24	vs GSW	42%	112–115	W 113–109	✗missed	+7
Feb 21	vs PHI	47%	113–114	W 126–111	✗missed	+16
Feb 20	vs MIL	44%	109–111	L 118–139	✓correct	−19
Feb 11	vs MIA	44%	114–116	L 111–123	✓correct	−10
Feb 9	vs SAC	61%	115–111	W 120–94	✓correct	+22
Feb 6	at MIN	24%	112–122	W 119–115	✗missed	+14
Feb 4	at MIL	58%	112–109	L 137–141	✗missed	−7
Feb 2	at CHA	24%	108–118	L 95–102	✓correct	+3
Jan 31	at PHI	36%	112–117	L 114–124	✓correct	−5
Jan 30	vs MEM	56%	115–113	W 114–106	✓correct	+6
Jan 27	at OKC	14%	110–126	L 95–104	✓correct	+7
Jan 25	at SAS	20%	109–121	W 104–95	✗missed	+21
Jan 23	at MEM	34%	113–119	W 133–127	✗missed	+12
Jan 21	vs DET	22%	108–119	L 104–112	✓correct	+3
Jan 18	at HOU	24%	106–116	L 110–119	✓correct	+1
Jan 16	at IND	44%	116–118	L 119–127	✓correct	−6
Jan 14	vs BKN	47%	113–114	W 116–113	✗missed	+4
Jan 13	vs DEN	47%	114–115	L 116–122	✓correct	−5
Jan 11	at ORL	24%	112–122	L 118–128	✓correct	±0
Jan 9	at WAS	44%	116–118	W 128–107	✗missed	+23
Jan 7	at ATL	36%	118–123	L 100–117	✓correct	−12
Jan 6	vs LAL	34%	115–121	L 103–111	✓correct	−2
Jan 4	at MIA	22%	112–123	L 106–125	✓correct	−8
Jan 2	vs POR	39%	116–120	L 109–122	✓correct	−9
Dec 31	at CHI	53%	119–118	L 118–134	✗missed	−17
Dec 29	vs NYK	22%	115–126	L 125–130	✓correct	+6
Dec 27	vs PHX	42%	115–118	L 114–123	✓correct	−6
Dec 26	vs PHX	42%	117–120	L 108–115	✓correct	−4
Dec 23	at CLE	26%	116–125	L 118–141	✓correct	−14
Dec 22	vs DAL	44%	118–120	W 119–113	✗missed	+8
Dec 20	vs IND	44%	115–117	W 128–109	✗missed	+21
Dec 18	vs HOU	20%	113–125	W 133–128	✗missed	+17
Dec 14	at CHI	44%	119–121	W 114–104	✗missed	+12
Dec 11	vs POR	31%	114–121	W 143–120	✗missed	+30
Dec 8	vs SAS	24%	115–125	L 132–135	✓correct	+7
Dec 6	at BKN	39%	112–116	L 101–119	✓correct	−14
Dec 4	vs MIN	19%	111–124	L 116–125	✓correct	+4
Dec 2	vs MIN	15%	109–124	L 142–149	✓correct	+8
Nov 30	at LAL	10%	107–126	L 121–133	✓correct	+7
Nov 29	at GSW	20%	109–121	L 96–104	✓correct	+4
Nov 26	vs MEM	39%	114–118	L 128–133	✓correct	−1
Nov 24	vs CHI	31%	116–123	W 143–130	✗missed	+20
Nov 22	vs ATL	22%	112–123	L 98–115	✓correct	−6
Nov 21	at DAL	34%	111–117	L 115–118	✓correct	+3
Nov 19	vs DEN	17%	112–126	L 118–125	✓correct	+7
Nov 17	vs OKC	15%	112–127	L 109–126	✓correct	−2
Nov 16	vs GSW	31%	110–117	L 106–124	✓correct	−11
Nov 14	vs LAL	24%	109–119	L 104–118	✓correct	−4
Nov 12	vs POR	19%	110–123	L 117–125	✓correct	+5
Nov 10	at PHX	22%	111–122	L 98–121	✓correct	−12
Nov 8	at SAS	14%	106–122	L 119–126	✓correct	+9
Nov 5	at DAL	29%	111–119	W 101–99	✗missed	+10
Nov 4	vs CHA	47%	115–116	W 116–112	✗missed	+5
Nov 2	at OKC	15%	104–119	L 106–137	✓correct	−16
Oct 31	at LAC	19%	103–116	L 124–126	✓correct	+11
Oct 29	at DEN	15%	108–123	L 88–122	✓correct	−19
Oct 27	vs BOS	27%	107–116	L 90–122	✓correct	−23
Oct 24	vs SAS	34%	114–120	L 116–120	✓correct	+2
Oct 22	at MEM	20%	109–121	L 122–128	✓correct	+6

2024-25

Across 82 graded games, NOP finished an average of 2.9 points worse than the forecast margin (90% interval -5.1 to -0.5).

10.2 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 8.6 to 11.8; 8th smallest of 30

−2.9

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -5.1 to -0.5

13.3 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

74%

winner picked

82 games involving NOP

21 / 28.6

actual / expected wins

gap −7.6

0.164

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	NOP win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 13	vs OKC	21%	112–125	L 100–115	✓correct	−2
Apr 11	vs MIA	18%	104–119	L 104–153	✓correct	−34
Apr 10	at MIL	12%	104–122	L 111–136	✓correct	−7
Apr 8	at BKN	51%	108–107	L 114–119	✗missed	−6
Apr 6	vs MIL	21%	107–120	L 107–111	✓correct	+9
Apr 4	at LAL	21%	107–119	L 108–124	✓correct	−4
Apr 2	at LAC	18%	105–119	L 98–114	✓correct	−2
Mar 30	vs CHA	44%	109–112	W 98–94	✗missed	+7
Mar 28	vs GSW	23%	108–120	L 95–111	✓correct	−4
Mar 24	vs PHI	46%	113–115	W 112–99	✗missed	+15
Mar 23	at DET	21%	110–122	L 130–136	✓correct	+6
Mar 21	at MIN	25%	107–117	L 93–134	✓correct	−31
Mar 19	at MIN	25%	107–117	W 119–115	✗missed	+14
Mar 17	vs DET	34%	114–121	L 81–127	✓correct	−39
Mar 15	at SAS	38%	114–118	L 115–119	✓correct	±0
Mar 13	vs ORL	49%	112–113	L 93–113	✓correct	−19
Mar 11	vs LAC	39%	109–114	W 127–120	✗missed	+12
Mar 9	vs MEM	36%	117–123	L 104–107	✓correct	+3
Mar 8	at HOU	29%	111–119	L 117–146	✓correct	−21
Mar 6	vs HOU	44%	114–117	L 97–109	✓correct	−9
Mar 4	at LAL	29%	110–118	L 115–136	✓correct	−13
Mar 2	at UTA	61%	119–114	W 128–121	✓correct	+2
Feb 28	at PHX	33%	117–123	L 108–125	✓correct	−11
Feb 27	at PHX	33%	115–121	W 124–116	✗missed	+14
Feb 25	vs SAS	46%	117–119	W 109–103	✗missed	+8
Feb 23	vs SAS	44%	116–119	W 114–96	✗missed	+21
Feb 21	at DAL	23%	114–125	L 103–111	✓correct	+3
Feb 13	vs SAC	25%	114–125	W 140–133	✗missed	+18
Feb 12	vs SAC	29%	114–123	L 111–119	✓correct	+1
Feb 10	at OKC	11%	112–131	L 101–137	✓correct	−17
Feb 8	at SAC	27%	114–123	L 118–123	✓correct	+4
Feb 5	at DEN	15%	112–128	L 119–144	✓correct	−9
Feb 3	at DEN	21%	113–125	L 113–125	✓correct	±0
Jan 31	vs BOS	41%	112–116	L 116–118	✓correct	+2
Jan 29	vs DAL	41%	114–118	L 136–137	✓correct	+3
Jan 27	at TOR	41%	112–115	L 104–113	✓correct	−6
Jan 25	at CHA	54%	114–112	L 92–123	✗missed	−33
Jan 24	at MEM	23%	112–123	L 126–139	✓correct	−2
Jan 20	vs UTA	62%	115–111	W 123–119	✓correct	±0
Jan 17	vs UTA	59%	113–110	W 136–123	✓correct	+10
Jan 15	vs DAL	46%	113–115	W 119–116	✗missed	+5
Jan 14	at CHI	29%	114–122	W 119–113	✗missed	+14
Jan 12	at BOS	18%	106–120	L 119–120	✓correct	+13
Jan 10	at PHI	23%	105–116	W 123–115	✗missed	+19
Jan 8	vs POR	57%	116–114	L 100–119	✗missed	−21
Jan 7	vs MIN	44%	111–114	L 97–104	✓correct	−4
Jan 5	at WAS	61%	118–113	W 110–98	✓correct	+7
Jan 3	vs WAS	64%	119–114	W 132–120	✓correct	+7
Jan 1	at MIA	25%	106–116	L 108–119	✓correct	−1
Dec 30	vs LAC	29%	112–121	L 113–116	✓correct	+6
Dec 27	vs MEM	25%	111–122	L 124–132	✓correct	+3
Dec 26	vs HOU	27%	110–120	L 111–128	✓correct	−7
Dec 22	vs DEN	25%	115–126	L 129–132	✓correct	+8
Dec 21	vs NYK	27%	108–118	L 93–104	✓correct	−1
Dec 19	at HOU	18%	105–119	L 113–133	✓correct	−6
Dec 15	at IND	31%	111–118	L 104–119	✓correct	−8
Dec 12	vs SAC	29%	113–122	L 109–111	✓correct	+7
Dec 8	at SAS	25%	111–121	L 116–121	✓correct	+5
Dec 7	vs OKC	27%	107–117	L 109–119	✓correct	±0
Dec 5	vs PHX	41%	110–114	W 126–124	✗missed	+6
Dec 2	at ATL	31%	110–117	L 112–124	✓correct	−5
Dec 1	at NYK	18%	105–119	L 85–118	✓correct	−19
Nov 29	at MEM	16%	108–123	L 109–120	✓correct	+4
Nov 27	vs TOR	62%	109–105	L 93–119	✗missed	−30
Nov 25	at IND	29%	106–114	L 110–114	✓correct	+4
Nov 22	vs GSW	32%	107–115	L 108–112	✓correct	+4
Nov 20	at CLE	21%	109–121	L 100–128	✓correct	−16
Nov 19	at DAL	18%	104–118	L 91–132	✓correct	−27
Nov 16	vs LAL	29%	108–117	L 99–104	✓correct	+4
Nov 15	vs DEN	41%	110–114	W 101–94	✗missed	+11
Nov 13	at OKC	16%	108–123	L 88–106	✓correct	−3
Nov 11	vs BKN	36%	109–115	L 105–107	✓correct	+4
Nov 8	at ORL	38%	109–113	L 88–115	✓correct	−23
Nov 6	vs CLE	34%	108–115	L 122–131	✓correct	−2
Nov 4	vs POR	64%	113–108	L 100–118	✗missed	−23
Nov 3	vs ATL	69%	118–111	L 111–126	✗missed	−22
Nov 1	vs IND	46%	110–112	W 125–118	✗missed	+9
Oct 30	at GSW	27%	108–117	L 89–104	✓correct	−6
Oct 29	at GSW	36%	111–116	L 106–124	✓correct	−13
Oct 27	at POR	59%	112–108	L 103–125	✗missed	−26
Oct 25	at POR	66%	115–108	W 105–103	✓correct	−5
Oct 23	vs CHI	62%	110–106	W 123–111	✓correct	+8

2023-24

13.6 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 11.9 to 15.4; 30th smallest of 30

+1.1

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.0 to 3.9

16.6 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.3

54%

winner picked

86 games involving NOP

49 / 46.8

actual / expected wins

gap +2.2

0.248

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 86 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	NOP win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 29 PO	vs OKC	51%	105–107	L 89–97	✓correct	−6
Apr 27 PO	vs OKC	59%	110–108	L 85–106	✗missed	−23
Apr 24 PO	at OKC	32%	106–113	L 92–124	✓correct	−25
Apr 21 PO	at OKC	32%	107–114	L 92–94	✓correct	+5
Apr 14	vs LAL	65%	117–112	L 108–124	✗missed	−21
Apr 12	at GSW	43%	110–111	W 114–109	✗missed	+6
Apr 11	at SAC	43%	107–108	W 135–123	✗missed	+13
Apr 9	at POR	61%	114–106	W 110–100	✓correct	+2
Apr 7	at PHX	34%	106–112	W 113–105	✗missed	+14
Apr 5	vs SAS	73%	112–102	L 109–111	✗missed	−12
Apr 3	vs ORL	57%	106–105	L 108–117	✗missed	−10
Apr 1	vs PHX	65%	111–106	L 111–124	✗missed	−18
Mar 30	vs BOS	43%	102–108	L 92–104	✓correct	−6
Mar 28	vs MIL	65%	112–107	W 107–100	✓correct	+2
Mar 26	vs OKC	63%	113–109	L 112–119	✗missed	−11
Mar 24	at DET	71%	119–106	W 114–101	✓correct	±0
Mar 22	at MIA	41%	106–108	W 111–88	✗missed	+25
Mar 21	at ORL	43%	107–108	L 106–121	✓correct	−14
Mar 19	at BKN	47%	112–111	W 104–91	✓correct	+12
Mar 16	vs POR	78%	114–101	W 126–107	✓correct	+6
Mar 15	vs LAC	65%	113–108	W 112–104	✓correct	+3
Mar 13	vs CLE	68%	114–107	L 95–116	✗missed	−28
Mar 10	at ATL	53%	112–108	W 116–103	✓correct	+9
Mar 8	at PHI	51%	111–108	W 103–95	✓correct	+5
Mar 5	at TOR	61%	120–112	W 139–98	✓correct	+33
Mar 1	vs IND	68%	117–110	W 129–102	✓correct	+20
Feb 28	at IND	41%	116–118	L 114–123	✓correct	−7
Feb 27	at NYK	39%	109–112	W 115–92	✗missed	+26
Feb 25	vs CHI	61%	112–109	L 106–114	✗missed	−11
Feb 23	vs MIA	65%	113–108	L 95–106	✗missed	−16
Feb 22	vs HOU	67%	117–111	W 127–105	✓correct	+16
Feb 14	vs WAS	82%	121–105	W 133–126	✓correct	−9
Feb 12	at MEM	59%	117–110	W 96–87	✓correct	+2
Feb 10	at POR	65%	122–112	W 93–84	✓correct	−1
Feb 9	at LAL	47%	117–116	L 122–139	✗missed	−18
Feb 7	at LAC	35%	112–117	W 117–106	✗missed	+16
Feb 5	vs TOR	72%	121–112	W 138–100	✓correct	+29
Feb 2	at SAS	57%	119–113	W 114–113	✓correct	−5
Jan 31	at HOU	51%	118–115	W 110–99	✓correct	+8
Jan 29	at BOS	41%	114–116	L 112–118	✓correct	−4
Jan 27	at MIL	39%	114–117	L 117–141	✓correct	−21
Jan 26	vs OKC	57%	115–114	L 83–107	✗missed	−25
Jan 23	vs UTA	61%	117–114	W 153–124	✓correct	+26
Jan 19	vs PHX	61%	111–108	L 109–123	✗missed	−17
Jan 17	vs CHA	82%	118–102	W 132–112	✓correct	+4
Jan 15	at DAL	59%	118–111	L 120–125	✗missed	−12
Jan 13	at DAL	43%	113–114	W 118–108	✗missed	+11
Jan 12	at DEN	39%	109–112	L 113–125	✓correct	−9
Jan 10	at GSW	51%	117–114	W 141–105	✓correct	+33
Jan 7	at SAC	41%	114–116	W 133–100	✗missed	+35
Jan 5	vs LAC	57%	112–111	L 95–111	✗missed	−17
Jan 3	at MIN	34%	109–115	W 117–106	✗missed	+17
Jan 2	vs BKN	67%	118–112	W 112–85	✓correct	+21
Dec 31	vs LAL	72%	122–113	W 129–109	✓correct	+11
Dec 28	vs UTA	72%	121–112	W 112–105	✓correct	−2
Dec 26	vs MEM	67%	119–113	L 115–116	✗missed	−7
Dec 23	vs HOU	67%	119–113	L 104–106	✗missed	−8
Dec 21	at CLE	47%	115–114	W 123–104	✓correct	+18
Dec 19	vs MEM	70%	120–112	L 113–115	✗missed	−10
Dec 17	at SAS	55%	120–115	W 146–110	✓correct	+31
Dec 15	at CHA	61%	120–112	W 112–107	✓correct	−3
Dec 13	at WAS	61%	123–115	W 142–122	✓correct	+12
Dec 11	vs MIN	61%	116–113	W 121–107	✓correct	+11
Dec 7	at LAL	39%	112–115	L 89–133	✓correct	−41
Dec 4	at SAC	39%	116–119	W 127–117	✗missed	+13
Dec 2	at CHI	53%	112–108	L 118–124	✗missed	−10
Dec 1	vs SAS	79%	125–111	W 121–106	✓correct	+1
Nov 29	vs PHI	51%	111–113	W 124–114	✗missed	+12
Nov 27	at UTA	49%	117–115	L 112–114	✗missed	−4
Nov 25	at UTA	59%	123–116	L 100–105	✗missed	−12
Nov 24	at LAC	41%	113–115	W 116–106	✗missed	+12
Nov 22	vs SAC	57%	117–116	W 117–112	✓correct	+4
Nov 20	vs SAC	51%	114–116	W 129–93	✗missed	+38
Nov 18	vs MIN	45%	112–117	L 120–121	✓correct	+4
Nov 17	vs DEN	49%	111–114	W 115–110	✗missed	+8
Nov 14	vs DAL	47%	113–117	W 131–110	✗missed	+25
Nov 12	vs DAL	57%	115–114	L 124–136	✗missed	−13
Nov 10	at HOU	43%	112–113	L 101–104	✓correct	−2
Nov 8	at MIN	28%	108–117	L 101–122	✓correct	−12
Nov 6	at DEN	34%	108–114	L 116–134	✓correct	−12
Nov 4	vs ATL	63%	118–114	L 105–123	✗missed	−22
Nov 2	vs DET	65%	114–109	W 125–116	✓correct	+4
Nov 1	at OKC	35%	112–117	W 110–106	✗missed	+9
Oct 30	vs GSW	65%	115–110	L 102–130	✗missed	−33
Oct 28	vs NYK	63%	113–109	W 96–87	✓correct	+5
Oct 25	at MEM	35%	110–115	W 111–104	✗missed	+12

2022-23

10.8 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.3 to 12.3; 20th smallest of 30

+0.6

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -1.8 to 3.0

13.7 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 10.3

67%

winner picked

82 games involving NOP

42 / 43.6

actual / expected wins

gap −1.6

0.217

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	NOP win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 9	at MIN	53%	115–114	L 108–113	✗missed	−6
Apr 7	vs NYK	63%	119–114	W 113–105	✓correct	+3
Apr 5	vs MEM	47%	114–115	W 138–131	✗missed	+8
Apr 4	vs SAC	55%	117–115	L 103–121	✗missed	−20
Apr 1	vs LAC	63%	116–111	W 122–114	✓correct	+3
Mar 30	at DEN	32%	109–116	W 107–88	✗missed	+26
Mar 28	at GSW	40%	114–118	L 109–120	✓correct	−7
Mar 27	at POR	80%	121–108	W 124–90	✓correct	+21
Mar 25	at LAC	37%	109–114	W 131–110	✗missed	+26
Mar 23	vs CHA	68%	115–108	W 115–96	✓correct	+12
Mar 21	vs SAS	76%	123–112	W 119–84	✓correct	+24
Mar 19	at HOU	58%	116–113	W 117–107	✓correct	+7
Mar 17	at HOU	60%	119–115	L 112–114	✗missed	−6
Mar 14	vs LAL	45%	113–115	L 108–123	✓correct	−13
Mar 12	vs POR	55%	115–113	W 127–110	✓correct	+15
Mar 11	vs OKC	47%	118–119	L 96–110	✓correct	−13
Mar 8	vs DAL	45%	115–117	W 113–106	✗missed	+9
Mar 6	at SAC	55%	115–113	L 108–123	✗missed	−17
Mar 3	at GSW	40%	112–116	L 99–108	✓correct	−5
Mar 1	at POR	53%	119–118	W 121–110	✓correct	+10
Feb 27	vs ORL	45%	112–114	L 93–101	✓correct	−6
Feb 25	at NYK	35%	109–115	L 106–128	✓correct	−16
Feb 23	at TOR	42%	114–117	L 110–115	✓correct	−2
Feb 15	at LAL	60%	120–116	L 102–120	✗missed	−22
Feb 13	at OKC	42%	117–120	W 103–100	✗missed	+6
Feb 10	vs CLE	47%	110–111	L 107–118	✓correct	−10
Feb 7	vs ATL	45%	116–118	W 116–107	✗missed	+11
Feb 5	vs SAC	28%	109–118	W 136–104	✗missed	+41
Feb 4	vs LAL	37%	112–117	W 131–126	✗missed	+10
Feb 2	at DAL	45%	110–112	L 106–111	✓correct	−3
Jan 31	at DEN	30%	108–116	L 113–122	✓correct	−1
Jan 29	at MIL	28%	110–119	L 110–135	✓correct	−16
Jan 28	vs WAS	53%	116–115	L 103–113	✗missed	−11
Jan 25	vs MIN	55%	117–115	L 102–111	✗missed	−11
Jan 24	vs DEN	40%	112–116	L 98–99	✓correct	+3
Jan 22	at MIA	42%	110–113	L 96–100	✓correct	−1
Jan 20	at ORL	63%	120–115	L 110–123	✗missed	−18
Jan 18	vs MIA	47%	109–110	L 98–124	✓correct	−25
Jan 16	at CLE	42%	111–114	L 103–113	✓correct	−7
Jan 13	at DET	63%	120–115	W 116–110	✓correct	+1
Jan 11	at BOS	22%	107–119	L 114–125	✓correct	+1
Jan 9	at WAS	55%	114–112	W 132–112	✓correct	+18
Jan 7	at DAL	47%	111–112	L 117–127	✓correct	−9
Jan 6	vs BKN	60%	115–111	L 102–108	✗missed	−10
Jan 4	vs HOU	76%	116–105	W 119–108	✓correct	±0
Jan 2	at PHI	42%	114–117	L 111–120	✓correct	−6
Dec 31	at MEM	37%	112–117	L 101–116	✓correct	−10
Dec 30	vs PHI	58%	116–113	W 127–116	✓correct	+8
Dec 28	vs MIN	68%	117–110	W 119–118	✓correct	−6
Dec 26	vs IND	65%	116–110	W 113–93	✓correct	+14
Dec 23	at OKC	63%	117–112	W 128–125	✓correct	−2
Dec 22	vs SAS	81%	118–104	W 126–117	✓correct	−5
Dec 19	vs MIL	60%	116–112	L 119–128	✗missed	−13
Dec 17	at PHX	47%	111–112	L 114–118	✓correct	−3
Dec 15	at UTA	47%	113–114	L 129–132	✓correct	−2
Dec 13	at UTA	45%	115–117	L 100–121	✓correct	−19
Dec 11	vs PHX	68%	113–106	W 129–124	✓correct	−2
Dec 9	vs PHX	60%	114–110	W 128–117	✓correct	+7
Dec 7	vs DET	80%	120–107	W 104–98	✓correct	−7
Dec 4	vs DEN	70%	114–106	W 121–106	✓correct	+7
Dec 2	at SAS	72%	120–111	W 117–99	✓correct	+9
Nov 30	vs TOR	53%	112–111	W 126–108	✓correct	+17
Nov 28	vs OKC	70%	119–111	W 105–101	✓correct	−4
Nov 25	at MEM	53%	113–112	L 111–132	✗missed	−22
Nov 23	at SAS	68%	118–111	W 129–110	✓correct	+12
Nov 21	vs GSW	60%	117–113	W 128–83	✓correct	+41
Nov 18	vs BOS	53%	114–113	L 109–117	✗missed	−9
Nov 16	vs CHI	58%	113–110	W 124–110	✓correct	+11
Nov 15	vs MEM	53%	110–109	W 113–102	✓correct	+10
Nov 12	vs HOU	72%	116–107	W 119–106	✓correct	+4
Nov 10	vs POR	63%	113–108	L 95–106	✗missed	−16
Nov 9	at CHI	63%	115–110	W 115–111	✓correct	−1
Nov 7	at IND	70%	119–111	L 122–129	✗missed	−15
Nov 5	at ATL	58%	111–108	L 121–124	✗missed	−6
Nov 4	vs GSW	63%	118–113	W 114–105	✓correct	+4
Nov 2	at LAL	68%	116–109	L 117–120	✗missed	−10
Oct 30	at LAC	55%	112–110	W 112–91	✓correct	+19
Oct 28	at PHX	35%	105–111	L 111–124	✓correct	−7
Oct 25	vs DAL	32%	104–111	W 113–111	✗missed	+9
Oct 23	vs UTA	45%	107–109	L 121–122	✓correct	+1
Oct 21	at CHA	45%	113–115	W 124–112	✗missed	+14
Oct 19	at BKN	42%	110–113	W 130–108	✗missed	+25

2022-23 to 2026-27

11.0 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.3 to 11.7; 15th smallest of 30

+0.1

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -1.1 to 1.3

13.9 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

66%

winner picked

342 games involving NOP

142 / 152.5

actual / expected wins

gap −10.5

0.202

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 342 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	NOP win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 8	at LAC	39%	115–119	L 123–139	✓correct	−12
Nov 6	vs MIN	30%	115–122	L 109–115	✓correct	+1
Nov 4	vs UTA	73%	122–114	W 120–113	✓correct	−1
Nov 2	at MEM	44%	118–120	W 135–134	✗missed	+3
Oct 31	vs ATL	36%	118–123	W 121–99	✗missed	+27
Oct 29	vs SAC	56%	122–120	W 132–120	✓correct	+10
Oct 28	vs DEN	41%	118–121	L 91–104	✓correct	−10
Oct 24	at DEN	24%	113–123	L 135–141	✓correct	+4
Oct 23	at UTA	56%	123–121	L 119–120	✗missed	−3
Oct 21	vs IND	59%	124–121	L 120–123	✗missed	−6
Apr 12	at MIN	15%	107–122	L 126–132	✓correct	+9
Apr 10	at BOS	15%	105–120	L 118–144	✓correct	−11
Apr 7	vs UTA	59%	120–117	W 156–137	✓correct	+16
Apr 5	vs ORL	31%	111–118	L 108–112	✓correct	+3
Apr 3	at SAC	56%	115–113	L 113–117	✗missed	−6
Apr 2	at POR	31%	111–118	L 106–118	✓correct	−5
Mar 29	vs HOU	53%	115–114	L 102–134	✗missed	−33
Mar 27	at TOR	34%	113–119	L 106–119	✓correct	−7
Mar 26	at DET	31%	112–119	L 108–129	✓correct	−14
Mar 24	at NYK	34%	112–118	L 116–121	✓correct	+1
Mar 21	vs CLE	53%	116–115	L 106–111	✗missed	−6
Mar 19	vs LAC	47%	117–118	W 105–99	✗missed	+7
Mar 18	vs LAC	44%	118–120	W 124–109	✗missed	+17
Mar 16	vs DAL	67%	121–115	W 129–111	✓correct	+12
Mar 13	at HOU	34%	115–121	L 105–107	✓correct	+4
Mar 11	vs TOR	42%	115–118	W 122–111	✗missed	+14
Mar 8	vs WAS	71%	123–115	W 138–118	✓correct	+12
Mar 6	at PHX	53%	111–110	L 116–118	✗missed	−3
Mar 5	at SAC	66%	119–113	W 133–123	✓correct	+4
Mar 3	at LAL	34%	114–120	L 101–110	✓correct	−3
Mar 1	at LAC	39%	112–116	L 117–137	✓correct	−16
Feb 28	at UTA	64%	117–112	W 115–105	✓correct	+5
Feb 26	at UTA	64%	117–112	W 129–118	✓correct	+6
Feb 24	vs GSW	42%	112–115	W 113–109	✗missed	+7
Feb 21	vs PHI	47%	113–114	W 126–111	✗missed	+16
Feb 20	vs MIL	44%	109–111	L 118–139	✓correct	−19
Feb 11	vs MIA	44%	114–116	L 111–123	✓correct	−10
Feb 9	vs SAC	61%	115–111	W 120–94	✓correct	+22
Feb 6	at MIN	24%	112–122	W 119–115	✗missed	+14
Feb 4	at MIL	58%	112–109	L 137–141	✗missed	−7
Feb 2	at CHA	24%	108–118	L 95–102	✓correct	+3
Jan 31	at PHI	36%	112–117	L 114–124	✓correct	−5
Jan 30	vs MEM	56%	115–113	W 114–106	✓correct	+6
Jan 27	at OKC	14%	110–126	L 95–104	✓correct	+7
Jan 25	at SAS	20%	109–121	W 104–95	✗missed	+21
Jan 23	at MEM	34%	113–119	W 133–127	✗missed	+12
Jan 21	vs DET	22%	108–119	L 104–112	✓correct	+3
Jan 18	at HOU	24%	106–116	L 110–119	✓correct	+1
Jan 16	at IND	44%	116–118	L 119–127	✓correct	−6
Jan 14	vs BKN	47%	113–114	W 116–113	✗missed	+4
Jan 13	vs DEN	47%	114–115	L 116–122	✓correct	−5
Jan 11	at ORL	24%	112–122	L 118–128	✓correct	±0
Jan 9	at WAS	44%	116–118	W 128–107	✗missed	+23
Jan 7	at ATL	36%	118–123	L 100–117	✓correct	−12
Jan 6	vs LAL	34%	115–121	L 103–111	✓correct	−2
Jan 4	at MIA	22%	112–123	L 106–125	✓correct	−8
Jan 2	vs POR	39%	116–120	L 109–122	✓correct	−9
Dec 31	at CHI	53%	119–118	L 118–134	✗missed	−17
Dec 29	vs NYK	22%	115–126	L 125–130	✓correct	+6
Dec 27	vs PHX	42%	115–118	L 114–123	✓correct	−6
Dec 26	vs PHX	42%	117–120	L 108–115	✓correct	−4
Dec 23	at CLE	26%	116–125	L 118–141	✓correct	−14
Dec 22	vs DAL	44%	118–120	W 119–113	✗missed	+8
Dec 20	vs IND	44%	115–117	W 128–109	✗missed	+21
Dec 18	vs HOU	20%	113–125	W 133–128	✗missed	+17
Dec 14	at CHI	44%	119–121	W 114–104	✗missed	+12
Dec 11	vs POR	31%	114–121	W 143–120	✗missed	+30
Dec 8	vs SAS	24%	115–125	L 132–135	✓correct	+7
Dec 6	at BKN	39%	112–116	L 101–119	✓correct	−14
Dec 4	vs MIN	19%	111–124	L 116–125	✓correct	+4
Dec 2	vs MIN	15%	109–124	L 142–149	✓correct	+8
Nov 30	at LAL	10%	107–126	L 121–133	✓correct	+7
Nov 29	at GSW	20%	109–121	L 96–104	✓correct	+4
Nov 26	vs MEM	39%	114–118	L 128–133	✓correct	−1
Nov 24	vs CHI	31%	116–123	W 143–130	✗missed	+20
Nov 22	vs ATL	22%	112–123	L 98–115	✓correct	−6
Nov 21	at DAL	34%	111–117	L 115–118	✓correct	+3
Nov 19	vs DEN	17%	112–126	L 118–125	✓correct	+7
Nov 17	vs OKC	15%	112–127	L 109–126	✓correct	−2
Nov 16	vs GSW	31%	110–117	L 106–124	✓correct	−11
Nov 14	vs LAL	24%	109–119	L 104–118	✓correct	−4
Nov 12	vs POR	19%	110–123	L 117–125	✓correct	+5
Nov 10	at PHX	22%	111–122	L 98–121	✓correct	−12
Nov 8	at SAS	14%	106–122	L 119–126	✓correct	+9
Nov 5	at DAL	29%	111–119	W 101–99	✗missed	+10
Nov 4	vs CHA	47%	115–116	W 116–112	✗missed	+5
Nov 2	at OKC	15%	104–119	L 106–137	✓correct	−16
Oct 31	at LAC	19%	103–116	L 124–126	✓correct	+11
Oct 29	at DEN	15%	108–123	L 88–122	✓correct	−19
Oct 27	vs BOS	27%	107–116	L 90–122	✓correct	−23
Oct 24	vs SAS	34%	114–120	L 116–120	✓correct	+2
Oct 22	at MEM	20%	109–121	L 122–128	✓correct	+6
Apr 13	vs OKC	21%	112–125	L 100–115	✓correct	−2
Apr 11	vs MIA	18%	104–119	L 104–153	✓correct	−34
Apr 10	at MIL	12%	104–122	L 111–136	✓correct	−7
Apr 8	at BKN	51%	108–107	L 114–119	✗missed	−6
Apr 6	vs MIL	21%	107–120	L 107–111	✓correct	+9
Apr 4	at LAL	21%	107–119	L 108–124	✓correct	−4
Apr 2	at LAC	18%	105–119	L 98–114	✓correct	−2
Mar 30	vs CHA	44%	109–112	W 98–94	✗missed	+7
Mar 28	vs GSW	23%	108–120	L 95–111	✓correct	−4
Mar 24	vs PHI	46%	113–115	W 112–99	✗missed	+15
Mar 23	at DET	21%	110–122	L 130–136	✓correct	+6
Mar 21	at MIN	25%	107–117	L 93–134	✓correct	−31
Mar 19	at MIN	25%	107–117	W 119–115	✗missed	+14
Mar 17	vs DET	34%	114–121	L 81–127	✓correct	−39
Mar 15	at SAS	38%	114–118	L 115–119	✓correct	±0
Mar 13	vs ORL	49%	112–113	L 93–113	✓correct	−19
Mar 11	vs LAC	39%	109–114	W 127–120	✗missed	+12
Mar 9	vs MEM	36%	117–123	L 104–107	✓correct	+3
Mar 8	at HOU	29%	111–119	L 117–146	✓correct	−21
Mar 6	vs HOU	44%	114–117	L 97–109	✓correct	−9
Mar 4	at LAL	29%	110–118	L 115–136	✓correct	−13
Mar 2	at UTA	61%	119–114	W 128–121	✓correct	+2
Feb 28	at PHX	33%	117–123	L 108–125	✓correct	−11
Feb 27	at PHX	33%	115–121	W 124–116	✗missed	+14
Feb 25	vs SAS	46%	117–119	W 109–103	✗missed	+8
Feb 23	vs SAS	44%	116–119	W 114–96	✗missed	+21
Feb 21	at DAL	23%	114–125	L 103–111	✓correct	+3
Feb 13	vs SAC	25%	114–125	W 140–133	✗missed	+18
Feb 12	vs SAC	29%	114–123	L 111–119	✓correct	+1
Feb 10	at OKC	11%	112–131	L 101–137	✓correct	−17
Feb 8	at SAC	27%	114–123	L 118–123	✓correct	+4
Feb 5	at DEN	15%	112–128	L 119–144	✓correct	−9
Feb 3	at DEN	21%	113–125	L 113–125	✓correct	±0
Jan 31	vs BOS	41%	112–116	L 116–118	✓correct	+2
Jan 29	vs DAL	41%	114–118	L 136–137	✓correct	+3
Jan 27	at TOR	41%	112–115	L 104–113	✓correct	−6
Jan 25	at CHA	54%	114–112	L 92–123	✗missed	−33
Jan 24	at MEM	23%	112–123	L 126–139	✓correct	−2
Jan 20	vs UTA	62%	115–111	W 123–119	✓correct	±0
Jan 17	vs UTA	59%	113–110	W 136–123	✓correct	+10
Jan 15	vs DAL	46%	113–115	W 119–116	✗missed	+5
Jan 14	at CHI	29%	114–122	W 119–113	✗missed	+14
Jan 12	at BOS	18%	106–120	L 119–120	✓correct	+13
Jan 10	at PHI	23%	105–116	W 123–115	✗missed	+19
Jan 8	vs POR	57%	116–114	L 100–119	✗missed	−21
Jan 7	vs MIN	44%	111–114	L 97–104	✓correct	−4
Jan 5	at WAS	61%	118–113	W 110–98	✓correct	+7
Jan 3	vs WAS	64%	119–114	W 132–120	✓correct	+7
Jan 1	at MIA	25%	106–116	L 108–119	✓correct	−1
Dec 30	vs LAC	29%	112–121	L 113–116	✓correct	+6
Dec 27	vs MEM	25%	111–122	L 124–132	✓correct	+3
Dec 26	vs HOU	27%	110–120	L 111–128	✓correct	−7
Dec 22	vs DEN	25%	115–126	L 129–132	✓correct	+8
Dec 21	vs NYK	27%	108–118	L 93–104	✓correct	−1
Dec 19	at HOU	18%	105–119	L 113–133	✓correct	−6
Dec 15	at IND	31%	111–118	L 104–119	✓correct	−8
Dec 12	vs SAC	29%	113–122	L 109–111	✓correct	+7
Dec 8	at SAS	25%	111–121	L 116–121	✓correct	+5
Dec 7	vs OKC	27%	107–117	L 109–119	✓correct	±0
Dec 5	vs PHX	41%	110–114	W 126–124	✗missed	+6
Dec 2	at ATL	31%	110–117	L 112–124	✓correct	−5
Dec 1	at NYK	18%	105–119	L 85–118	✓correct	−19
Nov 29	at MEM	16%	108–123	L 109–120	✓correct	+4
Nov 27	vs TOR	62%	109–105	L 93–119	✗missed	−30
Nov 25	at IND	29%	106–114	L 110–114	✓correct	+4
Nov 22	vs GSW	32%	107–115	L 108–112	✓correct	+4
Nov 20	at CLE	21%	109–121	L 100–128	✓correct	−16
Nov 19	at DAL	18%	104–118	L 91–132	✓correct	−27
Nov 16	vs LAL	29%	108–117	L 99–104	✓correct	+4
Nov 15	vs DEN	41%	110–114	W 101–94	✗missed	+11
Nov 13	at OKC	16%	108–123	L 88–106	✓correct	−3
Nov 11	vs BKN	36%	109–115	L 105–107	✓correct	+4
Nov 8	at ORL	38%	109–113	L 88–115	✓correct	−23
Nov 6	vs CLE	34%	108–115	L 122–131	✓correct	−2
Nov 4	vs POR	64%	113–108	L 100–118	✗missed	−23
Nov 3	vs ATL	69%	118–111	L 111–126	✗missed	−22
Nov 1	vs IND	46%	110–112	W 125–118	✗missed	+9
Oct 30	at GSW	27%	108–117	L 89–104	✓correct	−6
Oct 29	at GSW	36%	111–116	L 106–124	✓correct	−13
Oct 27	at POR	59%	112–108	L 103–125	✗missed	−26
Oct 25	at POR	66%	115–108	W 105–103	✓correct	−5
Oct 23	vs CHI	62%	110–106	W 123–111	✓correct	+8
Apr 29 PO	vs OKC	51%	105–107	L 89–97	✓correct	−6
Apr 27 PO	vs OKC	59%	110–108	L 85–106	✗missed	−23
Apr 24 PO	at OKC	32%	106–113	L 92–124	✓correct	−25
Apr 21 PO	at OKC	32%	107–114	L 92–94	✓correct	+5
Apr 14	vs LAL	65%	117–112	L 108–124	✗missed	−21
Apr 12	at GSW	43%	110–111	W 114–109	✗missed	+6
Apr 11	at SAC	43%	107–108	W 135–123	✗missed	+13
Apr 9	at POR	61%	114–106	W 110–100	✓correct	+2
Apr 7	at PHX	34%	106–112	W 113–105	✗missed	+14
Apr 5	vs SAS	73%	112–102	L 109–111	✗missed	−12
Apr 3	vs ORL	57%	106–105	L 108–117	✗missed	−10
Apr 1	vs PHX	65%	111–106	L 111–124	✗missed	−18
Mar 30	vs BOS	43%	102–108	L 92–104	✓correct	−6
Mar 28	vs MIL	65%	112–107	W 107–100	✓correct	+2
Mar 26	vs OKC	63%	113–109	L 112–119	✗missed	−11
Mar 24	at DET	71%	119–106	W 114–101	✓correct	±0
Mar 22	at MIA	41%	106–108	W 111–88	✗missed	+25
Mar 21	at ORL	43%	107–108	L 106–121	✓correct	−14
Mar 19	at BKN	47%	112–111	W 104–91	✓correct	+12
Mar 16	vs POR	78%	114–101	W 126–107	✓correct	+6
Mar 15	vs LAC	65%	113–108	W 112–104	✓correct	+3
Mar 13	vs CLE	68%	114–107	L 95–116	✗missed	−28
Mar 10	at ATL	53%	112–108	W 116–103	✓correct	+9
Mar 8	at PHI	51%	111–108	W 103–95	✓correct	+5
Mar 5	at TOR	61%	120–112	W 139–98	✓correct	+33
Mar 1	vs IND	68%	117–110	W 129–102	✓correct	+20
Feb 28	at IND	41%	116–118	L 114–123	✓correct	−7
Feb 27	at NYK	39%	109–112	W 115–92	✗missed	+26
Feb 25	vs CHI	61%	112–109	L 106–114	✗missed	−11
Feb 23	vs MIA	65%	113–108	L 95–106	✗missed	−16
Feb 22	vs HOU	67%	117–111	W 127–105	✓correct	+16
Feb 14	vs WAS	82%	121–105	W 133–126	✓correct	−9
Feb 12	at MEM	59%	117–110	W 96–87	✓correct	+2
Feb 10	at POR	65%	122–112	W 93–84	✓correct	−1
Feb 9	at LAL	47%	117–116	L 122–139	✗missed	−18
Feb 7	at LAC	35%	112–117	W 117–106	✗missed	+16
Feb 5	vs TOR	72%	121–112	W 138–100	✓correct	+29
Feb 2	at SAS	57%	119–113	W 114–113	✓correct	−5
Jan 31	at HOU	51%	118–115	W 110–99	✓correct	+8
Jan 29	at BOS	41%	114–116	L 112–118	✓correct	−4
Jan 27	at MIL	39%	114–117	L 117–141	✓correct	−21
Jan 26	vs OKC	57%	115–114	L 83–107	✗missed	−25
Jan 23	vs UTA	61%	117–114	W 153–124	✓correct	+26
Jan 19	vs PHX	61%	111–108	L 109–123	✗missed	−17
Jan 17	vs CHA	82%	118–102	W 132–112	✓correct	+4
Jan 15	at DAL	59%	118–111	L 120–125	✗missed	−12
Jan 13	at DAL	43%	113–114	W 118–108	✗missed	+11
Jan 12	at DEN	39%	109–112	L 113–125	✓correct	−9
Jan 10	at GSW	51%	117–114	W 141–105	✓correct	+33
Jan 7	at SAC	41%	114–116	W 133–100	✗missed	+35
Jan 5	vs LAC	57%	112–111	L 95–111	✗missed	−17
Jan 3	at MIN	34%	109–115	W 117–106	✗missed	+17
Jan 2	vs BKN	67%	118–112	W 112–85	✓correct	+21
Dec 31	vs LAL	72%	122–113	W 129–109	✓correct	+11
Dec 28	vs UTA	72%	121–112	W 112–105	✓correct	−2
Dec 26	vs MEM	67%	119–113	L 115–116	✗missed	−7
Dec 23	vs HOU	67%	119–113	L 104–106	✗missed	−8
Dec 21	at CLE	47%	115–114	W 123–104	✓correct	+18
Dec 19	vs MEM	70%	120–112	L 113–115	✗missed	−10
Dec 17	at SAS	55%	120–115	W 146–110	✓correct	+31
Dec 15	at CHA	61%	120–112	W 112–107	✓correct	−3
Dec 13	at WAS	61%	123–115	W 142–122	✓correct	+12
Dec 11	vs MIN	61%	116–113	W 121–107	✓correct	+11
Dec 7	at LAL	39%	112–115	L 89–133	✓correct	−41
Dec 4	at SAC	39%	116–119	W 127–117	✗missed	+13
Dec 2	at CHI	53%	112–108	L 118–124	✗missed	−10
Dec 1	vs SAS	79%	125–111	W 121–106	✓correct	+1
Nov 29	vs PHI	51%	111–113	W 124–114	✗missed	+12
Nov 27	at UTA	49%	117–115	L 112–114	✗missed	−4
Nov 25	at UTA	59%	123–116	L 100–105	✗missed	−12
Nov 24	at LAC	41%	113–115	W 116–106	✗missed	+12
Nov 22	vs SAC	57%	117–116	W 117–112	✓correct	+4
Nov 20	vs SAC	51%	114–116	W 129–93	✗missed	+38
Nov 18	vs MIN	45%	112–117	L 120–121	✓correct	+4
Nov 17	vs DEN	49%	111–114	W 115–110	✗missed	+8
Nov 14	vs DAL	47%	113–117	W 131–110	✗missed	+25
Nov 12	vs DAL	57%	115–114	L 124–136	✗missed	−13
Nov 10	at HOU	43%	112–113	L 101–104	✓correct	−2
Nov 8	at MIN	28%	108–117	L 101–122	✓correct	−12
Nov 6	at DEN	34%	108–114	L 116–134	✓correct	−12
Nov 4	vs ATL	63%	118–114	L 105–123	✗missed	−22
Nov 2	vs DET	65%	114–109	W 125–116	✓correct	+4
Nov 1	at OKC	35%	112–117	W 110–106	✗missed	+9
Oct 30	vs GSW	65%	115–110	L 102–130	✗missed	−33
Oct 28	vs NYK	63%	113–109	W 96–87	✓correct	+5
Oct 25	at MEM	35%	110–115	W 111–104	✗missed	+12
Apr 9	at MIN	53%	115–114	L 108–113	✗missed	−6
Apr 7	vs NYK	63%	119–114	W 113–105	✓correct	+3
Apr 5	vs MEM	47%	114–115	W 138–131	✗missed	+8
Apr 4	vs SAC	55%	117–115	L 103–121	✗missed	−20
Apr 1	vs LAC	63%	116–111	W 122–114	✓correct	+3
Mar 30	at DEN	32%	109–116	W 107–88	✗missed	+26
Mar 28	at GSW	40%	114–118	L 109–120	✓correct	−7
Mar 27	at POR	80%	121–108	W 124–90	✓correct	+21
Mar 25	at LAC	37%	109–114	W 131–110	✗missed	+26
Mar 23	vs CHA	68%	115–108	W 115–96	✓correct	+12
Mar 21	vs SAS	76%	123–112	W 119–84	✓correct	+24
Mar 19	at HOU	58%	116–113	W 117–107	✓correct	+7
Mar 17	at HOU	60%	119–115	L 112–114	✗missed	−6
Mar 14	vs LAL	45%	113–115	L 108–123	✓correct	−13
Mar 12	vs POR	55%	115–113	W 127–110	✓correct	+15
Mar 11	vs OKC	47%	118–119	L 96–110	✓correct	−13
Mar 8	vs DAL	45%	115–117	W 113–106	✗missed	+9
Mar 6	at SAC	55%	115–113	L 108–123	✗missed	−17
Mar 3	at GSW	40%	112–116	L 99–108	✓correct	−5
Mar 1	at POR	53%	119–118	W 121–110	✓correct	+10
Feb 27	vs ORL	45%	112–114	L 93–101	✓correct	−6
Feb 25	at NYK	35%	109–115	L 106–128	✓correct	−16
Feb 23	at TOR	42%	114–117	L 110–115	✓correct	−2
Feb 15	at LAL	60%	120–116	L 102–120	✗missed	−22
Feb 13	at OKC	42%	117–120	W 103–100	✗missed	+6
Feb 10	vs CLE	47%	110–111	L 107–118	✓correct	−10
Feb 7	vs ATL	45%	116–118	W 116–107	✗missed	+11
Feb 5	vs SAC	28%	109–118	W 136–104	✗missed	+41
Feb 4	vs LAL	37%	112–117	W 131–126	✗missed	+10
Feb 2	at DAL	45%	110–112	L 106–111	✓correct	−3
Jan 31	at DEN	30%	108–116	L 113–122	✓correct	−1
Jan 29	at MIL	28%	110–119	L 110–135	✓correct	−16
Jan 28	vs WAS	53%	116–115	L 103–113	✗missed	−11
Jan 25	vs MIN	55%	117–115	L 102–111	✗missed	−11
Jan 24	vs DEN	40%	112–116	L 98–99	✓correct	+3
Jan 22	at MIA	42%	110–113	L 96–100	✓correct	−1
Jan 20	at ORL	63%	120–115	L 110–123	✗missed	−18
Jan 18	vs MIA	47%	109–110	L 98–124	✓correct	−25
Jan 16	at CLE	42%	111–114	L 103–113	✓correct	−7
Jan 13	at DET	63%	120–115	W 116–110	✓correct	+1
Jan 11	at BOS	22%	107–119	L 114–125	✓correct	+1
Jan 9	at WAS	55%	114–112	W 132–112	✓correct	+18
Jan 7	at DAL	47%	111–112	L 117–127	✓correct	−9
Jan 6	vs BKN	60%	115–111	L 102–108	✗missed	−10
Jan 4	vs HOU	76%	116–105	W 119–108	✓correct	±0
Jan 2	at PHI	42%	114–117	L 111–120	✓correct	−6
Dec 31	at MEM	37%	112–117	L 101–116	✓correct	−10
Dec 30	vs PHI	58%	116–113	W 127–116	✓correct	+8
Dec 28	vs MIN	68%	117–110	W 119–118	✓correct	−6
Dec 26	vs IND	65%	116–110	W 113–93	✓correct	+14
Dec 23	at OKC	63%	117–112	W 128–125	✓correct	−2
Dec 22	vs SAS	81%	118–104	W 126–117	✓correct	−5
Dec 19	vs MIL	60%	116–112	L 119–128	✗missed	−13
Dec 17	at PHX	47%	111–112	L 114–118	✓correct	−3
Dec 15	at UTA	47%	113–114	L 129–132	✓correct	−2
Dec 13	at UTA	45%	115–117	L 100–121	✓correct	−19
Dec 11	vs PHX	68%	113–106	W 129–124	✓correct	−2
Dec 9	vs PHX	60%	114–110	W 128–117	✓correct	+7
Dec 7	vs DET	80%	120–107	W 104–98	✓correct	−7
Dec 4	vs DEN	70%	114–106	W 121–106	✓correct	+7
Dec 2	at SAS	72%	120–111	W 117–99	✓correct	+9
Nov 30	vs TOR	53%	112–111	W 126–108	✓correct	+17
Nov 28	vs OKC	70%	119–111	W 105–101	✓correct	−4
Nov 25	at MEM	53%	113–112	L 111–132	✗missed	−22
Nov 23	at SAS	68%	118–111	W 129–110	✓correct	+12
Nov 21	vs GSW	60%	117–113	W 128–83	✓correct	+41
Nov 18	vs BOS	53%	114–113	L 109–117	✗missed	−9
Nov 16	vs CHI	58%	113–110	W 124–110	✓correct	+11
Nov 15	vs MEM	53%	110–109	W 113–102	✓correct	+10
Nov 12	vs HOU	72%	116–107	W 119–106	✓correct	+4
Nov 10	vs POR	63%	113–108	L 95–106	✗missed	−16
Nov 9	at CHI	63%	115–110	W 115–111	✓correct	−1
Nov 7	at IND	70%	119–111	L 122–129	✗missed	−15
Nov 5	at ATL	58%	111–108	L 121–124	✗missed	−6
Nov 4	vs GSW	63%	118–113	W 114–105	✓correct	+4
Nov 2	at LAL	68%	116–109	L 117–120	✗missed	−10
Oct 30	at LAC	55%	112–110	W 112–91	✓correct	+19
Oct 28	at PHX	35%	105–111	L 111–124	✓correct	−7
Oct 25	vs DAL	32%	104–111	W 113–111	✗missed	+9
Oct 23	vs UTA	45%	107–109	L 121–122	✓correct	+1
Oct 21	at CHA	45%	113–115	W 124–112	✗missed	+14
Oct 19	at BKN	42%	110–113	W 130–108	✗missed	+25

Surprise games

All NOP surprises

Across every graded season. The percentage is the pregame chance the forecast gave the team that won.

Most unexpected NOP wins

20%NOP beat SAS104–95Jan 25, 2025-26 · forecast SAS121–109 · missed margin by 21
20%NOP beat HOU133–128Dec 18, 2025-26 · forecast HOU125–113 · missed margin by 17
23%NOP beat PHI123–115Jan 10, 2024-25 · forecast PHI116–105 · missed margin by 19
24%NOP beat MIN119–115Feb 6, 2025-26 · forecast MIN122–112 · missed margin by 14
25%NOP beat MIN119–115Mar 19, 2024-25 · forecast MIN117–107 · missed margin by 14

Most unexpected NOP losses

27%SAS beat NOP111–109Apr 5, 2023-24 · forecast NOP112–102 · missed margin by 12
30%MEM beat NOP115–113Dec 19, 2023-24 · forecast NOP120–112 · missed margin by 10
30%IND beat NOP129–122Nov 7, 2022-23 · forecast NOP119–111 · missed margin by 15
31%ATL beat NOP126–111Nov 3, 2024-25 · forecast NOP118–111 · missed margin by 22
32%CLE beat NOP116–95Mar 13, 2023-24 · forecast NOP114–107 · missed margin by 28

Largest margin misses

61%LAL beat NOP133–89Dec 7, 2023-24 · forecast LAL115–112 · missed margin by 41
28%NOP beat SAC136–104Feb 5, 2022-23 · forecast SAC118–109 · missed margin by 41
60%NOP beat GSW128–83Nov 21, 2022-23 · forecast NOP117–113 · missed margin by 41
66%DET beat NOP127–81Mar 17, 2024-25 · forecast DET121–114 · missed margin by 39
51%NOP beat SAC129–93Nov 20, 2023-24 · forecast SAC116–114 · missed margin by 38

Definitions

Expected wins: The sum of the team's pregame win probabilities over the games in the sample (home: the stored home win probability; road: one minus it).
Wins vs expectation: Actual wins minus expected wins. It describes results relative to the forecasts, not why they differed.
Margin error: The team's actual margin minus its forecast margin, in points. Positive means the team did better than forecast.
Error variability: The sample standard deviation of margin errors. Higher means the forecasts for this team's games were less consistent.
Winner picked: The share of the team's games in which the forecast winner won, whichever team that was. Teams play different mixes of close and lopsided games, so this alone is not a fair measure of how hard a team is to forecast.
Average margin miss: The mean absolute margin error. This is the headline measure of how hard a team's games were for this model to forecast.
Average margin error: The mean signed margin error. Consistently positive means the model underrated the team in this sample; negative, overrated.
Brier score: The mean squared difference between the team's pregame win probability and the result (1 for a win, 0 for a loss). It rewards confident correct forecasts and penalises confident wrong ones.
Intervals and samples: Ranges are 90% bootstrap intervals (1,000 resamples of the team's games). Under 20 games no ranking is shown; 20 to 59 games is exploratory; 60 or more is roughly a full season.

More on how forecasts are made and tested: Methodology.

Upcoming

Recent results

Predictability

2026-27 (in progress)

2025-26

2024-25

2023-24

2022-23

2022-23 to 2026-27

Surprise games

Most unexpected NOP wins

Most unexpected NOP losses

Largest margin misses

Recent results the forecast got wrong

Definitions