2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks

Wednesday, October 22, 2025 · tip-off 9:30 PM ET

SAS 0–0@DAL 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
SAS San Antonio Spurs	116	125	+9
DAL Dallas Mavericks (home)	118	92	−26

Forecast: Dallas Mavericks to win, 56% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	SAS	DAL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1438	1449
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+81
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−2.6	−1.2
Games played this season	0	0
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	110.7	106.8
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	118.8	116.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	100.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	5	5
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAS1438DAL1449

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAS1438

Ended last season at 1417 → started this one at 1438
No games played yet this season.

DAL1449

Ended last season at 1432 → started this one at 1449
No games played yet this season.

Season scoring marginSAS−2.6DAL−1.2

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAS−2.6

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (−2.6) = −2.6

DAL−1.2

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (−1.2) = −1.2

Offensive rating, last 10SAS110.7DAL106.8

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25: 113.7).

SAS110.7scored, −2.9 vs league

Factor	SAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.1%	54.3%	+1.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.3%	12.0%	−0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	20.3%	25.3%	−2.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.169	0.194	−0.7
Everything else			−0.7

DAL106.8scored, −6.8 vs league

Factor	DAL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.1%	54.3%	−0.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.3%	12.0%	−1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	17.6%	25.3%	−3.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.216	0.194	+0.7
Everything else			−1.8

Defensive rating, last 10SAS118.8DAL116.0

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25: 113.7).

SAS118.8allowed, +5.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.6%	54.3%	−3.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.8%	12.0%	−1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.0%	25.3%	−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.159	0.194	+1.0
Everything else			−0.6

DAL116.0allowed, +2.3 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.6%	54.3%	−0.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.3%	12.0%	−2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	29.6%	25.3%	−2.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.166	0.194	+0.8
Everything else			+1.7

Pace, last 10average 100.5

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAS 100.5 and DAL 100.5 → average 100.5 (league 2024-25: 99.4)

Rotation points missingSAS0.0DAL0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-10-22 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

DAL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-10-22 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestSAS5 daysDAL5 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAS5days

Last played Apr 13 against TOR (192 days, capped at 5).

DAL5days

Last played Apr 13 against MEM (192 days, capped at 5).

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 13	TOR	125–118	43-84	11-32	28-32	12	9	119.0	114.6	104.0
Apr 11	@PHX	98–117	39-90	13-34	7-10	14	5	100.0	119.4	98.0
Apr 9	@GSW	114–111	39-81	18-46	18-21	13	10	122.6	116.8	94.0
Apr 8	@LAC	117–122	45-85	17-42	10-16	16	7	117.0	122.0	100.0
Apr 6	@POR	109–120	41-95	11-34	16-21	18	13	101.9	112.1	107.0
Apr 4	CLE	113–114	41-94	16-48	15-19	11	9	110.8	111.8	102.0
Apr 2	@DEN	113–106	43-97	17-46	10-13	10	8	107.6	101.0	105.0
Apr 1	ORL	105–116	40-81	13-32	12-17	17	9	111.7	122.1	94.5
Mar 30	GSW	106–148	40-84	16-42	10-16	21	7	101.0	141.0	105.0
Mar 29	BOS	111–121	38-87	14-40	21-27	4	10	115.6	127.4	95.5

DAL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 13	@MEM	97–132	38-87	5-28	16-22	18	8	95.1	129.4	102.0
Apr 11	TOR	124–102	49-89	15-34	11-17	17	12	119.2	98.1	104.0
Apr 9	LAL	97–112	36-72	9-26	16-23	19	9	103.2	117.9	94.5
Apr 5	@LAC	104–135	34-78	7-27	29-38	15	5	104.0	135.0	100.0
Apr 4	@LAC	91–114	35-77	4-20	17-26	17	5	91.9	115.2	99.0
Apr 2	ATL	120–118	44-83	15-33	17-21	13	4	116.5	114.6	103.0
Mar 31	BKN	109–113	41-86	10-30	17-29	8	9	114.7	117.7	95.5
Mar 29	@CHI	120–119	47-101	9-30	17-21	6	4	110.1	110.2	108.5
Mar 27	@ORL	101–92	37-78	11-22	16-22	14	4	104.1	94.8	97.0
Mar 25	@NYK	113–128	43-80	6-19	21-25	16	3	109.7	126.7	102.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

44%

pregame chance the forecast gave SAS, the winner

the forecast favored DAL

35 pts

margin miss

forecast +2, actual −33 for DAL

257th

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

22nd

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 0.82 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	SAS	DAL
Final score	125	92
Field goals	50–87 · 57.5%	31–83 · 37.3%
Three-pointers	8–20 · 40.0%	9–21 · 42.9%
Free throws	17–28 · 60.7%	21–26 · 80.8%
Rebounds	50	37
Assists	24	20
Turnovers	14	16
Steals	10	5
Blocks	5	3

How the model does with these teams over time: San Antonio Spurs · Dallas Mavericks

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (DAL)	+2	−33	−35
Total points	234	217	−17
SAS points	116	125	+9
DAL points	118	92	−26

Recent form before this game