2025-26 · Regular Season · Final
Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs
Sunday, April 12, 2026 · tip-off 8:30 PM ET
DEN 3–4@SAS 3–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN Denver Nuggets | 109 | 128 | +19 |
| SAS San Antonio Spurs (home) | 127 | 118 | −9 |
Forecast: San Antonio Spurs to win, 89% win probability, projected margin 18.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | DEN | SAS |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1645 | 1754 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +180 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | +5.1 | +8.4 |
| Games played this season | 81 | 82 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 128.0 | 124.2 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 116.6 | 107.5 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 100.5 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 91.2 | 5.9 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingDEN1645SAS1754
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
DEN1645
- Ended last season at 1620 → started this one at 1590
- First 71 games: −4.2
- Last 10 games: +58.7
- WPOR128–112+7.0
- W@PHX125–123+4.8
- WDAL142–135+1.9
- WUTA135–129+1.1
- WGSW116–93+7.2
- W@UTA130–117+3.6
- WSAS136–134+6.2
- WPOR137–132+3.3
- WMEM136–119+2.2
- WOKC127–107+21.4
SAS1754
- Ended last season at 1417 → started this one at 1438
- First 72 games: +277.5
- Last 10 games: +39.1
- W@MIA136–111+12.7
- W@MEM123–98+4.7
- W@MIL127–95+5.2
- WCHI129–114+1.5
- W@GSW127–113+5.0
- W@LAC118–99+9.6
- L@DEN134–136−6.2
- WPHI115–102+2.8
- WPOR112–101+2.5
- WDAL139–120+1.3
Season scoring marginDEN+5.1SAS+8.4
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
DEN+5.1
Scores 122.0, allows 116.9 over 81 games: +5.1 a game.
SAS+8.4
Scores 119.7, allows 111.3 over 82 games: +8.4 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10DEN128.0SAS124.2
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).
DEN128.0scored, +13.2 vs league
| Factor | DEN | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 60.9% | 54.7% | +9.5 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 9.9% | 12.2% | +3.2 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 26.6% | 26.0% | +0.3 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.203 | 0.209 | −0.2 | |
| Everything else | +0.4 |
SAS124.2scored, +9.5 vs league
| Factor | SAS | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 57.9% | 54.7% | +4.8 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.7% | 12.2% | +2.1 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 31.2% | 26.0% | +2.3 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.204 | 0.209 | −0.2 | |
| Everything else | +0.3 |
Defensive rating, last 10DEN116.6SAS107.5
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).
DEN116.6allowed, +1.9 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 54.5% | 54.7% | +0.2 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 8.5% | 12.2% | −5.3 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 21.3% | 26.0% | +2.1 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.192 | 0.209 | +0.5 | |
| Everything else | +0.6 |
SAS107.5allowed, −7.3 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 51.2% | 54.7% | +5.2 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.4% | 12.2% | −2.6 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 17.9% | 26.0% | +3.6 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.157 | 0.209 | +1.5 | |
| Everything else | −0.4 |
Pace, last 10average 100.5
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
DEN 100.6 and SAS 100.3 → average 100.5 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.2)
Rotation points missingDEN91.2SAS5.9
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
DEN91.2pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | 27.2 | 37.8 | 9 |
| Cameron Johnson | 14.9 | 30.7 | 9 |
| Aaron Gordon | 13.6 | 29.7 | 7 |
| Christian Braun | 13.2 | 30.8 | 9 |
| Peyton Watson | 11.6 | 19.2 | 5 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 10.7 | 23.3 | 10 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-04-12 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.
SAS5.9pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Kornet | 5.9 | 20.6 | 8 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-04-12 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.
RestDEN2 daysSAS2 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
DEN2days
Last played Apr 10 against OKC.
SAS2days
Last played Apr 10 against DAL.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
DEN
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10 | OKC | 127–107 | 47-93 | 21-43 | 12-13 | 16 | 10 | 124.5 | 103.9 | 102.5 |
| Apr 8 | MEM | 136–119 | 53-90 | 14-36 | 16-21 | 12 | 9 | 136.0 | 119.0 | 100.0 |
| Apr 6 | POR | 137–132 | 52-101 | 12-38 | 21-24 | 12 | 17 | 129.2 | 125.7 | 95.5 |
| Apr 4 | SAS | 136–134 | 49-101 | 19-46 | 19-22 | 6 | 8 | 127.1 | 122.9 | 97.8 |
| Apr 1 | @UTA | 130–117 | 44-91 | 16-39 | 26-31 | 13 | 12 | 121.5 | 109.3 | 107.0 |
| Mar 29 | GSW | 116–93 | 43-86 | 19-40 | 11-12 | 11 | 6 | 124.7 | 100.0 | 93.0 |
| Mar 27 | UTA | 135–129 | 45-95 | 19-48 | 26-32 | 14 | 15 | 128.6 | 121.7 | 105.5 |
| Mar 25 | DAL | 142–135 | 50-89 | 19-38 | 23-29 | 9 | 5 | 134.0 | 129.8 | 105.0 |
| Mar 24 | @PHX | 125–123 | 45-88 | 13-32 | 22-30 | 9 | 14 | 127.6 | 124.2 | 98.5 |
| Mar 22 | POR | 128–112 | 49-90 | 18-46 | 12-13 | 11 | 5 | 126.7 | 109.8 | 101.5 |
SAS
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10 | DAL | 139–120 | 50-92 | 13-32 | 26-27 | 10 | 13 | 139.0 | 121.2 | 99.5 |
| Apr 8 | POR | 112–101 | 43-88 | 11-29 | 15-19 | 15 | 11 | 110.9 | 100.0 | 101.0 |
| Apr 6 | PHI | 115–102 | 44-89 | 11-32 | 16-22 | 9 | 9 | 118.6 | 105.2 | 97.0 |
| Apr 4 | @DEN | 134–136 | 47-101 | 15-45 | 25-27 | 10 | 12 | 122.9 | 127.1 | 97.8 |
| Apr 2 | @LAC | 118–99 | 47-88 | 12-31 | 12-14 | 14 | 10 | 120.4 | 100.0 | 98.5 |
| Apr 1 | @GSW | 127–113 | 44-93 | 15-47 | 24-30 | 14 | 13 | 125.7 | 111.9 | 101.0 |
| Mar 30 | CHI | 129–114 | 49-96 | 14-34 | 17-24 | 11 | 16 | 125.2 | 111.8 | 102.5 |
| Mar 28 | @MIL | 127–95 | 49-89 | 14-35 | 15-20 | 11 | 9 | 129.6 | 97.9 | 97.5 |
| Mar 25 | @MEM | 123–98 | 46-89 | 16-46 | 15-22 | 14 | 13 | 123.0 | 96.1 | 101.0 |
| Mar 23 | @MIA | 136–111 | 48-101 | 15-43 | 25-28 | 15 | 17 | 127.1 | 103.7 | 107.0 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2025-26 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | DEN | SAS |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 128 | 118 |
| Field goals | 50–100 · 50.0% | 45–99 · 45.5% |
| Three-pointers | 11–30 · 36.7% | 15–47 · 31.9% |
| Free throws | 17–22 · 77.3% | 13–18 · 72.2% |
| Rebounds | 58 | 45 |
| Assists | 30 | 27 |
| Turnovers | 10 | 9 |
| Steals | 4 | 5 |
| Blocks | 5 | 5 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Denver Nuggets · San Antonio Spurs
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (SAS) | +18 | −10 | −28 |
| Total points | 236 | 246 | +10 |
| DEN points | 109 | 128 | +19 |
| SAS points | 127 | 118 | −9 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4 2025-26 | SAS at DEN | SAS 134 – 136 DEN |
| Mar 12 2025-26 | DEN at SAS | DEN 136 – 131 SAS |
| Nov 28 2025-26 | SAS at DEN | SAS 139 – 136 DEN |
| Apr 2 2024-25 | SAS at DEN | SAS 113 – 106 DEN |
| Jan 4 2024-25 | DEN at SAS | DEN 122 – 111 SAS |