2025-26 · Playoffs · Final

San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder

Monday, May 18, 2026 · tip-off 8:30 PM ET

SAS 3–4@OKC 3–7 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
SAS San Antonio Spurs	101	122	+21
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder (home)	111	115	+4

Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 76% win probability, projected margin 10.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	SAS	OKC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1768	1759
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+62
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+8.9	+11.8
Games played this season	94	89
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	117.2	121.9
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	102.4	113.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	98.6
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	3	5
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No
Playoff series state	0 home series wins

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAS1768OKC1759

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAS1768

Ended last season at 1417 → started this one at 1438
First 84 games: +302.1
Last 10 games: +28.0

LPOR103–106−12.2
W@POR120–108+7.0
W@POR114–93+9.6
WPOR114–95+3.9
LMIN102–104−9.3
WMIN133–95+10.3
W@MIN115–108+5.9
L@MIN109–114−9.8
WMIN126–97+7.9
W@MIN139–109+14.7

OKC1759

Ended last season at 1760 → started this one at 1695
First 79 games: +77.9
Last 10 games: −14.0

L@DEN107–127−21.4
LPHX103–135−52.7
WPHX119–84+9.6
WPHX120–107+4.4
W@PHX121–109+7.8
W@PHX131–122+6.1
WLAL108–90+7.0
WLAL125–107+6.5
W@LAL131–108+13.9
W@LAL115–110+4.8

Season scoring marginSAS+8.9OKC+11.8

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAS+8.9

Scores 119.4, allows 110.5 over 94 games: +8.9 a game.

OKC+11.8

Scores 119.3, allows 107.6 over 89 games: +11.8 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10SAS117.2OKC121.9

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).

SAS117.2scored, +2.6 vs league

Factor	SAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.3%	54.6%	+2.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.2%	12.2%	−0.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.2%	26.1%	+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.241	0.210	+0.9
Everything else			−1.4

OKC121.9scored, +7.3 vs league

Factor	OKC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.5%	54.6%	+4.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.0%	12.2%	+3.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.9%	26.1%	+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.181	0.210	−0.8
Everything else			−0.4

Defensive rating, last 10SAS102.4OKC113.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).

SAS102.4allowed, −12.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	46.5%	54.6%	+12.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.4%	12.2%	−1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.6%	26.1%	+0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.200	0.210	+0.3
Everything else			+0.7

OKC113.5allowed, −1.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.2%	54.6%	−0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.6%	12.2%	+3.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.9%	26.1%	−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.178	0.210	+0.9
Everything else			−1.4

Pace, last 10average 98.6

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAS 100.4 and OKC 96.8 → average 98.6 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingSAS0.0OKC0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-05-18 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

OKC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-05-18 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestSAS3 daysOKC5 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAS3days

Last played May 15 against MIN.

OKC5days

Last played May 11 against LAL (7 days, capped at 5).

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
May 15	@MIN	139–109	49-88	18-38	23-27	15	12	133.7	103.8	104.5
May 12	MIN	126–97	47-89	11-32	21-27	15	11	122.3	94.2	103.0
May 10	@MIN	109–114	41-86	6-26	21-27	14	13	107.9	115.2	100.0
May 8	@MIN	115–108	39-85	12-33	25-33	9	8	113.9	106.9	101.0
May 6	MIN	133–95	45-90	16-39	27-33	15	13	122.0	86.4	109.5
May 4	MIN	102–104	39-87	10-36	14-18	13	13	106.3	108.3	96.0
Apr 28	POR	114–95	41-75	12-30	20-29	14	7	121.3	99.0	95.0
Apr 26	@POR	114–93	43-87	14-33	14-17	12	9	116.3	93.0	99.0
Apr 24	@POR	120–108	41-87	16-33	22-28	13	14	122.4	109.1	98.5
Apr 21	POR	103–106	38-86	7-24	20-28	16	12	106.2	108.2	97.5

OKC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
May 11	@LAL	115–110	42-81	11-31	20-24	11	6	117.3	112.2	98.0
May 9	@LAL	131–108	53-94	17-38	8-10	9	12	140.9	117.4	92.5
May 7	LAL	125–107	45-81	14-36	21-26	12	9	127.6	111.5	97.0
May 5	LAL	108–90	42-85	13-30	11-12	14	9	116.1	95.7	93.5
Apr 27	@PHX	131–122	44-82	17-34	26-30	16	13	136.5	125.8	96.5
Apr 25	@PHX	121–109	45-91	12-37	19-21	7	8	122.2	111.2	98.5
Apr 22	PHX	120–107	43-91	14-40	20-25	10	12	120.0	108.1	99.5
Apr 19	PHX	119–84	42-93	14-46	21-23	6	19	129.3	90.3	92.5
Apr 12	PHX	103–135	41-95	18-46	3-9	10	8	105.1	137.8	98.0
Apr 10	@DEN	107–127	42-99	14-44	9-12	13	15	103.9	124.5	102.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

24%

pregame chance the forecast gave SAS, the winner

the forecast favored OKC

17 pts

margin miss

forecast +10, actual −7 for OKC

45th

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

292nd

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 1.42 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	SAS	OKC
Final score	122	115
Field goals	41–96 · 42.7%	41–101 · 40.6%
Three-pointers	13–43 · 30.2%	17–45 · 37.8%
Free throws	27–29 · 93.1%	16–19 · 84.2%
Rebounds	61	40
Assists	25	25
Turnovers	21	14
Steals	11	14
Blocks	7	8

How the model does with these teams over time: San Antonio Spurs · Oklahoma City Thunder

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (OKC)	+10	−7	−17
Total points	212	237	+25
SAS points	101	122	+21
OKC points	111	115	+4

Recent form before this game