2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

San Antonio Spurs at Sacramento Kings

Sunday, April 2, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

SAS 5–3@SAC 4–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
SAS San Antonio Spurs	103	142	+39
SAC Sacramento Kings (home)	124	134	+10

Forecast: Sacramento Kings to win, 90% win probability, projected margin 21.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	SAS	SAC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1276	1576
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+370
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−10.6	+3.2
Games played this season	77	77
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	108.0	121.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	122.3	115.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	101.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	58.6	0.0
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAS1276SAC1576

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAS1276

Ended last season at 1486 → started this one at 1489
First 67 games: −207.9
Last 10 games: −5.4

WORL132–114+21.4
LDAL128–137−6.2
LMEM120–126−3.0
WATL126–118+14.0
L@NOP84–119−9.4
L@MIL94–130−3.3
L@WAS124–136−4.2
L@BOS93–137−3.6
LUTA117–128−8.5
L@GSW115–130−2.6

SAC1576

Ended last season at 1383 → started this one at 1412
First 67 games: +141.0
Last 10 games: +23.2

W@CHI117–114+6.3
W@BKN101–96+7.8
W@WAS132–118+12.1
L@UTA120–128−10.8
LBOS109–132−19.7
WPHX135–127+6.5
WUTA121–113+4.0
LMIN115–119−8.8
W@POR120–80+16.2
W@POR138–114+9.6

Season scoring marginSAS−10.6SAC+3.2

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAS−10.6

Scores 112.1, allows 122.7 over 77 games: −10.6 a game.

SAC+3.2

Scores 121.2, allows 118.0 over 77 games: +3.2 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10SAS108.0SAC121.3

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.1).

SAS108.0scored, −6.1 vs league

Factor	SAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.5%	54.7%	−3.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.2%	12.0%	+1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.5%	23.8%	−1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.148	0.212	−1.8
Everything else			−1.1

SAC121.3scored, +7.1 vs league

Factor	SAC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.8%	54.7%	+4.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	9.4%	12.0%	+3.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.3%	23.8%	−1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.231	0.212	+0.6
Everything else			−0.8

Defensive rating, last 10SAS122.3SAC115.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.1).

SAS122.3allowed, +8.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	59.7%	54.7%	−7.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.8%	12.0%	−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.1%	23.8%	−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.196	0.212	+0.5
Everything else			−0.5

SAC115.5allowed, +1.3 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.1%	54.7%	+0.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.0%	12.0%	−2.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.6%	23.8%	+1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.199	0.212	+0.4
Everything else			−0.6

Pace, last 10average 101.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAS 102.7 and SAC 99.3 → average 101.0 (league 2022-23 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingSAS58.6SAC0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAS58.6pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Keldon Johnson	25.8	34.0	5
Devin Vassell	17.8	31.1	5
Jeremy Sochan	15.0	21.0	3

Source: official injury report, 2023-04-02 17:30 ET. 13 rotation players.

SAC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-04-02 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestSAS2 daysSAC2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAS2days

Last played Mar 31 against GSW.

SAC2days

Last played Mar 31 against POR.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 31	@GSW	115–130	42-91	15-38	16-23	13	14	115.0	131.3	99.5
Mar 29	UTA	117–128	45-95	10-35	17-21	15	9	108.3	119.6	107.5
Mar 26	@BOS	93–137	36-97	8-36	13-18	10	3	85.3	128.0	108.0
Mar 24	@WAS	124–136	51-101	13-38	9-15	5	11	124.0	138.8	99.0
Mar 22	@MIL	94–130	36-93	9-39	13-20	19	8	84.7	118.2	110.5
Mar 21	@NOP	84–119	30-87	13-41	11-19	14	10	84.0	119.0	100.0
Mar 19	ATL	126–118	51-94	14-28	10-16	12	10	124.8	118.0	100.5
Mar 17	MEM	120–126	39-98	20-52	22-29	19	16	107.1	112.5	101.4
Mar 15	DAL	128–137	49-107	15-34	15-26	10	16	116.4	124.5	99.6
Mar 14	ORL	132–114	48-85	22-41	14-18	14	7	130.7	112.9	101.0

SAC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 31	@POR	138–114	54-88	19-39	11-15	13	8	135.3	114.0	101.0
Mar 29	@POR	120–80	42-92	18-48	18-24	8	10	116.5	77.7	103.0
Mar 27	MIN	115–119	39-84	5-27	32-40	10	12	119.8	124.0	96.0
Mar 25	UTA	121–113	44-95	16-43	17-21	8	14	121.0	113.0	100.0
Mar 24	PHX	135–127	47-89	13-39	28-32	4	5	139.2	128.3	98.0
Mar 21	BOS	109–132	39-81	17-44	14-21	14	10	114.7	140.4	94.5
Mar 20	@UTA	120–128	41-97	19-52	19-25	6	8	114.3	124.3	104.0
Mar 18	@WAS	132–118	48-86	22-37	14-23	8	7	130.7	119.2	100.0
Mar 16	@BKN	101–96	32-82	13-41	24-32	12	13	107.4	104.3	93.0
Mar 15	@CHI	117–114	38-78	18-42	23-29	19	5	113.6	109.6	103.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games

10%

pregame chance the forecast gave SAS, the winner

the forecast favored SAC

29 pts

margin miss

forecast +21, actual −8 for SAC

1st

most surprising result of 2022-23

of 1,314 graded games

32nd

largest margin miss of 2022-23

outcome surprise 2.31 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	SAS	SAC
Final score	142	134
Field goals	52–98 · 53.1%	49–103 · 47.6%
Three-pointers	13–34 · 38.2%	11–44 · 25.0%
Free throws	25–29 · 86.2%	25–32 · 78.1%
Rebounds	52	43
Assists	31	24
Turnovers	17	15
Steals	8	9
Blocks	3	5

How the model does with these teams over time: San Antonio Spurs · Sacramento Kings

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (SAC)	+21	−8	−29
Total points	227	276	+49
SAS points	103	142	+39
SAC points	124	134	+10

Recent form before this game