2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Clippers

Sunday, October 29, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

SAS 0–0@LAC 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
SAS San Antonio Spurs	115	83	−32
LAC Los Angeles Clippers (home)	121	123	+2

Forecast: Los Angeles Clippers to win, 67% win probability, projected margin 6.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	SAS	LAC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1366	1514
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+218
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−9.2	+0.6
Games played this season	2	2
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	112.1	119.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	120.4	119.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	102.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAS1366LAC1514

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAS1366

Ended last season at 1326 → started this one at 1369
This season's 2 games: −3.2

LDAL119–126−8.0
WHOU126–122+4.8

LAC1514

Ended last season at 1520 → started this one at 1515
This season's 2 games: −1.0

WPOR123–111+4.3
L@UTA118–120−5.3

Season scoring marginSAS−9.2LAC+0.6

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAS−9.2

Scores 122.5, allows 124.0 over 2 games: −1.5 a game.

10% this season (−1.5) + 90% last season (−10.0) = −9.2

LAC+0.6

Scores 120.5, allows 115.5 over 2 games: +5.0 a game.

10% this season (+5.0) + 90% last season (+0.1) = +0.6

Offensive rating, last 10SAS112.1LAC119.1

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23: 114.0).

SAS112.1scored, −1.9 vs league

Factor	SAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.3%	54.6%	−2.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.8%	11.9%	+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.1%	23.8%	+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.190	0.210	−0.6
Everything else			+0.4

LAC119.1scored, +5.0 vs league

Factor	LAC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.2%	54.6%	+2.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.9%	11.9%	±0.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.9%	23.8%	+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.239	0.210	+0.8
Everything else			+0.9

Defensive rating, last 10SAS120.4LAC119.0

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23: 114.0).

SAS120.4allowed, +6.3 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.4%	54.6%	−5.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.5%	11.9%	−2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.2%	23.8%	−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.163	0.210	+1.4
Everything else			+0.3

LAC119.0allowed, +4.9 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.7%	54.6%	−1.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.3%	11.9%	−2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.7%	23.8%	−1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.222	0.210	−0.3
Everything else			+0.7

Pace, last 10average 102.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAS 105.0 and LAC 100.7 → average 102.9 (league 2022-23: 99.6)

Rotation points missingSAS0.0LAC0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-10-29 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

LAC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-10-29 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestSAS2 daysLAC2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAS2days

Last played Oct 27 against HOU.

LAC2days

Last played Oct 27 against UTA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 27	HOU	126–122	46-94	13-42	21-28	18	12	113.5	109.9	100.5
Oct 25	DAL	119–126	46-89	11-35	16-22	19	9	111.2	117.8	107.0
Apr 9	@DAL	138–117	51-104	15-38	21-30	12	13	123.2	103.5	112.5
Apr 8	MIN	131–151	50-95	13-29	18-24	13	10	123.6	141.1	106.5
Apr 6	POR	129–127	47-106	10-35	25-28	14	18	119.4	117.6	108.0
Apr 4	@PHX	94–115	35-90	13-40	11-14	12	9	96.9	117.3	97.5
Apr 2	@SAC	142–134	52-98	13-34	25-29	17	14	124.6	117.5	103.2
Mar 31	@GSW	115–130	42-91	15-38	16-23	13	14	115.0	131.3	99.5
Mar 29	UTA	117–128	45-95	10-35	17-21	15	9	108.3	119.6	107.5
Mar 26	@BOS	93–137	36-97	8-36	13-18	10	3	85.3	128.0	108.0

LAC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 27	@UTA	118–120	41-77	14-35	22-28	14	6	118.0	120.0	100.0
Oct 25	POR	123–111	47-90	16-34	13-16	17	14	124.2	112.1	99.0
Apr 25	@PHX	130–136	43-95	13-36	31-37	10	17	130.0	136.0	100.0
Apr 22	PHX	100–112	40-92	12-37	8-10	13	9	104.2	115.5	96.5
Apr 20	PHX	124–129	45-83	15-35	19-25	18	6	119.2	125.2	103.5
Apr 18	@PHX	109–123	35-80	11-30	28-31	15	12	114.7	129.5	95.0
Apr 16	@PHX	115–110	41-93	10-31	23-29	13	15	112.7	106.8	102.5
Apr 9	@PHX	119–114	49-100	5-23	16-24	10	14	116.7	110.7	102.5
Apr 8	POR	136–125	49-93	12-35	26-30	12	13	132.0	121.4	103.0
Apr 5	LAL	125–118	43-82	16-36	23-27	12	5	119.0	112.4	105.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games

67%

pregame chance the forecast gave LAC, the winner

LAC was the forecast favorite

34 pts

margin miss

forecast +6, actual +40 for LAC

1022nd

most surprising result of 2023-24

of 1,312 graded games

35th

largest margin miss of 2023-24

outcome surprise 0.41 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	SAS	LAC
Final score	83	123
Field goals	30–80 · 37.5%	47–91 · 51.6%
Three-pointers	11–33 · 33.3%	16–42 · 38.1%
Free throws	12–16 · 75.0%	13–21 · 61.9%
Rebounds	37	48
Assists	21	23
Turnovers	25	16
Steals	9	15
Blocks	6	5

How the model does with these teams over time: San Antonio Spurs · Los Angeles Clippers

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (LAC)	+6	+40	+34
Total points	236	206	−30
SAS points	115	83	−32
LAC points	121	123	+2

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
SAS	17	20	23	23	–	83
LAC	23	33	37	30	–	123

Recent form before this game