The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Apr 9

2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors

Wednesday, April 9, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

SAS 3–1@GSW 5–5 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: SAS 18 percent, GSW 82 percent. SAS Spurs 18% proj. 109 · final 114 GSW Golden State Warriors · home 82% proj. 123 · final 111
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
SAS San Antonio Spurs 109 114 +5
GSW Golden State Warriors (home) 123 111 −12

Forecast: Golden State Warriors to win, 82% win probability, projected margin 14.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputSASGSW
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 14111619
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +279
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −2.6+3.3
Games played this season 8179
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 110.2118.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 117.6111.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 8.88.0
Rest days 11
Second night of a back-to-back YesYes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAS1411GSW1619

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAS1411

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1400 → started this one at 1425
  2. First 71 games: −0.9
  3. Last 10 games: −13.1
  • W@TOR123–89+27.7
  • L@DET96–122−8.7
  • L@CLE116–124−1.8
  • LBOS111–121−4.0
  • LGSW106–148−22.6
  • LORL105–116−11.9
  • W@DEN113–106+17.4
  • LCLE113–114−1.5
  • L@POR109–120−5.8
  • L@LAC117–122−1.9

GSW1619

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1620 → started this one at 1590
  2. First 69 games: +3.6
  3. Last 10 games: +25.6
  • WTOR117–114+1.6
  • L@ATL115–124−12.5
  • L@MIA86–112−28.0
  • W@NOP111–95+8.0
  • W@SAS148–106+22.6
  • W@MEM134–125+10.5
  • W@LAL123–116+8.9
  • WDEN118–104+8.7
  • LHOU96–106−12.7
  • W@PHX133–95+18.5
Season scoring marginSAS−2.6GSW+3.3

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAS−2.6

Scores 114.2, allows 116.8 over 81 games: −2.6 a game.

GSW+3.3

Scores 113.9, allows 110.6 over 79 games: +3.3 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10SAS110.2GSW118.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.8).

SAS110.2scored, −3.6 vs league

FactorSASLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.0%54.4%−2.1
Turnovers (TOV%)11.6%12.0%+0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.7%25.2%−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1700.193−0.7
Everything else−0.7

GSW118.5scored, +4.8 vs league

FactorGSWLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.9%54.4%+0.7
Turnovers (TOV%)11.4%12.0%+0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.8%25.2%+2.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2170.193+0.7
Everything else+0.5
Defensive rating, last 10SAS117.6GSW111.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.8).

SAS117.6allowed, +3.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.9%54.4%−3.7
Turnovers (TOV%)11.6%12.0%−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.9%25.2%−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1590.193+1.0
Everything else−0.3

GSW111.3allowed, −2.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.4%54.4%−4.5
Turnovers (TOV%)15.7%12.0%+5.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.8%25.2%+0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1640.193+0.8
Everything else+0.8
Pace, last 10average 99.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAS 100.7 and GSW 99.1 → average 99.9 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.6)

Rotation points missingSAS8.8GSW8.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAS8.8pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Jeremy Sochan8.821.55

Source: official injury report, 2025-04-09 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

GSW8.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Quinten Post8.017.09

Source: official injury report, 2025-04-09 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestSAS1 daysGSW1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAS1day, back-to-back

Last played Apr 8 against LAC.

GSW1day, back-to-back

Last played Apr 8 against PHX.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 8@LAC117–12245-8517-4210-16167117.0122.0100.0
Apr 6@POR109–12041-9511-3416-211813101.9112.1107.0
Apr 4CLE113–11441-9416-4815-19119110.8111.8102.0
Apr 2@DEN113–10643-9717-4610-13108107.6101.0105.0
Apr 1ORL105–11640-8113-3212-17179111.7122.194.5
Mar 30GSW106–14840-8416-4210-16217101.0141.0105.0
Mar 29BOS111–12138-8714-4021-27410115.6127.495.5
Mar 27@CLE116–12443-10614-4316-211019113.7120.4102.5
Mar 25@DET96–12233-9114-4416-201016103.2131.293.0
Mar 23@TOR123–8941-8614-4327-321413119.487.3102.5

GSW

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 8@PHX133–9545-9315-4028-341517129.194.1102.0
Apr 6HOU96–10637-8916-436-11201598.0108.298.0
Apr 4DEN118–10443-8816-3816-181311120.4107.297.5
Apr 3@LAL123–11639-8219-4226-311314133.7126.192.0
Apr 1@MEM134–12542-9922-5628-281115126.4116.8106.5
Mar 30@SAS148–10656-9721-4415-191210141.0101.0105.0
Mar 28@NOP111–9538-9213-5522-291018116.8100.095.0
Mar 25@MIA86–11233-839-3811-16121494.5124.490.5
Mar 22@ATL115–12439-8416-3821-2696113.9124.0100.5
Mar 20TOR117–11438-9019-4722-281411111.4110.7104.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games
18%
pregame chance the forecast gave SAS, the winner
the forecast favored GSW
17 pts
margin miss
forecast +14, actual −3 for GSW
4th
most surprising result of 2024-25
of 1,309 graded games
269th
largest margin miss of 2024-25
outcome surprise 1.73 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statSASGSW
Final score114111
Field goals39–81 · 48.1%36–86 · 41.9%
Three-pointers18–46 · 39.1%16–48 · 33.3%
Free throws18–21 · 85.7%23–28 · 82.1%
Rebounds4345
Assists2329
Turnovers1310
Steals68
Blocks52

How the model does with these teams over time: San Antonio Spurs · Golden State Warriors

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (GSW)+14−3−17
Total points232225−7
SAS points109114+5
GSW points123111−12

Recent form before this game

San Antonio Spurs

DateOpponentResult
Apr 8 at LAC L 117–122
Apr 6 at POR L 109–120
Apr 4 vs CLE L 113–114
Apr 2 at DEN W 113–106
Apr 1 vs ORL L 105–116

Golden State Warriors

DateOpponentResult
Apr 8 at PHX W 133–95
Apr 6 vs HOU L 96–106
Apr 4 vs DEN W 118–104
Apr 3 at LAL W 123–116
Apr 1 at MEM W 134–125

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 30 2024-25 GSW at SAS GSW 148 – 106 SAS
Nov 23 2024-25 GSW at SAS GSW 94 – 104 SAS
Mar 31 2023-24 GSW at SAS GSW 117 – 113 SAS
Mar 11 2023-24 GSW at SAS GSW 112 – 102 SAS
Mar 9 2023-24 SAS at GSW SAS 126 – 113 GSW