Eastern Conference · 2026-27

Miami Heat MIA

4–6

2026-27 record

1481

Elo rating

with the forecast of Nov 8

113.4

Offensive rating

last 10 games

117.0

Defensive rating

last 10, lower is better

103.5

Pace

possessions per game

Hover the ball to see a season.

Every graded MIA game, one dot each, oldest at the center. 225 of 369 forecasts picked the winner (colored dots).

Elo rating, recent games

Pregame Elo stored with each of MIA's last 82 forecasts. Dashed: 1500, the long-run average.

Elo rating recorded with each team's most recent forecast. Higher is stronger; 1500 is the long-run average. MIA ranks 19 of 30.

Upcoming

Schedule

Nov 10 9:00 PM ET

MIA Miami Heat 4–6 –

@UTA Utah Jazz 1–9 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 13 8:00 PM ET

CLE Cleveland Cavaliers 5–5 –

@MIA Miami Heat 4–6 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 14 8:00 PM ET

DET Detroit Pistons 6–3 –

@MIA Miami Heat 4–6 –

Forecast coming Details

Recent results

Predictability

How closely the forecasts tracked MIA games. A team can be hard for this model to forecast whether it is good or bad: misses come from the model's limits, roster changes, missing information and ordinary game-to-game variation. Compare all 30 teams

2026-27 (in progress)

Small sample: 10 games. These figures are a running log, not a measurement, and no ranking is shown.

12.0 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 7.8 to 16.0

−5.6

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -12.4 to 1.4

13.9 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.7

80%

winner picked

10 games involving MIA

4 / 5.1

actual / expected wins

gap −1.1

0.214

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 10 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	MIA win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 8	at SAC	65%	123–118	W 114–108	✓correct	+1
Nov 5	at GSW	48%	118–119	L 100–120	✓correct	−19
Nov 4	at LAC	58%	120–116	W 117–116	✓correct	−3
Nov 2	at LAL	41%	117–120	L 117–138	✓correct	−18
Oct 30	vs IND	64%	122–117	W 145–125	✓correct	+15
Oct 28	at ATL	39%	117–121	W 129–117	✗missed	+16
Oct 26	vs DAL	62%	125–121	L 109–113	✗missed	−8
Oct 24	at CHA	39%	112–116	L 110–115	✓correct	−1
Oct 23	vs DET	44%	114–116	L 111–128	✓correct	−15
Oct 21	vs MIN	47%	119–120	L 106–131	✓correct	−24

2025-26

12.6 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 11.0 to 14.3; 27th smallest of 30

+0.9

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -1.8 to 3.5

15.5 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.4

60%

winner picked

82 games involving MIA

43 / 43.7

actual / expected wins

gap −0.7

0.230

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	MIA win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 12	vs ATL	64%	123–118	W 143–117	✓correct	+21
Apr 10	at WAS	81%	130–117	W 140–117	✓correct	+10
Apr 9	at TOR	31%	115–122	L 114–128	✓correct	−7
Apr 7	at TOR	41%	118–121	L 95–121	✓correct	−23
Apr 4	vs WAS	78%	127–116	W 152–136	✓correct	+5
Apr 1	vs BOS	39%	111–115	L 129–147	✓correct	−14
Mar 30	vs PHI	47%	121–122	W 119–109	✗missed	+11
Mar 29	at IND	78%	128–117	L 118–135	✗missed	−28
Mar 27	at CLE	44%	119–121	L 128–149	✓correct	−19
Mar 25	at CLE	41%	120–123	W 120–103	✗missed	+20
Mar 23	vs SAS	39%	116–120	L 111–136	✓correct	−21
Mar 21	at HOU	47%	116–117	L 122–123	✓correct	±0
Mar 19	vs LAL	53%	117–116	L 126–134	✗missed	−9
Mar 17	at CHA	31%	111–118	L 106–136	✓correct	−23
Mar 14	vs ORL	59%	118–115	L 117–121	✗missed	−7
Mar 12	vs MIL	83%	125–111	W 112–105	✓correct	−7
Mar 10	vs WAS	87%	125–108	W 150–129	✓correct	+4
Mar 8	vs DET	44%	115–117	W 121–110	✗missed	+13
Mar 6	at CHA	29%	110–118	W 128–120	✗missed	+16
Mar 5	vs BKN	87%	123–106	W 126–110	✓correct	−1
Mar 3	vs BKN	83%	122–108	W 124–98	✓correct	+12
Feb 28	vs HOU	53%	114–113	W 115–105	✓correct	+9
Feb 26	at PHI	56%	120–118	L 117–124	✗missed	−9
Feb 24	at MIL	61%	119–115	L 117–128	✗missed	−15
Feb 21	vs MEM	71%	122–114	W 136–120	✓correct	+8
Feb 20	at ATL	53%	119–118	W 128–97	✓correct	+30
Feb 11	at NOP	56%	116–114	W 123–111	✓correct	+10
Feb 9	vs UTA	82%	125–112	L 111–115	✗missed	−17
Feb 8	at WAS	78%	123–112	W 132–101	✓correct	+20
Feb 6	at BOS	31%	112–119	L 96–98	✓correct	+5
Feb 3	vs ATL	61%	120–116	L 115–127	✗missed	−16
Feb 1	vs CHI	64%	122–117	W 134–91	✓correct	+38
Jan 31	vs CHI	69%	124–117	L 118–125	✗missed	−14
Jan 29	at CHI	44%	119–121	W 116–113	✗missed	+5
Jan 28	vs ORL	59%	119–116	L 124–133	✗missed	−12
Jan 25	at PHX	34%	112–118	W 111–102	✗missed	+15
Jan 24	at UTA	71%	123–115	W 147–116	✓correct	+23
Jan 22	at POR	29%	112–120	L 110–127	✓correct	−9
Jan 20	at SAC	56%	118–116	W 130–117	✓correct	+11
Jan 19	at GSW	39%	118–122	L 112–135	✓correct	−19
Jan 17	vs OKC	36%	116–121	W 122–120	✗missed	+7
Jan 15	vs BOS	47%	117–118	L 114–119	✓correct	−4
Jan 13	vs PHX	47%	116–117	W 127–121	✗missed	+7
Jan 11	at OKC	20%	112–124	L 112–124	✓correct	±0
Jan 10	at IND	69%	122–115	L 99–123	✗missed	−31
Jan 6	at MIN	34%	114–120	L 94–122	✓correct	−22
Jan 4	vs NOP	78%	123–112	W 125–106	✓correct	+8
Jan 3	vs MIN	53%	117–116	L 115–125	✗missed	−11
Jan 1	at DET	31%	114–121	W 118–112	✗missed	+13
Dec 29	vs DEN	47%	117–118	W 147–123	✗missed	+25
Dec 27	vs IND	61%	116–112	W 142–116	✓correct	+22
Dec 26	at ATL	44%	118–120	W 126–111	✗missed	+17
Dec 23	vs TOR	59%	117–114	L 91–112	✗missed	−24
Dec 21	at NYK	22%	109–120	L 125–132	✓correct	+4
Dec 19	at BOS	29%	110–118	L 116–129	✓correct	−5
Dec 18	at BKN	53%	114–113	W 106–95	✓correct	+10
Dec 15	vs TOR	71%	118–110	L 96–106	✗missed	−18
Dec 9	at ORL	34%	116–122	L 108–117	✓correct	−3
Dec 6	vs SAC	82%	124–111	L 111–127	✗missed	−29
Dec 5	at ORL	39%	116–120	L 105–106	✓correct	+3
Dec 3	at DAL	61%	118–114	L 108–118	✗missed	−14
Dec 1	vs LAC	74%	122–113	W 140–123	✓correct	+8
Nov 29	vs DET	59%	119–116	L 135–138	✗missed	−6
Nov 26	vs MIL	74%	124–115	W 106–103	✓correct	−6
Nov 24	vs DAL	74%	124–115	W 106–102	✓correct	−5
Nov 23	at PHI	61%	118–114	W 127–117	✓correct	+6
Nov 21	at CHI	53%	122–121	W 143–107	✓correct	+35
Nov 19	vs GSW	56%	120–118	W 110–96	✓correct	+12
Nov 17	vs NYK	53%	122–121	W 115–113	✓correct	+1
Nov 14	at NYK	39%	118–122	L 132–140	✓correct	−4
Nov 12	vs CLE	61%	121–117	L 116–130	✗missed	−18
Nov 10	vs CLE	42%	117–120	W 140–138	✗missed	+5
Nov 8	vs POR	42%	116–119	W 136–131	✗missed	+8
Nov 7	vs CHA	78%	122–111	W 126–108	✓correct	+7
Nov 5	at DEN	31%	113–120	L 112–122	✓correct	−3
Nov 3	at LAC	36%	110–115	W 120–119	✗missed	+6
Nov 2	at LAL	41%	113–116	L 120–130	✓correct	−7
Oct 30	at SAS	36%	114–119	L 101–107	✓correct	−1
Oct 28	vs CHA	78%	123–112	W 144–117	✓correct	+16
Oct 26	vs NYK	44%	113–115	W 115–107	✗missed	+10
Oct 24	at MEM	34%	114–120	W 146–114	✗missed	+38
Oct 22	at ORL	41%	108–111	L 121–125	✓correct	−1

2024-25

11.0 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.4 to 12.9; 17th smallest of 30

−1.4

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -4.2 to 1.4

15.1 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

66%

winner picked

85 games involving MIA

36 / 43.1

actual / expected wins

gap −7.1

0.220

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 85 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	MIA win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 28 PO	vs CLE	36%	105–111	L 83–138	✓correct	−49
Apr 26 PO	vs CLE	46%	107–109	L 87–124	✓correct	−35
Apr 23 PO	at CLE	36%	108–113	L 112–121	✓correct	−4
Apr 20 PO	at CLE	31%	109–116	L 100–121	✓correct	−14
Apr 13	vs WAS	67%	113–107	L 118–119	✗missed	−7
Apr 11	at NOP	82%	119–104	W 153–104	✓correct	+34
Apr 9	at CHI	46%	119–120	L 111–119	✓correct	−7
Apr 7	vs PHI	82%	117–103	W 117–105	✓correct	−2
Apr 5	vs MIL	54%	112–111	L 115–121	✗missed	−7
Apr 3	vs MEM	54%	114–113	L 108–110	✗missed	−3
Apr 2	at BOS	21%	101–113	W 124–103	✗missed	+33
Mar 31	at WAS	64%	116–110	W 120–94	✓correct	+20
Mar 29	at PHI	51%	112–111	W 118–95	✓correct	+22
Mar 27	vs ATL	49%	113–114	W 122–112	✗missed	+11
Mar 25	vs GSW	36%	108–114	W 112–86	✗missed	+32
Mar 23	vs CHA	67%	113–107	W 122–105	✓correct	+11
Mar 21	vs HOU	39%	108–113	L 98–102	✓correct	+1
Mar 19	vs DET	41%	112–116	L 113–116	✓correct	+1
Mar 17	at NYK	33%	105–111	L 95–116	✓correct	−15
Mar 15	at MEM	33%	113–119	L 91–125	✓correct	−28
Mar 14	vs BOS	34%	105–112	L 91–103	✓correct	−5
Mar 12	vs LAC	54%	110–109	L 104–119	✗missed	−16
Mar 10	vs CHA	79%	116–104	L 102–105	✗missed	−15
Mar 8	vs CHI	73%	118–109	L 109–114	✗missed	−14
Mar 7	vs MIN	46%	110–112	L 104–106	✓correct	±0
Mar 5	at CLE	16%	107–122	L 107–112	✓correct	+10
Mar 3	vs WAS	71%	113–105	W 106–90	✓correct	+8
Mar 2	vs NYK	41%	108–112	L 112–116	✓correct	±0
Feb 28	vs IND	46%	112–114	W 125–120	✗missed	+7
Feb 26	vs ATL	54%	115–114	W 131–109	✓correct	+21
Feb 24	at ATL	38%	117–121	L 86–98	✓correct	−8
Feb 23	at MIL	41%	111–114	L 113–120	✓correct	−4
Feb 21	at TOR	46%	109–110	W 120–111	✗missed	+10
Feb 13	at DAL	33%	109–115	L 113–118	✓correct	+1
Feb 12	at OKC	14%	107–124	L 101–115	✓correct	+3
Feb 10	vs BOS	29%	104–113	L 85–103	✓correct	−9
Feb 7	at BKN	61%	111–106	L 86–102	✗missed	−21
Feb 5	at PHI	46%	115–116	W 108–101	✗missed	+8
Feb 4	at CHI	46%	114–115	L 124–133	✓correct	−8
Feb 1	at SAS	51%	118–117	W 105–103	✓correct	+1
Jan 29	vs CLE	44%	108–111	L 106–126	✓correct	−17
Jan 27	vs ORL	59%	109–106	W 125–119	✓correct	+3
Jan 25	at BKN	64%	113–107	W 106–97	✓correct	+3
Jan 23	at MIL	38%	111–115	L 96–125	✓correct	−25
Jan 21	vs POR	73%	116–107	L 107–116	✗missed	−18
Jan 19	vs SAS	57%	113–111	W 128–107	✓correct	+19
Jan 17	vs DEN	49%	111–112	L 113–133	✓correct	−19
Jan 15	at LAL	51%	113–112	L 108–117	✗missed	−10
Jan 13	at LAC	43%	108–110	L 98–109	✓correct	−9
Jan 11	at POR	61%	112–107	W 119–98	✓correct	+16
Jan 9	at UTA	56%	114–111	W 97–92	✓correct	+2
Jan 7	at GSW	46%	111–112	W 114–98	✗missed	+17
Jan 6	at SAC	36%	111–116	L 118–123	✓correct	±0
Jan 4	vs UTA	67%	116–110	L 100–136	✗missed	−42
Jan 2	vs IND	54%	113–112	L 115–128	✗missed	−14
Jan 1	vs NOP	75%	116–106	W 119–108	✓correct	+1
Dec 29	at HOU	29%	105–113	W 104–100	✗missed	+12
Dec 28	at ATL	51%	114–113	L 110–120	✗missed	−11
Dec 26	at ORL	46%	107–108	W 89–88	✗missed	+2
Dec 23	vs BKN	75%	116–106	W 110–95	✓correct	+5
Dec 21	at ORL	46%	107–108	L 114–121	✓correct	−6
Dec 20	vs OKC	49%	109–110	L 97–104	✓correct	−6
Dec 16	at DET	61%	115–110	L 124–125	✗missed	−6
Dec 12	vs TOR	73%	117–108	W 114–104	✓correct	+1
Dec 8	vs CLE	44%	110–113	W 122–113	✗missed	+12
Dec 7	vs PHX	69%	113–106	W 121–111	✓correct	+3
Dec 4	vs LAL	64%	111–106	W 134–93	✓correct	+36
Dec 2	at BOS	31%	108–115	L 89–108	✓correct	−12
Dec 1	at TOR	61%	111–106	L 116–119	✗missed	−8
Nov 29	vs TOR	73%	112–103	W 121–111	✓correct	+1
Nov 27	at CHA	59%	111–107	W 98–94	✓correct	±0
Nov 26	vs MIL	59%	113–110	L 103–106	✗missed	−6
Nov 24	vs DAL	57%	113–111	W 123–118	✓correct	+3
Nov 18	vs PHI	69%	111–104	W 106–89	✓correct	+10
Nov 17	at IND	43%	112–114	L 110–119	✓correct	−7
Nov 15	at IND	51%	113–112	W 124–111	✓correct	+12
Nov 12	at DET	46%	110–111	L 121–123	✓correct	−1
Nov 10	at MIN	31%	109–116	W 95–94	✗missed	+8
Nov 8	at DEN	36%	106–111	L 122–135	✓correct	−8
Nov 6	at PHX	33%	106–112	L 112–115	✓correct	+3
Nov 4	vs SAC	54%	110–109	L 110–111	✗missed	−2
Oct 30	vs NYK	57%	110–108	L 107–116	✗missed	−11
Oct 28	vs DET	73%	114–105	W 106–98	✓correct	−1
Oct 26	at CHA	56%	112–109	W 114–106	✓correct	+5
Oct 23	vs ORL	54%	107–106	L 97–116	✗missed	−20

2023-24

11.0 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.3 to 12.8; 16th smallest of 30

+0.0

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.6 to 2.6

14.8 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.3

62%

winner picked

87 games involving MIA

47 / 44.6

actual / expected wins

gap +2.4

0.243

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 87 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	MIA win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
May 1 PO	at BOS	34%	103–109	L 84–118	✓correct	−28
Apr 29 PO	vs BOS	53%	103–104	L 88–102	✓correct	−13
Apr 27 PO	vs BOS	51%	104–106	L 84–104	✓correct	−18
Apr 24 PO	at BOS	30%	102–110	W 111–101	✗missed	+18
Apr 21 PO	at BOS	25%	103–114	L 94–114	✓correct	−9
Apr 14	vs TOR	76%	115–103	W 118–103	✓correct	+3
Apr 12	vs TOR	78%	115–102	W 125–103	✓correct	+9
Apr 10	vs DAL	57%	108–107	L 92–111	✗missed	−20
Apr 9	at ATL	47%	113–112	W 117–111	✓correct	+5
Apr 7	at IND	43%	111–112	L 115–117	✓correct	−1
Apr 5	at HOU	43%	112–113	W 119–104	✗missed	+16
Apr 4	vs PHI	57%	108–107	L 105–109	✗missed	−5
Apr 2	vs NYK	53%	107–108	W 109–99	✗missed	+11
Mar 31	at WAS	63%	116–107	W 119–107	✓correct	+3
Mar 29	vs POR	68%	108–101	W 142–82	✓correct	+53
Mar 26	vs GSW	57%	110–109	L 92–113	✗missed	−22
Mar 24	vs CLE	57%	105–104	W 121–84	✓correct	+36
Mar 22	vs NOP	59%	108–106	L 88–111	✗missed	−25
Mar 20	at CLE	39%	104–107	W 107–104	✗missed	+6
Mar 18	at PHI	49%	111–109	L 91–98	✗missed	−9
Mar 17	at DET	53%	111–107	W 104–101	✓correct	−1
Mar 15	at DET	57%	113–107	W 108–95	✓correct	+7
Mar 13	vs DEN	53%	108–109	L 88–100	✓correct	−11
Mar 10	vs WAS	83%	123–106	L 108–110	✗missed	−19
Mar 8	at OKC	30%	110–118	L 100–107	✓correct	+1
Mar 7	at DAL	39%	114–117	L 108–114	✓correct	−3
Mar 5	vs DET	72%	115–106	W 118–110	✓correct	−1
Mar 2	vs UTA	63%	113–109	W 126–120	✓correct	+2
Feb 29	at DEN	39%	106–109	L 97–103	✓correct	−3
Feb 27	at POR	55%	111–106	W 106–96	✓correct	+5
Feb 26	at SAC	28%	113–122	W 121–110	✗missed	+20
Feb 23	at NOP	35%	108–113	W 106–95	✗missed	+16
Feb 14	at PHI	39%	113–116	W 109–104	✗missed	+8
Feb 13	at MIL	34%	109–115	W 123–97	✗missed	+32
Feb 11	vs BOS	51%	113–115	L 106–110	✓correct	−2
Feb 7	vs SAS	70%	117–109	W 116–104	✓correct	+4
Feb 6	vs ORL	43%	107–113	W 121–95	✗missed	+32
Feb 4	vs LAC	39%	108–116	L 95–103	✓correct	±0
Feb 2	at WAS	57%	117–111	W 110–102	✓correct	+2
Jan 31	vs SAC	45%	110–115	W 115–106	✗missed	+14
Jan 29	vs PHX	45%	110–115	L 105–118	✓correct	−8
Jan 27	at NYK	43%	107–108	L 109–125	✓correct	−15
Jan 25	vs BOS	47%	106–110	L 110–143	✓correct	−29
Jan 24	vs MEM	68%	112–105	L 96–105	✗missed	−16
Jan 21	at ORL	43%	108–109	L 87–105	✓correct	−17
Jan 19	vs ATL	70%	118–110	L 108–109	✗missed	−9
Jan 17	at TOR	47%	117–116	L 97–121	✗missed	−25
Jan 15	at BKN	41%	115–117	W 96–95	✗missed	+3
Jan 14	vs CHA	78%	115–102	W 104–87	✓correct	+4
Jan 12	vs ORL	63%	115–111	W 99–96	✓correct	−1
Jan 10	vs OKC	53%	111–112	L 120–128	✓correct	−7
Jan 8	vs HOU	63%	115–111	W 120–113	✓correct	+3
Jan 5	at PHX	43%	115–116	L 97–113	✓correct	−15
Jan 3	at LAL	43%	115–116	W 110–96	✗missed	+15
Jan 1	at LAC	43%	116–117	L 104–121	✓correct	−16
Dec 30	at UTA	47%	116–115	L 109–117	✗missed	−9
Dec 28	at GSW	37%	114–118	W 114–102	✗missed	+16
Dec 25	vs PHI	63%	117–113	W 119–113	✓correct	+2
Dec 22	vs ATL	53%	118–119	W 122–113	✗missed	+10
Dec 20	at ORL	32%	110–117	W 115–106	✗missed	+16
Dec 18	vs MIN	53%	114–115	L 108–112	✓correct	−3
Dec 16	vs CHI	65%	116–111	W 118–116	✓correct	−3
Dec 14	vs CHI	63%	114–110	L 116–124	✗missed	−12
Dec 13	vs CHA	73%	117–107	W 115–104	✓correct	+1
Dec 11	at CHA	55%	116–111	W 116–114	✓correct	−3
Dec 8	vs CLE	59%	114–112	L 99–111	✗missed	−14
Dec 6	at TOR	41%	114–116	W 112–103	✗missed	+11
Dec 2	vs IND	63%	119–115	L 129–144	✗missed	−19
Nov 30	vs IND	63%	118–114	W 142–132	✓correct	+6
Nov 28	vs MIL	61%	114–111	L 124–131	✗missed	−10
Nov 25	at BKN	37%	111–115	L 97–112	✓correct	−11
Nov 24	at NYK	25%	106–117	L 98–100	✓correct	+9
Nov 22	at CLE	43%	110–111	W 129–96	✗missed	+34
Nov 20	at CHI	47%	110–109	W 118–100	✓correct	+17
Nov 18	at CHI	43%	111–112	L 97–102	✓correct	−4
Nov 16	vs BKN	68%	117–110	W 122–115	✓correct	±0
Nov 14	at CHA	61%	121–113	W 111–105	✓correct	−2
Nov 12	at SAS	49%	117–115	W 118–113	✓correct	+3
Nov 11	at ATL	25%	112–123	W 117–109	✗missed	+19
Nov 8	at MEM	49%	112–110	W 108–102	✓correct	+4
Nov 6	vs LAL	61%	111–108	W 108–107	✓correct	−2
Nov 3	vs WAS	63%	116–112	W 121–114	✓correct	+3
Nov 1	vs BKN	53%	107–108	L 105–109	✓correct	−3
Oct 30	at MIL	49%	112–110	L 114–122	✗missed	−10
Oct 28	at MIN	39%	105–108	L 90–106	✓correct	−13
Oct 27	at BOS	39%	105–108	L 111–119	✓correct	−5
Oct 25	vs DET	68%	111–104	W 103–102	✓correct	−6

2022-23

9.4 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 8.2 to 10.7; 7th smallest of 30

−0.3

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.4 to 1.7

12.4 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 10.3

55%

winner picked

105 games involving MIA

57 / 53.5

actual / expected wins

gap +3.5

0.261

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 105 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	MIA win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Jun 12 PO	at DEN	28%	103–112	L 89–94	✓correct	+4
Jun 9 PO	vs DEN	70%	109–101	L 95–108	✗missed	−21
Jun 7 PO	vs DEN	63%	111–106	L 94–109	✗missed	−20
Jun 4 PO	at DEN	24%	100–111	W 111–108	✗missed	+14
Jun 1 PO	at DEN	30%	102–110	L 93–104	✓correct	−3
May 29 PO	at BOS	37%	106–111	W 103–84	✗missed	+24
May 27 PO	vs BOS	55%	104–102	L 103–104	✗missed	−3
May 25 PO	at BOS	30%	104–112	L 97–110	✓correct	−5
May 23 PO	vs BOS	60%	108–104	L 99–116	✗missed	−21
May 21 PO	vs BOS	65%	106–100	W 128–102	✓correct	+20
May 19 PO	at BOS	26%	104–114	W 111–105	✗missed	+16
May 17 PO	at BOS	22%	101–113	W 123–116	✗missed	+19
May 12 PO	vs NYK	76%	111–100	W 96–92	✓correct	−7
May 10 PO	at NYK	28%	101–110	L 103–112	✓correct	±0
May 8 PO	vs NYK	72%	112–103	W 109–101	✓correct	−1
May 6 PO	vs NYK	74%	112–102	W 105–86	✓correct	+9
May 2 PO	at NYK	28%	104–113	L 105–111	✓correct	+3
Apr 30 PO	at NYK	30%	103–111	W 108–101	✗missed	+15
Apr 26 PO	at MIL	37%	112–117	W 128–126	✗missed	+7
Apr 24 PO	vs MIL	60%	113–109	W 119–114	✓correct	+1
Apr 22 PO	vs MIL	55%	113–111	W 121–99	✓correct	+20
Apr 19 PO	at MIL	32%	110–117	L 122–138	✓correct	−9
Apr 16 PO	at MIL	32%	110–117	W 130–117	✗missed	+20
Apr 9	vs ORL	63%	113–108	W 123–110	✓correct	+8
Apr 7	at WAS	68%	122–115	L 108–114	✗missed	−13
Apr 6	at PHI	28%	108–117	W 129–101	✗missed	+37
Apr 4	at DET	65%	114–108	W 118–105	✓correct	+7
Apr 1	vs DAL	40%	110–114	W 129–122	✗missed	+11
Mar 29	at NYK	26%	107–117	L 92–101	✓correct	+1
Mar 28	at TOR	26%	106–116	L 92–106	✓correct	−4
Mar 25	vs BKN	65%	115–109	L 100–129	✗missed	−35
Mar 22	vs NYK	65%	118–112	W 127–120	✓correct	+1
Mar 19	at DET	72%	120–111	W 112–100	✓correct	+3
Mar 18	at CHI	37%	110–115	L 99–113	✓correct	−9
Mar 15	vs MEM	45%	110–112	W 138–119	✗missed	+21
Mar 13	vs UTA	53%	114–113	W 119–115	✓correct	+3
Mar 11	at ORL	65%	120–114	L 114–126	✗missed	−18
Mar 10	vs CLE	40%	108–112	W 119–115	✗missed	+8
Mar 8	vs CLE	45%	109–111	L 100–104	✓correct	−2
Mar 6	vs ATL	53%	117–116	W 130–128	✓correct	+1
Mar 4	vs ATL	53%	116–115	W 117–109	✓correct	+7
Mar 3	vs NYK	45%	110–112	L 120–122	✓correct	±0
Mar 1	vs PHI	35%	104–110	L 96–119	✓correct	−17
Feb 27	at PHI	37%	107–112	W 101–99	✗missed	+7
Feb 25	at CHA	65%	121–115	L 103–108	✗missed	−11
Feb 24	at MIL	37%	111–116	L 99–128	✓correct	−24
Feb 15	at BKN	53%	111–110	L 105–116	✗missed	−12
Feb 13	vs DEN	35%	107–113	L 108–112	✓correct	+2
Feb 11	at ORL	60%	113–109	W 107–103	✓correct	±0
Feb 10	vs HOU	76%	117–106	W 97–95	✓correct	−9
Feb 8	vs IND	60%	116–112	W 116–111	✓correct	+1
Feb 4	at MIL	42%	111–114	L 115–123	✓correct	−5
Feb 2	at NYK	47%	110–111	L 104–106	✓correct	−1
Jan 31	at CLE	42%	108–111	W 100–97	✗missed	+6
Jan 29	at CHA	72%	120–111	L 117–122	✗missed	−14
Jan 27	vs ORL	60%	115–111	W 110–105	✓correct	+1
Jan 24	vs BOS	63%	112–107	W 98–95	✓correct	−2
Jan 22	vs NOP	58%	113–110	W 100–96	✓correct	+1
Jan 20	at DAL	55%	111–109	L 90–115	✗missed	−27
Jan 18	at NOP	53%	110–109	W 124–98	✓correct	+25
Jan 16	at ATL	68%	117–110	L 113–121	✗missed	−15
Jan 14	vs MIL	45%	109–111	W 111–95	✗missed	+18
Jan 12	vs MIL	47%	112–113	W 108–102	✗missed	+7
Jan 10	vs OKC	37%	109–114	W 112–111	✗missed	+6
Jan 8	vs BKN	40%	109–113	L 101–102	✓correct	+3
Jan 6	at PHX	53%	109–108	W 104–96	✓correct	+7
Jan 4	at LAL	70%	122–114	L 109–112	✗missed	−11
Jan 2	at LAC	53%	111–110	W 110–100	✓correct	+9
Dec 31	at UTA	47%	110–111	W 126–123	✗missed	+4
Dec 30	at DEN	45%	110–112	L 119–124	✓correct	−3
Dec 28	vs LAL	63%	116–111	W 112–98	✓correct	+9
Dec 26	vs MIN	40%	108–112	W 113–110	✗missed	+7
Dec 23	vs IND	53%	111–110	L 108–111	✗missed	−4
Dec 20	vs CHI	42%	112–115	L 103–113	✓correct	−7
Dec 17	at SAS	60%	114–110	W 111–101	✓correct	+6
Dec 15	at HOU	58%	112–109	W 111–108	✓correct	±0
Dec 14	at OKC	55%	112–110	W 110–108	✓correct	±0
Dec 12	at IND	65%	118–112	W 87–82	✓correct	−1
Dec 10	vs SAS	80%	119–106	L 111–115	✗missed	−17
Dec 8	vs LAC	68%	113–106	W 115–110	✓correct	−2
Dec 6	vs DET	65%	113–107	L 96–116	✗missed	−26
Dec 5	at MEM	63%	113–108	L 93–101	✗missed	−13
Dec 2	at BOS	53%	113–112	W 120–116	✓correct	+3
Nov 30	at BOS	37%	108–113	L 121–134	✓correct	−8
Nov 27	at ATL	42%	109–112	W 106–98	✗missed	+11
Nov 25	vs WAS	42%	108–111	W 110–107	✗missed	+6
Nov 23	vs WAS	45%	108–110	W 113–105	✗missed	+10
Nov 21	at MIN	42%	110–113	L 101–105	✓correct	−1
Nov 20	at CLE	40%	107–111	L 87–113	✓correct	−22
Nov 18	at WAS	53%	109–108	L 106–107	✗missed	−2
Nov 16	at TOR	53%	111–110	L 104–112	✗missed	−9
Nov 14	vs PHX	47%	106–107	W 113–112	✗missed	+2
Nov 12	vs CHA	55%	109–107	W 132–115	✓correct	+15
Nov 10	vs CHA	55%	109–107	W 117–112	✓correct	+3
Nov 7	vs POR	68%	111–104	L 107–110	✗missed	−10
Nov 4	at IND	60%	117–113	L 99–101	✗missed	−6
Nov 2	vs SAC	70%	114–106	W 110–107	✓correct	−5
Nov 1	vs GSW	42%	108–111	W 116–109	✗missed	+10
Oct 29	at SAC	65%	112–106	L 113–119	✗missed	−12
Oct 27	at GSW	45%	107–109	L 110–123	✓correct	−11
Oct 26	at POR	55%	105–103	W 119–98	✓correct	+19
Oct 24	vs TOR	58%	108–105	L 90–98	✗missed	−11
Oct 22	vs TOR	55%	107–105	W 112–109	✓correct	+1
Oct 21	vs BOS	45%	101–103	L 104–111	✓correct	−5
Oct 19	vs CHI	70%	111–103	L 108–116	✗missed	−16

2022-23 to 2026-27

10.9 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.2 to 11.7; 14th smallest of 30

−0.4

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -1.6 to 0.9

14.3 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

61%

winner picked

369 games involving MIA

187 / 190.1

actual / expected wins

gap −3.1

0.239

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 369 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	MIA win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 8	at SAC	65%	123–118	W 114–108	✓correct	+1
Nov 5	at GSW	48%	118–119	L 100–120	✓correct	−19
Nov 4	at LAC	58%	120–116	W 117–116	✓correct	−3
Nov 2	at LAL	41%	117–120	L 117–138	✓correct	−18
Oct 30	vs IND	64%	122–117	W 145–125	✓correct	+15
Oct 28	at ATL	39%	117–121	W 129–117	✗missed	+16
Oct 26	vs DAL	62%	125–121	L 109–113	✗missed	−8
Oct 24	at CHA	39%	112–116	L 110–115	✓correct	−1
Oct 23	vs DET	44%	114–116	L 111–128	✓correct	−15
Oct 21	vs MIN	47%	119–120	L 106–131	✓correct	−24
Apr 12	vs ATL	64%	123–118	W 143–117	✓correct	+21
Apr 10	at WAS	81%	130–117	W 140–117	✓correct	+10
Apr 9	at TOR	31%	115–122	L 114–128	✓correct	−7
Apr 7	at TOR	41%	118–121	L 95–121	✓correct	−23
Apr 4	vs WAS	78%	127–116	W 152–136	✓correct	+5
Apr 1	vs BOS	39%	111–115	L 129–147	✓correct	−14
Mar 30	vs PHI	47%	121–122	W 119–109	✗missed	+11
Mar 29	at IND	78%	128–117	L 118–135	✗missed	−28
Mar 27	at CLE	44%	119–121	L 128–149	✓correct	−19
Mar 25	at CLE	41%	120–123	W 120–103	✗missed	+20
Mar 23	vs SAS	39%	116–120	L 111–136	✓correct	−21
Mar 21	at HOU	47%	116–117	L 122–123	✓correct	±0
Mar 19	vs LAL	53%	117–116	L 126–134	✗missed	−9
Mar 17	at CHA	31%	111–118	L 106–136	✓correct	−23
Mar 14	vs ORL	59%	118–115	L 117–121	✗missed	−7
Mar 12	vs MIL	83%	125–111	W 112–105	✓correct	−7
Mar 10	vs WAS	87%	125–108	W 150–129	✓correct	+4
Mar 8	vs DET	44%	115–117	W 121–110	✗missed	+13
Mar 6	at CHA	29%	110–118	W 128–120	✗missed	+16
Mar 5	vs BKN	87%	123–106	W 126–110	✓correct	−1
Mar 3	vs BKN	83%	122–108	W 124–98	✓correct	+12
Feb 28	vs HOU	53%	114–113	W 115–105	✓correct	+9
Feb 26	at PHI	56%	120–118	L 117–124	✗missed	−9
Feb 24	at MIL	61%	119–115	L 117–128	✗missed	−15
Feb 21	vs MEM	71%	122–114	W 136–120	✓correct	+8
Feb 20	at ATL	53%	119–118	W 128–97	✓correct	+30
Feb 11	at NOP	56%	116–114	W 123–111	✓correct	+10
Feb 9	vs UTA	82%	125–112	L 111–115	✗missed	−17
Feb 8	at WAS	78%	123–112	W 132–101	✓correct	+20
Feb 6	at BOS	31%	112–119	L 96–98	✓correct	+5
Feb 3	vs ATL	61%	120–116	L 115–127	✗missed	−16
Feb 1	vs CHI	64%	122–117	W 134–91	✓correct	+38
Jan 31	vs CHI	69%	124–117	L 118–125	✗missed	−14
Jan 29	at CHI	44%	119–121	W 116–113	✗missed	+5
Jan 28	vs ORL	59%	119–116	L 124–133	✗missed	−12
Jan 25	at PHX	34%	112–118	W 111–102	✗missed	+15
Jan 24	at UTA	71%	123–115	W 147–116	✓correct	+23
Jan 22	at POR	29%	112–120	L 110–127	✓correct	−9
Jan 20	at SAC	56%	118–116	W 130–117	✓correct	+11
Jan 19	at GSW	39%	118–122	L 112–135	✓correct	−19
Jan 17	vs OKC	36%	116–121	W 122–120	✗missed	+7
Jan 15	vs BOS	47%	117–118	L 114–119	✓correct	−4
Jan 13	vs PHX	47%	116–117	W 127–121	✗missed	+7
Jan 11	at OKC	20%	112–124	L 112–124	✓correct	±0
Jan 10	at IND	69%	122–115	L 99–123	✗missed	−31
Jan 6	at MIN	34%	114–120	L 94–122	✓correct	−22
Jan 4	vs NOP	78%	123–112	W 125–106	✓correct	+8
Jan 3	vs MIN	53%	117–116	L 115–125	✗missed	−11
Jan 1	at DET	31%	114–121	W 118–112	✗missed	+13
Dec 29	vs DEN	47%	117–118	W 147–123	✗missed	+25
Dec 27	vs IND	61%	116–112	W 142–116	✓correct	+22
Dec 26	at ATL	44%	118–120	W 126–111	✗missed	+17
Dec 23	vs TOR	59%	117–114	L 91–112	✗missed	−24
Dec 21	at NYK	22%	109–120	L 125–132	✓correct	+4
Dec 19	at BOS	29%	110–118	L 116–129	✓correct	−5
Dec 18	at BKN	53%	114–113	W 106–95	✓correct	+10
Dec 15	vs TOR	71%	118–110	L 96–106	✗missed	−18
Dec 9	at ORL	34%	116–122	L 108–117	✓correct	−3
Dec 6	vs SAC	82%	124–111	L 111–127	✗missed	−29
Dec 5	at ORL	39%	116–120	L 105–106	✓correct	+3
Dec 3	at DAL	61%	118–114	L 108–118	✗missed	−14
Dec 1	vs LAC	74%	122–113	W 140–123	✓correct	+8
Nov 29	vs DET	59%	119–116	L 135–138	✗missed	−6
Nov 26	vs MIL	74%	124–115	W 106–103	✓correct	−6
Nov 24	vs DAL	74%	124–115	W 106–102	✓correct	−5
Nov 23	at PHI	61%	118–114	W 127–117	✓correct	+6
Nov 21	at CHI	53%	122–121	W 143–107	✓correct	+35
Nov 19	vs GSW	56%	120–118	W 110–96	✓correct	+12
Nov 17	vs NYK	53%	122–121	W 115–113	✓correct	+1
Nov 14	at NYK	39%	118–122	L 132–140	✓correct	−4
Nov 12	vs CLE	61%	121–117	L 116–130	✗missed	−18
Nov 10	vs CLE	42%	117–120	W 140–138	✗missed	+5
Nov 8	vs POR	42%	116–119	W 136–131	✗missed	+8
Nov 7	vs CHA	78%	122–111	W 126–108	✓correct	+7
Nov 5	at DEN	31%	113–120	L 112–122	✓correct	−3
Nov 3	at LAC	36%	110–115	W 120–119	✗missed	+6
Nov 2	at LAL	41%	113–116	L 120–130	✓correct	−7
Oct 30	at SAS	36%	114–119	L 101–107	✓correct	−1
Oct 28	vs CHA	78%	123–112	W 144–117	✓correct	+16
Oct 26	vs NYK	44%	113–115	W 115–107	✗missed	+10
Oct 24	at MEM	34%	114–120	W 146–114	✗missed	+38
Oct 22	at ORL	41%	108–111	L 121–125	✓correct	−1
Apr 28 PO	vs CLE	36%	105–111	L 83–138	✓correct	−49
Apr 26 PO	vs CLE	46%	107–109	L 87–124	✓correct	−35
Apr 23 PO	at CLE	36%	108–113	L 112–121	✓correct	−4
Apr 20 PO	at CLE	31%	109–116	L 100–121	✓correct	−14
Apr 13	vs WAS	67%	113–107	L 118–119	✗missed	−7
Apr 11	at NOP	82%	119–104	W 153–104	✓correct	+34
Apr 9	at CHI	46%	119–120	L 111–119	✓correct	−7
Apr 7	vs PHI	82%	117–103	W 117–105	✓correct	−2
Apr 5	vs MIL	54%	112–111	L 115–121	✗missed	−7
Apr 3	vs MEM	54%	114–113	L 108–110	✗missed	−3
Apr 2	at BOS	21%	101–113	W 124–103	✗missed	+33
Mar 31	at WAS	64%	116–110	W 120–94	✓correct	+20
Mar 29	at PHI	51%	112–111	W 118–95	✓correct	+22
Mar 27	vs ATL	49%	113–114	W 122–112	✗missed	+11
Mar 25	vs GSW	36%	108–114	W 112–86	✗missed	+32
Mar 23	vs CHA	67%	113–107	W 122–105	✓correct	+11
Mar 21	vs HOU	39%	108–113	L 98–102	✓correct	+1
Mar 19	vs DET	41%	112–116	L 113–116	✓correct	+1
Mar 17	at NYK	33%	105–111	L 95–116	✓correct	−15
Mar 15	at MEM	33%	113–119	L 91–125	✓correct	−28
Mar 14	vs BOS	34%	105–112	L 91–103	✓correct	−5
Mar 12	vs LAC	54%	110–109	L 104–119	✗missed	−16
Mar 10	vs CHA	79%	116–104	L 102–105	✗missed	−15
Mar 8	vs CHI	73%	118–109	L 109–114	✗missed	−14
Mar 7	vs MIN	46%	110–112	L 104–106	✓correct	±0
Mar 5	at CLE	16%	107–122	L 107–112	✓correct	+10
Mar 3	vs WAS	71%	113–105	W 106–90	✓correct	+8
Mar 2	vs NYK	41%	108–112	L 112–116	✓correct	±0
Feb 28	vs IND	46%	112–114	W 125–120	✗missed	+7
Feb 26	vs ATL	54%	115–114	W 131–109	✓correct	+21
Feb 24	at ATL	38%	117–121	L 86–98	✓correct	−8
Feb 23	at MIL	41%	111–114	L 113–120	✓correct	−4
Feb 21	at TOR	46%	109–110	W 120–111	✗missed	+10
Feb 13	at DAL	33%	109–115	L 113–118	✓correct	+1
Feb 12	at OKC	14%	107–124	L 101–115	✓correct	+3
Feb 10	vs BOS	29%	104–113	L 85–103	✓correct	−9
Feb 7	at BKN	61%	111–106	L 86–102	✗missed	−21
Feb 5	at PHI	46%	115–116	W 108–101	✗missed	+8
Feb 4	at CHI	46%	114–115	L 124–133	✓correct	−8
Feb 1	at SAS	51%	118–117	W 105–103	✓correct	+1
Jan 29	vs CLE	44%	108–111	L 106–126	✓correct	−17
Jan 27	vs ORL	59%	109–106	W 125–119	✓correct	+3
Jan 25	at BKN	64%	113–107	W 106–97	✓correct	+3
Jan 23	at MIL	38%	111–115	L 96–125	✓correct	−25
Jan 21	vs POR	73%	116–107	L 107–116	✗missed	−18
Jan 19	vs SAS	57%	113–111	W 128–107	✓correct	+19
Jan 17	vs DEN	49%	111–112	L 113–133	✓correct	−19
Jan 15	at LAL	51%	113–112	L 108–117	✗missed	−10
Jan 13	at LAC	43%	108–110	L 98–109	✓correct	−9
Jan 11	at POR	61%	112–107	W 119–98	✓correct	+16
Jan 9	at UTA	56%	114–111	W 97–92	✓correct	+2
Jan 7	at GSW	46%	111–112	W 114–98	✗missed	+17
Jan 6	at SAC	36%	111–116	L 118–123	✓correct	±0
Jan 4	vs UTA	67%	116–110	L 100–136	✗missed	−42
Jan 2	vs IND	54%	113–112	L 115–128	✗missed	−14
Jan 1	vs NOP	75%	116–106	W 119–108	✓correct	+1
Dec 29	at HOU	29%	105–113	W 104–100	✗missed	+12
Dec 28	at ATL	51%	114–113	L 110–120	✗missed	−11
Dec 26	at ORL	46%	107–108	W 89–88	✗missed	+2
Dec 23	vs BKN	75%	116–106	W 110–95	✓correct	+5
Dec 21	at ORL	46%	107–108	L 114–121	✓correct	−6
Dec 20	vs OKC	49%	109–110	L 97–104	✓correct	−6
Dec 16	at DET	61%	115–110	L 124–125	✗missed	−6
Dec 12	vs TOR	73%	117–108	W 114–104	✓correct	+1
Dec 8	vs CLE	44%	110–113	W 122–113	✗missed	+12
Dec 7	vs PHX	69%	113–106	W 121–111	✓correct	+3
Dec 4	vs LAL	64%	111–106	W 134–93	✓correct	+36
Dec 2	at BOS	31%	108–115	L 89–108	✓correct	−12
Dec 1	at TOR	61%	111–106	L 116–119	✗missed	−8
Nov 29	vs TOR	73%	112–103	W 121–111	✓correct	+1
Nov 27	at CHA	59%	111–107	W 98–94	✓correct	±0
Nov 26	vs MIL	59%	113–110	L 103–106	✗missed	−6
Nov 24	vs DAL	57%	113–111	W 123–118	✓correct	+3
Nov 18	vs PHI	69%	111–104	W 106–89	✓correct	+10
Nov 17	at IND	43%	112–114	L 110–119	✓correct	−7
Nov 15	at IND	51%	113–112	W 124–111	✓correct	+12
Nov 12	at DET	46%	110–111	L 121–123	✓correct	−1
Nov 10	at MIN	31%	109–116	W 95–94	✗missed	+8
Nov 8	at DEN	36%	106–111	L 122–135	✓correct	−8
Nov 6	at PHX	33%	106–112	L 112–115	✓correct	+3
Nov 4	vs SAC	54%	110–109	L 110–111	✗missed	−2
Oct 30	vs NYK	57%	110–108	L 107–116	✗missed	−11
Oct 28	vs DET	73%	114–105	W 106–98	✓correct	−1
Oct 26	at CHA	56%	112–109	W 114–106	✓correct	+5
Oct 23	vs ORL	54%	107–106	L 97–116	✗missed	−20
May 1 PO	at BOS	34%	103–109	L 84–118	✓correct	−28
Apr 29 PO	vs BOS	53%	103–104	L 88–102	✓correct	−13
Apr 27 PO	vs BOS	51%	104–106	L 84–104	✓correct	−18
Apr 24 PO	at BOS	30%	102–110	W 111–101	✗missed	+18
Apr 21 PO	at BOS	25%	103–114	L 94–114	✓correct	−9
Apr 14	vs TOR	76%	115–103	W 118–103	✓correct	+3
Apr 12	vs TOR	78%	115–102	W 125–103	✓correct	+9
Apr 10	vs DAL	57%	108–107	L 92–111	✗missed	−20
Apr 9	at ATL	47%	113–112	W 117–111	✓correct	+5
Apr 7	at IND	43%	111–112	L 115–117	✓correct	−1
Apr 5	at HOU	43%	112–113	W 119–104	✗missed	+16
Apr 4	vs PHI	57%	108–107	L 105–109	✗missed	−5
Apr 2	vs NYK	53%	107–108	W 109–99	✗missed	+11
Mar 31	at WAS	63%	116–107	W 119–107	✓correct	+3
Mar 29	vs POR	68%	108–101	W 142–82	✓correct	+53
Mar 26	vs GSW	57%	110–109	L 92–113	✗missed	−22
Mar 24	vs CLE	57%	105–104	W 121–84	✓correct	+36
Mar 22	vs NOP	59%	108–106	L 88–111	✗missed	−25
Mar 20	at CLE	39%	104–107	W 107–104	✗missed	+6
Mar 18	at PHI	49%	111–109	L 91–98	✗missed	−9
Mar 17	at DET	53%	111–107	W 104–101	✓correct	−1
Mar 15	at DET	57%	113–107	W 108–95	✓correct	+7
Mar 13	vs DEN	53%	108–109	L 88–100	✓correct	−11
Mar 10	vs WAS	83%	123–106	L 108–110	✗missed	−19
Mar 8	at OKC	30%	110–118	L 100–107	✓correct	+1
Mar 7	at DAL	39%	114–117	L 108–114	✓correct	−3
Mar 5	vs DET	72%	115–106	W 118–110	✓correct	−1
Mar 2	vs UTA	63%	113–109	W 126–120	✓correct	+2
Feb 29	at DEN	39%	106–109	L 97–103	✓correct	−3
Feb 27	at POR	55%	111–106	W 106–96	✓correct	+5
Feb 26	at SAC	28%	113–122	W 121–110	✗missed	+20
Feb 23	at NOP	35%	108–113	W 106–95	✗missed	+16
Feb 14	at PHI	39%	113–116	W 109–104	✗missed	+8
Feb 13	at MIL	34%	109–115	W 123–97	✗missed	+32
Feb 11	vs BOS	51%	113–115	L 106–110	✓correct	−2
Feb 7	vs SAS	70%	117–109	W 116–104	✓correct	+4
Feb 6	vs ORL	43%	107–113	W 121–95	✗missed	+32
Feb 4	vs LAC	39%	108–116	L 95–103	✓correct	±0
Feb 2	at WAS	57%	117–111	W 110–102	✓correct	+2
Jan 31	vs SAC	45%	110–115	W 115–106	✗missed	+14
Jan 29	vs PHX	45%	110–115	L 105–118	✓correct	−8
Jan 27	at NYK	43%	107–108	L 109–125	✓correct	−15
Jan 25	vs BOS	47%	106–110	L 110–143	✓correct	−29
Jan 24	vs MEM	68%	112–105	L 96–105	✗missed	−16
Jan 21	at ORL	43%	108–109	L 87–105	✓correct	−17
Jan 19	vs ATL	70%	118–110	L 108–109	✗missed	−9
Jan 17	at TOR	47%	117–116	L 97–121	✗missed	−25
Jan 15	at BKN	41%	115–117	W 96–95	✗missed	+3
Jan 14	vs CHA	78%	115–102	W 104–87	✓correct	+4
Jan 12	vs ORL	63%	115–111	W 99–96	✓correct	−1
Jan 10	vs OKC	53%	111–112	L 120–128	✓correct	−7
Jan 8	vs HOU	63%	115–111	W 120–113	✓correct	+3
Jan 5	at PHX	43%	115–116	L 97–113	✓correct	−15
Jan 3	at LAL	43%	115–116	W 110–96	✗missed	+15
Jan 1	at LAC	43%	116–117	L 104–121	✓correct	−16
Dec 30	at UTA	47%	116–115	L 109–117	✗missed	−9
Dec 28	at GSW	37%	114–118	W 114–102	✗missed	+16
Dec 25	vs PHI	63%	117–113	W 119–113	✓correct	+2
Dec 22	vs ATL	53%	118–119	W 122–113	✗missed	+10
Dec 20	at ORL	32%	110–117	W 115–106	✗missed	+16
Dec 18	vs MIN	53%	114–115	L 108–112	✓correct	−3
Dec 16	vs CHI	65%	116–111	W 118–116	✓correct	−3
Dec 14	vs CHI	63%	114–110	L 116–124	✗missed	−12
Dec 13	vs CHA	73%	117–107	W 115–104	✓correct	+1
Dec 11	at CHA	55%	116–111	W 116–114	✓correct	−3
Dec 8	vs CLE	59%	114–112	L 99–111	✗missed	−14
Dec 6	at TOR	41%	114–116	W 112–103	✗missed	+11
Dec 2	vs IND	63%	119–115	L 129–144	✗missed	−19
Nov 30	vs IND	63%	118–114	W 142–132	✓correct	+6
Nov 28	vs MIL	61%	114–111	L 124–131	✗missed	−10
Nov 25	at BKN	37%	111–115	L 97–112	✓correct	−11
Nov 24	at NYK	25%	106–117	L 98–100	✓correct	+9
Nov 22	at CLE	43%	110–111	W 129–96	✗missed	+34
Nov 20	at CHI	47%	110–109	W 118–100	✓correct	+17
Nov 18	at CHI	43%	111–112	L 97–102	✓correct	−4
Nov 16	vs BKN	68%	117–110	W 122–115	✓correct	±0
Nov 14	at CHA	61%	121–113	W 111–105	✓correct	−2
Nov 12	at SAS	49%	117–115	W 118–113	✓correct	+3
Nov 11	at ATL	25%	112–123	W 117–109	✗missed	+19
Nov 8	at MEM	49%	112–110	W 108–102	✓correct	+4
Nov 6	vs LAL	61%	111–108	W 108–107	✓correct	−2
Nov 3	vs WAS	63%	116–112	W 121–114	✓correct	+3
Nov 1	vs BKN	53%	107–108	L 105–109	✓correct	−3
Oct 30	at MIL	49%	112–110	L 114–122	✗missed	−10
Oct 28	at MIN	39%	105–108	L 90–106	✓correct	−13
Oct 27	at BOS	39%	105–108	L 111–119	✓correct	−5
Oct 25	vs DET	68%	111–104	W 103–102	✓correct	−6
Jun 12 PO	at DEN	28%	103–112	L 89–94	✓correct	+4
Jun 9 PO	vs DEN	70%	109–101	L 95–108	✗missed	−21
Jun 7 PO	vs DEN	63%	111–106	L 94–109	✗missed	−20
Jun 4 PO	at DEN	24%	100–111	W 111–108	✗missed	+14
Jun 1 PO	at DEN	30%	102–110	L 93–104	✓correct	−3
May 29 PO	at BOS	37%	106–111	W 103–84	✗missed	+24
May 27 PO	vs BOS	55%	104–102	L 103–104	✗missed	−3
May 25 PO	at BOS	30%	104–112	L 97–110	✓correct	−5
May 23 PO	vs BOS	60%	108–104	L 99–116	✗missed	−21
May 21 PO	vs BOS	65%	106–100	W 128–102	✓correct	+20
May 19 PO	at BOS	26%	104–114	W 111–105	✗missed	+16
May 17 PO	at BOS	22%	101–113	W 123–116	✗missed	+19
May 12 PO	vs NYK	76%	111–100	W 96–92	✓correct	−7
May 10 PO	at NYK	28%	101–110	L 103–112	✓correct	±0
May 8 PO	vs NYK	72%	112–103	W 109–101	✓correct	−1
May 6 PO	vs NYK	74%	112–102	W 105–86	✓correct	+9
May 2 PO	at NYK	28%	104–113	L 105–111	✓correct	+3
Apr 30 PO	at NYK	30%	103–111	W 108–101	✗missed	+15
Apr 26 PO	at MIL	37%	112–117	W 128–126	✗missed	+7
Apr 24 PO	vs MIL	60%	113–109	W 119–114	✓correct	+1
Apr 22 PO	vs MIL	55%	113–111	W 121–99	✓correct	+20
Apr 19 PO	at MIL	32%	110–117	L 122–138	✓correct	−9
Apr 16 PO	at MIL	32%	110–117	W 130–117	✗missed	+20
Apr 9	vs ORL	63%	113–108	W 123–110	✓correct	+8
Apr 7	at WAS	68%	122–115	L 108–114	✗missed	−13
Apr 6	at PHI	28%	108–117	W 129–101	✗missed	+37
Apr 4	at DET	65%	114–108	W 118–105	✓correct	+7
Apr 1	vs DAL	40%	110–114	W 129–122	✗missed	+11
Mar 29	at NYK	26%	107–117	L 92–101	✓correct	+1
Mar 28	at TOR	26%	106–116	L 92–106	✓correct	−4
Mar 25	vs BKN	65%	115–109	L 100–129	✗missed	−35
Mar 22	vs NYK	65%	118–112	W 127–120	✓correct	+1
Mar 19	at DET	72%	120–111	W 112–100	✓correct	+3
Mar 18	at CHI	37%	110–115	L 99–113	✓correct	−9
Mar 15	vs MEM	45%	110–112	W 138–119	✗missed	+21
Mar 13	vs UTA	53%	114–113	W 119–115	✓correct	+3
Mar 11	at ORL	65%	120–114	L 114–126	✗missed	−18
Mar 10	vs CLE	40%	108–112	W 119–115	✗missed	+8
Mar 8	vs CLE	45%	109–111	L 100–104	✓correct	−2
Mar 6	vs ATL	53%	117–116	W 130–128	✓correct	+1
Mar 4	vs ATL	53%	116–115	W 117–109	✓correct	+7
Mar 3	vs NYK	45%	110–112	L 120–122	✓correct	±0
Mar 1	vs PHI	35%	104–110	L 96–119	✓correct	−17
Feb 27	at PHI	37%	107–112	W 101–99	✗missed	+7
Feb 25	at CHA	65%	121–115	L 103–108	✗missed	−11
Feb 24	at MIL	37%	111–116	L 99–128	✓correct	−24
Feb 15	at BKN	53%	111–110	L 105–116	✗missed	−12
Feb 13	vs DEN	35%	107–113	L 108–112	✓correct	+2
Feb 11	at ORL	60%	113–109	W 107–103	✓correct	±0
Feb 10	vs HOU	76%	117–106	W 97–95	✓correct	−9
Feb 8	vs IND	60%	116–112	W 116–111	✓correct	+1
Feb 4	at MIL	42%	111–114	L 115–123	✓correct	−5
Feb 2	at NYK	47%	110–111	L 104–106	✓correct	−1
Jan 31	at CLE	42%	108–111	W 100–97	✗missed	+6
Jan 29	at CHA	72%	120–111	L 117–122	✗missed	−14
Jan 27	vs ORL	60%	115–111	W 110–105	✓correct	+1
Jan 24	vs BOS	63%	112–107	W 98–95	✓correct	−2
Jan 22	vs NOP	58%	113–110	W 100–96	✓correct	+1
Jan 20	at DAL	55%	111–109	L 90–115	✗missed	−27
Jan 18	at NOP	53%	110–109	W 124–98	✓correct	+25
Jan 16	at ATL	68%	117–110	L 113–121	✗missed	−15
Jan 14	vs MIL	45%	109–111	W 111–95	✗missed	+18
Jan 12	vs MIL	47%	112–113	W 108–102	✗missed	+7
Jan 10	vs OKC	37%	109–114	W 112–111	✗missed	+6
Jan 8	vs BKN	40%	109–113	L 101–102	✓correct	+3
Jan 6	at PHX	53%	109–108	W 104–96	✓correct	+7
Jan 4	at LAL	70%	122–114	L 109–112	✗missed	−11
Jan 2	at LAC	53%	111–110	W 110–100	✓correct	+9
Dec 31	at UTA	47%	110–111	W 126–123	✗missed	+4
Dec 30	at DEN	45%	110–112	L 119–124	✓correct	−3
Dec 28	vs LAL	63%	116–111	W 112–98	✓correct	+9
Dec 26	vs MIN	40%	108–112	W 113–110	✗missed	+7
Dec 23	vs IND	53%	111–110	L 108–111	✗missed	−4
Dec 20	vs CHI	42%	112–115	L 103–113	✓correct	−7
Dec 17	at SAS	60%	114–110	W 111–101	✓correct	+6
Dec 15	at HOU	58%	112–109	W 111–108	✓correct	±0
Dec 14	at OKC	55%	112–110	W 110–108	✓correct	±0
Dec 12	at IND	65%	118–112	W 87–82	✓correct	−1
Dec 10	vs SAS	80%	119–106	L 111–115	✗missed	−17
Dec 8	vs LAC	68%	113–106	W 115–110	✓correct	−2
Dec 6	vs DET	65%	113–107	L 96–116	✗missed	−26
Dec 5	at MEM	63%	113–108	L 93–101	✗missed	−13
Dec 2	at BOS	53%	113–112	W 120–116	✓correct	+3
Nov 30	at BOS	37%	108–113	L 121–134	✓correct	−8
Nov 27	at ATL	42%	109–112	W 106–98	✗missed	+11
Nov 25	vs WAS	42%	108–111	W 110–107	✗missed	+6
Nov 23	vs WAS	45%	108–110	W 113–105	✗missed	+10
Nov 21	at MIN	42%	110–113	L 101–105	✓correct	−1
Nov 20	at CLE	40%	107–111	L 87–113	✓correct	−22
Nov 18	at WAS	53%	109–108	L 106–107	✗missed	−2
Nov 16	at TOR	53%	111–110	L 104–112	✗missed	−9
Nov 14	vs PHX	47%	106–107	W 113–112	✗missed	+2
Nov 12	vs CHA	55%	109–107	W 132–115	✓correct	+15
Nov 10	vs CHA	55%	109–107	W 117–112	✓correct	+3
Nov 7	vs POR	68%	111–104	L 107–110	✗missed	−10
Nov 4	at IND	60%	117–113	L 99–101	✗missed	−6
Nov 2	vs SAC	70%	114–106	W 110–107	✓correct	−5
Nov 1	vs GSW	42%	108–111	W 116–109	✗missed	+10
Oct 29	at SAC	65%	112–106	L 113–119	✗missed	−12
Oct 27	at GSW	45%	107–109	L 110–123	✓correct	−11
Oct 26	at POR	55%	105–103	W 119–98	✓correct	+19
Oct 24	vs TOR	58%	108–105	L 90–98	✗missed	−11
Oct 22	vs TOR	55%	107–105	W 112–109	✓correct	+1
Oct 21	vs BOS	45%	101–103	L 104–111	✓correct	−5
Oct 19	vs CHI	70%	111–103	L 108–116	✗missed	−16

Surprise games

All MIA surprises

Across every graded season. The percentage is the pregame chance the forecast gave the team that won.

Most unexpected MIA wins

21%MIA beat BOS124–103Apr 2, 2024-25 · forecast BOS113–101 · missed margin by 33
22%MIA beat BOS123–116May 17, 2022-23 · playoffs · forecast BOS113–101 · missed margin by 19
24%MIA beat DEN111–108Jun 4, 2022-23 · playoffs · forecast DEN111–100 · missed margin by 14
25%MIA beat ATL117–109Nov 11, 2023-24 · forecast ATL123–112 · missed margin by 19
26%MIA beat BOS111–105May 19, 2022-23 · playoffs · forecast BOS114–104 · missed margin by 16

Most unexpected MIA losses

17%WAS beat MIA110–108Mar 10, 2023-24 · forecast MIA123–106 · missed margin by 19
19%UTA beat MIA115–111Feb 9, 2025-26 · forecast MIA125–112 · missed margin by 17
19%SAC beat MIA127–111Dec 6, 2025-26 · forecast MIA124–111 · missed margin by 29
20%SAS beat MIA115–111Dec 10, 2022-23 · forecast MIA119–106 · missed margin by 17
21%CHA beat MIA105–102Mar 10, 2024-25 · forecast MIA116–104 · missed margin by 15

Largest margin misses

68%MIA beat POR142–82Mar 29, 2023-24 · forecast MIA108–101 · missed margin by 53
64%CLE beat MIA138–83Apr 28, 2024-25 · playoffs · forecast CLE111–105 · missed margin by 49
33%UTA beat MIA136–100Jan 4, 2024-25 · forecast MIA116–110 · missed margin by 42
64%MIA beat CHI134–91Feb 1, 2025-26 · forecast MIA122–117 · missed margin by 38
34%MIA beat MEM146–114Oct 24, 2025-26 · forecast MEM120–114 · missed margin by 38

Definitions

Expected wins: The sum of the team's pregame win probabilities over the games in the sample (home: the stored home win probability; road: one minus it).
Wins vs expectation: Actual wins minus expected wins. It describes results relative to the forecasts, not why they differed.
Margin error: The team's actual margin minus its forecast margin, in points. Positive means the team did better than forecast.
Error variability: The sample standard deviation of margin errors. Higher means the forecasts for this team's games were less consistent.
Winner picked: The share of the team's games in which the forecast winner won, whichever team that was. Teams play different mixes of close and lopsided games, so this alone is not a fair measure of how hard a team is to forecast.
Average margin miss: The mean absolute margin error. This is the headline measure of how hard a team's games were for this model to forecast.
Average margin error: The mean signed margin error. Consistently positive means the model underrated the team in this sample; negative, overrated.
Brier score: The mean squared difference between the team's pregame win probability and the result (1 for a win, 0 for a loss). It rewards confident correct forecasts and penalises confident wrong ones.
Intervals and samples: Ranges are 90% bootstrap intervals (1,000 resamples of the team's games). Under 20 games no ranking is shown; 20 to 59 games is exploratory; 60 or more is roughly a full season.

More on how forecasts are made and tested: Methodology.

Upcoming

Recent results

Predictability

2026-27 (in progress)

2025-26

2024-25

2023-24

2022-23

2022-23 to 2026-27

Surprise games

Most unexpected MIA wins

Most unexpected MIA losses

Largest margin misses

Recent results the forecast got wrong

Definitions