2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Orlando Magic at San Antonio Spurs

Tuesday, March 14, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

ORL 3–0@SAS 3–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
ORL Orlando Magic	122	114	−8
SAS San Antonio Spurs (home)	111	132	+21

Forecast: Orlando Magic to win, 76% win probability, projected margin 11.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	ORL	SAS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1454	1281
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−103
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−2.7	−10.0
Games played this season	68	67
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	113.5	106.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	116.0	115.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	101.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	23.6
Rest days	3	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingORL1454SAS1281

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

ORL1454

Ended last season at 1336 → started this one at 1377
First 58 games: +97.0
Last 10 games: −19.6

L@TOR113–123−6.7
WDET108–106+2.0
LIND108–121−19.1
W@NOP101–93+12.5
L@MIL117–139−5.5
W@CHA117–106+11.7
LPOR119–122−8.5
LMIL123–134−6.7
LUTA124–131−11.3
WMIA126–114+12.0

SAS1281

Ended last season at 1486 → started this one at 1489
First 57 games: −204.9
Last 10 games: −3.1

L@CLE109–117−1.2
L@CHA110–120−5.1
L@DAL116–142−4.7
L@UTA102–118−4.0
W@UTA102–94+19.5
WIND110–99+13.8
LHOU110–122−16.5
L@HOU110–142−17.7
WDEN128–120+18.8
LOKC90–102−6.0

Season scoring marginORL−2.7SAS−10.0

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

ORL−2.7

Scores 111.6, allows 114.3 over 68 games: −2.7 a game.

SAS−10.0

Scores 112.0, allows 122.0 over 67 games: −10.0 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10ORL113.5SAS106.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 113.8).

ORL113.5scored, −0.3 vs league

Factor	ORL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.1%	54.6%	−2.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.2%	12.1%	−0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.1%	23.7%	+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.218	0.213	+0.2
Everything else			+0.8

SAS106.5scored, −7.4 vs league

Factor	SAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.9%	54.6%	−5.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.8%	12.1%	−1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.9%	23.7%	+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.161	0.213	−1.5
Everything else			−0.3

Defensive rating, last 10ORL116.0SAS115.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 113.8).

ORL116.0allowed, +2.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.2%	54.6%	−5.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.2%	12.1%	+2.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.0%	23.7%	+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.232	0.213	−0.6
Everything else			−0.3

SAS115.5allowed, +1.7 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.6%	54.6%	−1.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.7%	12.1%	−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.6%	23.7%	+0.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.233	0.213	−0.6
Everything else			+1.0

Pace, last 10average 101.5

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

ORL 101.1 and SAS 102.0 → average 101.5 (league 2022-23 to date: 99.8)

Rotation points missingORL0.0SAS23.6

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

ORL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-03-14 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

SAS23.6pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Malaki Branham	11.8	26.0	9
Tre Jones	9.3	23.8	3
Romeo Langford	2.5	19.5	2

Source: official injury report, 2023-03-14 17:30 ET. 13 rotation players.

RestORL3 daysSAS2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

ORL3days

Last played Mar 11 against MIA.

SAS2days

Last played Mar 12 against OKC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

ORL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 11	MIA	126–114	48-99	13-37	17-20	18	15	115.6	103.6	99.2
Mar 9	UTA	124–131	44-94	16-34	20-31	10	12	122.8	129.7	101.0
Mar 7	MIL	123–134	50-100	9-30	14-19	13	10	115.0	125.2	107.0
Mar 5	POR	119–122	42-84	11-31	24-31	11	6	116.7	119.6	102.0
Mar 3	@CHA	117–106	46-86	10-26	15-19	18	13	118.2	106.0	99.5
Mar 1	@MIL	117–139	43-94	9-33	22-29	13	12	111.4	132.4	105.0
Feb 27	@NOP	101–93	36-79	9-34	20-26	15	11	106.3	97.9	95.0
Feb 25	IND	108–121	35-90	6-29	32-38	13	15	108.0	118.6	101.0
Feb 23	DET	108–106	39-95	12-31	18-23	12	12	106.9	102.9	102.0
Feb 14	@TOR	113–123	43-84	13-31	14-18	18	9	114.1	124.2	99.0

SAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 12	OKC	90–102	33-88	10-36	14-19	18	10	89.1	100.0	101.5
Mar 10	DEN	128–120	51-94	13-33	13-17	18	13	119.6	113.2	106.5
Mar 5	@HOU	110–142	43-93	11-34	13-21	15	13	106.8	136.5	103.5
Mar 4	HOU	110–122	38-86	15-37	19-20	14	13	112.2	125.8	97.5
Mar 2	IND	110–99	45-98	10-32	10-13	15	13	108.9	96.1	102.0
Feb 28	@UTA	102–94	39-91	8-26	16-25	12	9	100.0	92.2	102.0
Feb 25	@UTA	102–118	38-97	9-34	17-21	9	9	99.0	115.7	102.5
Feb 23	@DAL	116–142	45-86	10-25	16-23	16	10	113.7	140.6	101.5
Feb 15	@CHA	110–120	41-107	13-38	15-20	15	20	100.9	112.1	108.0
Feb 13	@CLE	109–117	43-85	8-21	15-20	16	11	114.7	123.2	95.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games

24%

pregame chance the forecast gave SAS, the winner

the forecast favored ORL

29 pts

margin miss

forecast −11, actual +18 for SAS

22nd

most surprising result of 2022-23

of 1,314 graded games

32nd

largest margin miss of 2022-23

outcome surprise 1.43 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	ORL	SAS
Final score	114	132
Field goals	44–97 · 45.4%	48–85 · 56.5%
Three-pointers	10–29 · 34.5%	22–41 · 53.7%
Free throws	16–21 · 76.2%	14–18 · 77.8%
Rebounds	42	47
Assists	24	39
Turnovers	9	14
Steals	7	6
Blocks	2	7

How the model does with these teams over time: Orlando Magic · San Antonio Spurs

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (SAS)	−11	+18	+29
Total points	233	246	+13
ORL points	122	114	−8
SAS points	111	132	+21

Recent form before this game

Orlando Magic

Date	Opponent	Result
Mar 11	vs MIA	W 126–114
Mar 9	vs UTA	L 124–131
Mar 7	vs MIL	L 123–134
Mar 5	vs POR	L 119–122
Mar 3	at CHA	W 117–106

San Antonio Spurs

Date	Opponent	Result
Mar 12	vs OKC	L 90–102
Mar 10	vs DEN	W 128–120
Mar 5	at HOU	L 110–142
Mar 4	vs HOU	L 110–122
Mar 2	vs IND	W 110–99

Previous meetings

Date	Matchup	Score
Dec 23 2022-23	SAS at ORL	SAS 113 – 133 ORL
Nov 5 2021-22	SAS at ORL	SAS 102 – 89 ORL
Oct 20 2021-22	ORL at SAS	ORL 97 – 123 SAS