2025-26 · Playoffs · Final

San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder

Saturday, May 30, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

SAS 3–4@OKC 3–7 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
SAS San Antonio Spurs	109	111	+2
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder (home)	106	103	−3

Forecast: San Antonio Spurs to win, 67% win probability, projected margin 3.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

No saved inputs are stored with this game's forecast.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

67%

pregame chance the forecast gave SAS, the winner

SAS was the forecast favorite

5 pts

margin miss

forecast −3, actual −8 for OKC

885th

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

901st

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 0.40 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	SAS	OKC
Final score	111	103
Field goals	40–88 · 45.5%	37–83 · 44.6%
Three-pointers	17–40 · 42.5%	12–35 · 34.3%
Free throws	14–19 · 73.7%	17–22 · 77.3%
Rebounds	40	38
Assists	21	23
Turnovers	12	13
Steals	9	9
Blocks	2	5

How the model does with these teams over time: San Antonio Spurs · Oklahoma City Thunder

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (OKC)	−3	−8	−5
Total points	215	214	−1
SAS points	109	111	+2
OKC points	106	103	−3

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-05-30 17:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.