2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks

Sunday, April 9, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

SAS 6–3@DAL 1–5 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
SAS San Antonio Spurs	114	138	+24
DAL Dallas Mavericks (home)	124	117	−7

Forecast: Dallas Mavericks to win, 74% win probability, projected margin 10.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	SAS	DAL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1292	1471
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+250
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−10.4	+0.3
Games played this season	81	81
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	106.6	117.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	124.8	119.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	101.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	74.8	88.2
Rest days	1	2
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAS1292DAL1471

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAS1292

Ended last season at 1486 → started this one at 1489
First 71 games: −181.7
Last 10 games: −16.0

L@NOP84–119−9.4
L@MIL94–130−3.3
L@WAS124–136−4.2
L@BOS93–137−3.6
LUTA117–128−8.5
L@GSW115–130−2.6
W@SAC142–134+23.1
L@PHX94–115−3.1
WPOR129–127+4.4
LMIN131–151−8.8

DAL1471

Ended last season at 1615 → started this one at 1586
First 71 games: −91.4
Last 10 games: −23.8

L@MEM108–112−3.1
LGSW125–127−5.4
LCHA109–117−15.6
L@CHA104–110−7.9
W@IND127–104+20.0
L@PHI108–116−3.4
L@MIA122–129−6.1
L@ATL130–132−3.5
WSAC123–119+7.1
LCHI112–115−5.9

Season scoring marginSAS−10.4DAL+0.3

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAS−10.4

Scores 112.7, allows 123.1 over 81 games: −10.4 a game.

DAL+0.3

Scores 114.2, allows 113.9 over 81 games: +0.3 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10SAS106.6DAL117.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.2).

SAS106.6scored, −7.6 vs league

Factor	SAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.5%	54.7%	−6.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.2%	12.0%	+1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.4%	23.8%	−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.165	0.211	−1.3
Everything else			−0.5

DAL117.5scored, +3.4 vs league

Factor	DAL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.2%	54.7%	+5.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.7%	12.0%	+1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	14.9%	23.8%	−4.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.195	0.211	−0.5
Everything else			+0.7

Defensive rating, last 10SAS124.8DAL119.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.2).

SAS124.8allowed, +10.7 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	61.3%	54.7%	−9.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.3%	12.0%	−0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.0%	23.8%	+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.188	0.211	+0.7
Everything else			−0.8

DAL119.3allowed, +5.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.3%	54.7%	+0.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	9.5%	12.0%	−3.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.4%	23.8%	−2.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.210	0.211	+0.1
Everything else			−0.2

Pace, last 10average 101.1

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAS 104.0 and DAL 98.2 → average 101.1 (league 2022-23 to date: 99.8)

Rotation points missingSAS74.8DAL88.2

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAS74.8pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Keldon Johnson	25.3	31.6	3
Zach Collins	16.4	27.6	5
Devin Vassell	12.5	28.1	2
Doug McDermott	12.4	18.8	5
Devonte' Graham	8.1	22.9	7

Source: official injury report, 2023-04-09 17:30 ET. 14 rotation players.

DAL88.2pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Luka Dončić	28.8	35.9	9
Kyrie Irving	24.8	38.4	8
Tim Hardaway Jr.	16.0	31.0	7
Reggie Bullock Jr.	6.8	28.8	10
Josh Green	6.7	26.5	9
Maxi Kleber	5.2	23.6	8

Source: official injury report, 2023-04-09 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestSAS1 daysDAL2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAS1day, back-to-back

Last played Apr 8 against MIN.

DAL2days

Last played Apr 7 against CHI.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 8	MIN	131–151	50-95	13-29	18-24	13	10	123.6	141.1	106.5
Apr 6	POR	129–127	47-106	10-35	25-28	14	18	119.4	117.6	108.0
Apr 4	@PHX	94–115	35-90	13-40	11-14	12	9	96.9	117.3	97.5
Apr 2	@SAC	142–134	52-98	13-34	25-29	17	14	124.6	117.5	103.2
Mar 31	@GSW	115–130	42-91	15-38	16-23	13	14	115.0	131.3	99.5
Mar 29	UTA	117–128	45-95	10-35	17-21	15	9	108.3	119.6	107.5
Mar 26	@BOS	93–137	36-97	8-36	13-18	10	3	85.3	128.0	108.0
Mar 24	@WAS	124–136	51-101	13-38	9-15	5	11	124.0	138.8	99.0
Mar 22	@MIL	94–130	36-93	9-39	13-20	19	8	84.7	118.2	110.5
Mar 21	@NOP	84–119	30-87	13-41	11-19	14	10	84.0	119.0	100.0

DAL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 7	CHI	112–115	42-93	18-55	10-13	9	7	110.9	115.0	100.5
Apr 5	SAC	123–119	44-89	20-44	15-18	10	7	125.5	122.7	97.5
Apr 2	@ATL	130–132	49-95	10-38	22-32	14	10	115.0	115.8	102.8
Apr 1	@MIA	122–129	47-77	14-34	14-16	14	1	123.2	131.6	98.5
Mar 29	@PHI	108–116	38-83	18-46	14-18	14	8	116.1	124.7	93.0
Mar 27	@IND	127–104	47-83	18-37	15-17	13	4	129.6	106.1	98.0
Mar 26	@CHA	104–110	32-84	19-49	21-22	8	3	105.1	112.2	98.5
Mar 24	CHA	109–117	41-84	9-36	18-24	10	7	110.1	115.8	100.0
Mar 22	GSW	125–127	44-89	17-40	20-28	10	8	125.0	128.3	99.5
Mar 20	@MEM	108–112	39-84	11-36	19-20	12	8	114.9	120.4	93.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games

26%

pregame chance the forecast gave SAS, the winner

the forecast favored DAL

31 pts

margin miss

forecast +10, actual −21 for DAL

33rd

most surprising result of 2022-23

of 1,314 graded games

22nd

largest margin miss of 2022-23

outcome surprise 1.35 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	SAS	DAL
Final score	138	117
Field goals	51–104 · 49.0%	46–108 · 42.6%
Three-pointers	15–38 · 39.5%	17–53 · 32.1%
Free throws	21–30 · 70.0%	8–16 · 50.0%
Rebounds	69	46
Assists	31	28
Turnovers	12	2
Steals	2	4
Blocks	3	3

How the model does with these teams over time: San Antonio Spurs · Dallas Mavericks

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (DAL)	+10	−21	−31
Total points	238	255	+17
SAS points	114	138	+24
DAL points	124	117	−7

Recent form before this game