The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 24

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks

Saturday, October 24, 2026 · tip-off 8:00 PM ET

SAS 0–2@DAL 1–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: SAS 78 percent, DAL 22 percent. SAS Spurs 78% proj. 123 · final 122 DAL Mavericks · home 22% proj. 112 · final 106
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
SAS San Antonio Spurs 123 122 −1
DAL Dallas Mavericks (home) 112 106 −6

Forecast: San Antonio Spurs to win, 78% win probability, projected margin 11.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans SAS

  • Home court+2.1 DALWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+10.4 SASElo DAL 1401, SAS 1676; season margin DAL −4.9, SAS +6.5.
  • Recent form+2.3 SASLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: DAL scores 112.6 and allows 119.8; SAS scores 110.7 and allows 108.4.
  • Rest and schedule+0.3 SASDAL 1 days of rest, SAS 1. DAL and SAS on the second night of a back-to-back.

Together: SAS by 11, a 78% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

SAS is 0–2, losing by 8 a game on average (scoring 107, allowing 115). Last season they were a +8 team, which still counts for 90% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 50% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 7 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security +1.2. Their defense holds opponents to 50% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 7 points per 100 possessions. They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

DAL is 1–1, losing by 1 a game on average (scoring 116, allowing 116). Last season they were a −5 team, which still counts for 90% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 51% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 5 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security +2.2, offensive rebounding −1.1. Their defense lets opponents shoot 57% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 3 points per 100 possessions. Cooper Flagg (23 ppg) is out. They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors DAL; left favors SAS.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −10.4, Recent form −2.3, Rest and schedule −0.3, Player availability −0.3, No playoff context +0.3, giving −10.9 for DAL. -12-60+6+12 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −10.4 Recent form −2.3 Rest and schedule −0.3 Player availability −0.3 No playoff context +0.3 Projected margin −10.9
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −10.9. The 78% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputSASDALEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16761401 −2.1
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −206 −6.1
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +6.5−4.9 −2.2
Games played this season 22 +0.1
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 110.7112.6 +0.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 108.4119.8 −2.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.7 −0.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.023.0 −0.3
Rest days 11 −0.1
Second night of a back-to-back YesYes −0.2
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueDAL ptsSAS ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court-205.7−1.71+4.43−6.14
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)119.8+0.30+1.80−1.50
Elo rating (away)1676.4−1.57−0.18−1.40
Season scoring margin (away)6.5−0.92+0.23−1.16
Season scoring margin (home)-4.9−0.69+0.37−1.07
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)108.4−1.02−0.07−0.96
Elo rating (home)1400.7−0.08+0.62−0.70
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.18+0.49−0.67
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)110.7−0.03−0.67+0.64
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)112.6−0.44−0.01−0.43
Rotation points missing (home)23.0+0.47+0.09+0.39
Games played (home)2.0+0.54+0.24+0.30
Games played (away)2.0+0.01+0.25−0.23
Rest days (home)1.0−0.17+0.01−0.19
Home series wins0.0+0.24+0.06+0.19
Back-to-back (home)1−0.14+0.03−0.18
Series pressure0.0+0.06−0.00+0.06
Combined pace, last 10100.7+2.74+2.80−0.06
Rest days (away)1.0+0.04+0.00+0.04
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Back-to-back (away)1±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAS1676DAL14018.2 pts toward SAS

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAS1676

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1771 → started this one at 1703
  2. This season's 2 games: −26.9
  • LOKC104–116−15.8
  • LHOU110–114−11.1

DAL1401

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1350 → started this one at 1388
  2. This season's 2 games: +12.9
  • L@HOU110–128−4.9
  • W@IND121–105+17.8
Season scoring marginSAS+6.5DAL−4.92.2 pts toward SAS

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAS+6.5

Scores 107.0, allows 115.0 over 2 games: −8.0 a game.

10% this season (−8.0) + 90% last season (+8.2) = +6.5

DAL−4.9

Scores 115.5, allows 116.5 over 2 games: −1.0 a game.

10% this season (−1.0) + 90% last season (−5.3) = −4.9

Offensive rating, last 10SAS110.7DAL112.60.2 pts toward DAL

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

SAS110.7scored, −3.9 vs league

FactorSASLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.0%54.5%−6.9
Turnovers (TOV%)11.4%12.2%+1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.4%26.1%−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2380.210+0.8
Everything else+1.7

DAL112.6scored, −2.0 vs league

FactorDALLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.3%54.5%−4.9
Turnovers (TOV%)10.6%12.2%+2.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.5%26.1%−1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2390.210+0.8
Everything else+1.1
Defensive rating, last 10SAS108.4DAL119.82.5 pts toward SAS

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

SAS108.4allowed, −6.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.1%54.5%+6.7
Turnovers (TOV%)11.8%12.2%−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.2%26.1%+0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2230.210−0.4
Everything else−0.4

DAL119.8allowed, +5.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.8%54.5%−3.5
Turnovers (TOV%)11.6%12.2%−0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.7%26.1%−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2170.210−0.2
Everything else+0.1
Pace, last 10average 100.70.1 pts toward SAS

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAS 97.9 and DAL 103.5 → average 100.7 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingSAS0.0DAL23.00.3 pts toward SAS

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-24 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

DAL23.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Cooper Flagg23.025.02

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-24 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestSAS1 daysDAL1 days0.3 pts toward SAS

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAS1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 23 against HOU.

DAL1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 23 against IND.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 23HOU110–11440-8712-3718-25159112.2117.597.5
Oct 20OKC104–11636-9310-3722-251310102.0113.7102.0
Jun 10@NYK106–10736-8617-4317-201112112.8115.193.5
Jun 8@NYK115–11139-8412-3425-3286123.7119.493.0
Jun 5NYK104–10537-7811-2919-27165105.1108.298.0
Jun 3NYK95–10532-8911-4320-25131496.0105.099.5
May 30@OKC111–10340-8817-4014-191215120.7109.693.0
May 28OKC118–9141-8815-4121-251211119.291.099.5
May 26@OKC114–12737-9212-4128-321515112.9124.5101.5
May 24OKC103–8235-909-3324-321214102.080.4101.5

DAL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 23@IND121–10544-8814-3419-231411121.0105.0100.0
Oct 21@HOU110–12841-8011-3817-26218111.1130.698.5
Apr 12CHI149–12852-10022-4923-271815134.2114.3111.5
Apr 10@SAS120–13945-9815-4015-19712121.2139.099.5
Apr 8@PHX107–11237-8913-3620-22810112.6117.995.0
Apr 7@LAC103–11635-1006-3327-2881497.2109.4106.0
Apr 5LAL134–12846-8814-3228-3678131.4124.3102.5
Apr 3ORL127–13844-9514-4225-311311115.5126.6109.5
Mar 31@MIL99–12334-9610-3621-28141090.8111.8109.5
Mar 30MIN94–12431-897-2925-3415891.3119.2103.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
78%
pregame chance the forecast gave SAS, the winner
SAS was the forecast favorite
5 pts
margin miss
forecast −11, actual −16 for DAL
131st
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
102nd
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.24 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statSASDAL
Final score122106
Field goals48–101 · 47.5%45–87 · 51.7%
Three-pointers15–42 · 35.7%11–28 · 39.3%
Free throws11–16 · 68.8%5–8 · 62.5%
Rebounds4342
Assists3429
Turnovers1218
Steals128
Blocks86

How the model does with these teams over time: San Antonio Spurs · Dallas Mavericks

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (DAL)−11−16−5
Total points235228−7
SAS points123122−1
DAL points112106−6

Recent form before this game

San Antonio Spurs

DateOpponentResult
Oct 23 vs HOU L 110–114
Oct 20 vs OKC L 104–116
Jun 10 at NYK L 106–107
Jun 8 at NYK W 115–111
Jun 5 vs NYK L 104–105

Dallas Mavericks

DateOpponentResult
Oct 23 at IND W 121–105
Oct 21 at HOU L 110–128
Apr 12 vs CHI W 149–128
Apr 10 at SAS L 120–139
Apr 8 at PHX L 107–112

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 10 2025-26 DAL at SAS DAL 120 – 139 SAS
Feb 7 2025-26 DAL at SAS DAL 125 – 138 SAS
Feb 5 2025-26 SAS at DAL SAS 135 – 123 DAL
Oct 22 2025-26 SAS at DAL SAS 125 – 92 DAL
Mar 12 2024-25 DAL at SAS DAL 116 – 126 SAS