The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Dec 31

2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Los Angeles Clippers at San Antonio Spurs

Tuesday, December 31, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

LAC 1–2@SAS 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: LAC 54 percent, SAS 46 percent. LAC Clippers 54% proj. 114 · final 86 SAS Spurs · home 46% proj. 112 · final 122
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
LAC Los Angeles Clippers 114 86 −28
SAS San Antonio Spurs (home) 112 122 +10

Forecast: Los Angeles Clippers to win, 54% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputLACSAS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15681447
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −51
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +2.3−0.8
Games played this season 3232
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 111.3111.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 108.7112.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 12
Second night of a back-to-back YesNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingLAC1568SAS1447

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

LAC1568

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1508 → started this one at 1506
  2. First 22 games: +52.2
  3. Last 10 games: +10.1
  • WPOR127–105+5.9
  • LMIN80–108−26.8
  • LHOU106–117−12.3
  • L@DEN98–120−10.5
  • WUTA144–107+9.6
  • W@DAL118–95+33.0
  • L@DAL97–113−7.9
  • W@MEM114–110+8.9
  • WGSW102–92+7.4
  • W@NOP116–113+2.8

SAS1447

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1400 → started this one at 1425
  2. First 22 games: +26.2
  3. Last 10 games: −3.8
  • LSAC113–140−21.8
  • WNOP121–116+4.2
  • W@POR118–116+4.4
  • LMIN92–106−8.8
  • WATL133–126+8.3
  • WPOR114–94+8.0
  • L@PHI106–111−5.4
  • L@NYK114–117−1.8
  • W@BKN96–87+11.2
  • L@MIN110–112−2.1
Season scoring marginLAC+2.3SAS−0.8

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

LAC+2.3

Scores 109.6, allows 107.3 over 32 games: +2.3 a game.

SAS−0.8

Scores 111.1, allows 112.0 over 32 games: −0.8 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10LAC111.3SAS111.0

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.5).

LAC111.3scored, −1.3 vs league

FactorLACLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.6%54.1%+2.2
Turnovers (TOV%)14.4%12.5%−2.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.3%24.6%−1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1910.196−0.1
Everything else+0.9

SAS111.0scored, −1.5 vs league

FactorSASLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.3%54.1%−1.2
Turnovers (TOV%)12.8%12.5%−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.7%24.6%−0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2000.196+0.1
Everything else+0.3
Defensive rating, last 10LAC108.7SAS112.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.5).

LAC108.7allowed, −3.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.3%54.1%+1.2
Turnovers (TOV%)14.4%12.5%+2.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.9%24.6%−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2080.196−0.3
Everything else+0.9

SAS112.3allowed, −0.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.0%54.1%+3.2
Turnovers (TOV%)10.4%12.5%−3.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.1%24.6%−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1530.196+1.3
Everything else−0.9
Pace, last 10average 99.3

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

LAC 99.4 and SAS 99.3 → average 99.3 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.9)

Rotation points missingLAC0.0SAS0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

LAC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-12-31 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

SAS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-12-31 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestLAC1 daysSAS2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

LAC1day, back-to-back

Last played Dec 30 against NOP.

SAS2days

Last played Dec 29 against MIN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

LAC

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 30@NOP116–11341-8613-3721-271612119.6115.397.5
Dec 27GSW102–9240-7510-3212-15216104.194.897.5
Dec 23@MEM114–11042-969-2721-261715106.5102.8107.0
Dec 21@DAL97–11334-8110-3719-22177100.0118.996.0
Dec 19@DAL118–9544-8514-3316-17136120.496.998.0
Dec 16UTA144–10749-8221-3925-32146139.8101.9104.0
Dec 13@DEN98–12037-8314-4110-1819492.5112.1106.5
Dec 8HOU106–11741-9211-3413-1677111.6123.295.0
Dec 4MIN80–10829-8311-4011-1321980.0106.9100.5
Dec 3POR127–10547-8519-3714-171310138.0114.192.0

SAS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 29@MIN110–11238-8711-3923-2898113.4115.597.0
Dec 27@BKN96–8732-7812-2820-271311101.193.594.0
Dec 25@NYK114–11742-8316-3814-17158118.8120.696.5
Dec 23@PHI106–11137-8115-4517-18183105.0109.9101.0
Dec 21POR114–9444-9310-3616-181212116.395.998.0
Dec 19ATL133–12649-10119-4216-23178113.7109.6105.1
Dec 15MIN92–10637-9111-457-9181292.9106.099.5
Dec 13@POR118–11644-8514-3016-211413121.6120.896.5
Dec 8NOP121–11642-9312-3925-311316117.5114.9102.0
Dec 6SAC113–14039-9114-4121-301412109.7135.9103.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games
46%
pregame chance the forecast gave SAS, the winner
the forecast favored LAC
38 pts
margin miss
forecast −2, actual +36 for SAS
370th
most surprising result of 2024-25
of 1,309 graded games
14th
largest margin miss of 2024-25
outcome surprise 0.77 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statLACSAS
Final score86122
Field goals30–87 · 34.5%48–98 · 49.0%
Three-pointers11–41 · 26.8%9–40 · 22.5%
Free throws15–18 · 83.3%17–19 · 89.5%
Rebounds4158
Assists1737
Turnovers139
Steals710
Blocks37

How the model does with these teams over time: Los Angeles Clippers · San Antonio Spurs

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (SAS)−2+36+38
Total points226208−18
LAC points11486−28
SAS points112122+10

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
LAC17262023–86
SAS31322831–122

Recent form before this game

Los Angeles Clippers

DateOpponentResult
Dec 30 at NOP W 116–113
Dec 27 vs GSW W 102–92
Dec 23 at MEM W 114–110
Dec 21 at DAL L 97–113
Dec 19 at DAL W 118–95

San Antonio Spurs

DateOpponentResult
Dec 29 at MIN L 110–112
Dec 27 at BKN W 96–87
Dec 25 at NYK L 114–117
Dec 23 at PHI L 106–111
Dec 21 vs POR W 114–94

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Nov 4 2024-25 SAS at LAC SAS 104 – 113 LAC
Nov 22 2023-24 LAC at SAS LAC 109 – 102 SAS
Nov 20 2023-24 LAC at SAS LAC 124 – 99 SAS
Oct 29 2023-24 SAS at LAC SAS 83 – 123 LAC
Jan 26 2022-23 SAS at LAC SAS 100 – 138 LAC