The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Mar 2

2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Indiana Pacers at San Antonio Spurs

Thursday, March 2, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

IND 1–0@SAS 1–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: IND 70 percent, SAS 30 percent. IND Pacers 70% proj. 121 · final 99 SAS Spurs · home 30% proj. 113 · final 110
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
IND Indiana Pacers 121 99 −22
SAS San Antonio Spurs (home) 113 110 −3

Forecast: Indiana Pacers to win, 70% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputINDSAS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 14251289
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −66
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −2.3−10.2
Games played this season 6362
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 115.9104.8
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 120.2117.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 100.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.026.4
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingIND1425SAS1289

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

IND1425

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1363 → started this one at 1397
  2. First 53 games: +31.5
  3. Last 10 games: −3.4
  • WSAC107–104+6.4
  • LCLE103–122−12.1
  • L@MIA111–116−2.9
  • LPHX104–117−10.9
  • L@WAS113–127−6.7
  • LUTA117–123−7.9
  • WCHI117–113+6.7
  • LBOS138–142−3.1
  • W@ORL121–108+19.1
  • W@DAL124–122+8.0

SAS1289

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1486 → started this one at 1489
  2. First 52 games: −182.9
  3. Last 10 games: −17.6
  • LPHI125–137−4.6
  • L@CHI104–128−5.1
  • L@TOR98–112−3.3
  • L@DET131–138−5.3
  • L@ATL106–125−3.8
  • L@CLE109–117−1.2
  • L@CHA110–120−5.1
  • L@DAL116–142−4.7
  • L@UTA102–118−4.0
  • W@UTA102–94+19.5
Season scoring marginIND−2.3SAS−10.2

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

IND−2.3

Scores 115.1, allows 117.5 over 63 games: −2.3 a game.

SAS−10.2

Scores 112.2, allows 122.4 over 62 games: −10.2 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10IND115.9SAS104.8

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 113.7).

IND115.9scored, +2.1 vs league

FactorINDLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.7%54.5%+1.8
Turnovers (TOV%)10.9%12.1%+1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.9%23.8%−1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2020.213−0.3
Everything else+0.2

SAS104.8scored, −8.9 vs league

FactorSASLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.2%54.5%−6.4
Turnovers (TOV%)12.9%12.1%−1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.9%23.8%−0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1820.213−0.9
Everything else−0.1
Defensive rating, last 10IND120.2SAS117.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 113.7).

IND120.2allowed, +6.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.3%54.5%−2.7
Turnovers (TOV%)12.4%12.1%+0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.3%23.8%−2.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2530.213−1.1
Everything else−0.5

SAS117.3allowed, +3.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.1%54.5%−0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)11.3%12.1%−1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.7%23.8%−1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2640.213−1.5
Everything else+1.3
Pace, last 10average 100.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

IND 98.6 and SAS 103.1 → average 100.9 (league 2022-23 to date: 99.8)

Rotation points missingIND0.0SAS26.4

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

IND0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-03-02 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

SAS26.4pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Keldon Johnson21.933.29
Isaiah Roby4.515.86

Source: official injury report, 2023-03-02 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestIND2 daysSAS2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

IND2days

Last played Feb 28 against DAL.

SAS2days

Last played Feb 28 against UTA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

IND

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Feb 28@DAL124–12241-7811-2831-4095126.5122.099.0
Feb 25@ORL121–10848-9915-4010-14710118.6108.0101.0
Feb 23BOS138–14249-9422-4918-221410131.4136.594.6
Feb 15CHI117–11339-8218-4321-22176115.8114.1100.0
Feb 13UTA117–12346-9111-3414-20118115.8120.6101.5
Feb 11@WAS113–12743-9514-4013-17717122.8139.691.5
Feb 10PHX104–11736-8511-3921-281511104.0114.7101.0
Feb 8@MIA111–11638-7815-3320-28115116.8122.195.0
Feb 5CLE103–12240-928-3215-221312105.1124.598.0
Feb 3SAC107–10440-8917-4110-14169101.9100.0104.5

SAS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Feb 28@UTA102–9439-918-2616-25129100.092.2102.0
Feb 25@UTA102–11838-979-3417-219999.0115.7102.5
Feb 23@DAL116–14245-8610-2516-231610113.7140.6101.5
Feb 15@CHA110–12041-10713-3815-201520100.9112.1108.0
Feb 13@CLE109–11743-858-2115-201611114.7123.295.0
Feb 11@ATL106–12540-9411-3715-171914100.0117.9106.0
Feb 10@DET131–13845-10714-4227-341713106.5113.1101.4
Feb 8@TOR98–11235-879-3219-2712794.2106.7104.5
Feb 6@CHI104–12840-908-2616-1718695.4118.5108.5
Feb 3PHI125–13752-897-2114-15189123.8133.0102.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games
30%
pregame chance the forecast gave SAS, the winner
the forecast favored IND
19 pts
margin miss
forecast −8, actual +11 for SAS
69th
most surprising result of 2022-23
of 1,314 graded games
181st
largest margin miss of 2022-23
outcome surprise 1.20 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statINDSAS
Final score99110
Field goals41–90 · 45.6%45–98 · 45.9%
Three-pointers8–23 · 34.8%10–32 · 31.3%
Free throws9–11 · 81.8%10–13 · 76.9%
Rebounds4050
Assists2331
Turnovers1415
Steals115
Blocks86

How the model does with these teams over time: Indiana Pacers · San Antonio Spurs

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (SAS)−8+11+19
Total points234209−25
IND points12199−22
SAS points113110−3

Recent form before this game

Indiana Pacers

DateOpponentResult
Feb 28 at DAL W 124–122
Feb 25 at ORL W 121–108
Feb 23 vs BOS L 138–142
Feb 15 vs CHI W 117–113
Feb 13 vs UTA L 117–123

San Antonio Spurs

DateOpponentResult
Feb 28 at UTA W 102–94
Feb 25 at UTA L 102–118
Feb 23 at DAL L 116–142
Feb 15 at CHA L 110–120
Feb 13 at CLE L 109–117

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Oct 21 2022-23 SAS at IND SAS 137 – 134 IND
Mar 12 2021-22 IND at SAS IND 119 – 108 SAS
Nov 1 2021-22 SAS at IND SAS 118 – 131 IND