Western Conference · 2026-27

Los Angeles Lakers LAL

9–2

2026-27 record

1594

Elo rating

with the forecast of Nov 8

121.2

Offensive rating

last 10 games

113.5

Defensive rating

last 10, lower is better

100.5

Pace

possessions per game

Hover the ball to see a season.

Every graded LAL game, one dot each, oldest at the center. 241 of 375 forecasts picked the winner (colored dots).

Elo rating, recent games

Pregame Elo stored with each of LAL's last 82 forecasts. Dashed: 1500, the long-run average.

Elo rating recorded with each team's most recent forecast. Higher is stronger; 1500 is the long-run average. LAL ranks 8 of 30.

Upcoming

Schedule

Nov 9 7:00 PM ET

LAL Los Angeles Lakers 9–2 –

@ATL Atlanta Hawks 7–4 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 11 8:00 PM ET

LAL Los Angeles Lakers 9–2 –

@MIL Milwaukee Bucks 1–9 –

Forecast coming Details

Recent results

Predictability

How closely the forecasts tracked LAL games. A team can be hard for this model to forecast whether it is good or bad: misses come from the model's limits, roster changes, missing information and ordinary game-to-game variation. Compare all 30 teams

2026-27 (in progress)

Small sample: 11 games. These figures are a running log, not a measurement, and no ranking is shown.

9.6 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 6.3 to 13.0

+4.7

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -0.7 to 10.1

11.5 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.7

64%

winner picked

11 games involving LAL

9 / 6.3

actual / expected wins

gap +2.7

0.212

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 11 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	LAL win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 8	at DET	39%	109–113	W 121–116	✗missed	+9
Nov 6	vs POR	64%	119–114	W 124–118	✓correct	+1
Nov 4	at SAC	77%	124–112	W 116–103	✓correct	+1
Nov 2	vs MIA	59%	120–117	W 138–117	✓correct	+18
Nov 1	vs TOR	53%	114–113	W 131–125	✓correct	+5
Oct 30	at GSW	56%	116–114	L 95–112	✗missed	−19
Oct 28	at LAC	39%	111–115	W 103–87	✗missed	+20
Oct 27	vs POR	53%	112–111	L 129–136	✗missed	−8
Oct 25	at UTA	67%	123–117	W 132–123	✓correct	+3
Oct 23	vs LAC	56%	113–111	W 125–117	✓correct	+6
Oct 21	vs GSW	67%	116–110	W 127–105	✓correct	+16

2025-26

11.3 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.9 to 12.5; 14th smallest of 30

+0.0

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.4 to 2.4

13.8 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.4

63%

winner picked

92 games involving LAL

57 / 48.2

actual / expected wins

gap +8.8

0.207

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 92 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	LAL win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
May 11 PO	vs OKC	24%	96–106	L 110–115	✓correct	+5
May 9 PO	vs OKC	17%	95–109	L 108–131	✓correct	−9
May 7 PO	at OKC	36%	102–107	L 107–125	✓correct	−13
May 5 PO	at OKC	41%	105–108	L 90–108	✓correct	−15
May 1 PO	at HOU	40%	105–109	W 98–78	✗missed	+24
Apr 29 PO	vs HOU	59%	104–101	L 93–99	✗missed	−9
Apr 26 PO	at HOU	35%	102–108	L 96–115	✓correct	−13
Apr 24 PO	at HOU	35%	101–107	W 112–108	✗missed	+10
Apr 21 PO	vs HOU	42%	102–105	W 101–94	✗missed	+10
Apr 18 PO	vs HOU	47%	106–107	W 107–98	✗missed	+10
Apr 12	vs UTA	85%	124–109	W 131–107	✓correct	+9
Apr 10	vs PHX	53%	114–113	W 101–73	✓correct	+27
Apr 9	at GSW	53%	117–116	W 119–103	✓correct	+15
Apr 7	vs OKC	29%	113–121	L 87–123	✓correct	−28
Apr 5	at DAL	74%	125–116	L 128–134	✗missed	−15
Apr 2	at OKC	31%	111–118	L 96–139	✓correct	−36
Mar 31	vs CLE	61%	117–113	W 127–113	✓correct	+10
Mar 30	vs WAS	85%	124–109	W 120–101	✓correct	+4
Mar 27	vs BKN	80%	117–105	W 116–99	✓correct	+5
Mar 25	at IND	71%	120–112	W 137–130	✓correct	−1
Mar 23	at DET	47%	112–113	L 110–113	✓correct	−2
Mar 21	at ORL	44%	116–118	W 105–104	✗missed	+3
Mar 19	at MIA	47%	116–117	W 134–126	✗missed	+9
Mar 18	at HOU	56%	114–112	W 124–116	✓correct	+6
Mar 16	at HOU	53%	114–113	W 100–92	✓correct	+7
Mar 14	vs DEN	61%	118–114	W 127–125	✓correct	−2
Mar 12	vs CHI	78%	121–110	W 142–130	✓correct	+1
Mar 10	vs MIN	61%	117–113	W 120–106	✓correct	+10
Mar 8	vs NYK	36%	107–112	W 110–97	✗missed	+18
Mar 6	vs IND	78%	122–111	W 128–117	✓correct	±0
Mar 5	at DEN	36%	114–119	L 113–120	✓correct	−2
Mar 3	vs NOP	67%	120–114	W 110–101	✓correct	+3
Mar 1	vs SAC	82%	122–109	W 128–104	✓correct	+11
Feb 28	at GSW	44%	114–116	W 129–101	✗missed	+30
Feb 26	at PHX	66%	112–106	L 110–113	✗missed	−9
Feb 24	vs ORL	53%	115–114	L 109–110	✗missed	−2
Feb 22	vs BOS	42%	110–113	L 89–111	✓correct	−19
Feb 20	vs LAC	53%	114–113	W 125–122	✓correct	+2
Feb 12	vs DAL	56%	118–116	W 124–104	✓correct	+18
Feb 10	vs SAS	34%	112–118	L 108–136	✓correct	−22
Feb 9	vs OKC	53%	114–113	L 110–119	✗missed	−10
Feb 7	vs GSW	61%	117–113	W 105–99	✓correct	+2
Feb 5	vs PHI	53%	116–115	W 119–115	✓correct	+3
Feb 3	at BKN	64%	114–109	W 125–109	✓correct	+11
Feb 1	at NYK	36%	110–115	L 100–112	✓correct	−7
Jan 30	at WAS	76%	119–109	W 142–111	✓correct	+21
Jan 28	at CLE	47%	115–116	L 99–129	✓correct	−29
Jan 26	at CHI	47%	115–116	W 129–118	✗missed	+12
Jan 24	at DAL	53%	116–115	W 116–110	✓correct	+5
Jan 22	at LAC	47%	113–114	L 104–112	✓correct	−7
Jan 20	at DEN	41%	111–114	W 115–107	✗missed	+11
Jan 18	vs TOR	44%	112–114	W 110–93	✗missed	+19
Jan 17	at POR	41%	112–115	L 116–132	✓correct	−13
Jan 15	vs CHA	47%	114–115	L 117–135	✓correct	−17
Jan 13	vs ATL	44%	115–117	W 141–116	✗missed	+27
Jan 12	at SAC	64%	113–108	L 112–124	✗missed	−17
Jan 9	vs MIL	53%	114–113	L 101–105	✗missed	−5
Jan 7	at SAS	31%	113–120	L 91–107	✓correct	−9
Jan 6	at NOP	66%	121–115	W 111–103	✓correct	+2
Jan 4	vs MEM	53%	119–118	W 120–114	✓correct	+5
Jan 2	vs MEM	44%	116–118	W 128–121	✗missed	+9
Dec 30	vs DET	34%	111–117	L 106–128	✓correct	−16
Dec 28	vs SAC	69%	117–110	W 125–101	✓correct	+17
Dec 25	vs HOU	36%	113–118	L 96–119	✓correct	−18
Dec 23	at PHX	44%	114–116	L 108–132	✓correct	−22
Dec 20	at LAC	47%	114–115	L 88–103	✓correct	−14
Dec 18	at UTA	61%	120–116	W 143–135	✓correct	+4
Dec 14	at PHX	47%	114–115	W 116–114	✗missed	+3
Dec 10	vs SAS	64%	122–117	L 119–132	✗missed	−18
Dec 7	at PHI	47%	115–116	W 112–108	✗missed	+5
Dec 5	at BOS	36%	114–119	L 105–126	✓correct	−16
Dec 4	at TOR	44%	113–115	W 123–120	✗missed	+5
Dec 1	vs PHX	59%	119–116	L 108–125	✗missed	−20
Nov 30	vs NOP	90%	126–107	W 133–121	✓correct	−7
Nov 28	vs DAL	76%	121–111	W 129–119	✓correct	±0
Nov 25	vs LAC	67%	117–111	W 135–118	✓correct	+11
Nov 23	at UTA	74%	123–114	W 108–106	✓correct	−7
Nov 18	vs UTA	78%	123–112	W 140–126	✓correct	+3
Nov 15	at MIL	47%	118–119	W 119–95	✗missed	+25
Nov 14	at NOP	76%	119–109	W 118–104	✓correct	+4
Nov 12	at OKC	15%	111–126	L 92–121	✓correct	−14
Nov 10	at CHA	81%	124–111	W 121–111	✓correct	−3
Nov 8	at ATL	58%	116–113	L 102–122	✗missed	−23
Nov 5	vs SAS	59%	117–114	W 118–116	✓correct	−1
Nov 3	at POR	34%	110–116	W 123–115	✗missed	+14
Nov 2	vs MIA	59%	116–113	W 130–120	✓correct	+7
Oct 31	at MEM	47%	117–118	W 117–112	✗missed	+6
Oct 29	at MIN	31%	107–114	W 116–115	✗missed	+8
Oct 27	vs POR	53%	114–113	L 108–122	✗missed	−15
Oct 26	at SAC	36%	107–112	W 127–120	✗missed	+12
Oct 24	vs MIN	42%	110–113	W 128–110	✗missed	+21
Oct 21	vs GSW	53%	111–110	L 109–119	✗missed	−11

2024-25

11.9 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.1 to 13.6; 26th smallest of 30

−0.6

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -3.2 to 2.1

15.7 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

66%

winner picked

87 games involving LAL

51 / 46.3

actual / expected wins

gap +4.7

0.229

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 87 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	LAL win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 30 PO	vs MIN	59%	106–103	L 96–103	✗missed	−10
Apr 27 PO	at MIN	31%	102–109	L 113–116	✓correct	+4
Apr 25 PO	at MIN	38%	102–106	L 104–116	✓correct	−8
Apr 22 PO	vs MIN	44%	107–110	W 94–85	✗missed	+12
Apr 19 PO	vs MIN	54%	107–106	L 95–117	✗missed	−23
Apr 13	at POR	54%	116–114	L 81–109	✗missed	−30
Apr 11	vs HOU	62%	117–113	W 140–109	✓correct	+27
Apr 9	at DAL	59%	118–114	W 112–97	✓correct	+11
Apr 8	at OKC	23%	112–123	L 120–136	✓correct	−5
Apr 6	at OKC	16%	111–126	W 126–99	✗missed	+42
Apr 4	vs NOP	79%	119–107	W 124–108	✓correct	+4
Apr 3	vs GSW	49%	115–116	L 116–123	✓correct	−6
Mar 31	vs HOU	54%	117–116	W 104–98	✓correct	+5
Mar 29	at MEM	33%	114–120	W 134–127	✗missed	+13
Mar 27	at CHI	33%	115–121	L 117–119	✓correct	+4
Mar 26	at IND	31%	112–119	W 120–119	✗missed	+8
Mar 24	at ORL	51%	112–111	L 106–118	✗missed	−13
Mar 22	vs CHI	69%	120–113	L 115–146	✗missed	−38
Mar 20	vs MIL	44%	113–116	L 89–118	✓correct	−26
Mar 19	vs DEN	46%	112–114	W 120–108	✗missed	+14
Mar 17	vs SAS	64%	118–113	W 125–109	✓correct	+11
Mar 16	vs PHX	62%	115–111	W 107–96	✓correct	+7
Mar 14	at DEN	36%	111–116	L 126–131	✓correct	±0
Mar 13	at MIL	36%	110–115	L 106–126	✓correct	−15
Mar 10	at BKN	69%	112–104	L 108–111	✗missed	−11
Mar 8	at BOS	41%	108–111	L 101–111	✓correct	−7
Mar 6	vs NYK	57%	113–111	W 113–109	✓correct	+2
Mar 4	vs NOP	71%	118–110	W 136–115	✓correct	+13
Mar 2	vs LAC	62%	117–113	W 108–102	✓correct	+2
Feb 28	vs LAC	62%	118–114	W 106–102	✓correct	±0
Feb 27	vs MIN	62%	118–114	W 111–102	✓correct	+5
Feb 25	vs DAL	71%	121–113	W 107–99	✓correct	±0
Feb 22	at DEN	31%	113–120	W 123–100	✗missed	+30
Feb 20	at POR	54%	116–114	W 110–102	✓correct	+6
Feb 19	vs CHA	82%	117–103	L 97–100	✗missed	−17
Feb 12	at UTA	73%	121–111	L 119–131	✗missed	−22
Feb 10	vs UTA	77%	122–111	W 132–113	✓correct	+8
Feb 8	vs IND	62%	117–113	W 124–117	✓correct	+3
Feb 6	vs GSW	69%	116–109	W 120–112	✓correct	+1
Feb 4	at LAC	43%	108–110	W 122–97	✗missed	+27
Feb 1	at NYK	29%	107–115	W 128–112	✗missed	+24
Jan 30	at WAS	61%	115–110	W 134–96	✓correct	+33
Jan 28	at PHI	64%	115–109	L 104–118	✗missed	−20
Jan 27	at CHA	64%	112–106	W 112–107	✓correct	−1
Jan 25	at GSW	56%	113–110	W 118–108	✓correct	+7
Jan 23	vs BOS	44%	108–111	W 117–96	✗missed	+24
Jan 21	vs WAS	69%	117–110	W 111–88	✓correct	+16
Jan 19	at LAC	41%	108–111	L 102–116	✓correct	−11
Jan 17	vs BKN	77%	117–106	W 102–101	✓correct	−10
Jan 15	vs MIA	49%	112–113	W 117–108	✗missed	+10
Jan 13	vs SAS	62%	113–109	L 102–126	✗missed	−28
Jan 7	at DAL	46%	112–113	L 97–118	✓correct	−20
Jan 5	at HOU	38%	108–112	L 115–119	✓correct	±0
Jan 3	vs ATL	62%	119–115	W 119–102	✓correct	+13
Jan 2	vs POR	71%	118–110	W 114–106	✓correct	±0
Dec 31	vs CLE	46%	114–116	L 110–122	✓correct	−10
Dec 28	vs SAC	59%	116–113	W 132–122	✓correct	+7
Dec 25	at GSW	41%	110–113	W 115–113	✗missed	+5
Dec 23	vs DET	69%	121–114	L 114–117	✗missed	−10
Dec 21	at SAC	29%	110–118	W 103–99	✗missed	+12
Dec 19	at SAC	33%	112–118	W 113–100	✗missed	+19
Dec 15	vs MEM	41%	114–118	W 116–110	✗missed	+10
Dec 13	at MIN	27%	104–113	L 87–97	✓correct	−1
Dec 8	vs POR	71%	116–108	W 107–98	✓correct	+1
Dec 6	at ATL	29%	112–120	L 132–134	✓correct	+6
Dec 4	at MIA	36%	106–111	L 93–134	✓correct	−36
Dec 2	at MIN	43%	108–110	L 80–109	✓correct	−27
Dec 1	at UTA	64%	116–110	W 105–104	✓correct	−5
Nov 29	vs OKC	44%	110–113	L 93–101	✓correct	−5
Nov 27	at SAS	41%	114–117	W 119–101	✗missed	+21
Nov 26	at PHX	46%	113–114	L 100–127	✓correct	−26
Nov 23	vs DEN	54%	119–118	L 102–127	✗missed	−26
Nov 21	vs ORL	59%	112–109	L 118–119	✗missed	−4
Nov 19	vs UTA	75%	120–110	W 124–118	✓correct	−4
Nov 16	at NOP	71%	117–108	W 104–99	✓correct	−4
Nov 15	at SAS	51%	115–114	W 120–115	✓correct	+4
Nov 13	vs MEM	69%	122–115	W 128–123	✓correct	−2
Nov 10	vs TOR	79%	125–113	W 123–103	✓correct	+8
Nov 8	vs PHI	69%	115–108	W 116–106	✓correct	+3
Nov 6	at MEM	54%	119–117	L 114–131	✗missed	−19
Nov 4	at DET	64%	116–110	L 103–115	✗missed	−18
Nov 1	at TOR	66%	120–113	W 131–125	✓correct	−1
Oct 30	at CLE	41%	108–111	L 110–134	✓correct	−21
Oct 28	at PHX	43%	111–113	L 105–109	✓correct	−2
Oct 26	vs SAC	59%	112–109	W 131–127	✓correct	+1
Oct 25	vs PHX	62%	114–110	W 123–116	✓correct	+3
Oct 22	vs MIN	54%	110–109	W 110–103	✓correct	+6

2023-24

10.8 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.3 to 12.4; 13th smallest of 30

−0.2

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.4 to 2.4

14.0 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.3

63%

winner picked

87 games involving LAL

48 / 44.5

actual / expected wins

gap +3.5

0.217

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 87 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	LAL win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 29 PO	at DEN	37%	110–114	L 106–108	✓correct	+2
Apr 27 PO	vs DEN	59%	113–111	W 119–108	✓correct	+9
Apr 25 PO	vs DEN	59%	113–111	L 105–112	✗missed	−9
Apr 22 PO	at DEN	35%	111–116	L 99–101	✓correct	+3
Apr 20 PO	at DEN	34%	110–116	L 103–114	✓correct	−5
Apr 14	at NOP	35%	112–117	W 124–108	✗missed	+21
Apr 12	at MEM	75%	124–108	W 123–120	✓correct	−13
Apr 9	vs GSW	65%	117–112	L 120–134	✗missed	−19
Apr 7	vs MIN	59%	113–111	L 117–127	✗missed	−12
Apr 6	vs CLE	59%	115–113	W 116–97	✓correct	+17
Apr 3	at WAS	67%	123–112	W 125–120	✓correct	−6
Apr 2	at TOR	67%	123–112	W 128–111	✓correct	+6
Mar 31	at BKN	51%	113–110	W 116–104	✓correct	+9
Mar 29	at IND	39%	115–118	L 90–109	✓correct	−16
Mar 27	at MEM	59%	118–111	W 136–124	✓correct	+5
Mar 26	at MIL	35%	114–119	W 128–124	✗missed	+9
Mar 24	vs IND	59%	118–116	W 150–145	✓correct	+3
Mar 22	vs PHI	70%	117–109	W 101–94	✓correct	−1
Mar 18	vs ATL	61%	115–112	W 136–105	✓correct	+28
Mar 16	vs GSW	57%	116–115	L 121–128	✗missed	−8
Mar 13	at SAC	39%	115–118	L 107–120	✓correct	−10
Mar 10	vs MIN	57%	117–116	W 120–109	✓correct	+10
Mar 8	vs MIL	53%	116–117	W 123–122	✗missed	+2
Mar 6	vs SAC	57%	118–117	L 120–130	✗missed	−11
Mar 4	vs OKC	57%	121–120	W 116–104	✓correct	+11
Mar 2	vs DEN	53%	116–117	L 114–124	✓correct	−9
Feb 29	vs WAS	70%	120–112	W 134–131	✓correct	−5
Feb 28	at LAC	37%	115–119	W 116–112	✗missed	+8
Feb 25	at PHX	41%	117–119	L 113–123	✓correct	−8
Feb 23	vs SAS	76%	122–110	W 123–118	✓correct	−7
Feb 22	at GSW	35%	116–121	L 110–128	✓correct	−13
Feb 14	at UTA	32%	120–127	W 138–122	✗missed	+23
Feb 13	vs DET	82%	128–112	W 125–111	✓correct	−2
Feb 9	vs NOP	53%	116–117	W 139–122	✗missed	+18
Feb 8	vs DEN	49%	113–116	L 106–114	✓correct	−5
Feb 5	at CHA	57%	122–116	W 124–118	✓correct	±0
Feb 3	at NYK	37%	113–117	W 113–105	✗missed	+12
Feb 1	at BOS	24%	114–126	W 114–105	✗missed	+21
Jan 30	at ATL	47%	120–119	L 122–138	✗missed	−17
Jan 29	at HOU	49%	118–116	L 119–135	✗missed	−18
Jan 27	at GSW	49%	122–120	W 145–144	✓correct	−1
Jan 25	vs CHI	57%	117–116	W 141–132	✓correct	+8
Jan 23	at LAC	32%	111–118	L 116–127	✓correct	−4
Jan 21	vs POR	73%	120–110	W 134–110	✓correct	+14
Jan 19	vs BKN	61%	116–113	L 112–130	✗missed	−21
Jan 17	vs DAL	59%	118–116	W 127–110	✓correct	+15
Jan 15	vs OKC	47%	115–119	W 112–105	✗missed	+11
Jan 13	at UTA	34%	115–121	L 125–132	✓correct	−1
Jan 11	vs PHX	57%	117–116	L 109–127	✗missed	−19
Jan 9	vs TOR	53%	116–117	W 132–131	✗missed	+2
Jan 7	vs LAC	43%	111–117	W 106–103	✗missed	+9
Jan 5	vs MEM	67%	117–111	L 113–127	✗missed	−20
Jan 3	vs MIA	57%	116–115	L 96–110	✗missed	−15
Dec 31	at NOP	28%	113–122	L 109–129	✓correct	−11
Dec 30	at MIN	30%	112–120	L 106–108	✓correct	+6
Dec 28	vs CHA	75%	120–109	W 133–112	✓correct	+10
Dec 25	vs BOS	45%	111–116	L 115–126	✓correct	−6
Dec 23	at OKC	37%	115–119	W 129–120	✗missed	+13
Dec 21	at MIN	25%	109–120	L 111–118	✓correct	+4
Dec 20	at CHI	47%	116–115	L 108–124	✗missed	−17
Dec 18	vs NYK	53%	114–115	L 109–114	✓correct	−4
Dec 15	at SAS	55%	119–114	L 115–129	✗missed	−19
Dec 13	at SAS	55%	119–114	W 122–119	✓correct	−2
Dec 12	at DAL	43%	115–116	L 125–127	✓correct	−1
Dec 7	vs NOP	61%	115–112	W 133–89	✓correct	+41
Dec 5	vs PHX	51%	111–113	W 106–103	✗missed	+5
Dec 2	vs HOU	61%	115–112	W 107–97	✓correct	+7
Nov 30	at OKC	30%	111–119	L 110–133	✓correct	−15
Nov 29	at DET	53%	118–114	W 133–107	✓correct	+22
Nov 27	at PHI	30%	111–119	L 94–138	✓correct	−36
Nov 25	at CLE	35%	112–117	W 121–115	✗missed	+11
Nov 22	vs DAL	63%	117–113	L 101–104	✗missed	−7
Nov 21	vs UTA	63%	118–114	W 131–99	✓correct	+28
Nov 19	vs HOU	57%	113–112	W 105–104	✓correct	±0
Nov 17	at POR	53%	114–110	W 107–95	✓correct	+8
Nov 15	vs SAC	59%	114–112	L 110–125	✗missed	−17
Nov 14	vs MEM	63%	116–112	W 134–107	✓correct	+23
Nov 12	vs POR	65%	114–109	W 116–110	✓correct	+1
Nov 10	at PHX	43%	111–112	W 122–119	✗missed	+4
Nov 8	at HOU	51%	114–111	L 94–128	✗missed	−37
Nov 6	at MIA	39%	108–111	L 107–108	✓correct	+2
Nov 4	at ORL	51%	113–110	L 101–120	✗missed	−22
Nov 1	vs LAC	65%	117–112	W 130–125	✓correct	±0
Oct 30	vs ORL	61%	115–112	W 106–103	✓correct	±0
Oct 29	at SAC	43%	115–116	L 127–132	✓correct	−4
Oct 26	vs PHX	59%	116–114	W 100–95	✓correct	+3
Oct 24	at DEN	32%	108–115	L 107–119	✓correct	−5

2022-23

9.2 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 8.1 to 10.4; 5th smallest of 30

+1.6

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -0.3 to 3.6

11.4 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 10.3

65%

winner picked

98 games involving LAL

51 / 47.1

actual / expected wins

gap +3.9

0.219

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 98 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	LAL win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
May 22 PO	vs DEN	60%	111–107	L 111–113	✗missed	−6
May 20 PO	vs DEN	63%	111–106	L 108–119	✗missed	−16
May 18 PO	at DEN	20%	104–117	L 103–108	✓correct	+8
May 16 PO	at DEN	20%	104–117	L 126–132	✓correct	+7
May 12 PO	vs GSW	65%	115–109	W 122–101	✓correct	+15
May 10 PO	at GSW	35%	109–115	L 106–121	✓correct	−9
May 8 PO	vs GSW	65%	114–108	W 104–101	✓correct	−3
May 6 PO	vs GSW	65%	116–110	W 127–97	✓correct	+24
May 4 PO	at GSW	32%	109–116	L 100–127	✓correct	−20
May 2 PO	at GSW	26%	110–120	W 117–112	✗missed	+15
Apr 28 PO	vs MEM	58%	112–109	W 125–85	✓correct	+37
Apr 26 PO	at MEM	42%	109–112	L 99–116	✓correct	−14
Apr 24 PO	vs MEM	70%	117–109	W 117–111	✓correct	−2
Apr 22 PO	vs MEM	60%	114–110	W 111–101	✓correct	+6
Apr 19 PO	at MEM	32%	111–118	L 93–103	✓correct	−3
Apr 16 PO	at MEM	19%	106–120	W 128–112	✗missed	+30
Apr 9	vs UTA	78%	125–113	W 128–117	✓correct	−1
Apr 7	vs PHX	72%	124–115	W 121–107	✓correct	+5
Apr 5	at LAC	47%	115–116	L 118–125	✓correct	−6
Apr 4	at UTA	65%	124–118	W 135–133	✓correct	−4
Apr 2	at HOU	60%	120–116	W 134–109	✓correct	+21
Mar 31	at MIN	53%	114–113	W 123–111	✓correct	+11
Mar 29	at CHI	47%	110–111	W 121–110	✗missed	+12
Mar 26	vs CHI	53%	111–110	L 108–118	✗missed	−11
Mar 24	vs OKC	55%	116–114	W 116–111	✓correct	+3
Mar 22	vs PHX	53%	114–113	W 122–111	✓correct	+10
Mar 19	vs ORL	58%	119–116	W 111–105	✓correct	+3
Mar 17	vs DAL	65%	119–113	L 110–111	✗missed	−7
Mar 15	at HOU	63%	120–115	L 110–114	✗missed	−9
Mar 14	at NOP	55%	115–113	W 123–108	✓correct	+13
Mar 12	vs NYK	53%	114–113	L 108–112	✗missed	−5
Mar 10	vs TOR	53%	115–114	W 122–112	✓correct	+9
Mar 7	vs MEM	53%	113–112	W 112–103	✓correct	+8
Mar 5	vs GSW	45%	111–113	W 113–105	✗missed	+10
Mar 3	vs MIN	53%	115–114	L 102–110	✗missed	−9
Mar 1	at OKC	47%	118–119	W 123–117	✗missed	+7
Feb 28	at MEM	30%	109–117	L 109–121	✓correct	−4
Feb 26	at DAL	40%	115–119	W 111–108	✗missed	+7
Feb 23	vs GSW	45%	120–122	W 124–111	✗missed	+15
Feb 15	vs NOP	40%	116–120	W 120–102	✗missed	+22
Feb 13	at POR	53%	118–117	L 115–127	✗missed	−13
Feb 11	at GSW	35%	113–119	W 109–103	✗missed	+12
Feb 9	vs MIL	45%	116–118	L 106–115	✓correct	−7
Feb 7	vs OKC	47%	118–119	L 130–133	✓correct	−2
Feb 4	at NOP	63%	117–112	L 126–131	✗missed	−10
Feb 2	at IND	58%	122–119	W 112–111	✓correct	−2
Jan 31	at NYK	32%	110–117	W 129–123	✗missed	+13
Jan 30	at BKN	37%	112–117	L 104–121	✓correct	−12
Jan 28	at BOS	28%	108–117	L 121–125	✓correct	+5
Jan 25	vs SAS	76%	125–114	W 113–104	✓correct	−2
Jan 24	vs LAC	55%	116–114	L 115–133	✗missed	−20
Jan 22	at POR	58%	120–117	W 121–112	✓correct	+6
Jan 20	vs MEM	53%	119–118	W 122–121	✓correct	±0
Jan 18	vs SAC	53%	120–119	L 111–116	✗missed	−6
Jan 16	vs HOU	80%	120–107	W 140–132	✓correct	−5
Jan 15	vs PHI	53%	119–118	L 112–113	✗missed	−2
Jan 12	vs DAL	58%	118–115	L 115–119	✗missed	−7
Jan 9	at DEN	24%	113–124	L 109–122	✓correct	−2
Jan 7	at SAC	47%	118–119	W 136–134	✗missed	+3
Jan 6	vs ATL	45%	117–119	W 130–114	✗missed	+18
Jan 4	vs MIA	30%	114–122	W 112–109	✗missed	+11
Jan 2	at CHA	63%	120–115	W 121–115	✓correct	+1
Dec 30	at ATL	45%	115–117	W 130–121	✗missed	+11
Dec 28	at MIA	37%	111–116	L 98–112	✓correct	−9
Dec 27	at ORL	45%	117–119	W 129–110	✗missed	+21
Dec 25	at DAL	42%	110–113	L 115–124	✓correct	−6
Dec 23	vs CHA	60%	116–112	L 130–134	✗missed	−8
Dec 21	at SAC	35%	113–119	L 120–134	✓correct	−8
Dec 19	at PHX	30%	113–121	L 104–130	✓correct	−18
Dec 18	vs WAS	63%	120–115	W 119–117	✓correct	−3
Dec 16	vs DEN	53%	120–119	W 126–108	✓correct	+17
Dec 13	vs BOS	47%	117–118	L 118–122	✓correct	−3
Dec 11	at DET	72%	121–112	W 124–117	✓correct	−2
Dec 9	at PHI	42%	112–115	L 122–133	✓correct	−8
Dec 7	at TOR	35%	112–118	L 113–126	✓correct	−7
Dec 6	at CLE	30%	107–115	L 102–116	✓correct	−6
Dec 4	at WAS	53%	117–116	W 130–119	✓correct	+10
Dec 2	at MIL	40%	112–116	W 133–129	✗missed	+8
Nov 30	vs POR	60%	117–113	W 128–109	✓correct	+15
Nov 28	vs IND	40%	113–117	L 115–116	✓correct	+3
Nov 26	at SAS	63%	116–111	W 143–138	✓correct	±0
Nov 25	at SAS	55%	117–115	W 105–94	✓correct	+9
Nov 22	at PHX	30%	106–114	L 105–115	✓correct	−2
Nov 20	vs SAS	70%	117–109	W 123–92	✓correct	+23
Nov 18	vs DET	74%	117–107	W 128–121	✓correct	−3
Nov 13	vs BKN	35%	106–112	W 116–103	✗missed	+19
Nov 11	vs SAC	37%	108–113	L 114–120	✓correct	−1
Nov 9	at LAC	35%	105–111	L 101–114	✓correct	−7
Nov 7	at UTA	30%	107–115	L 116–139	✓correct	−15
Nov 6	vs CLE	28%	108–117	L 100–114	✓correct	−5
Nov 4	vs UTA	26%	107–117	L 116–130	✓correct	−4
Nov 2	vs NOP	32%	109–116	W 120–117	✗missed	+10
Oct 30	vs DEN	32%	109–116	W 121–110	✗missed	+18
Oct 28	at MIN	42%	109–112	L 102–111	✓correct	−6
Oct 26	at DEN	42%	113–116	L 99–110	✓correct	−8
Oct 23	vs POR	76%	118–107	L 104–106	✗missed	−13
Oct 20	vs LAC	37%	115–120	L 97–103	✓correct	−1
Oct 18	at GSW	35%	110–116	L 109–123	✓correct	−8

2022-23 to 2026-27

10.7 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.0 to 11.4; 8th smallest of 30

+0.4

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -0.8 to 1.6

13.7 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

64%

winner picked

375 games involving LAL

216 / 192.5

actual / expected wins

gap +23.5

0.218

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 375 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	LAL win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 8	at DET	39%	109–113	W 121–116	✗missed	+9
Nov 6	vs POR	64%	119–114	W 124–118	✓correct	+1
Nov 4	at SAC	77%	124–112	W 116–103	✓correct	+1
Nov 2	vs MIA	59%	120–117	W 138–117	✓correct	+18
Nov 1	vs TOR	53%	114–113	W 131–125	✓correct	+5
Oct 30	at GSW	56%	116–114	L 95–112	✗missed	−19
Oct 28	at LAC	39%	111–115	W 103–87	✗missed	+20
Oct 27	vs POR	53%	112–111	L 129–136	✗missed	−8
Oct 25	at UTA	67%	123–117	W 132–123	✓correct	+3
Oct 23	vs LAC	56%	113–111	W 125–117	✓correct	+6
Oct 21	vs GSW	67%	116–110	W 127–105	✓correct	+16
May 11 PO	vs OKC	24%	96–106	L 110–115	✓correct	+5
May 9 PO	vs OKC	17%	95–109	L 108–131	✓correct	−9
May 7 PO	at OKC	36%	102–107	L 107–125	✓correct	−13
May 5 PO	at OKC	41%	105–108	L 90–108	✓correct	−15
May 1 PO	at HOU	40%	105–109	W 98–78	✗missed	+24
Apr 29 PO	vs HOU	59%	104–101	L 93–99	✗missed	−9
Apr 26 PO	at HOU	35%	102–108	L 96–115	✓correct	−13
Apr 24 PO	at HOU	35%	101–107	W 112–108	✗missed	+10
Apr 21 PO	vs HOU	42%	102–105	W 101–94	✗missed	+10
Apr 18 PO	vs HOU	47%	106–107	W 107–98	✗missed	+10
Apr 12	vs UTA	85%	124–109	W 131–107	✓correct	+9
Apr 10	vs PHX	53%	114–113	W 101–73	✓correct	+27
Apr 9	at GSW	53%	117–116	W 119–103	✓correct	+15
Apr 7	vs OKC	29%	113–121	L 87–123	✓correct	−28
Apr 5	at DAL	74%	125–116	L 128–134	✗missed	−15
Apr 2	at OKC	31%	111–118	L 96–139	✓correct	−36
Mar 31	vs CLE	61%	117–113	W 127–113	✓correct	+10
Mar 30	vs WAS	85%	124–109	W 120–101	✓correct	+4
Mar 27	vs BKN	80%	117–105	W 116–99	✓correct	+5
Mar 25	at IND	71%	120–112	W 137–130	✓correct	−1
Mar 23	at DET	47%	112–113	L 110–113	✓correct	−2
Mar 21	at ORL	44%	116–118	W 105–104	✗missed	+3
Mar 19	at MIA	47%	116–117	W 134–126	✗missed	+9
Mar 18	at HOU	56%	114–112	W 124–116	✓correct	+6
Mar 16	at HOU	53%	114–113	W 100–92	✓correct	+7
Mar 14	vs DEN	61%	118–114	W 127–125	✓correct	−2
Mar 12	vs CHI	78%	121–110	W 142–130	✓correct	+1
Mar 10	vs MIN	61%	117–113	W 120–106	✓correct	+10
Mar 8	vs NYK	36%	107–112	W 110–97	✗missed	+18
Mar 6	vs IND	78%	122–111	W 128–117	✓correct	±0
Mar 5	at DEN	36%	114–119	L 113–120	✓correct	−2
Mar 3	vs NOP	67%	120–114	W 110–101	✓correct	+3
Mar 1	vs SAC	82%	122–109	W 128–104	✓correct	+11
Feb 28	at GSW	44%	114–116	W 129–101	✗missed	+30
Feb 26	at PHX	66%	112–106	L 110–113	✗missed	−9
Feb 24	vs ORL	53%	115–114	L 109–110	✗missed	−2
Feb 22	vs BOS	42%	110–113	L 89–111	✓correct	−19
Feb 20	vs LAC	53%	114–113	W 125–122	✓correct	+2
Feb 12	vs DAL	56%	118–116	W 124–104	✓correct	+18
Feb 10	vs SAS	34%	112–118	L 108–136	✓correct	−22
Feb 9	vs OKC	53%	114–113	L 110–119	✗missed	−10
Feb 7	vs GSW	61%	117–113	W 105–99	✓correct	+2
Feb 5	vs PHI	53%	116–115	W 119–115	✓correct	+3
Feb 3	at BKN	64%	114–109	W 125–109	✓correct	+11
Feb 1	at NYK	36%	110–115	L 100–112	✓correct	−7
Jan 30	at WAS	76%	119–109	W 142–111	✓correct	+21
Jan 28	at CLE	47%	115–116	L 99–129	✓correct	−29
Jan 26	at CHI	47%	115–116	W 129–118	✗missed	+12
Jan 24	at DAL	53%	116–115	W 116–110	✓correct	+5
Jan 22	at LAC	47%	113–114	L 104–112	✓correct	−7
Jan 20	at DEN	41%	111–114	W 115–107	✗missed	+11
Jan 18	vs TOR	44%	112–114	W 110–93	✗missed	+19
Jan 17	at POR	41%	112–115	L 116–132	✓correct	−13
Jan 15	vs CHA	47%	114–115	L 117–135	✓correct	−17
Jan 13	vs ATL	44%	115–117	W 141–116	✗missed	+27
Jan 12	at SAC	64%	113–108	L 112–124	✗missed	−17
Jan 9	vs MIL	53%	114–113	L 101–105	✗missed	−5
Jan 7	at SAS	31%	113–120	L 91–107	✓correct	−9
Jan 6	at NOP	66%	121–115	W 111–103	✓correct	+2
Jan 4	vs MEM	53%	119–118	W 120–114	✓correct	+5
Jan 2	vs MEM	44%	116–118	W 128–121	✗missed	+9
Dec 30	vs DET	34%	111–117	L 106–128	✓correct	−16
Dec 28	vs SAC	69%	117–110	W 125–101	✓correct	+17
Dec 25	vs HOU	36%	113–118	L 96–119	✓correct	−18
Dec 23	at PHX	44%	114–116	L 108–132	✓correct	−22
Dec 20	at LAC	47%	114–115	L 88–103	✓correct	−14
Dec 18	at UTA	61%	120–116	W 143–135	✓correct	+4
Dec 14	at PHX	47%	114–115	W 116–114	✗missed	+3
Dec 10	vs SAS	64%	122–117	L 119–132	✗missed	−18
Dec 7	at PHI	47%	115–116	W 112–108	✗missed	+5
Dec 5	at BOS	36%	114–119	L 105–126	✓correct	−16
Dec 4	at TOR	44%	113–115	W 123–120	✗missed	+5
Dec 1	vs PHX	59%	119–116	L 108–125	✗missed	−20
Nov 30	vs NOP	90%	126–107	W 133–121	✓correct	−7
Nov 28	vs DAL	76%	121–111	W 129–119	✓correct	±0
Nov 25	vs LAC	67%	117–111	W 135–118	✓correct	+11
Nov 23	at UTA	74%	123–114	W 108–106	✓correct	−7
Nov 18	vs UTA	78%	123–112	W 140–126	✓correct	+3
Nov 15	at MIL	47%	118–119	W 119–95	✗missed	+25
Nov 14	at NOP	76%	119–109	W 118–104	✓correct	+4
Nov 12	at OKC	15%	111–126	L 92–121	✓correct	−14
Nov 10	at CHA	81%	124–111	W 121–111	✓correct	−3
Nov 8	at ATL	58%	116–113	L 102–122	✗missed	−23
Nov 5	vs SAS	59%	117–114	W 118–116	✓correct	−1
Nov 3	at POR	34%	110–116	W 123–115	✗missed	+14
Nov 2	vs MIA	59%	116–113	W 130–120	✓correct	+7
Oct 31	at MEM	47%	117–118	W 117–112	✗missed	+6
Oct 29	at MIN	31%	107–114	W 116–115	✗missed	+8
Oct 27	vs POR	53%	114–113	L 108–122	✗missed	−15
Oct 26	at SAC	36%	107–112	W 127–120	✗missed	+12
Oct 24	vs MIN	42%	110–113	W 128–110	✗missed	+21
Oct 21	vs GSW	53%	111–110	L 109–119	✗missed	−11
Apr 30 PO	vs MIN	59%	106–103	L 96–103	✗missed	−10
Apr 27 PO	at MIN	31%	102–109	L 113–116	✓correct	+4
Apr 25 PO	at MIN	38%	102–106	L 104–116	✓correct	−8
Apr 22 PO	vs MIN	44%	107–110	W 94–85	✗missed	+12
Apr 19 PO	vs MIN	54%	107–106	L 95–117	✗missed	−23
Apr 13	at POR	54%	116–114	L 81–109	✗missed	−30
Apr 11	vs HOU	62%	117–113	W 140–109	✓correct	+27
Apr 9	at DAL	59%	118–114	W 112–97	✓correct	+11
Apr 8	at OKC	23%	112–123	L 120–136	✓correct	−5
Apr 6	at OKC	16%	111–126	W 126–99	✗missed	+42
Apr 4	vs NOP	79%	119–107	W 124–108	✓correct	+4
Apr 3	vs GSW	49%	115–116	L 116–123	✓correct	−6
Mar 31	vs HOU	54%	117–116	W 104–98	✓correct	+5
Mar 29	at MEM	33%	114–120	W 134–127	✗missed	+13
Mar 27	at CHI	33%	115–121	L 117–119	✓correct	+4
Mar 26	at IND	31%	112–119	W 120–119	✗missed	+8
Mar 24	at ORL	51%	112–111	L 106–118	✗missed	−13
Mar 22	vs CHI	69%	120–113	L 115–146	✗missed	−38
Mar 20	vs MIL	44%	113–116	L 89–118	✓correct	−26
Mar 19	vs DEN	46%	112–114	W 120–108	✗missed	+14
Mar 17	vs SAS	64%	118–113	W 125–109	✓correct	+11
Mar 16	vs PHX	62%	115–111	W 107–96	✓correct	+7
Mar 14	at DEN	36%	111–116	L 126–131	✓correct	±0
Mar 13	at MIL	36%	110–115	L 106–126	✓correct	−15
Mar 10	at BKN	69%	112–104	L 108–111	✗missed	−11
Mar 8	at BOS	41%	108–111	L 101–111	✓correct	−7
Mar 6	vs NYK	57%	113–111	W 113–109	✓correct	+2
Mar 4	vs NOP	71%	118–110	W 136–115	✓correct	+13
Mar 2	vs LAC	62%	117–113	W 108–102	✓correct	+2
Feb 28	vs LAC	62%	118–114	W 106–102	✓correct	±0
Feb 27	vs MIN	62%	118–114	W 111–102	✓correct	+5
Feb 25	vs DAL	71%	121–113	W 107–99	✓correct	±0
Feb 22	at DEN	31%	113–120	W 123–100	✗missed	+30
Feb 20	at POR	54%	116–114	W 110–102	✓correct	+6
Feb 19	vs CHA	82%	117–103	L 97–100	✗missed	−17
Feb 12	at UTA	73%	121–111	L 119–131	✗missed	−22
Feb 10	vs UTA	77%	122–111	W 132–113	✓correct	+8
Feb 8	vs IND	62%	117–113	W 124–117	✓correct	+3
Feb 6	vs GSW	69%	116–109	W 120–112	✓correct	+1
Feb 4	at LAC	43%	108–110	W 122–97	✗missed	+27
Feb 1	at NYK	29%	107–115	W 128–112	✗missed	+24
Jan 30	at WAS	61%	115–110	W 134–96	✓correct	+33
Jan 28	at PHI	64%	115–109	L 104–118	✗missed	−20
Jan 27	at CHA	64%	112–106	W 112–107	✓correct	−1
Jan 25	at GSW	56%	113–110	W 118–108	✓correct	+7
Jan 23	vs BOS	44%	108–111	W 117–96	✗missed	+24
Jan 21	vs WAS	69%	117–110	W 111–88	✓correct	+16
Jan 19	at LAC	41%	108–111	L 102–116	✓correct	−11
Jan 17	vs BKN	77%	117–106	W 102–101	✓correct	−10
Jan 15	vs MIA	49%	112–113	W 117–108	✗missed	+10
Jan 13	vs SAS	62%	113–109	L 102–126	✗missed	−28
Jan 7	at DAL	46%	112–113	L 97–118	✓correct	−20
Jan 5	at HOU	38%	108–112	L 115–119	✓correct	±0
Jan 3	vs ATL	62%	119–115	W 119–102	✓correct	+13
Jan 2	vs POR	71%	118–110	W 114–106	✓correct	±0
Dec 31	vs CLE	46%	114–116	L 110–122	✓correct	−10
Dec 28	vs SAC	59%	116–113	W 132–122	✓correct	+7
Dec 25	at GSW	41%	110–113	W 115–113	✗missed	+5
Dec 23	vs DET	69%	121–114	L 114–117	✗missed	−10
Dec 21	at SAC	29%	110–118	W 103–99	✗missed	+12
Dec 19	at SAC	33%	112–118	W 113–100	✗missed	+19
Dec 15	vs MEM	41%	114–118	W 116–110	✗missed	+10
Dec 13	at MIN	27%	104–113	L 87–97	✓correct	−1
Dec 8	vs POR	71%	116–108	W 107–98	✓correct	+1
Dec 6	at ATL	29%	112–120	L 132–134	✓correct	+6
Dec 4	at MIA	36%	106–111	L 93–134	✓correct	−36
Dec 2	at MIN	43%	108–110	L 80–109	✓correct	−27
Dec 1	at UTA	64%	116–110	W 105–104	✓correct	−5
Nov 29	vs OKC	44%	110–113	L 93–101	✓correct	−5
Nov 27	at SAS	41%	114–117	W 119–101	✗missed	+21
Nov 26	at PHX	46%	113–114	L 100–127	✓correct	−26
Nov 23	vs DEN	54%	119–118	L 102–127	✗missed	−26
Nov 21	vs ORL	59%	112–109	L 118–119	✗missed	−4
Nov 19	vs UTA	75%	120–110	W 124–118	✓correct	−4
Nov 16	at NOP	71%	117–108	W 104–99	✓correct	−4
Nov 15	at SAS	51%	115–114	W 120–115	✓correct	+4
Nov 13	vs MEM	69%	122–115	W 128–123	✓correct	−2
Nov 10	vs TOR	79%	125–113	W 123–103	✓correct	+8
Nov 8	vs PHI	69%	115–108	W 116–106	✓correct	+3
Nov 6	at MEM	54%	119–117	L 114–131	✗missed	−19
Nov 4	at DET	64%	116–110	L 103–115	✗missed	−18
Nov 1	at TOR	66%	120–113	W 131–125	✓correct	−1
Oct 30	at CLE	41%	108–111	L 110–134	✓correct	−21
Oct 28	at PHX	43%	111–113	L 105–109	✓correct	−2
Oct 26	vs SAC	59%	112–109	W 131–127	✓correct	+1
Oct 25	vs PHX	62%	114–110	W 123–116	✓correct	+3
Oct 22	vs MIN	54%	110–109	W 110–103	✓correct	+6
Apr 29 PO	at DEN	37%	110–114	L 106–108	✓correct	+2
Apr 27 PO	vs DEN	59%	113–111	W 119–108	✓correct	+9
Apr 25 PO	vs DEN	59%	113–111	L 105–112	✗missed	−9
Apr 22 PO	at DEN	35%	111–116	L 99–101	✓correct	+3
Apr 20 PO	at DEN	34%	110–116	L 103–114	✓correct	−5
Apr 14	at NOP	35%	112–117	W 124–108	✗missed	+21
Apr 12	at MEM	75%	124–108	W 123–120	✓correct	−13
Apr 9	vs GSW	65%	117–112	L 120–134	✗missed	−19
Apr 7	vs MIN	59%	113–111	L 117–127	✗missed	−12
Apr 6	vs CLE	59%	115–113	W 116–97	✓correct	+17
Apr 3	at WAS	67%	123–112	W 125–120	✓correct	−6
Apr 2	at TOR	67%	123–112	W 128–111	✓correct	+6
Mar 31	at BKN	51%	113–110	W 116–104	✓correct	+9
Mar 29	at IND	39%	115–118	L 90–109	✓correct	−16
Mar 27	at MEM	59%	118–111	W 136–124	✓correct	+5
Mar 26	at MIL	35%	114–119	W 128–124	✗missed	+9
Mar 24	vs IND	59%	118–116	W 150–145	✓correct	+3
Mar 22	vs PHI	70%	117–109	W 101–94	✓correct	−1
Mar 18	vs ATL	61%	115–112	W 136–105	✓correct	+28
Mar 16	vs GSW	57%	116–115	L 121–128	✗missed	−8
Mar 13	at SAC	39%	115–118	L 107–120	✓correct	−10
Mar 10	vs MIN	57%	117–116	W 120–109	✓correct	+10
Mar 8	vs MIL	53%	116–117	W 123–122	✗missed	+2
Mar 6	vs SAC	57%	118–117	L 120–130	✗missed	−11
Mar 4	vs OKC	57%	121–120	W 116–104	✓correct	+11
Mar 2	vs DEN	53%	116–117	L 114–124	✓correct	−9
Feb 29	vs WAS	70%	120–112	W 134–131	✓correct	−5
Feb 28	at LAC	37%	115–119	W 116–112	✗missed	+8
Feb 25	at PHX	41%	117–119	L 113–123	✓correct	−8
Feb 23	vs SAS	76%	122–110	W 123–118	✓correct	−7
Feb 22	at GSW	35%	116–121	L 110–128	✓correct	−13
Feb 14	at UTA	32%	120–127	W 138–122	✗missed	+23
Feb 13	vs DET	82%	128–112	W 125–111	✓correct	−2
Feb 9	vs NOP	53%	116–117	W 139–122	✗missed	+18
Feb 8	vs DEN	49%	113–116	L 106–114	✓correct	−5
Feb 5	at CHA	57%	122–116	W 124–118	✓correct	±0
Feb 3	at NYK	37%	113–117	W 113–105	✗missed	+12
Feb 1	at BOS	24%	114–126	W 114–105	✗missed	+21
Jan 30	at ATL	47%	120–119	L 122–138	✗missed	−17
Jan 29	at HOU	49%	118–116	L 119–135	✗missed	−18
Jan 27	at GSW	49%	122–120	W 145–144	✓correct	−1
Jan 25	vs CHI	57%	117–116	W 141–132	✓correct	+8
Jan 23	at LAC	32%	111–118	L 116–127	✓correct	−4
Jan 21	vs POR	73%	120–110	W 134–110	✓correct	+14
Jan 19	vs BKN	61%	116–113	L 112–130	✗missed	−21
Jan 17	vs DAL	59%	118–116	W 127–110	✓correct	+15
Jan 15	vs OKC	47%	115–119	W 112–105	✗missed	+11
Jan 13	at UTA	34%	115–121	L 125–132	✓correct	−1
Jan 11	vs PHX	57%	117–116	L 109–127	✗missed	−19
Jan 9	vs TOR	53%	116–117	W 132–131	✗missed	+2
Jan 7	vs LAC	43%	111–117	W 106–103	✗missed	+9
Jan 5	vs MEM	67%	117–111	L 113–127	✗missed	−20
Jan 3	vs MIA	57%	116–115	L 96–110	✗missed	−15
Dec 31	at NOP	28%	113–122	L 109–129	✓correct	−11
Dec 30	at MIN	30%	112–120	L 106–108	✓correct	+6
Dec 28	vs CHA	75%	120–109	W 133–112	✓correct	+10
Dec 25	vs BOS	45%	111–116	L 115–126	✓correct	−6
Dec 23	at OKC	37%	115–119	W 129–120	✗missed	+13
Dec 21	at MIN	25%	109–120	L 111–118	✓correct	+4
Dec 20	at CHI	47%	116–115	L 108–124	✗missed	−17
Dec 18	vs NYK	53%	114–115	L 109–114	✓correct	−4
Dec 15	at SAS	55%	119–114	L 115–129	✗missed	−19
Dec 13	at SAS	55%	119–114	W 122–119	✓correct	−2
Dec 12	at DAL	43%	115–116	L 125–127	✓correct	−1
Dec 7	vs NOP	61%	115–112	W 133–89	✓correct	+41
Dec 5	vs PHX	51%	111–113	W 106–103	✗missed	+5
Dec 2	vs HOU	61%	115–112	W 107–97	✓correct	+7
Nov 30	at OKC	30%	111–119	L 110–133	✓correct	−15
Nov 29	at DET	53%	118–114	W 133–107	✓correct	+22
Nov 27	at PHI	30%	111–119	L 94–138	✓correct	−36
Nov 25	at CLE	35%	112–117	W 121–115	✗missed	+11
Nov 22	vs DAL	63%	117–113	L 101–104	✗missed	−7
Nov 21	vs UTA	63%	118–114	W 131–99	✓correct	+28
Nov 19	vs HOU	57%	113–112	W 105–104	✓correct	±0
Nov 17	at POR	53%	114–110	W 107–95	✓correct	+8
Nov 15	vs SAC	59%	114–112	L 110–125	✗missed	−17
Nov 14	vs MEM	63%	116–112	W 134–107	✓correct	+23
Nov 12	vs POR	65%	114–109	W 116–110	✓correct	+1
Nov 10	at PHX	43%	111–112	W 122–119	✗missed	+4
Nov 8	at HOU	51%	114–111	L 94–128	✗missed	−37
Nov 6	at MIA	39%	108–111	L 107–108	✓correct	+2
Nov 4	at ORL	51%	113–110	L 101–120	✗missed	−22
Nov 1	vs LAC	65%	117–112	W 130–125	✓correct	±0
Oct 30	vs ORL	61%	115–112	W 106–103	✓correct	±0
Oct 29	at SAC	43%	115–116	L 127–132	✓correct	−4
Oct 26	vs PHX	59%	116–114	W 100–95	✓correct	+3
Oct 24	at DEN	32%	108–115	L 107–119	✓correct	−5
May 22 PO	vs DEN	60%	111–107	L 111–113	✗missed	−6
May 20 PO	vs DEN	63%	111–106	L 108–119	✗missed	−16
May 18 PO	at DEN	20%	104–117	L 103–108	✓correct	+8
May 16 PO	at DEN	20%	104–117	L 126–132	✓correct	+7
May 12 PO	vs GSW	65%	115–109	W 122–101	✓correct	+15
May 10 PO	at GSW	35%	109–115	L 106–121	✓correct	−9
May 8 PO	vs GSW	65%	114–108	W 104–101	✓correct	−3
May 6 PO	vs GSW	65%	116–110	W 127–97	✓correct	+24
May 4 PO	at GSW	32%	109–116	L 100–127	✓correct	−20
May 2 PO	at GSW	26%	110–120	W 117–112	✗missed	+15
Apr 28 PO	vs MEM	58%	112–109	W 125–85	✓correct	+37
Apr 26 PO	at MEM	42%	109–112	L 99–116	✓correct	−14
Apr 24 PO	vs MEM	70%	117–109	W 117–111	✓correct	−2
Apr 22 PO	vs MEM	60%	114–110	W 111–101	✓correct	+6
Apr 19 PO	at MEM	32%	111–118	L 93–103	✓correct	−3
Apr 16 PO	at MEM	19%	106–120	W 128–112	✗missed	+30
Apr 9	vs UTA	78%	125–113	W 128–117	✓correct	−1
Apr 7	vs PHX	72%	124–115	W 121–107	✓correct	+5
Apr 5	at LAC	47%	115–116	L 118–125	✓correct	−6
Apr 4	at UTA	65%	124–118	W 135–133	✓correct	−4
Apr 2	at HOU	60%	120–116	W 134–109	✓correct	+21
Mar 31	at MIN	53%	114–113	W 123–111	✓correct	+11
Mar 29	at CHI	47%	110–111	W 121–110	✗missed	+12
Mar 26	vs CHI	53%	111–110	L 108–118	✗missed	−11
Mar 24	vs OKC	55%	116–114	W 116–111	✓correct	+3
Mar 22	vs PHX	53%	114–113	W 122–111	✓correct	+10
Mar 19	vs ORL	58%	119–116	W 111–105	✓correct	+3
Mar 17	vs DAL	65%	119–113	L 110–111	✗missed	−7
Mar 15	at HOU	63%	120–115	L 110–114	✗missed	−9
Mar 14	at NOP	55%	115–113	W 123–108	✓correct	+13
Mar 12	vs NYK	53%	114–113	L 108–112	✗missed	−5
Mar 10	vs TOR	53%	115–114	W 122–112	✓correct	+9
Mar 7	vs MEM	53%	113–112	W 112–103	✓correct	+8
Mar 5	vs GSW	45%	111–113	W 113–105	✗missed	+10
Mar 3	vs MIN	53%	115–114	L 102–110	✗missed	−9
Mar 1	at OKC	47%	118–119	W 123–117	✗missed	+7
Feb 28	at MEM	30%	109–117	L 109–121	✓correct	−4
Feb 26	at DAL	40%	115–119	W 111–108	✗missed	+7
Feb 23	vs GSW	45%	120–122	W 124–111	✗missed	+15
Feb 15	vs NOP	40%	116–120	W 120–102	✗missed	+22
Feb 13	at POR	53%	118–117	L 115–127	✗missed	−13
Feb 11	at GSW	35%	113–119	W 109–103	✗missed	+12
Feb 9	vs MIL	45%	116–118	L 106–115	✓correct	−7
Feb 7	vs OKC	47%	118–119	L 130–133	✓correct	−2
Feb 4	at NOP	63%	117–112	L 126–131	✗missed	−10
Feb 2	at IND	58%	122–119	W 112–111	✓correct	−2
Jan 31	at NYK	32%	110–117	W 129–123	✗missed	+13
Jan 30	at BKN	37%	112–117	L 104–121	✓correct	−12
Jan 28	at BOS	28%	108–117	L 121–125	✓correct	+5
Jan 25	vs SAS	76%	125–114	W 113–104	✓correct	−2
Jan 24	vs LAC	55%	116–114	L 115–133	✗missed	−20
Jan 22	at POR	58%	120–117	W 121–112	✓correct	+6
Jan 20	vs MEM	53%	119–118	W 122–121	✓correct	±0
Jan 18	vs SAC	53%	120–119	L 111–116	✗missed	−6
Jan 16	vs HOU	80%	120–107	W 140–132	✓correct	−5
Jan 15	vs PHI	53%	119–118	L 112–113	✗missed	−2
Jan 12	vs DAL	58%	118–115	L 115–119	✗missed	−7
Jan 9	at DEN	24%	113–124	L 109–122	✓correct	−2
Jan 7	at SAC	47%	118–119	W 136–134	✗missed	+3
Jan 6	vs ATL	45%	117–119	W 130–114	✗missed	+18
Jan 4	vs MIA	30%	114–122	W 112–109	✗missed	+11
Jan 2	at CHA	63%	120–115	W 121–115	✓correct	+1
Dec 30	at ATL	45%	115–117	W 130–121	✗missed	+11
Dec 28	at MIA	37%	111–116	L 98–112	✓correct	−9
Dec 27	at ORL	45%	117–119	W 129–110	✗missed	+21
Dec 25	at DAL	42%	110–113	L 115–124	✓correct	−6
Dec 23	vs CHA	60%	116–112	L 130–134	✗missed	−8
Dec 21	at SAC	35%	113–119	L 120–134	✓correct	−8
Dec 19	at PHX	30%	113–121	L 104–130	✓correct	−18
Dec 18	vs WAS	63%	120–115	W 119–117	✓correct	−3
Dec 16	vs DEN	53%	120–119	W 126–108	✓correct	+17
Dec 13	vs BOS	47%	117–118	L 118–122	✓correct	−3
Dec 11	at DET	72%	121–112	W 124–117	✓correct	−2
Dec 9	at PHI	42%	112–115	L 122–133	✓correct	−8
Dec 7	at TOR	35%	112–118	L 113–126	✓correct	−7
Dec 6	at CLE	30%	107–115	L 102–116	✓correct	−6
Dec 4	at WAS	53%	117–116	W 130–119	✓correct	+10
Dec 2	at MIL	40%	112–116	W 133–129	✗missed	+8
Nov 30	vs POR	60%	117–113	W 128–109	✓correct	+15
Nov 28	vs IND	40%	113–117	L 115–116	✓correct	+3
Nov 26	at SAS	63%	116–111	W 143–138	✓correct	±0
Nov 25	at SAS	55%	117–115	W 105–94	✓correct	+9
Nov 22	at PHX	30%	106–114	L 105–115	✓correct	−2
Nov 20	vs SAS	70%	117–109	W 123–92	✓correct	+23
Nov 18	vs DET	74%	117–107	W 128–121	✓correct	−3
Nov 13	vs BKN	35%	106–112	W 116–103	✗missed	+19
Nov 11	vs SAC	37%	108–113	L 114–120	✓correct	−1
Nov 9	at LAC	35%	105–111	L 101–114	✓correct	−7
Nov 7	at UTA	30%	107–115	L 116–139	✓correct	−15
Nov 6	vs CLE	28%	108–117	L 100–114	✓correct	−5
Nov 4	vs UTA	26%	107–117	L 116–130	✓correct	−4
Nov 2	vs NOP	32%	109–116	W 120–117	✗missed	+10
Oct 30	vs DEN	32%	109–116	W 121–110	✗missed	+18
Oct 28	at MIN	42%	109–112	L 102–111	✓correct	−6
Oct 26	at DEN	42%	113–116	L 99–110	✓correct	−8
Oct 23	vs POR	76%	118–107	L 104–106	✗missed	−13
Oct 20	vs LAC	37%	115–120	L 97–103	✓correct	−1
Oct 18	at GSW	35%	110–116	L 109–123	✓correct	−8

Surprise games

All LAL surprises

Across every graded season. The percentage is the pregame chance the forecast gave the team that won.

Most unexpected LAL wins

16%LAL beat OKC126–99Apr 6, 2024-25 · forecast OKC126–111 · missed margin by 42
19%LAL beat MEM128–112Apr 16, 2022-23 · playoffs · forecast MEM120–106 · missed margin by 30
24%LAL beat BOS114–105Feb 1, 2023-24 · forecast BOS126–114 · missed margin by 21
26%LAL beat GSW117–112May 2, 2022-23 · playoffs · forecast GSW120–110 · missed margin by 15
29%LAL beat NYK128–112Feb 1, 2024-25 · forecast NYK115–107 · missed margin by 24

Most unexpected LAL losses

18%CHA beat LAL100–97Feb 19, 2024-25 · forecast LAL117–103 · missed margin by 17
24%POR beat LAL106–104Oct 23, 2022-23 · forecast LAL118–107 · missed margin by 13
27%DAL beat LAL134–128Apr 5, 2025-26 · forecast LAL125–116 · missed margin by 15
27%UTA beat LAL131–119Feb 12, 2024-25 · forecast LAL121–111 · missed margin by 22
31%CHI beat LAL146–115Mar 22, 2024-25 · forecast LAL120–113 · missed margin by 38

Largest margin misses

16%LAL beat OKC126–99Apr 6, 2024-25 · forecast OKC126–111 · missed margin by 42
61%LAL beat NOP133–89Dec 7, 2023-24 · forecast LAL115–112 · missed margin by 41
31%CHI beat LAL146–115Mar 22, 2024-25 · forecast LAL120–113 · missed margin by 38
49%HOU beat LAL128–94Nov 8, 2023-24 · forecast LAL114–111 · missed margin by 37
58%LAL beat MEM125–85Apr 28, 2022-23 · playoffs · forecast LAL112–109 · missed margin by 37

Definitions

Expected wins: The sum of the team's pregame win probabilities over the games in the sample (home: the stored home win probability; road: one minus it).
Wins vs expectation: Actual wins minus expected wins. It describes results relative to the forecasts, not why they differed.
Margin error: The team's actual margin minus its forecast margin, in points. Positive means the team did better than forecast.
Error variability: The sample standard deviation of margin errors. Higher means the forecasts for this team's games were less consistent.
Winner picked: The share of the team's games in which the forecast winner won, whichever team that was. Teams play different mixes of close and lopsided games, so this alone is not a fair measure of how hard a team is to forecast.
Average margin miss: The mean absolute margin error. This is the headline measure of how hard a team's games were for this model to forecast.
Average margin error: The mean signed margin error. Consistently positive means the model underrated the team in this sample; negative, overrated.
Brier score: The mean squared difference between the team's pregame win probability and the result (1 for a win, 0 for a loss). It rewards confident correct forecasts and penalises confident wrong ones.
Intervals and samples: Ranges are 90% bootstrap intervals (1,000 resamples of the team's games). Under 20 games no ranking is shown; 20 to 59 games is exploratory; 60 or more is roughly a full season.

More on how forecasts are made and tested: Methodology.

Upcoming

Recent results

Predictability

2026-27 (in progress)

2025-26

2024-25

2023-24

2022-23

2022-23 to 2026-27

Surprise games

Most unexpected LAL wins

Most unexpected LAL losses

Largest margin misses

Recent results the forecast got wrong

Definitions