The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Mar 19

2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Atlanta Hawks at San Antonio Spurs

Sunday, March 19, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

ATL 1–4@SAS 4–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: ATL 76 percent, SAS 24 percent. ATL Hawks 76% proj. 126 · final 118 SAS Spurs · home 24% proj. 115 · final 126
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
ATL Atlanta Hawks 126 118 −8
SAS San Antonio Spurs (home) 115 126 +11

Forecast: Atlanta Hawks to win, 76% win probability, projected margin 11.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputATLSAS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15001294
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −136
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −0.1−9.5
Games played this season 7070
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 118.9109.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 119.2112.9
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 102.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.052.3
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingATL1500SAS1294

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

ATL1500

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1522 → started this one at 1517
  2. First 60 games: −3.6
  3. Last 10 games: −13.2
  • WBKN129–127+3.5
  • LWAS116–119−7.3
  • WPOR129–111+7.6
  • L@MIA109–117−7.1
  • L@MIA128–130−3.6
  • W@WAS122–120+6.2
  • W@WAS114–107+10.3
  • LBOS125–134−9.1
  • LMIN115–136−22.1
  • WGSW127–119+8.4

SAS1294

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1486 → started this one at 1489
  2. First 60 games: −215.9
  3. Last 10 games: +20.1
  • L@UTA102–118−4.0
  • W@UTA102–94+19.5
  • WIND110–99+13.8
  • LHOU110–122−16.5
  • L@HOU110–142−17.7
  • WDEN128–120+18.8
  • LOKC90–102−6.0
  • WORL132–114+21.4
  • LDAL128–137−6.2
  • LMEM120–126−3.0
Season scoring marginATL−0.1SAS−9.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

ATL−0.1

Scores 117.4, allows 117.5 over 70 games: −0.1 a game.

SAS−9.5

Scores 112.6, allows 122.1 over 70 games: −9.5 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10ATL118.9SAS109.0

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.0).

ATL118.9scored, +4.9 vs league

FactorATLLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.8%54.6%+1.8
Turnovers (TOV%)11.1%12.1%+1.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.9%23.8%+1.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2040.212−0.2
Everything else+0.0

SAS109.0scored, −5.0 vs league

FactorSASLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.4%54.6%−3.4
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%12.1%−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.0%23.8%+0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1640.212−1.4
Everything else−0.4
Defensive rating, last 10ATL119.2SAS112.9

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.0).

ATL119.2allowed, +5.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)58.8%54.6%−6.2
Turnovers (TOV%)11.7%12.1%−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.1%23.8%+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2080.212+0.1
Everything else+0.7

SAS112.9allowed, −1.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.9%54.6%+1.0
Turnovers (TOV%)12.1%12.1%+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.6%23.8%−0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2200.212−0.2
Everything else+0.5
Pace, last 10average 102.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

ATL 102.3 and SAS 101.8 → average 102.0 (league 2022-23 to date: 99.8)

Rotation points missingATL0.0SAS52.3

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

ATL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-03-19 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

SAS52.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Jeremy Sochan17.427.67
Devonte' Graham16.228.48
Doug McDermott11.021.87
Charles Bassey7.616.98

Source: official injury report, 2023-03-19 17:30 ET. 13 rotation players.

RestATL2 daysSAS2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

ATL2days

Last played Mar 17 against GSW.

SAS2days

Last played Mar 17 against MEM.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

ATL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Mar 17GSW127–11947-10016-4117-251013118.7111.2107.0
Mar 13MIN115–13644-974-2223-281518105.5125.9108.5
Mar 11BOS125–13450-10010-3415-161013121.4128.8103.5
Mar 10@WAS114–10742-9515-3115-191413111.8103.9102.5
Mar 8@WAS122–12045-8512-2920-26118120.8118.8101.0
Mar 6@MIA128–13051-929-2917-231012130.6132.798.0
Mar 4@MIA109–11737-799-3026-301610110.1117.099.5
Mar 3POR129–11152-9112-2613-161710125.2107.8103.0
Feb 28WAS116–11943-9313-3517-19913119.6125.396.0
Feb 26BKN129–12745-9016-3023-281513125.2121.0104.0

SAS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Mar 17MEM120–12639-9820-5222-291916107.1112.5101.4
Mar 15DAL128–13749-10715-3415-261016116.4124.599.6
Mar 14ORL132–11448-8522-4114-18147130.7112.9101.0
Mar 12OKC90–10233-8810-3614-19181089.1100.0101.5
Mar 10DEN128–12051-9413-3313-171813119.6113.2106.5
Mar 5@HOU110–14243-9311-3413-211513106.8136.5103.5
Mar 4HOU110–12238-8615-3719-201413112.2125.897.5
Mar 2IND110–9945-9810-3210-131513108.996.1102.0
Feb 28@UTA102–9439-918-2616-25129100.092.2102.0
Feb 25@UTA102–11838-979-3417-219999.0115.7102.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games
24%
pregame chance the forecast gave SAS, the winner
the forecast favored ATL
19 pts
margin miss
forecast −11, actual +8 for SAS
22nd
most surprising result of 2022-23
of 1,314 graded games
181st
largest margin miss of 2022-23
outcome surprise 1.43 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statATLSAS
Final score118126
Field goals48–101 · 47.5%51–94 · 54.3%
Three-pointers5–22 · 22.7%14–28 · 50.0%
Free throws17–20 · 85.0%10–16 · 62.5%
Rebounds5141
Assists2126
Turnovers1212
Steals49
Blocks45

How the model does with these teams over time: Atlanta Hawks · San Antonio Spurs

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (SAS)−11+8+19
Total points241244+3
ATL points126118−8
SAS points115126+11

Recent form before this game

Atlanta Hawks

DateOpponentResult
Mar 17 vs GSW W 127–119
Mar 13 vs MIN L 115–136
Mar 11 vs BOS L 125–134
Mar 10 at WAS W 114–107
Mar 8 at WAS W 122–120

San Antonio Spurs

DateOpponentResult
Mar 17 vs MEM L 120–126
Mar 15 vs DAL L 128–137
Mar 14 vs ORL W 132–114
Mar 12 vs OKC L 90–102
Mar 10 vs DEN W 128–120

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Feb 11 2022-23 SAS at ATL SAS 106 – 125 ATL
Feb 11 2021-22 SAS at ATL SAS 136 – 121 ATL
Nov 24 2021-22 ATL at SAS ATL 124 – 106 SAS