Western Conference · 2026-27

Houston Rockets HOU

7–3

2026-27 record

1615

Elo rating

with the forecast of Nov 7

118.6

Offensive rating

last 10 games

109.4

Defensive rating

last 10, lower is better

97.8

Pace

possessions per game

Hover the ball to see a season.

Every graded HOU game, one dot each, oldest at the center. 230 of 350 forecasts picked the winner (colored dots).

Elo rating, recent games

Pregame Elo stored with each of HOU's last 82 forecasts. Dashed: 1500, the long-run average.

Elo rating recorded with each team's most recent forecast. Higher is stronger; 1500 is the long-run average. HOU ranks 7 of 30.

Upcoming

Schedule

Nov 9 8:30 PM ET

DEN Denver Nuggets 5–3 –

@HOU Houston Rockets 7–3 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 11 9:30 PM ET

GSW Golden State Warriors 7–3 –

@HOU Houston Rockets 7–3 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 13 8:30 PM ET

UTA Utah Jazz 1–9 –

@HOU Houston Rockets 7–3 –

Forecast coming Details

Recent results

Predictability

How closely the forecasts tracked HOU games. A team can be hard for this model to forecast whether it is good or bad: misses come from the model's limits, roster changes, missing information and ordinary game-to-game variation. Compare all 30 teams

2026-27 (in progress)

Small sample: 10 games. These figures are a running log, not a measurement, and no ranking is shown.

13.1 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 8.9 to 17.9

+4.1

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -3.8 to 11.4

15.8 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.7

60%

winner picked

10 games involving HOU

7 / 6.3

actual / expected wins

gap +0.7

0.285

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 10 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	HOU win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 7	at PHX	68%	117–111	L 99–102	✗missed	−9
Nov 4	vs MIN	87%	118–101	L 107–117	✗missed	−27
Nov 2	vs BOS	53%	110–109	W 109–93	✓correct	+15
Oct 31	vs OKC	53%	110–109	W 119–98	✓correct	+20
Oct 30	at DAL	62%	116–112	L 111–116	✗missed	−9
Oct 28	at MIL	64%	115–110	W 132–100	✓correct	+27
Oct 26	vs ATL	67%	115–109	W 120–110	✓correct	+4
Oct 24	at ATL	62%	112–108	W 121–114	✓correct	+3
Oct 23	at SAS	41%	109–112	W 114–110	✗missed	+7
Oct 21	vs DAL	72%	120–112	W 128–110	✓correct	+10

2025-26

10.9 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.5 to 12.2; 13th smallest of 30

+0.0

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.3 to 2.4

13.5 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.4

63%

winner picked

88 games involving HOU

54 / 54.2

actual / expected wins

gap −0.2

0.229

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 88 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	HOU win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
May 1 PO	vs LAL	60%	109–105	L 78–98	✗missed	−24
Apr 29 PO	at LAL	41%	101–104	W 99–93	✗missed	+9
Apr 26 PO	vs LAL	65%	108–102	W 115–96	✓correct	+13
Apr 24 PO	vs LAL	65%	107–101	L 108–112	✗missed	−10
Apr 21 PO	at LAL	58%	105–102	L 94–101	✗missed	−10
Apr 18 PO	at LAL	53%	107–106	L 98–107	✗missed	−10
Apr 12	vs MEM	89%	124–106	W 132–101	✓correct	+13
Apr 10	vs MIN	78%	117–106	L 132–136	✗missed	−15
Apr 9	vs PHI	76%	122–112	W 113–102	✓correct	+1
Apr 7	at PHX	53%	114–113	W 119–105	✓correct	+13
Apr 5	at GSW	58%	116–113	W 117–116	✓correct	−2
Apr 3	vs UTA	90%	127–108	W 140–106	✓correct	+15
Apr 1	vs MIL	86%	119–103	W 119–113	✓correct	−10
Mar 31	vs NYK	42%	110–113	W 111–94	✗missed	+20
Mar 29	at NOP	47%	114–115	W 134–102	✗missed	+33
Mar 27	at MEM	66%	119–113	W 119–109	✓correct	+4
Mar 25	at MIN	44%	112–114	L 108–110	✓correct	±0
Mar 23	at CHI	58%	116–113	L 124–132	✗missed	−11
Mar 21	vs MIA	53%	117–116	W 123–122	✓correct	±0
Mar 20	vs ATL	53%	115–114	W 117–95	✓correct	+21
Mar 18	vs LAL	44%	112–114	L 116–124	✓correct	−6
Mar 16	vs LAL	47%	113–114	L 92–100	✓correct	−7
Mar 13	vs NOP	67%	121–115	W 107–105	✓correct	−4
Mar 11	at DEN	47%	116–117	L 93–129	✓correct	−35
Mar 10	vs TOR	59%	113–110	W 113–99	✓correct	+11
Mar 8	at SAS	39%	111–115	L 120–145	✓correct	−21
Mar 6	vs POR	74%	119–110	W 106–99	✓correct	−2
Mar 5	vs GSW	67%	114–108	L 113–115	✗missed	−8
Mar 2	at WAS	76%	120–110	W 123–118	✓correct	−5
Feb 28	at MIA	47%	113–114	L 105–115	✓correct	−9
Feb 26	at ORL	56%	109–107	W 113–108	✓correct	+3
Feb 25	vs SAC	82%	117–104	W 128–97	✓correct	+18
Feb 23	vs UTA	78%	118–107	W 125–105	✓correct	+9
Feb 21	at NYK	44%	106–108	L 106–108	✓correct	±0
Feb 19	at CHA	44%	106–108	W 105–101	✗missed	+6
Feb 11	vs LAC	53%	109–108	L 102–105	✗missed	−4
Feb 10	vs LAC	61%	112–108	W 102–95	✓correct	+3
Feb 7	at OKC	29%	106–114	W 112–106	✗missed	+14
Feb 5	vs CHA	47%	110–111	L 99–109	✓correct	−9
Feb 4	vs BOS	69%	112–105	L 93–114	✗missed	−28
Feb 2	at IND	58%	112–109	W 118–114	✓correct	+1
Jan 31	vs DAL	71%	120–112	W 111–107	✓correct	−4
Jan 29	at ATL	53%	111–110	W 104–86	✓correct	+17
Jan 28	vs SAS	56%	110–108	L 99–111	✗missed	−14
Jan 26	vs MEM	71%	117–109	W 108–99	✓correct	+1
Jan 23	at DET	39%	106–110	W 111–104	✗missed	+11
Jan 22	at PHI	47%	109–110	L 122–128	✓correct	−5
Jan 20	vs SAS	56%	109–107	W 111–106	✓correct	+3
Jan 18	vs NOP	76%	116–106	W 119–110	✓correct	−1
Jan 16	vs MIN	59%	114–111	W 110–105	✓correct	+2
Jan 15	vs OKC	47%	114–115	L 91–111	✓correct	−19
Jan 13	vs CHI	80%	117–105	W 119–113	✓correct	−6
Jan 11	at SAC	78%	117–106	L 98–111	✗missed	−24
Jan 9	at POR	64%	114–109	L 105–111	✗missed	−11
Jan 7	at POR	64%	113–108	L 102–103	✗missed	−6
Jan 5	vs PHX	56%	113–111	W 100–97	✓correct	+1
Jan 3	at DAL	64%	118–113	L 104–110	✗missed	−11
Jan 1	at BKN	74%	113–104	W 120–96	✓correct	+15
Dec 29	vs IND	78%	117–106	W 126–119	✓correct	−4
Dec 27	vs CLE	67%	120–114	W 117–100	✓correct	+11
Dec 25	at LAL	64%	118–113	W 119–96	✓correct	+18
Dec 23	at LAC	66%	115–109	L 108–128	✗missed	−26
Dec 21	at SAC	76%	119–109	L 124–125	✗missed	−11
Dec 20	at DEN	47%	116–117	W 115–101	✗missed	+15
Dec 18	at NOP	80%	125–113	L 128–133	✗missed	−17
Dec 15	at DEN	53%	116–115	L 125–128	✗missed	−4
Dec 11	vs LAC	74%	118–109	W 115–113	✓correct	−7
Dec 6	at DAL	71%	117–109	L 109–122	✗missed	−21
Dec 5	vs PHX	69%	119–112	W 117–98	✓correct	+12
Dec 3	vs SAC	89%	124–106	W 121–95	✓correct	+8
Dec 1	at UTA	81%	127–114	L 125–133	✗missed	−21
Nov 30	at UTA	81%	126–113	W 129–101	✓correct	+15
Nov 26	at GSW	47%	115–116	W 104–100	✗missed	+5
Nov 24	at PHX	58%	114–111	W 114–92	✓correct	+19
Nov 21	vs DEN	56%	119–117	L 109–112	✗missed	−5
Nov 19	at CLE	47%	117–118	W 114–104	✗missed	+11
Nov 16	vs ORL	74%	121–112	W 117–113	✓correct	−5
Nov 14	vs POR	67%	121–115	W 140–116	✓correct	+18
Nov 12	vs WAS	91%	125–105	W 135–112	✓correct	+3
Nov 9	at MIL	53%	118–117	W 122–115	✓correct	+6
Nov 7	at SAS	64%	115–110	L 110–121	✗missed	−16
Nov 5	at MEM	56%	116–114	W 124–109	✓correct	+13
Nov 3	vs DAL	83%	120–106	W 110–102	✓correct	−6
Nov 1	at BOS	47%	110–111	W 128–101	✗missed	+28
Oct 29	at TOR	53%	112–111	W 139–121	✓correct	+17
Oct 27	vs BKN	80%	115–103	W 137–109	✓correct	+16
Oct 24	vs DET	56%	112–110	L 111–115	✗missed	−6
Oct 21	at OKC	22%	105–116	L 124–125	✓correct	+10

2024-25

9.5 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 8.3 to 10.8; 3rd smallest of 30

+0.9

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -1.4 to 2.9

12.1 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

66%

winner picked

88 games involving HOU

55 / 51.4

actual / expected wins

gap +3.6

0.210

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 88 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	HOU win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
May 4 PO	vs GSW	49%	102–103	L 89–103	✓correct	−13
May 2 PO	at GSW	41%	101–104	W 115–107	✗missed	+11
Apr 30 PO	vs GSW	59%	104–101	W 131–116	✓correct	+12
Apr 28 PO	at GSW	33%	100–106	L 106–109	✓correct	+3
Apr 26 PO	at GSW	38%	105–109	L 93–104	✓correct	−7
Apr 23 PO	vs GSW	57%	109–107	W 109–94	✓correct	+13
Apr 20 PO	vs GSW	62%	114–110	L 85–95	✗missed	−14
Apr 13	vs DEN	59%	118–115	L 111–126	✗missed	−18
Apr 11	at LAL	38%	113–117	L 109–140	✓correct	−27
Apr 9	at LAC	38%	109–113	L 117–134	✓correct	−13
Apr 6	at GSW	41%	112–115	W 106–96	✗missed	+13
Apr 4	vs OKC	44%	114–117	W 125–111	✗missed	+17
Apr 2	vs UTA	90%	126–106	W 143–105	✓correct	+18
Mar 31	at LAL	46%	116–117	L 98–104	✓correct	−5
Mar 30	at PHX	59%	114–110	W 148–109	✓correct	+35
Mar 27	at UTA	83%	124–108	W 121–110	✓correct	−5
Mar 25	vs ATL	71%	121–113	W 121–114	✓correct	−1
Mar 23	vs DEN	67%	116–110	L 111–116	✗missed	−11
Mar 21	at MIA	61%	113–108	W 102–98	✓correct	−1
Mar 19	at ORL	56%	110–107	W 116–108	✓correct	+5
Mar 17	vs PHI	77%	121–110	W 144–137	✓correct	−4
Mar 15	vs CHI	67%	119–113	W 117–114	✓correct	−3
Mar 14	vs DAL	77%	119–108	W 133–96	✓correct	+26
Mar 12	vs PHX	73%	120–111	W 111–104	✓correct	−2
Mar 10	vs ORL	71%	115–107	W 97–84	✓correct	+5
Mar 8	vs NOP	71%	119–111	W 146–117	✓correct	+21
Mar 6	at NOP	56%	117–114	W 109–97	✓correct	+9
Mar 4	at IND	41%	115–118	L 102–115	✓correct	−10
Mar 3	at OKC	21%	111–123	L 128–137	✓correct	+3
Mar 1	vs SAC	62%	114–110	L 103–113	✗missed	−14
Feb 26	vs SAS	71%	118–110	W 118–106	✓correct	+4
Feb 25	vs MIL	59%	115–112	W 100–97	✓correct	±0
Feb 22	at UTA	61%	117–112	L 115–124	✗missed	−14
Feb 21	vs MIN	64%	111–106	W 121–115	✓correct	+1
Feb 13	vs GSW	54%	113–112	L 98–105	✗missed	−8
Feb 12	vs PHX	67%	115–109	W 119–111	✓correct	+2
Feb 9	vs TOR	71%	114–106	W 94–87	✓correct	−1
Feb 8	at DAL	51%	115–114	L 105–116	✗missed	−12
Feb 6	at MIN	51%	112–111	L 114–127	✗missed	−14
Feb 4	at BKN	59%	110–106	L 97–99	✗missed	−6
Feb 3	at NYK	43%	111–113	L 118–124	✓correct	−4
Feb 1	vs BKN	81%	117–104	L 98–110	✗missed	−25
Jan 30	at MEM	38%	116–120	L 119–120	✓correct	+3
Jan 28	at ATL	61%	120–115	W 100–96	✓correct	−1
Jan 27	at BOS	41%	110–113	W 114–112	✗missed	+5
Jan 25	at CLE	51%	115–114	W 135–131	✓correct	+3
Jan 22	vs CLE	49%	113–114	W 109–108	✗missed	+2
Jan 20	vs DET	67%	116–110	L 96–107	✗missed	−17
Jan 18	at POR	69%	115–107	W 125–103	✓correct	+14
Jan 16	at SAC	41%	111–114	L 127–132	✓correct	−2
Jan 15	at DEN	46%	111–112	W 128–108	✗missed	+21
Jan 13	vs MEM	62%	119–115	W 120–118	✓correct	−2
Jan 9	at MEM	31%	113–120	W 119–115	✗missed	+11
Jan 7	at WAS	66%	119–112	W 135–112	✓correct	+16
Jan 5	vs LAL	62%	112–108	W 119–115	✓correct	±0
Jan 3	vs BOS	41%	107–111	L 86–109	✓correct	−19
Jan 1	vs DAL	62%	111–107	W 110–99	✓correct	+7
Dec 29	vs MIA	71%	113–105	L 100–104	✗missed	−12
Dec 27	vs MIN	62%	110–106	L 112–113	✗missed	−5
Dec 26	at NOP	73%	120–110	W 128–111	✓correct	+7
Dec 23	at CHA	73%	114–104	W 114–101	✓correct	+3
Dec 22	at TOR	69%	115–107	W 114–110	✓correct	−4
Dec 19	vs NOP	82%	119–105	W 133–113	✓correct	+6
Dec 11	vs GSW	73%	116–107	W 91–90	✓correct	−8
Dec 8	at LAC	43%	111–113	W 117–106	✗missed	+13
Dec 5	at GSW	51%	114–113	L 93–99	✗missed	−7
Dec 3	at SAC	51%	116–115	L 111–120	✗missed	−10
Dec 1	vs OKC	57%	114–112	W 119–116	✓correct	+1
Nov 27	at PHI	66%	113–106	W 122–115	✓correct	±0
Nov 26	at MIN	31%	110–117	W 117–111	✗missed	+13
Nov 23	vs POR	79%	119–107	L 98–104	✗missed	−18
Nov 22	vs POR	79%	120–108	W 116–88	✓correct	+16
Nov 20	vs IND	77%	120–109	W 130–113	✓correct	+6
Nov 18	at MIL	54%	114–112	L 100–101	✗missed	−3
Nov 17	at CHI	61%	118–113	W 143–107	✓correct	+31
Nov 15	vs LAC	57%	109–107	W 125–104	✓correct	+19
Nov 13	vs LAC	59%	111–108	W 111–103	✓correct	+5
Nov 11	vs WAS	84%	121–106	W 107–92	✓correct	±0
Nov 10	at DET	61%	113–108	W 101–99	✓correct	−3
Nov 8	at OKC	27%	109–118	L 107–126	✓correct	−10
Nov 6	vs SAS	69%	114–107	W 127–100	✓correct	+20
Nov 4	vs NYK	57%	111–109	W 109–97	✓correct	+10
Nov 2	vs GSW	57%	113–111	L 121–127	✗missed	−8
Oct 31	at DAL	36%	109–114	W 108–102	✗missed	+11
Oct 28	at SAS	51%	116–115	W 106–101	✓correct	+4
Oct 26	at SAS	51%	117–116	L 106–109	✗missed	−4
Oct 25	vs MEM	73%	118–109	W 128–108	✓correct	+11
Oct 23	vs CHA	75%	115–105	L 105–110	✗missed	−15

2023-24

10.5 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.1 to 11.9; 8th smallest of 30

+1.0

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -1.5 to 3.2

13.1 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.3

60%

winner picked

82 games involving HOU

41 / 41.1

actual / expected wins

gap −0.1

0.219

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	HOU win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 14	at LAC	35%	107–112	W 116–105	✗missed	+16
Apr 12	at POR	53%	111–107	W 116–107	✓correct	+5
Apr 11	at UTA	74%	125–110	L 121–124	✗missed	−18
Apr 9	vs ORL	53%	112–113	W 118–106	✗missed	+13
Apr 7	at DAL	35%	110–115	L 136–147	✓correct	−6
Apr 5	vs MIA	57%	113–112	L 104–119	✗missed	−16
Apr 4	vs GSW	57%	115–114	L 110–133	✗missed	−24
Apr 2	at MIN	41%	111–113	L 106–113	✓correct	−5
Mar 31	vs DAL	61%	116–113	L 107–125	✗missed	−21
Mar 29	at UTA	59%	120–113	W 101–100	✓correct	−6
Mar 27	at OKC	30%	108–116	W 132–126	✗missed	+14
Mar 25	vs POR	68%	115–108	W 110–92	✓correct	+11
Mar 23	vs UTA	75%	121–110	W 147–119	✓correct	+17
Mar 21	vs CHI	53%	113–114	W 127–117	✗missed	+11
Mar 19	at WAS	69%	124–112	W 137–114	✓correct	+11
Mar 16	vs CLE	51%	109–111	W 117–103	✗missed	+16
Mar 14	vs WAS	72%	119–110	W 135–119	✓correct	+7
Mar 12	at SAS	49%	118–116	W 103–101	✓correct	±0
Mar 10	at SAC	39%	114–117	W 112–104	✗missed	+11
Mar 8	at POR	55%	114–109	W 123–107	✓correct	+11
Mar 6	vs LAC	47%	112–116	L 116–122	✓correct	−2
Mar 5	vs SAS	63%	118–114	W 114–101	✓correct	+9
Mar 2	at PHX	37%	114–118	W 118–109	✗missed	+13
Feb 29	at PHX	35%	116–121	L 105–110	✓correct	±0
Feb 27	at OKC	30%	112–120	L 95–112	✓correct	−9
Feb 25	vs OKC	43%	112–118	L 110–123	✓correct	−7
Feb 23	vs PHX	51%	117–119	W 114–110	✗missed	+6
Feb 22	at NOP	34%	111–117	L 105–127	✓correct	−16
Feb 14	at MEM	53%	114–110	L 113–121	✗missed	−12
Feb 12	vs NYK	53%	108–109	W 105–103	✗missed	+3
Feb 10	at ATL	37%	121–125	L 113–122	✓correct	−5
Feb 9	at TOR	51%	119–116	L 104–107	✗missed	−6
Feb 6	at IND	34%	114–120	L 129–132	✓correct	+3
Feb 4	at MIN	34%	110–116	L 90–111	✓correct	−15
Feb 2	vs TOR	59%	118–116	W 135–106	✓correct	+27
Jan 31	vs NOP	49%	115–118	L 99–110	✓correct	−8
Jan 29	vs LAL	51%	116–118	W 135–119	✗missed	+18
Jan 27	at BKN	47%	112–111	L 104–106	✗missed	−3
Jan 26	at CHA	51%	116–113	W 138–104	✓correct	+31
Jan 24	vs POR	70%	117–109	L 131–137	✗missed	−14
Jan 21	vs BOS	47%	111–115	L 107–116	✓correct	−5
Jan 20	vs UTA	47%	114–118	W 127–126	✗missed	+5
Jan 17	at NYK	32%	111–118	L 94–109	✓correct	−8
Jan 15	at PHI	34%	111–117	L 115–124	✓correct	−3
Jan 13	at BOS	30%	113–121	L 113–145	✓correct	−24
Jan 12	at DET	59%	122–115	W 112–110	✓correct	−5
Jan 10	at CHI	39%	112–115	L 119–124	✓correct	−2
Jan 8	at MIA	37%	111–115	L 113–120	✓correct	−3
Jan 6	vs MIL	49%	116–119	W 112–108	✗missed	+7
Jan 5	vs MIN	51%	114–116	L 95–122	✓correct	−25
Jan 3	vs BKN	68%	119–112	W 112–101	✓correct	+4
Jan 1	vs DET	78%	124–111	W 136–113	✓correct	+10
Dec 29	vs PHI	59%	112–110	L 127–131	✗missed	−6
Dec 27	vs PHX	65%	116–111	L 113–129	✗missed	−21
Dec 26	vs IND	70%	120–112	L 117–123	✗missed	−14
Dec 23	at NOP	34%	113–119	W 106–104	✗missed	+8
Dec 22	vs DAL	72%	122–113	W 122–96	✓correct	+17
Dec 20	vs ATL	65%	118–113	L 127–134	✗missed	−12
Dec 18	at CLE	41%	109–111	L 130–135	✓correct	−3
Dec 17	at MIL	37%	111–115	L 119–128	✓correct	−5
Dec 15	at MEM	51%	111–108	W 103–96	✓correct	+4
Dec 13	vs MEM	70%	112–104	W 117–104	✓correct	+5
Dec 11	vs SAS	78%	120–107	W 93–82	✓correct	−2
Dec 8	at DEN	35%	108–113	W 114–106	✗missed	+13
Dec 6	vs OKC	53%	111–112	W 110–101	✗missed	+10
Dec 2	at LAL	39%	112–115	L 97–107	✓correct	−7
Nov 29	at DEN	32%	106–113	L 124–134	✓correct	−3
Nov 28	at DAL	51%	113–110	L 115–121	✗missed	−9
Nov 24	vs DEN	51%	110–112	W 105–86	✗missed	+21
Nov 22	vs MEM	63%	112–108	W 111–91	✓correct	+16
Nov 20	at GSW	37%	112–116	L 116–121	✓correct	−1
Nov 19	at LAL	43%	112–113	L 104–105	✓correct	±0
Nov 17	at LAC	41%	111–113	L 100–106	✓correct	−4
Nov 12	vs DEN	53%	112–113	W 107–104	✗missed	+4
Nov 10	vs NOP	57%	113–112	W 104–101	✓correct	+2
Nov 8	vs LAL	49%	111–114	W 128–94	✗missed	+37
Nov 6	vs SAC	57%	114–113	W 122–97	✓correct	+24
Nov 4	vs SAC	51%	115–117	W 107–89	✗missed	+20
Nov 1	vs CHA	53%	114–115	W 128–119	✗missed	+10
Oct 29	vs GSW	49%	113–116	L 95–106	✓correct	−8
Oct 27	at SAS	43%	118–119	L 122–126	✓correct	−3
Oct 25	at ORL	34%	111–117	L 86–116	✓correct	−24

2022-23

9.1 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 7.8 to 10.3; 3rd smallest of 30

+0.1

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -1.9 to 2.2

11.5 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 10.3

76%

winner picked

82 games involving HOU

22 / 25.9

actual / expected wins

gap −3.9

0.185

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	HOU win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 9	at WAS	35%	113–119	W 114–109	✗missed	+11
Apr 7	at CHA	53%	114–113	W 112–109	✓correct	+2
Apr 4	vs DEN	35%	111–117	W 124–103	✗missed	+27
Apr 2	vs LAL	40%	116–120	L 109–134	✓correct	−21
Mar 31	vs DET	70%	115–107	W 121–115	✓correct	−2
Mar 29	at BKN	13%	104–122	L 114–123	✓correct	+9
Mar 27	at NYK	12%	103–122	L 115–137	✓correct	−3
Mar 26	at CLE	8%	103–126	L 91–108	✓correct	+6
Mar 24	at MEM	13%	104–122	L 114–151	✓correct	−19
Mar 22	at MEM	16%	105–121	L 125–130	✓correct	+11
Mar 20	vs GSW	32%	113–120	L 108–121	✓correct	−6
Mar 19	vs NOP	42%	113–116	L 107–117	✓correct	−7
Mar 17	vs NOP	40%	115–119	W 114–112	✗missed	+6
Mar 15	vs LAL	37%	115–120	W 114–110	✗missed	+9
Mar 13	vs BOS	30%	112–120	W 111–109	✗missed	+10
Mar 11	vs CHI	32%	110–117	L 111–119	✓correct	−1
Mar 9	at IND	19%	108–122	L 125–134	✓correct	+5
Mar 7	vs BKN	32%	114–121	L 96–118	✓correct	−15
Mar 5	vs SAS	63%	117–112	W 142–110	✓correct	+27
Mar 4	at SAS	53%	114–113	W 122–110	✓correct	+11
Mar 1	vs MEM	24%	114–125	L 99–113	✓correct	−3
Feb 28	vs DEN	24%	112–123	L 112–133	✓correct	−10
Feb 26	at POR	24%	110–121	L 114–131	✓correct	−6
Feb 24	at GSW	22%	110–122	L 101–116	✓correct	−3
Feb 15	at OKC	17%	109–124	L 96–133	✓correct	−22
Feb 13	at PHI	16%	104–120	L 104–123	✓correct	−3
Feb 10	at MIA	24%	106–117	L 95–97	✓correct	+9
Feb 8	vs SAC	40%	117–121	L 128–130	✓correct	+2
Feb 6	vs SAC	40%	117–121	L 120–140	✓correct	−16
Feb 4	at OKC	13%	105–123	L 121–153	✓correct	−14
Feb 3	vs TOR	42%	116–119	L 111–117	✓correct	−3
Feb 1	vs OKC	30%	115–123	W 112–106	✗missed	+14
Jan 28	at DET	30%	111–119	W 117–114	✗missed	+11
Jan 26	vs CLE	30%	111–119	L 95–113	✓correct	−10
Jan 25	vs WAS	37%	117–122	L 103–108	✓correct	±0
Jan 23	vs MIN	35%	117–123	W 119–114	✗missed	+11
Jan 21	at MIN	12%	105–124	L 104–113	✓correct	+10
Jan 18	vs CHA	47%	118–119	L 117–122	✓correct	−4
Jan 16	at LAL	20%	107–120	L 132–140	✓correct	+5
Jan 15	at LAC	28%	110–119	L 100–121	✓correct	−12
Jan 13	at SAC	17%	108–123	L 114–139	✓correct	−10
Jan 11	at SAC	20%	110–123	L 115–135	✓correct	−7
Jan 8	vs MIN	30%	112–120	L 96–104	✓correct	±0
Jan 5	vs UTA	35%	114–120	L 114–131	✓correct	−11
Jan 4	at NOP	24%	105–116	L 108–119	✓correct	±0
Jan 2	vs DAL	37%	110–115	L 106–111	✓correct	±0
Dec 31	vs NYK	45%	110–112	L 88–108	✓correct	−18
Dec 29	at DAL	24%	103–114	L 114–129	✓correct	−4
Dec 27	at BOS	30%	109–117	L 102–126	✓correct	−16
Dec 26	at CHI	28%	106–115	W 133–118	✗missed	+24
Dec 23	vs DAL	47%	109–110	L 106–112	✓correct	−5
Dec 21	vs ORL	37%	109–114	L 110–116	✓correct	−1
Dec 19	vs SAS	65%	113–107	L 105–124	✗missed	−25
Dec 17	vs POR	45%	114–116	L 95–107	✓correct	−10
Dec 15	vs MIA	42%	109–112	L 108–111	✓correct	±0
Dec 13	vs PHX	37%	111–116	W 111–97	✗missed	+19
Dec 11	vs MIL	30%	111–119	W 97–92	✗missed	+13
Dec 8	at SAS	63%	118–113	L 109–118	✗missed	−14
Dec 5	vs PHI	35%	108–114	W 132–123	✗missed	+15
Dec 3	at GSW	26%	109–119	L 101–120	✓correct	−9
Dec 2	at PHX	16%	107–123	W 122–121	✗missed	+17
Nov 30	at DEN	22%	106–118	L 100–120	✓correct	−8
Nov 28	at DEN	32%	108–115	L 113–129	✓correct	−9
Nov 26	vs OKC	32%	114–121	W 118–105	✗missed	+20
Nov 25	vs ATL	28%	110–119	W 128–122	✗missed	+15
Nov 20	vs GSW	30%	111–119	L 120–127	✓correct	+1
Nov 18	vs IND	30%	111–119	L 91–99	✓correct	±0
Nov 16	at DAL	32%	103–110	W 101–92	✗missed	+16
Nov 14	vs LAC	42%	110–113	L 106–122	✓correct	−13
Nov 12	at NOP	28%	107–116	L 106–119	✓correct	−4
Nov 9	at TOR	26%	106–116	L 109–116	✓correct	+3
Nov 7	at ORL	35%	109–115	W 134–127	✗missed	+13
Nov 5	at MIN	26%	105–115	L 117–129	✓correct	−2
Nov 2	vs LAC	32%	106–113	L 101–109	✓correct	−1
Oct 31	at LAC	37%	108–113	L 93–95	✓correct	+3
Oct 30	at PHX	19%	102–116	L 109–124	✓correct	−1
Oct 28	at POR	47%	109–110	L 111–125	✓correct	−13
Oct 26	at UTA	20%	103–116	L 101–109	✓correct	+5
Oct 24	vs UTA	32%	109–116	W 114–108	✗missed	+13
Oct 22	at MIL	20%	102–115	L 105–125	✓correct	−7
Oct 21	vs MEM	28%	109–118	L 122–129	✓correct	+2
Oct 19	at ATL	26%	106–116	L 107–117	✓correct	±0

2022-23 to 2026-27

10.1 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.5 to 10.7; 2nd smallest of 30

+0.6

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -0.4 to 1.7

12.6 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

66%

winner picked

350 games involving HOU

179 / 178.9

actual / expected wins

gap +0.1

0.213

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 350 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	HOU win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 7	at PHX	68%	117–111	L 99–102	✗missed	−9
Nov 4	vs MIN	87%	118–101	L 107–117	✗missed	−27
Nov 2	vs BOS	53%	110–109	W 109–93	✓correct	+15
Oct 31	vs OKC	53%	110–109	W 119–98	✓correct	+20
Oct 30	at DAL	62%	116–112	L 111–116	✗missed	−9
Oct 28	at MIL	64%	115–110	W 132–100	✓correct	+27
Oct 26	vs ATL	67%	115–109	W 120–110	✓correct	+4
Oct 24	at ATL	62%	112–108	W 121–114	✓correct	+3
Oct 23	at SAS	41%	109–112	W 114–110	✗missed	+7
Oct 21	vs DAL	72%	120–112	W 128–110	✓correct	+10
May 1 PO	vs LAL	60%	109–105	L 78–98	✗missed	−24
Apr 29 PO	at LAL	41%	101–104	W 99–93	✗missed	+9
Apr 26 PO	vs LAL	65%	108–102	W 115–96	✓correct	+13
Apr 24 PO	vs LAL	65%	107–101	L 108–112	✗missed	−10
Apr 21 PO	at LAL	58%	105–102	L 94–101	✗missed	−10
Apr 18 PO	at LAL	53%	107–106	L 98–107	✗missed	−10
Apr 12	vs MEM	89%	124–106	W 132–101	✓correct	+13
Apr 10	vs MIN	78%	117–106	L 132–136	✗missed	−15
Apr 9	vs PHI	76%	122–112	W 113–102	✓correct	+1
Apr 7	at PHX	53%	114–113	W 119–105	✓correct	+13
Apr 5	at GSW	58%	116–113	W 117–116	✓correct	−2
Apr 3	vs UTA	90%	127–108	W 140–106	✓correct	+15
Apr 1	vs MIL	86%	119–103	W 119–113	✓correct	−10
Mar 31	vs NYK	42%	110–113	W 111–94	✗missed	+20
Mar 29	at NOP	47%	114–115	W 134–102	✗missed	+33
Mar 27	at MEM	66%	119–113	W 119–109	✓correct	+4
Mar 25	at MIN	44%	112–114	L 108–110	✓correct	±0
Mar 23	at CHI	58%	116–113	L 124–132	✗missed	−11
Mar 21	vs MIA	53%	117–116	W 123–122	✓correct	±0
Mar 20	vs ATL	53%	115–114	W 117–95	✓correct	+21
Mar 18	vs LAL	44%	112–114	L 116–124	✓correct	−6
Mar 16	vs LAL	47%	113–114	L 92–100	✓correct	−7
Mar 13	vs NOP	67%	121–115	W 107–105	✓correct	−4
Mar 11	at DEN	47%	116–117	L 93–129	✓correct	−35
Mar 10	vs TOR	59%	113–110	W 113–99	✓correct	+11
Mar 8	at SAS	39%	111–115	L 120–145	✓correct	−21
Mar 6	vs POR	74%	119–110	W 106–99	✓correct	−2
Mar 5	vs GSW	67%	114–108	L 113–115	✗missed	−8
Mar 2	at WAS	76%	120–110	W 123–118	✓correct	−5
Feb 28	at MIA	47%	113–114	L 105–115	✓correct	−9
Feb 26	at ORL	56%	109–107	W 113–108	✓correct	+3
Feb 25	vs SAC	82%	117–104	W 128–97	✓correct	+18
Feb 23	vs UTA	78%	118–107	W 125–105	✓correct	+9
Feb 21	at NYK	44%	106–108	L 106–108	✓correct	±0
Feb 19	at CHA	44%	106–108	W 105–101	✗missed	+6
Feb 11	vs LAC	53%	109–108	L 102–105	✗missed	−4
Feb 10	vs LAC	61%	112–108	W 102–95	✓correct	+3
Feb 7	at OKC	29%	106–114	W 112–106	✗missed	+14
Feb 5	vs CHA	47%	110–111	L 99–109	✓correct	−9
Feb 4	vs BOS	69%	112–105	L 93–114	✗missed	−28
Feb 2	at IND	58%	112–109	W 118–114	✓correct	+1
Jan 31	vs DAL	71%	120–112	W 111–107	✓correct	−4
Jan 29	at ATL	53%	111–110	W 104–86	✓correct	+17
Jan 28	vs SAS	56%	110–108	L 99–111	✗missed	−14
Jan 26	vs MEM	71%	117–109	W 108–99	✓correct	+1
Jan 23	at DET	39%	106–110	W 111–104	✗missed	+11
Jan 22	at PHI	47%	109–110	L 122–128	✓correct	−5
Jan 20	vs SAS	56%	109–107	W 111–106	✓correct	+3
Jan 18	vs NOP	76%	116–106	W 119–110	✓correct	−1
Jan 16	vs MIN	59%	114–111	W 110–105	✓correct	+2
Jan 15	vs OKC	47%	114–115	L 91–111	✓correct	−19
Jan 13	vs CHI	80%	117–105	W 119–113	✓correct	−6
Jan 11	at SAC	78%	117–106	L 98–111	✗missed	−24
Jan 9	at POR	64%	114–109	L 105–111	✗missed	−11
Jan 7	at POR	64%	113–108	L 102–103	✗missed	−6
Jan 5	vs PHX	56%	113–111	W 100–97	✓correct	+1
Jan 3	at DAL	64%	118–113	L 104–110	✗missed	−11
Jan 1	at BKN	74%	113–104	W 120–96	✓correct	+15
Dec 29	vs IND	78%	117–106	W 126–119	✓correct	−4
Dec 27	vs CLE	67%	120–114	W 117–100	✓correct	+11
Dec 25	at LAL	64%	118–113	W 119–96	✓correct	+18
Dec 23	at LAC	66%	115–109	L 108–128	✗missed	−26
Dec 21	at SAC	76%	119–109	L 124–125	✗missed	−11
Dec 20	at DEN	47%	116–117	W 115–101	✗missed	+15
Dec 18	at NOP	80%	125–113	L 128–133	✗missed	−17
Dec 15	at DEN	53%	116–115	L 125–128	✗missed	−4
Dec 11	vs LAC	74%	118–109	W 115–113	✓correct	−7
Dec 6	at DAL	71%	117–109	L 109–122	✗missed	−21
Dec 5	vs PHX	69%	119–112	W 117–98	✓correct	+12
Dec 3	vs SAC	89%	124–106	W 121–95	✓correct	+8
Dec 1	at UTA	81%	127–114	L 125–133	✗missed	−21
Nov 30	at UTA	81%	126–113	W 129–101	✓correct	+15
Nov 26	at GSW	47%	115–116	W 104–100	✗missed	+5
Nov 24	at PHX	58%	114–111	W 114–92	✓correct	+19
Nov 21	vs DEN	56%	119–117	L 109–112	✗missed	−5
Nov 19	at CLE	47%	117–118	W 114–104	✗missed	+11
Nov 16	vs ORL	74%	121–112	W 117–113	✓correct	−5
Nov 14	vs POR	67%	121–115	W 140–116	✓correct	+18
Nov 12	vs WAS	91%	125–105	W 135–112	✓correct	+3
Nov 9	at MIL	53%	118–117	W 122–115	✓correct	+6
Nov 7	at SAS	64%	115–110	L 110–121	✗missed	−16
Nov 5	at MEM	56%	116–114	W 124–109	✓correct	+13
Nov 3	vs DAL	83%	120–106	W 110–102	✓correct	−6
Nov 1	at BOS	47%	110–111	W 128–101	✗missed	+28
Oct 29	at TOR	53%	112–111	W 139–121	✓correct	+17
Oct 27	vs BKN	80%	115–103	W 137–109	✓correct	+16
Oct 24	vs DET	56%	112–110	L 111–115	✗missed	−6
Oct 21	at OKC	22%	105–116	L 124–125	✓correct	+10
May 4 PO	vs GSW	49%	102–103	L 89–103	✓correct	−13
May 2 PO	at GSW	41%	101–104	W 115–107	✗missed	+11
Apr 30 PO	vs GSW	59%	104–101	W 131–116	✓correct	+12
Apr 28 PO	at GSW	33%	100–106	L 106–109	✓correct	+3
Apr 26 PO	at GSW	38%	105–109	L 93–104	✓correct	−7
Apr 23 PO	vs GSW	57%	109–107	W 109–94	✓correct	+13
Apr 20 PO	vs GSW	62%	114–110	L 85–95	✗missed	−14
Apr 13	vs DEN	59%	118–115	L 111–126	✗missed	−18
Apr 11	at LAL	38%	113–117	L 109–140	✓correct	−27
Apr 9	at LAC	38%	109–113	L 117–134	✓correct	−13
Apr 6	at GSW	41%	112–115	W 106–96	✗missed	+13
Apr 4	vs OKC	44%	114–117	W 125–111	✗missed	+17
Apr 2	vs UTA	90%	126–106	W 143–105	✓correct	+18
Mar 31	at LAL	46%	116–117	L 98–104	✓correct	−5
Mar 30	at PHX	59%	114–110	W 148–109	✓correct	+35
Mar 27	at UTA	83%	124–108	W 121–110	✓correct	−5
Mar 25	vs ATL	71%	121–113	W 121–114	✓correct	−1
Mar 23	vs DEN	67%	116–110	L 111–116	✗missed	−11
Mar 21	at MIA	61%	113–108	W 102–98	✓correct	−1
Mar 19	at ORL	56%	110–107	W 116–108	✓correct	+5
Mar 17	vs PHI	77%	121–110	W 144–137	✓correct	−4
Mar 15	vs CHI	67%	119–113	W 117–114	✓correct	−3
Mar 14	vs DAL	77%	119–108	W 133–96	✓correct	+26
Mar 12	vs PHX	73%	120–111	W 111–104	✓correct	−2
Mar 10	vs ORL	71%	115–107	W 97–84	✓correct	+5
Mar 8	vs NOP	71%	119–111	W 146–117	✓correct	+21
Mar 6	at NOP	56%	117–114	W 109–97	✓correct	+9
Mar 4	at IND	41%	115–118	L 102–115	✓correct	−10
Mar 3	at OKC	21%	111–123	L 128–137	✓correct	+3
Mar 1	vs SAC	62%	114–110	L 103–113	✗missed	−14
Feb 26	vs SAS	71%	118–110	W 118–106	✓correct	+4
Feb 25	vs MIL	59%	115–112	W 100–97	✓correct	±0
Feb 22	at UTA	61%	117–112	L 115–124	✗missed	−14
Feb 21	vs MIN	64%	111–106	W 121–115	✓correct	+1
Feb 13	vs GSW	54%	113–112	L 98–105	✗missed	−8
Feb 12	vs PHX	67%	115–109	W 119–111	✓correct	+2
Feb 9	vs TOR	71%	114–106	W 94–87	✓correct	−1
Feb 8	at DAL	51%	115–114	L 105–116	✗missed	−12
Feb 6	at MIN	51%	112–111	L 114–127	✗missed	−14
Feb 4	at BKN	59%	110–106	L 97–99	✗missed	−6
Feb 3	at NYK	43%	111–113	L 118–124	✓correct	−4
Feb 1	vs BKN	81%	117–104	L 98–110	✗missed	−25
Jan 30	at MEM	38%	116–120	L 119–120	✓correct	+3
Jan 28	at ATL	61%	120–115	W 100–96	✓correct	−1
Jan 27	at BOS	41%	110–113	W 114–112	✗missed	+5
Jan 25	at CLE	51%	115–114	W 135–131	✓correct	+3
Jan 22	vs CLE	49%	113–114	W 109–108	✗missed	+2
Jan 20	vs DET	67%	116–110	L 96–107	✗missed	−17
Jan 18	at POR	69%	115–107	W 125–103	✓correct	+14
Jan 16	at SAC	41%	111–114	L 127–132	✓correct	−2
Jan 15	at DEN	46%	111–112	W 128–108	✗missed	+21
Jan 13	vs MEM	62%	119–115	W 120–118	✓correct	−2
Jan 9	at MEM	31%	113–120	W 119–115	✗missed	+11
Jan 7	at WAS	66%	119–112	W 135–112	✓correct	+16
Jan 5	vs LAL	62%	112–108	W 119–115	✓correct	±0
Jan 3	vs BOS	41%	107–111	L 86–109	✓correct	−19
Jan 1	vs DAL	62%	111–107	W 110–99	✓correct	+7
Dec 29	vs MIA	71%	113–105	L 100–104	✗missed	−12
Dec 27	vs MIN	62%	110–106	L 112–113	✗missed	−5
Dec 26	at NOP	73%	120–110	W 128–111	✓correct	+7
Dec 23	at CHA	73%	114–104	W 114–101	✓correct	+3
Dec 22	at TOR	69%	115–107	W 114–110	✓correct	−4
Dec 19	vs NOP	82%	119–105	W 133–113	✓correct	+6
Dec 11	vs GSW	73%	116–107	W 91–90	✓correct	−8
Dec 8	at LAC	43%	111–113	W 117–106	✗missed	+13
Dec 5	at GSW	51%	114–113	L 93–99	✗missed	−7
Dec 3	at SAC	51%	116–115	L 111–120	✗missed	−10
Dec 1	vs OKC	57%	114–112	W 119–116	✓correct	+1
Nov 27	at PHI	66%	113–106	W 122–115	✓correct	±0
Nov 26	at MIN	31%	110–117	W 117–111	✗missed	+13
Nov 23	vs POR	79%	119–107	L 98–104	✗missed	−18
Nov 22	vs POR	79%	120–108	W 116–88	✓correct	+16
Nov 20	vs IND	77%	120–109	W 130–113	✓correct	+6
Nov 18	at MIL	54%	114–112	L 100–101	✗missed	−3
Nov 17	at CHI	61%	118–113	W 143–107	✓correct	+31
Nov 15	vs LAC	57%	109–107	W 125–104	✓correct	+19
Nov 13	vs LAC	59%	111–108	W 111–103	✓correct	+5
Nov 11	vs WAS	84%	121–106	W 107–92	✓correct	±0
Nov 10	at DET	61%	113–108	W 101–99	✓correct	−3
Nov 8	at OKC	27%	109–118	L 107–126	✓correct	−10
Nov 6	vs SAS	69%	114–107	W 127–100	✓correct	+20
Nov 4	vs NYK	57%	111–109	W 109–97	✓correct	+10
Nov 2	vs GSW	57%	113–111	L 121–127	✗missed	−8
Oct 31	at DAL	36%	109–114	W 108–102	✗missed	+11
Oct 28	at SAS	51%	116–115	W 106–101	✓correct	+4
Oct 26	at SAS	51%	117–116	L 106–109	✗missed	−4
Oct 25	vs MEM	73%	118–109	W 128–108	✓correct	+11
Oct 23	vs CHA	75%	115–105	L 105–110	✗missed	−15
Apr 14	at LAC	35%	107–112	W 116–105	✗missed	+16
Apr 12	at POR	53%	111–107	W 116–107	✓correct	+5
Apr 11	at UTA	74%	125–110	L 121–124	✗missed	−18
Apr 9	vs ORL	53%	112–113	W 118–106	✗missed	+13
Apr 7	at DAL	35%	110–115	L 136–147	✓correct	−6
Apr 5	vs MIA	57%	113–112	L 104–119	✗missed	−16
Apr 4	vs GSW	57%	115–114	L 110–133	✗missed	−24
Apr 2	at MIN	41%	111–113	L 106–113	✓correct	−5
Mar 31	vs DAL	61%	116–113	L 107–125	✗missed	−21
Mar 29	at UTA	59%	120–113	W 101–100	✓correct	−6
Mar 27	at OKC	30%	108–116	W 132–126	✗missed	+14
Mar 25	vs POR	68%	115–108	W 110–92	✓correct	+11
Mar 23	vs UTA	75%	121–110	W 147–119	✓correct	+17
Mar 21	vs CHI	53%	113–114	W 127–117	✗missed	+11
Mar 19	at WAS	69%	124–112	W 137–114	✓correct	+11
Mar 16	vs CLE	51%	109–111	W 117–103	✗missed	+16
Mar 14	vs WAS	72%	119–110	W 135–119	✓correct	+7
Mar 12	at SAS	49%	118–116	W 103–101	✓correct	±0
Mar 10	at SAC	39%	114–117	W 112–104	✗missed	+11
Mar 8	at POR	55%	114–109	W 123–107	✓correct	+11
Mar 6	vs LAC	47%	112–116	L 116–122	✓correct	−2
Mar 5	vs SAS	63%	118–114	W 114–101	✓correct	+9
Mar 2	at PHX	37%	114–118	W 118–109	✗missed	+13
Feb 29	at PHX	35%	116–121	L 105–110	✓correct	±0
Feb 27	at OKC	30%	112–120	L 95–112	✓correct	−9
Feb 25	vs OKC	43%	112–118	L 110–123	✓correct	−7
Feb 23	vs PHX	51%	117–119	W 114–110	✗missed	+6
Feb 22	at NOP	34%	111–117	L 105–127	✓correct	−16
Feb 14	at MEM	53%	114–110	L 113–121	✗missed	−12
Feb 12	vs NYK	53%	108–109	W 105–103	✗missed	+3
Feb 10	at ATL	37%	121–125	L 113–122	✓correct	−5
Feb 9	at TOR	51%	119–116	L 104–107	✗missed	−6
Feb 6	at IND	34%	114–120	L 129–132	✓correct	+3
Feb 4	at MIN	34%	110–116	L 90–111	✓correct	−15
Feb 2	vs TOR	59%	118–116	W 135–106	✓correct	+27
Jan 31	vs NOP	49%	115–118	L 99–110	✓correct	−8
Jan 29	vs LAL	51%	116–118	W 135–119	✗missed	+18
Jan 27	at BKN	47%	112–111	L 104–106	✗missed	−3
Jan 26	at CHA	51%	116–113	W 138–104	✓correct	+31
Jan 24	vs POR	70%	117–109	L 131–137	✗missed	−14
Jan 21	vs BOS	47%	111–115	L 107–116	✓correct	−5
Jan 20	vs UTA	47%	114–118	W 127–126	✗missed	+5
Jan 17	at NYK	32%	111–118	L 94–109	✓correct	−8
Jan 15	at PHI	34%	111–117	L 115–124	✓correct	−3
Jan 13	at BOS	30%	113–121	L 113–145	✓correct	−24
Jan 12	at DET	59%	122–115	W 112–110	✓correct	−5
Jan 10	at CHI	39%	112–115	L 119–124	✓correct	−2
Jan 8	at MIA	37%	111–115	L 113–120	✓correct	−3
Jan 6	vs MIL	49%	116–119	W 112–108	✗missed	+7
Jan 5	vs MIN	51%	114–116	L 95–122	✓correct	−25
Jan 3	vs BKN	68%	119–112	W 112–101	✓correct	+4
Jan 1	vs DET	78%	124–111	W 136–113	✓correct	+10
Dec 29	vs PHI	59%	112–110	L 127–131	✗missed	−6
Dec 27	vs PHX	65%	116–111	L 113–129	✗missed	−21
Dec 26	vs IND	70%	120–112	L 117–123	✗missed	−14
Dec 23	at NOP	34%	113–119	W 106–104	✗missed	+8
Dec 22	vs DAL	72%	122–113	W 122–96	✓correct	+17
Dec 20	vs ATL	65%	118–113	L 127–134	✗missed	−12
Dec 18	at CLE	41%	109–111	L 130–135	✓correct	−3
Dec 17	at MIL	37%	111–115	L 119–128	✓correct	−5
Dec 15	at MEM	51%	111–108	W 103–96	✓correct	+4
Dec 13	vs MEM	70%	112–104	W 117–104	✓correct	+5
Dec 11	vs SAS	78%	120–107	W 93–82	✓correct	−2
Dec 8	at DEN	35%	108–113	W 114–106	✗missed	+13
Dec 6	vs OKC	53%	111–112	W 110–101	✗missed	+10
Dec 2	at LAL	39%	112–115	L 97–107	✓correct	−7
Nov 29	at DEN	32%	106–113	L 124–134	✓correct	−3
Nov 28	at DAL	51%	113–110	L 115–121	✗missed	−9
Nov 24	vs DEN	51%	110–112	W 105–86	✗missed	+21
Nov 22	vs MEM	63%	112–108	W 111–91	✓correct	+16
Nov 20	at GSW	37%	112–116	L 116–121	✓correct	−1
Nov 19	at LAL	43%	112–113	L 104–105	✓correct	±0
Nov 17	at LAC	41%	111–113	L 100–106	✓correct	−4
Nov 12	vs DEN	53%	112–113	W 107–104	✗missed	+4
Nov 10	vs NOP	57%	113–112	W 104–101	✓correct	+2
Nov 8	vs LAL	49%	111–114	W 128–94	✗missed	+37
Nov 6	vs SAC	57%	114–113	W 122–97	✓correct	+24
Nov 4	vs SAC	51%	115–117	W 107–89	✗missed	+20
Nov 1	vs CHA	53%	114–115	W 128–119	✗missed	+10
Oct 29	vs GSW	49%	113–116	L 95–106	✓correct	−8
Oct 27	at SAS	43%	118–119	L 122–126	✓correct	−3
Oct 25	at ORL	34%	111–117	L 86–116	✓correct	−24
Apr 9	at WAS	35%	113–119	W 114–109	✗missed	+11
Apr 7	at CHA	53%	114–113	W 112–109	✓correct	+2
Apr 4	vs DEN	35%	111–117	W 124–103	✗missed	+27
Apr 2	vs LAL	40%	116–120	L 109–134	✓correct	−21
Mar 31	vs DET	70%	115–107	W 121–115	✓correct	−2
Mar 29	at BKN	13%	104–122	L 114–123	✓correct	+9
Mar 27	at NYK	12%	103–122	L 115–137	✓correct	−3
Mar 26	at CLE	8%	103–126	L 91–108	✓correct	+6
Mar 24	at MEM	13%	104–122	L 114–151	✓correct	−19
Mar 22	at MEM	16%	105–121	L 125–130	✓correct	+11
Mar 20	vs GSW	32%	113–120	L 108–121	✓correct	−6
Mar 19	vs NOP	42%	113–116	L 107–117	✓correct	−7
Mar 17	vs NOP	40%	115–119	W 114–112	✗missed	+6
Mar 15	vs LAL	37%	115–120	W 114–110	✗missed	+9
Mar 13	vs BOS	30%	112–120	W 111–109	✗missed	+10
Mar 11	vs CHI	32%	110–117	L 111–119	✓correct	−1
Mar 9	at IND	19%	108–122	L 125–134	✓correct	+5
Mar 7	vs BKN	32%	114–121	L 96–118	✓correct	−15
Mar 5	vs SAS	63%	117–112	W 142–110	✓correct	+27
Mar 4	at SAS	53%	114–113	W 122–110	✓correct	+11
Mar 1	vs MEM	24%	114–125	L 99–113	✓correct	−3
Feb 28	vs DEN	24%	112–123	L 112–133	✓correct	−10
Feb 26	at POR	24%	110–121	L 114–131	✓correct	−6
Feb 24	at GSW	22%	110–122	L 101–116	✓correct	−3
Feb 15	at OKC	17%	109–124	L 96–133	✓correct	−22
Feb 13	at PHI	16%	104–120	L 104–123	✓correct	−3
Feb 10	at MIA	24%	106–117	L 95–97	✓correct	+9
Feb 8	vs SAC	40%	117–121	L 128–130	✓correct	+2
Feb 6	vs SAC	40%	117–121	L 120–140	✓correct	−16
Feb 4	at OKC	13%	105–123	L 121–153	✓correct	−14
Feb 3	vs TOR	42%	116–119	L 111–117	✓correct	−3
Feb 1	vs OKC	30%	115–123	W 112–106	✗missed	+14
Jan 28	at DET	30%	111–119	W 117–114	✗missed	+11
Jan 26	vs CLE	30%	111–119	L 95–113	✓correct	−10
Jan 25	vs WAS	37%	117–122	L 103–108	✓correct	±0
Jan 23	vs MIN	35%	117–123	W 119–114	✗missed	+11
Jan 21	at MIN	12%	105–124	L 104–113	✓correct	+10
Jan 18	vs CHA	47%	118–119	L 117–122	✓correct	−4
Jan 16	at LAL	20%	107–120	L 132–140	✓correct	+5
Jan 15	at LAC	28%	110–119	L 100–121	✓correct	−12
Jan 13	at SAC	17%	108–123	L 114–139	✓correct	−10
Jan 11	at SAC	20%	110–123	L 115–135	✓correct	−7
Jan 8	vs MIN	30%	112–120	L 96–104	✓correct	±0
Jan 5	vs UTA	35%	114–120	L 114–131	✓correct	−11
Jan 4	at NOP	24%	105–116	L 108–119	✓correct	±0
Jan 2	vs DAL	37%	110–115	L 106–111	✓correct	±0
Dec 31	vs NYK	45%	110–112	L 88–108	✓correct	−18
Dec 29	at DAL	24%	103–114	L 114–129	✓correct	−4
Dec 27	at BOS	30%	109–117	L 102–126	✓correct	−16
Dec 26	at CHI	28%	106–115	W 133–118	✗missed	+24
Dec 23	vs DAL	47%	109–110	L 106–112	✓correct	−5
Dec 21	vs ORL	37%	109–114	L 110–116	✓correct	−1
Dec 19	vs SAS	65%	113–107	L 105–124	✗missed	−25
Dec 17	vs POR	45%	114–116	L 95–107	✓correct	−10
Dec 15	vs MIA	42%	109–112	L 108–111	✓correct	±0
Dec 13	vs PHX	37%	111–116	W 111–97	✗missed	+19
Dec 11	vs MIL	30%	111–119	W 97–92	✗missed	+13
Dec 8	at SAS	63%	118–113	L 109–118	✗missed	−14
Dec 5	vs PHI	35%	108–114	W 132–123	✗missed	+15
Dec 3	at GSW	26%	109–119	L 101–120	✓correct	−9
Dec 2	at PHX	16%	107–123	W 122–121	✗missed	+17
Nov 30	at DEN	22%	106–118	L 100–120	✓correct	−8
Nov 28	at DEN	32%	108–115	L 113–129	✓correct	−9
Nov 26	vs OKC	32%	114–121	W 118–105	✗missed	+20
Nov 25	vs ATL	28%	110–119	W 128–122	✗missed	+15
Nov 20	vs GSW	30%	111–119	L 120–127	✓correct	+1
Nov 18	vs IND	30%	111–119	L 91–99	✓correct	±0
Nov 16	at DAL	32%	103–110	W 101–92	✗missed	+16
Nov 14	vs LAC	42%	110–113	L 106–122	✓correct	−13
Nov 12	at NOP	28%	107–116	L 106–119	✓correct	−4
Nov 9	at TOR	26%	106–116	L 109–116	✓correct	+3
Nov 7	at ORL	35%	109–115	W 134–127	✗missed	+13
Nov 5	at MIN	26%	105–115	L 117–129	✓correct	−2
Nov 2	vs LAC	32%	106–113	L 101–109	✓correct	−1
Oct 31	at LAC	37%	108–113	L 93–95	✓correct	+3
Oct 30	at PHX	19%	102–116	L 109–124	✓correct	−1
Oct 28	at POR	47%	109–110	L 111–125	✓correct	−13
Oct 26	at UTA	20%	103–116	L 101–109	✓correct	+5
Oct 24	vs UTA	32%	109–116	W 114–108	✗missed	+13
Oct 22	at MIL	20%	102–115	L 105–125	✓correct	−7
Oct 21	vs MEM	28%	109–118	L 122–129	✓correct	+2
Oct 19	at ATL	26%	106–116	L 107–117	✓correct	±0

Surprise games

All HOU surprises

Across every graded season. The percentage is the pregame chance the forecast gave the team that won.

Most unexpected HOU wins

16%HOU beat PHX122–121Dec 2, 2022-23 · forecast PHX123–107 · missed margin by 17
28%HOU beat CHI133–118Dec 26, 2022-23 · forecast CHI115–106 · missed margin by 24
28%HOU beat ATL128–122Nov 25, 2022-23 · forecast ATL119–110 · missed margin by 15
29%HOU beat OKC112–106Feb 7, 2025-26 · forecast OKC114–106 · missed margin by 14
30%HOU beat OKC132–126Mar 27, 2023-24 · forecast OKC116–108 · missed margin by 14

Most unexpected HOU losses

13%MIN beat HOU117–107Nov 4, 2026-27 · forecast HOU118–101 · missed margin by 27
19%UTA beat HOU133–125Dec 1, 2025-26 · forecast HOU127–114 · missed margin by 21
19%BKN beat HOU110–98Feb 1, 2024-25 · forecast HOU117–104 · missed margin by 25
20%NOP beat HOU133–128Dec 18, 2025-26 · forecast HOU125–113 · missed margin by 17
21%POR beat HOU104–98Nov 23, 2024-25 · forecast HOU119–107 · missed margin by 18

Largest margin misses

49%HOU beat LAL128–94Nov 8, 2023-24 · forecast LAL114–111 · missed margin by 37
53%DEN beat HOU129–93Mar 11, 2025-26 · forecast DEN117–116 · missed margin by 35
59%HOU beat PHX148–109Mar 30, 2024-25 · forecast HOU114–110 · missed margin by 35
47%HOU beat NOP134–102Mar 29, 2025-26 · forecast NOP115–114 · missed margin by 33
61%HOU beat CHI143–107Nov 17, 2024-25 · forecast HOU118–113 · missed margin by 31

Definitions

Expected wins: The sum of the team's pregame win probabilities over the games in the sample (home: the stored home win probability; road: one minus it).
Wins vs expectation: Actual wins minus expected wins. It describes results relative to the forecasts, not why they differed.
Margin error: The team's actual margin minus its forecast margin, in points. Positive means the team did better than forecast.
Error variability: The sample standard deviation of margin errors. Higher means the forecasts for this team's games were less consistent.
Winner picked: The share of the team's games in which the forecast winner won, whichever team that was. Teams play different mixes of close and lopsided games, so this alone is not a fair measure of how hard a team is to forecast.
Average margin miss: The mean absolute margin error. This is the headline measure of how hard a team's games were for this model to forecast.
Average margin error: The mean signed margin error. Consistently positive means the model underrated the team in this sample; negative, overrated.
Brier score: The mean squared difference between the team's pregame win probability and the result (1 for a win, 0 for a loss). It rewards confident correct forecasts and penalises confident wrong ones.
Intervals and samples: Ranges are 90% bootstrap intervals (1,000 resamples of the team's games). Under 20 games no ranking is shown; 20 to 59 games is exploratory; 60 or more is roughly a full season.

More on how forecasts are made and tested: Methodology.

Upcoming

Recent results

Predictability

2026-27 (in progress)

2025-26

2024-25

2023-24

2022-23

2022-23 to 2026-27

Surprise games

Most unexpected HOU wins

Most unexpected HOU losses

Largest margin misses

Recent results the forecast got wrong

Definitions