Western Conference · 2026-27

Golden State Warriors GSW

7–3

2026-27 record

1509

Elo rating

with the forecast of Nov 7

116.9

Offensive rating

last 10 games

112.2

Defensive rating

last 10, lower is better

100.4

Pace

possessions per game

Hover the ball to see a season.

Every graded GSW game, one dot each, oldest at the center. 224 of 363 forecasts picked the winner (colored dots).

Elo rating, recent games

Pregame Elo stored with each of GSW's last 82 forecasts. Dashed: 1500, the long-run average.

Elo rating recorded with each team's most recent forecast. Higher is stronger; 1500 is the long-run average. GSW ranks 15 of 30.

Upcoming

Schedule

Nov 9 10:00 PM ET

NOP New Orleans Pelicans 4–6 –

@GSW Golden State Warriors 7–3 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 11 9:30 PM ET

GSW Golden State Warriors 7–3 –

@HOU Houston Rockets 7–3 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 13 9:30 PM ET

GSW Golden State Warriors 7–3 –

@SAS San Antonio Spurs 8–2 –

Forecast coming Details

Recent results

Predictability

How closely the forecasts tracked GSW games. A team can be hard for this model to forecast whether it is good or bad: misses come from the model's limits, roster changes, missing information and ordinary game-to-game variation. Compare all 30 teams

2026-27 (in progress)

Small sample: 10 games. These figures are a running log, not a measurement, and no ranking is shown.

12.5 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 8.4 to 17.4

+6.5

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -0.6 to 13.9

14.3 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.7

50%

winner picked

10 games involving GSW

7 / 4.6

actual / expected wins

gap +2.4

0.273

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 10 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	GSW win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 7	vs ORL	80%	119–107	W 126–119	✓correct	−5
Nov 5	vs MIA	52%	119–118	W 120–100	✓correct	+19
Nov 2	vs PHX	53%	114–113	W 116–113	✓correct	+2
Nov 1	vs LAC	47%	112–113	W 124–112	✗missed	+13
Oct 30	vs LAL	44%	114–116	W 112–95	✗missed	+19
Oct 28	at MIN	31%	111–118	W 119–114	✗missed	+12
Oct 26	at DEN	24%	109–119	W 134–114	✗missed	+30
Oct 24	at PHX	31%	109–116	L 122–131	✓correct	−2
Oct 23	vs MEM	62%	121–117	L 108–111	✗missed	−7
Oct 21	at LAL	33%	110–116	L 105–127	✓correct	−16

2025-26

10.4 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.1 to 12.0; 6th smallest of 30

−1.6

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -3.9 to 0.8

12.9 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.4

63%

winner picked

82 games involving GSW

37 / 43.2

actual / expected wins

gap −6.2

0.208

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	GSW win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 12	at LAC	29%	109–117	L 110–115	✓correct	+3
Apr 10	at SAC	58%	117–114	L 118–124	✗missed	−9
Apr 9	vs LAL	47%	116–117	L 103–119	✓correct	−15
Apr 7	vs SAC	64%	116–111	W 110–105	✓correct	±0
Apr 5	vs HOU	42%	113–116	L 116–117	✓correct	+2
Apr 2	vs CLE	39%	116–120	L 111–118	✓correct	−3
Apr 1	vs SAS	17%	110–124	L 113–127	✓correct	±0
Mar 29	at DEN	36%	119–124	L 93–116	✓correct	−18
Mar 27	vs WAS	76%	123–113	W 131–126	✓correct	−5
Mar 25	vs BKN	80%	119–107	W 109–106	✓correct	−9
Mar 23	at DAL	58%	118–115	W 137–131	✓correct	+3
Mar 21	at ATL	24%	111–121	L 110–126	✓correct	−6
Mar 20	at DET	26%	107–116	L 101–115	✓correct	−5
Mar 18	at BOS	24%	107–117	L 99–120	✓correct	−11
Mar 16	at WAS	64%	118–113	W 125–117	✓correct	+3
Mar 15	at NYK	19%	107–120	L 107–110	✓correct	+10
Mar 13	vs MIN	53%	115–114	L 117–127	✗missed	−11
Mar 10	vs CHI	59%	118–115	L 124–130	✗missed	−9
Mar 9	at UTA	69%	117–110	L 116–119	✗missed	−10
Mar 7	at OKC	26%	107–116	L 97–104	✓correct	+2
Mar 5	at HOU	34%	108–114	W 115–113	✗missed	+8
Mar 2	vs LAC	53%	113–112	L 101–114	✗missed	−14
Feb 28	vs LAL	56%	116–114	L 101–129	✗missed	−30
Feb 25	at MEM	53%	120–119	W 133–112	✓correct	+20
Feb 24	at NOP	58%	115–112	L 109–113	✗missed	−7
Feb 22	vs DEN	47%	113–114	W 128–117	✗missed	+12
Feb 19	vs BOS	34%	105–111	L 110–121	✓correct	−5
Feb 11	vs SAS	47%	114–115	L 113–126	✓correct	−12
Feb 9	vs MEM	69%	121–114	W 114–113	✓correct	−6
Feb 7	at LAL	39%	113–117	L 99–105	✓correct	−2
Feb 5	at PHX	34%	114–120	W 101–97	✗missed	+10
Feb 3	vs PHI	76%	122–112	L 94–113	✗missed	−29
Jan 30	vs DET	53%	115–114	L 124–131	✗missed	−8
Jan 28	at UTA	76%	125–115	W 140–124	✓correct	+6
Jan 26	at MIN	36%	115–120	L 83–108	✓correct	−20
Jan 25	at MIN	34%	116–122	W 111–85	✗missed	+32
Jan 22	at DAL	53%	117–116	L 115–123	✗missed	−9
Jan 20	vs TOR	61%	115–111	L 127–145	✗missed	−22
Jan 19	vs MIA	61%	122–118	W 135–112	✓correct	+19
Jan 17	vs CHA	53%	116–115	W 136–116	✓correct	+19
Jan 15	vs NYK	64%	117–112	W 126–113	✓correct	+8
Jan 13	vs POR	61%	118–114	W 119–97	✓correct	+18
Jan 11	vs ATL	56%	119–117	L 111–124	✗missed	−15
Jan 9	vs SAC	80%	120–108	W 137–103	✓correct	+22
Jan 7	vs MIL	64%	116–111	W 120–113	✓correct	+2
Jan 5	at LAC	53%	114–113	L 102–103	✗missed	−2
Jan 3	vs UTA	74%	126–117	W 123–114	✓correct	±0
Jan 2	vs OKC	42%	116–119	L 94–131	✓correct	−34
Dec 31	at CHA	61%	118–114	W 132–125	✓correct	+3
Dec 29	at BKN	53%	112–111	W 120–107	✓correct	+12
Dec 28	at TOR	61%	114–110	L 127–141	✗missed	−18
Dec 25	vs DAL	67%	119–113	W 126–116	✓correct	+4
Dec 22	vs ORL	67%	118–112	W 120–97	✓correct	+17
Dec 20	vs PHX	64%	114–109	W 119–116	✓correct	−2
Dec 18	at PHX	53%	115–114	L 98–99	✗missed	−2
Dec 14	at POR	66%	119–113	L 131–136	✗missed	−11
Dec 12	vs MIN	56%	113–111	L 120–127	✗missed	−9
Dec 7	at CHI	66%	117–111	W 123–91	✓correct	+26
Dec 6	at CLE	34%	114–120	W 99–94	✗missed	+11
Dec 4	at PHI	53%	116–115	L 98–99	✗missed	−2
Dec 2	vs OKC	47%	112–113	L 112–124	✓correct	−11
Nov 29	vs NOP	80%	121–109	W 104–96	✓correct	−4
Nov 26	vs HOU	53%	116–115	L 100–104	✗missed	−5
Nov 24	vs UTA	76%	122–112	W 134–117	✓correct	+7
Nov 21	vs POR	74%	123–114	L 123–127	✗missed	−13
Nov 19	at MIA	44%	118–120	L 96–110	✓correct	−12
Nov 18	at ORL	44%	114–116	L 113–121	✓correct	−6
Nov 16	at NOP	69%	117–110	W 124–106	✓correct	+11
Nov 14	at SAS	47%	117–118	W 109–108	✗missed	+2
Nov 12	at SAS	41%	114–117	W 125–120	✗missed	+8
Nov 11	at OKC	19%	110–123	L 102–126	✓correct	−11
Nov 9	vs IND	78%	121–110	W 114–83	✓correct	+20
Nov 7	at DEN	34%	113–119	L 104–129	✓correct	−19
Nov 5	at SAC	58%	115–112	L 116–121	✗missed	−8
Nov 4	vs PHX	69%	121–114	W 118–107	✓correct	+4
Nov 1	at IND	56%	112–110	L 109–114	✗missed	−7
Oct 30	at MIL	41%	113–116	L 110–120	✓correct	−7
Oct 28	vs LAC	53%	111–110	W 98–79	✓correct	+18
Oct 27	vs MEM	64%	119–114	W 131–118	✓correct	+8
Oct 24	at POR	44%	110–112	L 119–139	✓correct	−18
Oct 23	vs DEN	59%	112–109	W 137–131	✓correct	+3
Oct 21	at LAL	47%	110–111	W 119–109	✗missed	+11

2024-25

12.3 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.7 to 14.0; 28th smallest of 30

+0.8

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -1.8 to 3.5

15.8 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

60%

winner picked

94 games involving GSW

53 / 50.9

actual / expected wins

gap +2.1

0.235

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 94 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	GSW win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
May 14 PO	at MIN	31%	101–108	L 110–121	✓correct	−4
May 12 PO	vs MIN	57%	100–98	L 110–117	✗missed	−9
May 10 PO	vs MIN	62%	101–97	L 97–102	✗missed	−9
May 8 PO	at MIN	23%	94–105	L 93–117	✓correct	−13
May 6 PO	at MIN	31%	99–106	W 99–88	✗missed	+18
May 4 PO	at HOU	51%	103–102	W 103–89	✓correct	+13
May 2 PO	vs HOU	59%	104–101	L 107–115	✗missed	−11
Apr 30 PO	at HOU	41%	101–104	L 116–131	✓correct	−12
Apr 28 PO	vs HOU	67%	106–100	W 109–106	✓correct	−3
Apr 26 PO	vs HOU	62%	109–105	W 104–93	✓correct	+7
Apr 23 PO	at HOU	43%	107–109	L 94–109	✓correct	−13
Apr 20 PO	at HOU	38%	110–114	W 95–85	✗missed	+14
Apr 13	vs LAC	49%	110–111	L 119–124	✓correct	−4
Apr 11	at POR	61%	118–113	W 103–86	✓correct	+12
Apr 9	vs SAS	82%	123–109	L 111–114	✗missed	−17
Apr 8	at PHX	64%	117–111	W 133–95	✓correct	+32
Apr 6	vs HOU	59%	115–112	L 96–106	✗missed	−13
Apr 4	vs DEN	59%	116–113	W 118–104	✓correct	+11
Apr 3	at LAL	51%	116–115	W 123–116	✓correct	+6
Apr 1	at MEM	46%	114–115	W 134–125	✗missed	+10
Mar 30	at SAS	51%	116–115	W 148–106	✓correct	+41
Mar 28	at NOP	77%	120–108	W 111–95	✓correct	+4
Mar 25	at MIA	64%	114–108	L 86–112	✗missed	−32
Mar 22	at ATL	46%	118–119	L 115–124	✓correct	−8
Mar 20	vs TOR	77%	120–109	W 117–114	✓correct	−8
Mar 18	vs MIL	57%	117–115	W 104–93	✓correct	+9
Mar 17	vs DEN	67%	119–113	L 105–114	✗missed	−15
Mar 15	vs NYK	64%	114–109	W 97–94	✓correct	−2
Mar 13	vs SAC	54%	114–113	W 130–104	✓correct	+25
Mar 10	vs POR	69%	120–113	W 130–120	✓correct	+3
Mar 8	vs DET	62%	118–114	W 115–110	✓correct	+1
Mar 6	at BKN	66%	114–107	W 121–119	✓correct	−5
Mar 4	at NYK	41%	115–118	W 114–102	✗missed	+15
Mar 3	at CHA	69%	118–110	W 119–101	✓correct	+10
Mar 1	at PHI	71%	118–109	L 119–126	✗missed	−16
Feb 27	at ORL	56%	113–110	W 121–115	✓correct	+3
Feb 25	vs CHA	81%	119–106	W 128–92	✓correct	+23
Feb 23	vs DAL	62%	118–114	W 126–102	✓correct	+20
Feb 21	at SAC	36%	113–118	W 132–108	✗missed	+29
Feb 13	at HOU	46%	112–113	W 105–98	✗missed	+8
Feb 12	at DAL	51%	120–119	L 107–111	✗missed	−5
Feb 10	at MIL	54%	120–118	W 125–111	✓correct	+12
Feb 8	at CHI	51%	118–117	W 132–111	✓correct	+20
Feb 6	at LAL	31%	109–116	L 112–120	✓correct	−1
Feb 5	at UTA	61%	117–112	L 128–131	✗missed	−8
Feb 3	vs ORL	64%	113–108	W 104–99	✓correct	±0
Jan 31	vs PHX	57%	114–112	L 105–130	✗missed	−27
Jan 29	vs OKC	29%	108–117	W 116–109	✗missed	+16
Jan 28	vs UTA	77%	116–105	W 114–103	✓correct	±0
Jan 25	vs LAL	44%	110–113	L 108–118	✓correct	−7
Jan 23	vs CHI	57%	116–114	W 131–106	✓correct	+23
Jan 22	at SAC	31%	110–117	L 117–123	✓correct	+1
Jan 20	vs BOS	34%	103–110	L 85–125	✓correct	−33
Jan 18	vs WAS	64%	115–110	W 122–114	✓correct	+3
Jan 15	at MIN	31%	104–111	W 116–115	✗missed	+8
Jan 13	at TOR	54%	115–113	L 101–104	✗missed	−5
Jan 10	at IND	29%	109–117	L 96–108	✓correct	−4
Jan 9	at DET	43%	112–114	W 107–104	✗missed	+5
Jan 7	vs MIA	54%	112–111	L 98–114	✗missed	−17
Jan 5	vs SAC	59%	117–114	L 99–129	✗missed	−33
Jan 4	vs MEM	49%	116–117	W 121–113	✗missed	+9
Jan 2	vs PHI	59%	112–109	W 139–105	✓correct	+31
Dec 30	vs CLE	34%	107–114	L 95–113	✓correct	−11
Dec 28	vs PHX	64%	113–108	W 109–105	✓correct	−1
Dec 27	at LAC	31%	107–114	L 92–102	✓correct	−3
Dec 25	vs LAL	59%	113–110	L 113–115	✗missed	−5
Dec 23	vs IND	64%	117–112	L 105–111	✗missed	−11
Dec 21	at MIN	41%	108–111	W 113–103	✗missed	+13
Dec 19	at MEM	38%	115–119	L 93–144	✓correct	−47
Dec 15	vs DAL	59%	115–112	L 133–143	✗missed	−13
Dec 11	at HOU	27%	107–116	L 90–91	✓correct	+8
Dec 8	vs MIN	64%	110–105	W 114–106	✓correct	+3
Dec 6	vs MIN	69%	113–106	L 90–107	✗missed	−24
Dec 5	vs HOU	49%	113–114	W 99–93	✗missed	+7
Dec 3	at DEN	29%	112–120	L 115–119	✓correct	+4
Nov 30	at PHX	46%	116–117	L 105–113	✓correct	−7
Nov 27	vs OKC	54%	113–112	L 101–105	✗missed	−5
Nov 25	vs BKN	79%	118–106	L 120–128	✗missed	−20
Nov 23	at SAS	56%	118–115	L 94–104	✗missed	−13
Nov 22	at NOP	69%	115–107	W 112–108	✓correct	−4
Nov 20	vs ATL	73%	122–113	W 120–97	✓correct	+14
Nov 18	at LAC	54%	115–113	L 99–102	✗missed	−5
Nov 15	vs MEM	75%	121–111	W 123–118	✓correct	−5
Nov 12	vs DAL	71%	119–111	W 120–117	✓correct	−5
Nov 10	at OKC	25%	110–120	W 127–116	✗missed	+21
Nov 8	at CLE	36%	112–117	L 117–136	✓correct	−14
Nov 6	at BOS	38%	111–115	W 118–112	✗missed	+10
Nov 4	at WAS	73%	121–111	W 125–112	✓correct	+3
Nov 2	at HOU	43%	111–113	W 127–121	✗missed	+8
Oct 30	vs NOP	73%	117–108	W 104–89	✓correct	+6
Oct 29	vs NOP	64%	116–111	W 124–106	✓correct	+13
Oct 27	vs LAC	71%	116–108	L 104–112	✗missed	−16
Oct 25	at UTA	66%	118–111	W 127–86	✓correct	+34
Oct 23	at POR	64%	114–108	W 140–104	✓correct	+30

2023-24

10.1 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 8.5 to 11.8; 5th smallest of 30

+1.0

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -1.4 to 3.2

13.5 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.3

62%

winner picked

82 games involving GSW

46 / 43.5

actual / expected wins

gap +2.5

0.237

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	GSW win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 14	vs UTA	76%	115–103	W 123–116	✓correct	−5
Apr 12	vs NOP	57%	111–110	L 109–114	✗missed	−6
Apr 11	at POR	53%	113–109	W 100–92	✓correct	+4
Apr 9	at LAL	35%	112–117	W 134–120	✗missed	+19
Apr 7	vs UTA	76%	119–107	W 118–110	✓correct	−4
Apr 5	at DAL	39%	109–112	L 106–108	✓correct	+1
Apr 4	at HOU	43%	114–115	W 133–110	✗missed	+24
Apr 2	vs DAL	63%	113–109	W 104–100	✓correct	±0
Mar 31	at SAS	61%	115–107	W 117–113	✓correct	−4
Mar 29	at CHA	57%	113–107	W 115–97	✓correct	+12
Mar 27	at ORL	30%	107–115	W 101–93	✗missed	+16
Mar 26	at MIA	43%	109–110	W 113–92	✗missed	+22
Mar 24	at MIN	41%	111–113	L 110–114	✓correct	−2
Mar 22	vs IND	63%	118–114	L 111–123	✗missed	−16
Mar 20	vs MEM	76%	115–103	W 137–116	✓correct	+9
Mar 18	vs NYK	53%	104–105	L 112–119	✓correct	−6
Mar 16	at LAL	43%	115–116	W 128–121	✗missed	+8
Mar 13	at DAL	39%	117–120	L 99–109	✓correct	−7
Mar 11	at SAS	55%	120–115	W 112–102	✓correct	+5
Mar 9	vs SAS	68%	118–111	L 113–126	✗missed	−20
Mar 7	vs CHI	65%	116–111	L 122–125	✗missed	−8
Mar 6	vs MIL	59%	110–108	W 125–90	✓correct	+33
Mar 3	at BOS	30%	110–118	L 88–140	✓correct	−44
Mar 1	at TOR	49%	121–119	W 120–105	✓correct	+13
Feb 29	at NYK	39%	112–115	W 110–99	✗missed	+14
Feb 27	at WAS	65%	121–111	W 123–112	✓correct	+1
Feb 25	vs DEN	63%	117–113	L 103–119	✗missed	−20
Feb 23	vs CHA	82%	125–109	W 97–84	✓correct	−3
Feb 22	vs LAL	65%	121–116	W 128–110	✓correct	+13
Feb 15	at UTA	47%	122–121	W 140–137	✓correct	+2
Feb 14	vs LAC	63%	118–114	L 125–130	✗missed	−9
Feb 12	at UTA	43%	120–121	W 129–107	✗missed	+23
Feb 10	vs PHX	59%	116–114	W 113–112	✓correct	−1
Feb 8	at IND	35%	116–121	W 131–109	✗missed	+27
Feb 7	at PHI	43%	117–118	W 127–104	✗missed	+24
Feb 5	at BKN	41%	113–115	W 109–98	✗missed	+13
Feb 3	at ATL	41%	116–118	L 134–141	✓correct	−5
Feb 2	at MEM	53%	111–107	W 121–101	✓correct	+16
Jan 30	vs PHI	49%	118–121	W 119–107	✗missed	+15
Jan 27	vs LAL	51%	120–122	L 144–145	✓correct	+1
Jan 25	vs SAC	47%	118–122	L 133–134	✓correct	+3
Jan 24	vs ATL	65%	123–118	W 134–112	✓correct	+17
Jan 15	at MEM	57%	116–110	L 107–116	✗missed	−15
Jan 13	at MIL	30%	114–122	L 118–129	✓correct	−3
Jan 12	at CHI	43%	112–113	W 140–131	✗missed	+10
Jan 10	vs NOP	49%	114–117	L 105–141	✓correct	−33
Jan 7	vs TOR	57%	118–117	L 118–133	✗missed	−16
Jan 5	vs DET	79%	127–113	W 113–109	✓correct	−10
Jan 4	vs DEN	51%	116–118	L 127–130	✓correct	−1
Jan 2	vs ORL	57%	118–117	W 121–115	✓correct	+5
Dec 30	vs DAL	63%	119–115	L 122–132	✗missed	−14
Dec 28	vs MIA	63%	118–114	L 102–114	✗missed	−16
Dec 25	at DEN	37%	112–116	L 114–120	✓correct	−2
Dec 23	vs POR	73%	121–111	W 126–106	✓correct	+10
Dec 22	vs WAS	70%	122–114	W 129–118	✓correct	+3
Dec 19	vs BOS	53%	116–117	W 132–126	✗missed	+7
Dec 17	at POR	47%	116–115	W 118–114	✓correct	+3
Dec 16	vs BKN	61%	117–114	W 124–120	✓correct	+1
Dec 14	at LAC	34%	112–118	L 113–121	✓correct	−2
Dec 12	at PHX	51%	117–114	L 116–119	✗missed	−6
Dec 8	at OKC	32%	111–118	L 136–138	✓correct	+5
Dec 6	vs POR	73%	119–109	W 110–106	✓correct	−6
Dec 2	at LAC	34%	109–115	L 112–113	✓correct	+5
Nov 30	vs LAC	57%	115–114	W 120–114	✓correct	+5
Nov 28	at SAC	39%	115–118	L 123–124	✓correct	+2
Nov 24	vs SAS	73%	119–109	W 118–112	✓correct	−4
Nov 22	at PHX	43%	115–116	L 115–123	✓correct	−7
Nov 20	vs HOU	63%	116–112	W 121–116	✓correct	+1
Nov 18	vs OKC	59%	115–113	L 123–130	✗missed	−9
Nov 16	vs OKC	65%	116–111	L 109–128	✗missed	−24
Nov 14	vs MIN	53%	109–110	L 101–104	✓correct	−2
Nov 12	vs MIN	53%	108–109	L 110–116	✓correct	−5
Nov 11	vs CLE	65%	115–110	L 110–118	✗missed	−13
Nov 8	at DEN	43%	112–113	L 105–108	✓correct	−2
Nov 6	at DET	53%	116–112	W 120–109	✓correct	+7
Nov 5	at CLE	41%	109–111	L 104–115	✓correct	−9
Nov 3	at OKC	39%	114–117	W 141–139	✗missed	+5
Nov 1	vs SAC	73%	119–109	W 102–101	✓correct	−9
Oct 30	at NOP	35%	110–115	W 130–102	✗missed	+33
Oct 29	at HOU	51%	116–113	W 106–95	✓correct	+8
Oct 27	at SAC	41%	114–116	W 122–114	✗missed	+10
Oct 24	vs PHX	63%	116–112	L 104–108	✗missed	−8

2022-23

11.2 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.8 to 12.8; 23rd smallest of 30

+0.0

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.5 to 2.3

14.4 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 10.3

63%

winner picked

95 games involving GSW

50 / 51.0

actual / expected wins

gap −1.0

0.224

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 95 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	GSW win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
May 12 PO	at LAL	35%	109–115	L 101–122	✓correct	−15
May 10 PO	vs LAL	65%	115–109	W 121–106	✓correct	+9
May 8 PO	at LAL	35%	108–114	L 101–104	✓correct	+3
May 6 PO	at LAL	35%	110–116	L 97–127	✓correct	−24
May 4 PO	vs LAL	68%	116–109	W 127–100	✓correct	+20
May 2 PO	vs LAL	74%	120–110	L 112–117	✗missed	−15
Apr 30 PO	at SAC	47%	110–111	W 120–100	✗missed	+21
Apr 28 PO	vs SAC	72%	118–109	L 99–118	✗missed	−28
Apr 26 PO	at SAC	47%	114–115	W 123–116	✗missed	+8
Apr 23 PO	vs SAC	70%	116–108	W 126–125	✓correct	−7
Apr 20 PO	vs SAC	72%	117–108	W 114–97	✓correct	+8
Apr 17 PO	at SAC	37%	111–116	L 106–114	✓correct	−3
Apr 15 PO	at SAC	30%	113–121	L 123–126	✓correct	+5
Apr 9	at POR	72%	127–118	W 157–101	✓correct	+47
Apr 7	at SAC	42%	115–118	W 119–97	✗missed	+25
Apr 4	vs OKC	60%	120–116	W 136–125	✓correct	+7
Apr 2	at DEN	37%	112–117	L 110–112	✓correct	+3
Mar 31	vs SAS	87%	123–105	W 130–115	✓correct	−3
Mar 28	vs NOP	60%	118–114	W 120–109	✓correct	+7
Mar 26	vs MIN	60%	122–118	L 96–99	✗missed	−7
Mar 24	vs PHI	40%	116–120	W 120–112	✗missed	+12
Mar 22	at DAL	47%	117–118	W 127–125	✗missed	+3
Mar 20	at HOU	68%	120–113	W 121–108	✓correct	+6
Mar 18	at MEM	45%	113–115	L 119–133	✓correct	−12
Mar 17	at ATL	47%	119–120	L 119–127	✓correct	−7
Mar 15	at LAC	45%	115–117	L 126–134	✓correct	−6
Mar 13	vs PHX	60%	117–113	W 123–112	✓correct	+7
Mar 11	vs MIL	55%	114–112	W 125–116	✓correct	+7
Mar 9	at MEM	40%	112–116	L 110–131	✓correct	−17
Mar 7	at OKC	42%	113–116	L 128–137	✓correct	−6
Mar 5	at LAL	55%	113–111	L 105–113	✗missed	−10
Mar 3	vs NOP	60%	116–112	W 108–99	✓correct	+5
Mar 2	vs LAC	58%	119–116	W 115–91	✓correct	+21
Feb 28	vs POR	63%	121–116	W 123–105	✓correct	+13
Feb 26	vs MIN	53%	118–117	W 109–104	✓correct	+4
Feb 24	vs HOU	78%	122–110	W 116–101	✓correct	+3
Feb 23	at LAL	55%	122–120	L 111–124	✗missed	−15
Feb 14	at LAC	26%	115–125	L 124–134	✓correct	±0
Feb 13	vs WAS	68%	122–115	W 135–126	✓correct	+2
Feb 11	vs LAL	65%	119–113	L 103–109	✗missed	−12
Feb 8	at POR	55%	121–119	L 122–125	✗missed	−5
Feb 6	vs OKC	63%	118–113	W 141–114	✓correct	+22
Feb 4	vs DAL	65%	119–113	W 119–113	✓correct	±0
Feb 2	at DEN	30%	110–118	L 117–134	✓correct	−9
Feb 1	at MIN	60%	118–114	L 114–119	✗missed	−9
Jan 30	at OKC	42%	115–118	W 128–120	✗missed	+11
Jan 27	vs TOR	63%	121–116	W 129–117	✓correct	+7
Jan 25	vs MEM	37%	113–118	W 122–120	✗missed	+7
Jan 22	vs BKN	53%	113–112	L 116–120	✗missed	−5
Jan 20	at CLE	30%	111–119	W 120–114	✗missed	+14
Jan 19	at BOS	40%	115–119	L 118–121	✓correct	+1
Jan 16	at WAS	47%	113–114	W 127–118	✗missed	+10
Jan 15	at CHI	55%	116–114	L 118–132	✗missed	−16
Jan 13	at SAS	60%	120–116	W 144–113	✓correct	+27
Jan 10	vs PHX	53%	113–112	L 113–125	✗missed	−13
Jan 7	vs ORL	60%	116–112	L 101–115	✗missed	−18
Jan 4	vs DET	70%	118–110	L 119–122	✗missed	−11
Jan 2	vs ATL	40%	116–120	W 143–141	✗missed	+6
Dec 30	vs POR	60%	118–114	W 118–112	✓correct	+2
Dec 28	vs UTA	42%	115–118	W 112–107	✗missed	+8
Dec 27	vs CHA	65%	118–112	W 110–105	✓correct	−1
Dec 25	vs MEM	37%	108–113	W 123–109	✗missed	+19
Dec 21	at BKN	32%	115–122	L 113–143	✓correct	−23
Dec 20	at NYK	30%	108–116	L 94–132	✓correct	−30
Dec 18	at TOR	47%	113–114	W 126–110	✗missed	+17
Dec 16	at PHI	35%	111–117	L 106–118	✓correct	−6
Dec 14	at IND	65%	119–113	L 119–125	✗missed	−12
Dec 13	at MIL	35%	110–116	L 111–128	✓correct	−11
Dec 10	vs BOS	53%	116–115	W 123–107	✓correct	+15
Dec 7	at UTA	37%	116–121	L 123–124	✓correct	+4
Dec 5	vs IND	60%	115–111	L 104–112	✗missed	−12
Dec 3	vs HOU	74%	119–109	W 120–101	✓correct	+9
Dec 2	vs CHI	58%	115–112	W 119–111	✓correct	+5
Nov 29	at DAL	60%	114–110	L 113–116	✗missed	−7
Nov 27	at MIN	53%	113–112	W 137–114	✓correct	+22
Nov 25	vs UTA	53%	115–114	W 129–118	✓correct	+10
Nov 23	vs LAC	60%	114–110	W 124–107	✓correct	+13
Nov 21	at NOP	40%	113–117	L 83–128	✓correct	−41
Nov 20	at HOU	70%	119–111	W 127–120	✓correct	−1
Nov 18	vs NYK	65%	117–111	W 111–101	✓correct	+4
Nov 16	at PHX	42%	109–112	L 119–130	✓correct	−8
Nov 14	vs SAS	60%	113–109	W 132–95	✓correct	+33
Nov 13	at SAC	63%	119–114	L 115–122	✗missed	−12
Nov 11	vs CLE	53%	114–113	W 106–101	✓correct	+4
Nov 7	vs SAC	58%	114–111	W 116–113	✓correct	±0
Nov 4	at NOP	37%	113–118	L 105–114	✓correct	−4
Nov 3	at ORL	72%	117–108	L 129–130	✗missed	−10
Nov 1	at MIA	58%	111–108	L 109–116	✗missed	−10
Oct 30	at DET	70%	119–111	L 114–128	✗missed	−22
Oct 29	at CHA	45%	113–115	L 113–120	✓correct	−5
Oct 27	vs MIA	55%	109–107	W 123–110	✓correct	+11
Oct 25	at PHX	55%	107–105	L 105–134	✗missed	−31
Oct 23	vs SAC	72%	115–106	W 130–125	✓correct	−4
Oct 21	vs DEN	63%	114–109	L 123–128	✗missed	−10
Oct 18	vs LAL	65%	116–110	W 123–109	✓correct	+8

2022-23 to 2026-27

11.1 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.4 to 11.9; 17th smallest of 30

+0.3

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -0.9 to 1.4

14.3 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

62%

winner picked

363 games involving GSW

193 / 193.2

actual / expected wins

gap −0.2

0.227

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 363 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	GSW win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 7	vs ORL	80%	119–107	W 126–119	✓correct	−5
Nov 5	vs MIA	52%	119–118	W 120–100	✓correct	+19
Nov 2	vs PHX	53%	114–113	W 116–113	✓correct	+2
Nov 1	vs LAC	47%	112–113	W 124–112	✗missed	+13
Oct 30	vs LAL	44%	114–116	W 112–95	✗missed	+19
Oct 28	at MIN	31%	111–118	W 119–114	✗missed	+12
Oct 26	at DEN	24%	109–119	W 134–114	✗missed	+30
Oct 24	at PHX	31%	109–116	L 122–131	✓correct	−2
Oct 23	vs MEM	62%	121–117	L 108–111	✗missed	−7
Oct 21	at LAL	33%	110–116	L 105–127	✓correct	−16
Apr 12	at LAC	29%	109–117	L 110–115	✓correct	+3
Apr 10	at SAC	58%	117–114	L 118–124	✗missed	−9
Apr 9	vs LAL	47%	116–117	L 103–119	✓correct	−15
Apr 7	vs SAC	64%	116–111	W 110–105	✓correct	±0
Apr 5	vs HOU	42%	113–116	L 116–117	✓correct	+2
Apr 2	vs CLE	39%	116–120	L 111–118	✓correct	−3
Apr 1	vs SAS	17%	110–124	L 113–127	✓correct	±0
Mar 29	at DEN	36%	119–124	L 93–116	✓correct	−18
Mar 27	vs WAS	76%	123–113	W 131–126	✓correct	−5
Mar 25	vs BKN	80%	119–107	W 109–106	✓correct	−9
Mar 23	at DAL	58%	118–115	W 137–131	✓correct	+3
Mar 21	at ATL	24%	111–121	L 110–126	✓correct	−6
Mar 20	at DET	26%	107–116	L 101–115	✓correct	−5
Mar 18	at BOS	24%	107–117	L 99–120	✓correct	−11
Mar 16	at WAS	64%	118–113	W 125–117	✓correct	+3
Mar 15	at NYK	19%	107–120	L 107–110	✓correct	+10
Mar 13	vs MIN	53%	115–114	L 117–127	✗missed	−11
Mar 10	vs CHI	59%	118–115	L 124–130	✗missed	−9
Mar 9	at UTA	69%	117–110	L 116–119	✗missed	−10
Mar 7	at OKC	26%	107–116	L 97–104	✓correct	+2
Mar 5	at HOU	34%	108–114	W 115–113	✗missed	+8
Mar 2	vs LAC	53%	113–112	L 101–114	✗missed	−14
Feb 28	vs LAL	56%	116–114	L 101–129	✗missed	−30
Feb 25	at MEM	53%	120–119	W 133–112	✓correct	+20
Feb 24	at NOP	58%	115–112	L 109–113	✗missed	−7
Feb 22	vs DEN	47%	113–114	W 128–117	✗missed	+12
Feb 19	vs BOS	34%	105–111	L 110–121	✓correct	−5
Feb 11	vs SAS	47%	114–115	L 113–126	✓correct	−12
Feb 9	vs MEM	69%	121–114	W 114–113	✓correct	−6
Feb 7	at LAL	39%	113–117	L 99–105	✓correct	−2
Feb 5	at PHX	34%	114–120	W 101–97	✗missed	+10
Feb 3	vs PHI	76%	122–112	L 94–113	✗missed	−29
Jan 30	vs DET	53%	115–114	L 124–131	✗missed	−8
Jan 28	at UTA	76%	125–115	W 140–124	✓correct	+6
Jan 26	at MIN	36%	115–120	L 83–108	✓correct	−20
Jan 25	at MIN	34%	116–122	W 111–85	✗missed	+32
Jan 22	at DAL	53%	117–116	L 115–123	✗missed	−9
Jan 20	vs TOR	61%	115–111	L 127–145	✗missed	−22
Jan 19	vs MIA	61%	122–118	W 135–112	✓correct	+19
Jan 17	vs CHA	53%	116–115	W 136–116	✓correct	+19
Jan 15	vs NYK	64%	117–112	W 126–113	✓correct	+8
Jan 13	vs POR	61%	118–114	W 119–97	✓correct	+18
Jan 11	vs ATL	56%	119–117	L 111–124	✗missed	−15
Jan 9	vs SAC	80%	120–108	W 137–103	✓correct	+22
Jan 7	vs MIL	64%	116–111	W 120–113	✓correct	+2
Jan 5	at LAC	53%	114–113	L 102–103	✗missed	−2
Jan 3	vs UTA	74%	126–117	W 123–114	✓correct	±0
Jan 2	vs OKC	42%	116–119	L 94–131	✓correct	−34
Dec 31	at CHA	61%	118–114	W 132–125	✓correct	+3
Dec 29	at BKN	53%	112–111	W 120–107	✓correct	+12
Dec 28	at TOR	61%	114–110	L 127–141	✗missed	−18
Dec 25	vs DAL	67%	119–113	W 126–116	✓correct	+4
Dec 22	vs ORL	67%	118–112	W 120–97	✓correct	+17
Dec 20	vs PHX	64%	114–109	W 119–116	✓correct	−2
Dec 18	at PHX	53%	115–114	L 98–99	✗missed	−2
Dec 14	at POR	66%	119–113	L 131–136	✗missed	−11
Dec 12	vs MIN	56%	113–111	L 120–127	✗missed	−9
Dec 7	at CHI	66%	117–111	W 123–91	✓correct	+26
Dec 6	at CLE	34%	114–120	W 99–94	✗missed	+11
Dec 4	at PHI	53%	116–115	L 98–99	✗missed	−2
Dec 2	vs OKC	47%	112–113	L 112–124	✓correct	−11
Nov 29	vs NOP	80%	121–109	W 104–96	✓correct	−4
Nov 26	vs HOU	53%	116–115	L 100–104	✗missed	−5
Nov 24	vs UTA	76%	122–112	W 134–117	✓correct	+7
Nov 21	vs POR	74%	123–114	L 123–127	✗missed	−13
Nov 19	at MIA	44%	118–120	L 96–110	✓correct	−12
Nov 18	at ORL	44%	114–116	L 113–121	✓correct	−6
Nov 16	at NOP	69%	117–110	W 124–106	✓correct	+11
Nov 14	at SAS	47%	117–118	W 109–108	✗missed	+2
Nov 12	at SAS	41%	114–117	W 125–120	✗missed	+8
Nov 11	at OKC	19%	110–123	L 102–126	✓correct	−11
Nov 9	vs IND	78%	121–110	W 114–83	✓correct	+20
Nov 7	at DEN	34%	113–119	L 104–129	✓correct	−19
Nov 5	at SAC	58%	115–112	L 116–121	✗missed	−8
Nov 4	vs PHX	69%	121–114	W 118–107	✓correct	+4
Nov 1	at IND	56%	112–110	L 109–114	✗missed	−7
Oct 30	at MIL	41%	113–116	L 110–120	✓correct	−7
Oct 28	vs LAC	53%	111–110	W 98–79	✓correct	+18
Oct 27	vs MEM	64%	119–114	W 131–118	✓correct	+8
Oct 24	at POR	44%	110–112	L 119–139	✓correct	−18
Oct 23	vs DEN	59%	112–109	W 137–131	✓correct	+3
Oct 21	at LAL	47%	110–111	W 119–109	✗missed	+11
May 14 PO	at MIN	31%	101–108	L 110–121	✓correct	−4
May 12 PO	vs MIN	57%	100–98	L 110–117	✗missed	−9
May 10 PO	vs MIN	62%	101–97	L 97–102	✗missed	−9
May 8 PO	at MIN	23%	94–105	L 93–117	✓correct	−13
May 6 PO	at MIN	31%	99–106	W 99–88	✗missed	+18
May 4 PO	at HOU	51%	103–102	W 103–89	✓correct	+13
May 2 PO	vs HOU	59%	104–101	L 107–115	✗missed	−11
Apr 30 PO	at HOU	41%	101–104	L 116–131	✓correct	−12
Apr 28 PO	vs HOU	67%	106–100	W 109–106	✓correct	−3
Apr 26 PO	vs HOU	62%	109–105	W 104–93	✓correct	+7
Apr 23 PO	at HOU	43%	107–109	L 94–109	✓correct	−13
Apr 20 PO	at HOU	38%	110–114	W 95–85	✗missed	+14
Apr 13	vs LAC	49%	110–111	L 119–124	✓correct	−4
Apr 11	at POR	61%	118–113	W 103–86	✓correct	+12
Apr 9	vs SAS	82%	123–109	L 111–114	✗missed	−17
Apr 8	at PHX	64%	117–111	W 133–95	✓correct	+32
Apr 6	vs HOU	59%	115–112	L 96–106	✗missed	−13
Apr 4	vs DEN	59%	116–113	W 118–104	✓correct	+11
Apr 3	at LAL	51%	116–115	W 123–116	✓correct	+6
Apr 1	at MEM	46%	114–115	W 134–125	✗missed	+10
Mar 30	at SAS	51%	116–115	W 148–106	✓correct	+41
Mar 28	at NOP	77%	120–108	W 111–95	✓correct	+4
Mar 25	at MIA	64%	114–108	L 86–112	✗missed	−32
Mar 22	at ATL	46%	118–119	L 115–124	✓correct	−8
Mar 20	vs TOR	77%	120–109	W 117–114	✓correct	−8
Mar 18	vs MIL	57%	117–115	W 104–93	✓correct	+9
Mar 17	vs DEN	67%	119–113	L 105–114	✗missed	−15
Mar 15	vs NYK	64%	114–109	W 97–94	✓correct	−2
Mar 13	vs SAC	54%	114–113	W 130–104	✓correct	+25
Mar 10	vs POR	69%	120–113	W 130–120	✓correct	+3
Mar 8	vs DET	62%	118–114	W 115–110	✓correct	+1
Mar 6	at BKN	66%	114–107	W 121–119	✓correct	−5
Mar 4	at NYK	41%	115–118	W 114–102	✗missed	+15
Mar 3	at CHA	69%	118–110	W 119–101	✓correct	+10
Mar 1	at PHI	71%	118–109	L 119–126	✗missed	−16
Feb 27	at ORL	56%	113–110	W 121–115	✓correct	+3
Feb 25	vs CHA	81%	119–106	W 128–92	✓correct	+23
Feb 23	vs DAL	62%	118–114	W 126–102	✓correct	+20
Feb 21	at SAC	36%	113–118	W 132–108	✗missed	+29
Feb 13	at HOU	46%	112–113	W 105–98	✗missed	+8
Feb 12	at DAL	51%	120–119	L 107–111	✗missed	−5
Feb 10	at MIL	54%	120–118	W 125–111	✓correct	+12
Feb 8	at CHI	51%	118–117	W 132–111	✓correct	+20
Feb 6	at LAL	31%	109–116	L 112–120	✓correct	−1
Feb 5	at UTA	61%	117–112	L 128–131	✗missed	−8
Feb 3	vs ORL	64%	113–108	W 104–99	✓correct	±0
Jan 31	vs PHX	57%	114–112	L 105–130	✗missed	−27
Jan 29	vs OKC	29%	108–117	W 116–109	✗missed	+16
Jan 28	vs UTA	77%	116–105	W 114–103	✓correct	±0
Jan 25	vs LAL	44%	110–113	L 108–118	✓correct	−7
Jan 23	vs CHI	57%	116–114	W 131–106	✓correct	+23
Jan 22	at SAC	31%	110–117	L 117–123	✓correct	+1
Jan 20	vs BOS	34%	103–110	L 85–125	✓correct	−33
Jan 18	vs WAS	64%	115–110	W 122–114	✓correct	+3
Jan 15	at MIN	31%	104–111	W 116–115	✗missed	+8
Jan 13	at TOR	54%	115–113	L 101–104	✗missed	−5
Jan 10	at IND	29%	109–117	L 96–108	✓correct	−4
Jan 9	at DET	43%	112–114	W 107–104	✗missed	+5
Jan 7	vs MIA	54%	112–111	L 98–114	✗missed	−17
Jan 5	vs SAC	59%	117–114	L 99–129	✗missed	−33
Jan 4	vs MEM	49%	116–117	W 121–113	✗missed	+9
Jan 2	vs PHI	59%	112–109	W 139–105	✓correct	+31
Dec 30	vs CLE	34%	107–114	L 95–113	✓correct	−11
Dec 28	vs PHX	64%	113–108	W 109–105	✓correct	−1
Dec 27	at LAC	31%	107–114	L 92–102	✓correct	−3
Dec 25	vs LAL	59%	113–110	L 113–115	✗missed	−5
Dec 23	vs IND	64%	117–112	L 105–111	✗missed	−11
Dec 21	at MIN	41%	108–111	W 113–103	✗missed	+13
Dec 19	at MEM	38%	115–119	L 93–144	✓correct	−47
Dec 15	vs DAL	59%	115–112	L 133–143	✗missed	−13
Dec 11	at HOU	27%	107–116	L 90–91	✓correct	+8
Dec 8	vs MIN	64%	110–105	W 114–106	✓correct	+3
Dec 6	vs MIN	69%	113–106	L 90–107	✗missed	−24
Dec 5	vs HOU	49%	113–114	W 99–93	✗missed	+7
Dec 3	at DEN	29%	112–120	L 115–119	✓correct	+4
Nov 30	at PHX	46%	116–117	L 105–113	✓correct	−7
Nov 27	vs OKC	54%	113–112	L 101–105	✗missed	−5
Nov 25	vs BKN	79%	118–106	L 120–128	✗missed	−20
Nov 23	at SAS	56%	118–115	L 94–104	✗missed	−13
Nov 22	at NOP	69%	115–107	W 112–108	✓correct	−4
Nov 20	vs ATL	73%	122–113	W 120–97	✓correct	+14
Nov 18	at LAC	54%	115–113	L 99–102	✗missed	−5
Nov 15	vs MEM	75%	121–111	W 123–118	✓correct	−5
Nov 12	vs DAL	71%	119–111	W 120–117	✓correct	−5
Nov 10	at OKC	25%	110–120	W 127–116	✗missed	+21
Nov 8	at CLE	36%	112–117	L 117–136	✓correct	−14
Nov 6	at BOS	38%	111–115	W 118–112	✗missed	+10
Nov 4	at WAS	73%	121–111	W 125–112	✓correct	+3
Nov 2	at HOU	43%	111–113	W 127–121	✗missed	+8
Oct 30	vs NOP	73%	117–108	W 104–89	✓correct	+6
Oct 29	vs NOP	64%	116–111	W 124–106	✓correct	+13
Oct 27	vs LAC	71%	116–108	L 104–112	✗missed	−16
Oct 25	at UTA	66%	118–111	W 127–86	✓correct	+34
Oct 23	at POR	64%	114–108	W 140–104	✓correct	+30
Apr 14	vs UTA	76%	115–103	W 123–116	✓correct	−5
Apr 12	vs NOP	57%	111–110	L 109–114	✗missed	−6
Apr 11	at POR	53%	113–109	W 100–92	✓correct	+4
Apr 9	at LAL	35%	112–117	W 134–120	✗missed	+19
Apr 7	vs UTA	76%	119–107	W 118–110	✓correct	−4
Apr 5	at DAL	39%	109–112	L 106–108	✓correct	+1
Apr 4	at HOU	43%	114–115	W 133–110	✗missed	+24
Apr 2	vs DAL	63%	113–109	W 104–100	✓correct	±0
Mar 31	at SAS	61%	115–107	W 117–113	✓correct	−4
Mar 29	at CHA	57%	113–107	W 115–97	✓correct	+12
Mar 27	at ORL	30%	107–115	W 101–93	✗missed	+16
Mar 26	at MIA	43%	109–110	W 113–92	✗missed	+22
Mar 24	at MIN	41%	111–113	L 110–114	✓correct	−2
Mar 22	vs IND	63%	118–114	L 111–123	✗missed	−16
Mar 20	vs MEM	76%	115–103	W 137–116	✓correct	+9
Mar 18	vs NYK	53%	104–105	L 112–119	✓correct	−6
Mar 16	at LAL	43%	115–116	W 128–121	✗missed	+8
Mar 13	at DAL	39%	117–120	L 99–109	✓correct	−7
Mar 11	at SAS	55%	120–115	W 112–102	✓correct	+5
Mar 9	vs SAS	68%	118–111	L 113–126	✗missed	−20
Mar 7	vs CHI	65%	116–111	L 122–125	✗missed	−8
Mar 6	vs MIL	59%	110–108	W 125–90	✓correct	+33
Mar 3	at BOS	30%	110–118	L 88–140	✓correct	−44
Mar 1	at TOR	49%	121–119	W 120–105	✓correct	+13
Feb 29	at NYK	39%	112–115	W 110–99	✗missed	+14
Feb 27	at WAS	65%	121–111	W 123–112	✓correct	+1
Feb 25	vs DEN	63%	117–113	L 103–119	✗missed	−20
Feb 23	vs CHA	82%	125–109	W 97–84	✓correct	−3
Feb 22	vs LAL	65%	121–116	W 128–110	✓correct	+13
Feb 15	at UTA	47%	122–121	W 140–137	✓correct	+2
Feb 14	vs LAC	63%	118–114	L 125–130	✗missed	−9
Feb 12	at UTA	43%	120–121	W 129–107	✗missed	+23
Feb 10	vs PHX	59%	116–114	W 113–112	✓correct	−1
Feb 8	at IND	35%	116–121	W 131–109	✗missed	+27
Feb 7	at PHI	43%	117–118	W 127–104	✗missed	+24
Feb 5	at BKN	41%	113–115	W 109–98	✗missed	+13
Feb 3	at ATL	41%	116–118	L 134–141	✓correct	−5
Feb 2	at MEM	53%	111–107	W 121–101	✓correct	+16
Jan 30	vs PHI	49%	118–121	W 119–107	✗missed	+15
Jan 27	vs LAL	51%	120–122	L 144–145	✓correct	+1
Jan 25	vs SAC	47%	118–122	L 133–134	✓correct	+3
Jan 24	vs ATL	65%	123–118	W 134–112	✓correct	+17
Jan 15	at MEM	57%	116–110	L 107–116	✗missed	−15
Jan 13	at MIL	30%	114–122	L 118–129	✓correct	−3
Jan 12	at CHI	43%	112–113	W 140–131	✗missed	+10
Jan 10	vs NOP	49%	114–117	L 105–141	✓correct	−33
Jan 7	vs TOR	57%	118–117	L 118–133	✗missed	−16
Jan 5	vs DET	79%	127–113	W 113–109	✓correct	−10
Jan 4	vs DEN	51%	116–118	L 127–130	✓correct	−1
Jan 2	vs ORL	57%	118–117	W 121–115	✓correct	+5
Dec 30	vs DAL	63%	119–115	L 122–132	✗missed	−14
Dec 28	vs MIA	63%	118–114	L 102–114	✗missed	−16
Dec 25	at DEN	37%	112–116	L 114–120	✓correct	−2
Dec 23	vs POR	73%	121–111	W 126–106	✓correct	+10
Dec 22	vs WAS	70%	122–114	W 129–118	✓correct	+3
Dec 19	vs BOS	53%	116–117	W 132–126	✗missed	+7
Dec 17	at POR	47%	116–115	W 118–114	✓correct	+3
Dec 16	vs BKN	61%	117–114	W 124–120	✓correct	+1
Dec 14	at LAC	34%	112–118	L 113–121	✓correct	−2
Dec 12	at PHX	51%	117–114	L 116–119	✗missed	−6
Dec 8	at OKC	32%	111–118	L 136–138	✓correct	+5
Dec 6	vs POR	73%	119–109	W 110–106	✓correct	−6
Dec 2	at LAC	34%	109–115	L 112–113	✓correct	+5
Nov 30	vs LAC	57%	115–114	W 120–114	✓correct	+5
Nov 28	at SAC	39%	115–118	L 123–124	✓correct	+2
Nov 24	vs SAS	73%	119–109	W 118–112	✓correct	−4
Nov 22	at PHX	43%	115–116	L 115–123	✓correct	−7
Nov 20	vs HOU	63%	116–112	W 121–116	✓correct	+1
Nov 18	vs OKC	59%	115–113	L 123–130	✗missed	−9
Nov 16	vs OKC	65%	116–111	L 109–128	✗missed	−24
Nov 14	vs MIN	53%	109–110	L 101–104	✓correct	−2
Nov 12	vs MIN	53%	108–109	L 110–116	✓correct	−5
Nov 11	vs CLE	65%	115–110	L 110–118	✗missed	−13
Nov 8	at DEN	43%	112–113	L 105–108	✓correct	−2
Nov 6	at DET	53%	116–112	W 120–109	✓correct	+7
Nov 5	at CLE	41%	109–111	L 104–115	✓correct	−9
Nov 3	at OKC	39%	114–117	W 141–139	✗missed	+5
Nov 1	vs SAC	73%	119–109	W 102–101	✓correct	−9
Oct 30	at NOP	35%	110–115	W 130–102	✗missed	+33
Oct 29	at HOU	51%	116–113	W 106–95	✓correct	+8
Oct 27	at SAC	41%	114–116	W 122–114	✗missed	+10
Oct 24	vs PHX	63%	116–112	L 104–108	✗missed	−8
May 12 PO	at LAL	35%	109–115	L 101–122	✓correct	−15
May 10 PO	vs LAL	65%	115–109	W 121–106	✓correct	+9
May 8 PO	at LAL	35%	108–114	L 101–104	✓correct	+3
May 6 PO	at LAL	35%	110–116	L 97–127	✓correct	−24
May 4 PO	vs LAL	68%	116–109	W 127–100	✓correct	+20
May 2 PO	vs LAL	74%	120–110	L 112–117	✗missed	−15
Apr 30 PO	at SAC	47%	110–111	W 120–100	✗missed	+21
Apr 28 PO	vs SAC	72%	118–109	L 99–118	✗missed	−28
Apr 26 PO	at SAC	47%	114–115	W 123–116	✗missed	+8
Apr 23 PO	vs SAC	70%	116–108	W 126–125	✓correct	−7
Apr 20 PO	vs SAC	72%	117–108	W 114–97	✓correct	+8
Apr 17 PO	at SAC	37%	111–116	L 106–114	✓correct	−3
Apr 15 PO	at SAC	30%	113–121	L 123–126	✓correct	+5
Apr 9	at POR	72%	127–118	W 157–101	✓correct	+47
Apr 7	at SAC	42%	115–118	W 119–97	✗missed	+25
Apr 4	vs OKC	60%	120–116	W 136–125	✓correct	+7
Apr 2	at DEN	37%	112–117	L 110–112	✓correct	+3
Mar 31	vs SAS	87%	123–105	W 130–115	✓correct	−3
Mar 28	vs NOP	60%	118–114	W 120–109	✓correct	+7
Mar 26	vs MIN	60%	122–118	L 96–99	✗missed	−7
Mar 24	vs PHI	40%	116–120	W 120–112	✗missed	+12
Mar 22	at DAL	47%	117–118	W 127–125	✗missed	+3
Mar 20	at HOU	68%	120–113	W 121–108	✓correct	+6
Mar 18	at MEM	45%	113–115	L 119–133	✓correct	−12
Mar 17	at ATL	47%	119–120	L 119–127	✓correct	−7
Mar 15	at LAC	45%	115–117	L 126–134	✓correct	−6
Mar 13	vs PHX	60%	117–113	W 123–112	✓correct	+7
Mar 11	vs MIL	55%	114–112	W 125–116	✓correct	+7
Mar 9	at MEM	40%	112–116	L 110–131	✓correct	−17
Mar 7	at OKC	42%	113–116	L 128–137	✓correct	−6
Mar 5	at LAL	55%	113–111	L 105–113	✗missed	−10
Mar 3	vs NOP	60%	116–112	W 108–99	✓correct	+5
Mar 2	vs LAC	58%	119–116	W 115–91	✓correct	+21
Feb 28	vs POR	63%	121–116	W 123–105	✓correct	+13
Feb 26	vs MIN	53%	118–117	W 109–104	✓correct	+4
Feb 24	vs HOU	78%	122–110	W 116–101	✓correct	+3
Feb 23	at LAL	55%	122–120	L 111–124	✗missed	−15
Feb 14	at LAC	26%	115–125	L 124–134	✓correct	±0
Feb 13	vs WAS	68%	122–115	W 135–126	✓correct	+2
Feb 11	vs LAL	65%	119–113	L 103–109	✗missed	−12
Feb 8	at POR	55%	121–119	L 122–125	✗missed	−5
Feb 6	vs OKC	63%	118–113	W 141–114	✓correct	+22
Feb 4	vs DAL	65%	119–113	W 119–113	✓correct	±0
Feb 2	at DEN	30%	110–118	L 117–134	✓correct	−9
Feb 1	at MIN	60%	118–114	L 114–119	✗missed	−9
Jan 30	at OKC	42%	115–118	W 128–120	✗missed	+11
Jan 27	vs TOR	63%	121–116	W 129–117	✓correct	+7
Jan 25	vs MEM	37%	113–118	W 122–120	✗missed	+7
Jan 22	vs BKN	53%	113–112	L 116–120	✗missed	−5
Jan 20	at CLE	30%	111–119	W 120–114	✗missed	+14
Jan 19	at BOS	40%	115–119	L 118–121	✓correct	+1
Jan 16	at WAS	47%	113–114	W 127–118	✗missed	+10
Jan 15	at CHI	55%	116–114	L 118–132	✗missed	−16
Jan 13	at SAS	60%	120–116	W 144–113	✓correct	+27
Jan 10	vs PHX	53%	113–112	L 113–125	✗missed	−13
Jan 7	vs ORL	60%	116–112	L 101–115	✗missed	−18
Jan 4	vs DET	70%	118–110	L 119–122	✗missed	−11
Jan 2	vs ATL	40%	116–120	W 143–141	✗missed	+6
Dec 30	vs POR	60%	118–114	W 118–112	✓correct	+2
Dec 28	vs UTA	42%	115–118	W 112–107	✗missed	+8
Dec 27	vs CHA	65%	118–112	W 110–105	✓correct	−1
Dec 25	vs MEM	37%	108–113	W 123–109	✗missed	+19
Dec 21	at BKN	32%	115–122	L 113–143	✓correct	−23
Dec 20	at NYK	30%	108–116	L 94–132	✓correct	−30
Dec 18	at TOR	47%	113–114	W 126–110	✗missed	+17
Dec 16	at PHI	35%	111–117	L 106–118	✓correct	−6
Dec 14	at IND	65%	119–113	L 119–125	✗missed	−12
Dec 13	at MIL	35%	110–116	L 111–128	✓correct	−11
Dec 10	vs BOS	53%	116–115	W 123–107	✓correct	+15
Dec 7	at UTA	37%	116–121	L 123–124	✓correct	+4
Dec 5	vs IND	60%	115–111	L 104–112	✗missed	−12
Dec 3	vs HOU	74%	119–109	W 120–101	✓correct	+9
Dec 2	vs CHI	58%	115–112	W 119–111	✓correct	+5
Nov 29	at DAL	60%	114–110	L 113–116	✗missed	−7
Nov 27	at MIN	53%	113–112	W 137–114	✓correct	+22
Nov 25	vs UTA	53%	115–114	W 129–118	✓correct	+10
Nov 23	vs LAC	60%	114–110	W 124–107	✓correct	+13
Nov 21	at NOP	40%	113–117	L 83–128	✓correct	−41
Nov 20	at HOU	70%	119–111	W 127–120	✓correct	−1
Nov 18	vs NYK	65%	117–111	W 111–101	✓correct	+4
Nov 16	at PHX	42%	109–112	L 119–130	✓correct	−8
Nov 14	vs SAS	60%	113–109	W 132–95	✓correct	+33
Nov 13	at SAC	63%	119–114	L 115–122	✗missed	−12
Nov 11	vs CLE	53%	114–113	W 106–101	✓correct	+4
Nov 7	vs SAC	58%	114–111	W 116–113	✓correct	±0
Nov 4	at NOP	37%	113–118	L 105–114	✓correct	−4
Nov 3	at ORL	72%	117–108	L 129–130	✗missed	−10
Nov 1	at MIA	58%	111–108	L 109–116	✗missed	−10
Oct 30	at DET	70%	119–111	L 114–128	✗missed	−22
Oct 29	at CHA	45%	113–115	L 113–120	✓correct	−5
Oct 27	vs MIA	55%	109–107	W 123–110	✓correct	+11
Oct 25	at PHX	55%	107–105	L 105–134	✗missed	−31
Oct 23	vs SAC	72%	115–106	W 130–125	✓correct	−4
Oct 21	vs DEN	63%	114–109	L 123–128	✗missed	−10
Oct 18	vs LAL	65%	116–110	W 123–109	✓correct	+8

Surprise games

All GSW surprises

Across every graded season. The percentage is the pregame chance the forecast gave the team that won.

Most unexpected GSW wins

24%GSW beat DEN134–114Oct 26, 2026-27 · forecast DEN119–109 · missed margin by 30
25%GSW beat OKC127–116Nov 10, 2024-25 · forecast OKC120–110 · missed margin by 21
29%GSW beat OKC116–109Jan 29, 2024-25 · forecast OKC117–108 · missed margin by 16
30%GSW beat ORL101–93Mar 27, 2023-24 · forecast ORL115–107 · missed margin by 16
30%GSW beat CLE120–114Jan 20, 2022-23 · forecast CLE119–111 · missed margin by 14

Most unexpected GSW losses

18%SAS beat GSW114–111Apr 9, 2024-25 · forecast GSW123–109 · missed margin by 17
21%BKN beat GSW128–120Nov 25, 2024-25 · forecast GSW118–106 · missed margin by 20
24%PHI beat GSW113–94Feb 3, 2025-26 · forecast GSW122–112 · missed margin by 29
26%LAL beat GSW117–112May 2, 2022-23 · playoffs · forecast GSW120–110 · missed margin by 15
26%POR beat GSW127–123Nov 21, 2025-26 · forecast GSW123–114 · missed margin by 13

Largest margin misses

62%MEM beat GSW144–93Dec 19, 2024-25 · forecast MEM119–115 · missed margin by 47
72%GSW beat POR157–101Apr 9, 2022-23 · forecast GSW127–118 · missed margin by 47
70%BOS beat GSW140–88Mar 3, 2023-24 · forecast BOS118–110 · missed margin by 44
51%GSW beat SAS148–106Mar 30, 2024-25 · forecast GSW116–115 · missed margin by 41
60%NOP beat GSW128–83Nov 21, 2022-23 · forecast NOP117–113 · missed margin by 41

Definitions

Expected wins: The sum of the team's pregame win probabilities over the games in the sample (home: the stored home win probability; road: one minus it).
Wins vs expectation: Actual wins minus expected wins. It describes results relative to the forecasts, not why they differed.
Margin error: The team's actual margin minus its forecast margin, in points. Positive means the team did better than forecast.
Error variability: The sample standard deviation of margin errors. Higher means the forecasts for this team's games were less consistent.
Winner picked: The share of the team's games in which the forecast winner won, whichever team that was. Teams play different mixes of close and lopsided games, so this alone is not a fair measure of how hard a team is to forecast.
Average margin miss: The mean absolute margin error. This is the headline measure of how hard a team's games were for this model to forecast.
Average margin error: The mean signed margin error. Consistently positive means the model underrated the team in this sample; negative, overrated.
Brier score: The mean squared difference between the team's pregame win probability and the result (1 for a win, 0 for a loss). It rewards confident correct forecasts and penalises confident wrong ones.
Intervals and samples: Ranges are 90% bootstrap intervals (1,000 resamples of the team's games). Under 20 games no ranking is shown; 20 to 59 games is exploratory; 60 or more is roughly a full season.

More on how forecasts are made and tested: Methodology.

Upcoming

Recent results

Predictability

2026-27 (in progress)

2025-26

2024-25

2023-24

2022-23

2022-23 to 2026-27

Surprise games

Most unexpected GSW wins

Most unexpected GSW losses

Largest margin misses

Recent results the forecast got wrong

Definitions