2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

San Antonio Spurs at Toronto Raptors

Sunday, March 23, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

SAS 1–0@TOR 1–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
SAS San Antonio Spurs	114	123	+9
TOR Toronto Raptors (home)	115	89	−26

Forecast: Toronto Raptors to win, 54% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	SAS	TOR
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1424	1395
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+42
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−1.9	−5.1
Games played this season	71	70
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	124.1	111.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	125.2	110.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	100.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	19.8	49.7
Rest days	2	3
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAS1424TOR1395

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAS1424

Ended last season at 1400 → started this one at 1425
First 61 games: −3.9
Last 10 games: +3.1

WBKN127–113+7.1
L@SAC109–127−6.9
L@MIN124–141−4.2
LDAL129–133−7.0
WDAL126–116+9.8
LCHA134–145−21.3
WNOP119–115+3.9
L@LAL109–125−4.3
WNYK120–105+20.6
WPHI128–120+5.4

TOR1395

Ended last season at 1301 → started this one at 1350
First 60 games: +33.3
Last 10 games: +11.9

W@ORL104–102+6.9
W@ORL114–113+5.5
WUTA118–109+6.0
LWAS117–118−7.5
WWAS119–104+5.8
WPHI118–105+8.2
W@UTA126–118+9.0
L@POR102–105−3.3
L@PHX89–129−17.1
L@GSW114–117−1.6

Season scoring marginSAS−1.9TOR−5.1

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAS−1.9

Scores 114.7, allows 116.6 over 71 games: −1.9 a game.

TOR−5.1

Scores 110.7, allows 115.8 over 70 games: −5.1 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10SAS124.1TOR111.1

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.6).

SAS124.1scored, +10.6 vs league

Factor	SAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	59.6%	54.3%	+8.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.1%	12.1%	+1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	32.9%	25.2%	+3.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.167	0.194	−0.8
Everything else			−1.6

TOR111.1scored, −2.4 vs league

Factor	TOR	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.2%	54.3%	−6.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.9%	12.1%	−1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	34.6%	25.2%	+4.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.227	0.194	+1.0
Everything else			−0.2

Defensive rating, last 10SAS125.2TOR110.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.6).

SAS125.2allowed, +11.6 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	61.1%	54.3%	−10.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.7%	12.1%	−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.8%	25.2%	+0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.181	0.194	+0.3
Everything else			−1.8

TOR110.7allowed, −2.9 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.8%	54.3%	+3.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.5%	12.1%	+0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.8%	25.2%	−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.231	0.194	−1.1
Everything else			+0.3

Pace, last 10average 100.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAS 98.9 and TOR 101.1 → average 100.0 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingSAS19.8TOR49.7

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAS19.8pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
De'Aaron Fox	19.8	32.5	5

Source: official injury report, 2025-03-23 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

TOR49.7pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Immanuel Quickley	20.6	28.9	7
Jakob Poeltl	16.7	23.9	6
A.J. Lawson	12.5	26.0	10

Source: official injury report, 2025-03-23 17:30 ET. 13 rotation players.

RestSAS2 daysTOR3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAS2days

Last played Mar 21 against PHI.

TOR3days

Last played Mar 20 against GSW.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 21	PHI	128–120	47-89	19-39	15-18	14	9	123.1	116.5	103.5
Mar 19	NYK	120–105	45-90	16-35	14-20	13	15	126.3	109.4	95.5
Mar 17	@LAL	109–125	41-88	15-38	12-14	17	9	110.1	123.8	100.0
Mar 15	NOP	119–115	39-84	16-39	25-33	10	8	119.0	115.0	100.0
Mar 14	CHA	134–145	48-95	21-46	17-22	13	17	136.7	146.5	98.5
Mar 12	DAL	126–116	50-94	11-35	15-16	16	13	122.3	114.9	102.0
Mar 10	DAL	129–133	49-94	17-41	14-24	9	12	131.6	135.7	98.0
Mar 9	@MIN	124–141	47-85	11-30	19-24	12	11	125.3	142.4	99.0
Mar 7	@SAC	109–127	40-87	16-42	13-23	7	9	116.0	133.7	94.5
Mar 4	BKN	127–113	52-95	18-39	5-10	13	13	130.9	114.1	98.0

TOR

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 20	@GSW	114–117	44-78	11-26	15-19	23	7	110.7	111.4	104.0
Mar 17	@PHX	89–129	31-87	10-35	17-23	11	12	93.7	134.4	95.5
Mar 16	@POR	102–105	38-94	10-31	16-20	18	19	104.1	106.1	98.5
Mar 14	@UTA	126–118	44-91	12-32	26-35	15	10	110.5	105.4	113.0
Mar 12	PHI	118–105	44-100	16-40	14-18	20	13	113.5	101.0	104.0
Mar 10	WAS	119–104	43-109	16-49	17-29	8	28	120.2	104.0	99.5
Mar 8	WAS	117–118	40-95	10-26	27-30	15	20	114.7	116.8	101.5
Mar 7	UTA	118–109	40-104	14-46	24-28	8	19	114.6	103.8	104.0
Mar 4	@ORL	114–113	38-80	12-30	26-35	20	13	117.5	115.3	97.5
Mar 2	@ORL	104–102	37-80	7-22	23-30	14	12	111.8	108.5	93.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games

46%

pregame chance the forecast gave SAS, the winner

the forecast favored TOR

35 pts

margin miss

forecast +1, actual −34 for TOR

329th

most surprising result of 2024-25

of 1,309 graded games

19th

largest margin miss of 2024-25

outcome surprise 0.78 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	SAS	TOR
Final score	123	89
Field goals	41–86 · 47.7%	35–92 · 38.0%
Three-pointers	14–43 · 32.6%	10–39 · 25.6%
Free throws	27–32 · 84.4%	9–13 · 69.2%
Rebounds	46	46
Assists	27	27
Turnovers	14	21
Steals	15	8
Blocks	6	3

How the model does with these teams over time: San Antonio Spurs · Toronto Raptors

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (TOR)	+1	−34	−35
Total points	229	212	−17
SAS points	114	123	+9
TOR points	115	89	−26

Recent form before this game