Eastern Conference · 2026-27

Indiana Pacers IND

3–7

2026-27 record

1357

Elo rating

with the forecast of Nov 7

108.7

Offensive rating

last 10 games

112.4

Defensive rating

last 10, lower is better

101.4

Pace

possessions per game

Hover the ball to see a season.

Every graded IND game, one dot each, oldest at the center. 234 of 376 forecasts picked the winner (colored dots).

Elo rating, recent games

Pregame Elo stored with each of IND's last 82 forecasts. Dashed: 1500, the long-run average.

Elo rating recorded with each team's most recent forecast. Higher is stronger; 1500 is the long-run average. IND ranks 24 of 30.

Upcoming

Schedule

Nov 9 8:00 PM ET

IND Indiana Pacers 3–7 –

@DAL Dallas Mavericks 6–4 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 11 7:00 PM ET

WAS Washington Wizards 4–6 –

@IND Indiana Pacers 3–7 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 13 7:00 PM ET

NYK New York Knicks 5–4 –

@IND Indiana Pacers 3–7 –

Forecast coming Details

Recent results

Predictability

How closely the forecasts tracked IND games. A team can be hard for this model to forecast whether it is good or bad: misses come from the model's limits, roster changes, missing information and ordinary game-to-game variation. Compare all 30 teams

2026-27 (in progress)

Small sample: 10 games. These figures are a running log, not a measurement, and no ranking is shown.

10.2 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 6.8 to 14.0

−1.2

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -7.5 to 5.1

12.9 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.7

60%

winner picked

10 games involving IND

3 / 4.2

actual / expected wins

gap −1.2

0.232

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 10 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	IND win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 7	vs DEN	30%	112–119	L 102–114	✓correct	−5
Nov 4	at MEM	32%	114–120	W 107–103	✗missed	+10
Nov 2	vs ATL	28%	111–119	L 104–108	✓correct	+4
Nov 1	vs BKN	59%	119–116	L 90–98	✗missed	−11
Oct 30	at MIA	36%	117–122	L 125–145	✓correct	−15
Oct 28	vs PHI	41%	116–119	L 109–114	✓correct	−2
Oct 26	at MIL	44%	118–120	L 102–110	✓correct	−6
Oct 25	at BKN	56%	118–116	W 136–109	✓correct	+25
Oct 23	vs DAL	56%	121–119	L 105–121	✗missed	−18
Oct 21	at NOP	41%	121–124	W 123–120	✗missed	+6

2025-26

10.3 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 8.7 to 12.0; 4th smallest of 30

−2.0

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -4.2 to 0.4

13.2 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.4

70%

winner picked

82 games involving IND

19 / 28.8

actual / expected wins

gap −9.8

0.194

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	IND win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 12	vs DET	13%	108–125	L 121–133	✓correct	+5
Apr 10	vs PHI	29%	114–122	L 94–105	✓correct	−3
Apr 9	at BKN	58%	115–112	W 123–94	✓correct	+26
Apr 7	vs MIN	27%	115–124	L 104–124	✓correct	−11
Apr 5	at CLE	13%	111–128	L 108–117	✓correct	+8
Apr 3	at CHA	15%	110–125	L 108–129	✓correct	−6
Apr 1	at CHI	31%	117–124	W 145–126	✗missed	+26
Mar 29	vs MIA	22%	117–128	W 135–118	✗missed	+28
Mar 27	vs LAC	29%	114–122	L 113–114	✓correct	+7
Mar 25	vs LAL	29%	112–120	L 130–137	✓correct	+1
Mar 23	at ORL	19%	109–122	W 128–126	✗missed	+15
Mar 21	at SAS	15%	108–123	L 119–134	✓correct	±0
Mar 18	vs POR	27%	113–122	L 119–127	✓correct	+1
Mar 17	at NYK	15%	104–119	L 110–136	✓correct	−11
Mar 15	at MIL	36%	112–117	L 123–134	✓correct	−6
Mar 13	vs NYK	14%	109–125	L 92–101	✓correct	+7
Mar 12	vs PHX	24%	105–115	L 108–123	✓correct	−5
Mar 10	at SAC	47%	117–118	L 109–114	✓correct	−4
Mar 8	at POR	20%	113–125	L 111–131	✓correct	−8
Mar 6	at LAL	22%	111–122	L 117–128	✓correct	±0
Mar 4	at LAC	17%	107–121	L 107–130	✓correct	−9
Mar 1	vs MEM	29%	113–121	L 106–125	✓correct	−11
Feb 26	vs CHA	19%	107–120	L 109–133	✓correct	−11
Feb 24	vs PHI	27%	111–120	L 114–135	✓correct	−12
Feb 22	vs DAL	39%	115–119	L 130–134	✓correct	±0
Feb 20	at WAS	61%	118–114	L 118–131	✗missed	−17
Feb 19	at WAS	61%	118–114	L 105–112	✗missed	−11
Feb 11	at BKN	44%	111–113	W 115–110	✗missed	+7
Feb 10	at NYK	20%	106–118	W 137–134	✗missed	+15
Feb 8	at TOR	22%	111–122	L 104–122	✓correct	−7
Feb 6	at MIL	44%	114–116	L 99–105	✓correct	−4
Feb 3	vs UTA	47%	115–116	L 122–131	✓correct	−8
Feb 2	vs HOU	42%	109–112	L 114–118	✓correct	−1
Jan 31	vs ATL	47%	115–116	W 129–124	✗missed	+6
Jan 28	vs CHI	47%	115–116	W 113–110	✗missed	+4
Jan 26	at ATL	34%	111–117	L 116–132	✓correct	−10
Jan 23	at OKC	14%	107–123	W 117–114	✗missed	+19
Jan 21	at BOS	24%	108–118	L 104–119	✓correct	−5
Jan 19	at PHI	24%	111–121	L 104–113	✓correct	+1
Jan 17	at DET	17%	109–123	L 78–121	✓correct	−29
Jan 16	vs NOP	56%	118–116	W 127–119	✓correct	+6
Jan 14	vs TOR	39%	115–119	L 101–115	✓correct	−10
Jan 12	vs BOS	27%	114–123	W 98–96	✗missed	+11
Jan 10	vs MIA	31%	115–122	W 123–99	✗missed	+31
Jan 8	at CHA	29%	115–123	W 114–112	✗missed	+10
Jan 6	vs CLE	31%	116–123	L 116–120	✓correct	+3
Jan 4	at ORL	22%	112–123	L 127–135	✓correct	+3
Jan 2	vs SAS	22%	113–124	L 113–123	✓correct	+1
Dec 31	vs ORL	36%	113–118	L 110–112	✓correct	+3
Dec 29	at HOU	22%	106–117	L 119–126	✓correct	+4
Dec 27	at MIA	39%	112–116	L 116–142	✓correct	−22
Dec 26	vs BOS	24%	107–117	L 122–140	✓correct	−8
Dec 23	vs MIL	53%	114–113	L 94–111	✗missed	−18
Dec 22	at BOS	26%	108–117	L 95–103	✓correct	+1
Dec 20	at NOP	56%	117–115	L 109–128	✗missed	−21
Dec 18	vs NYK	36%	107–112	L 113–114	✓correct	+4
Dec 14	vs WAS	82%	122–109	L 89–108	✗missed	−32
Dec 12	at PHI	58%	116–113	L 105–115	✗missed	−13
Dec 8	vs SAC	61%	117–113	W 116–105	✓correct	+7
Dec 5	at CHI	56%	119–117	W 120–105	✓correct	+13
Dec 3	vs DEN	39%	116–120	L 120–135	✓correct	−11
Dec 1	vs CLE	47%	115–116	L 119–135	✓correct	−15
Nov 29	vs CHI	39%	118–122	W 103–101	✗missed	+6
Nov 28	vs WAS	71%	121–113	W 119–86	✓correct	+25
Nov 26	at TOR	17%	110–124	L 95–97	✓correct	+12
Nov 24	vs DET	31%	114–121	L 117–122	✓correct	+2
Nov 21	at CLE	14%	112–128	L 109–120	✓correct	+5
Nov 19	vs CHA	47%	114–115	W 127–118	✗missed	+10
Nov 17	at DET	22%	110–121	L 112–127	✓correct	−4
Nov 15	vs TOR	31%	113–120	L 111–129	✓correct	−11
Nov 13	at PHX	26%	111–120	L 98–133	✓correct	−26
Nov 11	at UTA	56%	114–112	L 128–152	✗missed	−26
Nov 9	at GSW	22%	110–121	L 83–114	✓correct	−20
Nov 8	at DEN	20%	109–121	L 100–117	✓correct	−5
Nov 5	vs BKN	69%	114–107	L 103–112	✗missed	−16
Nov 3	vs MIL	44%	112–114	L 115–117	✓correct	±0
Nov 1	vs GSW	44%	110–112	W 114–109	✗missed	+7
Oct 31	vs ATL	56%	116–114	L 108–128	✗missed	−22
Oct 29	at DAL	53%	116–115	L 105–107	✗missed	−3
Oct 26	at MIN	34%	110–116	L 110–114	✓correct	+2
Oct 25	at MEM	56%	117–115	L 103–128	✗missed	−27
Oct 23	vs OKC	47%	112–113	L 135–141	✓correct	−5

2024-25

10.3 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.1 to 11.6; 10th smallest of 30

+0.7

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -1.3 to 2.7

12.9 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

60%

winner picked

103 games involving IND

64 / 54.9

actual / expected wins

gap +9.1

0.222

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 103 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	IND win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Jun 22 PO	at OKC	23%	105–116	L 91–103	✓correct	−1
Jun 19 PO	vs OKC	49%	108–109	W 108–91	✗missed	+18
Jun 16 PO	at OKC	27%	106–115	L 109–120	✓correct	−2
Jun 13 PO	vs OKC	54%	110–109	L 104–111	✗missed	−8
Jun 11 PO	vs OKC	54%	110–109	W 116–107	✓correct	+8
Jun 8 PO	at OKC	27%	107–116	L 107–123	✓correct	−7
Jun 5 PO	at OKC	21%	104–116	W 111–110	✗missed	+13
May 31 PO	vs NYK	64%	111–106	W 125–108	✓correct	+12
May 29 PO	at NYK	46%	108–109	L 94–111	✓correct	−16
May 27 PO	vs NYK	54%	109–108	W 130–121	✓correct	+8
May 25 PO	vs NYK	62%	112–108	L 100–106	✗missed	−10
May 23 PO	at NYK	43%	105–107	W 114–109	✗missed	+7
May 21 PO	at NYK	38%	103–107	W 138–135	✗missed	+7
May 13 PO	at CLE	36%	105–110	W 114–105	✗missed	+14
May 11 PO	vs CLE	44%	106–109	W 129–109	✗missed	+23
May 9 PO	vs CLE	36%	104–110	L 104–126	✓correct	−16
May 6 PO	at CLE	41%	105–108	W 120–119	✗missed	+4
May 4 PO	at CLE	25%	102–112	W 121–112	✗missed	+19
Apr 29 PO	vs MIL	64%	113–108	W 119–118	✓correct	−4
Apr 27 PO	at MIL	36%	108–113	W 129–103	✗missed	+31
Apr 25 PO	at MIL	41%	110–113	L 101–117	✓correct	−13
Apr 22 PO	vs MIL	71%	117–109	W 123–115	✓correct	±0
Apr 19 PO	vs MIL	71%	119–111	W 117–98	✓correct	+11
Apr 13	at CLE	46%	119–120	W 126–118	✗missed	+9
Apr 11	vs ORL	41%	110–114	L 115–129	✓correct	−10
Apr 10	vs CLE	59%	119–116	W 114–112	✓correct	−1
Apr 8	vs WAS	86%	127–110	W 104–98	✓correct	−11
Apr 6	at DEN	38%	114–118	W 125–120	✗missed	+9
Apr 4	vs UTA	90%	127–107	W 140–112	✓correct	+8
Apr 2	vs CHA	88%	124–106	W 119–105	✓correct	−4
Mar 31	vs SAC	64%	117–112	W 111–109	✓correct	−3
Mar 29	at OKC	19%	110–123	L 111–132	✓correct	−8
Mar 27	at WAS	75%	123–112	W 162–109	✓correct	+42
Mar 26	vs LAL	69%	119–112	L 119–120	✗missed	−8
Mar 24	vs MIN	54%	114–113	W 119–103	✓correct	+15
Mar 22	vs BKN	81%	119–106	W 108–103	✓correct	−8
Mar 20	vs BKN	77%	118–107	W 105–99	✓correct	−5
Mar 19	vs DAL	69%	123–116	W 135–131	✓correct	−3
Mar 17	at MIN	38%	110–114	W 132–130	✗missed	+6
Mar 15	at MIL	33%	113–119	L 119–126	✓correct	−1
Mar 14	at PHI	73%	122–112	W 112–100	✓correct	+2
Mar 11	vs MIL	62%	119–115	W 115–114	✓correct	−3
Mar 10	at CHI	64%	121–115	L 103–121	✗missed	−24
Mar 8	at ATL	56%	123–120	L 118–120	✗missed	−5
Mar 6	at ATL	59%	123–119	L 118–124	✗missed	−10
Mar 4	vs HOU	59%	118–115	W 115–102	✓correct	+10
Mar 2	vs CHI	73%	124–115	W 127–112	✓correct	+6
Feb 28	at MIA	54%	114–112	L 120–125	✗missed	−7
Feb 26	vs TOR	73%	121–112	W 111–91	✓correct	+11
Feb 24	vs DEN	49%	121–122	L 116–125	✓correct	−8
Feb 23	vs LAC	71%	122–114	W 129–111	✓correct	+10
Feb 20	vs MEM	49%	120–121	W 127–113	✗missed	+15
Feb 12	at WAS	64%	122–116	W 134–130	✓correct	−2
Feb 11	vs NYK	59%	118–115	L 115–128	✗missed	−16
Feb 8	at LAL	38%	113–117	L 117–124	✓correct	−3
Feb 6	at LAC	54%	114–112	W 119–112	✓correct	+5
Feb 4	at POR	54%	114–112	L 89–112	✗missed	−25
Feb 3	at UTA	73%	121–111	W 112–111	✓correct	−9
Feb 1	vs ATL	77%	121–110	W 132–127	✓correct	−6
Jan 29	vs DET	69%	119–112	W 133–119	✓correct	+7
Jan 18	vs PHI	75%	117–107	W 115–102	✓correct	+3
Jan 16	at DET	51%	114–113	W 111–100	✓correct	+10
Jan 14	vs CLE	49%	117–118	L 117–127	✓correct	−9
Jan 12	at CLE	31%	116–123	W 108–93	✗missed	+22
Jan 10	vs GSW	71%	117–109	W 108–96	✓correct	+4
Jan 8	vs CHI	67%	120–114	W 129–113	✓correct	+10
Jan 6	at BKN	66%	115–108	W 113–99	✓correct	+7
Jan 4	vs PHX	62%	117–113	W 126–108	✓correct	+14
Jan 2	at MIA	46%	112–113	W 128–115	✗missed	+14
Dec 31	vs MIL	67%	118–112	L 112–120	✗missed	−14
Dec 29	at BOS	33%	113–119	W 123–114	✗missed	+15
Dec 27	at BOS	23%	110–121	L 105–142	✓correct	−26
Dec 26	vs OKC	41%	112–116	L 114–120	✓correct	−2
Dec 23	at GSW	36%	112–117	W 111–105	✗missed	+11
Dec 22	at SAC	36%	115–120	W 122–95	✗missed	+32
Dec 19	at PHX	38%	117–121	W 120–111	✗missed	+13
Dec 15	vs NOP	69%	118–111	W 119–104	✓correct	+8
Dec 13	at PHI	38%	110–114	W 121–107	✗missed	+18
Dec 8	vs CHA	77%	118–107	L 109–113	✗missed	−15
Dec 6	at CHI	36%	118–123	W 132–123	✗missed	+14
Dec 4	at BKN	51%	117–116	L 90–99	✗missed	−10
Dec 3	at TOR	46%	116–117	L 111–122	✓correct	−10
Dec 1	at MEM	31%	115–122	L 121–136	✓correct	−8
Nov 29	vs DET	69%	118–111	L 106–130	✗missed	−31
Nov 27	vs POR	79%	120–108	W 121–114	✓correct	−5
Nov 25	vs NOP	71%	114–106	W 114–110	✓correct	−4
Nov 24	vs WAS	81%	123–110	W 115–103	✓correct	−1
Nov 22	at MIL	38%	111–115	L 117–129	✓correct	−8
Nov 20	at HOU	23%	109–120	L 113–130	✓correct	−6
Nov 18	at TOR	56%	114–111	L 119–130	✗missed	−14
Nov 17	vs MIA	57%	114–112	W 119–110	✓correct	+7
Nov 15	vs MIA	49%	112–113	L 111–124	✓correct	−12
Nov 13	at ORL	41%	110–113	L 90–94	✓correct	−1
Nov 10	vs NYK	46%	110–112	W 132–121	✗missed	+13
Nov 8	at CHA	64%	117–111	L 83–103	✗missed	−26
Nov 6	vs ORL	67%	117–111	W 118–111	✓correct	+1
Nov 4	at DAL	38%	108–112	W 134–127	✗missed	+11
Nov 1	at NOP	54%	112–110	L 118–125	✗missed	−9
Oct 30	vs BOS	36%	106–112	W 135–132	✗missed	+9
Oct 28	at ORL	46%	108–109	L 115–119	✓correct	−3
Oct 27	vs PHI	54%	112–111	L 114–118	✗missed	−5
Oct 25	at NYK	38%	109–113	L 98–123	✓correct	−21
Oct 23	at DET	61%	113–108	W 115–109	✓correct	+1

2023-24

12.7 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 11.2 to 14.3; 27th smallest of 30

+1.5

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -1.0 to 4.2

15.8 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.3

59%

winner picked

99 games involving IND

55 / 51.8

actual / expected wins

gap +3.2

0.240

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 99 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	IND win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
May 27 PO	vs BOS	53%	109–110	L 102–105	✓correct	−2
May 25 PO	vs BOS	53%	108–109	L 111–114	✓correct	−2
May 23 PO	at BOS	43%	108–109	L 110–126	✓correct	−15
May 21 PO	at BOS	39%	108–111	L 128–133	✓correct	−2
May 19 PO	at NYK	43%	110–111	W 130–109	✗missed	+22
May 17 PO	vs NYK	61%	111–108	W 116–103	✓correct	+10
May 14 PO	at NYK	41%	107–109	L 91–121	✓correct	−28
May 12 PO	vs NYK	59%	111–109	W 121–89	✓correct	+30
May 10 PO	vs NYK	57%	110–109	W 111–106	✓correct	+4
May 8 PO	at NYK	41%	107–109	L 121–130	✓correct	−7
May 6 PO	at NYK	37%	106–110	L 117–121	✓correct	±0
May 2 PO	vs MIL	61%	107–104	W 120–98	✓correct	+19
Apr 30 PO	at MIL	55%	113–108	L 92–115	✗missed	−28
Apr 28 PO	vs MIL	72%	113–104	W 126–113	✓correct	+4
Apr 26 PO	vs MIL	68%	111–104	W 121–118	✓correct	−4
Apr 23 PO	at MIL	51%	110–107	W 125–108	✓correct	+14
Apr 21 PO	at MIL	55%	113–108	L 94–109	✗missed	−20
Apr 14	vs ATL	61%	117–114	W 157–115	✓correct	+39
Apr 12	at CLE	53%	116–112	L 120–129	✗missed	−13
Apr 9	at TOR	74%	127–112	W 140–123	✓correct	+2
Apr 7	vs MIA	57%	112–111	W 117–115	✓correct	+1
Apr 5	vs OKC	65%	117–112	W 126–112	✓correct	+9
Apr 3	at BKN	61%	118–110	L 111–115	✗missed	−12
Apr 1	vs BKN	65%	114–109	W 133–111	✓correct	+17
Mar 29	vs LAL	61%	118–115	W 109–90	✓correct	+16
Mar 27	at CHI	47%	117–116	L 99–125	✗missed	−27
Mar 25	at LAC	39%	113–116	W 133–116	✗missed	+20
Mar 24	at LAL	41%	116–118	L 145–150	✓correct	−3
Mar 22	at GSW	37%	114–118	W 123–111	✗missed	+16
Mar 20	at DET	65%	119–109	W 122–103	✓correct	+9
Mar 18	vs CLE	61%	115–112	L 103–108	✗missed	−8
Mar 16	vs BKN	57%	113–112	W 121–100	✓correct	+20
Mar 13	vs CHI	61%	117–114	L 129–132	✗missed	−6
Mar 12	at OKC	28%	112–121	W 121–111	✗missed	+19
Mar 10	at ORL	37%	109–113	W 111–97	✗missed	+18
Mar 7	vs MIN	53%	114–115	L 111–113	✓correct	−1
Mar 5	at DAL	41%	117–119	W 137–120	✗missed	+19
Mar 3	at SAS	61%	123–115	L 105–117	✗missed	−20
Mar 1	at NOP	32%	110–117	L 102–129	✓correct	−20
Feb 28	vs NOP	59%	118–116	W 123–114	✓correct	+7
Feb 26	vs TOR	65%	121–116	L 122–130	✗missed	−13
Feb 25	vs DAL	59%	118–116	W 133–111	✓correct	+20
Feb 22	vs DET	78%	123–110	W 129–115	✓correct	+1
Feb 14	at TOR	55%	121–116	W 127–125	✓correct	−3
Feb 12	at CHA	63%	123–114	L 102–111	✗missed	−18
Feb 10	at NYK	41%	111–113	W 125–111	✗missed	+16
Feb 8	vs GSW	65%	121–116	L 109–131	✗missed	−27
Feb 6	vs HOU	67%	120–114	W 132–129	✓correct	−3
Feb 4	at CHA	61%	122–114	W 115–99	✓correct	+8
Feb 2	vs SAC	59%	118–116	L 122–133	✗missed	−13
Feb 1	at NYK	37%	110–114	L 105–109	✓correct	±0
Jan 30	at BOS	35%	114–119	L 124–129	✓correct	±0
Jan 28	vs MEM	72%	120–111	W 116–110	✓correct	−3
Jan 26	vs PHX	57%	116–115	W 133–131	✓correct	+1
Jan 25	vs PHI	53%	114–115	W 134–122	✗missed	+13
Jan 23	vs DEN	53%	114–115	L 109–114	✓correct	−4
Jan 21	at PHX	34%	115–121	L 110–117	✓correct	−1
Jan 19	at POR	63%	123–114	L 115–118	✗missed	−12
Jan 18	at SAC	43%	117–118	W 126–121	✗missed	+6
Jan 15	at UTA	41%	117–119	L 105–132	✓correct	−25
Jan 14	at DEN	35%	112–117	L 109–117	✓correct	−3
Jan 12	at ATL	47%	121–120	W 126–108	✓correct	+17
Jan 10	vs WAS	76%	123–111	W 112–104	✓correct	−4
Jan 8	vs BOS	53%	118–119	W 133–131	✗missed	+3
Jan 6	vs BOS	57%	118–117	L 101–118	✗missed	−18
Jan 5	vs ATL	65%	123–118	W 150–116	✓correct	+29
Jan 3	vs MIL	47%	118–122	W 142–130	✗missed	+16
Jan 1	at MIL	39%	117–120	W 122–113	✗missed	+12
Dec 30	vs NYK	59%	121–119	W 140–126	✓correct	+12
Dec 28	at CHI	39%	115–118	W 120–104	✗missed	+19
Dec 26	at HOU	30%	112–120	W 123–117	✗missed	+14
Dec 23	vs ORL	53%	120–121	L 110–117	✓correct	−6
Dec 21	at MEM	49%	116–114	L 103–116	✗missed	−15
Dec 20	vs CHA	70%	123–115	W 144–113	✓correct	+23
Dec 18	vs LAC	49%	116–119	L 127–151	✓correct	−21
Dec 16	at MIN	30%	110–118	L 109–127	✓correct	−10
Dec 15	at WAS	69%	124–112	L 123–137	✗missed	−26
Dec 13	at MIL	43%	116–117	L 126–140	✓correct	−13
Dec 11	at DET	67%	122–111	W 131–123	✓correct	−3
Dec 7	at MIL	47%	117–116	W 128–119	✓correct	+8
Dec 4	vs BOS	53%	120–121	W 122–112	✗missed	+11
Dec 2	at MIA	37%	115–119	W 144–129	✗missed	+19
Nov 30	at MIA	37%	114–118	L 132–142	✓correct	−6
Nov 27	vs POR	70%	122–114	L 110–114	✗missed	−12
Nov 24	vs DET	68%	124–117	W 136–113	✓correct	+16
Nov 22	vs TOR	49%	120–123	L 131–132	✓correct	+2
Nov 21	at ATL	41%	118–120	W 157–152	✗missed	+7
Nov 19	vs ORL	61%	121–118	L 116–128	✗missed	−15
Nov 14	at PHI	37%	113–117	W 132–126	✗missed	+10
Nov 12	at PHI	41%	114–116	L 126–137	✓correct	−9
Nov 9	vs MIL	51%	116–118	W 126–124	✗missed	+4
Nov 8	vs UTA	57%	117–116	W 134–118	✓correct	+15
Nov 6	vs SAS	65%	120–115	W 152–111	✓correct	+36
Nov 4	vs CHA	57%	115–114	L 124–125	✗missed	−2
Nov 3	vs CLE	59%	117–115	W 121–116	✓correct	+3
Nov 1	at BOS	34%	112–118	L 104–155	✓correct	−45
Oct 30	vs CHI	57%	118–117	L 105–112	✗missed	−8
Oct 28	at CLE	30%	110–118	W 125–113	✗missed	+20
Oct 25	vs WAS	49%	118–121	W 143–120	✗missed	+26

2022-23

9.1 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 7.9 to 10.3; 3rd smallest of 30

−0.1

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -1.9 to 2.0

11.2 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 10.3

62%

winner picked

82 games involving IND

35 / 34.5

actual / expected wins

gap +0.5

0.234

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	IND win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 9	at NYK	35%	115–121	W 141–136	✗missed	+11
Apr 7	vs DET	65%	120–114	L 115–122	✗missed	−13
Apr 5	vs NYK	45%	121–123	L 129–138	✓correct	−7
Apr 2	at CLE	20%	111–124	L 105–115	✓correct	+3
Mar 31	vs OKC	37%	116–121	W 121–117	✗missed	+9
Mar 29	vs MIL	26%	115–125	L 136–149	✓correct	−3
Mar 27	vs DAL	45%	118–120	L 104–127	✓correct	−21
Mar 25	at ATL	32%	116–123	L 130–143	✓correct	−6
Mar 24	at BOS	22%	112–124	L 95–120	✓correct	−13
Mar 22	at TOR	30%	114–122	W 118–114	✗missed	+12
Mar 20	at CHA	47%	115–116	L 109–115	✓correct	−5
Mar 18	vs PHI	37%	116–121	L 121–141	✓correct	−15
Mar 16	at MIL	17%	111–126	W 139–123	✗missed	+31
Mar 13	at DET	70%	124–116	L 97–117	✗missed	−28
Mar 11	at DET	65%	120–114	W 121–115	✓correct	±0
Mar 9	vs HOU	81%	122–108	W 134–125	✓correct	−5
Mar 6	vs PHI	42%	115–118	L 143–147	✓correct	−1
Mar 5	at CHI	35%	112–118	W 125–122	✗missed	+9
Mar 2	at SAS	70%	121–113	L 99–110	✗missed	−19
Feb 28	at DAL	32%	114–121	W 124–122	✗missed	+9
Feb 25	at ORL	40%	113–117	W 121–108	✗missed	+17
Feb 23	vs BOS	35%	113–119	L 138–142	✓correct	+2
Feb 15	vs CHI	42%	115–118	W 117–113	✗missed	+7
Feb 13	vs UTA	40%	118–122	L 117–123	✓correct	−2
Feb 11	at WAS	26%	112–122	L 113–127	✓correct	−4
Feb 10	vs PHX	35%	113–119	L 104–117	✓correct	−7
Feb 8	at MIA	40%	112–116	L 111–116	✓correct	−1
Feb 5	vs CLE	30%	112–120	L 103–122	✓correct	−11
Feb 3	vs SAC	40%	119–123	W 107–104	✗missed	+7
Feb 2	vs LAL	42%	119–122	L 111–112	✓correct	+2
Jan 29	at MEM	35%	111–117	L 100–112	✓correct	−6
Jan 27	vs MIL	32%	115–122	L 131–141	✓correct	−3
Jan 25	at ORL	53%	116–115	L 120–126	✗missed	−7
Jan 24	vs CHI	30%	112–120	W 116–110	✗missed	+14
Jan 21	at PHX	45%	113–115	L 107–112	✓correct	−3
Jan 20	at DEN	37%	111–116	L 111–134	✓correct	−18
Jan 18	at OKC	32%	113–120	L 106–126	✓correct	−13
Jan 16	at MIL	37%	111–116	L 119–132	✓correct	−8
Jan 14	vs MEM	35%	114–120	L 112–130	✓correct	−12
Jan 13	vs ATL	60%	116–112	L 111–113	✗missed	−6
Jan 11	at NYK	35%	110–116	L 113–119	✓correct	±0
Jan 8	vs CHA	76%	120–109	W 116–111	✓correct	−6
Jan 6	vs POR	53%	116–115	W 108–99	✓correct	+8
Jan 4	at PHI	32%	109–116	L 126–129	✓correct	+4
Jan 2	vs TOR	47%	114–115	W 122–114	✗missed	+9
Dec 31	vs LAC	40%	112–116	W 131–130	✗missed	+5
Dec 29	vs CLE	37%	108–113	W 135–126	✗missed	+14
Dec 27	vs ATL	45%	116–118	W 129–114	✗missed	+17
Dec 26	at NOP	35%	110–116	L 93–113	✓correct	−14
Dec 23	at MIA	47%	110–111	W 111–108	✗missed	+4
Dec 21	at BOS	35%	112–118	W 117–112	✗missed	+11
Dec 18	vs NYK	30%	112–120	L 106–109	✓correct	+5
Dec 16	at CLE	35%	108–114	L 112–118	✓correct	±0
Dec 14	vs GSW	35%	113–119	W 125–119	✗missed	+12
Dec 12	vs MIA	35%	112–118	L 82–87	✓correct	+1
Dec 10	vs BKN	37%	116–121	L 133–136	✓correct	+2
Dec 9	vs WAS	53%	116–115	W 121–111	✓correct	+9
Dec 7	at MIN	47%	112–113	L 115–121	✓correct	−5
Dec 5	at GSW	40%	111–115	W 112–104	✗missed	+12
Dec 4	at POR	53%	116–115	L 100–116	✗missed	−17
Dec 2	at UTA	35%	114–120	L 119–139	✓correct	−14
Nov 30	at SAC	47%	118–119	L 114–137	✓correct	−22
Nov 28	at LAL	60%	117–113	W 116–115	✓correct	−3
Nov 27	at LAC	47%	112–113	L 100–114	✓correct	−13
Nov 25	vs BKN	37%	111–116	W 128–117	✗missed	+16
Nov 23	vs MIN	45%	114–116	L 101–115	✓correct	−12
Nov 21	vs ORL	68%	118–111	W 123–102	✓correct	+14
Nov 19	vs ORL	72%	118–109	W 114–113	✓correct	−8
Nov 18	at HOU	70%	119–111	W 99–91	✓correct	±0
Nov 16	at CHA	47%	110–111	W 125–113	✗missed	+13
Nov 12	vs TOR	40%	113–117	W 118–104	✗missed	+18
Nov 9	vs DEN	32%	112–119	L 119–122	✓correct	+4
Nov 7	vs NOP	30%	111–119	W 129–122	✗missed	+15
Nov 4	vs MIA	40%	113–117	W 101–99	✗missed	+6
Oct 31	at BKN	40%	115–119	L 109–116	✓correct	−3
Oct 29	at BKN	37%	115–120	W 125–116	✗missed	+14
Oct 28	at WAS	35%	113–119	W 127–117	✗missed	+16
Oct 26	at CHI	40%	112–116	L 109–124	✓correct	−11
Oct 24	at PHI	26%	109–119	L 106–120	✓correct	−4
Oct 22	vs DET	63%	118–113	W 124–115	✓correct	+4
Oct 21	vs SAS	35%	112–118	L 134–137	✓correct	+3
Oct 19	vs WAS	45%	114–116	L 107–114	✓correct	−5

2022-23 to 2026-27

10.7 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.0 to 11.4; 7th smallest of 30

+0.1

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -1.1 to 1.3

13.4 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

62%

winner picked

376 games involving IND

176 / 174.3

actual / expected wins

gap +1.8

0.224

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 376 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	IND win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 7	vs DEN	30%	112–119	L 102–114	✓correct	−5
Nov 4	at MEM	32%	114–120	W 107–103	✗missed	+10
Nov 2	vs ATL	28%	111–119	L 104–108	✓correct	+4
Nov 1	vs BKN	59%	119–116	L 90–98	✗missed	−11
Oct 30	at MIA	36%	117–122	L 125–145	✓correct	−15
Oct 28	vs PHI	41%	116–119	L 109–114	✓correct	−2
Oct 26	at MIL	44%	118–120	L 102–110	✓correct	−6
Oct 25	at BKN	56%	118–116	W 136–109	✓correct	+25
Oct 23	vs DAL	56%	121–119	L 105–121	✗missed	−18
Oct 21	at NOP	41%	121–124	W 123–120	✗missed	+6
Apr 12	vs DET	13%	108–125	L 121–133	✓correct	+5
Apr 10	vs PHI	29%	114–122	L 94–105	✓correct	−3
Apr 9	at BKN	58%	115–112	W 123–94	✓correct	+26
Apr 7	vs MIN	27%	115–124	L 104–124	✓correct	−11
Apr 5	at CLE	13%	111–128	L 108–117	✓correct	+8
Apr 3	at CHA	15%	110–125	L 108–129	✓correct	−6
Apr 1	at CHI	31%	117–124	W 145–126	✗missed	+26
Mar 29	vs MIA	22%	117–128	W 135–118	✗missed	+28
Mar 27	vs LAC	29%	114–122	L 113–114	✓correct	+7
Mar 25	vs LAL	29%	112–120	L 130–137	✓correct	+1
Mar 23	at ORL	19%	109–122	W 128–126	✗missed	+15
Mar 21	at SAS	15%	108–123	L 119–134	✓correct	±0
Mar 18	vs POR	27%	113–122	L 119–127	✓correct	+1
Mar 17	at NYK	15%	104–119	L 110–136	✓correct	−11
Mar 15	at MIL	36%	112–117	L 123–134	✓correct	−6
Mar 13	vs NYK	14%	109–125	L 92–101	✓correct	+7
Mar 12	vs PHX	24%	105–115	L 108–123	✓correct	−5
Mar 10	at SAC	47%	117–118	L 109–114	✓correct	−4
Mar 8	at POR	20%	113–125	L 111–131	✓correct	−8
Mar 6	at LAL	22%	111–122	L 117–128	✓correct	±0
Mar 4	at LAC	17%	107–121	L 107–130	✓correct	−9
Mar 1	vs MEM	29%	113–121	L 106–125	✓correct	−11
Feb 26	vs CHA	19%	107–120	L 109–133	✓correct	−11
Feb 24	vs PHI	27%	111–120	L 114–135	✓correct	−12
Feb 22	vs DAL	39%	115–119	L 130–134	✓correct	±0
Feb 20	at WAS	61%	118–114	L 118–131	✗missed	−17
Feb 19	at WAS	61%	118–114	L 105–112	✗missed	−11
Feb 11	at BKN	44%	111–113	W 115–110	✗missed	+7
Feb 10	at NYK	20%	106–118	W 137–134	✗missed	+15
Feb 8	at TOR	22%	111–122	L 104–122	✓correct	−7
Feb 6	at MIL	44%	114–116	L 99–105	✓correct	−4
Feb 3	vs UTA	47%	115–116	L 122–131	✓correct	−8
Feb 2	vs HOU	42%	109–112	L 114–118	✓correct	−1
Jan 31	vs ATL	47%	115–116	W 129–124	✗missed	+6
Jan 28	vs CHI	47%	115–116	W 113–110	✗missed	+4
Jan 26	at ATL	34%	111–117	L 116–132	✓correct	−10
Jan 23	at OKC	14%	107–123	W 117–114	✗missed	+19
Jan 21	at BOS	24%	108–118	L 104–119	✓correct	−5
Jan 19	at PHI	24%	111–121	L 104–113	✓correct	+1
Jan 17	at DET	17%	109–123	L 78–121	✓correct	−29
Jan 16	vs NOP	56%	118–116	W 127–119	✓correct	+6
Jan 14	vs TOR	39%	115–119	L 101–115	✓correct	−10
Jan 12	vs BOS	27%	114–123	W 98–96	✗missed	+11
Jan 10	vs MIA	31%	115–122	W 123–99	✗missed	+31
Jan 8	at CHA	29%	115–123	W 114–112	✗missed	+10
Jan 6	vs CLE	31%	116–123	L 116–120	✓correct	+3
Jan 4	at ORL	22%	112–123	L 127–135	✓correct	+3
Jan 2	vs SAS	22%	113–124	L 113–123	✓correct	+1
Dec 31	vs ORL	36%	113–118	L 110–112	✓correct	+3
Dec 29	at HOU	22%	106–117	L 119–126	✓correct	+4
Dec 27	at MIA	39%	112–116	L 116–142	✓correct	−22
Dec 26	vs BOS	24%	107–117	L 122–140	✓correct	−8
Dec 23	vs MIL	53%	114–113	L 94–111	✗missed	−18
Dec 22	at BOS	26%	108–117	L 95–103	✓correct	+1
Dec 20	at NOP	56%	117–115	L 109–128	✗missed	−21
Dec 18	vs NYK	36%	107–112	L 113–114	✓correct	+4
Dec 14	vs WAS	82%	122–109	L 89–108	✗missed	−32
Dec 12	at PHI	58%	116–113	L 105–115	✗missed	−13
Dec 8	vs SAC	61%	117–113	W 116–105	✓correct	+7
Dec 5	at CHI	56%	119–117	W 120–105	✓correct	+13
Dec 3	vs DEN	39%	116–120	L 120–135	✓correct	−11
Dec 1	vs CLE	47%	115–116	L 119–135	✓correct	−15
Nov 29	vs CHI	39%	118–122	W 103–101	✗missed	+6
Nov 28	vs WAS	71%	121–113	W 119–86	✓correct	+25
Nov 26	at TOR	17%	110–124	L 95–97	✓correct	+12
Nov 24	vs DET	31%	114–121	L 117–122	✓correct	+2
Nov 21	at CLE	14%	112–128	L 109–120	✓correct	+5
Nov 19	vs CHA	47%	114–115	W 127–118	✗missed	+10
Nov 17	at DET	22%	110–121	L 112–127	✓correct	−4
Nov 15	vs TOR	31%	113–120	L 111–129	✓correct	−11
Nov 13	at PHX	26%	111–120	L 98–133	✓correct	−26
Nov 11	at UTA	56%	114–112	L 128–152	✗missed	−26
Nov 9	at GSW	22%	110–121	L 83–114	✓correct	−20
Nov 8	at DEN	20%	109–121	L 100–117	✓correct	−5
Nov 5	vs BKN	69%	114–107	L 103–112	✗missed	−16
Nov 3	vs MIL	44%	112–114	L 115–117	✓correct	±0
Nov 1	vs GSW	44%	110–112	W 114–109	✗missed	+7
Oct 31	vs ATL	56%	116–114	L 108–128	✗missed	−22
Oct 29	at DAL	53%	116–115	L 105–107	✗missed	−3
Oct 26	at MIN	34%	110–116	L 110–114	✓correct	+2
Oct 25	at MEM	56%	117–115	L 103–128	✗missed	−27
Oct 23	vs OKC	47%	112–113	L 135–141	✓correct	−5
Jun 22 PO	at OKC	23%	105–116	L 91–103	✓correct	−1
Jun 19 PO	vs OKC	49%	108–109	W 108–91	✗missed	+18
Jun 16 PO	at OKC	27%	106–115	L 109–120	✓correct	−2
Jun 13 PO	vs OKC	54%	110–109	L 104–111	✗missed	−8
Jun 11 PO	vs OKC	54%	110–109	W 116–107	✓correct	+8
Jun 8 PO	at OKC	27%	107–116	L 107–123	✓correct	−7
Jun 5 PO	at OKC	21%	104–116	W 111–110	✗missed	+13
May 31 PO	vs NYK	64%	111–106	W 125–108	✓correct	+12
May 29 PO	at NYK	46%	108–109	L 94–111	✓correct	−16
May 27 PO	vs NYK	54%	109–108	W 130–121	✓correct	+8
May 25 PO	vs NYK	62%	112–108	L 100–106	✗missed	−10
May 23 PO	at NYK	43%	105–107	W 114–109	✗missed	+7
May 21 PO	at NYK	38%	103–107	W 138–135	✗missed	+7
May 13 PO	at CLE	36%	105–110	W 114–105	✗missed	+14
May 11 PO	vs CLE	44%	106–109	W 129–109	✗missed	+23
May 9 PO	vs CLE	36%	104–110	L 104–126	✓correct	−16
May 6 PO	at CLE	41%	105–108	W 120–119	✗missed	+4
May 4 PO	at CLE	25%	102–112	W 121–112	✗missed	+19
Apr 29 PO	vs MIL	64%	113–108	W 119–118	✓correct	−4
Apr 27 PO	at MIL	36%	108–113	W 129–103	✗missed	+31
Apr 25 PO	at MIL	41%	110–113	L 101–117	✓correct	−13
Apr 22 PO	vs MIL	71%	117–109	W 123–115	✓correct	±0
Apr 19 PO	vs MIL	71%	119–111	W 117–98	✓correct	+11
Apr 13	at CLE	46%	119–120	W 126–118	✗missed	+9
Apr 11	vs ORL	41%	110–114	L 115–129	✓correct	−10
Apr 10	vs CLE	59%	119–116	W 114–112	✓correct	−1
Apr 8	vs WAS	86%	127–110	W 104–98	✓correct	−11
Apr 6	at DEN	38%	114–118	W 125–120	✗missed	+9
Apr 4	vs UTA	90%	127–107	W 140–112	✓correct	+8
Apr 2	vs CHA	88%	124–106	W 119–105	✓correct	−4
Mar 31	vs SAC	64%	117–112	W 111–109	✓correct	−3
Mar 29	at OKC	19%	110–123	L 111–132	✓correct	−8
Mar 27	at WAS	75%	123–112	W 162–109	✓correct	+42
Mar 26	vs LAL	69%	119–112	L 119–120	✗missed	−8
Mar 24	vs MIN	54%	114–113	W 119–103	✓correct	+15
Mar 22	vs BKN	81%	119–106	W 108–103	✓correct	−8
Mar 20	vs BKN	77%	118–107	W 105–99	✓correct	−5
Mar 19	vs DAL	69%	123–116	W 135–131	✓correct	−3
Mar 17	at MIN	38%	110–114	W 132–130	✗missed	+6
Mar 15	at MIL	33%	113–119	L 119–126	✓correct	−1
Mar 14	at PHI	73%	122–112	W 112–100	✓correct	+2
Mar 11	vs MIL	62%	119–115	W 115–114	✓correct	−3
Mar 10	at CHI	64%	121–115	L 103–121	✗missed	−24
Mar 8	at ATL	56%	123–120	L 118–120	✗missed	−5
Mar 6	at ATL	59%	123–119	L 118–124	✗missed	−10
Mar 4	vs HOU	59%	118–115	W 115–102	✓correct	+10
Mar 2	vs CHI	73%	124–115	W 127–112	✓correct	+6
Feb 28	at MIA	54%	114–112	L 120–125	✗missed	−7
Feb 26	vs TOR	73%	121–112	W 111–91	✓correct	+11
Feb 24	vs DEN	49%	121–122	L 116–125	✓correct	−8
Feb 23	vs LAC	71%	122–114	W 129–111	✓correct	+10
Feb 20	vs MEM	49%	120–121	W 127–113	✗missed	+15
Feb 12	at WAS	64%	122–116	W 134–130	✓correct	−2
Feb 11	vs NYK	59%	118–115	L 115–128	✗missed	−16
Feb 8	at LAL	38%	113–117	L 117–124	✓correct	−3
Feb 6	at LAC	54%	114–112	W 119–112	✓correct	+5
Feb 4	at POR	54%	114–112	L 89–112	✗missed	−25
Feb 3	at UTA	73%	121–111	W 112–111	✓correct	−9
Feb 1	vs ATL	77%	121–110	W 132–127	✓correct	−6
Jan 29	vs DET	69%	119–112	W 133–119	✓correct	+7
Jan 18	vs PHI	75%	117–107	W 115–102	✓correct	+3
Jan 16	at DET	51%	114–113	W 111–100	✓correct	+10
Jan 14	vs CLE	49%	117–118	L 117–127	✓correct	−9
Jan 12	at CLE	31%	116–123	W 108–93	✗missed	+22
Jan 10	vs GSW	71%	117–109	W 108–96	✓correct	+4
Jan 8	vs CHI	67%	120–114	W 129–113	✓correct	+10
Jan 6	at BKN	66%	115–108	W 113–99	✓correct	+7
Jan 4	vs PHX	62%	117–113	W 126–108	✓correct	+14
Jan 2	at MIA	46%	112–113	W 128–115	✗missed	+14
Dec 31	vs MIL	67%	118–112	L 112–120	✗missed	−14
Dec 29	at BOS	33%	113–119	W 123–114	✗missed	+15
Dec 27	at BOS	23%	110–121	L 105–142	✓correct	−26
Dec 26	vs OKC	41%	112–116	L 114–120	✓correct	−2
Dec 23	at GSW	36%	112–117	W 111–105	✗missed	+11
Dec 22	at SAC	36%	115–120	W 122–95	✗missed	+32
Dec 19	at PHX	38%	117–121	W 120–111	✗missed	+13
Dec 15	vs NOP	69%	118–111	W 119–104	✓correct	+8
Dec 13	at PHI	38%	110–114	W 121–107	✗missed	+18
Dec 8	vs CHA	77%	118–107	L 109–113	✗missed	−15
Dec 6	at CHI	36%	118–123	W 132–123	✗missed	+14
Dec 4	at BKN	51%	117–116	L 90–99	✗missed	−10
Dec 3	at TOR	46%	116–117	L 111–122	✓correct	−10
Dec 1	at MEM	31%	115–122	L 121–136	✓correct	−8
Nov 29	vs DET	69%	118–111	L 106–130	✗missed	−31
Nov 27	vs POR	79%	120–108	W 121–114	✓correct	−5
Nov 25	vs NOP	71%	114–106	W 114–110	✓correct	−4
Nov 24	vs WAS	81%	123–110	W 115–103	✓correct	−1
Nov 22	at MIL	38%	111–115	L 117–129	✓correct	−8
Nov 20	at HOU	23%	109–120	L 113–130	✓correct	−6
Nov 18	at TOR	56%	114–111	L 119–130	✗missed	−14
Nov 17	vs MIA	57%	114–112	W 119–110	✓correct	+7
Nov 15	vs MIA	49%	112–113	L 111–124	✓correct	−12
Nov 13	at ORL	41%	110–113	L 90–94	✓correct	−1
Nov 10	vs NYK	46%	110–112	W 132–121	✗missed	+13
Nov 8	at CHA	64%	117–111	L 83–103	✗missed	−26
Nov 6	vs ORL	67%	117–111	W 118–111	✓correct	+1
Nov 4	at DAL	38%	108–112	W 134–127	✗missed	+11
Nov 1	at NOP	54%	112–110	L 118–125	✗missed	−9
Oct 30	vs BOS	36%	106–112	W 135–132	✗missed	+9
Oct 28	at ORL	46%	108–109	L 115–119	✓correct	−3
Oct 27	vs PHI	54%	112–111	L 114–118	✗missed	−5
Oct 25	at NYK	38%	109–113	L 98–123	✓correct	−21
Oct 23	at DET	61%	113–108	W 115–109	✓correct	+1
May 27 PO	vs BOS	53%	109–110	L 102–105	✓correct	−2
May 25 PO	vs BOS	53%	108–109	L 111–114	✓correct	−2
May 23 PO	at BOS	43%	108–109	L 110–126	✓correct	−15
May 21 PO	at BOS	39%	108–111	L 128–133	✓correct	−2
May 19 PO	at NYK	43%	110–111	W 130–109	✗missed	+22
May 17 PO	vs NYK	61%	111–108	W 116–103	✓correct	+10
May 14 PO	at NYK	41%	107–109	L 91–121	✓correct	−28
May 12 PO	vs NYK	59%	111–109	W 121–89	✓correct	+30
May 10 PO	vs NYK	57%	110–109	W 111–106	✓correct	+4
May 8 PO	at NYK	41%	107–109	L 121–130	✓correct	−7
May 6 PO	at NYK	37%	106–110	L 117–121	✓correct	±0
May 2 PO	vs MIL	61%	107–104	W 120–98	✓correct	+19
Apr 30 PO	at MIL	55%	113–108	L 92–115	✗missed	−28
Apr 28 PO	vs MIL	72%	113–104	W 126–113	✓correct	+4
Apr 26 PO	vs MIL	68%	111–104	W 121–118	✓correct	−4
Apr 23 PO	at MIL	51%	110–107	W 125–108	✓correct	+14
Apr 21 PO	at MIL	55%	113–108	L 94–109	✗missed	−20
Apr 14	vs ATL	61%	117–114	W 157–115	✓correct	+39
Apr 12	at CLE	53%	116–112	L 120–129	✗missed	−13
Apr 9	at TOR	74%	127–112	W 140–123	✓correct	+2
Apr 7	vs MIA	57%	112–111	W 117–115	✓correct	+1
Apr 5	vs OKC	65%	117–112	W 126–112	✓correct	+9
Apr 3	at BKN	61%	118–110	L 111–115	✗missed	−12
Apr 1	vs BKN	65%	114–109	W 133–111	✓correct	+17
Mar 29	vs LAL	61%	118–115	W 109–90	✓correct	+16
Mar 27	at CHI	47%	117–116	L 99–125	✗missed	−27
Mar 25	at LAC	39%	113–116	W 133–116	✗missed	+20
Mar 24	at LAL	41%	116–118	L 145–150	✓correct	−3
Mar 22	at GSW	37%	114–118	W 123–111	✗missed	+16
Mar 20	at DET	65%	119–109	W 122–103	✓correct	+9
Mar 18	vs CLE	61%	115–112	L 103–108	✗missed	−8
Mar 16	vs BKN	57%	113–112	W 121–100	✓correct	+20
Mar 13	vs CHI	61%	117–114	L 129–132	✗missed	−6
Mar 12	at OKC	28%	112–121	W 121–111	✗missed	+19
Mar 10	at ORL	37%	109–113	W 111–97	✗missed	+18
Mar 7	vs MIN	53%	114–115	L 111–113	✓correct	−1
Mar 5	at DAL	41%	117–119	W 137–120	✗missed	+19
Mar 3	at SAS	61%	123–115	L 105–117	✗missed	−20
Mar 1	at NOP	32%	110–117	L 102–129	✓correct	−20
Feb 28	vs NOP	59%	118–116	W 123–114	✓correct	+7
Feb 26	vs TOR	65%	121–116	L 122–130	✗missed	−13
Feb 25	vs DAL	59%	118–116	W 133–111	✓correct	+20
Feb 22	vs DET	78%	123–110	W 129–115	✓correct	+1
Feb 14	at TOR	55%	121–116	W 127–125	✓correct	−3
Feb 12	at CHA	63%	123–114	L 102–111	✗missed	−18
Feb 10	at NYK	41%	111–113	W 125–111	✗missed	+16
Feb 8	vs GSW	65%	121–116	L 109–131	✗missed	−27
Feb 6	vs HOU	67%	120–114	W 132–129	✓correct	−3
Feb 4	at CHA	61%	122–114	W 115–99	✓correct	+8
Feb 2	vs SAC	59%	118–116	L 122–133	✗missed	−13
Feb 1	at NYK	37%	110–114	L 105–109	✓correct	±0
Jan 30	at BOS	35%	114–119	L 124–129	✓correct	±0
Jan 28	vs MEM	72%	120–111	W 116–110	✓correct	−3
Jan 26	vs PHX	57%	116–115	W 133–131	✓correct	+1
Jan 25	vs PHI	53%	114–115	W 134–122	✗missed	+13
Jan 23	vs DEN	53%	114–115	L 109–114	✓correct	−4
Jan 21	at PHX	34%	115–121	L 110–117	✓correct	−1
Jan 19	at POR	63%	123–114	L 115–118	✗missed	−12
Jan 18	at SAC	43%	117–118	W 126–121	✗missed	+6
Jan 15	at UTA	41%	117–119	L 105–132	✓correct	−25
Jan 14	at DEN	35%	112–117	L 109–117	✓correct	−3
Jan 12	at ATL	47%	121–120	W 126–108	✓correct	+17
Jan 10	vs WAS	76%	123–111	W 112–104	✓correct	−4
Jan 8	vs BOS	53%	118–119	W 133–131	✗missed	+3
Jan 6	vs BOS	57%	118–117	L 101–118	✗missed	−18
Jan 5	vs ATL	65%	123–118	W 150–116	✓correct	+29
Jan 3	vs MIL	47%	118–122	W 142–130	✗missed	+16
Jan 1	at MIL	39%	117–120	W 122–113	✗missed	+12
Dec 30	vs NYK	59%	121–119	W 140–126	✓correct	+12
Dec 28	at CHI	39%	115–118	W 120–104	✗missed	+19
Dec 26	at HOU	30%	112–120	W 123–117	✗missed	+14
Dec 23	vs ORL	53%	120–121	L 110–117	✓correct	−6
Dec 21	at MEM	49%	116–114	L 103–116	✗missed	−15
Dec 20	vs CHA	70%	123–115	W 144–113	✓correct	+23
Dec 18	vs LAC	49%	116–119	L 127–151	✓correct	−21
Dec 16	at MIN	30%	110–118	L 109–127	✓correct	−10
Dec 15	at WAS	69%	124–112	L 123–137	✗missed	−26
Dec 13	at MIL	43%	116–117	L 126–140	✓correct	−13
Dec 11	at DET	67%	122–111	W 131–123	✓correct	−3
Dec 7	at MIL	47%	117–116	W 128–119	✓correct	+8
Dec 4	vs BOS	53%	120–121	W 122–112	✗missed	+11
Dec 2	at MIA	37%	115–119	W 144–129	✗missed	+19
Nov 30	at MIA	37%	114–118	L 132–142	✓correct	−6
Nov 27	vs POR	70%	122–114	L 110–114	✗missed	−12
Nov 24	vs DET	68%	124–117	W 136–113	✓correct	+16
Nov 22	vs TOR	49%	120–123	L 131–132	✓correct	+2
Nov 21	at ATL	41%	118–120	W 157–152	✗missed	+7
Nov 19	vs ORL	61%	121–118	L 116–128	✗missed	−15
Nov 14	at PHI	37%	113–117	W 132–126	✗missed	+10
Nov 12	at PHI	41%	114–116	L 126–137	✓correct	−9
Nov 9	vs MIL	51%	116–118	W 126–124	✗missed	+4
Nov 8	vs UTA	57%	117–116	W 134–118	✓correct	+15
Nov 6	vs SAS	65%	120–115	W 152–111	✓correct	+36
Nov 4	vs CHA	57%	115–114	L 124–125	✗missed	−2
Nov 3	vs CLE	59%	117–115	W 121–116	✓correct	+3
Nov 1	at BOS	34%	112–118	L 104–155	✓correct	−45
Oct 30	vs CHI	57%	118–117	L 105–112	✗missed	−8
Oct 28	at CLE	30%	110–118	W 125–113	✗missed	+20
Oct 25	vs WAS	49%	118–121	W 143–120	✗missed	+26
Apr 9	at NYK	35%	115–121	W 141–136	✗missed	+11
Apr 7	vs DET	65%	120–114	L 115–122	✗missed	−13
Apr 5	vs NYK	45%	121–123	L 129–138	✓correct	−7
Apr 2	at CLE	20%	111–124	L 105–115	✓correct	+3
Mar 31	vs OKC	37%	116–121	W 121–117	✗missed	+9
Mar 29	vs MIL	26%	115–125	L 136–149	✓correct	−3
Mar 27	vs DAL	45%	118–120	L 104–127	✓correct	−21
Mar 25	at ATL	32%	116–123	L 130–143	✓correct	−6
Mar 24	at BOS	22%	112–124	L 95–120	✓correct	−13
Mar 22	at TOR	30%	114–122	W 118–114	✗missed	+12
Mar 20	at CHA	47%	115–116	L 109–115	✓correct	−5
Mar 18	vs PHI	37%	116–121	L 121–141	✓correct	−15
Mar 16	at MIL	17%	111–126	W 139–123	✗missed	+31
Mar 13	at DET	70%	124–116	L 97–117	✗missed	−28
Mar 11	at DET	65%	120–114	W 121–115	✓correct	±0
Mar 9	vs HOU	81%	122–108	W 134–125	✓correct	−5
Mar 6	vs PHI	42%	115–118	L 143–147	✓correct	−1
Mar 5	at CHI	35%	112–118	W 125–122	✗missed	+9
Mar 2	at SAS	70%	121–113	L 99–110	✗missed	−19
Feb 28	at DAL	32%	114–121	W 124–122	✗missed	+9
Feb 25	at ORL	40%	113–117	W 121–108	✗missed	+17
Feb 23	vs BOS	35%	113–119	L 138–142	✓correct	+2
Feb 15	vs CHI	42%	115–118	W 117–113	✗missed	+7
Feb 13	vs UTA	40%	118–122	L 117–123	✓correct	−2
Feb 11	at WAS	26%	112–122	L 113–127	✓correct	−4
Feb 10	vs PHX	35%	113–119	L 104–117	✓correct	−7
Feb 8	at MIA	40%	112–116	L 111–116	✓correct	−1
Feb 5	vs CLE	30%	112–120	L 103–122	✓correct	−11
Feb 3	vs SAC	40%	119–123	W 107–104	✗missed	+7
Feb 2	vs LAL	42%	119–122	L 111–112	✓correct	+2
Jan 29	at MEM	35%	111–117	L 100–112	✓correct	−6
Jan 27	vs MIL	32%	115–122	L 131–141	✓correct	−3
Jan 25	at ORL	53%	116–115	L 120–126	✗missed	−7
Jan 24	vs CHI	30%	112–120	W 116–110	✗missed	+14
Jan 21	at PHX	45%	113–115	L 107–112	✓correct	−3
Jan 20	at DEN	37%	111–116	L 111–134	✓correct	−18
Jan 18	at OKC	32%	113–120	L 106–126	✓correct	−13
Jan 16	at MIL	37%	111–116	L 119–132	✓correct	−8
Jan 14	vs MEM	35%	114–120	L 112–130	✓correct	−12
Jan 13	vs ATL	60%	116–112	L 111–113	✗missed	−6
Jan 11	at NYK	35%	110–116	L 113–119	✓correct	±0
Jan 8	vs CHA	76%	120–109	W 116–111	✓correct	−6
Jan 6	vs POR	53%	116–115	W 108–99	✓correct	+8
Jan 4	at PHI	32%	109–116	L 126–129	✓correct	+4
Jan 2	vs TOR	47%	114–115	W 122–114	✗missed	+9
Dec 31	vs LAC	40%	112–116	W 131–130	✗missed	+5
Dec 29	vs CLE	37%	108–113	W 135–126	✗missed	+14
Dec 27	vs ATL	45%	116–118	W 129–114	✗missed	+17
Dec 26	at NOP	35%	110–116	L 93–113	✓correct	−14
Dec 23	at MIA	47%	110–111	W 111–108	✗missed	+4
Dec 21	at BOS	35%	112–118	W 117–112	✗missed	+11
Dec 18	vs NYK	30%	112–120	L 106–109	✓correct	+5
Dec 16	at CLE	35%	108–114	L 112–118	✓correct	±0
Dec 14	vs GSW	35%	113–119	W 125–119	✗missed	+12
Dec 12	vs MIA	35%	112–118	L 82–87	✓correct	+1
Dec 10	vs BKN	37%	116–121	L 133–136	✓correct	+2
Dec 9	vs WAS	53%	116–115	W 121–111	✓correct	+9
Dec 7	at MIN	47%	112–113	L 115–121	✓correct	−5
Dec 5	at GSW	40%	111–115	W 112–104	✗missed	+12
Dec 4	at POR	53%	116–115	L 100–116	✗missed	−17
Dec 2	at UTA	35%	114–120	L 119–139	✓correct	−14
Nov 30	at SAC	47%	118–119	L 114–137	✓correct	−22
Nov 28	at LAL	60%	117–113	W 116–115	✓correct	−3
Nov 27	at LAC	47%	112–113	L 100–114	✓correct	−13
Nov 25	vs BKN	37%	111–116	W 128–117	✗missed	+16
Nov 23	vs MIN	45%	114–116	L 101–115	✓correct	−12
Nov 21	vs ORL	68%	118–111	W 123–102	✓correct	+14
Nov 19	vs ORL	72%	118–109	W 114–113	✓correct	−8
Nov 18	at HOU	70%	119–111	W 99–91	✓correct	±0
Nov 16	at CHA	47%	110–111	W 125–113	✗missed	+13
Nov 12	vs TOR	40%	113–117	W 118–104	✗missed	+18
Nov 9	vs DEN	32%	112–119	L 119–122	✓correct	+4
Nov 7	vs NOP	30%	111–119	W 129–122	✗missed	+15
Nov 4	vs MIA	40%	113–117	W 101–99	✗missed	+6
Oct 31	at BKN	40%	115–119	L 109–116	✓correct	−3
Oct 29	at BKN	37%	115–120	W 125–116	✗missed	+14
Oct 28	at WAS	35%	113–119	W 127–117	✗missed	+16
Oct 26	at CHI	40%	112–116	L 109–124	✓correct	−11
Oct 24	at PHI	26%	109–119	L 106–120	✓correct	−4
Oct 22	vs DET	63%	118–113	W 124–115	✓correct	+4
Oct 21	vs SAS	35%	112–118	L 134–137	✓correct	+3
Oct 19	vs WAS	45%	114–116	L 107–114	✓correct	−5

Surprise games

All IND surprises

Across every graded season. The percentage is the pregame chance the forecast gave the team that won.

Most unexpected IND wins

14%IND beat OKC117–114Jan 23, 2025-26 · forecast OKC123–107 · missed margin by 19
17%IND beat MIL139–123Mar 16, 2022-23 · forecast MIL126–111 · missed margin by 31
19%IND beat ORL128–126Mar 23, 2025-26 · forecast ORL122–109 · missed margin by 15
20%IND beat NYK137–134Feb 10, 2025-26 · forecast NYK118–106 · missed margin by 15
21%IND beat OKC111–110Jun 5, 2024-25 · playoffs · forecast OKC116–104 · missed margin by 13

Most unexpected IND losses

19%WAS beat IND108–89Dec 14, 2025-26 · forecast IND122–109 · missed margin by 32
23%CHA beat IND113–109Dec 8, 2024-25 · forecast IND118–107 · missed margin by 15
30%POR beat IND114–110Nov 27, 2023-24 · forecast IND122–114 · missed margin by 12
30%DET beat IND117–97Mar 13, 2022-23 · forecast IND124–116 · missed margin by 28
30%SAS beat IND110–99Mar 2, 2022-23 · forecast IND121–113 · missed margin by 19

Largest margin misses

67%BOS beat IND155–104Nov 1, 2023-24 · forecast BOS118–112 · missed margin by 45
75%IND beat WAS162–109Mar 27, 2024-25 · forecast IND123–112 · missed margin by 42
61%IND beat ATL157–115Apr 14, 2023-24 · forecast IND117–114 · missed margin by 39
65%IND beat SAS152–111Nov 6, 2023-24 · forecast IND120–115 · missed margin by 36
19%WAS beat IND108–89Dec 14, 2025-26 · forecast IND122–109 · missed margin by 32

Definitions

Expected wins: The sum of the team's pregame win probabilities over the games in the sample (home: the stored home win probability; road: one minus it).
Wins vs expectation: Actual wins minus expected wins. It describes results relative to the forecasts, not why they differed.
Margin error: The team's actual margin minus its forecast margin, in points. Positive means the team did better than forecast.
Error variability: The sample standard deviation of margin errors. Higher means the forecasts for this team's games were less consistent.
Winner picked: The share of the team's games in which the forecast winner won, whichever team that was. Teams play different mixes of close and lopsided games, so this alone is not a fair measure of how hard a team is to forecast.
Average margin miss: The mean absolute margin error. This is the headline measure of how hard a team's games were for this model to forecast.
Average margin error: The mean signed margin error. Consistently positive means the model underrated the team in this sample; negative, overrated.
Brier score: The mean squared difference between the team's pregame win probability and the result (1 for a win, 0 for a loss). It rewards confident correct forecasts and penalises confident wrong ones.
Intervals and samples: Ranges are 90% bootstrap intervals (1,000 resamples of the team's games). Under 20 games no ranking is shown; 20 to 59 games is exploratory; 60 or more is roughly a full season.

More on how forecasts are made and tested: Methodology.

Upcoming

Recent results

Predictability

2026-27 (in progress)

2025-26

2024-25

2023-24

2022-23

2022-23 to 2026-27

Surprise games

Most unexpected IND wins

Most unexpected IND losses

Largest margin misses

Recent results the forecast got wrong

Definitions