2025-26 · Playoffs · Final
New York Knicks at San Antonio Spurs
Friday, June 5, 2026 · tip-off 8:30 PM ET
NYK 3–3@SAS 3–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYK New York Knicks | 108 | 105 | −3 |
| SAS San Antonio Spurs (home) | 105 | 104 | −1 |
Forecast: New York Knicks to win, 67% win probability, projected margin 3.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtNo saved inputs are stored with this game's forecast.
The result against the forecast
2025-26 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | NYK | SAS |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 105 | 104 |
| Field goals | 37–89 · 41.6% | 37–78 · 47.4% |
| Three-pointers | 15–38 · 39.5% | 11–29 · 37.9% |
| Free throws | 16–21 · 76.2% | 19–27 · 70.4% |
| Rebounds | 44 | 42 |
| Assists | 29 | 22 |
| Turnovers | 12 | 16 |
| Steals | 11 | 7 |
| Blocks | 6 | 7 |
How the model does with these teams over time: New York Knicks · San Antonio Spurs
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (SAS) | −3 | −1 | +2 |
| Total points | 213 | 209 | −4 |
| NYK points | 108 | 105 | −3 |
| SAS points | 105 | 104 | −1 |
Injury report
Official NBA injury report, 2026-06-05 17:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.
New York Knicks
No players listed.
San Antonio Spurs
No players listed.
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 3 2025-26 | NYK at SAS | NYK 105 – 95 SAS |
| Mar 1 2025-26 | SAS at NYK | SAS 89 – 114 NYK |
| Dec 31 2025-26 | NYK at SAS | NYK 132 – 134 SAS |
| Mar 19 2024-25 | NYK at SAS | NYK 105 – 120 SAS |
| Dec 25 2024-25 | SAS at NYK | SAS 114 – 117 NYK |