2025-26 · Regular Season · Final
San Antonio Spurs at Orlando Magic
Wednesday, December 3, 2025 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET
SAS 1–0@ORL 1–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAS San Antonio Spurs | 112 | 114 | +2 |
| ORL Orlando Magic (home) | 123 | 112 | −11 |
Forecast: Orlando Magic to win, 78% win probability, projected margin 11.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | SAS | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1534 | 1575 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +111 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | +5.3 | +5.2 |
| Games played this season | 20 | 21 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 118.9 | 120.8 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 116.8 | 110.6 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 100.6 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 41.8 | 0.0 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | Yes | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingSAS1534ORL1575
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
SAS1534
- Ended last season at 1417 → started this one at 1438
- First 10 games: +68.6
- Last 10 games: +27.6
- LGSW120–125−7.2
- LGSW108–109−3.9
- WSAC123–110+6.8
- WMEM111–101+6.3
- WATL135–126+8.3
- L@PHX102–111−7.0
- W@POR115–102+15.5
- W@DEN139–136+10.1
- L@MIN112–125−6.6
- WMEM126–119+5.3
ORL1575
- Ended last season at 1506 → started this one at 1505
- First 11 games: −14.5
- Last 10 games: +84.6
- W@NYK124–107+25.6
- WBKN105–98+2.1
- L@HOU113–117−3.0
- WGSW121–113+9.2
- WLAC129–101+14.5
- WNYK133–121+10.6
- L@BOS129–138−6.8
- W@PHI144–103+21.2
- W@DET112–109+7.9
- WCHI125–120+3.3
Season scoring marginSAS+5.3ORL+5.2
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
SAS+5.3
Scores 119.2, allows 113.8 over 20 games: +5.3 a game.
ORL+5.2
Scores 119.5, allows 114.3 over 21 games: +5.2 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10SAS118.9ORL120.8
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 115.0).
SAS118.9scored, +3.9 vs league
| Factor | SAS | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 55.7% | 54.6% | +1.6 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.1% | 12.5% | +1.9 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.223 | 0.224 | −0.0 | |
| Everything else | +0.4 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 3 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
ORL120.8scored, +5.8 vs league
| Factor | ORL | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 55.1% | 54.6% | +0.7 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.0% | 12.5% | +2.0 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.267 | 0.224 | +1.3 | |
| Everything else | +1.9 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 2 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Defensive rating, last 10SAS116.8ORL110.6
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 115.0).
SAS116.8allowed, +1.8 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 55.6% | 54.6% | −1.5 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.1% | 12.5% | −0.5 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.181 | 0.224 | +1.2 | |
| Everything else | −1.0 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 3 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
ORL110.6allowed, −4.4 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 54.3% | 54.6% | +0.4 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 13.9% | 12.5% | +2.0 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.222 | 0.224 | +0.0 | |
| Everything else | +1.9 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 2 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Pace, last 10average 100.6
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
SAS 99.9 and ORL 101.2 → average 100.6 (league 2025-26 to date: 101.0)
Rotation points missingSAS41.8ORL0.0
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
SAS41.8pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | 28.5 | 37.3 | 2 |
| Stephon Castle | 13.3 | 27.7 | 3 |
Source: official injury report, 2025-12-03 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.
ORL0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2025-12-03 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.
RestSAS1 daysORL2 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
SAS1day, back-to-back
Last played Dec 2 against MEM.
ORL2days
Last played Dec 1 against CHI.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
SAS
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2 | MEM | 126–119 | 42-92 | 18-39 | 24-31 | 6 | – | 127.3 | 119.0 | 99.5 |
| Nov 30 | @MIN | 112–125 | 44-84 | 8-33 | 16-19 | 10 | – | 117.9 | 133.0 | 94.5 |
| Nov 28 | @DEN | 139–136 | 46-94 | 17-42 | 30-32 | 8 | – | 136.3 | 136.0 | 101.0 |
| Nov 26 | @POR | 115–102 | 41-101 | 11-33 | 22-25 | 9 | 20 | 112.7 | 101.0 | 101.5 |
| Nov 23 | @PHX | 102–111 | 32-77 | 10-34 | 28-34 | 19 | 14 | 106.3 | 113.3 | 97.0 |
| Nov 20 | ATL | 135–126 | 48-91 | 17-40 | 22-30 | 10 | 10 | 131.1 | 123.5 | 102.5 |
| Nov 18 | MEM | 111–101 | 42-87 | 16-42 | 11-13 | 9 | 4 | 114.4 | 104.1 | 97.0 |
| Nov 16 | SAC | 123–110 | 47-87 | 14-38 | 15-18 | 14 | 9 | 119.4 | 108.9 | 102.0 |
| Nov 14 | GSW | 108–109 | 39-85 | 14-38 | 16-19 | 20 | 11 | 110.2 | 112.4 | 97.5 |
| Nov 12 | GSW | 120–125 | 46-94 | 14-39 | 14-16 | 20 | 13 | 113.2 | 116.8 | 106.5 |
ORL
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1 | CHI | 125–120 | 45-88 | 9-33 | 26-33 | 17 | – | 116.8 | 112.1 | 107.0 |
| Nov 28 | @DET | 112–109 | 40-97 | 5-30 | 27-32 | 13 | – | 106.7 | 104.8 | 104.5 |
| Nov 25 | @PHI | 144–103 | 54-101 | 13-34 | 23-28 | 11 | 15 | 137.1 | 96.3 | 106.0 |
| Nov 23 | @BOS | 129–138 | 47-100 | 16-38 | 19-24 | 7 | 18 | 133.0 | 142.3 | 97.0 |
| Nov 22 | NYK | 133–121 | 47-85 | 13-33 | 26-30 | 13 | 11 | 133.0 | 119.8 | 100.5 |
| Nov 20 | LAC | 129–101 | 45-94 | 18-34 | 21-24 | 10 | 12 | 122.9 | 96.2 | 105.0 |
| Nov 18 | GSW | 121–113 | 43-85 | 8-32 | 27-29 | 14 | 10 | 116.3 | 110.8 | 103.0 |
| Nov 16 | @HOU | 113–117 | 38-91 | 12-37 | 25-34 | 8 | 9 | 106.6 | 111.4 | 95.5 |
| Nov 14 | BKN | 105–98 | 36-78 | 15-39 | 18-21 | 19 | 7 | 114.1 | 106.5 | 92.0 |
| Nov 12 | @NYK | 124–107 | 42-86 | 12-33 | 28-33 | 15 | 12 | 121.6 | 105.9 | 101.5 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2025-26 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | SAS | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 114 | 112 |
| Field goals | 42–91 · 46.2% | 45–99 · 45.5% |
| Three-pointers | 13–38 · 34.2% | 9–27 · 33.3% |
| Free throws | 17–24 · 70.8% | 13–19 · 68.4% |
| Rebounds | 52 | 48 |
| Assists | 20 | 27 |
| Turnovers | 19 | 10 |
| Steals | 5 | 11 |
| Blocks | 5 | 3 |
How the model does with these teams over time: San Antonio Spurs · Orlando Magic
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (ORL) | +11 | −2 | −13 |
| Total points | 235 | 226 | −9 |
| SAS points | 112 | 114 | +2 |
| ORL points | 123 | 112 | −11 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 1 2024-25 | ORL at SAS | ORL 116 – 105 SAS |
| Feb 8 2024-25 | SAS at ORL | SAS 111 – 112 ORL |
| Feb 8 2023-24 | SAS at ORL | SAS 111 – 127 ORL |
| Jan 31 2023-24 | ORL at SAS | ORL 108 – 98 SAS |
| Mar 14 2022-23 | ORL at SAS | ORL 114 – 132 SAS |