2025-26 · Playoffs · Final

San Antonio Spurs at New York Knicks

Monday, June 8, 2026 · tip-off 8:30 PM ET

SAS 3–4@NYK 3–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
SAS San Antonio Spurs	106	115	+9
NYK New York Knicks (home)	112	111	−1

Forecast: New York Knicks to win, 70% win probability, projected margin 6.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

No saved inputs are stored with this game's forecast.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

30%

pregame chance the forecast gave SAS, the winner

the forecast favored NYK

10 pts

margin miss

forecast +6, actual −4 for NYK

88th

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

605th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 1.19 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	SAS	NYK
Final score	115	111
Field goals	39–84 · 46.4%	40–88 · 45.5%
Three-pointers	12–34 · 35.3%	13–37 · 35.1%
Free throws	25–32 · 78.1%	18–22 · 81.8%
Rebounds	37	46
Assists	28	18
Turnovers	8	13
Steals	7	4
Blocks	7	6

How the model does with these teams over time: San Antonio Spurs · New York Knicks

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (NYK)	+6	−4	−10
Total points	218	226	+8
SAS points	106	115	+9
NYK points	112	111	−1

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-06-08 17:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.