Western Conference · 2026-27

Sacramento Kings SAC

1–9

2026-27 record

1336

Elo rating

with the forecast of Nov 8

107.8

Offensive rating

last 10 games

120.9

Defensive rating

last 10, lower is better

101.7

Pace

possessions per game

Hover the ball to see a season.

Every graded SAC game, one dot each, oldest at the center. 206 of 345 forecasts picked the winner (colored dots).

Elo rating, recent games

Pregame Elo stored with each of SAC's last 82 forecasts. Dashed: 1500, the long-run average.

Elo rating recorded with each team's most recent forecast. Higher is stronger; 1500 is the long-run average. SAC ranks 26 of 30.

Upcoming

Schedule

Nov 10 10:00 PM ET

ORL Orlando Magic 2–7 –

@SAC Sacramento Kings 1–9 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 13 10:00 PM ET

POR Portland Trail Blazers 6–3 –

@SAC Sacramento Kings 1–9 –

Forecast coming Details

Recent results

Predictability

How closely the forecasts tracked SAC games. A team can be hard for this model to forecast whether it is good or bad: misses come from the model's limits, roster changes, missing information and ordinary game-to-game variation. Compare all 30 teams

2026-27 (in progress)

Small sample: 10 games. These figures are a running log, not a measurement, and no ranking is shown.

11.5 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 6.9 to 16.2

−6.7

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -13.1 to 0.1

13.7 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.7

80%

winner picked

10 games involving SAC

1 / 3.3

actual / expected wins

gap −2.3

0.170

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 10 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	SAC win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 8	vs MIA	35%	118–123	L 108–114	✓correct	−1
Nov 6	vs SAS	23%	111–121	L 109–124	✓correct	−5
Nov 4	vs LAL	23%	112–124	L 103–116	✓correct	−1
Nov 2	at DAL	26%	114–123	W 115–100	✗missed	+24
Oct 31	at MEM	41%	119–122	L 105–136	✓correct	−28
Oct 29	at NOP	44%	120–122	L 120–132	✓correct	−10
Oct 27	at SAS	15%	108–123	L 103–130	✓correct	−12
Oct 25	vs MEM	56%	119–117	L 112–123	✗missed	−13
Oct 23	vs POR	36%	112–117	L 120–128	✓correct	−3
Oct 21	at LAC	31%	111–118	L 96–121	✓correct	−18

2025-26

Across 82 graded games, SAC finished an average of 3.3 points worse than the forecast margin (90% interval -5.8 to -0.8).

11.6 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.1 to 13.3; 17th smallest of 30

−3.3

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -5.8 to -0.8

14.4 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.4

73%

winner picked

82 games involving SAC

22 / 27.4

actual / expected wins

gap −5.4

0.203

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	SAC win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 12	at POR	17%	105–119	L 110–122	✓correct	+2
Apr 10	vs GSW	42%	114–117	W 124–118	✗missed	+9
Apr 7	at GSW	36%	111–116	L 105–110	✓correct	±0
Apr 5	vs LAC	27%	110–119	L 109–138	✓correct	−20
Apr 3	vs NOP	44%	113–115	W 117–113	✗missed	+6
Apr 1	at TOR	22%	108–119	W 123–115	✗missed	+19
Mar 29	at BKN	56%	113–111	L 99–116	✗missed	−19
Mar 28	at ATL	19%	110–123	L 113–123	✓correct	+3
Mar 26	at ORL	19%	112–125	L 117–121	✓correct	+9
Mar 24	at CHA	13%	106–123	L 90–134	✓correct	−27
Mar 22	vs BKN	64%	116–111	W 126–122	✓correct	−1
Mar 19	vs PHI	44%	115–117	L 118–139	✓correct	−19
Mar 17	vs SAS	19%	112–125	L 104–132	✓correct	−15
Mar 15	vs UTA	56%	116–114	W 116–111	✓correct	+3
Mar 14	at LAC	14%	109–125	W 118–109	✗missed	+25
Mar 11	vs CHA	19%	106–119	L 109–117	✓correct	+5
Mar 10	vs IND	53%	118–117	W 114–109	✓correct	+4
Mar 8	vs CHI	42%	115–118	W 126–110	✗missed	+19
Mar 5	vs NOP	34%	113–119	L 123–133	✓correct	−4
Mar 3	vs PHX	39%	108–112	L 103–114	✓correct	−7
Mar 1	at LAL	19%	109–122	L 104–128	✓correct	−11
Feb 26	at DAL	31%	115–122	W 130–121	✗missed	+16
Feb 25	at HOU	19%	104–117	L 97–128	✓correct	−18
Feb 23	at MEM	29%	115–123	W 123–114	✗missed	+17
Feb 21	at SAS	8%	103–124	L 122–139	✓correct	+4
Feb 19	vs ORL	31%	108–115	L 94–131	✓correct	−30
Feb 11	at UTA	41%	113–116	L 93–121	✓correct	−25
Feb 9	at NOP	39%	111–115	L 94–120	✓correct	−22
Feb 7	vs CLE	27%	107–116	L 126–132	✓correct	+3
Feb 6	vs LAC	36%	110–115	L 111–114	✓correct	+2
Feb 4	vs MEM	47%	114–115	L 125–129	✓correct	−3
Feb 1	at WAS	61%	114–110	L 112–116	✗missed	−8
Jan 30	at BOS	29%	107–115	L 93–112	✓correct	−11
Jan 29	at PHI	36%	113–118	L 111–113	✓correct	+3
Jan 27	at NYK	26%	107–116	L 87–103	✓correct	−7
Jan 25	at DET	24%	108–118	L 116–139	✓correct	−13
Jan 23	at CLE	31%	112–119	L 118–123	✓correct	+2
Jan 21	vs TOR	42%	111–114	L 109–122	✓correct	−10
Jan 20	vs MIA	44%	116–118	L 117–130	✓correct	−11
Jan 18	vs POR	44%	112–114	L 110–117	✓correct	−5
Jan 16	vs WAS	64%	117–112	W 128–115	✓correct	+8
Jan 14	vs NYK	31%	110–117	W 112–101	✗missed	+18
Jan 12	vs LAL	36%	108–113	W 124–112	✗missed	+17
Jan 11	vs HOU	22%	106–117	W 111–98	✗missed	+24
Jan 9	at GSW	20%	108–120	L 103–137	✓correct	−22
Jan 6	vs DAL	39%	115–119	L 98–100	✓correct	+2
Jan 4	vs MIL	47%	113–114	L 98–115	✓correct	−16
Jan 2	at PHX	20%	107–119	L 102–129	✓correct	−15
Jan 1	vs BOS	29%	110–118	L 106–120	✓correct	−6
Dec 30	at LAC	24%	105–115	L 90–131	✓correct	−31
Dec 28	at LAL	31%	110–117	L 101–125	✓correct	−17
Dec 27	vs DAL	36%	114–119	W 113–107	✗missed	+11
Dec 23	vs DET	24%	112–122	L 127–136	✓correct	+1
Dec 21	vs HOU	24%	109–119	W 125–124	✗missed	+11
Dec 20	vs POR	39%	115–119	L 93–98	✓correct	−1
Dec 18	at POR	39%	115–119	L 133–134	✓correct	+3
Dec 14	at MIN	19%	109–122	L 103–117	✓correct	−1
Dec 11	vs DEN	20%	111–123	L 105–136	✓correct	−19
Dec 8	at IND	39%	113–117	L 105–116	✓correct	−7
Dec 6	at MIA	19%	111–124	W 127–111	✗missed	+29
Dec 3	at HOU	11%	106–124	L 95–121	✓correct	−8
Nov 30	vs MEM	42%	114–117	L 107–115	✓correct	−5
Nov 28	at UTA	47%	119–120	L 119–128	✓correct	−8
Nov 26	vs PHX	34%	114–120	L 100–112	✓correct	−6
Nov 24	vs MIN	22%	114–125	W 117–112	✗missed	+16
Nov 22	at DEN	13%	111–128	W 128–123	✗missed	+22
Nov 20	at MEM	53%	116–115	L 96–137	✗missed	−42
Nov 19	at OKC	7%	106–129	L 99–113	✓correct	+9
Nov 16	at SAS	31%	114–121	L 110–123	✓correct	−6
Nov 14	at MIN	17%	113–127	L 110–124	✓correct	±0
Nov 12	vs ATL	31%	113–120	L 100–133	✓correct	−26
Nov 11	vs DEN	29%	113–121	L 108–122	✓correct	−6
Nov 9	vs MIN	47%	118–119	L 117–144	✓correct	−26
Nov 7	vs OKC	36%	113–118	L 101–132	✓correct	−26
Nov 5	vs GSW	42%	112–115	W 121–116	✗missed	+8
Nov 3	at DEN	39%	112–116	L 124–130	✓correct	−2
Nov 1	at MIL	36%	113–118	W 135–133	✗missed	+7
Oct 29	at CHI	31%	113–120	L 113–126	✓correct	−6
Oct 28	at OKC	29%	108–116	L 101–107	✓correct	+2
Oct 26	vs LAL	64%	112–107	L 120–127	✗missed	−12
Oct 24	vs UTA	64%	118–113	W 105–104	✓correct	−4
Oct 22	at PHX	58%	116–113	L 116–120	✗missed	−7

2024-25

11.8 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.1 to 13.4; 23rd smallest of 30

−1.5

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -4.2 to 1.2

15.2 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

57%

winner picked

82 games involving SAC

40 / 44.9

actual / expected wins

gap −4.9

0.248

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	SAC win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 13	vs PHX	71%	116–108	W 109–98	✓correct	+3
Apr 11	vs LAC	36%	109–115	L 100–101	✓correct	+5
Apr 9	vs DEN	49%	114–115	L 116–124	✓correct	−7
Apr 7	at DET	33%	111–117	W 127–117	✗missed	+16
Apr 6	at CLE	31%	112–119	W 120–113	✗missed	+14
Apr 4	at CHA	66%	115–108	W 125–102	✓correct	+16
Apr 2	at WAS	66%	121–114	L 111–116	✗missed	−12
Mar 31	at IND	36%	112–117	L 109–111	✓correct	+3
Mar 29	at ORL	51%	111–110	L 91–121	✗missed	−31
Mar 27	vs POR	49%	112–113	W 128–107	✗missed	+22
Mar 25	vs OKC	29%	110–119	L 105–121	✓correct	−7
Mar 24	vs BOS	27%	109–119	L 95–113	✓correct	−8
Mar 22	vs MIL	46%	114–116	L 108–114	✓correct	−4
Mar 20	vs CHI	67%	121–115	L 116–128	✗missed	−18
Mar 19	vs CLE	34%	111–118	W 123–119	✗missed	+11
Mar 17	vs MEM	62%	118–114	W 132–122	✓correct	+6
Mar 14	at PHX	59%	117–113	L 106–122	✗missed	−20
Mar 13	at GSW	46%	113–114	L 104–130	✓correct	−25
Mar 10	vs NYK	67%	113–107	L 104–133	✗missed	−35
Mar 9	at LAC	41%	107–110	L 110–111	✓correct	+2
Mar 7	vs SAS	73%	122–113	W 127–109	✓correct	+9
Mar 5	at DEN	33%	112–118	L 110–116	✓correct	±0
Mar 3	at DAL	51%	115–114	W 122–98	✓correct	+23
Mar 1	at HOU	38%	110–114	W 113–103	✗missed	+14
Feb 26	at UTA	64%	121–115	W 118–101	✓correct	+11
Feb 24	vs CHA	73%	117–108	W 130–88	✓correct	+33
Feb 21	vs GSW	64%	118–113	L 108–132	✗missed	−29
Feb 13	at NOP	75%	125–114	L 133–140	✗missed	−18
Feb 12	at NOP	71%	123–114	W 119–111	✓correct	−1
Feb 10	at DAL	38%	118–122	W 129–128	✗missed	+5
Feb 8	vs NOP	73%	123–114	W 123–118	✓correct	−4
Feb 6	at POR	46%	114–115	L 102–108	✓correct	−5
Feb 5	vs ORL	69%	118–111	L 111–130	✗missed	−26
Feb 3	at MIN	33%	114–120	W 116–114	✗missed	+8
Feb 1	at OKC	21%	112–124	L 110–144	✓correct	−22
Jan 29	at PHI	61%	118–113	L 104–117	✗missed	−18
Jan 27	at BKN	69%	118–110	W 110–96	✓correct	+6
Jan 25	at NYK	41%	115–118	L 120–143	✓correct	−20
Jan 23	at DEN	33%	112–118	L 123–132	✓correct	−3
Jan 22	vs GSW	69%	117–110	W 123–117	✓correct	−1
Jan 19	vs WAS	88%	128–110	W 123–100	✓correct	+5
Jan 16	vs HOU	59%	114–111	W 132–127	✓correct	+2
Jan 14	at MIL	46%	114–115	L 115–130	✓correct	−14
Jan 12	at CHI	56%	117–114	W 124–119	✓correct	+2
Jan 10	at BOS	29%	107–115	W 114–97	✗missed	+25
Jan 6	vs MIA	64%	116–111	W 123–118	✓correct	±0
Jan 5	at GSW	41%	114–117	W 129–99	✗missed	+33
Jan 3	vs MEM	54%	117–116	W 138–133	✓correct	+4
Jan 1	vs PHI	71%	117–109	W 113–107	✓correct	−2
Dec 30	vs DAL	64%	119–114	W 110–100	✓correct	+5
Dec 28	at LAL	41%	113–116	L 122–132	✓correct	−7
Dec 26	vs DET	69%	122–115	L 113–114	✗missed	−8
Dec 22	vs IND	64%	120–115	L 95–122	✗missed	−32
Dec 21	vs LAL	71%	118–110	L 99–103	✗missed	−12
Dec 19	vs LAL	67%	118–112	L 100–113	✗missed	−19
Dec 16	vs DEN	54%	119–118	L 129–130	✗missed	−2
Dec 12	at NOP	71%	122–113	W 111–109	✓correct	−7
Dec 8	vs UTA	77%	120–109	W 141–97	✓correct	+33
Dec 6	at SAS	54%	114–112	W 140–113	✓correct	+25
Dec 5	at MEM	29%	113–121	L 110–115	✓correct	+3
Dec 3	vs HOU	49%	115–116	W 120–111	✗missed	+10
Dec 1	vs SAS	44%	110–113	L 125–127	✓correct	+1
Nov 29	at POR	54%	113–111	L 106–115	✗missed	−11
Nov 27	at MIN	31%	106–113	W 115–104	✗missed	+18
Nov 25	vs OKC	49%	110–111	L 109–130	✓correct	−20
Nov 24	vs BKN	71%	114–106	L 103–108	✗missed	−13
Nov 22	at LAC	46%	108–109	L 88–104	✓correct	−15
Nov 18	vs ATL	59%	121–118	L 108–109	✗missed	−4
Nov 16	vs UTA	62%	115–111	W 121–117	✓correct	±0
Nov 15	vs MIN	62%	112–108	L 126–130	✗missed	−8
Nov 13	vs PHX	67%	115–109	W 127–104	✓correct	+17
Nov 11	at SAS	59%	112–108	L 96–116	✗missed	−24
Nov 10	at PHX	43%	112–114	W 127–118	✗missed	+11
Nov 8	vs LAC	64%	113–108	L 98–107	✗missed	−14
Nov 6	vs TOR	81%	125–112	W 122–107	✓correct	+2
Nov 4	at MIA	46%	109–110	W 111–110	✗missed	+2
Nov 2	at TOR	69%	119–111	L 128–131	✗missed	−11
Nov 1	at ATL	64%	119–113	W 123–115	✓correct	+2
Oct 29	at UTA	64%	117–111	W 113–96	✓correct	+11
Oct 28	vs POR	75%	116–106	W 111–98	✓correct	+3
Oct 26	at LAL	41%	109–112	L 127–131	✓correct	−1
Oct 24	vs MIN	62%	111–107	L 115–117	✗missed	−6

2023-24

12.4 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.7 to 14.1; 26th smallest of 30

−0.5

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -3.4 to 2.4

15.7 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.3

55%

winner picked

82 games involving SAC

46 / 44.5

actual / expected wins

gap +1.6

0.241

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	SAC win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 14	vs POR	82%	115–99	W 121–82	✓correct	+23
Apr 12	vs PHX	57%	110–109	L 107–108	✗missed	−2
Apr 11	vs NOP	57%	108–107	L 123–135	✗missed	−13
Apr 9	at OKC	35%	108–113	L 105–112	✓correct	−2
Apr 7	at BKN	57%	113–107	W 107–77	✓correct	+24
Apr 5	at BOS	47%	109–108	L 100–101	✗missed	−2
Apr 4	at NYK	34%	104–110	L 109–120	✓correct	−5
Apr 2	vs LAC	53%	108–109	W 109–95	✗missed	+15
Mar 31	vs UTA	75%	115–104	W 127–106	✓correct	+10
Mar 29	vs DAL	57%	113–112	L 103–107	✗missed	−5
Mar 26	vs DAL	63%	114–110	L 96–132	✗missed	−40
Mar 25	vs PHI	65%	112–107	W 108–96	✓correct	+7
Mar 23	at ORL	39%	108–111	W 109–107	✗missed	+5
Mar 21	at WAS	63%	122–113	L 102–109	✗missed	−16
Mar 20	at TOR	75%	122–106	W 123–89	✓correct	+18
Mar 18	vs MEM	78%	115–102	W 121–111	✓correct	−3
Mar 16	vs NYK	59%	110–108	L 91–98	✗missed	−9
Mar 13	vs LAL	61%	118–115	W 120–107	✓correct	+10
Mar 12	vs MIL	51%	113–115	W 129–94	✗missed	+37
Mar 10	vs HOU	61%	117–114	L 104–112	✗missed	−11
Mar 7	vs SAS	76%	122–110	W 131–129	✓correct	−10
Mar 6	at LAL	43%	117–118	W 130–120	✗missed	+11
Mar 4	vs CHI	57%	113–112	L 109–113	✗missed	−5
Mar 1	at MIN	37%	113–117	W 124–120	✗missed	+8
Feb 28	at DEN	34%	111–117	L 96–117	✓correct	−15
Feb 26	vs MIA	72%	122–113	L 110–121	✗missed	−20
Feb 25	at LAC	30%	113–121	W 123–107	✗missed	+24
Feb 22	vs SAS	73%	121–111	W 127–122	✓correct	−5
Feb 14	at DEN	34%	110–116	W 102–98	✗missed	+10
Feb 13	at PHX	34%	114–120	L 125–130	✓correct	+1
Feb 11	at OKC	32%	112–119	L 113–127	✓correct	−7
Feb 9	vs DEN	51%	114–116	W 135–106	✗missed	+31
Feb 7	vs DET	82%	127–111	L 120–133	✗missed	−29
Feb 5	at CLE	34%	112–118	L 110–136	✓correct	−20
Feb 3	at CHI	43%	116–117	W 123–115	✗missed	+9
Feb 2	at IND	41%	116–118	W 133–122	✗missed	+13
Jan 31	at MIA	55%	115–110	L 106–115	✗missed	−14
Jan 29	at MEM	59%	116–109	W 103–94	✓correct	+2
Jan 27	at DAL	53%	122–118	W 120–115	✓correct	+1
Jan 25	at GSW	53%	122–118	W 134–133	✓correct	−3
Jan 22	vs ATL	72%	124–115	W 122–107	✓correct	+6
Jan 18	vs IND	57%	118–117	L 121–126	✗missed	−6
Jan 16	at PHX	43%	116–117	L 117–119	✓correct	−1
Jan 14	at MIL	39%	115–118	L 142–143	✓correct	+2
Jan 12	at PHI	41%	112–114	L 93–112	✓correct	−17
Jan 10	at CHA	59%	117–110	W 123–98	✓correct	+18
Jan 9	at DET	55%	121–116	W 131–110	✓correct	+16
Jan 7	vs NOP	59%	116–114	L 100–133	✗missed	−35
Jan 5	vs TOR	61%	118–115	W 135–130	✓correct	+2
Jan 3	vs ORL	61%	118–115	W 138–135	✓correct	±0
Jan 2	vs CHA	81%	123–108	L 104–111	✗missed	−22
Dec 31	at MEM	51%	117–114	W 123–92	✓correct	+28
Dec 29	at ATL	49%	122–120	W 117–110	✓correct	+5
Dec 26	at POR	53%	119–115	L 113–130	✗missed	−21
Dec 23	vs MIN	59%	118–116	L 98–110	✗missed	−14
Dec 22	vs PHX	61%	120–117	W 120–105	✓correct	+12
Dec 20	vs BOS	63%	118–114	L 119–144	✗missed	−29
Dec 18	vs WAS	70%	121–113	W 143–131	✓correct	+4
Dec 16	vs UTA	76%	122–110	W 125–104	✓correct	+9
Dec 14	vs OKC	59%	116–114	W 128–123	✓correct	+3
Dec 12	at LAC	34%	112–118	L 99–119	✓correct	−14
Dec 11	vs BKN	61%	117–114	W 131–118	✓correct	+10
Dec 8	at PHX	49%	117–115	W 114–106	✓correct	+6
Dec 4	vs NOP	61%	119–116	L 117–127	✗missed	−13
Dec 2	vs DEN	57%	116–115	W 123–117	✓correct	+5
Nov 29	vs LAC	65%	117–112	L 117–131	✗missed	−19
Nov 28	vs GSW	61%	118–115	W 124–123	✓correct	−2
Nov 24	at MIN	32%	110–117	W 124–111	✗missed	+20
Nov 22	at NOP	43%	116–117	L 112–117	✓correct	−4
Nov 20	at NOP	49%	116–114	L 93–129	✗missed	−38
Nov 19	at DAL	37%	116–120	W 129–113	✗missed	+20
Nov 17	at SAS	59%	120–113	W 129–120	✓correct	+2
Nov 15	at LAL	41%	112–114	W 125–110	✗missed	+17
Nov 13	vs CLE	57%	112–111	W 132–120	✓correct	+11
Nov 10	vs OKC	53%	114–115	W 105–98	✗missed	+8
Nov 8	vs POR	67%	117–111	W 121–118	✓correct	−3
Nov 6	at HOU	43%	113–114	L 97–122	✓correct	−24
Nov 4	at HOU	49%	117–115	L 89–107	✗missed	−20
Nov 1	at GSW	27%	109–119	L 101–102	✓correct	+9
Oct 29	vs LAL	57%	116–115	W 132–127	✓correct	+4
Oct 27	vs GSW	59%	116–114	L 114–122	✗missed	−10
Oct 25	at UTA	55%	118–113	W 130–114	✓correct	+11

2022-23

11.0 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.4 to 12.6; 22nd smallest of 30

+1.4

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -1.0 to 3.7

14.0 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 10.3

52%

winner picked

89 games involving SAC

51 / 46.1

actual / expected wins

gap +4.9

0.259

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 89 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	SAC win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 30 PO	vs GSW	53%	111–110	L 100–120	✗missed	−21
Apr 28 PO	at GSW	28%	109–118	W 118–99	✗missed	+28
Apr 26 PO	vs GSW	53%	115–114	L 116–123	✗missed	−8
Apr 23 PO	at GSW	30%	108–116	L 125–126	✓correct	+7
Apr 20 PO	at GSW	28%	108–117	L 97–114	✓correct	−8
Apr 17 PO	vs GSW	63%	116–111	W 114–106	✓correct	+3
Apr 15 PO	vs GSW	70%	121–113	W 126–123	✓correct	−5
Apr 9	at DEN	65%	117–111	L 95–109	✗missed	−20
Apr 7	vs GSW	58%	118–115	L 97–119	✗missed	−25
Apr 5	at DAL	47%	119–120	L 119–123	✓correct	−3
Apr 4	at NOP	45%	115–117	W 121–103	✗missed	+20
Apr 2	vs SAS	90%	124–103	L 134–142	✗missed	−29
Mar 31	at POR	80%	127–114	W 138–114	✓correct	+11
Mar 29	at POR	76%	127–116	W 120–80	✓correct	+29
Mar 27	vs MIN	60%	120–116	L 115–119	✗missed	−8
Mar 25	vs UTA	68%	123–116	W 121–113	✓correct	+1
Mar 24	vs PHX	60%	122–118	W 135–127	✓correct	+4
Mar 21	vs BOS	37%	111–116	L 109–132	✓correct	−18
Mar 20	at UTA	68%	126–119	L 120–128	✗missed	−15
Mar 18	at WAS	47%	114–115	W 132–118	✗missed	+15
Mar 16	at BKN	47%	118–119	W 101–96	✗missed	+6
Mar 15	at CHI	40%	115–119	W 117–114	✗missed	+7
Mar 13	vs MIL	47%	118–119	L 124–133	✓correct	−8
Mar 11	at PHX	30%	113–121	W 128–119	✗missed	+17
Mar 9	vs NYK	45%	117–119	W 122–117	✗missed	+7
Mar 6	vs NOP	45%	113–115	W 123–108	✗missed	+17
Mar 4	vs MIN	53%	117–116	L 134–138	✗missed	−5
Mar 3	vs LAC	60%	120–116	W 128–127	✓correct	−3
Feb 28	at OKC	42%	117–120	W 123–117	✗missed	+9
Feb 26	at OKC	37%	117–122	W 124–115	✗missed	+14
Feb 24	at LAC	45%	114–116	W 176–175	✗missed	+3
Feb 23	vs POR	68%	126–119	W 133–116	✓correct	+10
Feb 14	at PHX	45%	113–115	L 109–120	✓correct	−9
Feb 11	vs DAL	47%	113–114	W 133–128	✗missed	+6
Feb 10	vs DAL	65%	114–108	L 114–122	✗missed	−14
Feb 8	at HOU	60%	121–117	W 130–128	✓correct	−2
Feb 6	at HOU	60%	121–117	W 140–120	✓correct	+16
Feb 5	at NOP	72%	118–109	L 104–136	✗missed	−41
Feb 3	at IND	60%	123–119	L 104–107	✗missed	−7
Feb 1	at SAS	60%	123–119	W 119–109	✓correct	+6
Jan 30	at MIN	40%	117–121	W 118–111	✗missed	+11
Jan 28	at MIN	45%	117–119	L 110–117	✓correct	−5
Jan 25	vs TOR	58%	116–113	L 95–113	✗missed	−21
Jan 23	vs MEM	58%	119–116	W 133–100	✓correct	+30
Jan 21	vs PHI	45%	115–117	L 127–129	✓correct	±0
Jan 20	vs OKC	60%	119–115	W 118–113	✓correct	+1
Jan 18	at LAL	47%	119–120	W 116–111	✗missed	+6
Jan 15	at SAS	60%	124–120	W 132–119	✓correct	+9
Jan 13	vs HOU	83%	123–108	W 139–114	✓correct	+10
Jan 11	vs HOU	80%	123–110	W 135–115	✓correct	+7
Jan 9	vs ORL	63%	122–117	W 136–111	✓correct	+20
Jan 7	vs LAL	53%	119–118	L 134–136	✗missed	−3
Jan 4	vs ATL	55%	119–117	L 117–120	✗missed	−5
Jan 3	at UTA	47%	116–117	W 117–115	✗missed	+3
Jan 1	at MEM	42%	112–115	L 108–118	✓correct	−7
Dec 30	vs UTA	58%	117–114	W 126–125	✓correct	−2
Dec 28	vs DEN	37%	114–119	W 127–126	✗missed	+6
Dec 27	vs DEN	45%	116–118	L 106–113	✓correct	−5
Dec 23	vs WAS	65%	119–113	L 111–125	✗missed	−20
Dec 21	vs LAL	65%	119–113	W 134–120	✓correct	+8
Dec 19	vs CHA	83%	121–106	L 119–125	✗missed	−21
Dec 16	at DET	70%	120–112	W 122–113	✓correct	+1
Dec 14	at TOR	42%	111–114	W 124–123	✗missed	+4
Dec 13	at PHI	45%	111–113	L 103–123	✓correct	−18
Dec 11	at NYK	45%	111–113	L 99–112	✓correct	−11
Dec 9	at CLE	37%	106–111	W 106–95	✗missed	+16
Dec 7	at MIL	35%	111–117	L 113–126	✓correct	−7
Dec 4	vs CHI	65%	119–113	W 110–101	✓correct	+3
Dec 3	at LAC	47%	116–117	W 123–96	✗missed	+28
Nov 30	vs IND	53%	119–118	W 137–114	✓correct	+22
Nov 28	vs PHX	45%	117–119	L 117–122	✓correct	−3
Nov 25	at BOS	35%	114–120	L 104–122	✓correct	−12
Nov 23	at ATL	32%	113–120	L 106–115	✓correct	−2
Nov 22	at MEM	28%	111–120	W 113–109	✗missed	+13
Nov 20	vs DET	83%	122–107	W 137–129	✓correct	−7
Nov 17	vs SAS	81%	121–107	W 130–112	✓correct	+4
Nov 15	vs BKN	40%	109–113	W 153–121	✗missed	+36
Nov 13	vs GSW	37%	114–119	W 122–115	✗missed	+12
Nov 11	at LAL	63%	113–108	W 120–114	✓correct	+1
Nov 9	vs CLE	26%	105–115	W 127–120	✗missed	+17
Nov 7	at GSW	42%	111–114	L 113–116	✓correct	±0
Nov 5	at ORL	47%	113–114	W 126–123	✗missed	+4
Nov 2	at MIA	30%	106–114	L 107–110	✓correct	+5
Oct 31	at CHA	24%	108–119	W 115–108	✗missed	+18
Oct 29	vs MIA	35%	106–112	W 119–113	✗missed	+12
Oct 27	vs MEM	32%	111–118	L 110–125	✓correct	−8
Oct 23	at GSW	28%	106–115	L 125–130	✓correct	+4
Oct 22	vs LAC	35%	110–116	L 109–111	✓correct	+4
Oct 19	vs POR	81%	116–102	L 108–115	✗missed	−21

2022-23 to 2026-27

11.7 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.8 to 12.5; 28th smallest of 30

−1.1

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.4 to 0.2

14.8 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

60%

winner picked

345 games involving SAC

160 / 166.2

actual / expected wins

gap −6.2

0.236

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 345 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	SAC win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 8	vs MIA	35%	118–123	L 108–114	✓correct	−1
Nov 6	vs SAS	23%	111–121	L 109–124	✓correct	−5
Nov 4	vs LAL	23%	112–124	L 103–116	✓correct	−1
Nov 2	at DAL	26%	114–123	W 115–100	✗missed	+24
Oct 31	at MEM	41%	119–122	L 105–136	✓correct	−28
Oct 29	at NOP	44%	120–122	L 120–132	✓correct	−10
Oct 27	at SAS	15%	108–123	L 103–130	✓correct	−12
Oct 25	vs MEM	56%	119–117	L 112–123	✗missed	−13
Oct 23	vs POR	36%	112–117	L 120–128	✓correct	−3
Oct 21	at LAC	31%	111–118	L 96–121	✓correct	−18
Apr 12	at POR	17%	105–119	L 110–122	✓correct	+2
Apr 10	vs GSW	42%	114–117	W 124–118	✗missed	+9
Apr 7	at GSW	36%	111–116	L 105–110	✓correct	±0
Apr 5	vs LAC	27%	110–119	L 109–138	✓correct	−20
Apr 3	vs NOP	44%	113–115	W 117–113	✗missed	+6
Apr 1	at TOR	22%	108–119	W 123–115	✗missed	+19
Mar 29	at BKN	56%	113–111	L 99–116	✗missed	−19
Mar 28	at ATL	19%	110–123	L 113–123	✓correct	+3
Mar 26	at ORL	19%	112–125	L 117–121	✓correct	+9
Mar 24	at CHA	13%	106–123	L 90–134	✓correct	−27
Mar 22	vs BKN	64%	116–111	W 126–122	✓correct	−1
Mar 19	vs PHI	44%	115–117	L 118–139	✓correct	−19
Mar 17	vs SAS	19%	112–125	L 104–132	✓correct	−15
Mar 15	vs UTA	56%	116–114	W 116–111	✓correct	+3
Mar 14	at LAC	14%	109–125	W 118–109	✗missed	+25
Mar 11	vs CHA	19%	106–119	L 109–117	✓correct	+5
Mar 10	vs IND	53%	118–117	W 114–109	✓correct	+4
Mar 8	vs CHI	42%	115–118	W 126–110	✗missed	+19
Mar 5	vs NOP	34%	113–119	L 123–133	✓correct	−4
Mar 3	vs PHX	39%	108–112	L 103–114	✓correct	−7
Mar 1	at LAL	19%	109–122	L 104–128	✓correct	−11
Feb 26	at DAL	31%	115–122	W 130–121	✗missed	+16
Feb 25	at HOU	19%	104–117	L 97–128	✓correct	−18
Feb 23	at MEM	29%	115–123	W 123–114	✗missed	+17
Feb 21	at SAS	8%	103–124	L 122–139	✓correct	+4
Feb 19	vs ORL	31%	108–115	L 94–131	✓correct	−30
Feb 11	at UTA	41%	113–116	L 93–121	✓correct	−25
Feb 9	at NOP	39%	111–115	L 94–120	✓correct	−22
Feb 7	vs CLE	27%	107–116	L 126–132	✓correct	+3
Feb 6	vs LAC	36%	110–115	L 111–114	✓correct	+2
Feb 4	vs MEM	47%	114–115	L 125–129	✓correct	−3
Feb 1	at WAS	61%	114–110	L 112–116	✗missed	−8
Jan 30	at BOS	29%	107–115	L 93–112	✓correct	−11
Jan 29	at PHI	36%	113–118	L 111–113	✓correct	+3
Jan 27	at NYK	26%	107–116	L 87–103	✓correct	−7
Jan 25	at DET	24%	108–118	L 116–139	✓correct	−13
Jan 23	at CLE	31%	112–119	L 118–123	✓correct	+2
Jan 21	vs TOR	42%	111–114	L 109–122	✓correct	−10
Jan 20	vs MIA	44%	116–118	L 117–130	✓correct	−11
Jan 18	vs POR	44%	112–114	L 110–117	✓correct	−5
Jan 16	vs WAS	64%	117–112	W 128–115	✓correct	+8
Jan 14	vs NYK	31%	110–117	W 112–101	✗missed	+18
Jan 12	vs LAL	36%	108–113	W 124–112	✗missed	+17
Jan 11	vs HOU	22%	106–117	W 111–98	✗missed	+24
Jan 9	at GSW	20%	108–120	L 103–137	✓correct	−22
Jan 6	vs DAL	39%	115–119	L 98–100	✓correct	+2
Jan 4	vs MIL	47%	113–114	L 98–115	✓correct	−16
Jan 2	at PHX	20%	107–119	L 102–129	✓correct	−15
Jan 1	vs BOS	29%	110–118	L 106–120	✓correct	−6
Dec 30	at LAC	24%	105–115	L 90–131	✓correct	−31
Dec 28	at LAL	31%	110–117	L 101–125	✓correct	−17
Dec 27	vs DAL	36%	114–119	W 113–107	✗missed	+11
Dec 23	vs DET	24%	112–122	L 127–136	✓correct	+1
Dec 21	vs HOU	24%	109–119	W 125–124	✗missed	+11
Dec 20	vs POR	39%	115–119	L 93–98	✓correct	−1
Dec 18	at POR	39%	115–119	L 133–134	✓correct	+3
Dec 14	at MIN	19%	109–122	L 103–117	✓correct	−1
Dec 11	vs DEN	20%	111–123	L 105–136	✓correct	−19
Dec 8	at IND	39%	113–117	L 105–116	✓correct	−7
Dec 6	at MIA	19%	111–124	W 127–111	✗missed	+29
Dec 3	at HOU	11%	106–124	L 95–121	✓correct	−8
Nov 30	vs MEM	42%	114–117	L 107–115	✓correct	−5
Nov 28	at UTA	47%	119–120	L 119–128	✓correct	−8
Nov 26	vs PHX	34%	114–120	L 100–112	✓correct	−6
Nov 24	vs MIN	22%	114–125	W 117–112	✗missed	+16
Nov 22	at DEN	13%	111–128	W 128–123	✗missed	+22
Nov 20	at MEM	53%	116–115	L 96–137	✗missed	−42
Nov 19	at OKC	7%	106–129	L 99–113	✓correct	+9
Nov 16	at SAS	31%	114–121	L 110–123	✓correct	−6
Nov 14	at MIN	17%	113–127	L 110–124	✓correct	±0
Nov 12	vs ATL	31%	113–120	L 100–133	✓correct	−26
Nov 11	vs DEN	29%	113–121	L 108–122	✓correct	−6
Nov 9	vs MIN	47%	118–119	L 117–144	✓correct	−26
Nov 7	vs OKC	36%	113–118	L 101–132	✓correct	−26
Nov 5	vs GSW	42%	112–115	W 121–116	✗missed	+8
Nov 3	at DEN	39%	112–116	L 124–130	✓correct	−2
Nov 1	at MIL	36%	113–118	W 135–133	✗missed	+7
Oct 29	at CHI	31%	113–120	L 113–126	✓correct	−6
Oct 28	at OKC	29%	108–116	L 101–107	✓correct	+2
Oct 26	vs LAL	64%	112–107	L 120–127	✗missed	−12
Oct 24	vs UTA	64%	118–113	W 105–104	✓correct	−4
Oct 22	at PHX	58%	116–113	L 116–120	✗missed	−7
Apr 13	vs PHX	71%	116–108	W 109–98	✓correct	+3
Apr 11	vs LAC	36%	109–115	L 100–101	✓correct	+5
Apr 9	vs DEN	49%	114–115	L 116–124	✓correct	−7
Apr 7	at DET	33%	111–117	W 127–117	✗missed	+16
Apr 6	at CLE	31%	112–119	W 120–113	✗missed	+14
Apr 4	at CHA	66%	115–108	W 125–102	✓correct	+16
Apr 2	at WAS	66%	121–114	L 111–116	✗missed	−12
Mar 31	at IND	36%	112–117	L 109–111	✓correct	+3
Mar 29	at ORL	51%	111–110	L 91–121	✗missed	−31
Mar 27	vs POR	49%	112–113	W 128–107	✗missed	+22
Mar 25	vs OKC	29%	110–119	L 105–121	✓correct	−7
Mar 24	vs BOS	27%	109–119	L 95–113	✓correct	−8
Mar 22	vs MIL	46%	114–116	L 108–114	✓correct	−4
Mar 20	vs CHI	67%	121–115	L 116–128	✗missed	−18
Mar 19	vs CLE	34%	111–118	W 123–119	✗missed	+11
Mar 17	vs MEM	62%	118–114	W 132–122	✓correct	+6
Mar 14	at PHX	59%	117–113	L 106–122	✗missed	−20
Mar 13	at GSW	46%	113–114	L 104–130	✓correct	−25
Mar 10	vs NYK	67%	113–107	L 104–133	✗missed	−35
Mar 9	at LAC	41%	107–110	L 110–111	✓correct	+2
Mar 7	vs SAS	73%	122–113	W 127–109	✓correct	+9
Mar 5	at DEN	33%	112–118	L 110–116	✓correct	±0
Mar 3	at DAL	51%	115–114	W 122–98	✓correct	+23
Mar 1	at HOU	38%	110–114	W 113–103	✗missed	+14
Feb 26	at UTA	64%	121–115	W 118–101	✓correct	+11
Feb 24	vs CHA	73%	117–108	W 130–88	✓correct	+33
Feb 21	vs GSW	64%	118–113	L 108–132	✗missed	−29
Feb 13	at NOP	75%	125–114	L 133–140	✗missed	−18
Feb 12	at NOP	71%	123–114	W 119–111	✓correct	−1
Feb 10	at DAL	38%	118–122	W 129–128	✗missed	+5
Feb 8	vs NOP	73%	123–114	W 123–118	✓correct	−4
Feb 6	at POR	46%	114–115	L 102–108	✓correct	−5
Feb 5	vs ORL	69%	118–111	L 111–130	✗missed	−26
Feb 3	at MIN	33%	114–120	W 116–114	✗missed	+8
Feb 1	at OKC	21%	112–124	L 110–144	✓correct	−22
Jan 29	at PHI	61%	118–113	L 104–117	✗missed	−18
Jan 27	at BKN	69%	118–110	W 110–96	✓correct	+6
Jan 25	at NYK	41%	115–118	L 120–143	✓correct	−20
Jan 23	at DEN	33%	112–118	L 123–132	✓correct	−3
Jan 22	vs GSW	69%	117–110	W 123–117	✓correct	−1
Jan 19	vs WAS	88%	128–110	W 123–100	✓correct	+5
Jan 16	vs HOU	59%	114–111	W 132–127	✓correct	+2
Jan 14	at MIL	46%	114–115	L 115–130	✓correct	−14
Jan 12	at CHI	56%	117–114	W 124–119	✓correct	+2
Jan 10	at BOS	29%	107–115	W 114–97	✗missed	+25
Jan 6	vs MIA	64%	116–111	W 123–118	✓correct	±0
Jan 5	at GSW	41%	114–117	W 129–99	✗missed	+33
Jan 3	vs MEM	54%	117–116	W 138–133	✓correct	+4
Jan 1	vs PHI	71%	117–109	W 113–107	✓correct	−2
Dec 30	vs DAL	64%	119–114	W 110–100	✓correct	+5
Dec 28	at LAL	41%	113–116	L 122–132	✓correct	−7
Dec 26	vs DET	69%	122–115	L 113–114	✗missed	−8
Dec 22	vs IND	64%	120–115	L 95–122	✗missed	−32
Dec 21	vs LAL	71%	118–110	L 99–103	✗missed	−12
Dec 19	vs LAL	67%	118–112	L 100–113	✗missed	−19
Dec 16	vs DEN	54%	119–118	L 129–130	✗missed	−2
Dec 12	at NOP	71%	122–113	W 111–109	✓correct	−7
Dec 8	vs UTA	77%	120–109	W 141–97	✓correct	+33
Dec 6	at SAS	54%	114–112	W 140–113	✓correct	+25
Dec 5	at MEM	29%	113–121	L 110–115	✓correct	+3
Dec 3	vs HOU	49%	115–116	W 120–111	✗missed	+10
Dec 1	vs SAS	44%	110–113	L 125–127	✓correct	+1
Nov 29	at POR	54%	113–111	L 106–115	✗missed	−11
Nov 27	at MIN	31%	106–113	W 115–104	✗missed	+18
Nov 25	vs OKC	49%	110–111	L 109–130	✓correct	−20
Nov 24	vs BKN	71%	114–106	L 103–108	✗missed	−13
Nov 22	at LAC	46%	108–109	L 88–104	✓correct	−15
Nov 18	vs ATL	59%	121–118	L 108–109	✗missed	−4
Nov 16	vs UTA	62%	115–111	W 121–117	✓correct	±0
Nov 15	vs MIN	62%	112–108	L 126–130	✗missed	−8
Nov 13	vs PHX	67%	115–109	W 127–104	✓correct	+17
Nov 11	at SAS	59%	112–108	L 96–116	✗missed	−24
Nov 10	at PHX	43%	112–114	W 127–118	✗missed	+11
Nov 8	vs LAC	64%	113–108	L 98–107	✗missed	−14
Nov 6	vs TOR	81%	125–112	W 122–107	✓correct	+2
Nov 4	at MIA	46%	109–110	W 111–110	✗missed	+2
Nov 2	at TOR	69%	119–111	L 128–131	✗missed	−11
Nov 1	at ATL	64%	119–113	W 123–115	✓correct	+2
Oct 29	at UTA	64%	117–111	W 113–96	✓correct	+11
Oct 28	vs POR	75%	116–106	W 111–98	✓correct	+3
Oct 26	at LAL	41%	109–112	L 127–131	✓correct	−1
Oct 24	vs MIN	62%	111–107	L 115–117	✗missed	−6
Apr 14	vs POR	82%	115–99	W 121–82	✓correct	+23
Apr 12	vs PHX	57%	110–109	L 107–108	✗missed	−2
Apr 11	vs NOP	57%	108–107	L 123–135	✗missed	−13
Apr 9	at OKC	35%	108–113	L 105–112	✓correct	−2
Apr 7	at BKN	57%	113–107	W 107–77	✓correct	+24
Apr 5	at BOS	47%	109–108	L 100–101	✗missed	−2
Apr 4	at NYK	34%	104–110	L 109–120	✓correct	−5
Apr 2	vs LAC	53%	108–109	W 109–95	✗missed	+15
Mar 31	vs UTA	75%	115–104	W 127–106	✓correct	+10
Mar 29	vs DAL	57%	113–112	L 103–107	✗missed	−5
Mar 26	vs DAL	63%	114–110	L 96–132	✗missed	−40
Mar 25	vs PHI	65%	112–107	W 108–96	✓correct	+7
Mar 23	at ORL	39%	108–111	W 109–107	✗missed	+5
Mar 21	at WAS	63%	122–113	L 102–109	✗missed	−16
Mar 20	at TOR	75%	122–106	W 123–89	✓correct	+18
Mar 18	vs MEM	78%	115–102	W 121–111	✓correct	−3
Mar 16	vs NYK	59%	110–108	L 91–98	✗missed	−9
Mar 13	vs LAL	61%	118–115	W 120–107	✓correct	+10
Mar 12	vs MIL	51%	113–115	W 129–94	✗missed	+37
Mar 10	vs HOU	61%	117–114	L 104–112	✗missed	−11
Mar 7	vs SAS	76%	122–110	W 131–129	✓correct	−10
Mar 6	at LAL	43%	117–118	W 130–120	✗missed	+11
Mar 4	vs CHI	57%	113–112	L 109–113	✗missed	−5
Mar 1	at MIN	37%	113–117	W 124–120	✗missed	+8
Feb 28	at DEN	34%	111–117	L 96–117	✓correct	−15
Feb 26	vs MIA	72%	122–113	L 110–121	✗missed	−20
Feb 25	at LAC	30%	113–121	W 123–107	✗missed	+24
Feb 22	vs SAS	73%	121–111	W 127–122	✓correct	−5
Feb 14	at DEN	34%	110–116	W 102–98	✗missed	+10
Feb 13	at PHX	34%	114–120	L 125–130	✓correct	+1
Feb 11	at OKC	32%	112–119	L 113–127	✓correct	−7
Feb 9	vs DEN	51%	114–116	W 135–106	✗missed	+31
Feb 7	vs DET	82%	127–111	L 120–133	✗missed	−29
Feb 5	at CLE	34%	112–118	L 110–136	✓correct	−20
Feb 3	at CHI	43%	116–117	W 123–115	✗missed	+9
Feb 2	at IND	41%	116–118	W 133–122	✗missed	+13
Jan 31	at MIA	55%	115–110	L 106–115	✗missed	−14
Jan 29	at MEM	59%	116–109	W 103–94	✓correct	+2
Jan 27	at DAL	53%	122–118	W 120–115	✓correct	+1
Jan 25	at GSW	53%	122–118	W 134–133	✓correct	−3
Jan 22	vs ATL	72%	124–115	W 122–107	✓correct	+6
Jan 18	vs IND	57%	118–117	L 121–126	✗missed	−6
Jan 16	at PHX	43%	116–117	L 117–119	✓correct	−1
Jan 14	at MIL	39%	115–118	L 142–143	✓correct	+2
Jan 12	at PHI	41%	112–114	L 93–112	✓correct	−17
Jan 10	at CHA	59%	117–110	W 123–98	✓correct	+18
Jan 9	at DET	55%	121–116	W 131–110	✓correct	+16
Jan 7	vs NOP	59%	116–114	L 100–133	✗missed	−35
Jan 5	vs TOR	61%	118–115	W 135–130	✓correct	+2
Jan 3	vs ORL	61%	118–115	W 138–135	✓correct	±0
Jan 2	vs CHA	81%	123–108	L 104–111	✗missed	−22
Dec 31	at MEM	51%	117–114	W 123–92	✓correct	+28
Dec 29	at ATL	49%	122–120	W 117–110	✓correct	+5
Dec 26	at POR	53%	119–115	L 113–130	✗missed	−21
Dec 23	vs MIN	59%	118–116	L 98–110	✗missed	−14
Dec 22	vs PHX	61%	120–117	W 120–105	✓correct	+12
Dec 20	vs BOS	63%	118–114	L 119–144	✗missed	−29
Dec 18	vs WAS	70%	121–113	W 143–131	✓correct	+4
Dec 16	vs UTA	76%	122–110	W 125–104	✓correct	+9
Dec 14	vs OKC	59%	116–114	W 128–123	✓correct	+3
Dec 12	at LAC	34%	112–118	L 99–119	✓correct	−14
Dec 11	vs BKN	61%	117–114	W 131–118	✓correct	+10
Dec 8	at PHX	49%	117–115	W 114–106	✓correct	+6
Dec 4	vs NOP	61%	119–116	L 117–127	✗missed	−13
Dec 2	vs DEN	57%	116–115	W 123–117	✓correct	+5
Nov 29	vs LAC	65%	117–112	L 117–131	✗missed	−19
Nov 28	vs GSW	61%	118–115	W 124–123	✓correct	−2
Nov 24	at MIN	32%	110–117	W 124–111	✗missed	+20
Nov 22	at NOP	43%	116–117	L 112–117	✓correct	−4
Nov 20	at NOP	49%	116–114	L 93–129	✗missed	−38
Nov 19	at DAL	37%	116–120	W 129–113	✗missed	+20
Nov 17	at SAS	59%	120–113	W 129–120	✓correct	+2
Nov 15	at LAL	41%	112–114	W 125–110	✗missed	+17
Nov 13	vs CLE	57%	112–111	W 132–120	✓correct	+11
Nov 10	vs OKC	53%	114–115	W 105–98	✗missed	+8
Nov 8	vs POR	67%	117–111	W 121–118	✓correct	−3
Nov 6	at HOU	43%	113–114	L 97–122	✓correct	−24
Nov 4	at HOU	49%	117–115	L 89–107	✗missed	−20
Nov 1	at GSW	27%	109–119	L 101–102	✓correct	+9
Oct 29	vs LAL	57%	116–115	W 132–127	✓correct	+4
Oct 27	vs GSW	59%	116–114	L 114–122	✗missed	−10
Oct 25	at UTA	55%	118–113	W 130–114	✓correct	+11
Apr 30 PO	vs GSW	53%	111–110	L 100–120	✗missed	−21
Apr 28 PO	at GSW	28%	109–118	W 118–99	✗missed	+28
Apr 26 PO	vs GSW	53%	115–114	L 116–123	✗missed	−8
Apr 23 PO	at GSW	30%	108–116	L 125–126	✓correct	+7
Apr 20 PO	at GSW	28%	108–117	L 97–114	✓correct	−8
Apr 17 PO	vs GSW	63%	116–111	W 114–106	✓correct	+3
Apr 15 PO	vs GSW	70%	121–113	W 126–123	✓correct	−5
Apr 9	at DEN	65%	117–111	L 95–109	✗missed	−20
Apr 7	vs GSW	58%	118–115	L 97–119	✗missed	−25
Apr 5	at DAL	47%	119–120	L 119–123	✓correct	−3
Apr 4	at NOP	45%	115–117	W 121–103	✗missed	+20
Apr 2	vs SAS	90%	124–103	L 134–142	✗missed	−29
Mar 31	at POR	80%	127–114	W 138–114	✓correct	+11
Mar 29	at POR	76%	127–116	W 120–80	✓correct	+29
Mar 27	vs MIN	60%	120–116	L 115–119	✗missed	−8
Mar 25	vs UTA	68%	123–116	W 121–113	✓correct	+1
Mar 24	vs PHX	60%	122–118	W 135–127	✓correct	+4
Mar 21	vs BOS	37%	111–116	L 109–132	✓correct	−18
Mar 20	at UTA	68%	126–119	L 120–128	✗missed	−15
Mar 18	at WAS	47%	114–115	W 132–118	✗missed	+15
Mar 16	at BKN	47%	118–119	W 101–96	✗missed	+6
Mar 15	at CHI	40%	115–119	W 117–114	✗missed	+7
Mar 13	vs MIL	47%	118–119	L 124–133	✓correct	−8
Mar 11	at PHX	30%	113–121	W 128–119	✗missed	+17
Mar 9	vs NYK	45%	117–119	W 122–117	✗missed	+7
Mar 6	vs NOP	45%	113–115	W 123–108	✗missed	+17
Mar 4	vs MIN	53%	117–116	L 134–138	✗missed	−5
Mar 3	vs LAC	60%	120–116	W 128–127	✓correct	−3
Feb 28	at OKC	42%	117–120	W 123–117	✗missed	+9
Feb 26	at OKC	37%	117–122	W 124–115	✗missed	+14
Feb 24	at LAC	45%	114–116	W 176–175	✗missed	+3
Feb 23	vs POR	68%	126–119	W 133–116	✓correct	+10
Feb 14	at PHX	45%	113–115	L 109–120	✓correct	−9
Feb 11	vs DAL	47%	113–114	W 133–128	✗missed	+6
Feb 10	vs DAL	65%	114–108	L 114–122	✗missed	−14
Feb 8	at HOU	60%	121–117	W 130–128	✓correct	−2
Feb 6	at HOU	60%	121–117	W 140–120	✓correct	+16
Feb 5	at NOP	72%	118–109	L 104–136	✗missed	−41
Feb 3	at IND	60%	123–119	L 104–107	✗missed	−7
Feb 1	at SAS	60%	123–119	W 119–109	✓correct	+6
Jan 30	at MIN	40%	117–121	W 118–111	✗missed	+11
Jan 28	at MIN	45%	117–119	L 110–117	✓correct	−5
Jan 25	vs TOR	58%	116–113	L 95–113	✗missed	−21
Jan 23	vs MEM	58%	119–116	W 133–100	✓correct	+30
Jan 21	vs PHI	45%	115–117	L 127–129	✓correct	±0
Jan 20	vs OKC	60%	119–115	W 118–113	✓correct	+1
Jan 18	at LAL	47%	119–120	W 116–111	✗missed	+6
Jan 15	at SAS	60%	124–120	W 132–119	✓correct	+9
Jan 13	vs HOU	83%	123–108	W 139–114	✓correct	+10
Jan 11	vs HOU	80%	123–110	W 135–115	✓correct	+7
Jan 9	vs ORL	63%	122–117	W 136–111	✓correct	+20
Jan 7	vs LAL	53%	119–118	L 134–136	✗missed	−3
Jan 4	vs ATL	55%	119–117	L 117–120	✗missed	−5
Jan 3	at UTA	47%	116–117	W 117–115	✗missed	+3
Jan 1	at MEM	42%	112–115	L 108–118	✓correct	−7
Dec 30	vs UTA	58%	117–114	W 126–125	✓correct	−2
Dec 28	vs DEN	37%	114–119	W 127–126	✗missed	+6
Dec 27	vs DEN	45%	116–118	L 106–113	✓correct	−5
Dec 23	vs WAS	65%	119–113	L 111–125	✗missed	−20
Dec 21	vs LAL	65%	119–113	W 134–120	✓correct	+8
Dec 19	vs CHA	83%	121–106	L 119–125	✗missed	−21
Dec 16	at DET	70%	120–112	W 122–113	✓correct	+1
Dec 14	at TOR	42%	111–114	W 124–123	✗missed	+4
Dec 13	at PHI	45%	111–113	L 103–123	✓correct	−18
Dec 11	at NYK	45%	111–113	L 99–112	✓correct	−11
Dec 9	at CLE	37%	106–111	W 106–95	✗missed	+16
Dec 7	at MIL	35%	111–117	L 113–126	✓correct	−7
Dec 4	vs CHI	65%	119–113	W 110–101	✓correct	+3
Dec 3	at LAC	47%	116–117	W 123–96	✗missed	+28
Nov 30	vs IND	53%	119–118	W 137–114	✓correct	+22
Nov 28	vs PHX	45%	117–119	L 117–122	✓correct	−3
Nov 25	at BOS	35%	114–120	L 104–122	✓correct	−12
Nov 23	at ATL	32%	113–120	L 106–115	✓correct	−2
Nov 22	at MEM	28%	111–120	W 113–109	✗missed	+13
Nov 20	vs DET	83%	122–107	W 137–129	✓correct	−7
Nov 17	vs SAS	81%	121–107	W 130–112	✓correct	+4
Nov 15	vs BKN	40%	109–113	W 153–121	✗missed	+36
Nov 13	vs GSW	37%	114–119	W 122–115	✗missed	+12
Nov 11	at LAL	63%	113–108	W 120–114	✓correct	+1
Nov 9	vs CLE	26%	105–115	W 127–120	✗missed	+17
Nov 7	at GSW	42%	111–114	L 113–116	✓correct	±0
Nov 5	at ORL	47%	113–114	W 126–123	✗missed	+4
Nov 2	at MIA	30%	106–114	L 107–110	✓correct	+5
Oct 31	at CHA	24%	108–119	W 115–108	✗missed	+18
Oct 29	vs MIA	35%	106–112	W 119–113	✗missed	+12
Oct 27	vs MEM	32%	111–118	L 110–125	✓correct	−8
Oct 23	at GSW	28%	106–115	L 125–130	✓correct	+4
Oct 22	vs LAC	35%	110–116	L 109–111	✓correct	+4
Oct 19	vs POR	81%	116–102	L 108–115	✗missed	−21

Surprise games

All SAC surprises

Across every graded season. The percentage is the pregame chance the forecast gave the team that won.

Most unexpected SAC wins

13%SAC beat DEN128–123Nov 22, 2025-26 · forecast DEN128–111 · missed margin by 22
14%SAC beat LAC118–109Mar 14, 2025-26 · forecast LAC125–109 · missed margin by 25
19%SAC beat MIA127–111Dec 6, 2025-26 · forecast MIA124–111 · missed margin by 29
22%SAC beat TOR123–115Apr 1, 2025-26 · forecast TOR119–108 · missed margin by 19
22%SAC beat HOU111–98Jan 11, 2025-26 · forecast HOU117–106 · missed margin by 24

Most unexpected SAC losses

10%SAS beat SAC142–134Apr 2, 2022-23 · forecast SAC124–103 · missed margin by 29
17%CHA beat SAC125–119Dec 19, 2022-23 · forecast SAC121–106 · missed margin by 21
18%DET beat SAC133–120Feb 7, 2023-24 · forecast SAC127–111 · missed margin by 29
19%POR beat SAC115–108Oct 19, 2022-23 · forecast SAC116–102 · missed margin by 21
19%CHA beat SAC111–104Jan 2, 2023-24 · forecast SAC123–108 · missed margin by 22

Largest margin misses

47%MEM beat SAC137–96Nov 20, 2025-26 · forecast SAC116–115 · missed margin by 42
28%NOP beat SAC136–104Feb 5, 2022-23 · forecast SAC118–109 · missed margin by 41
37%DAL beat SAC132–96Mar 26, 2023-24 · forecast SAC114–110 · missed margin by 40
51%NOP beat SAC129–93Nov 20, 2023-24 · forecast SAC116–114 · missed margin by 38
51%SAC beat MIL129–94Mar 12, 2023-24 · forecast MIL115–113 · missed margin by 37

Definitions

Expected wins: The sum of the team's pregame win probabilities over the games in the sample (home: the stored home win probability; road: one minus it).
Wins vs expectation: Actual wins minus expected wins. It describes results relative to the forecasts, not why they differed.
Margin error: The team's actual margin minus its forecast margin, in points. Positive means the team did better than forecast.
Error variability: The sample standard deviation of margin errors. Higher means the forecasts for this team's games were less consistent.
Winner picked: The share of the team's games in which the forecast winner won, whichever team that was. Teams play different mixes of close and lopsided games, so this alone is not a fair measure of how hard a team is to forecast.
Average margin miss: The mean absolute margin error. This is the headline measure of how hard a team's games were for this model to forecast.
Average margin error: The mean signed margin error. Consistently positive means the model underrated the team in this sample; negative, overrated.
Brier score: The mean squared difference between the team's pregame win probability and the result (1 for a win, 0 for a loss). It rewards confident correct forecasts and penalises confident wrong ones.
Intervals and samples: Ranges are 90% bootstrap intervals (1,000 resamples of the team's games). Under 20 games no ranking is shown; 20 to 59 games is exploratory; 60 or more is roughly a full season.

More on how forecasts are made and tested: Methodology.

Upcoming

Recent results

Predictability

2026-27 (in progress)

2025-26

2024-25

2023-24

2022-23

2022-23 to 2026-27

Surprise games

Most unexpected SAC wins

Most unexpected SAC losses

Largest margin misses

Recent results the forecast got wrong

Definitions