The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Apr 5

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Pelicans

Friday, April 5, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

SAS 1–2@NOP 3–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: SAS 27 percent, NOP 73 percent. SAS Spurs 27% proj. 102 · final 111 NOP Pelicans · home 73% proj. 112 · final 109
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
SAS San Antonio Spurs 102 111 +9
NOP New Orleans Pelicans (home) 112 109 −3

Forecast: New Orleans Pelicans to win, 73% win probability, projected margin 10.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputSASNOP
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13691585
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +286
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −7.0+4.5
Games played this season 7676
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 107.9114.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 111.4112.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 47.522.2
Rest days 32
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAS1369NOP1585

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAS1369

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1326 → started this one at 1369
  2. First 66 games: −9.9
  3. Last 10 games: +9.2
  • LDEN106–117−4.3
  • WBKN122–115+8.9
  • LDAL107–113−4.6
  • LMEM97–99−6.7
  • LPHX106–131−9.8
  • WPHX104–102+8.3
  • W@UTA118–111+12.1
  • WNYK130–126+10.2
  • LGSW113–117−3.5
  • L@DEN105–110−1.4

NOP1585

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1535 → started this one at 1527
  2. First 66 games: +88.3
  3. Last 10 games: −30.0
  • WPOR126–107+2.9
  • W@BKN104–91+7.6
  • L@ORL106–121−14.6
  • W@MIA111–88+18.5
  • W@DET114–101+3.6
  • LOKC112–119−11.4
  • WMIL107–100+5.4
  • LBOS92–104−9.6
  • LPHX111–124−17.3
  • LORL108–117−15.1
Season scoring marginSAS−7.0NOP+4.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAS−7.0

Scores 112.1, allows 119.1 over 76 games: −7.0 a game.

NOP+4.5

Scores 115.1, allows 110.6 over 76 games: +4.5 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10SAS107.9NOP114.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.7).

SAS107.9scored, −6.8 vs league

FactorSASLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.3%54.8%−3.7
Turnovers (TOV%)12.9%11.5%−1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.5%24.1%+0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1920.195−0.1
Everything else−1.3

NOP114.6scored, −0.1 vs league

FactorNOPLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.7%54.8%−0.1
Turnovers (TOV%)10.4%11.5%+1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.5%24.1%−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1940.195−0.0
Everything else−0.9
Defensive rating, last 10SAS111.4NOP112.2

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.7).

SAS111.4allowed, −3.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.9%54.8%−0.1
Turnovers (TOV%)11.3%11.5%−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.1%24.1%+1.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1410.195+1.5
Everything else+0.4

NOP112.2allowed, −2.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.8%54.8%−0.0
Turnovers (TOV%)12.2%11.5%+0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.8%24.1%+1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1860.195+0.2
Everything else−0.1
Pace, last 10average 98.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAS 100.6 and NOP 95.3 → average 98.0 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.2)

Rotation points missingSAS47.5NOP22.2

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAS47.5pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Devin Vassell21.237.48
Keldon Johnson14.329.77
Jeremy Sochan12.030.18

Source: official injury report, 2024-04-05 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

NOP22.2pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Brandon Ingram15.729.53
Jose Alvarado6.522.46

Source: official injury report, 2024-04-05 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestSAS3 daysNOP2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAS3days

Last played Apr 2 against DEN.

NOP2days

Last played Apr 3 against ORL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 2@DEN105–11042-10513-448-16715104.0110.0100.5
Mar 31GSW113–11740-8917-4316-181915114.1118.299.0
Mar 29NYK130–12644-8216-4026-32158122.6117.896.5
Mar 27@UTA118–11144-8616-3314-21218110.3103.7107.0
Mar 25PHX104–10240-918-3116-1975105.1104.198.5
Mar 23PHX106–13140-859-3317-21158107.1132.399.0
Mar 22MEM97–9937-957-3816-23161592.494.3105.0
Mar 19DAL107–11339-8914-3915-21159103.9108.7103.5
Mar 17BKN122–11546-999-3721-231713110.9105.599.2
Mar 15DEN106–11737-8111-2921-271612108.2119.498.0

NOP

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 3ORL108–11736-7612-2924-28147114.9123.294.5
Apr 1PHX111–12442-8911-2716-24912118.1131.994.0
Mar 30BOS92–10434-8613-3511-18910100.0111.892.5
Mar 28MIL107–10036-918-3227-34611108.1103.198.0
Mar 26OKC112–11939-8614-3820-2395113.1119.099.5
Mar 24@DET114–10141-8111-3421-31106117.5103.197.5
Mar 22@MIA111–8842-8218-369-121211124.798.989.0
Mar 21@ORL106–12142-786-2016-21183105.0121.0100.5
Mar 19@BKN104–9142-8310-3410-131311115.6100.090.5
Mar 16POR126–10752-9713-339-10910128.6110.397.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
27%
pregame chance the forecast gave SAS, the winner
the forecast favored NOP
12 pts
margin miss
forecast +10, actual −2 for NOP
16th
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
479th
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 1.32 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statSASNOP
Final score111109
Field goals42–83 · 50.6%44–86 · 51.2%
Three-pointers17–46 · 37.0%9–29 · 31.0%
Free throws10–13 · 76.9%12–12 · 100.0%
Rebounds3441
Assists3428
Turnovers1617
Steals911
Blocks82

How the model does with these teams over time: San Antonio Spurs · New Orleans Pelicans

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (NOP)+10−2−12
Total points214220+6
SAS points102111+9
NOP points112109−3

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
SAS18333525–111
NOP27342523–109

Recent form before this game

San Antonio Spurs

DateOpponentResult
Apr 2 at DEN L 105–110
Mar 31 vs GSW L 113–117
Mar 29 vs NYK W 130–126
Mar 27 at UTA W 118–111
Mar 25 vs PHX W 104–102

New Orleans Pelicans

DateOpponentResult
Apr 3 vs ORL L 108–117
Apr 1 vs PHX L 111–124
Mar 30 vs BOS L 92–104
Mar 28 vs MIL W 107–100
Mar 26 vs OKC L 112–119

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Feb 2 2023-24 NOP at SAS NOP 114 – 113 SAS
Dec 17 2023-24 NOP at SAS NOP 146 – 110 SAS
Dec 1 2023-24 SAS at NOP SAS 106 – 121 NOP
Mar 21 2022-23 SAS at NOP SAS 84 – 119 NOP
Dec 22 2022-23 SAS at NOP SAS 117 – 126 NOP