Eastern Conference · 2026-27

New York Knicks NYK

5–4

2026-27 record

1679

Elo rating

with the forecast of Nov 7

114.1

Offensive rating

last 10 games

108.7

Defensive rating

last 10, lower is better

96.0

Pace

possessions per game

Hover the ball to see a season.

Every graded NYK game, one dot each, oldest at the center. 259 of 396 forecasts picked the winner (colored dots).

Elo rating, recent games

Pregame Elo stored with each of NYK's last 82 forecasts. Dashed: 1500, the long-run average.

Elo rating recorded with each team's most recent forecast. Higher is stronger; 1500 is the long-run average. NYK ranks 2 of 30.

Upcoming

Schedule

Nov 10 7:30 PM ET

MIL Milwaukee Bucks 1–9 –

@NYK New York Knicks 5–4 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 11 7:00 PM ET

CLE Cleveland Cavaliers 5–5 –

@NYK New York Knicks 5–4 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 13 7:00 PM ET

NYK New York Knicks 5–4 –

@IND Indiana Pacers 3–7 –

Forecast coming Details

Recent results

Predictability

How closely the forecasts tracked NYK games. A team can be hard for this model to forecast whether it is good or bad: misses come from the model's limits, roster changes, missing information and ordinary game-to-game variation. Compare all 30 teams

2026-27 (in progress)

Small sample: 9 games. These figures are a running log, not a measurement, and no ranking is shown.

11.3 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 7.9 to 14.7

−2.2

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -8.8 to 4.4

13.4 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.7

56%

winner picked

9 games involving NYK

5 / 6.4

actual / expected wins

gap −1.4

0.279

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 9 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	NYK win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 7	at CLE	65%	113–108	W 109–97	✓correct	+7
Nov 4	vs CHI	77%	118–108	W 135–105	✓correct	+20
Nov 2	vs BKN	80%	117–105	W 103–90	✓correct	+1
Oct 30	at PHI	70%	114–107	L 93–98	✗missed	−12
Oct 28	at CHI	80%	124–112	W 133–127	✓correct	−6
Oct 27	vs DET	53%	110–109	W 111–97	✓correct	+13
Oct 25	vs ORL	78%	114–103	L 102–111	✗missed	−20
Oct 23	at BOS	62%	112–108	L 103–107	✗missed	−8
Oct 20	vs PHI	75%	116–107	L 100–106	✗missed	−15

2025-26

Across 99 graded games, NYK finished an average of 4.0 points better than the forecast margin (90% interval +1.2 to +6.9).

13.4 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 11.6 to 15.4; 30th smallest of 30

+4.0

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval 1.2 to 6.9

17.1 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.4

73%

winner picked

99 games involving NYK

67 / 59.4

actual / expected wins

gap +7.6

0.202

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 99 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	NYK win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Jun 10 PO	vs SAS	83%	109–95	W 107–106	✓correct	−13
Jun 8 PO	vs SAS	70%	112–106	L 111–115	✗missed	−10
Jun 5 PO	at SAS	67%	108–105	W 105–104	✓correct	−2
Jun 3 PO	at SAS	22%	99–110	W 105–95	✗missed	+21
May 25 PO	at CLE	61%	100–96	W 130–93	✓correct	+33
May 23 PO	at CLE	53%	101–100	W 121–108	✓correct	+12
May 21 PO	vs CLE	69%	111–104	W 109–93	✓correct	+9
May 19 PO	vs CLE	67%	111–105	W 115–104	✓correct	+5
May 10 PO	at PHI	64%	105–100	W 144–114	✓correct	+25
May 8 PO	at PHI	74%	106–97	W 108–94	✓correct	+5
May 6 PO	vs PHI	82%	114–101	W 108–102	✓correct	−7
May 4 PO	vs PHI	56%	105–103	W 137–98	✓correct	+37
Apr 30 PO	at ATL	55%	110–108	W 140–89	✓correct	+49
Apr 28 PO	vs ATL	53%	107–106	W 126–97	✓correct	+28
Apr 25 PO	at ATL	58%	109–106	W 114–98	✓correct	+13
Apr 23 PO	at ATL	56%	107–105	L 108–109	✗missed	−3
Apr 20 PO	vs ATL	67%	109–103	L 106–107	✗missed	−7
Apr 18 PO	vs ATL	61%	109–105	W 113–102	✓correct	+7
Apr 12	vs CHA	39%	109–113	L 96–110	✓correct	−10
Apr 10	vs TOR	56%	115–113	W 112–95	✓correct	+15
Apr 9	vs BOS	53%	110–109	W 112–106	✓correct	+5
Apr 6	at ATL	58%	115–112	W 108–105	✓correct	±0
Apr 3	vs CHI	80%	125–113	W 136–96	✓correct	+28
Apr 1	at MEM	80%	119–107	W 130–119	✓correct	−1
Mar 31	at HOU	58%	113–110	L 94–111	✗missed	−20
Mar 29	at OKC	47%	111–112	L 100–111	✓correct	−10
Mar 26	at CHA	61%	114–110	L 103–114	✗missed	−15
Mar 24	vs NOP	67%	118–112	W 121–116	✓correct	−1
Mar 22	vs WAS	90%	124–105	W 145–113	✓correct	+13
Mar 20	at BKN	85%	119–104	W 93–92	✓correct	−14
Mar 17	vs IND	85%	119–104	W 136–110	✓correct	+11
Mar 15	vs GSW	82%	120–107	W 110–107	✓correct	−10
Mar 13	at IND	86%	125–109	W 101–92	✓correct	−7
Mar 11	at UTA	69%	118–111	W 134–117	✓correct	+10
Mar 9	at LAC	53%	111–110	L 118–126	✗missed	−9
Mar 8	at LAL	64%	112–107	L 97–110	✗missed	−18
Mar 6	at DEN	44%	115–117	W 142–103	✗missed	+41
Mar 4	vs OKC	53%	113–112	L 100–103	✗missed	−4
Mar 3	at TOR	53%	113–112	W 111–95	✓correct	+15
Mar 1	vs SAS	44%	115–117	W 114–89	✗missed	+27
Feb 27	at MIL	61%	113–109	W 127–98	✓correct	+25
Feb 24	at CLE	44%	112–114	L 94–109	✓correct	−13
Feb 22	at CHI	80%	123–111	W 105–99	✓correct	−6
Feb 21	vs HOU	56%	108–106	W 108–106	✓correct	±0
Feb 19	vs DET	47%	111–112	L 111–126	✓correct	−14
Feb 11	at PHI	53%	112–111	W 138–89	✓correct	+48
Feb 10	vs IND	80%	118–106	L 134–137	✗missed	−15
Feb 8	at BOS	34%	102–108	W 111–89	✗missed	+28
Feb 6	at DET	39%	109–113	L 80–118	✓correct	−34
Feb 4	vs DEN	64%	111–106	W 134–127	✓correct	+2
Feb 3	at WAS	69%	115–108	W 132–101	✓correct	+24
Feb 1	vs LAL	64%	115–110	W 112–100	✓correct	+7
Jan 30	vs POR	61%	113–109	W 127–97	✓correct	+26
Jan 28	at TOR	44%	108–110	W 119–92	✗missed	+29
Jan 27	vs SAC	74%	116–107	W 103–87	✓correct	+7
Jan 24	at PHI	44%	110–112	W 112–109	✗missed	+5
Jan 21	vs BKN	61%	114–110	W 120–66	✓correct	+50
Jan 19	vs DAL	67%	119–113	L 97–114	✗missed	−23
Jan 17	vs PHX	47%	113–114	L 99–106	✓correct	−6
Jan 15	at GSW	36%	112–117	L 113–126	✓correct	−8
Jan 14	at SAC	69%	117–110	L 101–112	✗missed	−18
Jan 11	at POR	47%	114–115	W 123–114	✗missed	+10
Jan 9	at PHX	36%	114–119	L 107–112	✓correct	±0
Jan 7	vs LAC	53%	116–115	W 123–111	✓correct	+11
Jan 5	at DET	36%	114–119	L 90–121	✓correct	−26
Jan 3	vs PHI	59%	121–118	L 119–130	✗missed	−14
Jan 2	vs ATL	71%	128–120	L 99–111	✗missed	−20
Dec 31	at SAS	41%	116–119	L 132–134	✓correct	+1
Dec 29	at NOP	78%	126–115	W 130–125	✓correct	−6
Dec 27	at ATL	61%	121–117	W 128–125	✓correct	−1
Dec 25	vs CLE	59%	121–118	W 126–124	✓correct	−1
Dec 23	at MIN	34%	111–117	L 104–115	✓correct	−5
Dec 21	vs MIA	78%	120–109	W 132–125	✓correct	−4
Dec 19	vs PHI	80%	118–106	L 107–116	✗missed	−21
Dec 18	at IND	64%	112–107	W 114–113	✓correct	−4
Dec 9	at TOR	66%	113–107	W 117–101	✓correct	+10
Dec 7	vs ORL	56%	118–116	W 106–100	✓correct	+4
Dec 5	vs UTA	82%	126–113	W 146–112	✓correct	+21
Dec 3	vs CHA	80%	119–107	W 119–104	✓correct	+3
Dec 2	at BOS	47%	115–116	L 117–123	✓correct	−5
Nov 30	vs TOR	67%	120–114	W 116–94	✓correct	+16
Nov 28	vs MIL	69%	121–114	W 118–109	✓correct	+2
Nov 26	at CHA	66%	119–113	W 129–101	✓correct	+22
Nov 24	at BKN	64%	118–113	W 113–100	✓correct	+8
Nov 22	at ORL	47%	117–118	L 121–133	✓correct	−11
Nov 19	at DAL	56%	117–115	W 113–111	✓correct	±0
Nov 17	at MIA	47%	121–122	L 113–115	✓correct	−1
Nov 14	vs MIA	61%	122–118	W 140–132	✓correct	+4
Nov 12	vs ORL	69%	121–114	L 107–124	✗missed	−24
Nov 11	vs MEM	69%	122–115	W 133–120	✓correct	+6
Nov 9	vs BKN	82%	120–107	W 134–98	✓correct	+23
Nov 5	vs MIN	53%	119–118	W 137–114	✓correct	+22
Nov 3	vs WAS	83%	122–108	W 119–102	✓correct	+3
Nov 2	vs CHI	47%	118–119	W 128–116	✗missed	+13
Oct 31	at CHI	36%	113–118	L 125–135	✓correct	−5
Oct 28	at MIL	53%	116–115	L 111–121	✗missed	−11
Oct 26	at MIA	56%	115–113	L 107–115	✗missed	−10
Oct 24	vs BOS	44%	109–111	W 105–95	✗missed	+12
Oct 22	vs CLE	34%	110–116	W 119–111	✗missed	+14

2024-25

11.9 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.5 to 13.1; 25th smallest of 30

+0.3

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.1 to 2.5

14.4 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

63%

winner picked

100 games involving NYK

61 / 57.2

actual / expected wins

gap +3.8

0.228

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 100 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	NYK win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
May 31 PO	at IND	36%	106–111	L 108–125	✓correct	−12
May 29 PO	vs IND	54%	109–108	W 111–94	✓correct	+16
May 27 PO	at IND	46%	108–109	L 121–130	✓correct	−8
May 25 PO	at IND	38%	108–112	W 106–100	✗missed	+10
May 23 PO	vs IND	57%	107–105	L 109–114	✗missed	−7
May 21 PO	vs IND	62%	107–103	L 135–138	✗missed	−7
May 16 PO	vs BOS	64%	101–96	W 119–81	✓correct	+33
May 14 PO	at BOS	19%	97–110	L 102–127	✓correct	−12
May 12 PO	vs BOS	49%	100–101	W 121–113	✗missed	+9
May 10 PO	vs BOS	59%	102–99	L 93–115	✗missed	−25
May 7 PO	at BOS	31%	100–107	W 91–90	✗missed	+8
May 5 PO	at BOS	23%	100–111	W 108–105	✗missed	+14
May 1 PO	at DET	38%	103–107	W 116–113	✗missed	+7
Apr 29 PO	vs DET	67%	109–103	L 103–106	✗missed	−9
Apr 27 PO	at DET	36%	105–110	W 94–93	✗missed	+6
Apr 24 PO	at DET	38%	103–107	W 118–116	✗missed	+6
Apr 21 PO	vs DET	71%	111–103	L 94–100	✗missed	−14
Apr 19 PO	vs DET	75%	109–99	W 123–112	✓correct	+1
Apr 13	at BKN	61%	113–108	W 113–105	✓correct	+3
Apr 11	vs CLE	57%	111–109	L 102–108	✗missed	−8
Apr 10	at DET	43%	111–113	L 106–115	✓correct	−7
Apr 8	vs BOS	34%	105–112	L 117–119	✓correct	+5
Apr 6	vs PHX	73%	116–107	W 112–98	✓correct	+5
Apr 5	at ATL	51%	117–116	W 121–105	✓correct	+15
Apr 2	at CLE	38%	112–116	L 105–124	✓correct	−15
Apr 1	vs PHI	81%	116–103	W 105–91	✓correct	+1
Mar 30	vs POR	62%	113–109	W 110–93	✓correct	+13
Mar 28	at MIL	43%	107–109	W 116–107	✗missed	+11
Mar 26	vs LAC	49%	108–109	L 113–126	✓correct	−12
Mar 25	vs DAL	62%	115–111	W 128–113	✓correct	+11
Mar 22	vs WAS	73%	113–104	W 122–103	✓correct	+10
Mar 20	at CHA	56%	111–108	L 98–115	✗missed	−20
Mar 19	at SAS	59%	117–113	L 105–120	✗missed	−19
Mar 17	vs MIA	67%	111–105	W 116–95	✓correct	+15
Mar 15	at GSW	36%	109–114	L 94–97	✓correct	+2
Mar 12	at POR	36%	111–116	W 114–113	✗missed	+6
Mar 10	at SAC	33%	107–113	W 133–104	✗missed	+35
Mar 7	at LAC	41%	111–114	L 95–105	✓correct	−7
Mar 6	at LAL	43%	111–113	L 109–113	✓correct	−2
Mar 4	vs GSW	59%	118–115	L 102–114	✗missed	−15
Mar 2	at MIA	59%	112–108	W 116–112	✓correct	±0
Feb 28	at MEM	29%	114–122	W 114–113	✗missed	+9
Feb 26	vs PHI	75%	121–111	W 110–105	✓correct	−5
Feb 23	at BOS	38%	111–115	L 105–118	✓correct	−9
Feb 21	at CLE	18%	114–128	L 105–142	✓correct	−23
Feb 20	vs CHI	81%	124–111	W 113–111	✓correct	−11
Feb 12	vs ATL	71%	121–113	W 149–148	✓correct	−7
Feb 11	at IND	41%	115–118	W 128–115	✗missed	+16
Feb 8	vs BOS	44%	110–113	L 104–131	✓correct	−24
Feb 4	at TOR	56%	113–110	W 121–115	✓correct	+3
Feb 3	vs HOU	57%	113–111	W 124–118	✓correct	+4
Feb 1	vs LAL	71%	115–107	L 112–128	✗missed	−24
Jan 29	vs DEN	59%	115–112	W 122–112	✓correct	+7
Jan 27	vs MEM	59%	117–114	W 143–106	✓correct	+34
Jan 25	vs SAC	59%	118–115	W 143–120	✓correct	+20
Jan 21	at BKN	69%	115–107	W 99–95	✓correct	−4
Jan 20	vs ATL	69%	120–113	W 119–110	✓correct	+2
Jan 17	vs MIN	71%	115–107	L 99–116	✗missed	−25
Jan 15	at PHI	54%	112–110	W 125–119	✓correct	+4
Jan 13	vs DET	71%	117–109	L 119–124	✗missed	−13
Jan 12	vs MIL	73%	118–109	W 140–106	✓correct	+25
Jan 10	vs OKC	54%	113–112	L 101–126	✗missed	−26
Jan 8	vs TOR	89%	124–105	W 112–98	✓correct	−5
Jan 6	vs ORL	73%	114–105	L 94–103	✗missed	−18
Jan 4	at CHI	66%	118–111	L 126–139	✗missed	−20
Jan 3	at OKC	29%	109–117	L 107–117	✓correct	−2
Jan 1	vs UTA	85%	123–107	W 119–103	✓correct	±0
Dec 30	at WAS	71%	121–112	W 126–106	✓correct	+11
Dec 28	at WAS	69%	121–113	W 136–132	✓correct	−4
Dec 27	at ORL	61%	110–105	W 108–85	✓correct	+18
Dec 25	vs SAS	79%	122–110	W 117–114	✓correct	−9
Dec 23	vs TOR	81%	120–107	W 139–125	✓correct	+1
Dec 21	at NOP	73%	118–108	W 104–93	✓correct	+1
Dec 19	at MIN	51%	108–107	W 133–107	✓correct	+25
Dec 15	at ORL	46%	108–109	W 100–91	✗missed	+10
Dec 11	vs ATL	73%	122–113	L 100–108	✗missed	−17
Dec 9	at TOR	59%	118–114	W 113–108	✓correct	+1
Dec 7	vs DET	81%	119–106	L 111–120	✗missed	−22
Dec 5	vs CHA	84%	120–105	W 125–101	✓correct	+9
Dec 3	vs ORL	57%	111–109	W 121–106	✓correct	+13
Dec 1	vs NOP	82%	119–105	W 118–85	✓correct	+19
Nov 29	at CHA	73%	116–106	W 99–98	✓correct	−9
Nov 27	at DAL	41%	115–118	L 114–129	✓correct	−12
Nov 25	at DEN	36%	114–119	W 145–118	✗missed	+32
Nov 23	at UTA	71%	120–111	L 106–121	✗missed	−24
Nov 20	at PHX	61%	113–108	W 138–122	✓correct	+11
Nov 18	vs WAS	86%	124–107	W 134–106	✓correct	+11
Nov 17	vs BKN	73%	117–108	W 114–104	✓correct	+1
Nov 15	vs BKN	71%	115–107	W 124–122	✓correct	−6
Nov 13	vs CHI	75%	122–112	L 123–124	✗missed	−11
Nov 12	at PHI	61%	114–109	W 111–99	✓correct	+7
Nov 10	at IND	54%	112–110	L 121–132	✗missed	−13
Nov 8	vs MIL	64%	115–110	W 116–94	✓correct	+17
Nov 6	at ATL	59%	116–112	L 116–121	✗missed	−9
Nov 4	at HOU	43%	109–111	L 97–109	✓correct	−10
Nov 1	at DET	66%	115–108	W 128–98	✓correct	+23
Oct 30	at MIA	43%	108–110	W 116–107	✗missed	+11
Oct 28	vs CLE	54%	111–110	L 104–110	✗missed	−7
Oct 25	vs IND	62%	113–109	W 123–98	✓correct	+21
Oct 22	at BOS	19%	106–119	L 109–132	✓correct	−10

2023-24

11.5 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.1 to 12.8; 21st smallest of 30

+0.2

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.2 to 2.6

14.1 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.3

64%

winner picked

95 games involving NYK

57 / 53.7

actual / expected wins

gap +3.3

0.217

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 95 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	NYK win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
May 19 PO	vs IND	57%	111–110	L 109–130	✗missed	−22
May 17 PO	at IND	39%	108–111	L 103–116	✓correct	−10
May 14 PO	vs IND	59%	109–107	W 121–91	✓correct	+28
May 12 PO	at IND	41%	109–111	L 89–121	✓correct	−30
May 10 PO	at IND	43%	109–110	L 106–111	✓correct	−4
May 8 PO	vs IND	59%	109–107	W 130–121	✓correct	+7
May 6 PO	vs IND	63%	110–106	W 121–117	✓correct	±0
May 2 PO	at PHI	41%	104–106	W 118–115	✗missed	+5
Apr 30 PO	vs PHI	65%	107–102	L 106–112	✗missed	−11
Apr 28 PO	at PHI	49%	105–103	W 97–92	✓correct	+3
Apr 25 PO	at PHI	49%	106–104	L 114–125	✗missed	−13
Apr 22 PO	vs PHI	68%	108–101	W 104–101	✓correct	−4
Apr 20 PO	vs PHI	73%	114–104	W 111–104	✓correct	−3
Apr 14	vs CHI	61%	107–104	W 120–119	✓correct	−2
Apr 12	vs BKN	67%	109–103	W 111–107	✓correct	−2
Apr 11	at BOS	51%	109–106	W 118–109	✓correct	+6
Apr 9	at CHI	63%	114–105	W 128–117	✓correct	+2
Apr 7	at MIL	47%	111–110	W 122–109	✓correct	+12
Apr 5	at CHI	43%	114–115	L 100–108	✓correct	−7
Apr 4	vs SAC	67%	110–104	W 120–109	✓correct	+5
Apr 2	at MIA	47%	108–107	L 99–109	✗missed	−11
Mar 31	vs OKC	61%	110–107	L 112–113	✗missed	−4
Mar 29	at SAS	59%	109–102	L 126–130	✗missed	−11
Mar 27	at TOR	74%	115–100	W 145–101	✓correct	+29
Mar 25	vs DET	83%	113–96	W 124–99	✓correct	+8
Mar 23	vs BKN	61%	107–104	W 105–93	✓correct	+9
Mar 21	at DEN	47%	105–104	L 100–113	✗missed	−14
Mar 18	at GSW	47%	105–104	W 119–112	✓correct	+6
Mar 16	at SAC	41%	108–110	W 98–91	✗missed	+9
Mar 14	at POR	51%	108–105	W 105–93	✓correct	+9
Mar 12	vs PHI	57%	107–106	W 106–79	✓correct	+26
Mar 10	vs PHI	63%	108–104	L 73–79	✗missed	−10
Mar 8	vs ORL	59%	111–109	W 98–74	✓correct	+22
Mar 5	vs ATL	70%	114–106	L 100–116	✗missed	−24
Mar 3	at CLE	43%	110–111	W 107–98	✗missed	+10
Feb 29	vs GSW	61%	115–112	L 99–110	✗missed	−14
Feb 27	vs NOP	61%	112–109	L 92–115	✗missed	−26
Feb 26	vs DET	85%	121–102	W 113–111	✓correct	−17
Feb 24	vs BOS	51%	110–112	L 102–116	✓correct	−12
Feb 22	at PHI	43%	114–115	W 110–96	✗missed	+15
Feb 14	at ORL	47%	106–105	L 100–118	✗missed	−19
Feb 12	at HOU	47%	109–108	L 103–105	✗missed	−3
Feb 10	vs IND	59%	113–111	L 111–125	✗missed	−16
Feb 8	vs DAL	61%	114–111	L 108–122	✗missed	−17
Feb 6	vs MEM	72%	113–104	W 123–113	✓correct	+1
Feb 3	vs LAL	63%	117–113	L 105–113	✗missed	−12
Feb 1	vs IND	63%	114–110	W 109–105	✓correct	±0
Jan 30	vs UTA	59%	115–113	W 118–103	✓correct	+13
Jan 29	at CHA	55%	112–107	W 113–92	✓correct	+16
Jan 27	vs MIA	57%	108–107	W 125–109	✓correct	+15
Jan 25	vs DEN	59%	110–108	W 122–84	✓correct	+36
Jan 23	at BKN	63%	113–104	W 108–103	✓correct	−4
Jan 20	vs TOR	68%	117–110	W 126–100	✓correct	+19
Jan 18	vs WAS	79%	122–108	W 113–109	✓correct	−10
Jan 17	vs HOU	68%	118–111	W 109–94	✓correct	+8
Jan 15	vs ORL	67%	115–109	L 94–98	✗missed	−10
Jan 13	at MEM	67%	121–110	W 106–94	✓correct	+1
Jan 11	at DAL	49%	119–117	L 124–128	✗missed	−6
Jan 9	vs POR	84%	126–108	W 112–84	✓correct	+10
Jan 6	at WAS	61%	125–117	W 121–105	✓correct	+8
Jan 5	at PHI	35%	112–117	W 128–92	✗missed	+41
Jan 3	vs CHI	61%	118–115	W 116–100	✓correct	+13
Jan 1	vs MIN	59%	118–116	W 112–106	✓correct	+4
Dec 30	at IND	41%	119–121	L 126–140	✓correct	−12
Dec 29	at ORL	47%	113–112	L 108–117	✗missed	−10
Dec 27	at OKC	37%	113–117	L 120–129	✓correct	−5
Dec 25	vs MIL	47%	118–122	W 129–122	✗missed	+11
Dec 23	vs MIL	59%	119–117	L 111–130	✗missed	−21
Dec 20	at BKN	43%	115–116	W 121–102	✗missed	+20
Dec 18	at LAL	47%	115–114	W 114–109	✓correct	+4
Dec 16	at LAC	41%	111–113	L 122–144	✓correct	−20
Dec 15	at PHX	49%	115–113	W 139–122	✓correct	+15
Dec 13	at UTA	57%	115–109	L 113–117	✗missed	−10
Dec 11	vs TOR	68%	116–109	W 136–130	✓correct	−1
Dec 8	at BOS	34%	111–117	L 123–133	✓correct	−4
Dec 5	at MIL	41%	114–116	L 122–146	✓correct	−22
Dec 1	at TOR	49%	114–112	W 119–106	✓correct	+11
Nov 30	vs DET	82%	121–105	W 118–112	✓correct	−10
Nov 28	vs CHA	82%	119–103	W 115–91	✓correct	+8
Nov 26	vs PHX	61%	109–106	L 113–116	✗missed	−6
Nov 24	vs MIA	75%	117–106	W 100–98	✓correct	−9
Nov 20	at MIN	37%	107–111	L 100–117	✓correct	−13
Nov 18	at CHA	59%	117–110	W 122–108	✓correct	+7
Nov 17	at WAS	51%	118–115	W 120–99	✓correct	+18
Nov 15	at ATL	39%	113–116	W 116–114	✗missed	+5
Nov 13	at BOS	47%	111–110	L 98–114	✗missed	−17
Nov 12	vs CHA	78%	117–104	W 129–107	✓correct	+9
Nov 8	vs SAS	75%	118–107	W 126–105	✓correct	+10
Nov 6	vs LAC	61%	112–109	W 111–97	✓correct	+11
Nov 3	at MIL	43%	114–115	L 105–110	✓correct	−4
Nov 1	vs CLE	63%	109–105	L 89–95	✗missed	−10
Oct 31	at CLE	35%	103–108	W 109–91	✗missed	+23
Oct 28	at NOP	37%	109–113	L 87–96	✓correct	−5
Oct 27	at ATL	47%	113–112	W 126–120	✓correct	+5
Oct 25	vs BOS	65%	111–106	L 104–108	✗missed	−9

2022-23

9.7 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 8.5 to 10.8; 9th smallest of 30

+1.1

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -0.8 to 3.2

12.0 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 10.3

62%

winner picked

93 games involving NYK

53 / 49.9

actual / expected wins

gap +3.1

0.238

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 93 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	NYK win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
May 12 PO	at MIA	24%	100–111	L 92–96	✓correct	+7
May 10 PO	vs MIA	72%	110–101	W 112–103	✓correct	±0
May 8 PO	at MIA	28%	103–112	L 101–109	✓correct	+1
May 6 PO	at MIA	26%	102–112	L 86–105	✓correct	−9
May 2 PO	vs MIA	72%	113–104	W 111–105	✓correct	−3
Apr 30 PO	vs MIA	70%	111–103	L 101–108	✗missed	−15
Apr 26 PO	at CLE	42%	104–107	W 106–95	✗missed	+14
Apr 23 PO	vs CLE	58%	108–105	W 102–93	✓correct	+6
Apr 21 PO	vs CLE	55%	110–108	W 99–79	✓correct	+18
Apr 18 PO	at CLE	28%	107–116	L 90–107	✓correct	−8
Apr 15 PO	at CLE	24%	107–118	W 101–97	✗missed	+15
Apr 9	vs IND	65%	121–115	L 136–141	✗missed	−11
Apr 7	at NOP	37%	114–119	L 105–113	✓correct	−3
Apr 5	at IND	55%	123–121	W 138–129	✓correct	+7
Apr 2	vs WAS	72%	118–109	W 118–109	✓correct	±0
Mar 31	at CLE	17%	102–117	W 130–116	✗missed	+29
Mar 29	vs MIA	74%	117–107	W 101–92	✓correct	−1
Mar 27	vs HOU	88%	122–103	W 137–115	✓correct	+3
Mar 23	at ORL	60%	120–116	L 106–111	✗missed	−9
Mar 22	at MIA	35%	112–118	L 120–127	✓correct	−1
Mar 20	vs MIN	65%	117–111	L 134–140	✗missed	−12
Mar 18	vs DEN	65%	116–110	W 116–110	✓correct	±0
Mar 14	at POR	58%	120–117	W 123–107	✓correct	+13
Mar 12	at LAL	47%	113–114	W 112–108	✗missed	+5
Mar 11	at LAC	42%	116–119	L 95–106	✓correct	−8
Mar 9	at SAC	55%	119–117	L 117–122	✗missed	−7
Mar 7	vs CHA	80%	118–105	L 105–112	✗missed	−20
Mar 5	at BOS	28%	109–118	W 131–129	✗missed	+11
Mar 3	at MIA	55%	112–110	W 122–120	✓correct	±0
Mar 1	vs BKN	72%	117–108	W 142–118	✓correct	+15
Feb 27	vs BOS	63%	109–104	W 109–94	✓correct	+10
Feb 25	vs NOP	65%	115–109	W 128–106	✓correct	+16
Feb 24	at WAS	40%	112–116	W 115–109	✗missed	+10
Feb 15	at ATL	45%	115–117	W 122–101	✗missed	+23
Feb 13	vs BKN	55%	115–113	W 124–106	✓correct	+16
Feb 11	vs UTA	68%	118–111	W 126–120	✓correct	−1
Feb 10	at PHI	26%	107–117	L 108–119	✓correct	−1
Feb 7	at ORL	53%	116–115	W 102–98	✓correct	+3
Feb 5	vs PHI	53%	114–113	W 108–97	✓correct	+10
Feb 4	vs LAC	58%	116–113	L 128–134	✗missed	−9
Feb 2	vs MIA	53%	111–110	W 106–104	✓correct	+1
Jan 31	vs LAL	68%	117–110	L 123–129	✗missed	−13
Jan 28	at BKN	40%	109–113	L 115–122	✓correct	−3
Jan 26	at BOS	26%	109–119	W 120–117	✗missed	+13
Jan 24	vs CLE	47%	110–111	W 105–103	✗missed	+3
Jan 22	at TOR	53%	113–112	L 116–125	✗missed	−10
Jan 20	at ATL	60%	115–111	L 124–139	✗missed	−19
Jan 18	vs WAS	60%	114–110	L 105–116	✗missed	−15
Jan 16	vs TOR	60%	113–109	L 121–123	✗missed	−6
Jan 15	at DET	74%	120–110	W 117–104	✓correct	+3
Jan 13	at WAS	58%	114–111	W 112–108	✓correct	+1
Jan 11	vs IND	65%	116–110	W 119–113	✓correct	±0
Jan 9	vs MIL	68%	115–108	L 107–111	✗missed	−11
Jan 6	at TOR	53%	111–110	W 112–108	✓correct	+3
Jan 4	vs SAS	84%	120–104	W 117–114	✓correct	−13
Jan 2	vs PHX	60%	110–106	W 102–83	✓correct	+15
Dec 31	at HOU	55%	112–110	W 108–88	✓correct	+18
Dec 29	at SAS	55%	114–112	L 115–122	✗missed	−9
Dec 27	at DAL	45%	108–110	L 121–126	✓correct	−3
Dec 25	vs PHI	63%	112–107	L 112–119	✗missed	−12
Dec 23	vs CHI	65%	113–107	L 117–118	✗missed	−7
Dec 21	vs TOR	65%	112–106	L 106–113	✗missed	−13
Dec 20	vs GSW	70%	116–108	W 132–94	✓correct	+30
Dec 18	at IND	70%	120–112	W 109–106	✓correct	−5
Dec 16	at CHI	60%	117–113	W 114–91	✓correct	+19
Dec 14	at CHI	53%	115–114	W 128–120	✓correct	+7
Dec 11	vs SAC	55%	113–111	W 112–99	✓correct	+11
Dec 9	at CHA	70%	117–109	W 121–102	✓correct	+11
Dec 7	vs ATL	55%	112–110	W 113–89	✓correct	+22
Dec 4	vs CLE	40%	106–110	W 92–81	✗missed	+15
Dec 3	vs DAL	47%	112–113	L 100–121	✓correct	−20
Nov 30	vs MIL	47%	114–115	L 103–109	✓correct	−5
Nov 29	at DET	63%	118–113	W 140–110	✓correct	+25
Nov 27	vs MEM	40%	111–115	L 123–127	✓correct	±0
Nov 25	vs POR	63%	115–110	L 129–132	✗missed	−8
Nov 21	at OKC	60%	117–113	W 129–119	✓correct	+6
Nov 20	at PHX	37%	109–114	L 95–116	✓correct	−16
Nov 18	at GSW	35%	111–117	L 101–111	✓correct	−4
Nov 16	at DEN	30%	110–118	W 106–103	✗missed	+11
Nov 15	at UTA	32%	110–117	W 118–111	✗missed	+14
Nov 13	vs OKC	63%	115–110	L 135–145	✗missed	−15
Nov 11	vs DET	78%	116–104	W 121–112	✓correct	−3
Nov 9	at BKN	55%	110–108	L 85–112	✗missed	−29
Nov 7	at MIN	45%	110–112	W 120–107	✗missed	+15
Nov 5	vs BOS	30%	105–113	L 118–133	✓correct	−7
Nov 4	at PHI	40%	106–110	W 106–104	✗missed	+6
Nov 2	vs ATL	53%	111–110	L 99–112	✗missed	−14
Oct 30	at CLE	35%	107–113	L 108–121	✓correct	−7
Oct 28	at MIL	47%	106–107	L 108–119	✓correct	−10
Oct 26	vs CHA	58%	115–112	W 134–131	✓correct	±0
Oct 24	vs ORL	70%	114–106	W 115–102	✓correct	+5
Oct 21	vs DET	70%	111–103	W 130–106	✓correct	+16
Oct 19	at MEM	42%	108–111	L 112–115	✓correct	±0

2022-23 to 2026-27

11.6 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.9 to 12.4; 27th smallest of 30

+1.3

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval 0.1 to 2.6

14.6 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

65%

winner picked

396 games involving NYK

243 / 226.6

actual / expected wins

gap +16.4

0.223

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 396 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	NYK win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 7	at CLE	65%	113–108	W 109–97	✓correct	+7
Nov 4	vs CHI	77%	118–108	W 135–105	✓correct	+20
Nov 2	vs BKN	80%	117–105	W 103–90	✓correct	+1
Oct 30	at PHI	70%	114–107	L 93–98	✗missed	−12
Oct 28	at CHI	80%	124–112	W 133–127	✓correct	−6
Oct 27	vs DET	53%	110–109	W 111–97	✓correct	+13
Oct 25	vs ORL	78%	114–103	L 102–111	✗missed	−20
Oct 23	at BOS	62%	112–108	L 103–107	✗missed	−8
Oct 20	vs PHI	75%	116–107	L 100–106	✗missed	−15
Jun 10 PO	vs SAS	83%	109–95	W 107–106	✓correct	−13
Jun 8 PO	vs SAS	70%	112–106	L 111–115	✗missed	−10
Jun 5 PO	at SAS	67%	108–105	W 105–104	✓correct	−2
Jun 3 PO	at SAS	22%	99–110	W 105–95	✗missed	+21
May 25 PO	at CLE	61%	100–96	W 130–93	✓correct	+33
May 23 PO	at CLE	53%	101–100	W 121–108	✓correct	+12
May 21 PO	vs CLE	69%	111–104	W 109–93	✓correct	+9
May 19 PO	vs CLE	67%	111–105	W 115–104	✓correct	+5
May 10 PO	at PHI	64%	105–100	W 144–114	✓correct	+25
May 8 PO	at PHI	74%	106–97	W 108–94	✓correct	+5
May 6 PO	vs PHI	82%	114–101	W 108–102	✓correct	−7
May 4 PO	vs PHI	56%	105–103	W 137–98	✓correct	+37
Apr 30 PO	at ATL	55%	110–108	W 140–89	✓correct	+49
Apr 28 PO	vs ATL	53%	107–106	W 126–97	✓correct	+28
Apr 25 PO	at ATL	58%	109–106	W 114–98	✓correct	+13
Apr 23 PO	at ATL	56%	107–105	L 108–109	✗missed	−3
Apr 20 PO	vs ATL	67%	109–103	L 106–107	✗missed	−7
Apr 18 PO	vs ATL	61%	109–105	W 113–102	✓correct	+7
Apr 12	vs CHA	39%	109–113	L 96–110	✓correct	−10
Apr 10	vs TOR	56%	115–113	W 112–95	✓correct	+15
Apr 9	vs BOS	53%	110–109	W 112–106	✓correct	+5
Apr 6	at ATL	58%	115–112	W 108–105	✓correct	±0
Apr 3	vs CHI	80%	125–113	W 136–96	✓correct	+28
Apr 1	at MEM	80%	119–107	W 130–119	✓correct	−1
Mar 31	at HOU	58%	113–110	L 94–111	✗missed	−20
Mar 29	at OKC	47%	111–112	L 100–111	✓correct	−10
Mar 26	at CHA	61%	114–110	L 103–114	✗missed	−15
Mar 24	vs NOP	67%	118–112	W 121–116	✓correct	−1
Mar 22	vs WAS	90%	124–105	W 145–113	✓correct	+13
Mar 20	at BKN	85%	119–104	W 93–92	✓correct	−14
Mar 17	vs IND	85%	119–104	W 136–110	✓correct	+11
Mar 15	vs GSW	82%	120–107	W 110–107	✓correct	−10
Mar 13	at IND	86%	125–109	W 101–92	✓correct	−7
Mar 11	at UTA	69%	118–111	W 134–117	✓correct	+10
Mar 9	at LAC	53%	111–110	L 118–126	✗missed	−9
Mar 8	at LAL	64%	112–107	L 97–110	✗missed	−18
Mar 6	at DEN	44%	115–117	W 142–103	✗missed	+41
Mar 4	vs OKC	53%	113–112	L 100–103	✗missed	−4
Mar 3	at TOR	53%	113–112	W 111–95	✓correct	+15
Mar 1	vs SAS	44%	115–117	W 114–89	✗missed	+27
Feb 27	at MIL	61%	113–109	W 127–98	✓correct	+25
Feb 24	at CLE	44%	112–114	L 94–109	✓correct	−13
Feb 22	at CHI	80%	123–111	W 105–99	✓correct	−6
Feb 21	vs HOU	56%	108–106	W 108–106	✓correct	±0
Feb 19	vs DET	47%	111–112	L 111–126	✓correct	−14
Feb 11	at PHI	53%	112–111	W 138–89	✓correct	+48
Feb 10	vs IND	80%	118–106	L 134–137	✗missed	−15
Feb 8	at BOS	34%	102–108	W 111–89	✗missed	+28
Feb 6	at DET	39%	109–113	L 80–118	✓correct	−34
Feb 4	vs DEN	64%	111–106	W 134–127	✓correct	+2
Feb 3	at WAS	69%	115–108	W 132–101	✓correct	+24
Feb 1	vs LAL	64%	115–110	W 112–100	✓correct	+7
Jan 30	vs POR	61%	113–109	W 127–97	✓correct	+26
Jan 28	at TOR	44%	108–110	W 119–92	✗missed	+29
Jan 27	vs SAC	74%	116–107	W 103–87	✓correct	+7
Jan 24	at PHI	44%	110–112	W 112–109	✗missed	+5
Jan 21	vs BKN	61%	114–110	W 120–66	✓correct	+50
Jan 19	vs DAL	67%	119–113	L 97–114	✗missed	−23
Jan 17	vs PHX	47%	113–114	L 99–106	✓correct	−6
Jan 15	at GSW	36%	112–117	L 113–126	✓correct	−8
Jan 14	at SAC	69%	117–110	L 101–112	✗missed	−18
Jan 11	at POR	47%	114–115	W 123–114	✗missed	+10
Jan 9	at PHX	36%	114–119	L 107–112	✓correct	±0
Jan 7	vs LAC	53%	116–115	W 123–111	✓correct	+11
Jan 5	at DET	36%	114–119	L 90–121	✓correct	−26
Jan 3	vs PHI	59%	121–118	L 119–130	✗missed	−14
Jan 2	vs ATL	71%	128–120	L 99–111	✗missed	−20
Dec 31	at SAS	41%	116–119	L 132–134	✓correct	+1
Dec 29	at NOP	78%	126–115	W 130–125	✓correct	−6
Dec 27	at ATL	61%	121–117	W 128–125	✓correct	−1
Dec 25	vs CLE	59%	121–118	W 126–124	✓correct	−1
Dec 23	at MIN	34%	111–117	L 104–115	✓correct	−5
Dec 21	vs MIA	78%	120–109	W 132–125	✓correct	−4
Dec 19	vs PHI	80%	118–106	L 107–116	✗missed	−21
Dec 18	at IND	64%	112–107	W 114–113	✓correct	−4
Dec 9	at TOR	66%	113–107	W 117–101	✓correct	+10
Dec 7	vs ORL	56%	118–116	W 106–100	✓correct	+4
Dec 5	vs UTA	82%	126–113	W 146–112	✓correct	+21
Dec 3	vs CHA	80%	119–107	W 119–104	✓correct	+3
Dec 2	at BOS	47%	115–116	L 117–123	✓correct	−5
Nov 30	vs TOR	67%	120–114	W 116–94	✓correct	+16
Nov 28	vs MIL	69%	121–114	W 118–109	✓correct	+2
Nov 26	at CHA	66%	119–113	W 129–101	✓correct	+22
Nov 24	at BKN	64%	118–113	W 113–100	✓correct	+8
Nov 22	at ORL	47%	117–118	L 121–133	✓correct	−11
Nov 19	at DAL	56%	117–115	W 113–111	✓correct	±0
Nov 17	at MIA	47%	121–122	L 113–115	✓correct	−1
Nov 14	vs MIA	61%	122–118	W 140–132	✓correct	+4
Nov 12	vs ORL	69%	121–114	L 107–124	✗missed	−24
Nov 11	vs MEM	69%	122–115	W 133–120	✓correct	+6
Nov 9	vs BKN	82%	120–107	W 134–98	✓correct	+23
Nov 5	vs MIN	53%	119–118	W 137–114	✓correct	+22
Nov 3	vs WAS	83%	122–108	W 119–102	✓correct	+3
Nov 2	vs CHI	47%	118–119	W 128–116	✗missed	+13
Oct 31	at CHI	36%	113–118	L 125–135	✓correct	−5
Oct 28	at MIL	53%	116–115	L 111–121	✗missed	−11
Oct 26	at MIA	56%	115–113	L 107–115	✗missed	−10
Oct 24	vs BOS	44%	109–111	W 105–95	✗missed	+12
Oct 22	vs CLE	34%	110–116	W 119–111	✗missed	+14
May 31 PO	at IND	36%	106–111	L 108–125	✓correct	−12
May 29 PO	vs IND	54%	109–108	W 111–94	✓correct	+16
May 27 PO	at IND	46%	108–109	L 121–130	✓correct	−8
May 25 PO	at IND	38%	108–112	W 106–100	✗missed	+10
May 23 PO	vs IND	57%	107–105	L 109–114	✗missed	−7
May 21 PO	vs IND	62%	107–103	L 135–138	✗missed	−7
May 16 PO	vs BOS	64%	101–96	W 119–81	✓correct	+33
May 14 PO	at BOS	19%	97–110	L 102–127	✓correct	−12
May 12 PO	vs BOS	49%	100–101	W 121–113	✗missed	+9
May 10 PO	vs BOS	59%	102–99	L 93–115	✗missed	−25
May 7 PO	at BOS	31%	100–107	W 91–90	✗missed	+8
May 5 PO	at BOS	23%	100–111	W 108–105	✗missed	+14
May 1 PO	at DET	38%	103–107	W 116–113	✗missed	+7
Apr 29 PO	vs DET	67%	109–103	L 103–106	✗missed	−9
Apr 27 PO	at DET	36%	105–110	W 94–93	✗missed	+6
Apr 24 PO	at DET	38%	103–107	W 118–116	✗missed	+6
Apr 21 PO	vs DET	71%	111–103	L 94–100	✗missed	−14
Apr 19 PO	vs DET	75%	109–99	W 123–112	✓correct	+1
Apr 13	at BKN	61%	113–108	W 113–105	✓correct	+3
Apr 11	vs CLE	57%	111–109	L 102–108	✗missed	−8
Apr 10	at DET	43%	111–113	L 106–115	✓correct	−7
Apr 8	vs BOS	34%	105–112	L 117–119	✓correct	+5
Apr 6	vs PHX	73%	116–107	W 112–98	✓correct	+5
Apr 5	at ATL	51%	117–116	W 121–105	✓correct	+15
Apr 2	at CLE	38%	112–116	L 105–124	✓correct	−15
Apr 1	vs PHI	81%	116–103	W 105–91	✓correct	+1
Mar 30	vs POR	62%	113–109	W 110–93	✓correct	+13
Mar 28	at MIL	43%	107–109	W 116–107	✗missed	+11
Mar 26	vs LAC	49%	108–109	L 113–126	✓correct	−12
Mar 25	vs DAL	62%	115–111	W 128–113	✓correct	+11
Mar 22	vs WAS	73%	113–104	W 122–103	✓correct	+10
Mar 20	at CHA	56%	111–108	L 98–115	✗missed	−20
Mar 19	at SAS	59%	117–113	L 105–120	✗missed	−19
Mar 17	vs MIA	67%	111–105	W 116–95	✓correct	+15
Mar 15	at GSW	36%	109–114	L 94–97	✓correct	+2
Mar 12	at POR	36%	111–116	W 114–113	✗missed	+6
Mar 10	at SAC	33%	107–113	W 133–104	✗missed	+35
Mar 7	at LAC	41%	111–114	L 95–105	✓correct	−7
Mar 6	at LAL	43%	111–113	L 109–113	✓correct	−2
Mar 4	vs GSW	59%	118–115	L 102–114	✗missed	−15
Mar 2	at MIA	59%	112–108	W 116–112	✓correct	±0
Feb 28	at MEM	29%	114–122	W 114–113	✗missed	+9
Feb 26	vs PHI	75%	121–111	W 110–105	✓correct	−5
Feb 23	at BOS	38%	111–115	L 105–118	✓correct	−9
Feb 21	at CLE	18%	114–128	L 105–142	✓correct	−23
Feb 20	vs CHI	81%	124–111	W 113–111	✓correct	−11
Feb 12	vs ATL	71%	121–113	W 149–148	✓correct	−7
Feb 11	at IND	41%	115–118	W 128–115	✗missed	+16
Feb 8	vs BOS	44%	110–113	L 104–131	✓correct	−24
Feb 4	at TOR	56%	113–110	W 121–115	✓correct	+3
Feb 3	vs HOU	57%	113–111	W 124–118	✓correct	+4
Feb 1	vs LAL	71%	115–107	L 112–128	✗missed	−24
Jan 29	vs DEN	59%	115–112	W 122–112	✓correct	+7
Jan 27	vs MEM	59%	117–114	W 143–106	✓correct	+34
Jan 25	vs SAC	59%	118–115	W 143–120	✓correct	+20
Jan 21	at BKN	69%	115–107	W 99–95	✓correct	−4
Jan 20	vs ATL	69%	120–113	W 119–110	✓correct	+2
Jan 17	vs MIN	71%	115–107	L 99–116	✗missed	−25
Jan 15	at PHI	54%	112–110	W 125–119	✓correct	+4
Jan 13	vs DET	71%	117–109	L 119–124	✗missed	−13
Jan 12	vs MIL	73%	118–109	W 140–106	✓correct	+25
Jan 10	vs OKC	54%	113–112	L 101–126	✗missed	−26
Jan 8	vs TOR	89%	124–105	W 112–98	✓correct	−5
Jan 6	vs ORL	73%	114–105	L 94–103	✗missed	−18
Jan 4	at CHI	66%	118–111	L 126–139	✗missed	−20
Jan 3	at OKC	29%	109–117	L 107–117	✓correct	−2
Jan 1	vs UTA	85%	123–107	W 119–103	✓correct	±0
Dec 30	at WAS	71%	121–112	W 126–106	✓correct	+11
Dec 28	at WAS	69%	121–113	W 136–132	✓correct	−4
Dec 27	at ORL	61%	110–105	W 108–85	✓correct	+18
Dec 25	vs SAS	79%	122–110	W 117–114	✓correct	−9
Dec 23	vs TOR	81%	120–107	W 139–125	✓correct	+1
Dec 21	at NOP	73%	118–108	W 104–93	✓correct	+1
Dec 19	at MIN	51%	108–107	W 133–107	✓correct	+25
Dec 15	at ORL	46%	108–109	W 100–91	✗missed	+10
Dec 11	vs ATL	73%	122–113	L 100–108	✗missed	−17
Dec 9	at TOR	59%	118–114	W 113–108	✓correct	+1
Dec 7	vs DET	81%	119–106	L 111–120	✗missed	−22
Dec 5	vs CHA	84%	120–105	W 125–101	✓correct	+9
Dec 3	vs ORL	57%	111–109	W 121–106	✓correct	+13
Dec 1	vs NOP	82%	119–105	W 118–85	✓correct	+19
Nov 29	at CHA	73%	116–106	W 99–98	✓correct	−9
Nov 27	at DAL	41%	115–118	L 114–129	✓correct	−12
Nov 25	at DEN	36%	114–119	W 145–118	✗missed	+32
Nov 23	at UTA	71%	120–111	L 106–121	✗missed	−24
Nov 20	at PHX	61%	113–108	W 138–122	✓correct	+11
Nov 18	vs WAS	86%	124–107	W 134–106	✓correct	+11
Nov 17	vs BKN	73%	117–108	W 114–104	✓correct	+1
Nov 15	vs BKN	71%	115–107	W 124–122	✓correct	−6
Nov 13	vs CHI	75%	122–112	L 123–124	✗missed	−11
Nov 12	at PHI	61%	114–109	W 111–99	✓correct	+7
Nov 10	at IND	54%	112–110	L 121–132	✗missed	−13
Nov 8	vs MIL	64%	115–110	W 116–94	✓correct	+17
Nov 6	at ATL	59%	116–112	L 116–121	✗missed	−9
Nov 4	at HOU	43%	109–111	L 97–109	✓correct	−10
Nov 1	at DET	66%	115–108	W 128–98	✓correct	+23
Oct 30	at MIA	43%	108–110	W 116–107	✗missed	+11
Oct 28	vs CLE	54%	111–110	L 104–110	✗missed	−7
Oct 25	vs IND	62%	113–109	W 123–98	✓correct	+21
Oct 22	at BOS	19%	106–119	L 109–132	✓correct	−10
May 19 PO	vs IND	57%	111–110	L 109–130	✗missed	−22
May 17 PO	at IND	39%	108–111	L 103–116	✓correct	−10
May 14 PO	vs IND	59%	109–107	W 121–91	✓correct	+28
May 12 PO	at IND	41%	109–111	L 89–121	✓correct	−30
May 10 PO	at IND	43%	109–110	L 106–111	✓correct	−4
May 8 PO	vs IND	59%	109–107	W 130–121	✓correct	+7
May 6 PO	vs IND	63%	110–106	W 121–117	✓correct	±0
May 2 PO	at PHI	41%	104–106	W 118–115	✗missed	+5
Apr 30 PO	vs PHI	65%	107–102	L 106–112	✗missed	−11
Apr 28 PO	at PHI	49%	105–103	W 97–92	✓correct	+3
Apr 25 PO	at PHI	49%	106–104	L 114–125	✗missed	−13
Apr 22 PO	vs PHI	68%	108–101	W 104–101	✓correct	−4
Apr 20 PO	vs PHI	73%	114–104	W 111–104	✓correct	−3
Apr 14	vs CHI	61%	107–104	W 120–119	✓correct	−2
Apr 12	vs BKN	67%	109–103	W 111–107	✓correct	−2
Apr 11	at BOS	51%	109–106	W 118–109	✓correct	+6
Apr 9	at CHI	63%	114–105	W 128–117	✓correct	+2
Apr 7	at MIL	47%	111–110	W 122–109	✓correct	+12
Apr 5	at CHI	43%	114–115	L 100–108	✓correct	−7
Apr 4	vs SAC	67%	110–104	W 120–109	✓correct	+5
Apr 2	at MIA	47%	108–107	L 99–109	✗missed	−11
Mar 31	vs OKC	61%	110–107	L 112–113	✗missed	−4
Mar 29	at SAS	59%	109–102	L 126–130	✗missed	−11
Mar 27	at TOR	74%	115–100	W 145–101	✓correct	+29
Mar 25	vs DET	83%	113–96	W 124–99	✓correct	+8
Mar 23	vs BKN	61%	107–104	W 105–93	✓correct	+9
Mar 21	at DEN	47%	105–104	L 100–113	✗missed	−14
Mar 18	at GSW	47%	105–104	W 119–112	✓correct	+6
Mar 16	at SAC	41%	108–110	W 98–91	✗missed	+9
Mar 14	at POR	51%	108–105	W 105–93	✓correct	+9
Mar 12	vs PHI	57%	107–106	W 106–79	✓correct	+26
Mar 10	vs PHI	63%	108–104	L 73–79	✗missed	−10
Mar 8	vs ORL	59%	111–109	W 98–74	✓correct	+22
Mar 5	vs ATL	70%	114–106	L 100–116	✗missed	−24
Mar 3	at CLE	43%	110–111	W 107–98	✗missed	+10
Feb 29	vs GSW	61%	115–112	L 99–110	✗missed	−14
Feb 27	vs NOP	61%	112–109	L 92–115	✗missed	−26
Feb 26	vs DET	85%	121–102	W 113–111	✓correct	−17
Feb 24	vs BOS	51%	110–112	L 102–116	✓correct	−12
Feb 22	at PHI	43%	114–115	W 110–96	✗missed	+15
Feb 14	at ORL	47%	106–105	L 100–118	✗missed	−19
Feb 12	at HOU	47%	109–108	L 103–105	✗missed	−3
Feb 10	vs IND	59%	113–111	L 111–125	✗missed	−16
Feb 8	vs DAL	61%	114–111	L 108–122	✗missed	−17
Feb 6	vs MEM	72%	113–104	W 123–113	✓correct	+1
Feb 3	vs LAL	63%	117–113	L 105–113	✗missed	−12
Feb 1	vs IND	63%	114–110	W 109–105	✓correct	±0
Jan 30	vs UTA	59%	115–113	W 118–103	✓correct	+13
Jan 29	at CHA	55%	112–107	W 113–92	✓correct	+16
Jan 27	vs MIA	57%	108–107	W 125–109	✓correct	+15
Jan 25	vs DEN	59%	110–108	W 122–84	✓correct	+36
Jan 23	at BKN	63%	113–104	W 108–103	✓correct	−4
Jan 20	vs TOR	68%	117–110	W 126–100	✓correct	+19
Jan 18	vs WAS	79%	122–108	W 113–109	✓correct	−10
Jan 17	vs HOU	68%	118–111	W 109–94	✓correct	+8
Jan 15	vs ORL	67%	115–109	L 94–98	✗missed	−10
Jan 13	at MEM	67%	121–110	W 106–94	✓correct	+1
Jan 11	at DAL	49%	119–117	L 124–128	✗missed	−6
Jan 9	vs POR	84%	126–108	W 112–84	✓correct	+10
Jan 6	at WAS	61%	125–117	W 121–105	✓correct	+8
Jan 5	at PHI	35%	112–117	W 128–92	✗missed	+41
Jan 3	vs CHI	61%	118–115	W 116–100	✓correct	+13
Jan 1	vs MIN	59%	118–116	W 112–106	✓correct	+4
Dec 30	at IND	41%	119–121	L 126–140	✓correct	−12
Dec 29	at ORL	47%	113–112	L 108–117	✗missed	−10
Dec 27	at OKC	37%	113–117	L 120–129	✓correct	−5
Dec 25	vs MIL	47%	118–122	W 129–122	✗missed	+11
Dec 23	vs MIL	59%	119–117	L 111–130	✗missed	−21
Dec 20	at BKN	43%	115–116	W 121–102	✗missed	+20
Dec 18	at LAL	47%	115–114	W 114–109	✓correct	+4
Dec 16	at LAC	41%	111–113	L 122–144	✓correct	−20
Dec 15	at PHX	49%	115–113	W 139–122	✓correct	+15
Dec 13	at UTA	57%	115–109	L 113–117	✗missed	−10
Dec 11	vs TOR	68%	116–109	W 136–130	✓correct	−1
Dec 8	at BOS	34%	111–117	L 123–133	✓correct	−4
Dec 5	at MIL	41%	114–116	L 122–146	✓correct	−22
Dec 1	at TOR	49%	114–112	W 119–106	✓correct	+11
Nov 30	vs DET	82%	121–105	W 118–112	✓correct	−10
Nov 28	vs CHA	82%	119–103	W 115–91	✓correct	+8
Nov 26	vs PHX	61%	109–106	L 113–116	✗missed	−6
Nov 24	vs MIA	75%	117–106	W 100–98	✓correct	−9
Nov 20	at MIN	37%	107–111	L 100–117	✓correct	−13
Nov 18	at CHA	59%	117–110	W 122–108	✓correct	+7
Nov 17	at WAS	51%	118–115	W 120–99	✓correct	+18
Nov 15	at ATL	39%	113–116	W 116–114	✗missed	+5
Nov 13	at BOS	47%	111–110	L 98–114	✗missed	−17
Nov 12	vs CHA	78%	117–104	W 129–107	✓correct	+9
Nov 8	vs SAS	75%	118–107	W 126–105	✓correct	+10
Nov 6	vs LAC	61%	112–109	W 111–97	✓correct	+11
Nov 3	at MIL	43%	114–115	L 105–110	✓correct	−4
Nov 1	vs CLE	63%	109–105	L 89–95	✗missed	−10
Oct 31	at CLE	35%	103–108	W 109–91	✗missed	+23
Oct 28	at NOP	37%	109–113	L 87–96	✓correct	−5
Oct 27	at ATL	47%	113–112	W 126–120	✓correct	+5
Oct 25	vs BOS	65%	111–106	L 104–108	✗missed	−9
May 12 PO	at MIA	24%	100–111	L 92–96	✓correct	+7
May 10 PO	vs MIA	72%	110–101	W 112–103	✓correct	±0
May 8 PO	at MIA	28%	103–112	L 101–109	✓correct	+1
May 6 PO	at MIA	26%	102–112	L 86–105	✓correct	−9
May 2 PO	vs MIA	72%	113–104	W 111–105	✓correct	−3
Apr 30 PO	vs MIA	70%	111–103	L 101–108	✗missed	−15
Apr 26 PO	at CLE	42%	104–107	W 106–95	✗missed	+14
Apr 23 PO	vs CLE	58%	108–105	W 102–93	✓correct	+6
Apr 21 PO	vs CLE	55%	110–108	W 99–79	✓correct	+18
Apr 18 PO	at CLE	28%	107–116	L 90–107	✓correct	−8
Apr 15 PO	at CLE	24%	107–118	W 101–97	✗missed	+15
Apr 9	vs IND	65%	121–115	L 136–141	✗missed	−11
Apr 7	at NOP	37%	114–119	L 105–113	✓correct	−3
Apr 5	at IND	55%	123–121	W 138–129	✓correct	+7
Apr 2	vs WAS	72%	118–109	W 118–109	✓correct	±0
Mar 31	at CLE	17%	102–117	W 130–116	✗missed	+29
Mar 29	vs MIA	74%	117–107	W 101–92	✓correct	−1
Mar 27	vs HOU	88%	122–103	W 137–115	✓correct	+3
Mar 23	at ORL	60%	120–116	L 106–111	✗missed	−9
Mar 22	at MIA	35%	112–118	L 120–127	✓correct	−1
Mar 20	vs MIN	65%	117–111	L 134–140	✗missed	−12
Mar 18	vs DEN	65%	116–110	W 116–110	✓correct	±0
Mar 14	at POR	58%	120–117	W 123–107	✓correct	+13
Mar 12	at LAL	47%	113–114	W 112–108	✗missed	+5
Mar 11	at LAC	42%	116–119	L 95–106	✓correct	−8
Mar 9	at SAC	55%	119–117	L 117–122	✗missed	−7
Mar 7	vs CHA	80%	118–105	L 105–112	✗missed	−20
Mar 5	at BOS	28%	109–118	W 131–129	✗missed	+11
Mar 3	at MIA	55%	112–110	W 122–120	✓correct	±0
Mar 1	vs BKN	72%	117–108	W 142–118	✓correct	+15
Feb 27	vs BOS	63%	109–104	W 109–94	✓correct	+10
Feb 25	vs NOP	65%	115–109	W 128–106	✓correct	+16
Feb 24	at WAS	40%	112–116	W 115–109	✗missed	+10
Feb 15	at ATL	45%	115–117	W 122–101	✗missed	+23
Feb 13	vs BKN	55%	115–113	W 124–106	✓correct	+16
Feb 11	vs UTA	68%	118–111	W 126–120	✓correct	−1
Feb 10	at PHI	26%	107–117	L 108–119	✓correct	−1
Feb 7	at ORL	53%	116–115	W 102–98	✓correct	+3
Feb 5	vs PHI	53%	114–113	W 108–97	✓correct	+10
Feb 4	vs LAC	58%	116–113	L 128–134	✗missed	−9
Feb 2	vs MIA	53%	111–110	W 106–104	✓correct	+1
Jan 31	vs LAL	68%	117–110	L 123–129	✗missed	−13
Jan 28	at BKN	40%	109–113	L 115–122	✓correct	−3
Jan 26	at BOS	26%	109–119	W 120–117	✗missed	+13
Jan 24	vs CLE	47%	110–111	W 105–103	✗missed	+3
Jan 22	at TOR	53%	113–112	L 116–125	✗missed	−10
Jan 20	at ATL	60%	115–111	L 124–139	✗missed	−19
Jan 18	vs WAS	60%	114–110	L 105–116	✗missed	−15
Jan 16	vs TOR	60%	113–109	L 121–123	✗missed	−6
Jan 15	at DET	74%	120–110	W 117–104	✓correct	+3
Jan 13	at WAS	58%	114–111	W 112–108	✓correct	+1
Jan 11	vs IND	65%	116–110	W 119–113	✓correct	±0
Jan 9	vs MIL	68%	115–108	L 107–111	✗missed	−11
Jan 6	at TOR	53%	111–110	W 112–108	✓correct	+3
Jan 4	vs SAS	84%	120–104	W 117–114	✓correct	−13
Jan 2	vs PHX	60%	110–106	W 102–83	✓correct	+15
Dec 31	at HOU	55%	112–110	W 108–88	✓correct	+18
Dec 29	at SAS	55%	114–112	L 115–122	✗missed	−9
Dec 27	at DAL	45%	108–110	L 121–126	✓correct	−3
Dec 25	vs PHI	63%	112–107	L 112–119	✗missed	−12
Dec 23	vs CHI	65%	113–107	L 117–118	✗missed	−7
Dec 21	vs TOR	65%	112–106	L 106–113	✗missed	−13
Dec 20	vs GSW	70%	116–108	W 132–94	✓correct	+30
Dec 18	at IND	70%	120–112	W 109–106	✓correct	−5
Dec 16	at CHI	60%	117–113	W 114–91	✓correct	+19
Dec 14	at CHI	53%	115–114	W 128–120	✓correct	+7
Dec 11	vs SAC	55%	113–111	W 112–99	✓correct	+11
Dec 9	at CHA	70%	117–109	W 121–102	✓correct	+11
Dec 7	vs ATL	55%	112–110	W 113–89	✓correct	+22
Dec 4	vs CLE	40%	106–110	W 92–81	✗missed	+15
Dec 3	vs DAL	47%	112–113	L 100–121	✓correct	−20
Nov 30	vs MIL	47%	114–115	L 103–109	✓correct	−5
Nov 29	at DET	63%	118–113	W 140–110	✓correct	+25
Nov 27	vs MEM	40%	111–115	L 123–127	✓correct	±0
Nov 25	vs POR	63%	115–110	L 129–132	✗missed	−8
Nov 21	at OKC	60%	117–113	W 129–119	✓correct	+6
Nov 20	at PHX	37%	109–114	L 95–116	✓correct	−16
Nov 18	at GSW	35%	111–117	L 101–111	✓correct	−4
Nov 16	at DEN	30%	110–118	W 106–103	✗missed	+11
Nov 15	at UTA	32%	110–117	W 118–111	✗missed	+14
Nov 13	vs OKC	63%	115–110	L 135–145	✗missed	−15
Nov 11	vs DET	78%	116–104	W 121–112	✓correct	−3
Nov 9	at BKN	55%	110–108	L 85–112	✗missed	−29
Nov 7	at MIN	45%	110–112	W 120–107	✗missed	+15
Nov 5	vs BOS	30%	105–113	L 118–133	✓correct	−7
Nov 4	at PHI	40%	106–110	W 106–104	✗missed	+6
Nov 2	vs ATL	53%	111–110	L 99–112	✗missed	−14
Oct 30	at CLE	35%	107–113	L 108–121	✓correct	−7
Oct 28	at MIL	47%	106–107	L 108–119	✓correct	−10
Oct 26	vs CHA	58%	115–112	W 134–131	✓correct	±0
Oct 24	vs ORL	70%	114–106	W 115–102	✓correct	+5
Oct 21	vs DET	70%	111–103	W 130–106	✓correct	+16
Oct 19	at MEM	42%	108–111	L 112–115	✓correct	±0

Surprise games

All NYK surprises

Across every graded season. The percentage is the pregame chance the forecast gave the team that won.

Most unexpected NYK wins

17%NYK beat CLE130–116Mar 31, 2022-23 · forecast CLE117–102 · missed margin by 29
22%NYK beat SAS105–95Jun 3, 2025-26 · playoffs · forecast SAS110–99 · missed margin by 21
23%NYK beat BOS108–105May 5, 2024-25 · playoffs · forecast BOS111–100 · missed margin by 14
24%NYK beat CLE101–97Apr 15, 2022-23 · playoffs · forecast CLE118–107 · missed margin by 15
26%NYK beat BOS120–117Jan 26, 2022-23 · forecast BOS119–109 · missed margin by 13

Most unexpected NYK losses

19%DET beat NYK120–111Dec 7, 2024-25 · forecast NYK119–106 · missed margin by 22
20%IND beat NYK137–134Feb 10, 2025-26 · forecast NYK118–106 · missed margin by 15
20%PHI beat NYK116–107Dec 19, 2025-26 · forecast NYK118–106 · missed margin by 21
20%CHA beat NYK112–105Mar 7, 2022-23 · forecast NYK118–105 · missed margin by 20
22%ORL beat NYK111–102Oct 25, 2026-27 · forecast NYK114–103 · missed margin by 20

Largest margin misses

61%NYK beat BKN120–66Jan 21, 2025-26 · forecast NYK114–110 · missed margin by 50
55%NYK beat ATL140–89Apr 30, 2025-26 · playoffs · forecast NYK110–108 · missed margin by 49
53%NYK beat PHI138–89Feb 11, 2025-26 · forecast NYK112–111 · missed margin by 48
44%NYK beat DEN142–103Mar 6, 2025-26 · forecast DEN117–115 · missed margin by 41
35%NYK beat PHI128–92Jan 5, 2023-24 · forecast PHI117–112 · missed margin by 41

Definitions

Expected wins: The sum of the team's pregame win probabilities over the games in the sample (home: the stored home win probability; road: one minus it).
Wins vs expectation: Actual wins minus expected wins. It describes results relative to the forecasts, not why they differed.
Margin error: The team's actual margin minus its forecast margin, in points. Positive means the team did better than forecast.
Error variability: The sample standard deviation of margin errors. Higher means the forecasts for this team's games were less consistent.
Winner picked: The share of the team's games in which the forecast winner won, whichever team that was. Teams play different mixes of close and lopsided games, so this alone is not a fair measure of how hard a team is to forecast.
Average margin miss: The mean absolute margin error. This is the headline measure of how hard a team's games were for this model to forecast.
Average margin error: The mean signed margin error. Consistently positive means the model underrated the team in this sample; negative, overrated.
Brier score: The mean squared difference between the team's pregame win probability and the result (1 for a win, 0 for a loss). It rewards confident correct forecasts and penalises confident wrong ones.
Intervals and samples: Ranges are 90% bootstrap intervals (1,000 resamples of the team's games). Under 20 games no ranking is shown; 20 to 59 games is exploratory; 60 or more is roughly a full season.

More on how forecasts are made and tested: Methodology.

Upcoming

Recent results

Predictability

2026-27 (in progress)

2025-26

2024-25

2023-24

2022-23

2022-23 to 2026-27

Surprise games

Most unexpected NYK wins

Most unexpected NYK losses

Largest margin misses

Recent results the forecast got wrong

Definitions