2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

San Antonio Spurs at Indiana Pacers

Monday, November 6, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

SAS 1–1@IND 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
SAS San Antonio Spurs	115	111	−4
IND Indiana Pacers (home)	120	152	+32

Forecast: Indiana Pacers to win, 65% win probability, projected margin 5.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	SAS	IND
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1380	1438
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+128
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−8.9	−3.2
Games played this season	6	6
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	111.9	116.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	117.7	120.1
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	103.8
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	19.4	0.0
Rest days	1	2
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAS1380IND1438

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAS1380

Ended last season at 1326 → started this one at 1369
This season's 6 games: +10.7

LDAL119–126−8.0
WHOU126–122+4.8
L@LAC83–123−10.2
W@PHX115–114+8.4
W@PHX132–121+22.1
LTOR116–123−6.4

IND1438

Ended last season at 1394 → started this one at 1421
This season's 6 games: +17.6

WWAS143–120+15.6
W@CLE125–113+20.0
LCHI105–112−9.5
L@BOS104–155−9.8
WCLE121–116+7.4
LCHA124–125−6.1

Season scoring marginSAS−8.9IND−3.2

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAS−8.9

Scores 115.2, allows 121.5 over 6 games: −6.3 a game.

30% this season (−6.3) + 70% last season (−10.0) = −8.9

IND−3.2

Scores 120.3, allows 123.5 over 6 games: −3.2 a game.

30% this season (−3.2) + 70% last season (−3.2) = −3.2

Offensive rating, last 10SAS111.9IND116.4

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23: 114.0).

SAS111.9scored, −2.2 vs league

Factor	SAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.0%	54.6%	−0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.7%	11.9%	−1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.8%	23.8%	−0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.169	0.210	−1.2
Everything else			+1.4

IND116.4scored, +2.3 vs league

Factor	IND	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.3%	54.6%	+2.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.3%	11.9%	−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.6%	23.8%	−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.204	0.210	−0.2
Everything else			+1.1

Defensive rating, last 10SAS117.7IND120.1

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23: 114.0).

SAS117.7allowed, +3.6 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.2%	54.6%	−5.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.2%	11.9%	−1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.4%	23.8%	+0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.155	0.210	+1.6
Everything else			+0.7

IND120.1allowed, +6.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.8%	54.6%	−1.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.4%	11.9%	−2.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.2%	23.8%	−2.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.222	0.210	−0.3
Everything else			+0.3

Pace, last 10average 103.8

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAS 103.4 and IND 104.2 → average 103.8 (league 2022-23: 99.6)

Rotation points missingSAS19.4IND0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAS19.4pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Devin Vassell	19.4	31.1	5

Source: official injury report, 2023-11-06 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

IND0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-11-06 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestSAS1 daysIND2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAS1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 5 against TOR.

IND2days

Last played Nov 4 against CHA.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 5	TOR	116–123	48-96	10-32	10-13	17	9	106.4	113.9	98.3
Nov 2	@PHX	132–121	51-98	18-37	12-13	8	9	130.7	122.2	100.0
Oct 31	@PHX	115–114	43-92	14-37	15-20	12	8	113.9	114.0	100.5
Oct 29	@LAC	83–123	30-80	11-33	12-16	25	6	79.8	119.4	103.5
Oct 27	HOU	126–122	46-94	13-42	21-28	18	12	113.5	109.9	100.5
Oct 25	DAL	119–126	46-89	11-35	16-22	19	9	111.2	117.8	107.0
Apr 9	@DAL	138–117	51-104	15-38	21-30	12	13	123.2	103.5	112.5
Apr 8	MIN	131–151	50-95	13-29	18-24	13	10	123.6	141.1	106.5
Apr 6	POR	129–127	47-106	10-35	25-28	14	18	119.4	117.6	108.0
Apr 4	@PHX	94–115	35-90	13-40	11-14	12	9	96.9	117.3	97.5

IND

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 4	CHA	124–125	45-93	22-45	12-16	14	11	125.3	127.6	98.5
Nov 3	CLE	121–116	45-86	15-31	16-24	18	7	118.6	112.6	102.5
Nov 1	@BOS	104–155	46-101	5-37	7-12	9	8	97.2	144.9	107.0
Oct 30	CHI	105–112	36-88	12-46	21-25	17	11	101.9	108.7	103.0
Oct 28	@CLE	125–113	48-98	15-38	14-17	7	11	127.6	114.1	98.5
Oct 25	WAS	143–120	56-107	20-43	11-12	12	10	128.8	109.1	110.5
Apr 9	@NYK	141–136	46-89	19-34	30-38	15	8	127.0	122.5	111.0
Apr 7	DET	115–122	41-83	11-31	22-28	19	9	109.5	116.2	105.0
Apr 5	NYK	129–138	45-87	15-30	24-30	17	10	124.0	130.2	105.0
Apr 2	@CLE	105–115	36-83	9-24	24-29	15	11	104.0	115.0	100.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games

65%

pregame chance the forecast gave IND, the winner

IND was the forecast favorite

36 pts

margin miss

forecast +5, actual +41 for IND

969th

most surprising result of 2023-24

of 1,312 graded games

21st

largest margin miss of 2023-24

outcome surprise 0.44 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	SAS	IND
Final score	111	152
Field goals	40–94 · 42.6%	55–95 · 57.9%
Three-pointers	8–26 · 30.8%	20–38 · 52.6%
Free throws	23–30 · 76.7%	22–23 · 95.7%
Rebounds	36	49
Assists	26	38
Turnovers	11	14
Steals	7	7
Blocks	5	4

How the model does with these teams over time: San Antonio Spurs · Indiana Pacers

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (IND)	+5	+41	+36
Total points	235	263	+28
SAS points	115	111	−4
IND points	120	152	+32

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
SAS	28	33	26	24	–	111
IND	44	42	33	33	–	152

Recent form before this game