2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets

Wednesday, April 2, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

SAS 2–1@DEN 1–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
SAS San Antonio Spurs	112	113	+1
DEN Denver Nuggets (home)	124	106	−18

Forecast: Denver Nuggets to win, 79% win probability, projected margin 12.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	SAS	DEN
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1403	1595
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+263
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−2.6	+4.1
Games played this season	77	76
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	114.3	118.9
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	119.4	117.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	29.7	0.0
Rest days	1	1
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	Yes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAS1403DEN1595

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAS1403

Ended last season at 1400 → started this one at 1425
First 67 games: −26.5
Last 10 games: +4.3

WNOP119–115+3.9
L@LAL109–125−4.3
WNYK120–105+20.6
WPHI128–120+5.4
W@TOR123–89+27.7
L@DET96–122−8.7
L@CLE116–124−1.8
LBOS111–121−4.0
LGSW106–148−22.6
LORL105–116−11.9

DEN1595

Ended last season at 1649 → started this one at 1612
First 66 games: +13.1
Last 10 games: −30.2

WLAL131–126+4.6
LWAS123–126−15.5
W@GSW114–105+11.7
L@LAL108–120−10.0
L@POR109–128−18.9
W@HOU116–111+8.6
LCHI119–129−17.9
WMIL127–117+7.7
WUTA129–93+4.1
LMIN139–140−4.6

Season scoring marginSAS−2.6DEN+4.1

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAS−2.6

Scores 114.3, allows 116.9 over 77 games: −2.6 a game.

DEN+4.1

Scores 121.1, allows 117.0 over 76 games: +4.1 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10SAS114.3DEN118.9

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.7).

SAS114.3scored, +0.6 vs league

Factor	SAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.7%	54.4%	+0.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.7%	12.1%	+0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.6%	25.2%	+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.191	0.193	−0.1
Everything else			−1.3

DEN118.9scored, +5.2 vs league

Factor	DEN	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.0%	54.4%	+5.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.1%	12.1%	−1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.4%	25.2%	+1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.229	0.193	+1.0
Everything else			−1.2

Defensive rating, last 10SAS119.4DEN117.8

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.7).

SAS119.4allowed, +5.7 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.8%	54.4%	−5.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.2%	12.1%	−1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.2%	25.2%	−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.160	0.193	+1.0
Everything else			+0.1

DEN117.8allowed, +4.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.2%	54.4%	−1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.4%	12.1%	−0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.4%	25.2%	−1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.189	0.193	+0.1
Everything else			−0.7

Pace, last 10average 99.5

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAS 99.2 and DEN 99.9 → average 99.5 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.6)

Rotation points missingSAS29.7DEN0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAS29.7pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Devin Vassell	17.9	33.0	10
Jeremy Sochan	11.8	26.4	9

Source: official injury report, 2025-04-02 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

DEN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-04-02 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestSAS1 daysDEN1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAS1day, back-to-back

Last played Apr 1 against ORL.

DEN1day, back-to-back

Last played Apr 1 against MIN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 1	ORL	105–116	40-81	13-32	12-17	17	9	111.7	122.1	94.5
Mar 30	GSW	106–148	40-84	16-42	10-16	21	7	101.0	141.0	105.0
Mar 29	BOS	111–121	38-87	14-40	21-27	4	10	115.6	127.4	95.5
Mar 27	@CLE	116–124	43-106	14-43	16-21	10	19	113.7	120.4	102.5
Mar 25	@DET	96–122	33-91	14-44	16-20	10	16	103.2	131.2	93.0
Mar 23	@TOR	123–89	41-86	14-43	27-32	14	13	119.4	87.3	102.5
Mar 21	PHI	128–120	47-89	19-39	15-18	14	9	123.1	116.5	103.5
Mar 19	NYK	120–105	45-90	16-35	14-20	13	15	126.3	109.4	95.5
Mar 17	@LAL	109–125	41-88	15-38	12-14	17	9	110.1	123.8	100.0
Mar 15	NOP	119–115	39-84	16-39	25-33	10	8	119.0	115.0	100.0

DEN

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 1	MIN	139–140	47-86	12-34	33-44	16	8	121.9	122.8	94.3
Mar 28	UTA	129–93	48-83	11-29	22-28	18	9	125.2	90.3	103.0
Mar 26	MIL	127–117	49-90	16-37	13-22	9	8	127.0	118.2	99.5
Mar 24	CHI	119–129	46-97	11-36	16-24	12	17	117.8	127.7	101.0
Mar 23	@HOU	116–111	44-87	10-21	18-26	9	10	124.7	120.7	92.5
Mar 21	@POR	109–128	38-76	9-26	24-28	20	11	113.5	133.3	96.0
Mar 19	@LAL	108–120	41-87	13-39	13-21	18	12	105.9	117.6	102.0
Mar 17	@GSW	114–105	43-92	14-39	14-18	20	16	109.6	101.9	103.5
Mar 15	WAS	123–126	48-95	12-34	15-17	17	10	116.0	121.2	105.0
Mar 14	LAL	131–126	44-85	13-31	30-38	12	9	127.2	124.8	102.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games

21%

pregame chance the forecast gave SAS, the winner

the forecast favored DEN

19 pts

margin miss

forecast +12, actual −7 for DEN

16th

most surprising result of 2024-25

of 1,309 graded games

208th

largest margin miss of 2024-25

outcome surprise 1.56 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	SAS	DEN
Final score	113	106
Field goals	43–97 · 44.3%	38–96 · 39.6%
Three-pointers	17–46 · 37.0%	13–44 · 29.5%
Free throws	10–13 · 76.9%	17–25 · 68.0%
Rebounds	52	58
Assists	27	24
Turnovers	10	12
Steals	6	7
Blocks	5	4

How the model does with these teams over time: San Antonio Spurs · Denver Nuggets

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (DEN)	+12	−7	−19
Total points	236	219	−17
SAS points	112	113	+1
DEN points	124	106	−18

Recent form before this game