Western Conference · 2026-27

Memphis Grizzlies MEM

6–3

2026-27 record

1405

Elo rating

with the forecast of Nov 6

112.8

Offensive rating

last 10 games

110.5

Defensive rating

last 10, lower is better

101.9

Pace

possessions per game

Hover the ball to see a season.

Every graded MEM game, one dot each, oldest at the center. 237 of 345 forecasts picked the winner (colored dots).

Elo rating, recent games

Pregame Elo stored with each of MEM's last 82 forecasts. Dashed: 1500, the long-run average.

Elo rating recorded with each team's most recent forecast. Higher is stronger; 1500 is the long-run average. MEM ranks 23 of 30.

Upcoming

Schedule

Nov 9 7:30 PM ET

MEM Memphis Grizzlies 6–3 –

@TOR Toronto Raptors 5–4 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 11 8:00 PM ET

DEN Denver Nuggets 5–3 –

@MEM Memphis Grizzlies 6–3 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 13 8:00 PM ET

MEM Memphis Grizzlies 6–3 –

@NOP New Orleans Pelicans 4–6 –

Forecast coming Details

Nov 14 8:00 PM ET

BKN Brooklyn Nets 2–8 –

@MEM Memphis Grizzlies 6–3 –

Forecast coming Details

Recent results

Predictability

How closely the forecasts tracked MEM games. A team can be hard for this model to forecast whether it is good or bad: misses come from the model's limits, roster changes, missing information and ordinary game-to-game variation. Compare all 30 teams

2026-27 (in progress)

Small sample: 9 games. These figures are a running log, not a measurement, and no ranking is shown.

15.6 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.2 to 20.8

+6.7

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.6 to 15.6

18.2 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.7

33%

winner picked

9 games involving MEM

6 / 4.4

actual / expected wins

gap +1.6

0.307

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 9 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	MEM win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 6	vs OKC	38%	112–116	L 97–128	✓correct	−27
Nov 4	vs IND	68%	120–114	L 103–107	✗missed	−10
Nov 2	vs NOP	56%	120–118	L 134–135	✗missed	−3
Oct 31	vs SAC	59%	122–119	W 136–105	✓correct	+28
Oct 29	at POR	24%	112–122	W 124–103	✗missed	+31
Oct 26	at UTA	47%	121–122	W 110–105	✗missed	+6
Oct 25	at SAC	44%	117–119	W 123–112	✗missed	+13
Oct 23	at GSW	39%	117–121	W 111–108	✗missed	+7
Oct 21	vs UTA	64%	127–122	W 123–103	✓correct	+15

2025-26

Across 80 graded games, MEM finished an average of 3.9 points worse than the forecast margin (90% interval -6.4 to -1.5).

10.7 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.1 to 12.4; 10th smallest of 30

−3.9

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -6.4 to -1.5

13.8 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.4

73%

winner picked

80 games involving MEM

24 / 35.3

actual / expected wins

gap −11.3

0.203

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 80 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	MEM win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 12	at HOU	11%	106–124	L 101–132	✓correct	−13
Apr 10	at UTA	66%	124–118	L 101–147	✗missed	−52
Apr 8	at DEN	8%	110–132	L 119–136	✓correct	+5
Apr 6	vs CLE	27%	114–123	L 126–142	✓correct	−7
Apr 5	at MIL	41%	113–116	L 115–131	✓correct	−13
Apr 3	vs TOR	22%	113–124	L 96–128	✓correct	−21
Apr 1	vs NYK	20%	107–119	L 119–130	✓correct	+1
Mar 30	vs PHX	27%	110–119	L 105–131	✓correct	−17
Mar 28	vs CHI	39%	116–120	W 125–124	✗missed	+5
Mar 27	vs HOU	34%	113–119	L 109–119	✓correct	−4
Mar 25	vs SAS	17%	113–127	L 98–123	✓correct	−11
Mar 23	at ATL	20%	113–125	L 107–146	✓correct	−27
Mar 21	at CHA	17%	108–122	L 101–124	✓correct	−9
Mar 20	vs BOS	24%	108–118	L 112–117	✓correct	+5
Mar 18	vs DEN	29%	118–126	W 125–118	✗missed	+15
Mar 16	at CHI	44%	116–118	L 107–132	✓correct	−23
Mar 13	at DET	22%	110–121	L 110–126	✓correct	−5
Mar 12	vs DAL	53%	118–117	L 112–120	✗missed	−9
Mar 10	at PHI	47%	117–118	L 129–139	✓correct	−9
Mar 9	at BKN	61%	117–113	L 115–126	✗missed	−15
Mar 7	vs LAC	42%	114–117	L 120–123	✓correct	±0
Mar 4	vs POR	42%	117–120	L 114–122	✓correct	−5
Mar 3	at MIN	26%	114–123	L 110–117	✓correct	+2
Mar 1	at IND	71%	121–113	W 125–106	✓correct	+11
Feb 27	at DAL	53%	119–118	W 124–105	✓correct	+18
Feb 25	vs GSW	47%	119–120	L 112–133	✓correct	−20
Feb 23	vs SAC	71%	123–115	L 114–123	✗missed	−17
Feb 21	at MIA	29%	114–122	L 120–136	✓correct	−8
Feb 20	vs UTA	67%	120–114	W 123–114	✓correct	+3
Feb 11	at DEN	36%	112–117	L 116–122	✓correct	−1
Feb 9	at GSW	31%	114–121	L 113–114	✓correct	+6
Feb 7	at POR	39%	116–120	L 115–122	✓correct	−3
Feb 6	at POR	36%	115–120	L 115–135	✓correct	−15
Feb 4	at SAC	53%	115–114	W 129–125	✓correct	+3
Feb 2	vs MIN	27%	111–120	W 137–128	✗missed	+18
Jan 31	vs MIN	29%	111–119	L 114–131	✓correct	−9
Jan 30	at NOP	44%	113–115	L 106–114	✓correct	−6
Jan 28	vs CHA	39%	111–115	L 97–112	✓correct	−11
Jan 26	at HOU	29%	109–117	L 99–108	✓correct	−1
Jan 23	vs NOP	67%	119–113	L 127–133	✗missed	−12
Jan 21	vs ATL	56%	117–115	L 122–124	✗missed	−4
Jan 11	vs BKN	67%	116–110	W 103–98	✓correct	−1
Jan 9	vs OKC	29%	115–123	L 116–117	✓correct	+7
Jan 7	vs PHX	42%	116–119	L 98–117	✓correct	−16
Jan 6	vs SAS	34%	115–121	W 106–105	✗missed	+7
Jan 4	at LAL	47%	118–119	L 114–120	✓correct	−5
Jan 2	at LAL	56%	118–116	L 121–128	✗missed	−9
Dec 30	vs PHI	61%	117–113	L 136–139	✗missed	−7
Dec 28	at WAS	74%	123–114	L 112–116	✗missed	−13
Dec 26	vs MIL	69%	118–111	W 125–104	✓correct	+14
Dec 23	at UTA	74%	122–113	W 137–128	✓correct	±0
Dec 22	at OKC	15%	108–123	L 103–119	✓correct	−1
Dec 20	vs WAS	85%	123–108	L 122–130	✗missed	−23
Dec 17	at MIN	29%	111–119	W 116–110	✗missed	+14
Dec 15	at LAC	56%	115–113	W 121–103	✓correct	+16
Dec 12	vs UTA	71%	120–112	L 126–130	✗missed	−12
Dec 7	vs POR	67%	119–113	W 119–96	✓correct	+17
Dec 5	vs LAC	53%	115–114	W 107–98	✓correct	+8
Dec 2	at SAS	47%	116–117	L 119–126	✓correct	−6
Nov 30	at SAC	58%	117–114	W 115–107	✓correct	+5
Nov 28	at LAC	53%	115–114	W 112–107	✓correct	+4
Nov 26	at NOP	61%	118–114	W 133–128	✓correct	+1
Nov 24	vs DEN	47%	116–117	L 115–125	✓correct	−9
Nov 22	at DAL	47%	114–115	W 102–96	✗missed	+7
Nov 20	vs SAC	47%	115–116	W 137–96	✗missed	+42
Nov 18	at SAS	31%	113–120	L 101–111	✓correct	−3
Nov 15	at CLE	26%	115–124	L 100–108	✓correct	+1
Nov 12	at BOS	29%	110–118	L 95–131	✓correct	−28
Nov 11	at NYK	31%	115–122	L 120–133	✓correct	−6
Nov 9	vs OKC	29%	115–123	L 100–114	✓correct	−6
Nov 7	vs DAL	59%	120–117	W 118–104	✓correct	+11
Nov 5	vs HOU	44%	114–116	L 109–124	✓correct	−13
Nov 3	vs DET	42%	116–119	L 106–114	✓correct	−5
Nov 2	at TOR	56%	120–118	L 104–117	✗missed	−15
Oct 31	vs LAL	53%	118–117	L 112–117	✗missed	−6
Oct 29	at PHX	58%	118–115	W 114–113	✓correct	−2
Oct 27	at GSW	36%	114–119	L 118–131	✓correct	−8
Oct 25	vs IND	44%	115–117	W 128–103	✗missed	+27
Oct 24	vs MIA	67%	120–114	L 114–146	✗missed	−38
Oct 22	vs NOP	80%	121–109	W 128–122	✓correct	−6

2024-25

11.8 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.1 to 13.7; 23rd smallest of 30

+2.3

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -0.5 to 4.8

15.4 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

71%

winner picked

86 games involving MEM

48 / 46.0

actual / expected wins

gap +2.0

0.200

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 86 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	MEM win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 26 PO	vs OKC	29%	105–114	L 115–117	✓correct	+7
Apr 24 PO	vs OKC	36%	108–114	L 108–114	✓correct	±0
Apr 22 PO	at OKC	21%	108–120	L 99–118	✓correct	−7
Apr 20 PO	at OKC	21%	107–119	L 80–131	✓correct	−39
Apr 13	vs DAL	54%	117–116	W 132–97	✓correct	+34
Apr 11	at DEN	31%	115–122	L 109–117	✓correct	−1
Apr 10	vs MIN	49%	111–112	L 125–141	✓correct	−15
Apr 8	at CHA	71%	120–111	W 124–100	✓correct	+15
Apr 5	at DET	33%	115–121	W 109–103	✗missed	+12
Apr 3	at MIA	46%	113–114	W 110–108	✗missed	+3
Apr 1	vs GSW	54%	115–114	L 125–134	✗missed	−10
Mar 31	vs BOS	36%	110–116	L 103–117	✓correct	−8
Mar 29	vs LAL	67%	120–114	L 127–134	✗missed	−13
Mar 27	at OKC	19%	111–124	L 104–125	✓correct	−8
Mar 25	at UTA	73%	124–114	W 140–103	✓correct	+27
Mar 21	at LAC	33%	110–116	L 108–128	✓correct	−14
Mar 19	at POR	46%	115–116	L 99–115	✓correct	−15
Mar 17	at SAC	38%	114–118	L 122–132	✓correct	−6
Mar 15	vs MIA	67%	119–113	W 125–91	✓correct	+28
Mar 14	vs CLE	49%	119–120	L 124–133	✓correct	−8
Mar 12	vs UTA	73%	124–115	W 122–115	✓correct	−2
Mar 10	vs PHX	67%	123–117	W 120–118	✓correct	−4
Mar 9	at NOP	64%	123–117	W 107–104	✓correct	−3
Mar 7	at DAL	59%	119–115	W 122–111	✓correct	+7
Mar 5	vs OKC	49%	121–122	L 103–120	✓correct	−16
Mar 3	vs ATL	73%	125–116	L 130–132	✗missed	−11
Mar 1	vs SAS	73%	124–115	L 128–130	✗missed	−11
Feb 28	vs NYK	71%	122–114	L 113–114	✗missed	−9
Feb 25	vs PHX	77%	124–113	W 151–148	✓correct	−8
Feb 23	at CLE	33%	116–122	L 123–129	✓correct	±0
Feb 21	at ORL	51%	115–114	W 105–104	✓correct	±0
Feb 20	at IND	51%	121–120	L 113–127	✗missed	−15
Feb 12	at LAC	41%	117–120	L 114–128	✓correct	−11
Feb 11	at PHX	61%	121–116	W 119–112	✓correct	+2
Feb 8	vs OKC	67%	120–114	L 112–125	✗missed	−19
Feb 5	at TOR	69%	121–113	W 138–107	✓correct	+23
Feb 3	vs SAS	77%	125–114	W 128–109	✓correct	+8
Feb 2	at MIL	43%	122–124	W 132–119	✗missed	+15
Jan 30	vs HOU	62%	120–116	W 120–119	✓correct	−3
Jan 27	at NYK	41%	114–117	L 106–143	✓correct	−34
Jan 25	vs UTA	79%	122–110	W 125–103	✓correct	+10
Jan 24	vs NOP	77%	123–112	W 139–126	✓correct	+2
Jan 22	vs CHA	81%	122–109	W 132–120	✓correct	−1
Jan 20	vs MIN	67%	119–113	W 108–106	✓correct	−4
Jan 17	at SAS	51%	117–116	W 140–112	✓correct	+27
Jan 15	at SAS	51%	117–116	W 129–115	✓correct	+13
Jan 13	at HOU	38%	115–119	L 118–120	✓correct	+2
Jan 11	at MIN	43%	114–116	W 127–125	✗missed	+4
Jan 9	vs HOU	69%	120–113	L 115–119	✗missed	−11
Jan 6	vs DAL	54%	119–118	W 119–104	✓correct	+14
Jan 4	at GSW	51%	117–116	L 113–121	✗missed	−9
Jan 3	at SAC	46%	116–117	L 133–138	✓correct	−4
Dec 31	at PHX	54%	120–118	W 117–112	✓correct	+3
Dec 29	at OKC	29%	113–121	L 106–130	✓correct	−16
Dec 27	at NOP	75%	122–111	W 132–124	✓correct	−3
Dec 26	vs TOR	77%	123–112	W 155–126	✓correct	+18
Dec 23	vs LAC	69%	120–113	L 110–114	✗missed	−11
Dec 21	at ATL	56%	116–113	W 128–112	✓correct	+13
Dec 19	vs GSW	62%	119–115	W 144–93	✓correct	+47
Dec 15	at LAL	59%	118–114	L 110–116	✗missed	−10
Dec 13	vs BKN	81%	123–110	W 135–119	✓correct	+3
Dec 8	at WAS	79%	124–111	W 140–112	✓correct	+15
Dec 7	at BOS	23%	110–121	W 127–121	✗missed	+17
Dec 5	vs SAC	71%	121–113	W 115–110	✓correct	−3
Dec 3	at DAL	31%	114–121	L 116–121	✓correct	+2
Dec 1	vs IND	69%	122–115	W 136–121	✓correct	+8
Nov 29	vs NOP	84%	123–108	W 120–109	✓correct	−4
Nov 27	vs DET	71%	118–110	W 131–111	✓correct	+12
Nov 25	vs POR	69%	120–113	W 123–98	✓correct	+18
Nov 23	at CHI	46%	117–118	W 142–131	✗missed	+12
Nov 20	vs PHI	69%	116–109	W 117–111	✓correct	−1
Nov 19	vs DEN	62%	118–114	L 110–122	✗missed	−16
Nov 17	vs DEN	62%	120–116	W 105–90	✓correct	+11
Nov 15	at GSW	25%	111–121	L 118–123	✓correct	+5
Nov 13	at LAL	31%	115–122	L 123–128	✓correct	+2
Nov 10	at POR	43%	114–116	W 134–89	✗missed	+47
Nov 8	vs WAS	69%	122–115	W 128–104	✓correct	+17
Nov 6	vs LAL	46%	117–119	W 131–114	✗missed	+19
Nov 4	at BKN	36%	112–117	L 104–106	✓correct	+3
Nov 2	at PHI	27%	106–115	W 124–107	✗missed	+26
Oct 31	vs MIL	36%	111–117	W 122–99	✗missed	+29
Oct 30	vs BKN	54%	114–113	L 106–119	✗missed	−14
Oct 28	vs CHI	46%	115–117	L 123–126	✓correct	−1
Oct 26	vs ORL	39%	107–112	W 124–111	✗missed	+18
Oct 25	at HOU	27%	109–118	L 108–128	✓correct	−11
Oct 23	at UTA	41%	110–113	W 126–124	✗missed	+5

2023-24

11.0 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.6 to 12.5; 17th smallest of 30

−2.2

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -4.6 to 0.2

13.6 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.3

62%

winner picked

82 games involving MEM

27 / 33.4

actual / expected wins

gap −6.4

0.241

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 82 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	MEM win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 14	vs DEN	26%	105–120	L 111–126	✓correct	±0
Apr 12	vs LAL	25%	108–124	L 120–123	✓correct	+13
Apr 10	at CLE	28%	108–117	L 98–110	✓correct	−3
Apr 9	vs SAS	43%	109–115	L 87–102	✓correct	−9
Apr 6	vs PHI	33%	105–116	L 96–116	✓correct	−9
Apr 5	vs DET	53%	110–111	W 108–90	✗missed	+19
Apr 3	at MIL	32%	110–117	W 111–101	✗missed	+17
Apr 1	at DET	41%	109–111	W 110–108	✗missed	+4
Mar 30	at ORL	30%	102–110	L 88–118	✓correct	−22
Mar 27	vs LAL	41%	111–118	L 124–136	✓correct	−5
Mar 25	at DEN	25%	104–115	L 103–128	✓correct	−14
Mar 22	at SAS	34%	106–112	W 99–97	✗missed	+8
Mar 20	at GSW	24%	103–115	L 116–137	✓correct	−9
Mar 18	at SAC	22%	102–115	L 111–121	✓correct	+3
Mar 16	vs OKC	41%	106–113	L 112–118	✓correct	+1
Mar 13	vs CHA	57%	106–105	L 98–110	✗missed	−13
Mar 12	vs WAS	61%	113–110	W 109–97	✓correct	+9
Mar 10	at OKC	19%	105–120	L 93–124	✓correct	−16
Mar 8	vs ATL	51%	106–108	L 92–99	✓correct	−5
Mar 6	at PHI	32%	102–109	W 115–109	✗missed	+13
Mar 4	at BKN	34%	103–109	W 106–102	✗missed	+10
Mar 2	vs POR	51%	105–107	L 100–107	✓correct	−5
Mar 1	vs POR	53%	108–109	L 92–122	✓correct	−29
Feb 28	at MIN	24%	105–117	L 101–110	✓correct	+3
Feb 26	vs BKN	53%	112–113	L 86–111	✓correct	−24
Feb 23	vs LAC	49%	114–117	L 95–101	✓correct	−3
Feb 15	vs MIL	35%	107–117	W 113–110	✗missed	+13
Feb 14	vs HOU	47%	110–114	W 121–113	✗missed	+12
Feb 12	vs NOP	41%	110–117	L 87–96	✓correct	−2
Feb 10	at CHA	51%	114–111	L 106–115	✗missed	−12
Feb 8	vs CHI	47%	109–113	L 110–118	✓correct	−4
Feb 6	at NYK	28%	104–113	L 113–123	✓correct	−1
Feb 4	at BOS	30%	106–114	L 91–131	✓correct	−32
Feb 2	vs GSW	47%	107–111	L 101–121	✓correct	−16
Feb 1	vs CLE	47%	108–112	L 101–108	✓correct	−3
Jan 29	vs SAC	41%	109–116	L 94–103	✓correct	−2
Jan 28	at IND	28%	111–120	L 110–116	✓correct	+3
Jan 26	vs ORL	49%	106–109	W 107–106	✗missed	+4
Jan 24	at MIA	32%	105–112	W 105–96	✗missed	+16
Jan 22	at TOR	25%	114–125	W 108–100	✗missed	+19
Jan 20	at CHI	35%	109–114	L 96–125	✓correct	−24
Jan 18	at MIN	22%	107–120	L 103–118	✓correct	−2
Jan 15	vs GSW	43%	110–116	W 116–107	✗missed	+15
Jan 13	vs NYK	33%	110–121	L 94–106	✓correct	−1
Jan 12	vs LAC	41%	108–115	L 119–128	✓correct	−2
Jan 9	at DAL	30%	112–120	W 120–103	✗missed	+25
Jan 7	at PHX	32%	111–118	W 121–115	✗missed	+13
Jan 5	at LAL	34%	111–117	W 127–113	✗missed	+20
Jan 3	vs TOR	49%	113–116	L 111–116	✓correct	−2
Jan 2	vs SAS	65%	119–114	W 106–98	✓correct	+3
Dec 31	vs SAC	49%	114–117	L 92–123	✓correct	−28
Dec 29	at LAC	32%	112–119	L 106–117	✓correct	−4
Dec 28	at DEN	35%	111–116	L 105–142	✓correct	−32
Dec 26	at NOP	34%	113–119	W 116–115	✗missed	+7
Dec 23	at ATL	35%	114–119	W 125–119	✗missed	+11
Dec 21	vs IND	51%	114–116	W 116–103	✗missed	+15
Dec 19	at NOP	30%	112–120	W 115–113	✗missed	+10
Dec 18	at OKC	25%	109–120	L 97–116	✓correct	−8
Dec 15	vs HOU	49%	108–111	L 96–103	✓correct	−4
Dec 13	at HOU	30%	104–112	L 104–117	✓correct	−5
Dec 11	vs DAL	57%	111–110	L 113–120	✗missed	−8
Dec 8	vs MIN	47%	107–111	L 103–127	✓correct	−20
Dec 6	at DET	43%	113–114	W 116–102	✗missed	+15
Dec 2	at PHX	35%	104–109	L 109–116	✓correct	−2
Dec 1	at DAL	35%	112–117	W 108–94	✗missed	+19
Nov 29	vs UTA	57%	113–112	W 105–91	✓correct	+13
Nov 26	vs MIN	41%	106–113	L 97–119	✓correct	−15
Nov 24	vs PHX	53%	110–111	L 89–110	✓correct	−20
Nov 22	at HOU	37%	108–112	L 91–111	✓correct	−16
Nov 19	vs BOS	49%	111–114	L 100–102	✓correct	+1
Nov 18	at SAS	51%	117–114	W 120–108	✓correct	+9
Nov 14	at LAL	37%	112–116	L 107–134	✓correct	−23
Nov 12	at LAC	32%	111–118	W 105–101	✗missed	+11
Nov 10	vs UTA	63%	117–113	L 121–127	✗missed	−10
Nov 8	vs MIA	51%	110–112	L 102–108	✓correct	−4
Nov 5	at POR	51%	115–112	W 112–100	✓correct	+9
Nov 3	at POR	51%	116–113	L 113–115	✗missed	−5
Nov 1	at UTA	47%	116–115	L 109–133	✗missed	−25
Oct 30	vs DAL	65%	118–113	L 110–125	✗missed	−20
Oct 28	at WAS	47%	118–117	L 106–113	✗missed	−8
Oct 27	vs DEN	53%	110–111	L 104–108	✓correct	−3
Oct 25	vs NOP	65%	115–110	L 104–111	✗missed	−12

2022-23

11.4 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 9.8 to 13.1; 24th smallest of 30

−1.2

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -3.7 to 1.3

14.7 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 10.3

73%

winner picked

88 games involving MEM

53 / 53.1

actual / expected wins

gap −0.1

0.201

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 88 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	MEM win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Apr 28 PO	at LAL	42%	109–112	L 85–125	✓correct	−37
Apr 26 PO	vs LAL	58%	112–109	W 116–99	✓correct	+14
Apr 24 PO	at LAL	30%	109–117	L 111–117	✓correct	+2
Apr 22 PO	at LAL	40%	110–114	L 101–111	✓correct	−6
Apr 19 PO	vs LAL	68%	118–111	W 103–93	✓correct	+3
Apr 16 PO	vs LAL	81%	120–106	L 112–128	✗missed	−30
Apr 9	at OKC	53%	123–122	L 100–115	✗missed	−16
Apr 7	at MIL	47%	117–118	W 137–114	✗missed	+24
Apr 5	at NOP	53%	115–114	L 131–138	✗missed	−8
Apr 4	vs POR	84%	128–112	W 119–109	✓correct	−6
Apr 2	at CHI	63%	117–112	L 107–128	✗missed	−26
Mar 31	vs LAC	63%	115–110	W 108–94	✓correct	+9
Mar 29	vs LAC	58%	113–110	L 132–141	✗missed	−12
Mar 28	vs ORL	63%	116–111	W 113–108	✓correct	±0
Mar 26	at ATL	53%	121–120	W 123–119	✓correct	+3
Mar 24	vs HOU	87%	122–104	W 151–114	✓correct	+19
Mar 22	vs HOU	84%	121–105	W 130–125	✓correct	−11
Mar 20	vs DAL	72%	116–107	W 112–108	✓correct	−5
Mar 18	vs GSW	55%	115–113	W 133–119	✓correct	+12
Mar 17	at SAS	78%	121–109	W 126–120	✓correct	−6
Mar 15	at MIA	55%	112–110	L 119–138	✗missed	−21
Mar 13	at DAL	45%	117–119	W 104–88	✗missed	+18
Mar 11	vs DAL	78%	121–109	W 112–108	✓correct	−8
Mar 9	vs GSW	60%	116–112	W 131–110	✓correct	+17
Mar 7	at LAL	47%	112–113	L 103–112	✓correct	−8
Mar 5	at LAC	47%	115–116	L 129–135	✓correct	−5
Mar 3	at DEN	37%	111–116	L 97–113	✓correct	−11
Mar 1	at HOU	76%	125–114	W 113–99	✓correct	+3
Feb 28	vs LAL	70%	117–109	W 121–109	✓correct	+4
Feb 25	vs DEN	58%	114–111	W 112–94	✓correct	+15
Feb 23	at PHI	37%	109–114	L 105–110	✓correct	±0
Feb 15	vs UTA	74%	122–112	W 117–111	✓correct	−4
Feb 12	at BOS	55%	111–109	L 109–119	✗missed	−12
Feb 10	vs MIN	53%	113–112	W 128–107	✓correct	+20
Feb 7	vs CHI	53%	115–114	W 104–89	✓correct	+14
Feb 5	vs TOR	47%	117–118	L 103–106	✓correct	−2
Feb 2	at CLE	45%	108–110	L 113–128	✓correct	−13
Feb 1	vs POR	76%	123–112	L 112–122	✗missed	−21
Jan 29	vs IND	65%	117–111	W 112–100	✓correct	+6
Jan 27	at MIN	60%	118–114	L 100–111	✗missed	−15
Jan 25	at GSW	63%	118–113	L 120–122	✗missed	−7
Jan 23	at SAC	42%	116–119	L 100–133	✓correct	−30
Jan 22	at PHX	55%	114–112	L 110–112	✗missed	−4
Jan 20	at LAL	47%	118–119	L 121–122	✓correct	±0
Jan 18	vs CLE	60%	115–111	W 115–114	✓correct	−3
Jan 16	vs PHX	68%	119–112	W 136–106	✓correct	+23
Jan 14	at IND	65%	120–114	W 130–112	✓correct	+12
Jan 11	vs SAS	80%	121–108	W 135–129	✓correct	−7
Jan 9	vs SAS	81%	120–106	W 121–113	✓correct	−6
Jan 8	vs UTA	68%	120–113	W 123–118	✓correct	−2
Jan 5	at ORL	65%	117–111	W 123–115	✓correct	+2
Jan 4	at CHA	76%	122–111	W 131–107	✓correct	+13
Jan 1	vs SAC	58%	115–112	W 118–108	✓correct	+7
Dec 31	vs NOP	63%	117–112	W 116–101	✓correct	+10
Dec 29	at TOR	68%	115–108	W 119–106	✓correct	+6
Dec 27	vs PHX	78%	118–106	L 108–125	✗missed	−29
Dec 25	at GSW	63%	113–108	L 109–123	✗missed	−19
Dec 23	at PHX	42%	109–112	W 125–100	✗missed	+28
Dec 20	at DEN	47%	116–117	L 91–105	✓correct	−13
Dec 17	at OKC	72%	119–110	L 109–115	✗missed	−15
Dec 15	vs MIL	60%	114–110	W 142–101	✓correct	+37
Dec 12	vs ATL	70%	117–109	W 128–103	✓correct	+17
Dec 9	vs DET	76%	119–108	W 114–103	✓correct	±0
Dec 7	vs OKC	65%	116–110	W 123–102	✓correct	+15
Dec 5	vs MIA	37%	108–113	W 101–93	✗missed	+13
Dec 4	at DET	70%	118–110	W 122–112	✓correct	+2
Dec 2	vs PHI	53%	109–108	W 117–109	✓correct	+7
Nov 30	at MIN	53%	114–113	L 101–109	✗missed	−9
Nov 27	at NYK	60%	115–111	W 127–123	✓correct	±0
Nov 25	vs NOP	47%	112–113	W 132–111	✗missed	+22
Nov 22	vs SAC	72%	120–111	L 109–113	✗missed	−13
Nov 20	at BKN	47%	112–113	L 115–127	✓correct	−11
Nov 18	vs OKC	68%	114–107	W 121–110	✓correct	+4
Nov 15	at NOP	47%	109–110	L 102–113	✓correct	−10
Nov 13	at WAS	60%	113–109	L 92–102	✗missed	−14
Nov 11	vs MIN	55%	112–110	W 114–103	✓correct	+9
Nov 9	at SAS	78%	121–109	W 124–122	✓correct	−10
Nov 7	vs BOS	42%	110–113	L 106–109	✓correct	±0
Nov 6	vs WAS	76%	118–107	W 103–97	✓correct	−5
Nov 4	vs CHA	63%	115–110	W 130–99	✓correct	+26
Nov 2	at POR	68%	113–106	W 111–106	✓correct	−2
Oct 31	at UTA	47%	110–111	L 105–121	✓correct	−15
Oct 29	at UTA	53%	109–108	L 123–124	✗missed	−2
Oct 27	at SAC	68%	118–111	W 125–110	✓correct	+8
Oct 24	vs BKN	60%	114–110	W 134–124	✓correct	+6
Oct 22	at DAL	53%	109–108	L 96–137	✗missed	−42
Oct 21	at HOU	72%	118–109	W 129–122	✓correct	−2
Oct 19	vs NYK	58%	111–108	W 115–112	✓correct	±0

2022-23 to 2026-27

11.3 pts

average margin miss

90% interval 10.5 to 12.2; 22nd smallest of 30

−1.0

average margin error

+ = better than forecast; 90% interval -2.3 to 0.3

14.7 pts

error variability

std. deviation; league margin miss 11.0

69%

winner picked

345 games involving MEM

158 / 172.2

actual / expected wins

gap −14.2

0.213

Brier score

0.25 = coin flip; lower is better

All 345 games in this sample

Date	Opponent	MEM win prob.	Projected	Final	Pick	Margin error
Nov 6	vs OKC	38%	112–116	L 97–128	✓correct	−27
Nov 4	vs IND	68%	120–114	L 103–107	✗missed	−10
Nov 2	vs NOP	56%	120–118	L 134–135	✗missed	−3
Oct 31	vs SAC	59%	122–119	W 136–105	✓correct	+28
Oct 29	at POR	24%	112–122	W 124–103	✗missed	+31
Oct 26	at UTA	47%	121–122	W 110–105	✗missed	+6
Oct 25	at SAC	44%	117–119	W 123–112	✗missed	+13
Oct 23	at GSW	39%	117–121	W 111–108	✗missed	+7
Oct 21	vs UTA	64%	127–122	W 123–103	✓correct	+15
Apr 12	at HOU	11%	106–124	L 101–132	✓correct	−13
Apr 10	at UTA	66%	124–118	L 101–147	✗missed	−52
Apr 8	at DEN	8%	110–132	L 119–136	✓correct	+5
Apr 6	vs CLE	27%	114–123	L 126–142	✓correct	−7
Apr 5	at MIL	41%	113–116	L 115–131	✓correct	−13
Apr 3	vs TOR	22%	113–124	L 96–128	✓correct	−21
Apr 1	vs NYK	20%	107–119	L 119–130	✓correct	+1
Mar 30	vs PHX	27%	110–119	L 105–131	✓correct	−17
Mar 28	vs CHI	39%	116–120	W 125–124	✗missed	+5
Mar 27	vs HOU	34%	113–119	L 109–119	✓correct	−4
Mar 25	vs SAS	17%	113–127	L 98–123	✓correct	−11
Mar 23	at ATL	20%	113–125	L 107–146	✓correct	−27
Mar 21	at CHA	17%	108–122	L 101–124	✓correct	−9
Mar 20	vs BOS	24%	108–118	L 112–117	✓correct	+5
Mar 18	vs DEN	29%	118–126	W 125–118	✗missed	+15
Mar 16	at CHI	44%	116–118	L 107–132	✓correct	−23
Mar 13	at DET	22%	110–121	L 110–126	✓correct	−5
Mar 12	vs DAL	53%	118–117	L 112–120	✗missed	−9
Mar 10	at PHI	47%	117–118	L 129–139	✓correct	−9
Mar 9	at BKN	61%	117–113	L 115–126	✗missed	−15
Mar 7	vs LAC	42%	114–117	L 120–123	✓correct	±0
Mar 4	vs POR	42%	117–120	L 114–122	✓correct	−5
Mar 3	at MIN	26%	114–123	L 110–117	✓correct	+2
Mar 1	at IND	71%	121–113	W 125–106	✓correct	+11
Feb 27	at DAL	53%	119–118	W 124–105	✓correct	+18
Feb 25	vs GSW	47%	119–120	L 112–133	✓correct	−20
Feb 23	vs SAC	71%	123–115	L 114–123	✗missed	−17
Feb 21	at MIA	29%	114–122	L 120–136	✓correct	−8
Feb 20	vs UTA	67%	120–114	W 123–114	✓correct	+3
Feb 11	at DEN	36%	112–117	L 116–122	✓correct	−1
Feb 9	at GSW	31%	114–121	L 113–114	✓correct	+6
Feb 7	at POR	39%	116–120	L 115–122	✓correct	−3
Feb 6	at POR	36%	115–120	L 115–135	✓correct	−15
Feb 4	at SAC	53%	115–114	W 129–125	✓correct	+3
Feb 2	vs MIN	27%	111–120	W 137–128	✗missed	+18
Jan 31	vs MIN	29%	111–119	L 114–131	✓correct	−9
Jan 30	at NOP	44%	113–115	L 106–114	✓correct	−6
Jan 28	vs CHA	39%	111–115	L 97–112	✓correct	−11
Jan 26	at HOU	29%	109–117	L 99–108	✓correct	−1
Jan 23	vs NOP	67%	119–113	L 127–133	✗missed	−12
Jan 21	vs ATL	56%	117–115	L 122–124	✗missed	−4
Jan 11	vs BKN	67%	116–110	W 103–98	✓correct	−1
Jan 9	vs OKC	29%	115–123	L 116–117	✓correct	+7
Jan 7	vs PHX	42%	116–119	L 98–117	✓correct	−16
Jan 6	vs SAS	34%	115–121	W 106–105	✗missed	+7
Jan 4	at LAL	47%	118–119	L 114–120	✓correct	−5
Jan 2	at LAL	56%	118–116	L 121–128	✗missed	−9
Dec 30	vs PHI	61%	117–113	L 136–139	✗missed	−7
Dec 28	at WAS	74%	123–114	L 112–116	✗missed	−13
Dec 26	vs MIL	69%	118–111	W 125–104	✓correct	+14
Dec 23	at UTA	74%	122–113	W 137–128	✓correct	±0
Dec 22	at OKC	15%	108–123	L 103–119	✓correct	−1
Dec 20	vs WAS	85%	123–108	L 122–130	✗missed	−23
Dec 17	at MIN	29%	111–119	W 116–110	✗missed	+14
Dec 15	at LAC	56%	115–113	W 121–103	✓correct	+16
Dec 12	vs UTA	71%	120–112	L 126–130	✗missed	−12
Dec 7	vs POR	67%	119–113	W 119–96	✓correct	+17
Dec 5	vs LAC	53%	115–114	W 107–98	✓correct	+8
Dec 2	at SAS	47%	116–117	L 119–126	✓correct	−6
Nov 30	at SAC	58%	117–114	W 115–107	✓correct	+5
Nov 28	at LAC	53%	115–114	W 112–107	✓correct	+4
Nov 26	at NOP	61%	118–114	W 133–128	✓correct	+1
Nov 24	vs DEN	47%	116–117	L 115–125	✓correct	−9
Nov 22	at DAL	47%	114–115	W 102–96	✗missed	+7
Nov 20	vs SAC	47%	115–116	W 137–96	✗missed	+42
Nov 18	at SAS	31%	113–120	L 101–111	✓correct	−3
Nov 15	at CLE	26%	115–124	L 100–108	✓correct	+1
Nov 12	at BOS	29%	110–118	L 95–131	✓correct	−28
Nov 11	at NYK	31%	115–122	L 120–133	✓correct	−6
Nov 9	vs OKC	29%	115–123	L 100–114	✓correct	−6
Nov 7	vs DAL	59%	120–117	W 118–104	✓correct	+11
Nov 5	vs HOU	44%	114–116	L 109–124	✓correct	−13
Nov 3	vs DET	42%	116–119	L 106–114	✓correct	−5
Nov 2	at TOR	56%	120–118	L 104–117	✗missed	−15
Oct 31	vs LAL	53%	118–117	L 112–117	✗missed	−6
Oct 29	at PHX	58%	118–115	W 114–113	✓correct	−2
Oct 27	at GSW	36%	114–119	L 118–131	✓correct	−8
Oct 25	vs IND	44%	115–117	W 128–103	✗missed	+27
Oct 24	vs MIA	67%	120–114	L 114–146	✗missed	−38
Oct 22	vs NOP	80%	121–109	W 128–122	✓correct	−6
Apr 26 PO	vs OKC	29%	105–114	L 115–117	✓correct	+7
Apr 24 PO	vs OKC	36%	108–114	L 108–114	✓correct	±0
Apr 22 PO	at OKC	21%	108–120	L 99–118	✓correct	−7
Apr 20 PO	at OKC	21%	107–119	L 80–131	✓correct	−39
Apr 13	vs DAL	54%	117–116	W 132–97	✓correct	+34
Apr 11	at DEN	31%	115–122	L 109–117	✓correct	−1
Apr 10	vs MIN	49%	111–112	L 125–141	✓correct	−15
Apr 8	at CHA	71%	120–111	W 124–100	✓correct	+15
Apr 5	at DET	33%	115–121	W 109–103	✗missed	+12
Apr 3	at MIA	46%	113–114	W 110–108	✗missed	+3
Apr 1	vs GSW	54%	115–114	L 125–134	✗missed	−10
Mar 31	vs BOS	36%	110–116	L 103–117	✓correct	−8
Mar 29	vs LAL	67%	120–114	L 127–134	✗missed	−13
Mar 27	at OKC	19%	111–124	L 104–125	✓correct	−8
Mar 25	at UTA	73%	124–114	W 140–103	✓correct	+27
Mar 21	at LAC	33%	110–116	L 108–128	✓correct	−14
Mar 19	at POR	46%	115–116	L 99–115	✓correct	−15
Mar 17	at SAC	38%	114–118	L 122–132	✓correct	−6
Mar 15	vs MIA	67%	119–113	W 125–91	✓correct	+28
Mar 14	vs CLE	49%	119–120	L 124–133	✓correct	−8
Mar 12	vs UTA	73%	124–115	W 122–115	✓correct	−2
Mar 10	vs PHX	67%	123–117	W 120–118	✓correct	−4
Mar 9	at NOP	64%	123–117	W 107–104	✓correct	−3
Mar 7	at DAL	59%	119–115	W 122–111	✓correct	+7
Mar 5	vs OKC	49%	121–122	L 103–120	✓correct	−16
Mar 3	vs ATL	73%	125–116	L 130–132	✗missed	−11
Mar 1	vs SAS	73%	124–115	L 128–130	✗missed	−11
Feb 28	vs NYK	71%	122–114	L 113–114	✗missed	−9
Feb 25	vs PHX	77%	124–113	W 151–148	✓correct	−8
Feb 23	at CLE	33%	116–122	L 123–129	✓correct	±0
Feb 21	at ORL	51%	115–114	W 105–104	✓correct	±0
Feb 20	at IND	51%	121–120	L 113–127	✗missed	−15
Feb 12	at LAC	41%	117–120	L 114–128	✓correct	−11
Feb 11	at PHX	61%	121–116	W 119–112	✓correct	+2
Feb 8	vs OKC	67%	120–114	L 112–125	✗missed	−19
Feb 5	at TOR	69%	121–113	W 138–107	✓correct	+23
Feb 3	vs SAS	77%	125–114	W 128–109	✓correct	+8
Feb 2	at MIL	43%	122–124	W 132–119	✗missed	+15
Jan 30	vs HOU	62%	120–116	W 120–119	✓correct	−3
Jan 27	at NYK	41%	114–117	L 106–143	✓correct	−34
Jan 25	vs UTA	79%	122–110	W 125–103	✓correct	+10
Jan 24	vs NOP	77%	123–112	W 139–126	✓correct	+2
Jan 22	vs CHA	81%	122–109	W 132–120	✓correct	−1
Jan 20	vs MIN	67%	119–113	W 108–106	✓correct	−4
Jan 17	at SAS	51%	117–116	W 140–112	✓correct	+27
Jan 15	at SAS	51%	117–116	W 129–115	✓correct	+13
Jan 13	at HOU	38%	115–119	L 118–120	✓correct	+2
Jan 11	at MIN	43%	114–116	W 127–125	✗missed	+4
Jan 9	vs HOU	69%	120–113	L 115–119	✗missed	−11
Jan 6	vs DAL	54%	119–118	W 119–104	✓correct	+14
Jan 4	at GSW	51%	117–116	L 113–121	✗missed	−9
Jan 3	at SAC	46%	116–117	L 133–138	✓correct	−4
Dec 31	at PHX	54%	120–118	W 117–112	✓correct	+3
Dec 29	at OKC	29%	113–121	L 106–130	✓correct	−16
Dec 27	at NOP	75%	122–111	W 132–124	✓correct	−3
Dec 26	vs TOR	77%	123–112	W 155–126	✓correct	+18
Dec 23	vs LAC	69%	120–113	L 110–114	✗missed	−11
Dec 21	at ATL	56%	116–113	W 128–112	✓correct	+13
Dec 19	vs GSW	62%	119–115	W 144–93	✓correct	+47
Dec 15	at LAL	59%	118–114	L 110–116	✗missed	−10
Dec 13	vs BKN	81%	123–110	W 135–119	✓correct	+3
Dec 8	at WAS	79%	124–111	W 140–112	✓correct	+15
Dec 7	at BOS	23%	110–121	W 127–121	✗missed	+17
Dec 5	vs SAC	71%	121–113	W 115–110	✓correct	−3
Dec 3	at DAL	31%	114–121	L 116–121	✓correct	+2
Dec 1	vs IND	69%	122–115	W 136–121	✓correct	+8
Nov 29	vs NOP	84%	123–108	W 120–109	✓correct	−4
Nov 27	vs DET	71%	118–110	W 131–111	✓correct	+12
Nov 25	vs POR	69%	120–113	W 123–98	✓correct	+18
Nov 23	at CHI	46%	117–118	W 142–131	✗missed	+12
Nov 20	vs PHI	69%	116–109	W 117–111	✓correct	−1
Nov 19	vs DEN	62%	118–114	L 110–122	✗missed	−16
Nov 17	vs DEN	62%	120–116	W 105–90	✓correct	+11
Nov 15	at GSW	25%	111–121	L 118–123	✓correct	+5
Nov 13	at LAL	31%	115–122	L 123–128	✓correct	+2
Nov 10	at POR	43%	114–116	W 134–89	✗missed	+47
Nov 8	vs WAS	69%	122–115	W 128–104	✓correct	+17
Nov 6	vs LAL	46%	117–119	W 131–114	✗missed	+19
Nov 4	at BKN	36%	112–117	L 104–106	✓correct	+3
Nov 2	at PHI	27%	106–115	W 124–107	✗missed	+26
Oct 31	vs MIL	36%	111–117	W 122–99	✗missed	+29
Oct 30	vs BKN	54%	114–113	L 106–119	✗missed	−14
Oct 28	vs CHI	46%	115–117	L 123–126	✓correct	−1
Oct 26	vs ORL	39%	107–112	W 124–111	✗missed	+18
Oct 25	at HOU	27%	109–118	L 108–128	✓correct	−11
Oct 23	at UTA	41%	110–113	W 126–124	✗missed	+5
Apr 14	vs DEN	26%	105–120	L 111–126	✓correct	±0
Apr 12	vs LAL	25%	108–124	L 120–123	✓correct	+13
Apr 10	at CLE	28%	108–117	L 98–110	✓correct	−3
Apr 9	vs SAS	43%	109–115	L 87–102	✓correct	−9
Apr 6	vs PHI	33%	105–116	L 96–116	✓correct	−9
Apr 5	vs DET	53%	110–111	W 108–90	✗missed	+19
Apr 3	at MIL	32%	110–117	W 111–101	✗missed	+17
Apr 1	at DET	41%	109–111	W 110–108	✗missed	+4
Mar 30	at ORL	30%	102–110	L 88–118	✓correct	−22
Mar 27	vs LAL	41%	111–118	L 124–136	✓correct	−5
Mar 25	at DEN	25%	104–115	L 103–128	✓correct	−14
Mar 22	at SAS	34%	106–112	W 99–97	✗missed	+8
Mar 20	at GSW	24%	103–115	L 116–137	✓correct	−9
Mar 18	at SAC	22%	102–115	L 111–121	✓correct	+3
Mar 16	vs OKC	41%	106–113	L 112–118	✓correct	+1
Mar 13	vs CHA	57%	106–105	L 98–110	✗missed	−13
Mar 12	vs WAS	61%	113–110	W 109–97	✓correct	+9
Mar 10	at OKC	19%	105–120	L 93–124	✓correct	−16
Mar 8	vs ATL	51%	106–108	L 92–99	✓correct	−5
Mar 6	at PHI	32%	102–109	W 115–109	✗missed	+13
Mar 4	at BKN	34%	103–109	W 106–102	✗missed	+10
Mar 2	vs POR	51%	105–107	L 100–107	✓correct	−5
Mar 1	vs POR	53%	108–109	L 92–122	✓correct	−29
Feb 28	at MIN	24%	105–117	L 101–110	✓correct	+3
Feb 26	vs BKN	53%	112–113	L 86–111	✓correct	−24
Feb 23	vs LAC	49%	114–117	L 95–101	✓correct	−3
Feb 15	vs MIL	35%	107–117	W 113–110	✗missed	+13
Feb 14	vs HOU	47%	110–114	W 121–113	✗missed	+12
Feb 12	vs NOP	41%	110–117	L 87–96	✓correct	−2
Feb 10	at CHA	51%	114–111	L 106–115	✗missed	−12
Feb 8	vs CHI	47%	109–113	L 110–118	✓correct	−4
Feb 6	at NYK	28%	104–113	L 113–123	✓correct	−1
Feb 4	at BOS	30%	106–114	L 91–131	✓correct	−32
Feb 2	vs GSW	47%	107–111	L 101–121	✓correct	−16
Feb 1	vs CLE	47%	108–112	L 101–108	✓correct	−3
Jan 29	vs SAC	41%	109–116	L 94–103	✓correct	−2
Jan 28	at IND	28%	111–120	L 110–116	✓correct	+3
Jan 26	vs ORL	49%	106–109	W 107–106	✗missed	+4
Jan 24	at MIA	32%	105–112	W 105–96	✗missed	+16
Jan 22	at TOR	25%	114–125	W 108–100	✗missed	+19
Jan 20	at CHI	35%	109–114	L 96–125	✓correct	−24
Jan 18	at MIN	22%	107–120	L 103–118	✓correct	−2
Jan 15	vs GSW	43%	110–116	W 116–107	✗missed	+15
Jan 13	vs NYK	33%	110–121	L 94–106	✓correct	−1
Jan 12	vs LAC	41%	108–115	L 119–128	✓correct	−2
Jan 9	at DAL	30%	112–120	W 120–103	✗missed	+25
Jan 7	at PHX	32%	111–118	W 121–115	✗missed	+13
Jan 5	at LAL	34%	111–117	W 127–113	✗missed	+20
Jan 3	vs TOR	49%	113–116	L 111–116	✓correct	−2
Jan 2	vs SAS	65%	119–114	W 106–98	✓correct	+3
Dec 31	vs SAC	49%	114–117	L 92–123	✓correct	−28
Dec 29	at LAC	32%	112–119	L 106–117	✓correct	−4
Dec 28	at DEN	35%	111–116	L 105–142	✓correct	−32
Dec 26	at NOP	34%	113–119	W 116–115	✗missed	+7
Dec 23	at ATL	35%	114–119	W 125–119	✗missed	+11
Dec 21	vs IND	51%	114–116	W 116–103	✗missed	+15
Dec 19	at NOP	30%	112–120	W 115–113	✗missed	+10
Dec 18	at OKC	25%	109–120	L 97–116	✓correct	−8
Dec 15	vs HOU	49%	108–111	L 96–103	✓correct	−4
Dec 13	at HOU	30%	104–112	L 104–117	✓correct	−5
Dec 11	vs DAL	57%	111–110	L 113–120	✗missed	−8
Dec 8	vs MIN	47%	107–111	L 103–127	✓correct	−20
Dec 6	at DET	43%	113–114	W 116–102	✗missed	+15
Dec 2	at PHX	35%	104–109	L 109–116	✓correct	−2
Dec 1	at DAL	35%	112–117	W 108–94	✗missed	+19
Nov 29	vs UTA	57%	113–112	W 105–91	✓correct	+13
Nov 26	vs MIN	41%	106–113	L 97–119	✓correct	−15
Nov 24	vs PHX	53%	110–111	L 89–110	✓correct	−20
Nov 22	at HOU	37%	108–112	L 91–111	✓correct	−16
Nov 19	vs BOS	49%	111–114	L 100–102	✓correct	+1
Nov 18	at SAS	51%	117–114	W 120–108	✓correct	+9
Nov 14	at LAL	37%	112–116	L 107–134	✓correct	−23
Nov 12	at LAC	32%	111–118	W 105–101	✗missed	+11
Nov 10	vs UTA	63%	117–113	L 121–127	✗missed	−10
Nov 8	vs MIA	51%	110–112	L 102–108	✓correct	−4
Nov 5	at POR	51%	115–112	W 112–100	✓correct	+9
Nov 3	at POR	51%	116–113	L 113–115	✗missed	−5
Nov 1	at UTA	47%	116–115	L 109–133	✗missed	−25
Oct 30	vs DAL	65%	118–113	L 110–125	✗missed	−20
Oct 28	at WAS	47%	118–117	L 106–113	✗missed	−8
Oct 27	vs DEN	53%	110–111	L 104–108	✓correct	−3
Oct 25	vs NOP	65%	115–110	L 104–111	✗missed	−12
Apr 28 PO	at LAL	42%	109–112	L 85–125	✓correct	−37
Apr 26 PO	vs LAL	58%	112–109	W 116–99	✓correct	+14
Apr 24 PO	at LAL	30%	109–117	L 111–117	✓correct	+2
Apr 22 PO	at LAL	40%	110–114	L 101–111	✓correct	−6
Apr 19 PO	vs LAL	68%	118–111	W 103–93	✓correct	+3
Apr 16 PO	vs LAL	81%	120–106	L 112–128	✗missed	−30
Apr 9	at OKC	53%	123–122	L 100–115	✗missed	−16
Apr 7	at MIL	47%	117–118	W 137–114	✗missed	+24
Apr 5	at NOP	53%	115–114	L 131–138	✗missed	−8
Apr 4	vs POR	84%	128–112	W 119–109	✓correct	−6
Apr 2	at CHI	63%	117–112	L 107–128	✗missed	−26
Mar 31	vs LAC	63%	115–110	W 108–94	✓correct	+9
Mar 29	vs LAC	58%	113–110	L 132–141	✗missed	−12
Mar 28	vs ORL	63%	116–111	W 113–108	✓correct	±0
Mar 26	at ATL	53%	121–120	W 123–119	✓correct	+3
Mar 24	vs HOU	87%	122–104	W 151–114	✓correct	+19
Mar 22	vs HOU	84%	121–105	W 130–125	✓correct	−11
Mar 20	vs DAL	72%	116–107	W 112–108	✓correct	−5
Mar 18	vs GSW	55%	115–113	W 133–119	✓correct	+12
Mar 17	at SAS	78%	121–109	W 126–120	✓correct	−6
Mar 15	at MIA	55%	112–110	L 119–138	✗missed	−21
Mar 13	at DAL	45%	117–119	W 104–88	✗missed	+18
Mar 11	vs DAL	78%	121–109	W 112–108	✓correct	−8
Mar 9	vs GSW	60%	116–112	W 131–110	✓correct	+17
Mar 7	at LAL	47%	112–113	L 103–112	✓correct	−8
Mar 5	at LAC	47%	115–116	L 129–135	✓correct	−5
Mar 3	at DEN	37%	111–116	L 97–113	✓correct	−11
Mar 1	at HOU	76%	125–114	W 113–99	✓correct	+3
Feb 28	vs LAL	70%	117–109	W 121–109	✓correct	+4
Feb 25	vs DEN	58%	114–111	W 112–94	✓correct	+15
Feb 23	at PHI	37%	109–114	L 105–110	✓correct	±0
Feb 15	vs UTA	74%	122–112	W 117–111	✓correct	−4
Feb 12	at BOS	55%	111–109	L 109–119	✗missed	−12
Feb 10	vs MIN	53%	113–112	W 128–107	✓correct	+20
Feb 7	vs CHI	53%	115–114	W 104–89	✓correct	+14
Feb 5	vs TOR	47%	117–118	L 103–106	✓correct	−2
Feb 2	at CLE	45%	108–110	L 113–128	✓correct	−13
Feb 1	vs POR	76%	123–112	L 112–122	✗missed	−21
Jan 29	vs IND	65%	117–111	W 112–100	✓correct	+6
Jan 27	at MIN	60%	118–114	L 100–111	✗missed	−15
Jan 25	at GSW	63%	118–113	L 120–122	✗missed	−7
Jan 23	at SAC	42%	116–119	L 100–133	✓correct	−30
Jan 22	at PHX	55%	114–112	L 110–112	✗missed	−4
Jan 20	at LAL	47%	118–119	L 121–122	✓correct	±0
Jan 18	vs CLE	60%	115–111	W 115–114	✓correct	−3
Jan 16	vs PHX	68%	119–112	W 136–106	✓correct	+23
Jan 14	at IND	65%	120–114	W 130–112	✓correct	+12
Jan 11	vs SAS	80%	121–108	W 135–129	✓correct	−7
Jan 9	vs SAS	81%	120–106	W 121–113	✓correct	−6
Jan 8	vs UTA	68%	120–113	W 123–118	✓correct	−2
Jan 5	at ORL	65%	117–111	W 123–115	✓correct	+2
Jan 4	at CHA	76%	122–111	W 131–107	✓correct	+13
Jan 1	vs SAC	58%	115–112	W 118–108	✓correct	+7
Dec 31	vs NOP	63%	117–112	W 116–101	✓correct	+10
Dec 29	at TOR	68%	115–108	W 119–106	✓correct	+6
Dec 27	vs PHX	78%	118–106	L 108–125	✗missed	−29
Dec 25	at GSW	63%	113–108	L 109–123	✗missed	−19
Dec 23	at PHX	42%	109–112	W 125–100	✗missed	+28
Dec 20	at DEN	47%	116–117	L 91–105	✓correct	−13
Dec 17	at OKC	72%	119–110	L 109–115	✗missed	−15
Dec 15	vs MIL	60%	114–110	W 142–101	✓correct	+37
Dec 12	vs ATL	70%	117–109	W 128–103	✓correct	+17
Dec 9	vs DET	76%	119–108	W 114–103	✓correct	±0
Dec 7	vs OKC	65%	116–110	W 123–102	✓correct	+15
Dec 5	vs MIA	37%	108–113	W 101–93	✗missed	+13
Dec 4	at DET	70%	118–110	W 122–112	✓correct	+2
Dec 2	vs PHI	53%	109–108	W 117–109	✓correct	+7
Nov 30	at MIN	53%	114–113	L 101–109	✗missed	−9
Nov 27	at NYK	60%	115–111	W 127–123	✓correct	±0
Nov 25	vs NOP	47%	112–113	W 132–111	✗missed	+22
Nov 22	vs SAC	72%	120–111	L 109–113	✗missed	−13
Nov 20	at BKN	47%	112–113	L 115–127	✓correct	−11
Nov 18	vs OKC	68%	114–107	W 121–110	✓correct	+4
Nov 15	at NOP	47%	109–110	L 102–113	✓correct	−10
Nov 13	at WAS	60%	113–109	L 92–102	✗missed	−14
Nov 11	vs MIN	55%	112–110	W 114–103	✓correct	+9
Nov 9	at SAS	78%	121–109	W 124–122	✓correct	−10
Nov 7	vs BOS	42%	110–113	L 106–109	✓correct	±0
Nov 6	vs WAS	76%	118–107	W 103–97	✓correct	−5
Nov 4	vs CHA	63%	115–110	W 130–99	✓correct	+26
Nov 2	at POR	68%	113–106	W 111–106	✓correct	−2
Oct 31	at UTA	47%	110–111	L 105–121	✓correct	−15
Oct 29	at UTA	53%	109–108	L 123–124	✗missed	−2
Oct 27	at SAC	68%	118–111	W 125–110	✓correct	+8
Oct 24	vs BKN	60%	114–110	W 134–124	✓correct	+6
Oct 22	at DAL	53%	109–108	L 96–137	✗missed	−42
Oct 21	at HOU	72%	118–109	W 129–122	✓correct	−2
Oct 19	vs NYK	58%	111–108	W 115–112	✓correct	±0

Surprise games

All MEM surprises

Across every graded season. The percentage is the pregame chance the forecast gave the team that won.

Most unexpected MEM wins

23%MEM beat BOS127–121Dec 7, 2024-25 · forecast BOS121–110 · missed margin by 17
24%MEM beat POR124–103Oct 29, 2026-27 · forecast POR122–112 · missed margin by 31
25%MEM beat TOR108–100Jan 22, 2023-24 · forecast TOR125–114 · missed margin by 19
27%MEM beat MIN137–128Feb 2, 2025-26 · forecast MIN120–111 · missed margin by 18
27%MEM beat PHI124–107Nov 2, 2024-25 · forecast PHI115–106 · missed margin by 26

Most unexpected MEM losses

15%WAS beat MEM130–122Dec 20, 2025-26 · forecast MEM123–108 · missed margin by 23
19%LAL beat MEM128–112Apr 16, 2022-23 · playoffs · forecast MEM120–106 · missed margin by 30
22%PHX beat MEM125–108Dec 27, 2022-23 · forecast MEM118–106 · missed margin by 29
24%POR beat MEM122–112Feb 1, 2022-23 · forecast MEM123–112 · missed margin by 21
27%WAS beat MEM116–112Dec 28, 2025-26 · forecast MEM123–114 · missed margin by 13

Largest margin misses

34%UTA beat MEM147–101Apr 10, 2025-26 · forecast MEM124–118 · missed margin by 52
62%MEM beat GSW144–93Dec 19, 2024-25 · forecast MEM119–115 · missed margin by 47
43%MEM beat POR134–89Nov 10, 2024-25 · forecast POR116–114 · missed margin by 47
47%MEM beat SAC137–96Nov 20, 2025-26 · forecast SAC116–115 · missed margin by 42
47%DAL beat MEM137–96Oct 22, 2022-23 · forecast MEM109–108 · missed margin by 42

Definitions

Expected wins: The sum of the team's pregame win probabilities over the games in the sample (home: the stored home win probability; road: one minus it).
Wins vs expectation: Actual wins minus expected wins. It describes results relative to the forecasts, not why they differed.
Margin error: The team's actual margin minus its forecast margin, in points. Positive means the team did better than forecast.
Error variability: The sample standard deviation of margin errors. Higher means the forecasts for this team's games were less consistent.
Winner picked: The share of the team's games in which the forecast winner won, whichever team that was. Teams play different mixes of close and lopsided games, so this alone is not a fair measure of how hard a team is to forecast.
Average margin miss: The mean absolute margin error. This is the headline measure of how hard a team's games were for this model to forecast.
Average margin error: The mean signed margin error. Consistently positive means the model underrated the team in this sample; negative, overrated.
Brier score: The mean squared difference between the team's pregame win probability and the result (1 for a win, 0 for a loss). It rewards confident correct forecasts and penalises confident wrong ones.
Intervals and samples: Ranges are 90% bootstrap intervals (1,000 resamples of the team's games). Under 20 games no ranking is shown; 20 to 59 games is exploratory; 60 or more is roughly a full season.

More on how forecasts are made and tested: Methodology.

Upcoming

Recent results

Predictability

2026-27 (in progress)

2025-26

2024-25

2023-24

2022-23

2022-23 to 2026-27

Surprise games

Most unexpected MEM wins

Most unexpected MEM losses

Largest margin misses

Recent results the forecast got wrong

Definitions