The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Nov 2

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs

Monday, November 2, 2026 · tip-off 8:30 PM ET

UTA 1–5@SAS 4–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: UTA 18 percent, SAS 82 percent. UTA Jazz 18% proj. 110 · final 97 SAS Spurs · home 82% proj. 123 · final 119
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
UTA Utah Jazz 110 97 −13
SAS San Antonio Spurs (home) 123 119 −4

Forecast: San Antonio Spurs to win, 82% win probability, projected margin 13.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans SAS

  • Home court+2.1 SASWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+7.2 SASElo SAS 1692, UTA 1304; season margin SAS +7.9, UTA −8.9.
  • Recent form+2.8 SASLast 10 games, per 100 possessions: SAS scores 113.0 and allows 110.0; UTA scores 107.0 and allows 116.4.
  • Player availability+0.9 SASUTA without Jaren Jackson Jr. (16 ppg).

Together: SAS by 13, a 82% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

SAS is 4–2, winning by 7 a game on average (scoring 117, allowing 110). Last season they were a +8 team, which still counts for 70% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security +1.3. Their defense holds opponents to 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding +1.2.

UTA is 1–5, losing by 10 a game on average (scoring 109, allowing 119). Last season they were a −8 team, which still counts for 70% of their season margin. Their offense shoots 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −2.7. Their defense lets opponents shoot 57% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: defensive rebounding +1.4. Jaren Jackson Jr. (16 ppg) is out.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors SAS; left favors UTA.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength +7.2, Recent form +2.8, Player availability +0.9, No playoff context +0.2, Rest and schedule −0.1, giving +13.1 for SAS. -16-80+8+16 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength +7.2 Recent form +2.8 Player availability +0.9 No playoff context +0.2 Rest and schedule −0.1 Projected margin +13.1
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +13.1. The 82% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputUTASASEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13041692 +0.7
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +458 +6.5
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −8.9+7.9 +1.0
Games played this season 66 −1.0
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 107.0113.0 +1.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 116.4110.0 +1.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 102.4 +0.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 16.30.0 +0.9
Rest days 22 −0.1
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueSAS ptsUTA ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court458.0+3.78−2.73+6.51
Season scoring margin (away)-8.9+0.70−0.83+1.54
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)110.0−0.52−1.73+1.21
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)107.0−0.12−1.32+1.20
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.89−0.16+1.05
Games played (away)6.0+0.20+0.84−0.64
Season scoring margin (home)7.9−1.02−0.47−0.55
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)116.4+0.56+0.04+0.52
Games played (home)6.0−0.26+0.12−0.39
Elo rating (home)1691.9+0.22−0.16+0.38
Elo rating (away)1303.9+0.25−0.07+0.31
Home series wins0.0+0.25+0.02+0.23
Rotation points missing (away)16.3+0.11+0.30−0.19
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)113.0−0.38−0.27−0.11
Rest days (home)2.0−0.01+0.05−0.06
Combined pace, last 10102.4+4.09+4.05+0.04
Back-to-back (home)0+0.01−0.01+0.03
Rest days (away)2.0+0.01+0.03−0.02
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Series pressure0.0+0.03+0.02+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingUTA1304SAS16927.2 pts toward SAS

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

UTA1304

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1282 → started this one at 1337
  2. This season's 6 games: −32.6
  • L@MEM103–123−12.8
  • WNOP120–119+4.4
  • LLAL123–132−4.5
  • LMEM105–110−7.8
  • LSAS111–117−1.9
  • LPOR90–112−10.0

SAS1692

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1771 → started this one at 1703
  2. This season's 6 games: −11.4
  • LOKC104–116−15.8
  • LHOU110–114−11.1
  • W@DAL122–106+5.7
  • WSAC130–103+2.6
  • W@UTA117–111+1.9
  • WMIN121–111+5.3
Season scoring marginUTA−8.9SAS+7.9no effect on the margin

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

UTA−8.9

Scores 108.7, allows 118.8 over 6 games: −10.2 a game.

30% this season (−10.2) + 70% last season (−8.4) = −8.9

SAS+7.9

Scores 117.3, allows 110.2 over 6 games: +7.2 a game.

30% this season (+7.2) + 70% last season (+8.2) = +7.9

Offensive rating, last 10UTA107.0SAS113.01.1 pts toward SAS

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

UTA107.0scored, −7.6 vs league

FactorUTALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.2%54.5%−3.5
Turnovers (TOV%)14.1%12.2%−2.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.7%26.1%+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2060.210−0.1
Everything else−2.0

SAS113.0scored, −1.6 vs league

FactorSASLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.2%54.5%−3.5
Turnovers (TOV%)11.3%12.2%+1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.6%26.1%−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2140.210+0.1
Everything else+1.0
Defensive rating, last 10UTA116.4SAS110.01.7 pts toward SAS

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

UTA116.4allowed, +1.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.6%54.5%−3.1
Turnovers (TOV%)12.2%12.2%−0.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.9%26.1%+1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2310.210−0.6
Everything else+0.5

SAS110.0allowed, −4.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.0%54.5%+3.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.2%12.2%+0.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.4%26.1%+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1940.210+0.5
Everything else−0.8
Pace, last 10average 102.4no effect on the margin

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

UTA 106.5 and SAS 98.4 → average 102.4 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingUTA16.3SAS0.00.9 pts toward SAS

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

UTA16.3pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Jaren Jackson Jr.16.226.14

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

SAS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-02 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestUTA2 daysSAS2 days0.1 pts toward UTA

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

UTA2days

Last played Oct 31 against POR.

SAS2days

Last played Oct 31 against MIN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

UTA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 31POR90–11229-7811-4021-2619788.2108.7102.5
Oct 28SAS111–11739-9215-3918-191912102.8108.397.8
Oct 26MEM105–11038-9210-3319-251314104.0110.0100.5
Oct 25LAL123–13246-9510-3521-271720120.6130.7101.5
Oct 23NOP120–11941-8413-3525-331814117.6116.7102.0
Oct 21@MEM103–12335-7511-3222-3318599.0118.3104.0
Apr 12@LAL107–13141-947-3418-271614101.9123.6105.5
Apr 10MEM147–10162-11015-358-17168121.583.5121.0
Apr 7@NOP137–15653-10410-3221-24167112.3127.9122.0
Apr 5@OKC111–14643-10014-3911-151614101.8136.4108.0

SAS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 31MIN121–11143-8710-2725-311516121.0111.0100.0
Oct 28@UTA117–11144-10112-3817-211115108.3102.897.8
Oct 27SAC130–10349-9017-3715-19139130.0103.0100.0
Oct 24@DAL122–10648-10115-4211-161215118.4103.9102.5
Oct 23HOU110–11440-8712-3718-25159112.2117.597.5
Oct 20OKC104–11636-9310-3722-251310102.0113.7102.0
Jun 10@NYK106–10736-8617-4317-201112112.8115.193.5
Jun 8@NYK115–11139-8412-3425-3286123.7119.493.0
Jun 5NYK104–10537-7811-2919-27165105.1108.298.0
Jun 3NYK95–10532-8911-4320-25131496.0105.099.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
82%
pregame chance the forecast gave SAS, the winner
SAS was the forecast favorite
9 pts
margin miss
forecast +13, actual +22 for SAS
141st
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
67th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.20 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statUTASAS
Final score97119
Field goals34–96 · 35.4%42–91 · 46.2%
Three-pointers12–34 · 35.3%11–32 · 34.4%
Free throws17–22 · 77.3%24–30 · 80.0%
Rebounds5353
Assists1627
Turnovers1112
Steals96
Blocks77

How the model does with these teams over time: Utah Jazz · San Antonio Spurs

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (SAS)+13+22+9
Total points233216−17
UTA points11097−13
SAS points123119−4

Recent form before this game

Utah Jazz

DateOpponentResult
Oct 31 vs POR L 90–112
Oct 28 vs SAS L 111–117
Oct 26 vs MEM L 105–110
Oct 25 vs LAL L 123–132
Oct 23 vs NOP W 120–119

San Antonio Spurs

DateOpponentResult
Oct 31 vs MIN W 121–111
Oct 28 at UTA W 117–111
Oct 27 vs SAC W 130–103
Oct 24 at DAL W 122–106
Oct 23 vs HOU L 110–114

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Oct 28 2026-27 SAS at UTA SAS 117 – 111 UTA
Jan 22 2025-26 SAS at UTA SAS 126 – 109 UTA
Jan 19 2025-26 UTA at SAS UTA 110 – 123 SAS
Dec 27 2025-26 UTA at SAS UTA 127 – 114 SAS
Nov 26 2024-25 SAS at UTA SAS 128 – 115 UTA