The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Apr 14

2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Charlotte Hornets at Cleveland Cavaliers

Sunday, April 14, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

CHA 5–2@CLE 3–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: CHA 27 percent, CLE 73 percent. CHA Hornets 27% proj. 105 · final 120 CLE Cavaliers · home 73% proj. 115 · final 110
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
CHA Charlotte Hornets 105 120 +15
CLE Cleveland Cavaliers (home) 115 110 −5

Forecast: Cleveland Cavaliers to win, 73% win probability, projected margin 10.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputCHACLE
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 12981532
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +304
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −10.5+2.6
Games played this season 8181
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 112.4116.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 122.2117.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 96.8
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 75.959.1
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCHA1298CLE1532

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CHA1298

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1388 → started this one at 1416
  2. First 71 games: −129.0
  3. Last 10 games: +11.2
  • WCLE118–111+15.2
  • LGSW97–115−6.1
  • LLAC118–130−5.4
  • LBOS104–118−1.8
  • LPOR86–89−6.8
  • WORL124–115+17.4
  • LOKC118–121−2.0
  • LDAL104–130−5.7
  • W@ATL115–114+8.2
  • L@BOS98–131−1.8

CLE1532

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1565 → started this one at 1549
  2. First 71 games: +3.6
  3. Last 10 games: −20.2
  • WCHA115–92+3.7
  • L@CHA111–118−15.2
  • WPHI117–114+3.0
  • L@DEN101–130−10.9
  • W@UTA129–113+9.8
  • L@PHX101–122−10.0
  • L@LAL97–116−10.4
  • L@LAC118–120−3.3
  • WMEM110–98+3.5
  • WIND129–120+9.6
Season scoring marginCHA−10.5CLE+2.6

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CHA−10.5

Scores 106.4, allows 116.9 over 81 games: −10.5 a game.

CLE+2.6

Scores 112.7, allows 110.1 over 81 games: +2.6 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10CHA112.4CLE116.3

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.6).

CHA112.4scored, −2.2 vs league

FactorCHALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.9%54.8%+3.2
Turnovers (TOV%)12.5%11.6%−1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)14.1%24.1%−4.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1970.194+0.1
Everything else+0.3

CLE116.3scored, +1.7 vs league

FactorCLELeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.2%54.8%+3.6
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%11.6%−1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.3%24.1%−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1720.194−0.7
Everything else+0.6
Defensive rating, last 10CHA122.2CLE117.2

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.6).

CHA122.2allowed, +7.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)58.6%54.8%−5.8
Turnovers (TOV%)11.0%11.6%−0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)30.9%24.1%−3.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1550.194+1.1
Everything else+1.0

CLE117.2allowed, +2.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)58.4%54.8%−5.4
Turnovers (TOV%)13.4%11.6%+2.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.8%24.1%+1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1860.194+0.2
Everything else−1.0
Pace, last 10average 96.8

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CHA 96.3 and CLE 97.3 → average 96.8 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.1)

Rotation points missingCHA75.9CLE59.1

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CHA75.9pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Brandon Miller20.733.510
Miles Bridges20.036.39
Grant Williams15.432.59
Davis Bertans10.421.65
Nick Richards9.322.56

Source: official injury report, 2024-04-14 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

CLE59.1pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Donovan Mitchell20.235.16
Darius Garland15.734.010
Caris LeVert15.130.39
Sam Merrill8.117.68

Source: official injury report, 2024-04-14 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestCHA2 daysCLE2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CHA2days

Last played Apr 12 against BOS.

CLE2days

Last played Apr 12 against IND.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CHA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 12@BOS98–13132-7615-3519-2219498.0129.7100.5
Apr 10@ATL115–11440-7914-3621-22135117.3116.398.0
Apr 9DAL104–13039-8910-3216-21118103.0130.0100.5
Apr 7OKC118–12145-8317-4011-14187121.6126.096.5
Apr 5ORL124–11543-7215-3023-23184129.2118.696.5
Apr 3POR86–8932-785-3117-229090.593.795.0
Apr 1BOS104–11841-9113-379-1165110.6126.993.5
Mar 31LAC118–13044-8823-527-1192125.5139.893.5
Mar 29GSW97–11534-8412-4617-241110101.0121.195.5
Mar 27CLE118–11144-7613-3317-22158126.9119.493.0

CLE

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 12IND129–12050-9513-3216-23911126.5116.5102.5
Apr 10MEM110–9837-8215-3721-291312113.4101.097.0
Apr 7@LAC118–12042-8811-3023-27117118.0120.0100.0
Apr 6@LAL97–11639-9011-358-12181196.0116.0100.5
Apr 3@PHX101–12239-837-2616-19156102.0123.299.0
Apr 2@UTA129–11346-8516-3921-24138129.0113.0100.0
Mar 31@DEN101–13038-828-2517-21154104.1132.797.5
Mar 29PHI117–11445-8216-3711-13133128.6123.991.5
Mar 27@CHA111–11842-8519-448-14139119.4126.993.0
Mar 25CHA115–9246-8617-416-10129126.498.992.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games
27%
pregame chance the forecast gave CHA, the winner
the forecast favored CLE
20 pts
margin miss
forecast +10, actual −10 for CLE
16th
most surprising result of 2023-24
of 1,312 graded games
188th
largest margin miss of 2023-24
outcome surprise 1.32 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statCHACLE
Final score120110
Field goals46–91 · 50.5%44–93 · 47.3%
Three-pointers19–40 · 47.5%16–33 · 48.5%
Free throws9–11 · 81.8%6–9 · 66.7%
Rebounds4743
Assists3630
Turnovers914
Steals104
Blocks91

How the model does with these teams over time: Charlotte Hornets · Cleveland Cavaliers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (CLE)+10−10−20
Total points220230+10
CHA points105120+15
CLE points115110−5

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
CHA24333132–120
CLE33253814–110

Recent form before this game

Charlotte Hornets

DateOpponentResult
Apr 12 at BOS L 98–131
Apr 10 at ATL W 115–114
Apr 9 vs DAL L 104–130
Apr 7 vs OKC L 118–121
Apr 5 vs ORL W 124–115

Cleveland Cavaliers

DateOpponentResult
Apr 12 vs IND W 129–120
Apr 10 vs MEM W 110–98
Apr 7 at LAC L 118–120
Apr 6 at LAL L 97–116
Apr 3 at PHX L 101–122

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 27 2023-24 CLE at CHA CLE 111 – 118 CHA
Mar 25 2023-24 CHA at CLE CHA 92 – 115 CLE
Apr 9 2022-23 CHA at CLE CHA 106 – 95 CLE
Mar 14 2022-23 CLE at CHA CLE 120 – 104 CHA
Mar 12 2022-23 CLE at CHA CLE 114 – 108 CHA