2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Charlotte Hornets at Sacramento Kings

Tuesday, January 2, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

CHA 1–1@SAC 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
CHA Charlotte Hornets	108	111	+3
SAC Sacramento Kings (home)	123	104	−19

Forecast: Sacramento Kings to win, 81% win probability, projected margin 15.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	CHA	SAC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1310	1537
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+297
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−11.1	+0.8
Games played this season	31	31
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	104.3	118.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	123.5	116.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	9.0	0.0
Rest days	1	2
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCHA1310SAC1537

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CHA1310

Ended last season at 1388 → started this one at 1416
First 21 games: −54.1
Last 10 games: −51.8

L@MIA104–115−3.2
LNOP107–112−4.4
LPHI82–135−12.9
L@TOR99–114−5.7
L@IND113–144−9.0
LDEN95–102−2.9
L@LAC104–113−2.2
L@LAL112–133−5.0
L@PHX119–133−4.1
L@DEN93–111−2.4

SAC1537

Ended last season at 1531 → started this one at 1523
First 21 games: +17.0
Last 10 games: −3.0

L@LAC99–119−12.4
WOKC128–123+6.9
WUTA125–104+6.4
WWAS143–131+3.7
LBOS119–144−15.6
WPHX120–105+9.2
LMIN98–110−11.1
L@POR113–130−22.2
W@ATL117–110+10.1
W@MEM123–92+22.0

Season scoring marginCHA−11.1SAC+0.8

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CHA−11.1

Scores 110.0, allows 121.1 over 31 games: −11.1 a game.

SAC+0.8

Scores 117.5, allows 116.8 over 31 games: +0.8 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10CHA104.3SAC118.4

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.9).

CHA104.3scored, −10.6 vs league

Factor	CHA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.7%	54.6%	−5.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.6%	11.7%	+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	18.4%	24.7%	−2.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.147	0.205	−1.7
Everything else			−0.3

SAC118.4scored, +3.5 vs league

Factor	SAC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.7%	54.6%	+4.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.5%	11.7%	+1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	18.5%	24.7%	−2.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.163	0.205	−1.2
Everything else			+1.0

Defensive rating, last 10CHA123.5SAC116.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.9).

CHA123.5allowed, +8.6 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	60.5%	54.6%	−9.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.8%	11.7%	+1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.4%	24.7%	−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.226	0.205	−0.6
Everything else			+0.3

SAC116.5allowed, +1.6 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.1%	54.6%	+0.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.4%	11.7%	−1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.5%	24.7%	−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.219	0.205	−0.4
Everything else			+0.7

Pace, last 10average 99.3

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CHA 98.4 and SAC 100.2 → average 99.3 (league 2023-24 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingCHA9.0SAC0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CHA9.0pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Gordon Hayward	9.0	26.3	3

Source: official injury report, 2024-01-02 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

SAC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-01-02 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestCHA1 daysSAC2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CHA1day, back-to-back

Last played Jan 1 against DEN.

SAC2days

Last played Dec 31 against MEM.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CHA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 1	@DEN	93–111	36-86	10-26	11-16	12	6	97.9	116.8	95.0
Dec 29	@PHX	119–133	44-92	23-46	8-8	6	8	125.3	143.0	94.0
Dec 28	@LAL	112–133	40-85	15-33	17-28	19	8	106.7	125.5	105.5
Dec 26	@LAC	104–113	43-93	6-29	12-16	11	8	105.1	114.1	99.0
Dec 23	DEN	95–102	34-88	8-28	19-23	17	13	97.9	104.1	97.5
Dec 20	@IND	113–144	45-95	8-31	15-19	10	16	115.3	145.5	98.5
Dec 18	@TOR	99–114	39-89	8-32	13-13	12	6	101.0	118.8	97.0
Dec 16	PHI	82–135	33-91	7-35	9-11	11	4	82.0	137.8	99.0
Dec 15	NOP	107–112	41-92	9-31	16-21	8	4	108.1	112.0	99.5
Dec 13	@MIA	104–115	41-77	12-31	10-11	21	3	104.0	117.3	99.0

SAC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Dec 31	@MEM	123–92	47-92	16-33	13-17	12	4	123.0	92.0	100.0
Dec 29	@ATL	117–110	46-89	17-45	8-15	12	4	117.0	110.0	100.0
Dec 26	@POR	113–130	45-93	10-42	13-16	10	11	117.7	134.0	96.5
Dec 23	MIN	98–110	37-85	8-33	16-21	11	8	102.1	113.4	96.5
Dec 22	PHX	120–105	44-83	12-38	20-26	12	7	122.4	106.1	98.5
Dec 20	BOS	119–144	43-91	21-44	12-23	7	12	124.0	151.6	95.5
Dec 18	WAS	143–131	53-100	17-43	20-26	7	5	134.9	124.8	105.5
Dec 16	UTA	125–104	46-85	22-45	11-15	14	6	127.6	105.1	98.5
Dec 14	OKC	128–123	47-95	18-45	16-21	17	9	118.5	112.8	108.5
Dec 12	@LAC	99–119	36-86	10-37	17-24	14	5	97.1	115.5	102.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games

19%

pregame chance the forecast gave CHA, the winner

the forecast favored SAC

22 pts

margin miss

forecast +15, actual −7 for SAC

5th

most surprising result of 2023-24

of 1,312 graded games

150th

largest margin miss of 2023-24

outcome surprise 1.64 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	CHA	SAC
Final score	111	104
Field goals	42–82 · 51.2%	40–92 · 43.5%
Three-pointers	12–34 · 35.3%	14–36 · 38.9%
Free throws	15–19 · 78.9%	10–17 · 58.8%
Rebounds	35	48
Assists	23	23
Turnovers	14	20
Steals	8	8
Blocks	10	2

How the model does with these teams over time: Charlotte Hornets · Sacramento Kings

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (SAC)	+15	−7	−22
Total points	231	215	−16
CHA points	108	111	+3
SAC points	123	104	−19

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
CHA	25	20	30	36	–	111
SAC	21	29	28	26	–	104

Recent form before this game