2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets

Thursday, November 30, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

CHA 0–0@BKN 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
CHA Charlotte Hornets	106	129	+23
BKN Brooklyn Nets (home)	118	128	+10

Forecast: Brooklyn Nets to win, 76% win probability, projected margin 12.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	CHA	BKN
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1359	1517
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+228
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−8.5	+1.2
Games played this season	16	17
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	110.5	115.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	121.6	113.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	98.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	39.7	7.4
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCHA1359BKN1517

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CHA1359

Ended last season at 1388 → started this one at 1416
First 6 games: −28.9
Last 10 games: −27.6

LWAS116–132−15.9
W@WAS124–117+13.0
L@NYK107–129−5.4
LMIA105–111−4.7
LMIL99–130−15.1
LNYK108–122−6.6
WBOS121–118+11.5
WWAS117–114+4.7
L@ORL117–130−4.1
L@NYK91–115−5.0

BKN1517

Ended last season at 1485 → started this one at 1489
First 7 games: +1.8
Last 10 games: +26.9

WLAC100–93+7.2
L@BOS107–121−4.9
WWAS102–94+5.1
WORL124–104+11.5
L@MIA115–122−4.8
LPHI99–121−14.9
L@ATL145–147−3.3
WMIA112–97+16.1
WCHI118–109+5.8
WTOR115–103+9.1

Season scoring marginCHA−8.5BKN+1.2

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CHA−8.5

Scores 112.7, allows 121.8 over 16 games: −9.1 a game.

80% this season (−9.1) + 20% last season (−6.2) = −8.5

BKN+1.2

Scores 115.3, allows 113.9 over 17 games: +1.4 a game.

85% this season (+1.4) + 15% last season (+0.3) = +1.2

Offensive rating, last 10CHA110.5BKN115.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 113.6).

CHA110.5scored, −3.1 vs league

Factor	CHA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.1%	54.1%	−1.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.8%	12.1%	−1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.9%	24.7%	+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.169	0.204	−1.0
Everything else			−0.2

BKN115.6scored, +2.0 vs league

Factor	BKN	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.1%	54.1%	+1.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.2%	12.1%	−0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.3%	24.7%	+1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.183	0.204	−0.6
Everything else			+0.1

Defensive rating, last 10CHA121.6BKN113.0

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 113.6).

CHA121.6allowed, +8.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.4%	54.1%	−5.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.5%	12.1%	−2.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.5%	24.7%	+0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.202	0.204	+0.1
Everything else			−1.4

BKN113.0allowed, −0.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.3%	54.1%	+4.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	9.8%	12.1%	−3.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.6%	24.7%	+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.189	0.204	+0.4
Everything else			−0.9

Pace, last 10average 98.2

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CHA 99.1 and BKN 97.3 → average 98.2 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.9)

Rotation points missingCHA39.7BKN7.4

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CHA39.7pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
LaMelo Ball	29.7	34.7	9
Nick Richards	10.0	17.5	5

Source: official injury report, 2023-11-30 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

BKN7.4pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Dennis Smith Jr.	7.4	21.3	5

Source: official injury report, 2023-11-30 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestCHA2 daysBKN2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CHA2days

Last played Nov 28 against NYK.

BKN2days

Last played Nov 28 against TOR.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CHA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 28	@NYK	91–115	37-89	13-31	4-7	17	13	95.8	119.8	95.5
Nov 26	@ORL	117–130	44-83	13-30	16-25	18	5	110.4	123.8	105.5
Nov 22	WAS	117–114	43-91	16-37	15-21	12	11	117.0	112.9	100.5
Nov 20	BOS	121–118	46-104	13-39	16-17	13	17	113.1	108.3	97.8
Nov 18	NYK	108–122	40-82	17-35	11-13	13	4	112.5	127.1	96.0
Nov 17	MIL	99–130	37-91	6-26	19-22	12	9	96.1	126.2	103.0
Nov 14	MIA	105–111	36-81	15-32	18-22	18	13	111.7	115.6	95.0
Nov 12	@NYK	107–129	44-94	12-35	7-11	12	15	113.8	138.7	93.5
Nov 10	@WAS	124–117	50-110	6-28	18-28	9	28	120.4	115.8	102.0
Nov 8	WAS	116–132	41-79	8-25	26-35	20	11	113.7	128.2	102.5

BKN

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 28	TOR	115–103	40-89	13-38	22-26	15	13	115.0	104.0	99.5
Nov 26	CHI	118–109	41-83	25-53	11-15	9	8	128.3	118.5	92.0
Nov 25	MIA	112–97	39-78	14-36	20-23	11	8	117.9	101.0	95.5
Nov 22	@ATL	145–147	55-113	15-35	20-24	16	22	125.0	126.7	105.1
Nov 19	PHI	99–121	38-81	11-28	12-16	15	9	103.1	127.4	95.5
Nov 16	@MIA	115–122	40-85	14-36	21-27	14	10	125.0	131.2	92.5
Nov 14	ORL	124–104	46-85	19-39	13-20	15	13	130.5	109.5	95.0
Nov 12	WAS	102–94	37-98	12-49	16-20	18	20	99.0	91.3	103.0
Nov 10	@BOS	107–121	38-85	15-37	16-18	10	9	109.2	126.0	97.0
Nov 8	LAC	100–93	37-92	15-41	11-13	14	14	103.1	94.9	97.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games

24%

pregame chance the forecast gave CHA, the winner

the forecast favored BKN

13 pts

margin miss

forecast +12, actual −1 for BKN

9th

most surprising result of 2023-24

of 1,312 graded games

427th

largest margin miss of 2023-24

outcome surprise 1.44 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	CHA	BKN
Final score	129	128
Field goals	46–91 · 50.5%	52–105 · 49.5%
Three-pointers	21–36 · 58.3%	14–36 · 38.9%
Free throws	16–16 · 100.0%	10–15 · 66.7%
Rebounds	41	52
Assists	30	21
Turnovers	9	9
Steals	6	6
Blocks	7	4

How the model does with these teams over time: Charlotte Hornets · Brooklyn Nets

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (BKN)	+12	−1	−13
Total points	224	257	+33
CHA points	106	129	+23
BKN points	118	128	+10

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
CHA	31	42	29	27	–	129
BKN	37	34	35	22	–	128

Recent form before this game