2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets

Friday, December 2, 2022 · tip-off time not recorded

WAS 0–1@CHA 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
WAS Washington Wizards	117	116	−1
CHA Charlotte Hornets (home)	109	117	+8

Forecast: Washington Wizards to win, 70% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	WAS	CHA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1464	1439
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+45
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−1.1	−6.2
Games played this season	22	21
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	113.2	106.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	112.2	114.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	99.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	10.3	40.9
Rest days	2	4
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingWAS1464CHA1439

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

WAS1464

Ended last season at 1417 → started this one at 1438
First 12 games: −0.4
Last 10 games: +26.5

WUTA121–112+12.8
WMEM102–92+13.6
LOKC120–121−5.8
WMIA107–106+4.5
WCHA106–102+4.2
L@MIA105–113−5.1
L@MIA107–110−3.0
L@BOS121–130−2.6
WMIN142–127+12.6
L@BKN107–113−4.7

CHA1439

Ended last season at 1544 → started this one at 1533
First 11 games: −60.1
Last 10 games: −33.8

LPOR95–105−16.9
L@MIA112–117−3.4
L@MIA115–132−6.9
W@ORL112–105+9.2
LIND113–125−15.7
L@CLE122–132−5.1
L@WAS102–106−4.2
WPHI107–101+9.9
WMIN110–108+5.3
L@BOS105–140−6.0

Season scoring marginWAS−1.1CHA−6.2

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

WAS−1.1

Scores 110.4, allows 111.5 over 22 games: −1.1 a game.

CHA−6.2

Scores 109.2, allows 115.4 over 21 games: −6.2 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10WAS113.2CHA106.1

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 112.1).

WAS113.2scored, +1.1 vs league

Factor	WAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.6%	54.0%	+0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.2%	12.7%	+2.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.5%	23.9%	−1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.186	0.209	−0.7
Everything else			−0.3

CHA106.1scored, −6.0 vs league

Factor	CHA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.5%	54.0%	−5.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.9%	12.7%	−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.7%	23.9%	+1.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.172	0.209	−1.1
Everything else			−1.1

Defensive rating, last 10WAS112.2CHA114.2

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 112.1).

WAS112.2allowed, +0.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.1%	54.0%	+2.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.3%	12.7%	−2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.0%	23.9%	−0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.226	0.209	−0.5
Everything else			−0.4

CHA114.2allowed, +2.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.6%	54.0%	−2.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.7%	12.7%	+1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.4%	23.9%	−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.208	0.209	+0.0
Everything else			−0.8

Pace, last 10average 99.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

WAS 99.6 and CHA 99.8 → average 99.7 (league 2022-23 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingWAS10.3CHA40.9

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

WAS10.3pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Rui Hachimura	10.2	22.5	4

Source: official injury report, 2022-12-02 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

CHA40.9pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
LaMelo Ball	19.3	32.8	3
Gordon Hayward	13.3	35.9	3
Dennis Smith Jr.	8.2	25.6	4

Source: official injury report, 2022-12-02 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestWAS2 daysCHA4 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

WAS2days

Last played Nov 30 against BKN.

CHA4days

Last played Nov 28 against BOS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

WAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 30	@BKN	107–113	39-89	6-24	23-34	14	14	107.0	111.9	100.5
Nov 28	MIN	142–127	52-91	15-31	23-27	7	7	136.5	123.3	103.5
Nov 27	@BOS	121–130	44-82	7-28	26-33	4	6	128.7	138.3	94.0
Nov 25	@MIA	107–110	40-93	11-39	16-20	12	13	109.2	113.4	97.5
Nov 23	@MIA	105–113	42-89	10-38	11-19	14	7	106.1	113.0	99.5
Nov 20	CHA	106–102	40-93	13-34	13-18	17	14	105.0	100.0	101.5
Nov 18	MIA	107–106	41-96	15-46	10-14	15	8	99.1	98.1	97.8
Nov 16	OKC	120–121	44-86	17-34	15-17	19	11	118.8	119.8	101.0
Nov 13	MEM	102–92	36-86	19-40	11-21	15	9	102.0	92.9	99.5
Nov 12	UTA	121–112	44-88	16-36	17-20	9	6	119.8	110.9	101.0

CHA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 28	@BOS	105–140	42-86	11-29	10-15	20	13	105.0	140.0	100.0
Nov 25	MIN	110–108	40-89	8-25	22-32	17	15	100.9	100.0	108.5
Nov 23	PHI	107–101	44-92	6-23	13-21	15	11	104.9	100.0	101.5
Nov 20	@WAS	102–106	39-100	8-32	16-23	13	15	100.0	105.0	101.5
Nov 18	@CLE	122–132	44-110	14-44	20-24	14	17	105.2	113.8	96.0
Nov 16	IND	113–125	43-94	12-33	15-18	17	14	107.6	120.2	104.5
Nov 14	@ORL	112–105	42-88	7-35	21-24	12	14	116.7	110.5	95.5
Nov 12	@MIA	115–132	46-90	9-31	14-16	12	4	112.7	128.2	102.5
Nov 10	@MIA	112–117	43-88	14-39	12-20	20	8	103.7	110.4	96.9
Nov 9	POR	95–105	34-91	10-40	17-24	11	20	104.4	114.1	91.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games

30%

pregame chance the forecast gave CHA, the winner

the forecast favored WAS

9 pts

margin miss

forecast −8, actual +1 for CHA

69th

most surprising result of 2022-23

of 1,314 graded games

596th

largest margin miss of 2022-23

outcome surprise 1.20 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	WAS	CHA
Final score	116	117
Field goals	39–86 · 45.3%	40–95 · 42.1%
Three-pointers	12–33 · 36.4%	12–29 · 41.4%
Free throws	26–35 · 74.3%	25–31 · 80.6%
Rebounds	56	45
Assists	23	25
Turnovers	14	4
Steals	3	6
Blocks	9	3

How the model does with these teams over time: Washington Wizards · Charlotte Hornets

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (CHA)	−8	+1	+9
Total points	226	233	+7
WAS points	117	116	−1
CHA points	109	117	+8

Recent form before this game