2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Charlotte Hornets at Sacramento Kings

Monday, February 24, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

CHA 4–1@SAC 2–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
CHA Charlotte Hornets	108	88	−20
SAC Sacramento Kings (home)	117	130	+13

Forecast: Sacramento Kings to win, 73% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	CHA	SAC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1286	1484
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+269
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−6.4	+0.3
Games played this season	55	56
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	104.2	113.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	116.1	122.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	98.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	13.8	0.0
Rest days	2	3
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCHA1286SAC1484

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CHA1286

Ended last season at 1321 → started this one at 1366
First 45 games: −45.6
Last 10 games: −34.7

LDEN104–107−2.2
LWAS114–124−17.4
LMIL102–112−5.9
WSAS117–116+5.4
L@DET102–112−3.1
L@BKN89–97−5.0
L@ORL86–102−5.9
W@LAL100–97+13.8
L@DEN115–129−1.7
L@POR88–141−12.7

SAC1484

Ended last season at 1540 → started this one at 1530
First 46 games: +26.2
Last 10 games: −71.8

L@PHI104–117−13.5
L@OKC110–144−7.3
W@MIN116–114+7.6
LORL111–130−29.4
L@POR102–108−7.2
WNOP123–118+2.4
W@DAL129–128+5.8
W@NOP119–111+5.8
L@NOP133–140−12.4
LGSW108–132−23.6

Season scoring marginCHA−6.4SAC+0.3

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CHA−6.4

Scores 106.0, allows 112.3 over 55 games: −6.4 a game.

SAC+0.3

Scores 116.6, allows 116.3 over 56 games: +0.3 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10CHA104.2SAC113.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.2).

CHA104.2scored, −9.0 vs league

Factor	CHA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	47.9%	54.2%	−9.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.4%	12.2%	+1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	20.3%	25.0%	−2.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.178	0.194	−0.5
Everything else			+1.9

SAC113.5scored, +0.3 vs league

Factor	SAC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.2%	54.2%	−1.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.1%	12.2%	+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.2%	25.0%	+1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.203	0.194	+0.3
Everything else			−0.1

Defensive rating, last 10CHA116.1SAC122.4

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.2).

CHA116.1allowed, +2.9 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.6%	54.2%	−0.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.9%	12.2%	−1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	32.0%	25.0%	−3.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.163	0.194	+0.9
Everything else			+1.7

SAC122.4allowed, +9.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.4%	54.2%	−6.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	9.4%	12.2%	−3.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.6%	25.0%	+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.176	0.194	+0.5
Everything else			−0.5

Pace, last 10average 98.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CHA 97.8 and SAC 99.6 → average 98.7 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingCHA13.8SAC0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CHA13.8pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Mark Williams	13.8	27.9	5

Source: official injury report, 2025-02-24 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

SAC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-02-24 17:30 ET. 6 rotation players.

RestCHA2 daysSAC3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CHA2days

Last played Feb 22 against POR.

SAC3days

Last played Feb 21 against GSW.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CHA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Feb 22	@POR	88–141	34-98	5-32	15-21	15	12	83.8	134.3	105.0
Feb 20	@DEN	115–129	43-99	15-37	14-17	10	14	113.9	126.5	101.5
Feb 19	@LAL	100–97	33-91	18-53	16-17	17	6	98.0	96.0	101.5
Feb 12	@ORL	86–102	32-81	8-26	14-15	12	1	92.5	109.7	93.0
Feb 10	@BKN	89–97	32-78	6-31	19-28	17	9	95.7	103.2	93.5
Feb 9	@DET	102–112	34-78	15-32	19-23	14	5	109.7	121.7	92.5
Feb 7	SAS	117–116	47-101	17-38	6-6	11	11	121.9	119.6	96.5
Feb 5	MIL	102–112	38-88	11-34	15-20	8	7	109.7	121.7	92.5
Feb 3	WAS	114–124	39-89	11-29	25-28	10	9	112.9	120.4	102.0
Feb 1	DEN	104–107	41-95	9-26	13-17	12	13	104.0	108.1	99.5

SAC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Feb 21	GSW	108–132	40-79	11-32	17-18	21	11	112.5	136.1	96.5
Feb 13	@NOP	133–140	49-112	17-47	18-21	14	19	117.7	125.0	101.9
Feb 12	@NOP	119–111	41-87	16-45	21-29	11	11	121.4	114.4	97.5
Feb 10	@DAL	129–128	53-96	9-26	14-19	20	13	117.3	115.3	100.1
Feb 8	NOP	123–118	43-91	11-41	26-33	18	11	110.8	106.3	111.0
Feb 6	@POR	102–108	37-88	10-30	18-22	10	11	104.1	111.3	97.5
Feb 5	ORL	111–130	40-80	10-27	21-28	17	13	115.6	135.4	96.0
Feb 3	@MIN	116–114	45-92	10-24	16-20	10	10	120.8	121.3	95.0
Feb 1	@OKC	110–144	40-100	11-44	19-26	7	8	104.8	135.8	105.5
Jan 29	@PHI	104–117	40-90	10-41	14-17	12	11	109.5	123.2	95.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games

73%

pregame chance the forecast gave SAC, the winner

SAC was the forecast favorite

33 pts

margin miss

forecast +9, actual +42 for SAC

1054th

most surprising result of 2024-25

of 1,309 graded games

29th

largest margin miss of 2024-25

outcome surprise 0.31 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	CHA	SAC
Final score	88	130
Field goals	30–85 · 35.3%	47–87 · 54.0%
Three-pointers	10–40 · 25.0%	20–38 · 52.6%
Free throws	18–24 · 75.0%	16–18 · 88.9%
Rebounds	37	49
Assists	24	30
Turnovers	19	18
Steals	14	12
Blocks	4	4

How the model does with these teams over time: Charlotte Hornets · Sacramento Kings

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (SAC)	+9	+42	+33
Total points	225	218	−7
CHA points	108	88	−20
SAC points	117	130	+13

Recent form before this game