2025-26 · Regular Season · Final
Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets
Friday, March 6, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET
MIA 3–3@CHA 8–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA Miami Heat | 110 | 128 | +18 |
| CHA Charlotte Hornets (home) | 118 | 120 | +2 |
Forecast: Charlotte Hornets to win, 71% win probability, projected margin 8.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | MIA | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1546 | 1647 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +171 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | +3.4 | +3.8 |
| Games played this season | 63 | 63 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 118.9 | 121.7 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 107.0 | 108.3 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 99.6 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 34.1 | 0.0 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | Yes | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingMIA1546CHA1647
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
MIA1546
- Ended last season at 1462 → started this one at 1472
- First 53 games: +31.9
- Last 10 games: +42.9
- W@WAS132–101+13.3
- LUTA111–115−13.2
- W@NOP123–111+9.7
- W@ATL128–97+27.0
- WMEM136–120+6.3
- L@MIL117–128−11.8
- L@PHI117–124−7.1
- WHOU115–105+10.7
- WBKN124–98+4.8
- WBKN126–110+3.2
CHA1647
- Ended last season at 1237 → started this one at 1303
- First 53 games: +295.4
- Last 10 games: +48.8
- LDET104–110−8.9
- WATL110–107+2.6
- LHOU101–105−8.1
- LCLE113–118−7.5
- W@WAS129–112+6.3
- W@CHI131–99+13.4
- W@IND133–109+8.3
- WPOR109–93+6.1
- WDAL117–90+4.9
- W@BOS118–89+31.7
Season scoring marginMIA+3.4CHA+3.8
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
MIA+3.4
Scores 120.0, allows 116.6 over 63 games: +3.4 a game.
CHA+3.8
Scores 116.1, allows 112.3 over 63 games: +3.8 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10MIA118.9CHA121.7
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.4).
MIA118.9scored, +4.5 vs league
| Factor | MIA | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 55.1% | 54.4% | +1.0 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.1% | 12.2% | +1.6 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.1% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.219 | 0.209 | +0.3 | |
| Everything else | +1.6 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 5 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
CHA121.7scored, +7.4 vs league
| Factor | CHA | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 56.6% | 54.4% | +3.3 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.6% | 12.2% | −0.5 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.1% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.189 | 0.209 | −0.6 | |
| Everything else | +5.2 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 5 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Defensive rating, last 10MIA107.0CHA108.3
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.4).
MIA107.0allowed, −7.4 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 50.5% | 54.4% | +5.8 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.1% | 12.2% | −0.2 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.1% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.176 | 0.209 | +1.0 | |
| Everything else | +0.7 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 5 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
CHA108.3allowed, −6.1 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 51.1% | 54.4% | +5.0 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.5% | 12.2% | +0.4 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.1% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.230 | 0.209 | −0.6 | |
| Everything else | +1.3 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 5 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Pace, last 10average 99.6
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
MIA 103.5 and CHA 95.6 → average 99.6 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.2)
Rotation points missingMIA34.1CHA0.0
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
MIA34.1pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norman Powell | 18.0 | 23.3 | 5 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 16.1 | 28.9 | 9 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-03-06 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.
CHA0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2026-03-06 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.
RestMIA1 daysCHA2 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
MIA1day, back-to-back
Last played Mar 5 against BKN.
CHA2days
Last played Mar 4 against BOS.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
MIA
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5 | BKN | 126–110 | 48-91 | 9-27 | 21-24 | 12 | 12 | 123.5 | 106.8 | 102.5 |
| Mar 3 | BKN | 124–98 | 45-91 | 13-36 | 21-24 | 12 | 14 | 122.8 | 98.0 | 100.5 |
| Feb 28 | HOU | 115–105 | 45-90 | 11-31 | 14-20 | 13 | 14 | 117.3 | 106.1 | 98.5 |
| Feb 26 | @PHI | 117–124 | 40-87 | 17-40 | 20-26 | 14 | 10 | 111.4 | 119.2 | 104.5 |
| Feb 24 | @MIL | 117–128 | 40-94 | 16-48 | 21-27 | 16 | 14 | 110.4 | 121.9 | 105.5 |
| Feb 21 | MEM | 136–120 | 49-95 | 13-36 | 25-33 | 18 | – | 127.1 | 110.1 | 108.0 |
| Feb 20 | @ATL | 128–97 | 52-100 | 13-35 | 11-14 | 8 | – | 124.3 | 94.2 | 103.0 |
| Feb 11 | @NOP | 123–111 | 42-102 | 14-47 | 25-33 | 8 | – | 119.4 | 107.8 | 103.1 |
| Feb 9 | UTA | 111–115 | 33-79 | 15-45 | 30-44 | 14 | – | 106.7 | 110.6 | 104.0 |
| Feb 8 | @WAS | 132–101 | 49-104 | 21-47 | 13-15 | 16 | – | 125.7 | 95.3 | 105.5 |
CHA
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4 | @BOS | 118–89 | 41-89 | 19-49 | 17-21 | 4 | 11 | 131.1 | 96.7 | 91.0 |
| Mar 3 | DAL | 117–90 | 42-88 | 20-51 | 13-19 | 14 | 13 | 120.6 | 90.9 | 98.0 |
| Feb 28 | POR | 109–93 | 38-91 | 16-42 | 17-25 | 16 | 20 | 112.4 | 96.9 | 96.5 |
| Feb 26 | @IND | 133–109 | 48-86 | 22-46 | 15-19 | 16 | 11 | 135.7 | 110.1 | 98.5 |
| Feb 24 | @CHI | 131–99 | 49-95 | 25-57 | 8-9 | 16 | 14 | 131.0 | 100.0 | 99.5 |
| Feb 22 | @WAS | 129–112 | 43-87 | 25-46 | 18-25 | 12 | – | 135.8 | 119.1 | 94.5 |
| Feb 20 | CLE | 113–118 | 36-92 | 20-56 | 21-22 | 14 | – | 122.8 | 129.7 | 91.5 |
| Feb 19 | HOU | 101–105 | 36-84 | 14-42 | 15-18 | 16 | – | 107.4 | 111.7 | 94.0 |
| Feb 11 | ATL | 110–107 | 33-88 | 19-51 | 25-29 | 15 | – | 110.0 | 108.1 | 99.5 |
| Feb 9 | DET | 104–110 | 34-82 | 19-47 | 17-17 | 18 | – | 110.6 | 119.6 | 93.0 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2025-26 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | MIA | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 128 | 120 |
| Field goals | 45–97 · 46.4% | 41–96 · 42.7% |
| Three-pointers | 18–38 · 47.4% | 19–52 · 36.5% |
| Free throws | 20–25 · 80.0% | 19–20 · 95.0% |
| Rebounds | 44 | 48 |
| Assists | 31 | 24 |
| Turnovers | 6 | 12 |
| Steals | 7 | 5 |
| Blocks | 5 | 9 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Miami Heat · Charlotte Hornets
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (CHA) | +8 | −8 | −16 |
| Total points | 228 | 248 | +20 |
| MIA points | 110 | 128 | +18 |
| CHA points | 118 | 120 | +2 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 2025-26 | CHA at MIA | CHA 108 – 126 MIA |
| Oct 28 2025-26 | CHA at MIA | CHA 117 – 144 MIA |
| Mar 23 2024-25 | CHA at MIA | CHA 105 – 122 MIA |
| Mar 10 2024-25 | CHA at MIA | CHA 105 – 102 MIA |
| Nov 27 2024-25 | MIA at CHA | MIA 98 – 94 CHA |