The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 28

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons

Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

CHA 3–1@DET 3–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: CHA 44 percent, DET 56 percent. CHA Hornets 44% proj. 109 · final 89 DET Pistons · home 56% proj. 111 · final 97
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
CHA Charlotte Hornets 109 89 −20
DET Detroit Pistons (home) 111 97 −14

Forecast: Detroit Pistons to win, 56% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans DET

  • Home court+2.1 DETWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+1.1 DETElo DET 1631, CHA 1571; season margin DET +6.9, CHA +2.5.
  • Recent form+1.1 CHALast 10 games, per 100 possessions: DET scores 113.3 and allows 112.4; CHA scores 113.9 and allows 112.8.
  • Rest and schedule+0.5 CHADET 1 days of rest, CHA 2. DET on the second night of a back-to-back.

Together: DET by 2, a 56% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

DET is 3–1, winning by 6 a game on average (scoring 113, allowing 107). Last season they were a +7 team, which still counts for 80% of their season margin. Their offense rebounds 32% of its own misses (league 26%), which alone adds about 2.8 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security −1.7, shooting −1.5. Their defense holds opponents to 52% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone adds about 4 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: free throws allowed −1.7, defensive rebounding −1.2. Jalen Duren (13 ppg) is out. They're on the second night of a back-to-back.

CHA is 3–1, losing by 7 a game on average (scoring 104, allowing 111). Last season they were a +5 team, which still counts for 80% of their season margin. Their offense rebounds 33% of its own misses (league 26%), which alone adds about 3.0 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting −2.1, getting to the line −1.6. Their defense allows 15 free throws per 100 opponent shots (league 21), which alone adds about 1.6 points per 100 possessions.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors DET; left favors CHA.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength +1.1, Recent form −1.1, Rest and schedule −0.5, Player availability −0.3, No playoff context +0.2, giving +1.6 for DET. -4-20+2+4 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength +1.1 Recent form −1.1 Rest and schedule −0.5 Player availability −0.3 No playoff context +0.2 Projected margin +1.6
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin +1.6. The 56% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputCHADETEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15711631 +0.1
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +130 +1.3
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +2.5+6.9 +0.5
Games played this season 44 −0.7
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 113.9113.3 −0.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 112.8112.4 +0.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 96.4 −1.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.013.0 −0.3
Rest days 21 −0.3
Second night of a back-to-back NoYes −0.2
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueDET ptsCHA ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court130.0+0.60−0.67+1.27
Combined pace, last 1096.4−3.80−2.58−1.22
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.23+0.55−0.78
Games played (away)4.0+0.22+0.86−0.64
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)112.4−0.44−0.96+0.52
Rotation points missing (home)13.0+0.56+0.04+0.52
Season scoring margin (home)6.9+0.08−0.36+0.43
Rest days (home)1.0−0.25+0.02−0.27
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)113.3−0.22−0.00−0.22
Back-to-back (home)1−0.17+0.03−0.20
Home series wins0.0+0.24+0.05+0.20
Elo rating (home)1631.4−0.01−0.17+0.15
Games played (home)4.0+0.04+0.14−0.10
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)113.9−0.06+0.03−0.09
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)112.8−0.14−0.07−0.06
Season scoring margin (away)2.5+0.12+0.08+0.04
Series pressure0.0+0.06+0.03+0.03
Elo rating (away)1571.4−0.02+0.01−0.03
Rest days (away)2.0−0.01+0.01−0.02
Elimination game0±0.00−0.00+0.00
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCHA1571DET16311.4 pts toward DET

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CHA1571

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1649 → started this one at 1611
  2. This season's 4 games: −40.1
  • W@BKN110–103+3.0
  • LATL81–128−48.4
  • WMIA115–110+3.7
  • WWAS110–103+1.6

DET1631

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1646 → started this one at 1609
  2. This season's 4 games: +22.2
  • WBOS121–113+6.7
  • W@MIA128–111+12.1
  • W@PHI106–93+11.9
  • L@NYK97–111−8.5
Season scoring marginCHA+2.5DET+6.90.3 pts toward CHA

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CHA+2.5

Scores 104.0, allows 111.0 over 4 games: −7.0 a game.

20% this season (−7.0) + 80% last season (+4.8) = +2.5

DET+6.9

Scores 113.0, allows 107.0 over 4 games: +6.0 a game.

20% this season (+6.0) + 80% last season (+7.2) = +6.9

Offensive rating, last 10CHA113.9DET113.30.3 pts toward CHA

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

CHA113.9scored, −0.7 vs league

FactorCHALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.1%54.5%−2.1
Turnovers (TOV%)13.2%12.2%−1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)32.7%26.1%+3.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1560.210−1.6
Everything else+1.5

DET113.3scored, −1.3 vs league

FactorDETLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.5%54.5%−1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)13.4%12.2%−1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)32.3%26.1%+2.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1950.210−0.4
Everything else−0.4
Defensive rating, last 10CHA112.8DET112.40.5 pts toward DET

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

CHA112.8allowed, −1.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.5%54.5%−0.0
Turnovers (TOV%)12.4%12.2%+0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.5%26.1%−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1550.210+1.6
Everything else+0.0

DET112.4allowed, −2.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.7%54.5%+4.2
Turnovers (TOV%)12.6%12.2%+0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)28.8%26.1%−1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2680.210−1.7
Everything else+0.2
Pace, last 10average 96.41.2 pts toward CHA

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CHA 97.1 and DET 95.7 → average 96.4 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingCHA0.0DET13.00.3 pts toward CHA

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CHA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-28 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

DET13.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Jalen Duren13.019.12

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-28 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestCHA2 daysDET1 days0.5 pts toward CHA

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CHA2days

Last played Oct 26 against WAS.

DET1day, back-to-back

Last played Oct 27 against NYK.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CHA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 26WAS110–10342-9712-3914-171120114.6108.495.5
Oct 24MIA115–11038-8816-4323-251610113.9107.8101.5
Oct 23ATL81–12830-8711-5110-12251981.0128.0100.0
Oct 21@BKN110–10341-9315-4813-152015107.8102.0101.5
Apr 12@NYK110–9639-8519-5213-171712118.3102.193.5
Apr 10DET100–11834-8813-4719-231514104.2124.295.5
Apr 7@BOS102–11338-8816-4910-131214112.1122.891.5
Apr 5@MIN122–10845-9219-4513-151516124.5111.397.5
Apr 3IND129–10846-9624-4913-15912130.3109.199.0
Apr 2PHX127–10748-9318-4913-151011132.3112.695.5

DET

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Oct 27@NYK97–11137-879-3714-241415100.0114.497.0
Oct 25@PHI106–9338-8714-3416-251515110.497.995.5
Oct 23@MIA128–11147-8918-3816-201912125.5107.8102.5
Oct 20BOS121–11339-8615-4028-321714119.8113.0100.5
May 17CLE94–12530-8512-3922-29141094.0125.0100.0
May 15@CLE115–9443-8216-3613-191713122.3100.094.0
May 13CLE113–11742-9511-3318-201015116.5118.288.8
May 11@CLE103–11242-8310-239-121811110.8120.493.0
May 9@CLE109–11641-919-2518-221517114.7119.696.0
May 7CLE107–9739-8014-2815-201012118.9107.890.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
56%
pregame chance the forecast gave DET, the winner
DET was the forecast favorite
6 pts
margin miss
forecast +2, actual +8 for DET
61st
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
94th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.58 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statCHADET
Final score8997
Field goals31–71 · 43.7%34–76 · 44.7%
Three-pointers12–35 · 34.3%13–33 · 39.4%
Free throws15–19 · 78.9%16–20 · 80.0%
Rebounds4533
Assists1726
Turnovers2313
Steals713
Blocks53

How the model does with these teams over time: Charlotte Hornets · Detroit Pistons

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (DET)+2+8+6
Total points220186−34
CHA points10989−20
DET points11197−14

Recent form before this game

Charlotte Hornets

DateOpponentResult
Oct 26 vs WAS W 110–103
Oct 24 vs MIA W 115–110
Oct 23 vs ATL L 81–128
Oct 21 at BKN W 110–103
Apr 12 at NYK W 110–96

Detroit Pistons

DateOpponentResult
Oct 27 at NYK L 97–111
Oct 25 at PHI W 106–93
Oct 23 at MIA W 128–111
Oct 20 vs BOS W 121–113
May 17 vs CLE L 94–125

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 10 2025-26 DET at CHA DET 118 – 100 CHA
Feb 9 2025-26 DET at CHA DET 110 – 104 CHA
Dec 20 2025-26 CHA at DET CHA 86 – 112 DET
Feb 9 2024-25 CHA at DET CHA 102 – 112 DET
Jan 3 2024-25 CHA at DET CHA 94 – 98 DET