The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Feb 19

2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Charlotte Hornets at Los Angeles Lakers

Wednesday, February 19, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

CHA 3–0@LAL 2–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: CHA 18 percent, LAL 82 percent. CHA Hornets 18% proj. 103 · final 100 LAL Lakers · home 82% proj. 117 · final 97
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
CHA Charlotte Hornets 103 100 −3
LAL Los Angeles Lakers (home) 117 97 −20

Forecast: Los Angeles Lakers to win, 82% win probability, projected margin 14.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputCHALAL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 12861571
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +355
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −5.5+0.8
Games played this season 5252
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 105.5121.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 115.2110.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 97.8
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 12.00.0
Rest days 55
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCHA1286LAL1571

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CHA1286

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1321 → started this one at 1366
  2. First 42 games: −12.8
  3. Last 10 games: −66.9
  • LLAL107–112−4.6
  • LBKN83–104−23.7
  • LLAC104–112−4.5
  • LDEN104–107−2.2
  • LWAS114–124−17.4
  • LMIL102–112−5.9
  • WSAS117–116+5.4
  • L@DET102–112−3.1
  • L@BKN89–97−5.0
  • L@ORL86–102−5.9

LAL1571

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1570 → started this one at 1553
  2. First 42 games: −37.7
  3. Last 10 games: +56.1
  • W@GSW118–108+11.9
  • W@CHA112–107+4.6
  • L@PHI104–118−13.6
  • W@WAS134–96+9.0
  • W@NYK128–112+23.8
  • W@LAC122–97+24.3
  • WGSW120–112+4.2
  • WIND124–117+6.7
  • WUTA132–113+4.1
  • L@UTA119–131−18.9
Season scoring marginCHA−5.5LAL+0.8

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CHA−5.5

Scores 106.2, allows 111.8 over 52 games: −5.5 a game.

LAL+0.8

Scores 113.3, allows 112.5 over 52 games: +0.8 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10CHA105.5LAL121.1

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.2).

CHA105.5scored, −7.7 vs league

FactorCHALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)48.5%54.2%−8.7
Turnovers (TOV%)11.5%12.2%+1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.5%25.0%−2.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1820.194−0.3
Everything else+2.3

LAL121.1scored, +7.9 vs league

FactorLALLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)60.7%54.2%+9.9
Turnovers (TOV%)13.1%12.2%−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.5%25.0%−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2220.194+0.8
Everything else−0.9
Defensive rating, last 10CHA115.2LAL110.6

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.2).

CHA115.2allowed, +2.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.7%54.2%+0.7
Turnovers (TOV%)10.4%12.2%−2.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)31.5%25.0%−2.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1770.194+0.5
Everything else+2.1

LAL110.6allowed, −2.6 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)50.8%54.2%+5.2
Turnovers (TOV%)10.9%12.2%−1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.3%25.0%+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2230.194−0.8
Everything else−0.2
Pace, last 10average 97.8

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CHA 95.3 and LAL 100.3 → average 97.8 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingCHA12.0LAL0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CHA12.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Josh Okogie12.021.93

Source: official injury report, 2025-02-19 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

LAL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-02-19 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestCHA5 daysLAL5 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CHA5days

Last played Feb 12 against ORL (7 days, capped at 5).

LAL5days

Last played Feb 12 against UTA (7 days, capped at 5).

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CHA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Feb 12@ORL86–10232-818-2614-1512192.5109.793.0
Feb 10@BKN89–9732-786-3119-2817995.7103.293.5
Feb 9@DET102–11234-7815-3219-23145109.7121.792.5
Feb 7SAS117–11647-10117-386-61111121.9119.696.5
Feb 5MIL102–11238-8811-3415-2087109.7121.792.5
Feb 3WAS114–12439-8911-2925-28109112.9120.4102.0
Feb 1DEN104–10741-959-2613-171213104.0108.199.5
Jan 31LAC104–11242-967-3013-15910105.1115.598.0
Jan 29BKN83–10428-8310-3517-2517992.2114.390.5
Jan 27LAL107–11239-8714-3615-18147111.5117.995.5

LAL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Feb 12@UTA119–13141-9220-5017-30149113.3126.0104.5
Feb 10UTA132–11350-9215-4217-181110124.5105.6106.5
Feb 8IND124–11746-8811-3321-23149122.8115.8101.0
Feb 6GSW120–11239-7813-3529-36137117.6107.7103.0
Feb 4@LAC122–9745-8118-3714-23148127.1101.096.0
Feb 1@NYK128–11247-8119-4015-18153129.3114.398.5
Jan 30@WAS134–9649-9015-3221-22118132.793.2102.0
Jan 28@PHI104–11837-7210-3320-23224104.0118.0100.0
Jan 27@CHA112–10744-866-2818-241611117.9111.595.5
Jan 25@GSW118–10847-8610-2914-171210121.6112.596.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games
18%
pregame chance the forecast gave CHA, the winner
the forecast favored LAL
17 pts
margin miss
forecast +14, actual −3 for LAL
4th
most surprising result of 2024-25
of 1,309 graded games
269th
largest margin miss of 2024-25
outcome surprise 1.73 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statCHALAL
Final score10097
Field goals33–91 · 36.3%37–90 · 41.1%
Three-pointers18–53 · 34.0%15–51 · 29.4%
Free throws16–17 · 94.1%8–12 · 66.7%
Rebounds4750
Assists2029
Turnovers1718
Steals127
Blocks44

How the model does with these teams over time: Charlotte Hornets · Los Angeles Lakers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (LAL)+14−3−17
Total points220197−23
CHA points103100−3
LAL points11797−20

Recent form before this game

Charlotte Hornets

DateOpponentResult
Feb 12 at ORL L 86–102
Feb 10 at BKN L 89–97
Feb 9 at DET L 102–112
Feb 7 vs SAS W 117–116
Feb 5 vs MIL L 102–112

Los Angeles Lakers

DateOpponentResult
Feb 12 at UTA L 119–131
Feb 10 vs UTA W 132–113
Feb 8 vs IND W 124–117
Feb 6 vs GSW W 120–112
Feb 4 at LAC W 122–97

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Jan 27 2024-25 LAL at CHA LAL 112 – 107 CHA
Feb 5 2023-24 LAL at CHA LAL 124 – 118 CHA
Dec 28 2023-24 CHA at LAL CHA 112 – 133 LAL
Jan 2 2022-23 LAL at CHA LAL 121 – 115 CHA
Dec 23 2022-23 CHA at LAL CHA 134 – 130 LAL