The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Oct 21

2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets

Wednesday, October 21, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET

CHA 0–0@BKN 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: CHA 74 percent, BKN 26 percent. CHA Hornets 74% proj. 118 · final 110 BKN Nets · home 26% proj. 109 · final 103
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
CHA Charlotte Hornets 118 110 −8
BKN Brooklyn Nets (home) 109 103 −6

Forecast: Charlotte Hornets to win, 74% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

Why the model leans CHA

  • Home court+2.1 BKNWhat the model gives the home team on an average night.
  • Team strength+8.4 CHAElo BKN 1315, CHA 1611; season margin BKN −10.0, CHA +4.8.
  • Recent form+2.6 CHALast 10 games, per 100 possessions: BKN scores 104.8 and allows 118.4; CHA scores 120.1 and allows 113.7.

Together: CHA by 9, a 74% chance. Smaller inputs make up the rest; the chart below has all of them.

Team-by-team notes from the box scores

CHA hasn't played this season yet; last season they were a +5 team. Their offense rebounds 33% of its own misses (league 26%), which alone adds about 3 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: ball security +1.0. Their defense forces turnovers on 10.8% of opponent possessions (league 12.2%), which alone costs about 2.0 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: free throws allowed +1.4, defensive rebounding +1.3.

BKN hasn't played this season yet; last season they were a −10 team. Their offense rebounds 13% of its own misses (league 26%), which alone costs about 6 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: shooting −5. Their defense lets opponents shoot 60% eFG against a 55% league average, which alone costs about 9 points per 100 possessions. Smaller factors: forcing turnovers +3.

Written from the numbers in Built from the box scores, using only values that rebuild exactly.

How the projected margin was built

Points of home margin. Right of zero favors BKN; left favors CHA.

Projected margin built from a baseline of +2.1 plus Team strength −8.4, Recent form −2.6, No playoff context +0.3, Player availability +0.3, Rest and schedule +0.1, giving −8.2 for BKN. -12-60+6+12 Model baseline +2.1 Team strength −8.4 Recent form −2.6 No playoff context +0.3 Player availability +0.3 Rest and schedule +0.1 Projected margin −8.2
Baseline +2.1 plus the bars equals the projected margin −8.2. The 74% win probability comes from a separate curve on that margin. This shows how the model used its inputs, not what will decide the game. How it's calculated
Every input the model received, with its effect
InputCHABKNEffect, pts
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16111315 −0.6
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −226 −5.4
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +4.8−10.0 −2.0
Games played this season 00 −0.4
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 120.1104.8 −1.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 113.7118.4 −0.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 96.6 −0.4
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0 +0.3
Rest days 55 +0.1
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo +0.0
All 21 raw inputs, in points for each team
InputValueBKN ptsCHA ptsMargin
Elo gap incl. home court-226.4−1.46+3.93−5.39
Offensive rating, last 10 (home)104.8−1.58−0.22−1.36
Defensive rating, last 10 (home)118.4+0.43+1.59−1.16
Season scoring margin (home)-10.0−0.51+0.52−1.03
Elo rating (home)1315.0−0.15+0.80−0.94
Season scoring margin (away)4.8−0.73+0.20−0.93
Rotation points missing (home)0.0+0.86−0.07+0.93
Rotation points missing (away)0.0−0.15+0.52−0.67
Defensive rating, last 10 (away)113.7+0.54−0.02+0.56
Games played (away)0.0+0.10+0.65−0.55
Combined pace, last 1096.6−3.92−3.53−0.40
Elo rating (away)1611.4+0.30−0.00+0.30
Offensive rating, last 10 (away)120.1+0.19+0.46−0.27
Home series wins0.0+0.32+0.10+0.23
Games played (home)0.0+0.72+0.55+0.17
Rest days (home)5.0+0.04−0.06+0.10
Series pressure0.0+0.06−0.02+0.09
Back-to-back (home)0+0.04−0.00+0.04
Elimination game0±0.00−0.01+0.01
Rest days (away)5.0−0.05−0.06+0.01
Back-to-back (away)0±0.00±0.00±0.00
Baseline (average output)114.4112.4+2.10

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCHA1611BKN13156.0 pts toward CHA

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CHA1611

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1649 → started this one at 1611
  2. No games played yet this season.

BKN1315

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1253 → started this one at 1315
  2. No games played yet this season.
Season scoring marginCHA+4.8BKN−10.02.3 pts toward CHA

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CHA+4.8

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (+4.8) = +4.8

BKN−10.0

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (−10.0) = −10.0

Offensive rating, last 10CHA120.1BKN104.81.6 pts toward CHA

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

CHA120.1scored, +5.5 vs league

FactorCHALeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.0%54.5%+0.7
Turnovers (TOV%)11.5%12.2%+1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)33.0%26.1%+3.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1810.210−0.8
Everything else+1.4

BKN104.8scored, −9.8 vs league

FactorBKNLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.4%54.5%−4.7
Turnovers (TOV%)12.3%12.2%−0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)12.7%26.1%−6.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2050.210−0.1
Everything else+1.1
Defensive rating, last 10CHA113.7BKN118.40.6 pts toward CHA

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26: 114.6).

CHA113.7allowed, −0.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.8%54.5%−0.3
Turnovers (TOV%)10.8%12.2%−2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.2%26.1%+1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1630.210+1.4
Everything else+0.6

BKN118.4allowed, +3.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)60.4%54.5%−8.9
Turnovers (TOV%)14.3%12.2%+3.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.7%26.1%−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2340.210−0.7
Everything else+3.0
Pace, last 10average 96.60.4 pts toward CHA

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CHA 94.3 and BKN 98.8 → average 96.6 (league 2025-26: 100.0)

Rotation points missingCHA0.0BKN0.00.3 pts toward BKN

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CHA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-21 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

BKN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-10-21 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestCHA5 daysBKN5 days0.1 pts toward BKN

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CHA5days

Last played Apr 12 against NYK (192 days, capped at 5).

BKN5days

Last played Apr 12 against TOR (192 days, capped at 5).

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CHA

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 12@NYK110–9639-8519-5213-171712118.3102.193.5
Apr 10DET100–11834-8813-4719-231514104.2124.295.5
Apr 7@BOS102–11338-8816-4910-131214112.1122.891.5
Apr 5@MIN122–10845-9219-4513-151516124.5111.397.5
Apr 3IND129–10846-9624-4913-15912130.3109.199.0
Apr 2PHX127–10748-9318-4913-151011132.3112.695.5
Mar 31@BKN117–8641-8712-3923-251113123.290.595.0
Mar 29BOS99–11436-8312-4315-191110108.8125.391.0
Mar 28PHI114–11836-9617-5525-32921117.5122.996.5
Mar 26NYK114–10341-7816-4116-201612129.5115.788.5

BKN

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 12@TOR101–13635-869-3422-29156101.0136.0100.0
Apr 10@MIL108–12538-8418-4514-1675112.5130.296.0
Apr 9IND94–12337-968-3812-1910390.4118.3104.0
Apr 7MIL96–9033-759-2621-23100103.296.893.0
Apr 5WAS121–11543-8815-4020-23115122.2116.299.0
Apr 3ATL107–14139-7912-2817-20181101.9135.6104.5
Mar 31CHA86–11728-737-3523-2714490.5123.295.0
Mar 29SAC116–9942-8517-4115-20158122.1103.195.5
Mar 27@LAL99–11640-9610-399-151411100.0118.498.5
Mar 25@GSW106–10939-8112-3316-21174103.9105.8102.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games
74%
pregame chance the forecast gave CHA, the winner
CHA was the forecast favorite
2 pts
margin miss
forecast −9, actual −7 for BKN
120th
most surprising result of 2026-27
of 146 graded games so far
125th
largest margin miss of 2026-27
outcome surprise 0.30 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statCHABKN
Final score110103
Field goals41–93 · 44.1%36–80 · 45.0%
Three-pointers15–48 · 31.3%12–31 · 38.7%
Free throws13–15 · 86.7%19–25 · 76.0%
Rebounds4438
Assists2622
Turnovers2022
Steals97
Blocks45

How the model does with these teams over time: Charlotte Hornets · Brooklyn Nets

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (BKN)−9−7+2
Total points227213−14
CHA points118110−8
BKN points109103−6

Recent form before this game

Charlotte Hornets

DateOpponentResult
Apr 12 at NYK W 110–96
Apr 10 vs DET L 100–118
Apr 7 at BOS L 102–113
Apr 5 at MIN W 122–108
Apr 3 vs IND W 129–108

Brooklyn Nets

DateOpponentResult
Apr 12 at TOR L 101–136
Apr 10 at MIL L 108–125
Apr 9 vs IND L 94–123
Apr 7 vs MIL W 96–90
Apr 5 vs WAS W 121–115

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 31 2025-26 CHA at BKN CHA 117 – 86 BKN
Dec 1 2025-26 CHA at BKN CHA 103 – 116 BKN
Oct 22 2025-26 BKN at CHA BKN 117 – 136 CHA
Mar 8 2024-25 BKN at CHA BKN 102 – 105 CHA
Feb 10 2024-25 CHA at BKN CHA 89 – 97 BKN